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Quantitative analysis for management Twelfth Edition Badri
Barry Render
Charles Harwood Professor of Management Science
Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College
Quantitative Analysis
for Management
Twelfth Edition
Ralph M. Stair, Jr.
Professor of Information and Management Sciences,
Florida State University
Michael E. Hanna
Professor of Decision Sciences,
University of Houston–Clear Lake
Trevor S. Hale
Associate Professor of Management Sciences,
University of Houston–Downtown
T. N. BADRI
Associate Professor at Rajalakshmi School of Business
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 1 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:05
To my wife and sons—BR
To Lila and Leslie—RMS
To Zoe and Gigi—MEH
To Valerie and Lauren—TSH
To S. R. Nagapaul, a Great Teacher of Mathematics—TNB
Copyright © 2017 Pearson India Education Services Pvt. Ltd
Published by Pearson India Education Services Pvt. Ltd, CIN: U72200TN2005PTC057128, formerly known as TutorVista Global
Pvt. Ltd, licensee of Pearson Education in South Asia.
No part of this eBook may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the publisher’s prior written consent.
This eBook may or may not include all assets that were part of the print version. The publisher reserves the right to remove any
material in this eBook at any time.
ISBN 978-93-325-6858-7
eISBN 978-93-325-7869-2
Head Office: A-8 (A), 7th Floor, Knowledge Boulevard, Sector 62, Noida 201 309, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Registered Office: 4th Floor, Software Block, Elnet Software City, TS-140, Block 2 & 9, Rajiv Gandhi Salai, Taramani, Chennai
600 113, Tamil Nadu, India.
Fax: 080-30461003, Phone: 080-30461060
www.pearson.co.in, Email: companysecretary.india@pearson.com
iii
About the Authors
Barry Render is Professor Emeritus, the Charles Harwood Distinguished Professor of Operations
Management, Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College, Winter Park, Florida. He
received his B.S. in Mathematics and Physics at Roosevelt University and his M.S. in Operations
Research and his Ph.D. in Quantitative Analysis at the University of Cincinnati. He previously taught
at George Washington University, the University of New Orleans, Boston University, and George
Mason University, where he held the Mason Foundation Professorship in Decision Sciences and was
Chair of the Decision Science Department. Dr. Render has also worked in the aerospace industry for
General Electric, McDonnell Douglas, and NASA.
Dr. Render has coauthored 10 textbooks published by Pearson, including Managerial Decision
Modeling with Spreadsheets, Operations Management, Principles of Operations Management,
Service Management, Introduction to Management Science, and Cases and Readings in Management
Science. More than 100 articles of Dr. Render on a variety of management topics have appeared
in Decision Sciences, Production and Operations Management, Interfaces, Information and
Management, Journal of Management Information Systems, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,
IIE Solutions, and Operations Management Review, among others.
Dr. Render has been honored as an AACSB Fellow and was named twice as a Senior Fulbright
Scholar. He was Vice President of the Decision Science Institute Southeast Region and served
as software review editor for Decision Line for six years and as Editor of the New York Times
Operations Management special issues for five years. From 1984 to 1993, Dr. Render was President
of Management Service Associates of Virginia, Inc., whose technology clients included the FBI,
the U.S. Navy, Fairfax County, Virginia, and C&P Telephone. He is currently Consulting Editor to
Financial Times Press.
Dr. Render has taught operations management courses at Rollins College for MBA and
Executive MBA programs. He has received that school’s Welsh Award as leading professor and was
selected by Roosevelt University as the 1996 recipient of the St. Claire DrakeAward for Outstanding
Scholarship. In 2005, Dr. Render received the Rollins College MBA Student Award for Best Overall
Course, and in 2009 was named Professor of the Year by full-time MBA students.
Ralph Stair is Professor Emeritus at Florida State University. He earned a B.S. in chemical engi-
neering from Purdue University and an M.B.A. from Tulane University. Under the guidance of Ken
Ramsing and Alan Eliason, he received a Ph.D. in operations management from the University of
Oregon. He has taught at the University of Oregon, the University of Washington, the University of
New Orleans, and Florida State University.
He has taught twice in Florida State University’s Study Abroad Program in London. Over the
years, his teaching has been concentrated in the areas of information systems, operations research,
and operations management.
Dr. Stair is a member of several academic organizations, including the Decision Sciences
Institute and INFORMS, and he regularly participates in national meetings. He has published numer-
ous articles and books, including Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets, Introduction
to Management Science, Cases and Readings in Management Science, Production and Operations
Management: A Self-Correction Approach, Fundamentals of Information Systems, Principles of
Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, Computers in Today’s World, Principles
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 3 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:05
iv About the Authors
of Data Processing, Learning to Live with Computers, Programming in BASIC, Essentials of BASIC
Programming, Essentials of FORTRAN Programming, and Essentials of COBOL Programming.
Dr. Stair divides his time between Florida and Colorado. He enjoys skiing, biking, kayaking, and
other outdoor activities.
Michael E. Hanna is Professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Houston–Clear Lake
(UHCL). He holds a B.A. in Economics, an M.S. in Mathematics, and a Ph.D. in Operations Research
from Texas Tech University. For more than 25 years, he has been teaching courses in statistics, man-
agement science, forecasting, and other quantitative methods. His dedication to teaching has been
recognized with the Beta Alpha Psi teaching award in 1995 and the Outstanding Educator Award in
2006 from the Southwest Decision Sciences Institute (SWDSI).
Dr. Hanna has authored textbooks in management science and quantitative methods, has pub-
lished numerous articles and professional papers, and has served on the Editorial Advisory Board of
Computers and Operations Research. In 1996, the UHCL Chapter of Beta Gamma Sigma presented
him with the Outstanding Scholar Award.
Dr. Hanna is very active in the Decision Sciences Institute, having served on the Innovative
Education Committee, the Regional Advisory Committee, and the Nominating Committee. He has
served on the board of directors of the Decision Sciences Institute (DSI) for two terms and also
as regionally elected vice president of DSI. For SWDSI, he has held several positions, including
­
president, and he received the SWDSI Distinguished Service Award in 1997. For overall service to
the profession and to the university, he received the UHCL President’s Distinguished Service Award
in 2001.
Trevor S. Hale is Associate Professor of Management Science at the University of Houston–
Downtown (UHD). He received a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Penn State University, an
M.S. in Engineering Management from Northeastern University, and a Ph.D. in Operations Research
from Texas A&M University. He was previously on the faculty of both Ohio University–Athens,
and Colorado State University–Pueblo.
Dr. Hale was honored three times as an Office of Naval Research Senior Faculty Fellow. He
spent the summers of 2009, 2011, and 2013 performing energy security/cyber security research for
the U.S. Navy at Naval Base Ventura County in Port Hueneme, California.
Dr. Hale has published dozens of articles in the areas of operations research and quantitative
analysis in journals such as the International Journal of Production Research, the European Journal
of Operational Research, Annals of Operations Research, the Journal of the Operational Research
Society, and the International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management among
several others. He teaches quantitative analysis courses in the University of Houston–Downtown
MBA program and Masters of Security Management for Executives program. He is a senior mem-
ber of both the Decision Sciences Institute and INFORMS.
T. N. Badri is Associate Professor at Rajalakshmi School of Business, Chennai. Prior to this, he
was working as Associate Professor with Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai, from
2010 to 2014. His first teaching post was as Assistant Professor at T. A. Pai Management Institute,
Manipal. He has collaborated with other faculty there, on offering executive education programmes
for Bangalore based companies such as HP and Oracle.
He completed his bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi. Badri’s
interest towards the applied aspect grew over the subsequent years; hence, he did his MS is in
Computational Mathematics and Operations Research from Clemson University, South Carolina,
USA. He was awarded a PhD in Industrial Engineering and Operational Research on the topic
of heuristics for network design. The latest feather in his cap is an executive MBA from Great
Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai, that was jointly offered with Bauer College, University of
Houston, USA.
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 4 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
v
Chapter 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1
Chapter 2 Probability Concepts
and Applications 23
Chapter 3 Decision Analysis 67
Chapter 4 Regression Models 115
Chapter 5 Forecasting 153
Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models 197
Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical
and Computer Methods 251
Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications 305
Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network
Models 345
Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming,
and Nonlinear Programming 391
Chapter 11 Project Management 431
Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory
Models 471
Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling 505
Chapter 14 Markov Analysis 545
Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control 573
Online Modules
1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1
2 Dynamic Programming M2-1
3 Decision Theory and the Normal
Distribution M3-1
4 Game Theory M4-1
5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants
and Matrices M5-1
6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1
7 Linear Programming: The Simplex
Method M7-1
8 Transportation, Assignment, and
Network Algorithms M8-1
Brief Contents
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 5 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
vi
Contents
Preface xiii
Chapter 1 Introduction to
Quantitative Analysis 1
1.1 Introduction 2
1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis? 2
1.3 Business Analytics 3
1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 4
Defining the Problem 4
Developing a Model 4
Acquiring Input Data 5
Developing a Solution 5
Testing the Solution 6
Analyzing the Results and Sensitivity Analysis 6
Implementing the Results 6
The Quantitative Analysis Approach
and Modeling in the Real World 8
1.5 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis
Model 8
The Advantages of Mathematical Modeling 9
Mathematical Models Categorized by Risk 9
1.6 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet
Models in the Quantitative Analysis
Approach 10
1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative
Analysis Approach 13
Defining the Problem 13
Developing a Model 14
Acquiring Input Data 15
Developing a Solution 15
Testing the Solution 16
Analyzing the Results 16
1.8 Implementation—Not Just the
Final Step 17
Lack of Commitment and Resistance
to Change 17
Lack of Commitment by Quantitative Analysts 17
Summary 17 Glossary 18 Key Equations 18
Self-Test 18 Discussion Questions and
Problems 19 Case Study: Food and
Beverages at Southwestern University Football
Games 21 Bibliography 21
Chapter 2 Probability Concepts and Applications 23
2.1 Introduction 24
2.2 Fundamental Concepts 24
Two Basic Rules of Probability 24
Types of Probability 25
Mutually Exclusive and Collectively
Exhaustive Events 26
Unions and Intersections of Events 27
Probability Rules for Unions, Intersections,
and Conditional Probabilities 28
2.3 Revising Probabilities with Bayes’Theorem 29
General Form of Bayes’ Theorem 31
2.4 Further Probability Revisions 31
2.5 Random Variables 32
2.6 Probability Distributions 34
Probability Distribution of a Discrete
Random Variable 34
Expected Value of a Discrete Probability
Distribution 34
Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution 35
Probability Distribution of a Continuous
Random Variable 36
2.7 The Binomial Distribution 37
Solving Problems with the Binomial Formula 38
Solving Problems with Binomial Tables 39
2.8 The Normal Distribution 40
Area Under the Normal Curve 42
Using the Standard Normal Table 42
Haynes Construction Company Example 43
The Empirical Rule 46
2.9 The F Distribution 46
2.10 The Exponential Distribution 48
Arnold’s Muffler Example 49
2.11 The Poisson Distribution 50
Summary 52 Glossary 52 Key
Equations 53 Solved
Problems 54 Self-Test 56
Discussion Questions and Problems 57
Case Study: WTVX 63 Case Study: Indian Metro
League 63 Bibliography 64
Appendix 2.1: Derivation of Bayes’Theorem 65
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 6 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
Contents vii
Chapter 3 Decision Analysis 67
3.1 Introduction 68
3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Making 68
3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments 69
3.4 Decision Making Under Uncertainty 70
Optimistic 70
Pessimistic 71
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz Criterion) 71
Equally Likely (Laplace) 72
Minimax Regret 72
3.5 Decision Making Under Risk 73
Expected Monetary Value 73
Expected Value of Perfect Information 74
Expected Opportunity Loss 76
Sensitivity Analysis 76
3.6 A Minimization Example 77
3.7 Using Software for Payoff Table Problems 79
QM for Windows 79
Excel QM 80
3.8 Decision Trees 81
Efficiency of Sample Information 86
Sensitivity Analysis 86
3.9 How Probability Values Are Estimated
by Bayesian Analysis 87
Calculating Revised Probabilities 87
Potential Problem in Using Survey Results 89
3.10 Utility Theory 90
Measuring Utility and Constructing
a Utility Curve 91
Utility as a Decision-Making Criterion 94
Summary 96 Glossary 96
Key Equations 97 Solved Problems 97
Self-Test 102 Discussion Questions and
Problems 103 Case Study: Starting Right
Corporation 111 Case Study: Blake
Electronics 112 Bibliography 114
Chapter 4 Regression Models 115
4.1 Introduction 116
4.2 Scatter Diagrams 116
4.3 Simple Linear Regression 117
4.4 Measuring the Fit of the Regression
Model 119
Coefficient of Determination 120
Correlation Coefficient 120
4.5 Assumptions of the Regression Model 122
Estimating the Variance 123
4.6 Testing the Model for Significance 123
Triple A Construction Example 125
The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table 125
Triple A Construction ANOVA Example 126
4.7 Using Computer Software for Regression 126
Excel 2013 126
Excel QM 127
QM for Windows 129
4.8 Multiple Regression Analysis 130
Evaluating the Multiple Regression Model 131
Jenny Wilson Realty Example 132
4.9 Binary or Dummy Variables 133
4.10 Model Building 134
Stepwise Regression 135
Multicollinearity 135
4.11 Nonlinear Regression 135
4.12 Cautions and Pitfalls in Regression
Analysis 138
Summary 139 Glossary 139
Key Equations 140 Solved Problems 141
Self-Test 143 Discussion Questions and
Problems 143 Case Study: North–South
Airline 148 Case Study: The Southern
Motorcycle Company 149 Bibliography 150
Appendix 4.1: Formulas for Regression Calculations 150
Chapter 5 Forecasting 153
5.1 Introduction 154
5.2 Types of Forecasting Models 154
Qualitative Models 154
Causal Models 155
Time-Series Models 155
5.3 Components of a Time-Series 155
5.4 Measures of Forecast Accuracy 157
5.5 Forecasting Models—Random Variations
Only 160
Moving Averages 160
Weighted Moving Averages 160
Exponential Smoothing 162
Using Software for Forecasting Time Series 164
5.6 Forecasting Models—Trend and Random
Variations 167
Exponential Smoothing with Trend 167
Trend Projections 169
5.7 Adjusting for Seasonal Variations 171
Seasonal Indices 172
Calculating Seasonal Indices with No
Trend 172
Calculating Seasonal Indices with Trend 173
5.8 Forecasting Models—Trend, Seasonal, and
Random Variations 174
The Decomposition Method 174
Software for Decomposition 177
Using Regression with Trend and Seasonal
Components 178
5.9 Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts 179
Adaptive Smoothing 181
Summary 181 Glossary 182
Key Equations 182 Solved Problems 183
Self-Test 184 Discussion Questions and
Problems 185 Case Study: Forecasting
Attendance at SWU Football Games 188
Case Study: Forecasting Monthly
Sales 189 Case Study: Forecasting Commercial
Vehicle Sales at ABCO 190 Bibliography 196
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 7 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
viii Contents
Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models 197
6.1 Introduction 198
6.2 Importance of Inventory Control 199
Decoupling Function 199
Storing Resources 199
Irregular Supply and Demand 199
Quantity Discounts 199
Avoiding Stockouts and Shortages 199
6.3 Inventory Decisions 200
6.4 Economic Order Quantity: Determining How
Much to Order 201
Inventory Costs in the EOQ Situation 202
Finding the EOQ 204
Sumco Pump Company Example 204
Purchase Cost of Inventory Items 205
Sensitivity Analysis with the EOQ Model 206
6.5 Reorder Point: Determining When
to Order 207
6.6 EOQ Without the Instantaneous Receipt
Assumption 208
Annual Carrying Cost for Production Run
Model 209
Annual Setup Cost or Annual Ordering
Cost 209
Determining the Optimal Production
Quantity 210
Brown Manufacturing Example 210
6.7 Quantity Discount Models 212
Brass Department Store Example 214
6.8 Use of Safety Stock 216
6.9 Single-Period Inventory Models 221
Marginal Analysis with Discrete
Distributions 222
Café du Donut Example 223
Marginal Analysis with the Normal
Distribution 224
Newspaper Example 224
6.10 ABC Analysis 226
6.11 Dependent Demand: The Case for Material
Requirements Planning 226
Material Structure Tree 227
Gross and Net Material Requirements
Plan 228
Two or More End Products 229
6.12 Just-In-Time Inventory Control 231
6.13 Enterprise Resource Planning 232
Summary 233 Glossary 233
Key Equations 234 Solved Problems 235
Self-Test 237 Discussion Questions
and Problems 238 Case Study: Martin-
Pullin Bicycle Corporation 245 Case
Study: Multiperiod Inventory Planning at
ABYCO 246 Bibliography 247
Appendix 6.1: Inventory Control with QM for
Windows 248
Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical
and Computer Methods 251
7.1 Introduction 252
7.2 Requirements of a Linear Programming
Problem 252
7.3 Formulating LP Problems 253
Flair Furniture Company 253
7.4 Graphical Solution to an LP Problem 255
Graphical Representation of Constraints 255
Isoprofit Line Solution Method 259
Corner Point Solution Method 262
Slack and Surplus 264
7.5 Solving Flair Furniture’s LP Problem Using
QM for Windows, Excel 2013, and Excel
QM 265
Using QM for Windows 265
Using Excel’s Solver Command to Solve
LP Problems 266
Using Excel QM 269
7.6 Solving Minimization Problems 271
Holiday Meal Turkey Ranch 271
7.7 Four Special Cases in LP 275
No Feasible Solution 275
Unboundedness 275
Redundancy 276
Alternate Optimal Solutions 277
7.8 Sensitivity Analysis 278
High Note Sound Company 279
Changes in the Objective Function
Coefficient 280
QM for Windows and Changes in Objective
Function Coefficients 280
Excel Solver and Changes in Objective Function
Coefficients 281
Changes in the Technological Coefficients 282
Changes in the Resources or Right-Hand-Side
Values 283
QM for Windows and Changes in Right-Hand-
Side Values 284
Excel Solver and Changes in Right-Hand-Side
Values 284
Summary 286 Glossary 286
Solved Problems 287 Self-Test 291
Discussion Questions and Problems 292
Case Study: Mexicana Wire Works 301
Case Study: Planning the Product
Mix at Panchtantra Corporation 302
Bibliography 303
Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications 305
8.1 Introduction 306
8.2 Marketing Applications 306
Media Selection 306
Marketing Research 307
8.3 Manufacturing Applications 310
Production Mix 310
Production Scheduling 311
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 8 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
Contents ix
8.4 Employee Scheduling Applications 315
Labor Planning 315
8.5 Financial Applications 317
Portfolio Selection 317
Truck Loading Problem 320
8.6 Ingredient Blending Applications 322
Diet Problems 322
Ingredient Mix and Blending Problems 323
8.7 Other Linear Programming
Applications 325
Summary 327 Self-Test 327
Problems 328 Case Study: Cable 
Moore 335 Case Study: Kamdhenu
Diary 336 Bibliography 343
Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network
Models 345
9.1 Introduction 346
9.2 The Transportation Problem 347
Linear Program for the Transportation
Example 347
Solving Transportation Problems Using
Computer Software 347
A General LP Model for Transportation
Problems 348
Facility Location Analysis 349
9.3 The Assignment Problem 352
Linear Program for Assignment Example 352
9.4 The Transshipment Problem 354
Linear Program for Transshipment Example 354
9.5 Maximal-Flow Problem 357
Example 357
9.6 Shortest-Route Problem 359
9.7 All-Node-Pairs Shortest Path 360
9.8 Minimal-Spanning Tree Problem 364
Summary 369 Glossary 369
Solved Problems 370 Self-Test 372
Discussion Questions and Problems 373
Case Study: Andrew–Carter, Inc. 386
Case Study: Northeastern Airlines 387
Case Study: Southwestern University Traffic
Problems 388 Bibliography 389
Appendix 9.1: Using QM for Windows 389
Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal
Programming, and Nonlinear
Programming 391
10.1 Introduction 392
10.2 Integer Programming 392
Harrison Electric Company Example of Integer
Programming 392
Using Software to Solve the Harrison Integer
Programming Problem 394
Mixed-Integer Programming Problem
Example 396
10.3 Modeling with 0–1 (Binary) Variables 398
Capital Budgeting Example 398
Limiting the Number of Alternatives
Selected 400
Dependent Selections 400
Fixed-Charge Problem Example 400
Financial Investment Example 402
10.4 Goal Programming 402
Example of Goal Programming: Harrison Electric
Company Revisited 404
Extension to Equally Important Multiple
Goals 405
Ranking Goals with Priority Levels 405
Goal Programming with Weighted Goals 406
10.5 Nonlinear Programming 407
Nonlinear Objective Function and Linear
Constraints 408
Both Nonlinear Objective Function and
Nonlinear Constraints 408
Linear Objective Function with Nonlinear
Constraints 410
Summary 410 Glossary 411
Solved Problems 411 Self-Test 420
Discussion Questions and Problems 420
Case Study: Schank Marketing
Research 426 Case Study: Oakton River
Bridge 427 Case Study: Optimizing Crude Oil
Logistics at Petrolco 428 Bibliography 429
Chapter 11 Project Management 431
11.1 Introduction 432
11.2 PERT/CPM 433
General Foundry Example of PERT/CPM 433
Drawing the PERT/CPM Network 435
Activity Times 435
How to Find the Critical Path 436
Probability of Project Completion 441
What PERT Was Able to Provide 442
Using Excel QM for the General Foundry
Example 442
Sensitivity Analysis and Project Management 443
11.3 PERT/Cost 445
Planning and Scheduling Project Costs:
Budgeting Process 445
Monitoring and Controlling Project Costs 448
11.4 Project Crashing 450
General Foundary Example 451
Project Crashing with Linear Programming 452
11.5 Other Topics in Project Management 455
Subprojects 455
Milestones 455
Resource Leveling 455
Software 455
Summary 455 Glossary 456
Key Equations 456 Solved Problems 457
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 9 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
x Contents
Self-Test 459 Discussion Questions and
Problems 460 Case Study: Southwestern
University Stadium Construction 466
Case Study: Family Planning Research Center of
Nigeria 467 Bibliography 468
Appendix 11.1: Project Management with QM
for Windows 469
Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory
Models 471
12.1 Introduction 472
12.2 Waiting Line Costs 472
Three Rivers Shipping Company Example 473
12.3 Characteristics of a Queuing System 474
Arrival Characteristics 474
Waiting Line Characteristics 474
Service Facility Characteristics 475
Identifying Models Using Kendall Notation 475
12.4 Single-Channel Queuing Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times
(M/M/1) 478
Assumptions of the Model 478
Queuing Equations 478
Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case 479
Enhancing the Queuing Environment 483
12.5 Multichannel Queuing Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times
(M/M/m) 483
Equations for the Multichannel Queuing
Model 484
Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited 484
12.6 Constant Service Time Model (M/D/1) 486
Equations for the Constant Service Time
Model 486
Garcia-Golding Recycling, Inc. 487
12.7 Finite Population Model (M/M/1 with Finite
Source) 488
Equations for the Finite Population Model 488
Department of Commerce Example 489
12.8 Some General Operating Characteristic
Relationships 490
12.9 More Complex Queuing Models and the Use
of Simulation 490
Summary 491 Glossary 491
Key Equations 492 Solved Problems 493
Self-Test 496 Discussion Questions and
Problems 497 Case Study: New England
Foundry 501 Case Study: Winter Park
Hotel 503 Bibliography 503
Appendix 12.1: Using QM for Windows 504
Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling 505
13.1 Introduction 506
13.2 Advantages and Disadvantages
of Simulation 507
13.3 Monte Carlo Simulation 508
Harry’s Auto Tire Example 508
Using QM for Windows for Simulation 513
Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 514
13.4 Simulation and Inventory Analysis 516
Simkin’s Hardware Store 516
Analyzing Simkin’s Inventory Costs 519
13.5 Simulation of a Queuing Problem 520
Port of New Orleans 520
Using Excel to Simulate the Port of New Orleans
Queuing Problem 522
13.6 Simulation Model for a Maintenance
Policy 523
Three Hills Power Company 523
Cost Analysis of the Simulation 525
13.7 Other Simulation Issues 528
Two Other Types of Simulation Models 528
Verification and Validation 529
Role of Computers in Simulation 530
Summary 530 Glossary 530
Solved Problems 531 Self-Test 534
Discussion Questions and Problems 535
Case Study: Alabama Airlines 540
Case Study: Statewide Development
Corporation 541 Case Study: FB Badpoore
Aerospace 542 Case Study: Radiology
Department at the Kamala Medical College and
Hospital 543 Bibliography 544
Chapter 14 Markov Analysis 545
14.1 Introduction 546
14.2 States and State Probabilities 546
The Vector of State Probabilities for Three
Grocery Stores Example 547
14.3 Matrix of Transition Probabilities 548
Transition Probabilities for the Three Grocery
Stores 549
14.4 Predicting Future Market Shares 549
14.5 Markov Analysis of Machine Operations 550
14.6 Equilibrium Conditions 551
14.7 Absorbing States and the Fundamental
Matrix: Accounts Receivable Application 554
Summary 558 Glossary 559
Key Equations 559 Solved Problems 559
Self-Test 563 Discussion Questions
and Problems 563 Case Study: Rentall
Trucks 568 Bibliography 569
Appendix 14.1: Markov Analysis with QM for Windows 569
Appendix 14.2: Markov Analysis With Excel 571
Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control 573
15.1 Introduction 574
15.2 Defining Quality and TQM 574
15.3 Statistical Process Control 575
Variability in the Process 575
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 10 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
Contents xi
15.4 Control Charts for Variables 577
The Central Limit Theorem 577
Setting x-Chart Limits 578
Setting Range Chart Limits 581
15.5 Control Charts for Attributes 582
p-Charts 582
c-Charts 584
Summary 586 Glossary 586
Key Equations 586 Solved Problems 587
Self-Test 588 Discussion Questions and
Problems 588 Bibliography 591
Appendix 15.1: Using QM for Windows for SPC 591
appendices 593
Appendix A Areas Under the Standard
Normal Curve 594
Appendix B Binomial Probabilities 596
Appendix c Values of e-λ
for Use in the Poisson
Distribution 601
Appendix D F Distribution Values 602
Appendix E Using POM-QM for Windows 604
Appendix F Using Excel QM and Excel Add-Ins 607
Appendix G Solutions to Selected Problems 608
Appendix H Solutions to Self-Tests 612		
		index 615
ONLINE Modules
Module 1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1
M1.1 Introduction M1-2
M1.2 Multifactor Evaluation Process M1-2
M1.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-4
Judy Grim’s Computer Decision M1-4
Using Pairwise Comparisons M1-5
Evaluations for Hardware M1-7
Determining the Consistency Ratio M1-7
Evaluations for the Other Factors M1-9
Determining Factor Weights M1-10
Overall Ranking M1-10
Using the Computer to Solve Analytic Hierarchy
Process Problems M1-10
M1.4 Comparison of Multifactor Evaluation and
Analytic Hierarchy Processes M1-11
Summary M1-12 Glossary M1-12 Key
Equations M1-12 Solved Problems M1-12
Self-Test M1-14 Discussion Questions and
Problems M1-14 Bibliography M1-16
Appendix M1.1: Using Excel for the Analytic Hierarchy
Process M1-16
Module 2 Dynamic Programming M2-1
M2.1 Introduction M2-2
M2.2 Shortest-Route Problem Solved using
Dynamic Programming M2-2
M2.3 Dynamic Programming Terminology M2-6
M2.4 Dynamic Programming Notation M2-8
M2.5 Knapsack Problem M2-9
Types of Knapsack Problems M2-9
Roller’s Air Transport Service Problem M2-9
Summary M2-16 Glossary M2-16 Key
Equations M2-16 Solved Problems M2-16
Self-Test M2-18 Discussion Questions
and Problems M2-19 Case Study:
United Trucking M2-22 Internet Case
Study M2-22 Bibliography M2-22
Module 3 Decision Theory and the Normal
Distribution M3-1
M3.1 Introduction M3-2
M3.2 Break-Even Analysis and the Normal
Distribution M3-2
Barclay Brothers Company’s New Product
Decision M3-2
Probability Distribution of Demand M3-3
Using Expected Monetary Value to Make a
Decision M3-5
M3.3 Expected Value of Perfect Information and
the Normal Distribution M3-6
Opportunity Loss Function M3-6
Expected Opportunity Loss M3-6
Summary M3-8 Glossary M3-8
Key Equations M3-8 Solved Problems M3-9
Self-Test M3-9 Discussion Questions and
Problems M3-10 Bibliography M3-11
Appendix M3.1: Derivation of the Break-Even Point M3-11
Appendix M3.2: Unit Normal Loss Integral M3-12
Module 4 Game Theory M4-1
M4.1 Introduction M4-2
M4.2 Language of Games M4-2
M4.3 The Minimax Criterion M4-3
M4.4 Pure Strategy Games M4-4
M4.5 Mixed Strategy Games M4-5
M4.6 Dominance M4-6
Summary M4-7 Glossary M4-7 Solved
Problems M4-7 Self-Test M4-8
Discussion Questions and Problems M4-9
Bibliography M4-10
Module 5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants
and Matrices M5-1
M5.1 Introduction M5-2
M5.2 Matrices and Matrix
Operations M5-2
Matrix Addition and Subtraction M5-2
Matrix Multiplication M5-3
Matrix Notation for Systems
of Equations M5-6
Matrix Transpose M5-6
M5.3 Determinants, Cofactors, and
Adjoints M5-6
Determinants M5-6
Matrix of Cofactors and Adjoint M5-8
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 11 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
xii Contents
M5.4 Finding the Inverse of a Matrix M5-10
Summary M5-11 Glossary M5-11
Key Equations M5-11 Self-Test M5-12
Discussion Questions and Problems M5-12
Bibliography M5-13
Appendix M5.1: Using Excel for Matrix Calculations M5-13
Module 6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1
M6.1 Introduction M6-2
M6.2 Slope of a Straight Line M6-2
M6.3 Slope of a Nonlinear Function M6-3
M6.4 Some Common Derivatives M6-5
Second Derivatives M6-6
M6.5 Maximum and Minimum M6-6
M6.6 Applications M6-8
Economic Order Quantity M6-8
Total Revenue M6-9
Summary M6-10 Glossary M6-10
Key Equations M6-10 Solved Problem M6-11
Self-Test M6-11 Discussion Questions and
Problems M6-12 Bibliography M6-12
Module 7 Linear Programming: The Simplex
Method M7-1
M7.1 Introduction M7-2
M7.2 How to Set Up the Initial Simplex
Solution M7-2
Converting the Constraints to Equations M7-3
Finding an Initial Solution Algebraically M7-3
The First Simplex Tableau M7-4
M7.3 Simplex Solution Procedures M7-8
M7.4 The Second Simplex Tableau M7-9
Interpreting the Second Tableau M7-12
M7.5 Developing the Third Tableau M7-13
M7.6 Review of Procedures for Solving LP
Maximization Problems M7-16
M7.7 Surplus and Artificial Variables M7-16
Surplus Variables M7-17
Artificial Variables M7-17
Surplus and Artificial Variables in the Objective
Function M7-18
M7.8 Solving Minimization Problems M7-18
The Muddy River Chemical Company
Example M7-18
Graphical Analysis M7-19
Converting the Constraints and Objective
Function M7-20
Rules of the Simplex Method for Minimization
Problems M7-21
First Simplex Tableau for the Muddy River
Chemical Corporation Problem M7-21
Developing a Second Tableau M7-23
Developing a Third Tableau M7-24
Fourth Tableau for the Muddy River Chemical
Corporation Problem M7-26
M7.9 Review of Procedures for Solving LP
Minimization Problems M7-27
M7.10 Special Cases M7-28
Infeasibility M7-28
Unbounded Solutions M7-28
Degeneracy M7-29
More Than One Optimal Solution M7-30
M7.11 Sensitivity Analysis with the Simplex
Tableau M7-30
High Note Sound Company Revisited M7-30
Changes in the Objective Function
Coefficients M7-31
Changes in Resources or RHS Values M7-33
M7.12 The Dual M7-35
Dual Formulation Procedures M7-37
Solving the Dual of the High Note Sound
Company Problem M7-37
M7.13 Karmarkar’s Algorithm M7-39
Summary M7-39 Glossary M7-39
Key Equation M7-40 Solved Problems M7-41
Self-Test M7-44 Discussion Questions and
Problems M7-45 Bibliography M7-53
Module 8 Transportation, Assignment, and ­
Network
Algorithms M8-1
M8.1 Introduction M8-2
M8.2 The Transportation Algorithm M8-2
Developing an Initial Solution: Northwest Corner
Rule M8-2
Stepping-Stone Method: Finding a Least-Cost
Solution M8-4
M8.3 Special Situations with the Transportation
Algorithm M8-9
Unbalanced Transportation Problems M8-9
Degeneracy in Transportation Problems M8-10
More Than One Optimal Solution M8-13
Maximization Transportation Problems M8-13
Unacceptable or Prohibited Routes M8-13
Other Transportation Methods M8-13
M8.4 The Assignment Algorithm M8-13
The Hungarian Method (Flood’s
Technique) M8-14
Making the Final Assignment M8-18
M8.5 Special Situations with the Assignment
Algorithm M8-18
Unbalanced Assignment Problems M8-18
Maximization Assignment Problems M8-19
M8.6 Maximal-Flow Problem M8-20
Maximal-Flow Technique M8-20
M8.7 Shortest-Route Problem M8-23
Shortest-Route Technique M8-23
Summary M8-25 Glossary M8-25
Solved Problems M8-26 Self-Test M8-32
Discussion Questions and Problems M8-33
Cases M8-42 Bibliography M8-42
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 12 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
xiii
Overview
Welcome to the twelfth edition of Quantitative Analysis for Management. Our goal is to provide
undergraduate and graduate students with a genuine foundation in business analytics, quantitative
methods, and management science. In doing so, we owe thanks to the hundreds of users and scores
of reviewers who have provided invaluable counsel and pedagogical insight for more than 30 years.
To help students connect how the techniques presented in this book apply in the real world,
computer-based applications and examples are a major focus of this edition. Mathematical ­
models,
with all the necessary assumptions, are presented in a clear and jargon-free language. The solution
procedures are then applied to example problems alongside step-by-step ­
“how-to” instructions. We
have found this method of presentation to be very effective and students are very appreciative of this
approach. In places where the mathematical computations are intricate, the details are presented in
such a manner that the instructor can omit these sections without interrupting the flow of material.
The use of computer software enables the instructor to focus on the managerial problem and spend
less time on the details of the algorithms. Computer output is provided for many examples through-
out the book.
The only mathematical prerequisite for this textbook is algebra. One chapter on probability and
another on regression analysis provide introductory coverage on these topics. We employ standard
notation, terminology, and equations throughout the book. Careful explanation is provided for the
mathematical notation and equations that are used.
New to This Edition
● An introduction to business analytics is provided.
● Excel 2013 is incorporated throughout the chapters.
● The transportation, assignment, and network models have been combined into one chapter
focused on modeling with linear programming.
● Specialized algorithms for the transportation, assignment, and network methods have been
combined into Online Module 8.
● New examples, over 25 problems, 8 QA in Action applications, 4 Modeling in the Real World
features, and new Case Studies have been added throughout the textbook. Other problems and
Case Studies have been updated.
Preface
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 13 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
xiv Preface
Special Features
Many features have been popular in previous editions of this textbook, and they have been updated
and expanded in this edition. They include the following:
● Modeling in the Real World boxes demonstrate the application of the quantitative analysis
approach to every technique discussed in the book. Four new ones have been added.
● Procedure boxes summarize the more complex quantitative techniques, presenting them as a
series of easily understandable steps.
● Margin notes highlight the important topics in the text.
● History boxes provide interesting asides related to the development of techniques and the
­people who are related to its origin.
● QA in Action boxes illustrate how real organizations have used quantitative analysis to solve
problems. Several new QA in Action boxes have been added.
● Solved Problems, included at the end of each chapter, serve as models for students in solving
their own homework problems.
● Discussion Questions are presented at the end of each chapter to test the student’s understand-
ing of the concepts covered and definitions provided in the chapter.
● Problems included in every chapter are applications oriented and test the student’s ability to
solve exam-type problems. They are graded by level of difficulty: introductory (one bullet),
moderate (two bullets), and challenging (three bullets). More than 40 new problems have been
added.
● Internet Homework Problems provide additional problems for students to work. They are
available at www.pearsoned.co.in/render.
● Self-Tests allow students to test their knowledge of important terms and concepts in prepara-
tion for quizzes and examinations.
● Case Studies, at the end of each chapter, provide additional challenging managerial
applications.
● Glossaries, at the end of each chapter, define important terms.
● Key Equations, provided at the end of each chapter, list the equations presented in that
chapter.
● End-of-chapter bibliographies provide a current selection of more advanced books and
articles.
● The software POM-QM for Windows uses the full capabilities of Windows to solve quantita-
tive analysis problems.
● Excel QM and Excel 2013 are used to solve problems throughout the book.
● Data files with Excel spreadsheets and POM-QM for Windows files containing all the
­
examples in the textbook are available for students to download from www.pearsoned.co.in/
render. Instructors can download these plus additional files containing computer solutions to
the relevant end-of-chapter problems from the Instructor Resource Center Web site.
● Online modules provide additional coverage of topics in quantitative analysis.
● www.pearsoned.co.in/render, provides the online modules, additional problems, cases, and
other material for almost every chapter.
Significant Changes to the Twelfth Edition
In the twelfth edition, we have introduced Excel 2013 in all of the chapters. Screenshots are
­
integrated in the appropriate sections so that students can easily learn how to use Excel for the
calculations. The Excel QM add-in is used with Excel 2013 allowing students with limited Excel
experience to easily perform the necessary calculations. This also allows students to improve their
Excel skills as they see the formulas automatically written in Excel QM.
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 14 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
Preface xv
From www.pearsoned.co.in/render, students can access files for all of the examples used in the
textbook in Excel 2013, QM for Windows, and Excel QM. Other files with all of the end-of-chapter
problems involving these software tools are available to the instructors.
Business analytics, one of the hottest topics in the business world, makes extensive use of the
models in this book. A discussion of the business analytics categories is provided, and the relevant
management science techniques are placed into the appropriate category.
The transportation, transshipment, assignment, and network models have been combined into
one chapter focused on modeling with linear programming. The specialized algorithms for these
models have been combined into a new online module.
Examples and problems have been updated, and many new ones have been added. New screen-
shots are provided for almost all of the examples in the book. A brief summary of the other changes
in each chapter are presented here.
Chapter 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis. A section on business analytics has been added,
the self-test has been modified, and two new problems were added.
Chapter 2 Probability Concepts and Applications. The presentation of the fundamental concepts
of probability has been significantly modified and reorganized. Two new problems have been added.
Chapter 3 Decision Analysis. A more thorough discussion of minimization problems with payoff
tables has been provided in a new section. The presentation of software usage with payoff tables
was expanded. Two new problems were added.
Chapter 4 Regression Models. The use of different software packages for regression analysis has
been moved to the body of the textbook instead of the appendix. Five new problems and one new
QA in Action item have been added.
Chapter 5 Forecasting. The presentation of time-series forecasting models was significantly
revised to bring the focus on identifying the appropriate technique to use based on which time-
series components are present in the data. Five new problems were added, and the cases have been
updated.
Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models. The four steps of the Kanban production process have been
updated and clarified. Two new QA in Action boxes, four new problems, and one new Modeling in
the Real World have been added.
Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods. More discussion of
Solver is presented. A new Modeling in the Real World item was added, and the solved problems
have been revised.
Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications. The transportation model was moved to Chapter 9,
and a new section describing other models has been added. The self-test questions were modified;
one new problem, one new QA in Action summary, and a new case study have been added.
Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models. This new chapter presents all of
the distribution, assignment, and network models that were previously in two separate chapters.
The modeling approach is emphasized, while the special-purpose algorithms were moved to a new
online module. A new case study, Northeastern Airlines, has also been added.
Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming. The use of
Excel 2013 and the new screen shots were the only changes to this chapter.
Chapter 11 Project Management. Two new end-of-chapter problems and three new QA in Action
boxes have been added.
Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models. Two new end-of-chapter problems were
added.
Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling. One new Modeling in the Real World vignette, one new QA in
Action box, and a new case study have been added.
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 15 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
xvi Preface
Chapter 14 Markov Analysis. One new QA in Action box and two new end-of-chapter problems
have been added.
Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control. One new Modeling in the Real World vignette, one new
QA in Action box, and two new end-of-chapter problems have been added.
Modules 1–8 The only significant change to the modules is the addition of Module 8:
Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms. This includes the special-purpose algorithms
for the transportation, assignment, and network models.
Online Modules
To streamline the book, eight topics are contained in modules available at www.pearsoned.co.in/
render for the book.
1. Analytic Hierarchy Process
2. Dynamic Programming
3. Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution
4. Game Theory
5. Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices
6. Calculus-Based Optimization
7. Linear Programming: The Simplex Method
8. Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms
Software
Excel 2013 Instructions and screen captures are provided for, using Excel 2013, throughout the
book. Instructions for activating the Solver and Analysis ToolPak add-ins in Excel 2013 are pro-
vided in an appendix. The use of Excel is more prevalent in this edition of the book than in previous
editions.
Excel QM Using the Excel QM add-in that is available at www.pearsoned.co.in/render, makes the
use of Excel even easier. Students with limited Excel experience can use this and learn from the
formulas that are automatically provided by Excel QM. This is used in many of the chapters.
POM-QM for Windows This software, developed by Professor Howard Weiss, is available to
students at www.pearsoned.co.in/render. This is very user-friendly and has proven to be a very
popular software tool for users of this textbook. Modules are available for every major problem type
presented in the textbook.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
The resources located at www.pearsoned.co.in/render, contains a variety of materials to help stu-
dents master the material in this course. These include the following:
Modules There are eight modules containing additional material that the instructor may choose to
include in the course. Students can download these from www.pearsoned.co.in/render.
Files for Examples in Excel, Excel QM, and POM-QM for Windows Students can down-
load the files that were used for examples throughout the book. This helps them become familiar
with the software, and it helps them understand the input and formulas necessary for working the
examples.
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 16 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
Preface xvii
Internet Homework Problems In addition to the end-of-chapter problems in the textbook,
there are additional problems that instructors may assign. These are available for download at
www.pearsoned.co.in/render.
Internet Case Studies Additional case studies are available for most chapters.
POM-QM for Windows Developed by Howard Weiss, this very user-friendly software can be
used to solve most of the homework problems in the text.
Excel QM This Excel add-in will automatically create worksheets for solving problems. This is
very helpful for instructors who choose to use Excel in their classes but who may have students
with limited Excel experience. Students can learn by examining the formulas that have been cre-
ated, and by seeing the inputs that are automatically generated for using the Solver add-in for linear
programming.
Instructor Resources
Instructor resources are available at www.pearsoned.co.in/render
Acknowledgments
We gratefully thank the users of previous editions and the reviewers who provided valuable sugges-
tions and ideas for this edition.Your feedback is valuable in our efforts for continuous improvement.
The continued success of Quantitative Analysis for Management is a direct result of instructor and
student feedback, which is truly appreciated.
The authors are indebted to many people who have made important contributions to this pro-
ject. Special thanks go to Professors Faizul Huq, F. Bruce Simmons III, Khala Chand Seal, Victor E.
Sower, Michael Ballot, Curtis P. McLaughlin, Zbigniew H. Przanyski, Atanu Sanyal, Chandramouli
Swaminathan, Subhayu Roy, R. C. Natarajan, and S. Sivakumar for their contributions to the excel-
lent cases included in this edition.
We thank Howard Weiss for providing Excel QM and POM-QM for Windows, two of the most
outstanding packages in the field of quantitative methods. We would also like to thank the reviewers who
have helped to make this textbook the most widely used one in the field of quantitative analysis:
Stephen Achtenhagen, San Jose University
M. Jill Austin, Middle Tennessee State University
Raju Balakrishnan, Clemson University
Hooshang Beheshti, Radford University
Jason Bergner, University of Central Missouri
Bruce K. Blaylock, Radford University
Rodney L. Carlson, Tennessee Technological University
Edward Chu, California State University, Dominguez Hills
John Cozzolino, Pace University–Pleasantville
Ozgun C. Demirag, Penn State–Erie
Shad Dowlatshahi, University of Wisconsin, Platteville
Ike Ehie, Southeast Missouri State University
Richard Ehrhardt, University of North Carolina–Greensboro
Sean Eom, Southeast Missouri State University
Ephrem Eyob, Virginia State University
Mira Ezvan, Lindenwood University
Wade Ferguson, Western Kentucky University
Robert Fiore, Springfield College
Frank G. Forst, Loyola University of Chicago
Ed Gillenwater, University of Mississippi
Stephen H. Goodman, University of Central Florida
Irwin Greenberg, George Mason University
Nicholas G. Hall, Ohio State University
Robert R. Hill, University of Houston–Clear Lake
Gordon Jacox, Weber State University
Bharat Jain, Towson University
Vassilios Karavas, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Darlene R. Lanier, Louisiana State University
Kenneth D. Lawrence, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Jooh Lee, Rowan College
Richard D. Legault, University of Massachusetts–Dartmouth
Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College
Daniel McNamara, University of St. Thomas
Peter Miller, University of Windsor
Ralph Miller, California State Polytechnic University
Shahriar Mostashari, Campbell University
David Murphy, Boston College
Robert C. Myers, University of Louisville
Barin Nag, Towson State University
Nizam S. Najd, Oklahoma State University
Harvey Nye, Central State University
Alan D. Olinsky, Bryant College
Savas Ozatalay, Widener University
Young Park, California University of Pennsylvania
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 17 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
xviii Preface
Cy Peebles, Eastern Kentucky University
Yusheng Peng, Brooklyn College
Dane K. Peterson, Southwest Missouri State University
Sanjeev Phukan, Bemidji State University
Ranga Ramasesh, Texas Christian University
William Rife, West Virginia University
Bonnie Robeson, Johns Hopkins University
Grover Rodich, Portland State University
Vijay Shah, West Virginia University–Parkersburg
L. Wayne Shell, Nicholls State University
Thomas Sloan, University of Massachusetts–Lowell
Richard Slovacek, North Central College
Alan D. Smith, Robert Morris University
John Swearingen, Bryant College
F. S. Tanaka, Slippery Rock State University
Jack Taylor, Portland State University
Madeline Thimmes, Utah State University
M. Keith Thomas, Olivet College
Andrew Tiger, Southeastern Oklahoma State University
Chris Vertullo, Marist College
James Vigen, California State University, Bakersfield
William Webster, University of Texas at San Antonio
Larry Weinstein, Eastern Kentucky University
Fred E. Williams, University of Michigan–Flint
Mela Wyeth, Charleston Southern University
Oliver Yu, San Jose State University
We are very grateful to all the people at Pearson who worked so hard to make this book a suc-
cess. These include Donna Battista, editor in chief; Mary Kate Murray, senior project manager; and
Kathryn Dinovo, senior production project manager. We are also grateful to Tracy Duff, our project
manager at PreMediaGlobal. We are extremely thankful to Annie Puciloski for her tireless work in
error checking the textbook. Thank you all!
Barry Render
brender@rollins.edu
Ralph Stair
Michael Hanna
hanna@uhcl.edu
Trevor S. Hale
halet@uhd.edu
I am extremely grateful to all the people at Pearson India Education Services Pvt. Ltd, who made
the Indian adaptation of this book happen: Pradeep Kumar Bhattacharjee, C. Purushothaman and
many others.
Badri Toppur
badri.toppur@gmail.com
A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 18 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
1
leARnIng OBJeCTIVeS
5. Use computers and spreadsheet models
to perform quantitative analysis
6. Discuss possible problems in using quantitative
analysis.
7. Perform a break-even analysis.
1. Describe the quantitative analysis approach.
2. Understand the application of quantitative analysis in
a real situation.
3. Describe the three categories of business analytics.
4. Describe the use of modeling in quantitative analysis.
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
Summary • Glossary • Key Equations • Self-Test • Discussion Questions and Problems • Case Study: Food and
Beverages at Southwestern University Football Games • Bibliography
1.6 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models
in the Quantitative Analysis Approach
1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis
Approach
1.8 Implementation—Not Just the Final Step
1.1 Introduction
1.2 What is Quantitative Analysis?
1.3 Business Analytics
1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach
1.5 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model
CHAPTeR OUTlIne
CHAPTER 1
1
Introduction to
Quantitative Analysis
QAM Chapter 1.indd 1 21-Dec-15 9:29:23 AM
2 Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis
1.1 Introduction
People have been using mathematical tools to help solve problems for thousands of years; how-
ever, the formal study and application of quantitative techniques to practical decision making
is largely a product of the twentieth century. The techniques we study in this book have been
applied successfully to an increasingly wide variety of complex problems in business, govern-
ment, health care, education, and many other areas. Many such successful uses are discussed
throughout this book.
It isn’t enough, though, just to know the mathematics of how a particular quantitative tech-
nique works; you must also be familiar with the limitations, assumptions, and specific applica-
bility of the technique. The successful use of quantitative techniques usually results in a solution
that is timely, accurate, flexible, economical, reliable, and easy to understand and use.
In this and other chapters, there are QA (Quantitative Analysis) in Action boxes that provide
success stories on the applications of management science. They show how organizations have
used quantitative techniques to make better decisions, operate more efficiently, and generate
more profits. Taco Bell has reported saving over $150 million with better forecasting of demand
and better scheduling of employees. NBC television increased advertising revenue by over $200
million between 1996 and 2000 by using a model to help develop sales plans for advertisers.
Continental Airlines saves over $40 million per year by using mathematical models to quickly
recover from disruptions caused by weather delays and other factors. These are but a few of the
many companies discussed in QA in Action boxes throughout this book.
To see other examples of how companies use quantitative analysis or operations research
methods to operate better and more efficiently, go to the website www.scienceofbetter.org. The
success stories presented there are categorized by industry, functional area, and benefit. These
success stories illustrate how operations research is truly the “science of better.”
1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis?
Quantitative analysis is the scientific approach to managerial decision making. This field of
study has several different names including quantitative analysis, management science, and op-
erations research. These terms are used interchangeably in this book. Also, many of the quantita-
tive analysis methods presented in this book are used extensively in business analytics.
Whim, emotions, and guesswork are not part of the quantitative analysis approach. The ap-
proach starts with data. Like raw material for a factory, these data are manipulated or processed
into information that is valuable to people making decisions. This processing and manipulating
of raw data into meaningful information is the heart of quantitative analysis. Computers have
been instrumental in the increasing use of quantitative analysis.
In solving a problem, managers must consider both qualitative and quantitative factors. For
example, we might consider several different investment alternatives, including certificates of
deposit at a bank, investments in the stock market, and an investment in real estate. We can use
quantitative analysis to determine how much our investment will be worth in the future when de-
posited at a bank at a given interest rate for a certain number of years. Quantitative analysis can
also be used in computing financial ratios from the balance sheets for several companies whose
stock we are considering. Some real estate companies have developed computer programs that
use quantitative analysis to analyze cash flows and rates of return for investment property.
In addition to quantitative analysis, qualitative factors should also be considered. The
weather, state and federal legislation, new technological breakthroughs, the outcome of an elec-
tion, and so on may all be factors that are difficult to quantify.
Because of the importance of qualitative factors, the role of quantitative analysis in the
­
decision-making process can vary. When there is a lack of qualitative factors and when the prob-
lem, model, and input data remain the same, the results of quantitative analysis can automate the
decision-making process. For example, some companies use quantitative inventory models to
determine automatically when to order additional new materials. In most cases, however, quanti-
tative analysis will be an aid to the decision-making process. The results of quantitative analysis
will be combined with other (qualitative) information in making decisions.
Quantitative analysis has been particularly important in many areas of management. The
field of production management, which evolved into production/operations management (POM)
Quantitative analysis uses a
scientific approach to decision
making.
Both qualitative and quantitative
factors must be considered.
QAM Chapter 1.indd 2 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
1.3 Business Analytics 3
as society became more service oriented, uses quantitative analysis extensively. While POM
focuses on internal operations of a company, the field of supply chain management takes a more
complete view of the business and considers the entire process of obtaining materials from sup-
pliers, using the materials to develop products, and distributing these products to the final con-
sumers. Supply chain management makes extensive use of many management science models.
Another area of management that could not exist without the quantitative analysis methods pre-
sented in this book, and perhaps the hottest discipline in business today, is business analytics.
1.3 Business Analytics
Business analytics is a data-driven approach to decision making that allows companies to make
better decisions. The study of business analytics involves the use of large amounts of data, which
means that information technology related to the management of the data is very important. Sta-
tistical and quantitative analysis are used to analyze the data and provide useful information to
the decision maker.
Business analytics is often broken into three categories: descriptive, predictive, and pre-
scriptive. Descriptive analytics involves the study and consolidation of historical data for a
business and an industry. It helps a company measure how it has performed in the past and how
it is performing now. Predictive analytics is aimed at forecasting future outcomes based on
patterns in the past data. Statistical and mathematical models are used extensively for this pur-
pose. Prescriptive analytics involves the use of optimization methods to provide new and better
ways to operate based on specific business objectives. The optimization models presented in this
book are very important to prescriptive analytics. While there are only three business analytics
categories, many business decisions are made based on information obtained from two or three
of these categories.
Many of the quantitative analysis techniques presented in the chapters of this book are used
extensively in business analytics. Table 1.1 highlights the three categories of business analytics,
and it places many of the topics and chapters in this book in the most relevant category. Keep in
mind that some topics (and certainly some chapters with multiple concepts and models) could
possibly be placed in a different category. Some of the material in this book could overlap two or
even three of these categories. Nevertheless, all of these quantitative analysis techniques are very
important tools in business analytics.
BUSINESS ANALYTICS CATEGORY
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE
(CHAPTER)
Descriptive analytics • 
Statistical measures such as means and standard
deviations (Chapter 2)
• Statistical quality control (Chapter 15)
Predictive analytics • Decision analysis and decision trees (Chapter 3)
• Regression models (Chapter 4)
• Forecasting (Chapter 5)
• Project scheduling (Chapter 11)
• Waiting line models (Chapter 12)
• Simulation (Chapter 13)
• Markov analysis (Chapter 14)
Prescriptive analytics • 
Inventory models such as the economic order
quantity (Chapter 6)
• Linear programming (Chapters 7, 8)
• 
Transportation and assignment models (Chapter 9)
• 
Integer programming, goal programming, and
nonlinear programming (Chapter 10)
• Network models (Chapter 9)
The three categories of business
analytics are descriptive,
predictive, and prescriptive.
TABLE 1.1
Business Analytics and
Quantitative Analysis
Models
QAM Chapter 1.indd 3 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
4 Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis
1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach
The quantitative analysis approach consists of defining a problem, developing a model, acquir-
ing input data, developing a solution, testing the solution, analyzing the results, and implement-
ing the results (see Figure 1.1). One step does not have to be finished completely before the
next is started; in most cases, one or more of these steps will be modified to some extent before
the final results are implemented. This would cause all of the subsequent steps to be changed.
In some cases, testing the solution might reveal that the model or the input data are not correct.
This would mean that all steps that follow defining the problem would need to be modified.
Defining the Problem
The first step in the quantitative approach is to develop a clear, concise statement of the ­
problem.
This statement will give direction and meaning to the following steps.
In many cases, defining the problem is the most important and the most difficult step. It is
essential to go beyond the symptoms of the problem and identify the true causes. One problem
may be related to other problems; solving one problem without regard to other related problems
can make the entire situation worse. Thus, it is important to analyze how the solution to one
problem affects other problems or the situation in general.
It is likely that an organization will have several problems. However, a quantitative analysis
group usually cannot deal with all of an organization’s problems at one time. Thus, it is usually
necessary to concentrate on only a few problems. For most companies, this means selecting
those problems whose solutions will result in the greatest increase in profits or reduction in costs
to the company. The importance of selecting the right problems to solve cannot be overempha-
sized. Experience has shown that bad problem definition is a major reason for failure of manage-
ment science or operations research groups to serve their organizations well.
When the problem is difficult to quantify, it may be necessary to develop specific, measur-
able objectives. A problem might be inadequate health care delivery in a hospital. The objectives
might be to increase the number of beds, reduce the average number of days a patient spends
in the hospital, increase the physician-to-patient ratio, and so on. When objectives are used,
however, the real problem should be kept in mind. It is important to avoid obtaining specific and
measurable objectives that may not solve the real problem.
Developing a Model
Once we select the problem to be analyzed, the next step is to develop a model. Simply stated, a
model is a representation (usually mathematical) of a situation.
Even though you might not have been aware of it, you have been using models most of your
life. You may have developed models about people’s behavior. Your model might be that friend-
ship is based on reciprocity, an exchange of favors. If you need a favor such as a small loan, your
model would suggest that you ask a good friend.
Of course, there are many other types of models. Architects sometimes make a physical model
of a building that they will construct. Engineers develop scale models of chemical plants, called
pilot plants. A schematic model is a picture, drawing, or chart of reality. Automobiles, lawn mow-
ers, gears, fans, typewriters, and numerous other devices have schematic models (drawings and
FIGURE 1.1
The Quantitative
Analysis Approach
Concentrate on only a few
problems.
Defining the problem can be the
most important step.
The types of models include
physical, scale, schematic, and
mathematical models.
Quantitative analysis has been in existence since the beginning
of recorded history, but it was Frederick W. Taylor who in the early
1900s pioneered the principles of the scientific approach to man-
agement. During World War II, many new scientific and quantita-
tive techniques were developed to assist the military. These new
developments were so successful that after World War II many
companies started using similar techniques in managerial decision
making and planning. Today, many organizations employ a staff
of operations research or management science personnel or con-
sultants to apply the principles of scientific management to prob-
lems and opportunities.
The origin of many of the techniques discussed in this book
can be traced to individuals and organizations that have applied
the principles of scientific management first developed by Taylor;
they are discussed in History boxes scattered throughout the book
HISTORY The Origin of Quantitative Analysis
QAM Chapter 1.indd 4 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
1.4 the QuantItatIve analysIs approaCh 5
pictures) that reveal how these devices work. What sets quantitative analysis apart from other tech-
niques is that the models that are used are mathematical. A mathematical model is a set of mathe-
matical relationships. In most cases, these relationships are expressed in equations and inequalities,
as they are in a spreadsheet model that computes sums, averages, or standard deviations.
Although there is considerable flexibility in the development of models, most of the
models presented in this book contain one or more variables and parameters. A variable, as
the name implies, is a measurable quantity that may vary or is subject to change. Variables can
be controllable or uncontrollable. A controllable variable is also called a decision variable. An
example would be how many inventory items to order. A parameter is a measurable quantity
that is inherent in the problem. The cost of placing an order for more inventory items is an
example of a parameter. In most cases, variables are unknown quantities, while parameters are
known quantities. All models should be developed carefully. They should be solvable, realistic,
and easy to understand and modify, and the required input data should be obtainable. The
model developer has to be careful to include the appropriate amount of detail to be solvable yet
realistic.
Acquiring Input Data
Once we have developed a model, we must obtain the data that are used in the model (input
data). Obtaining accurate data for the model is essential; even if the model is a perfect represen-
tation of reality, improper data will result in misleading results. This situation is called garbage
in, garbage out. For a larger problem, collecting accurate data can be one of the most difficult
steps in performing quantitative analysis.
There are a number of sources that can be used in collecting data. In some cases, company
reports and documents can be used to obtain the necessary data. Another source is interviews
with employees or other persons related to the firm. These individuals can sometimes provide
excellent information, and their experience and judgment can be invaluable. A production super-
visor, for example, might be able to tell you with a great degree of accuracy the amount of time
it takes to produce a particular product. Sampling and direct measurement provide other sources
of data for the model. You may need to know how many pounds of raw material are used in
producing a new photochemical product. This information can be obtained by going to the plant
and actually measuring with scales the amount of raw material that is being used. In other cases,
statistical sampling procedures can be used to obtain data.
Developing a Solution
Developing a solution involves manipulating the model to arrive at the best (optimal) solution
to the problem. In some cases, this requires that an equation be solved for the best decision. In
other cases, you can use a trial and error method, trying various approaches and picking the one
that results in the best decision. For some problems, you may wish to try all possible values for
Operations research and Oil spills
operations researchers and decision scientists have been in-
vestigating oil spill response and alleviation strategies since long
before the BP oil spill disaster of 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. A
four-phase classification system has emerged for disaster re-
sponse research: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recov-
ery. Mitigation means reducing the probability that a disaster will
occur and implementing robust, forward-thinking strategies to
reduce the effects of a disaster that does occur. Preparedness is
any and all organization efforts that happen a priori to a disaster.
Response is the location, allocation, and overall coordination of
resources and procedures during the disaster that are aimed at
preserving life and property. Recovery is the set of actions taken
to minimize the long-term impacts of a particular disaster after
the immediate situation has stabilized.
Many quantitative tools have helped in areas of risk analysis,
insurance, logistical preparation and supply management, evac-
uation planning, and development of communication systems.
Recent research has shown that while many strides and discover-
ies have been made, much research is still needed. Certainly each
of the four disaster response areas could benefit from additional
research, but recovery seems to be of particular concern and per-
haps the most promising for future research.
Source: Based on N. Altay and W. Green. “OR/MS Research in Disaster
Operations Management,” European Journal of Operational Research 175, 1
(2006): 475–493
In ACTIOn
Garbage in, garbage out means
that improper data will result in
misleading results.
QAM Chapter 1.indd 5 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
6 Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis
the variables in the model to arrive at the best decision. This is called complete enumeration.
This book also shows you how to solve very difficult and complex problems by repeating a few
simple steps until you find the best solution. A series of steps or procedures that are repeated is
called an algorithm, named after Algorismus, an Arabic mathematician of the ninth century.
The accuracy of a solution depends on the accuracy of the input data and the model. If the
input data are accurate to only two significant digits, then the results can be accurate to only two
significant digits. For example, the results of dividing 2.6 by 1.4 should be 1.9, not 1.857142857.
Testing the Solution
Before a solution can be analyzed and implemented, it needs to be tested completely. Because
the solution depends on the input data and the model, both require testing.
Testing the input data and the model includes determining the accuracy and completeness of
the data used by the model. Inaccurate data will lead to an inaccurate solution. There are several
ways to test input data. One method of testing the data is to collect additional data from a differ-
ent source. If the original data were collected using interviews, perhaps some additional data can
be collected by direct measurement or sampling. These additional data can then be compared
with the original data, and statistical tests can be employed to determine whether there are dif-
ferences between the original data and the additional data. If there are significant differences,
more effort is required to obtain accurate input data. If the data are accurate but the results are
inconsistent with the problem, the model may not be appropriate. The model can be checked to
make sure that it is logical and represents the real situation.
Although most of the quantitative techniques discussed in this book have been computer-
ized, you will probably be required to solve a number of problems by hand. To help detect both
logical and computational mistakes, you should check the results to make sure that they are con-
sistent with the structure of the problem. For example, (1.96)(301.7) is close to (2)(300), which
is equal to 600. If your computations are significantly different from 600, you know you have
made a mistake.
Analyzing the Results and Sensitivity Analysis
Analyzing the results starts with determining the implications of the solution. In most cases, a
solution to a problem will result in some kind of action or change in the way an organization is
operating. The implications of these actions or changes must be determined and analyzed before
the results are implemented.
Because a model is only an approximation of reality, the sensitivity of the solution to
changes in the model and input data is a very important part of analyzing the results. This type
of analysis is called sensitivity analysis or postoptimality analysis. It determines how much the
solution will change if there were changes in the model or the input data. When the solution is
sensitive to changes in the input data and the model specification, additional testing should be
performed to make sure that the model and input data are accurate and valid. If the model or data
are wrong, the solution could be wrong, resulting in financial losses or reduced profits.
The importance of sensitivity analysis cannot be overemphasized. Because input data may
not always be accurate or model assumptions may not be completely appropriate, sensitivity
analysis can become an important part of the quantitative analysis approach. Most of the chap-
ters in the book cover the use of sensitivity analysis as part of the decision-making and problem-
solving process.
Implementing the Results
The final step is to implement the results. This is the process of incorporating the solution into
the company. This can be much more difficult than you would imagine. Even if the solution is
optimal and will result in millions of dollars in additional profits, if managers resist the new
solution, all of the efforts of the analysis are of no value. Experience has shown that a large
number of quantitative analysis teams have failed in their efforts because they have failed to im-
plement a good, workable solution properly.
After the solution has been implemented, it should be closely monitored. Over time, there
may be numerous changes that call for modifications of the original solution. A changing econ-
omy, fluctuating demand, and model enhancements requested by managers and decision makers
are only a few examples of changes that might require the analysis to be modified.
The input data and model
determine the accuracy of the
solution.
Testing the data and model
is done before the results are
analyzed.
Sensitivity analysis determines
how the solutions will change
with a different model or
input data.
QAM Chapter 1.indd 6 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 7
Defining the Problem
CSX Transportation, Inc., has 35,000 employees and annual revenue of $11 billion. It provides rail freight
services to 23 states east of the Mississippi River, as well as parts of Canada. CSX receives orders for rail
delivery service and must send empty railcars to customer locations. Moving these empty railcars results
in hundreds of thousands of empty-car miles every day. If allocations of railcars to customers is not done
properly, problems arise from excess costs, wear and tear on the system, and congestion on the tracks and
at rail yards.
Developing a Model
In order to provide a more efficient scheduling system, CSX spent 2 years and $5 million developing its
Dynamic Car-Planning (DCP) system. This model will minimize costs, including car travel distance, car han-
dling costs at the rail yards, car travel time, and costs for being early or late. It does this while at the same
time filling all orders, making sure the right type of car is assigned to the job, and getting the car to the
destination in the allowable time.
Acquiring Input Data
In developing the model, the company used historical data for testing. In running the model, the DCP uses
three external sources to obtain information on the customer car orders, the available cars of the type
needed, and the transit-time standards. In addition to these, two internal input sources provide informa-
tion on customer priorities and preferences and on cost parameters.
Developing a Solution
This model takes about 1 minute to load but only 10 seconds to solve. Because supply and demand are
constantly changing, the model is run about every 15 minutes. This allows final decisions to be delayed
until absolutely necessary.
Testing the Solution
The model was validated and verified using existing data. The solutions found using the DCP were found
to be very good compared to assignments made without DCP
Analyzing the Results
Since the implementation of DCP in 1997, more than $51 million has been saved annually. Due to the im-
proved efficiency, it is estimated that CSX avoided spending another $1.4 billion to purchase an additional
18,000 railcars that would have been needed without DCP. Other benefits include reduced congestion
in the rail yards and reduced congestion on the tracks, which are major concerns. This greater efficiency
means that more freight can ship by rail rather than by truck, resulting in significant public benefits. These
benefits include reduced pollution and greenhouse gases, improved highway safety, and reduced road
maintenance costs.
Implementing the Results
Both senior-level management who championed DCP and key car-distribution experts who supported the
new approach were instrumental in gaining acceptance of the new system and overcoming problems
during the implementation. The job description of the car distributors was changed from car allocators to
cost technicians. They are responsible for seeing that accurate cost information is entered into DCP, and
they also manage any exceptions that must be made. They were given extensive training on how DCP
works so they could understand and better accept the new system. Due to the success of DCP, other rail-
roads have implemented similar systems and achieved similar benefits. CSX continues to enhance DCP to
make DCP even more customer friendly and to improve car-order forecasts.
Source: Based on M. F. Gorman, et al. “CSX Railway Uses OR to Cash in on Optimized Equipment Distribution,” Interfaces 40,
1 (January–February 2010): 5 –16.
modeling in the real world
Railroad Uses Optimization
Models to Save Millions
QAM Chapter 1.indd 7 21-Dec-15 9:29:25 AM
Random documents with unrelated
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[1067] The estimates of numbers in all the operations throughout
the Conquest differ widely, sometimes very widely, according to
different authorities. The student will find much of the collation of
these opposing statements done for him in the notes of Prescott
and Bancroft.
[1068] Fac-simile of an engraving on copper in the edition of Solis
printed at Venice in 1715, p. 29. It is inscribed: “Cavato da vn
originale fatto iñazi chei si portassi alla Conqvista del Messico.”
[1069] Fac-simile of the copper plate in the Venice edition of Solis
Conquista (1715) inscribed “Cavato dall’originale venvto dal
Messico al Sermo G. D. di Toscana.”
[1070] H. H. Bancroft (Mexico, i. 378) and Prescott (new edition
vol. ii., p. 231) collate the authorities.
[1071] There are a variety of views as to the force Cortés now
commanded; cf. H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, i. 424.
[1072] Prescott (Mexico, new ed., ii. 309) collates the diverse
accounts.
[1073] It must be mentioned that the Spaniards have been accused
of murdering Montezuma. Bancroft (Mexico, i. 464) collates the
different views of the authorities. Cortes sent the body out of the
fort. Indignities were offered it; but some of the imperial party
got possession of it, and buried it with such honor as the times
permitted.
[1074] There are difficulties about the exact date; cf. H. H.
Bancroft, Mexico, i. 472.
[1075] Bancroft (Mexico, i. 488) collates the various authorities; so
does Prescott (Mexico, new ed., ii. 364) of the losses of this
famous triste Noche.
[1076] The figures usually given are enormous, and often greatly
vary with the different authorities. In this as in other cases where
numbers are mentioned, Prescott and Bancroft collate the several
reckonings which have been recorded.
[1077] Their chief was Juan Florin, who has been identified by
some with Verrazano.
[1078] H. H. Bancroft (Central Mexico, i. 626) collates as usual the
various estimates of Alvarado’s force.
[1079] There is some doubt whether the alleged plot was not, after
all, a fiction to cover the getting rid of burdensome personages.
H. H. Bancroft (Central America, i. 555) collates the various
views, but it does not seem that any unassailable conclusion can
be reached.
[1080] Part of a view of Acapulco as given in Montanus and Ogilby,
p. 261, showing the topography, but representing the later fort
and buildings. The same picture, on a larger scale, was published
by Vander Aa at Amsterdam. A plan of the harbor is given in
Bancroft’s Mexico, iii. 25. The place had no considerable
importance as a Spanish settlement till 1550 (Ibid., ii. 420). Cf.
the view in Gay’s Popular History of the United States, ii. 586.
[1081] The remains of Cortés have rested uneasily. They were
buried at Seville; but in 1562 his son removed them to New Spain
and placed them in a monastery at Tezcuco. In 1629 they were
carried with pomp to Mexico to the church of St. Francis; and
again, in 1794, they were transferred to the Hospital of Jesus
(Prescott, Mexico, iii. 465), where a monument with a bust was
placed over them. In 1823, when a patriotic zeal was turned into
the wildness of a mob, the tomb was threatened, and some
soberer citizens secretly removed the monument and sent it (and
later the remains) clandestinely to his descendant, the Duke of
Monteleone, in Palermo, where they are supposed now to be, if
the story of this secret shipment is true (Prescott, Mexico, iii.
335; Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., pp. 219, 220; Bancroft, Mexico, iii.
479, 480). Testimony regarding the earlier interment and
exhumation is given in the Coleccion de documentos inéditos
(España), xxii. 563. Cf. B. Murphy on “The Tomb of Cortés” in the
Catholic World, xxxiii. 24.
For an account of the family and descendants of Cortés, see
Bancroft, ii. 480; Prescott, iii. 336. The latter traces what little is
known of the later life of Marina (vol. iii. p. 279).
[1082] Those pertaining to Cortés in vols. i.-iv. of the Documentos
inéditos (España) had already appeared. Harrisse, Bibl. Amer.
Vet., pp. 213-215, enumerates the manuscripts which had been
collected by Prescott. Clavigero had given accounts of the
collections in the Vatican, at Vienna, and of those of Boturini, etc.
[1083] Sabin, vol. xx. no. 34,153. In the Introduction to both
volumes Icazbalceta discusses learnedly the authorship of the
various papers, and makes note of considerable bibliographical
detail. The edition was three hundred copies, with twelve on
large paper.
[1084] Vol. i. 281; see also ante, p. 215.
[1085] Vol. i. 368. This plan is given on an earlier page. Cf.
Bancroft, Early American Chroniclers, p. 15.
[1086] See chap. v. p. 343.
[1087] Mexico, ii. 96. A part of it was printed in the Documentos
inéditos as “Ritos antiquos... de las Indias.” Cf. Kingsborough, vol.
ix.
[1088] Mexico, i. 405.
[1089] Prescott, Mexico, ii. 147.
[1090] Sabin, vol. ix. nos. 34,154-34,156; Quaritch, Ramirez
Collection (1880), no. 89, priced it at £40.
[1091] This institution is clearly defined by Helps, iii. 141. Cf.
Bancroft, Central America, i. 250.
[1092] Prescott, Mexico, ii. 272; Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 373; Murphy
Catalogue, no. 2,092; Pinart-Brasseur Catalogue, no. 770. The
book has a portrait of Alvarado, and is enriched with notes by
Ramirez. The manuscript of the charges against Alvarado was
discovered in 1846 among some supposed waste-papers in the
Mexican Archives which the licentiate, Ignacio Rayon, was then
examining (Bancroft, Central America, ii. 104).
[1093] Mexico, ii. 9. Bancroft says he uses a copy made from one
which escaped the fire that destroyed so much in 1692, and
which belonged to the Maximilian Collection. Quaritch offered, a
few years since, as from the Ramirez Collection, for £175, the
Acts of the Municipality of Mexico, 1524-1564, in six manuscript
volumes. Bancroft (Mexico, iii. 508, etc.), enumerates the sources
of a later period.
[1094] Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, p. xxxiv.
[1095] There appeared in 1882, in two volumes, in the Biblioteca
de los Americanistas, a Historia de Guatemala ó recordación
Florida escrita el siglo XVII por el Capitán D. Francisco Antonio de
Fuentes y Guzman ... publica por primera vez con notas é
ilustraciones D. Justo Zaragoza.
[1096] Quaritch in his Catalogue, no. 321, sub 11,807, shows a
collection of forty-seven for £50, apparently the Ramirez
Collection. Cf. Sabin, vol. iii. no. 9,567, etc.
[1097] Mexico, vol. i. p. viii.
[1098] Indeed, the footnotes of Prescott are meagre by
comparison. The enumeration of the manuscript sources on the
Conquest given in Charton’s Voyageurs, iii. 420, shows what
provision of this sort was most to be depended on thirty years
ago. There is a set of nine folios in Harvard College Library,
gathered by Lord Kingsborough, called Documentos para el
historia de México y Peru. It includes some manuscripts; but they
are all largely, perhaps wholly, of a later period than the
Conquest.
[1099] Quaritch, who in his Catalogue of 1870 (no. 259, sub 376)
advertised for £105 the original manuscripts of three at least of
these councils (1555, 1565, 1585), intimates that they never
were returned into the Ecclesiastical Archives after Lorenzana had
used them in preparing an edition of the Proceedings of these
Councils which he published in 1769 and 1770,—Concilios
provinciales de México,—though in the third, and perhaps in the
first, he had translated apparently his text from the Latin
published versions. Bancroft describes these manuscripts in his
Mexico, ii. 685. The Acts of the First Council had been printed
(1556) before Lorenzana; but the book was suppressed, and the
Acts of the Third Council had been printed in 1622 in Mexico, and
in 1725 at Paris. The Acts of the Third also appeared in 1859 at
Mexico with other documents. The readiest source for the English
reader of the history of the measures for the conversion of the
Indians and for the relation of the Church to the civil authorities
in New Spain are sundry chapters (viii., xix., etc.) in Bancroft’s
Central America, and others (ix., xix., xxxi., xxxii.) in his Mexico.
(Cf. references in Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., p. 209.) The leading
Spanish authorities are Torobio Motolinia, Mendieta, and
Torquemada, all characterized elsewhere. Alonso Fernandez’
Historia eclesiástica de nuestros tiempos (Toledo, 1611) is full in
elucidation of the lives of the friars and of their study of the
native tongues. (Cf. Rich, 1832, £2 2s.; Quaritch, 1870, £5;
Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 190.) Gil Gonzales Davila’s Teatro eclesiástico
de la primitiva Iglesia de las Indias (Madrid, 1649-1655) is more
important and rarer (Quaritch, 1870, £8 8s.; Rosenthal, Munich,
1884, for 150 marks; Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 189). Of Las Casas and
his efforts, see the preceding chapter in the present volume.
The Orders of friars are made the subject of special treatment
in Bancroft’s Mexico. The Franciscans were the earliest to arrive,
coming, in response to the wish of Cortés, in 1524. There are
various histories of their labors,—Francisco Gonzaga’s De origine
seraphicæ religionis Franciscanæ, Rome, 1587 (Carter-Brown, i.
372); sections of Torquemada and the fourth part of Vetancour’s
Teatro Mexicano, Mexico, 1697-1698; Francisco Vasquez’
Chronica ... de Guatemala, 1714; Espinosa’s Chronica apostolica,
1746 (Sabin, vi. 239; Carter-Brown, iii. 827), etc. Of the
Dominicans we have Antonio de Remesal’s Historia de la S.
Vincent de Chyapa, Madrid, 1619 (Bancroft, Central America, ii.
339, 736), and Davilla Padilla’s Santiago de México, mentioned in
the text. Of the Augustinian friars there is Juan de Grijalva’s
Cronica, Mexico, 1624. Of the books on the Jesuits who came late
(1571, etc.), there is a note in Bancroft’s Mexico, iii. 447, showing
as of chief importance Francisco de Florencia’s Compañia de
Jesus (Mexico, 1694), while the subject was taken up under the
same title by Francisco Javier Alegre, who told the story of their
missions from 1566 in Florida to 1765. The manuscript of this
work was not printed till Bustamante edited it in 1841.
The legend or belief in our Lady of Guadalupe gives a
picturesque and significant coloring to the history of missions in
Mexico, since from the day of her apparition the native worship, it
is said, steadily declined. It is briefly thus: In 1531 a native who
had received a baptismal name of Juan Diego, passing a hill
neighboring to the city of Mexico, was confronted by a radiant
being who announced herself as the Virgin Mary, and who said
that she wished a church to be built on the spot. The native’s
story, as he told it to the Bishop, was discredited, until some
persons sent to follow the Indian saw him disappear
unaccountably from sight.
It was now thought that witchcraft more than a heavenly
interposition was the cause, until, again confronting the
apparition, Diego was bidden to take some roses which the Lady
had handled and carry them in his mantle to the Bishop, who
would recognize them as a sign. When the garment was unrolled,
the figure of the Virgin was found painted in its folds, and the
sign was accepted. A shrine was soon erected, as the Lady had
wished; and here the holy effigy was sacredly guarded, until it
found a resting-place in what is thought to be the richest church
in Mexico, erected between 1695 and 1709; and there it still is. It
has been at times subjected to some ecclesiastical scrutiny, and
there have been some sceptics and cavillers. Cf. Bancroft, Mexico,
ii. 407, and authorities there cited. Lorenzana in his Cartas
pastorales (1770) has given a minute account of the painting
(Carter-Brown, vol. iii. no. 1,749; Sabin, vol, xii. no. 56,199; and
the Coleccion de obras pertenecientes a la milagrosa aparicion de
Nuestra Señora de Guadalupe).
[1100] Carter-Brown, i. 496; Bancroft, Mexico, iii. 723. There is a
copy in Harvard College Library. There were later editions at
Brussels in 1625 (Carter-Brown, ii. 300; Stevens, Historical
Collection, i. 177), and again at Valladolid in 1634 as Varia
historia de la Nueva España y Florida, segunda impresion (Carter-
Brown, ii. 412).
[1101] We read in the 1596 edition (p. 670) that one Juan Pablos
was the first printer in Mexico, who printed, as early as 1535, a
religious manual of Saint John Climachus. The book, however, is
not now known (Sabin, vi. 229), and there is no indisputable
evidence of its former existence; though a similar story is told by
Alonzo Fernandez in his Historia eclesiástica (Toledo, 1611), and
by Gil Gonzales Davila in his Teatro eclesiástico (Madrid, 1649),—
who gives, however, the date as 1532. The Teatro is of further
interest for the map of the diocese of Michoacan and for the arms
of the different dioceses. It is in two volumes, and is worth from
thirty to forty dollars.
The subject of early printing in Mexico has been investigated
by Icazbalceta in the Diccionario universal de historia y de
geografia, v. 961 (published in Mexico in 1854), where he gives a
list of Mexican imprints prior to 1600 (Carter-Brown, i. 129, 130).
A similar list is given in connection with an examination of the
subject by Harrisse in his Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 232. Mr. John
Russell Bartlett gives another list (1540 to 1600) in the Carter-
Brown Catalogue, i. 131, and offers other essays on the subject
in the Historical Magazine, November, 1858, and February, 1865,
and again in the new edition of Thomas’s History of Printing
(Worcester, 1875), i. 365, appendix.
The earliest remaining example of the first Mexican press
which we have is a fragmentary copy of the Manual de adultos of
Cristóbal Cabrera, which was originally discovered in the Library
of Toledo, whence it disappeared, to be again discovered by
Gayangos on a London bookstall in 1870. It is supposed to have
consisted of thirty-eight leaves, and the printed date of Dec. 13,
1540, is given on one of the leaves which remain (Bibl. Amer.
Vet., no. 232; Additions, no. 123, with fac-similes, of which a part
is given in the Carter-Brown Catalogue, i. 131). Harrisse,
perhaps, is in error, as Quaritch affirms (Ramirez Collection, 1880,
no. 339), in assigning the same date, 1540, to an edition of the
Doctrina Christiana found by him at Toledo; and there seem to
have been one or two other books issued by Cromberger
(Catalogue Andrade, nos. 2,366, 2,367, 2,369, 2,477) before we
come to an acknowledged edition of the Doctrina Cristiana—
which for a long time was held to be the earliest Mexican imprint
—with the date of 1544. It is a small volume of sixty pages,
“impressa en México, en casa de Juan Cromberger” (Rich, 1832,
no. 14; Sabin, vol. iv, no. 16,777; Carter-Brown, i. 134, with fac-
similes of title; Bookworm, 1867, p. 114; Quaritch, no. 321, sub
12,551). Of the same date is Dionisio Richel’s Compendio breve
que tracta a’ la manera de como se hā de hazer las processiones,
also printed, as the earlier one was, by command of Bishop
Zumarraga, this time with a distinct date,—“Año de M. D. xliiij.” A
copy which belonged to the Emperor Maximilian was sold in the
Andrade sale (no. 2,667), and again in the Brinley sale (no.
5,317). Quaritch priced Ramirez’ copy in 1880 at £52.
The lists above referred to show eight separate issues of the
Mexican press before 1545. Icazbalceta puts, under 1548, the
Doctrina en Mexicano as the earliest instance known of a book
printed in the native tongue. Up to 1563, with the exception of a
few vocabularies and grammars of the languages of the country,
of the less than forty books which are known to us, nearly all are
of a theological or devotional character. In that year (1663) Vasco
de Puga’s Collection of Laws—Provisiones, cédulas, instrucciones
de su Majestad—was printed (Quaritch, Ramirez Collection, 1880,
no. 236, £30). Falkenstein in his Geschichte der
Buchdruckerkunst (Leipsic, 1840) has alleged, following Pinelo
and others, that a Collection of Laws—Ordinationes legumque
collectiones—was printed in 1649; but the existence of such a
book is denied. Cf. Thomas, History of Printing, i. 372; Harrisse,
Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 288.
[1102] Quaritch, Ramirez Collection (1880), no. 28, £15; Sabin, vol.
1. no. 3,349; Carter-Brown, iii. 893; Rich, Bibl. Nova Amer.
(1835), p. 95; Stevens, Bibliotheca historica, no. 126; Leclerc, no.
50,—400 francs; Field, Indian Bibliography, no. 79.
[1103] Navarrete first printed it in his Coleccion, i. 421; it was
included also in Vedia’s Historiadores primitivos de Indias
(Madrid, 1852); and Gayangos, in his Cartas de Hernan Cortés
(Paris, 1866) does not hesitate to let it stand for the first letter,
while he also annotates it. It is likewise printed in the Biblioteca
de autores Españoles, vol. xxii., and by Alaman in his
Disertaciones sobre la historia de la República Mejicana, vol. i.,
appendix, with a sketch of the expedition. Cf. Prescott’s Mexico, i.
360, iii. 428; H. H. Bancroft’s Mexico, i. 169.
[1104] Bancroft, Mexico, i. 170. It is supposed that still a third letter
went at the same time, which is now known to us. Three letters
of this time were found in 1866 among some old account-books
in a library sold in Austria. Two of them proved to be written in
Spain upon the news of Cortés’ discoveries, while one was written
by a companion of Cortés shortly after the landing on the
Mexican coast, but is not seemingly an original, for it is written in
German, and the heading runs: Newzeit wie unnsers aller-
gnadigistn hern des Romischn und hyspaenischn Koningsleut Ain
Costliche Newe Lanndschafft habn gefundn, and bears date June
28, 1519. There are some contradictions in it to the received
accounts; but these are less important than the mistake of a
modern French translator, who was not aware of the application
of the name of Yucatan, at that time, to a long extent of coast,
and who supposed the letters referred to Grijalva’s expedition.
The original text, with a modern German and French version,
appears in a small edition (thirty copies) which Frederic Muller, of
Amsterdam, printed from the original manuscript (cf. his Books
on America, 1872, no. 1,144; 1877, no. 2,296, priced at 120
florins) under the title of Trois lettres sur la découverte de
Yucatan, Amsterdam, 1871 (Carter-Brown, vol. i. no. 66; Muller,
Books on America, 1877, no. 2,296; C. H. Berendt in American
Bibliopolist, July and August, 1872; Murphy, no. 2,795).
One of the news-sheets of the time, circulated in Europe, is
preserved in the Royal Library at Berlin. A photo-lithographic fac-
simile was published (one hundred copies) at Berlin in 1873. It is
called: Newe Zeittung. von dem lande. das die Sponier funden
haben ym 1521. iare genant Iucatan. It is a small quarto in gothic
type, of four unnumbered leaves, with a woodcut. Cf. Bibl. Amer.
Vet., no. 70, with fac-simile of title; Carter-Brown, i. 69; Muller
(1877), no. 3,593; Sobolewski, no. 4,153.
[1105] Prescott used a copy taken from Muñoz’ transcript.
[1106] Cf. Prescott, Mexico, i. 262; Bancroft, Mexico, i. 72.
[1107] Cf. Stevens, Bibliotheca historica (1870), p. 103; Historical
Collections, i. 342; and the section on “Early Descriptions of
America” in the present work.
[1108] Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 179.
[1109] Sabin, vi. 126; Carter-Brown, i. 63.
[1110] Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 105.
[1111] Mexico, i. 547.
[1112] Cf. Harrisse Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 118; Carter-Brown, i. 71;
Brunet, ii. 310; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,933; Folsom, introduction to
his edition. The Lenox and Barlow libraries have most, if not all,
of the various early editions of the Cortés letters.
[1113] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,934; Carter-Brown, i. 73; Brunet, ii.
311; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 84; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 120;
Heber, vol. vii. no. 1,884; Ternaux, no. 27.
[1114] Cf. Carter-Brown, i. 81; Bibl. Amer. Vet., nos. 118, 125;
Brunet, ii. 312; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166; Huth, i. 353; C.
Fiske Harris, Catalogue, no. 896; Cooke Catalogue, vol. iii. no.
623; Sunderland, vol. ii. no. 3,479; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,947;
Panzer, vii. 466; Menzel, Bibl. Hist., part i. p. 269; Ternaux, p. 32;
Heber, vol. vi. no. 2,415 and ix. 910; Murphy Catalogue, no. 676;
Stevens, American Bibliographer, p. 85. The book, when it
contains the large folding plan of Mexico and the map of the Gulf
of Mexico, is worth about $100. The plan and map are missing
from the copy in the Boston Public Library. [D. 3101., 56, no. 1].
[1115] Cf. Brunet, ii. 312, and Supplément, col. 320; Carter-Brown,
i. 82, which shows a map with inscriptions in Italian; Bibl. Amer.
Vet., no. 129; Pinart, no. 262; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,951; Panzer,
vol. viii. no. 1,248; Court, nos. 90, 91; Heber, vol. vi. no. 1,002,
and x. 848; Walckenaer, no. 4,187. There are copies with another
colophon (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 130), connecting two printers with
it,—Lexona and Sabio. F. S. Ellis, London, 1884 (no. 60), priced a
copy at £52 10s., and Dufossé (no. 14,184) at 200 francs.
[1116] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,950, and xiii. 56,052; Bibl. Amer.
Vet., no. 119; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166.
[1117] It is very rare, but Tross, of Paris, had a copy in his hands in
1866.
[1118] Annexed herewith in fac-simile.
[1119] Cf. Arana, Bibliografía de obras anónimas (1882) no. 244.
[1120] Cf. the notice of Cortés in R. C. Sands’s Writings, vol. i.
[1121] The original edition of Lorenzana is usually priced at $10 to
$20. Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. nos. 16,938, 16,939, and vol. x. p. 462; H.
H. Bancroft, Mexico, iii. 378 (with a sketch of Lorenzana); Brunet,
Supplément, i. 321; Carter-Brown, vol. iii. no. 1,750; Leclerc, no.
155; Sobolewski, no. 3,767; F. S. Ellis (1884), £2 2s.
[1122] Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,942. Bancroft (Mexico, i. 549),
speaking of Gayangos’ edition, says: “Although a few of
Lorenzana’s blunders find correction, others are committed; and
the notes of the archbishop are adopted without credit and
without the necessary amendment of date, etc.,—which often
makes them absurd.”
[1123] The book is variously priced from $20 to $60. Cf. Bibl. Amer.
Vet., no. 168; Carter-Brown, vol. i. no. 100; Biblioteca
Grenvilliana, p. 167; Leclerc, no. 152; Sunderland, no. 3,480;
Pinart, no. 261; O’Callaghan, no. 683; Sabin, vol. iv. nos. 16,947-
16,949. There were also Latin versions in the Novus orbis of
Grynæus, 1555 and 1616.
[1124] The only copy known is noted in Tross’s Catalogue, 1866,
no. 2,881. It is in Roman letter, sixteen leaves.
[1125] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,953.
[1126] Cf. Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 297; Ternaux, p. 57; Trömel, p. 14;
Brunet, ii. 312; Stevens, Nuggets, i. 188; O’Callaghan, no. 989;
Sobolewski, no. 3,766; J. J. Cooke, iii. 624 (copy now in Harvard
College Library). It is usually priced at £2 or £3. Dufossé (1884,
no. 14,185) held a copy at 100 francs.
[1127] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,958.
[1128] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,959.
[1129] Cf. Carter-Brown, iii. 113.
[1130] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,962.
[1131] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,964.
[1132] Cf. on the second letter, Prescott, Mexico, Kirk’s ed., ii. 425.
[1133] Cf. Rich, (1832) no. 5,—£10 10s.; Stevens, American
Bibliographer, p. 84; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166; Panzer, vii.
122; Heber, vol. vii. no. 1,884; Ternaux, no. 26; Brunet, ii. 311;
Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 121; Carter-Brown, i. 74; Sabin, vol. iv. no.
16,935.
[1134] Priced by F. S. Ellis (1884) at £18 18s.
[1135] Cf. Carter-Brown, i. 83; Ternaux, no. 33; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no.
126; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 167; Brunet, ii. 312; Sabin, vol.
iv. no. 16,948; Stevens, American Bibliographer, p. 87. There is a
copy of the 1524 edition in the Boston Public Library. [D. 3101.
56, no. 2].
[1136] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,936; Carter-Brown, i. 85; Brunet, ii.
311; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 135; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166.
[1137] The only copy known is that in the Carter-Brown Library
(Catalogue, no. 88). Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,937; Bibl. Amer.
Vet., no. 138; Stevens, American Bibliographer, p. 85; Brunet, ii.
312; Panzer, x. 28; Heber, vol. vii. no. 1,884; Bibliotheca
Grenvilliana, p. 166; Ternaux, no. 34.
[1138] Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,940.
[1139] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,941; Carter-Brown, i. 84; Court, no.
89; Prescott, Mexico, iii. 248.
[1140] A letter about the Olid rebellion is lost; Helps, iii. 37.
[1141] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,943.
[1142] Cf. H. Vattemare in Revue contemporaine, 1870, vii. 532.
[1143] Prescott’s Mexico, iii. 266. Cf. references on this expedition
to Honduras in H. H. Bancroft’s Central America, i. 537, 567, 582;
ii. 144; and his Native Races, iv. 79. This Honduras expedition is
also the subject of one of Ixtlilxochitl’s Relaciones, printed in
Kingsborough’s ninth volume.
[1144] Cartas al Emperador (Sept. 11, 1526, Oct. 10, 1530), in
Documentos inéditos (España), i. 14, 31, and in Kingsborough’s
Mexico, vol. viii.; Memorial al Emperador (1539) in Documentos
inéditos, iv. 201. Cf. also Purchas, v. 858, and Ramusio, iii. 187.
His Última y sentidisima carta, Feb. 3, 1544, is given in
Documentos inéditos, i. 41, and in Prescott’s Mexico, Kirk’s ed., iii.
460. Other letters of Cortés are in the Pacheco Coleccion and in
that of Icazbalceta. The twelfth volume of the Biblioteca histórica
de la Iberia (Mexico, 1871), with the special title of Escritos
sueltos de Cortés, gives nearly fifty documents. Icazbalceta, in
the introduction of vol. i. p. xxxvii. of his Coleccion, gives a list of
the escritos sueltos of Cortés in connection with a full
bibliography of the series of Cartas, with corrections, derived
largely from Harrisse, in vol. ii. p. lxiii.
[1145] Mexico, i. 549, 696. “Ever ready with a lie when it suited his
purpose; but he was far too wise a man needlessly to waste so
useful an agent.”—Early American Chroniclers, p. 16.
[1146] Harrisse (Bibl. Amer. Vet.) gives numerous references on
Cortés. It is somewhat singular that there is no mention of him in
the Novus orbis of 1532, and none in De Bry. Mr. Brevoort
prepared the article on Cortés in Sabin’s Dictionary.
[1147] Ticknor, Spanish Literature, ii. 30; Prescott’s Mexico, i. 474,
and Peru, ii. 304, 457; H. H. Bancroft, Central America, i. 314, his
Mexico, and his Early American Chroniclers, p. 21.
[1148] There are curious stories about this book, in which there is
not entire accord with one another. The fact seems to be that
Bustamante got hold of the manuscript, and supposed it an
original work of Chimalpain, and announced it for publication in a
Spanish dress, as translated from the Nahuatl, under the title of
Historia de las conquistas de Hernando Cortés, under which name
it appeared in two volumes in Mexico in 1826 (Ticknor Catalogue,
p. 207). Bandelier and others referring to it have supposed it to
be what the title represented (Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., new
series, i. 84; cf. Bibl. Amer. Vet., p. 204); but it is printed in
Spanish nevertheless, and is nothing more than a translation of
Gomara. Bustamante in his preface does not satisfy the reader’s
curiosity, and this Mexican editor’s conduct in the matter has
been the subject of apology and suspicion. Cf. Quaritch’s
Catalogues, nos. 11,807, 12,043, 17,632; H. H. Bancroft, Central
America, i. 315; Sabin, vii. no. 27,753. Quaritch adds that
Bustamante’s text seems rather like a modern improvement of
Gomara than a retranslation, and that a manuscript apparently
different and called Chimalpain’s history was sold in the Abbé
Fischer’s sale in 1869.
[1149] It is a small folio, and has become extremely rare, owing,
perhaps, in part to the attempted suppression of it. Quaritch in
1883 priced a copy at £75. It should have two maps, one of the
Indies, the other of the Old World (Ternaux, no. 61; Carter-
Brown, nos. 177, 178; Sunderland, vol. iii. no. 7,575; Library of
an Elizabethan Admiral, 1883, no. 338; Leclerc, no. 2,779; Rich
(1832), no. 23, £10 10s.; Sabin, vol. vii. no. 27,724; Murphy, no.
1,062).
[1150] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 179, 180; Sabin, vol. vii. no.
27,725; Leclerc, 800 francs. Mr. J. C. Brevoort has a copy. Sabin
(no. 27,726) notes a Conquista de México (Madrid, 1553) which
he has not seen, but describes it at second hand as having the
royal arms where the Medina edition has the arms of Cortés, and
intimates that this last may have been the cause of the alleged
suppression.
[1151] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 187, 188, with a fac-simile of the
title of the former; and on p. 169 is noted another Saragossa
edition of 1555. Sabin, vol. vii. nos. 27,727, 27,728.
[1152] Historia de México, Juan Steelsio, and again Juan Bellero
(with his map); La historia general de las Indias, Steelsio. These
are in Harvard College Library. Sabin (vol. vii. nos. 27,729-27,732)
notes of these Antwerp editions,—Historia general, Nucio,
Steelsio, and Bellero; Historia de México, Bellero, Lacio, Steelsio;
and Conquista de México, Nucio. The Carter-Brown Catalogue
(nos. 189-193) shows the Historia de México with the Steelsio
and Bellero imprints, and copies of the Historia general with the
imprints of Bellero and Martin Nucio. Quaritch prices the Bellero
México at £5 5s. Rich priced it in 1832 at £3 3s. There is a
Steelsio México in the Boston Public Library. Cf. Huth Catalogue,
ii. 605; Murphy, nos. 1,057-1,059; Court, nos. 146, etc. Of the
later Spanish texts, that in Barcia’s Historiadores primitivos
(1748-1749) is mutilated; the best is that in the Biblioteca de
autores Españoles, published at Madrid in 1852.
[1153] Such, at least, is the condition of the copy in Harvard
College Library; while the two titles are attached to different
copies in the Carter-Brown Catalogue, vol. i. nos. 199, 210. The
México is also in the Boston Athenæum. Cf. O’Callaghan
Catalogue, no. 989. Sabin (vol. vii. nos. 27,734-27,735) says the
1555 title is a cancelled one. Mr. Brevoort possesses a Historia
generale delle Indie occidentali (Rome, 1556), which he calls a
translation of part i. Cf. Sabin, vol. vii. no. 27,736; Carter-Brown,
vol. i. no. 200. F. S. Ellis (1884, no. 111) prices a copy at £2 2s.
Sabin (no. 27,737) also notes a Gomara, as published in 1557 at
Venice, as the second part of a history, of which Cieza de Leon’s
was the first part.
[1154] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 232, 233, 250, 306, 541; Sabin,
vol. vii. nos. 27,739-27,745. The Historia general was published in
Venice in 1565 as the second part of a Historie dell’Indie, of
which Cieza de Leon’s Historie del Peru was the first part, and
Gomara’s Conquista di Messico (1566) was the third. This Italian
translation was made by Lucio Mauro. The three parts are in
Harvard College Library and in the Boston Public Library (Sabin,
vol. vii. no. 27,738).
[1155] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 273, 274, 314, 324, 334, 357, 371,
375; Sabin, vol. vii. nos. 27,746-27,750; Murphy, nos. 1,059,
1,061; O’Callaghan, no. 990. F. S. Ellis (1884, no. 108) prices the
1569 edition at £10 10s. The 1578 and 1558 editions are in
Harvard College Library,—the latter is called Voyages et
conquestes du Capitaine Ferdinand Courtois. Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no.
16,955. Harrisse says that Oviedo, as well as Gomara, was used
in this production. There were later French texts in 1604, 1605,
and 1606. Cf. Carter-Brown, vol. ii. nos. 34, 46; Rich (1832), no.
104; Sabin (vol. vii. no. 27,749) also says of the 1606 edition that
pp. 67-198 are additional to the 1578 edition.
[1156] Carter-Brown, vol. i. no. 323; Menzies, no. 814;
Crowninshield, no. 285; Rich (1832), no. 58; Brinley, no. 5,309;
Murphy, no. 1,060. There are copies of this and of the 1596
reprint in Harvard College Library; and of the 1578 edition in the
Massachusetts Historical Society’s Library and in Mr. Deane’s
Collection; cf. Vol. III. pp. 27, 204. An abridgment of Gomara had
already been given in 1555 by Eden in his Decades, and in 1577
in Eden’s History of Travayle; and his account was later followed
by Hakluyt.
[1157] The bibliography of Gomara in Sabin (vol. vii. p. 395) was
compiled by Mr. Brevoort. The Carter-Brown Catalogue (vol. i. p.
169) gives a list of editions; cf. Leclerc, no. 243, etc.
[1158] Bancroft (Mexico, ii. 339) gives references for tracing the
Conquerors and their descendants.
[1159] Mexico, ii. 146; cf. H. H. Bancroft, Early Chroniclers, p. 14.
[1160] Ibid., ii. 459.
[1161] Ibid., i. 473.
[1162] Bancroft speaks of the account’s “exceeding completeness,
its many new facts, and varied version” (Mexico, i. 697).
[1163] Scherzer (in his edition of Ximenes’ Las historias del origen
de los Indios de esta provincia de Guatemala, 1857) says that the
text as published is very incorrect, and adds that the original
manuscript is in the city library at Guatemala. Brasseur says he
has seen it there. It is said to have a memorandum to show that
it was finished in 1605 at Guatemala. We have no certain
knowledge of Diaz’ death to confirm the impression that he could
have lived to the improbable age which this implies. (Cf.
Magazine of American History, i. 129, 328-329.) There are two
editions of it, in different type, which have the seal of
authenticity. One was dated in 1632; the other, known as the
second edition, is without date, and has an additional chapter
(numbered wrongly ccxxii.) concerning the portents among the
Mexicans which preceded the coming of the Spaniards. It is
explained that this was omitted in the first edition as not falling
within the personal observation of Diaz. (Cf. Sabin, vol. vi. nos.
19,978, 19,979; Carter-Brown, ii. 387; Murphy, no. 790; Court,
nos. 106, 107; Leclerc, no. 1,115. Rich priced it in his day at $10;
it now usually brings about $30.) There are later editions of the
Spanish text,—one issued at Mexico in 1794-1795, in four small
volumes (Sabin, vol. vi. no. 19,980; Leclerc, no. 1,117, 40
francs); a second, Paris, 1837 (Sabin, vol. vi. no. 19,981); and
another, published in 1854, in two quarto volumes, with
annotations from the Cortés letters, etc. It is also contained in
Vedia’s edition of the Historiadores primitivos, vol. ii. There are
three German editions, one published at Hamburg in 1848, with a
preface by Karl Ritter, and others bearing date at Bonn, 1838 and
1843 (Sabin, vi. no. 19,986-19,987). There are two English
versions,—one by Maurice Keating, published at London in 1800
(with a large map of the Lake of Mexico), which was reprinted at
Salem, Mass., in 1803 (Sabin, vol. vi. nos. 19,984-19,985). Mr.
Deane points out how Keating, without any explanation, transfers
from chap. xviii. and other parts of the text sundry passages to a
preface. A second English translation,—Memoirs of Diaz,—by
John Ingram Lockhart, was published in London in 1844 (Sabin,
vol. vi. no. 19,983), and is also included in Kerr’s Voyages, vols.
iii. and iv. Munsell issued an abridged English translation by
Arthur Prynne at Albany in 1839 (Sabin, vol. vi. no. 19,982). The
best annotated of the modern issues is a French translation by D.
Jourdanet, Histoire véridique de la conquête de la Nouvelle
Espagne, Paris, 1876. In the following year a second edition was
issued, accompanied by a study on the human sacrifices of the
Aztecs, and enriched with notes, a bibliography, and a chapter
from Sahagun on the vices of the Mexicans. It also contained a
modern map of Mexico, showing the marches of Cortés; the map
of the valley, indicating the contraction of the lake (the same as
used by Jourdanet in other works), and a reproduction of a map
of the lake illustrating the operations of Cortés, which follows a
map given in the Mexican edition of Clavigero. A list of the
Conquistadores gives three hundred and seventy-seven names,
which are distinguished apart as constituting the followers of
Cortés, Camargo, Salcedo, Garay, Narvaez, and Ponçe de Leon.
This list is borrowed from the Diccionario universal de historia y
de geografia, ... especialmente sobre la república Mexicana,
1853-1856. (Cf. Norton’s Literary Gazette, Jan. 15, 1835, and
Revue des questions historiques, xxiii. 249.) This Diccionario was
published at Mexico, in 1853-1856, in ten volumes, based on a
similar work printed in Spain, but augmented in respect to
Mexican matters by various creditable collaborators, while vols.
viii., ix., and x. are entirely given to Mexico, and more particularly
edited by Manuel Orozco y Berra. The work is worth about 400
francs. The Cartas de Indias (Madrid, 1877) contained a few
unpublished letters of Bernal Diaz.
[1164] Sahagun’s study of the Aztec tongue was a productive one.
Biondelli published at Milan in 1858, from a manuscript by
Sahagun, an Evangelarium epistolarium et lectionarium Aztecum
sive Mexicanum, ex antiquo codice Mexicano nuper reperto; and
Quaritch in 1880 (Catalogue, p. 46, no. 261, etc.) advertised
various other manuscripts of his Sermones in Mexicano, etc.
Jourdanet in his edition (p. x.) translates the opinion of Sahagun
given by his contemporary and fellow-Franciscan, Fray Geronimo
Mendieta, in his Historia eclesiastica Indiana (Mexico, 1860) p.
633. There is a likeness of Sahagun in Cumplido’s edition of
Prescott’s Mexico, published at Mexico in 1846, vol. iii.
[1165] A part of the original manuscript of Sahagun was exhibited,
says Brinton (Aboriginal American Authors, p. 27), at the Congrès
des Américanistes at Madrid in 1881.
[1166] Field, Indian Bibliography, no. 1,348. Stevens (Historical
Collections, vol. i., no. 1,573) mentions a copy of this edition,
which has notes and collations with the original manuscript made
by Don J. F. Ramirez. Cf. Ticknor Catalogue, p. 316.
[1167] Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 208.
[1168] The book was called: La aparicion de Ntra. Señora de
Guadalupe de México, comprobada con la refutation del
argumento negativo que presenta Muñoz, fundandose en el
testimonio del P. Fr. Bernardino Sahagun; ó sea: Historia original
de este escritor, que altera la publicada en 1829 en el equivocado
concepto de ser la unica y original de dicho autor. Publícala,
precediendo una disertacion sobre la aparicion guadalupana, y
con notas sobre la conquista de México. Cf. Ticknor Catalogue, p.
46.
[1169] Spanish Conquest, ii. 346.
[1170] Magazine of American History (November, 1881) p. 378. Cf.
other estimates in H. H. Bancroft’s Mexico, i. 493, 696; Native
Races, iii. 231-236; Early Chroniclers, pp. 19, 20. Bernal Diaz and
Sahagun are contrasted by Jourdanet in the introduction to his
edition of the latter. Cf. also Jourdanet’s edition of Bernal Diaz
and the article on Sahagun by Ferdinand Denis in the Revue des
Deux Mondes.
[1171] Prescott’s Mexico, Kirk’s ed. ii. 38.
[1172] Prescott, Mexico, iii. 214.
[1173] Mr. Brevoort reviewed this edition in the Magazine of
American History.
[1174] Vols. x. and xvi. In one of these is the Chronica
Compendiosissima of Amandus (Antwerp, 1534), which contains
the letters of Peter of Ghent, or De Mura,—Recueil des pièces
relatives à la Conquête du Mexique, pp. 193-203. Cf. Sabin, vol. i.
no. 994.
[1175] Vol. xi. Zurita is also given in Spanish in the Coleccion de
documentos inéditos, vol. ii. (1865), but less perfectly than in
Ternaux. The document was written about 1560.
[1176] Vols. viii., xii., xiii.
[1177] Field, Indian Bibliography, nos. 1540-1541.
[1178] Ibid., no. 767.
[1179] Ibid., no. 766; Sabin, vol. ix. p. 168. Cf. Brinton, Aboriginal
American Authors, p. 15.
[1180] Prescott, Mexico, vol. i. pp. 163, 174, 206, 207; vol. iii. p.
105; and H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, vol. i. pp. 339, 697; vol. ii. p.
24; Kingsborough, vol. ix.
[1181] Brinton, Aboriginal American Literature, p. 24.
[1182] Icazbalceta, in his Apuntes para un Catálogo de Escritores
en lenguas indigenas de America (Mexico, 1866), gives a
summary of the native literature preserved to us. Cf. Brinton’s
Aboriginal American Authors, p. 14, etc., on natives who acquired
reputation as writers of Spanish.
[1183] Vol. i. p. lxxiv; and on p. lxxviii he gives accounts of various
manuscripts, chiefly copies, owned by himself. He also traces the
rise of his interest in American studies, while official position in
later years gave him unusual facilities for research. His
conclusions and arguments are often questioned by careful
students. Cf. Bandelier, in Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880,
p. 93.
[1184] In the introduction to this volume Brasseur reviews the
native writers on the Conquest. Bancroft (Mexico, vol. i. p. 493,
vol. ii. p. 488) thinks he hardly does Cortés justice, and is prone
to accept without discrimination the native accounts, to the
discredit of those of the conquerors. Brasseur gives abundant
references; and since the publication of the Pinart-Brasseur
Catalogue, we have a compact enumeration of his own library.
[1185] He enumerates a few of the treasures, vol. i. p. lxxvi.
[1186] The list is not found in all copies. Murphy Catalogue, p. 300.
F. S. Ellis (London, 1884) prices a copy at £2 2s.
[1187] Born at Puebla 1710; died 1780.
[1188] Published in three volumes in Mexico in 1836. Edited by C. F.
Ortega. Cf. Prescott, Mexico, book i. chap. i. Veytia also edited
from Boturini’s collection, and published with notes at Mexico in
1826, Tezcuco en los ultimos tiempos de sus antiguos reyes
(Murphy Catalogue, no. 428).
[1189] Aboriginal American Authors, p. 26, where are notices of
other manuscripts on Tlaxcalan history.
[1190] Cf. Nouvelles Annales des Voyages (1845), vol. ii. p. 129,
etc.
[1191] Prescott, Mexico, vol. ii. p. 286; Bancroft, Mexico, vol. i. p.
200.
[1192] Pinart-Brasseur Catalogue, no. 237.
[1193] Brinton’s Aboriginal American Authors, p. 26. Mr. A. F.
Bandelier is said to be preparing an edition of it.
[1194] Cf. Nouvelles Annales des Voyages, 1844-1849. Ternaux’s
translation is much questioned. Cf. also Kingsborough, vol. ix.,
and the Biblioteca Mexicana of Vigel, with notes by Orozco y
Berra.
[1195] Aboriginal American Authors, p. 28.
[1196] Bancroft, Central America, vol. i. p. 686. Bandelier has given
a partial list of the authorities on the conquest of Guatemala in
the Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880; and Bancroft (Central
America, vol. i. p. 703, vol. ii. p. 736) characterizes the principal
sources. Helps (end of book xv. of his Spanish Conquest)
complained of the difficulty in getting information of the
Guatemala affairs; but Bancroft makes use of all the varied
published collections of documents on Spanish-American history,
which contain so much on Guatemala; and to his hands,
fortunately, came also all the papers of the late E. G. Squier. A
Coleccion de Documentos Antiguos de Guatemala, published in
1857, has been mentioned elsewhere, as well as the Proceso
against Alvarado, so rich in helpful material. The general
historians must all be put under requisition in studying this
theme,—Oviedo, Gomara, Diaz, Las Casas, Ixtlilxochitl, and
Herrera, not to name others. Antonio de Remesal’s is the oldest
of the special works, and was written on the spot. His Historia de
Chyapa is a Dominican’s view; and being a partisan, he needs
more or less to be confirmed. A Franciscan friar, Francisco
Vasquez, published a Chronica de la Provincia del Santissimo
Nombre de Jesus de Guatemala in 1714, a promised second
volume never appearing. He magnified the petty doings of his
brother friars; but enough of historical interest crept into his
book, together with citations from records no longer existing, to
make it valuable. He tilts against Remesal, while he constantly
uses his book; and the antagonism of the Franciscans and
Dominicans misguides him sometimes, when borrowing from his
rival. He lauds the conquerors, and he suffers the charges of
cruelty to be made out but in a few cases (Bancroft, Central
America, vol. ii. pp. 142, 736). The Historia de Guatemala of
Francisco Antonio de Fuentes y Guzman is quoted by Bancroft
from a manuscript copy (Central America, vol. ii. p. 736), but it
has since been printed in Madrid in 1882-1883, in two volumes,
with annotations by Justo Zaragoza, as one of the series
Biblioteca de los Americanistes. Bancroft thinks he has many
errors and that he is far from trustworthy, wherever his partiality
for the conquerors is brought into play. The chief modern
historian of Guatemala is Domingo Juarros, who was born in that
city in 1752, and died in 1820. His Compendio de la historia de la
Ciudad de Guatemala was published there, the first volume in
1808 and the second in 1818; and both were republished in
1857. It was published in English in London in 1823, with
omissions and inaccuracies,—according to Bancroft. The story of
the Conquest is told in the second volume. Except so far as he
followed Fuentes, in his partiality for the conquerors, Juarros’
treatment of his subject is fair; and his industry and facilities
make him learned in its details. Bancroft (Central America, vol. ii.
pp. 142, 737) remarks on his omission to mention the letters of
Alvarado, and doubts, accordingly, if Juarros could have known of
them.
Of the despatches which Alvarado sent to Cortés, we know
only two. Bandelier (American Antiquarian Society’s Proceedings,
October, 1880) says that Squier had copies of them all; but
Bancroft (Central America, vol. i. p. 666), who says he has all of
Squier’s papers, makes no mention of any beyond the two,—of
April 11 and July 28, 1524,—which are in print in connection with
Cortés’ fourth letter, in Ramusio’s version, except such as are of
late date (1534-1541), of which he has copies, as his list shows
(Cf. also Ternaux, vol. x., and Barcia, vol. i. p. 157). Ternaux is
said to have translated from Ramusio. Oviedo uses them largely,
word for word. Herrera is supposed to have used a manuscript
History of the Conquest of Guatemala by Gonzalo de Alvarado.
[1197] Prescott, Mexico, vol. ii. p. 165.
[1198] A copy is in the Force Collection, Library of Congress, and
another in Mr. Bancroft’s, from whose Mexico, vol. i. p. 461, we
gather some of these statements.
[1199] Cf. Backer, Bibliothèque des écrivains de la Compagnie de
Jésus; Markham’s introduction to his edition of Acosta in the
Hakluyt Society’s publications.
[1200] The original edition of the De natura is scarce. Rich priced it
at £1 1s. fifty years ago; Leclerc, no. 2,639, at 150 francs (cf.
also Carter-Brown, i. 379; Sabin, i. 111,—for a full account of
successive editions; Sunderland, i. 23). It was reprinted at
Salamanca in 1595, and at Cologne in 1596. The latter edition
can usually be bought for $3 or $4. Cf. Field, no. 9; Stevens,
Bibliotheca Historica, no. 9; Murphy, no. 11, etc.
[1201] Rich priced it in 1832 at £1 10s.; ordinary copies are now
worth about £2 or £3, but fine copies in superior binding have
reached £12 12s. (Cf. Leclerc, no. 5—200 francs; Sunderland, i.
24; J. A. Allen, Bibliography of Cetacea, p. 24,—where this and
other early books on America are recorded with the utmost care.)
Other Spanish editions are Helmstadt, 1590 (Bartlett); Seville,
1591 (Brunet, Backer); Barcelona, 1591 (Carter-Brown, i. 478;
Leclerc, no. 7); Madrid, 1608 (Carter-Brown, ii, 61; Leclerc, no. 8)
and 1610 (Sabin); Lyons, 1670; and Madrid, 1792, called the best
edition, with a notice of Acosta.
The French editions followed rapidly: Paris, by R. Regnault,
1597 (Brunet, Markham); 1598 (Leclerc, no. 10—100 francs;
Dufossé, 125 francs, 140 francs, 160 francs); 1600 (Leclerc, no.
11; Bishop Huet’s copy in the Bibliothèque Nationale at Paris has
notes which are printed by Camus in his book on De Bry); 1606
(Leclerc, nos. 12, 13); 1616 (Carter-Brown, ii. 177; Leclerc, no.
2,639—50 francs); 1617 (Leclerc, no. 14); 1619 (Sabin); 1621
(Rich). An Italian version, made by Gallucci, was printed at Venice
in 1596 (Leclerc, no. 15).
There were more liberties taken with it in German. It was
called Geographische und historische Beschreibung der America,
when printed at Cologne in 1598, with thirty maps, as detailed in
the Carter-Brown Catalogue, i. 520. Antonio (Biblioteca Hispana
Nova) gives the date 1599. At Cologne again in 1600 it is called
New Welt (Carter-Brown, i. 548), and at Wesel, in 1605, America
oder West India, which is partly the same as the preceding
(Carter-Brown, ii. 31). Antonio gives an edition in 1617.
The Dutch translation, following the 1591 Seville edition, was
made by Linschoten, and printed at Haarlem in 1598 (Leclerc, no.
16); and again, with woodcuts, in 1624 (Carter-Brown, ii. 287;
Murphy, no. 9). It is also in Vander Aa’s collection, 1727. It was
from the Dutch version that it was turned (by Gothard Arthus for
De Bry in his Great Voyages, part ix.) into German, in 1601; and
into Latin, in 1602 and 1603.
The first English translation did not appear till 1604, at
London, as The naturall and morall historie of the East und West
Indies. Intreating of the remarkable things of Heaven, of the
Elements, Mettalls, Plants, and Beasts which are proper to that
Country; Together with the Manners, Ceremonies, Lawes,
Governements, and Warres of the Indians. Written in Spanish by
Ioseph Acosta, and translated into English by E[dward]
G[rimston]. Rich priced it fifty years ago at £1 16s.; it is usually
priced now at from four to eight guineas (cf. Carter-Brown, ii. 21;
Field, no. 8; Menzies, no. 4; Murphy, no. 8). It was reprinted,
with corrections of the version, and edited by C. R. Markham for
the Hakluyt Society in 1880.
[1202] This is extremely rare. Quaritch, who said in 1879 that only
three copies had turned up in London in thirty years, prices an
imperfect copy at £5. (Catalogue, no. 326 sub. no. 17,635.)
It is worth while to note how events in the New World, during
the early part of the sixteenth century, were considered in their
relation to European history. Cf. for instance, Ulloa’s Vita
dell’imperator Carlo V. (Rome, 1562), and such chronicles as the
Anales de Aragon, first and second parts. Harrisse (Bibl. Amer.
Vet. and Additions), and the Carter-Brown Catalogue (vol. i.) will
lead the student to this examination, in their enumeration of
books only incidentally connected with America. To take but a
few as representative:
Maffeius, Commentariorum urbanorum libri, Basle, 1530, with
its chapter on “loca nuper reperta.” (Harrisse, Additions, no. 93;
edition of 1544, Bibl. Amer. Vet. no. 257, and Additions, no. 146.
Fabricius cites an edition as early as 1526.)
Laurentius Frisius, Der Cartha Marina, Strasburg, 1530.
(Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 151; Additions, no. 90.)
Gemma Phrysius, De Principiis Astronomiæ et Cosmographicæ,
with its cap. xxix., “De insulis nuper inventis.” (Harrisse, Bibl.
Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 92.) There are later editions in 1544
(Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 252), 1548; also Paris, in French, 1557, etc.
Sebastian Franck, Weltbuch, Tübingen, 1533-1534, in which
popular book of its day a separate chapter is given to America.
The book in this first edition is rare, and is sometimes dated
1533, and again 1534. (Cf. Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., nos. 174,
197; Sabin, vi. 570; Carter-Brown, i. 111; Muller, 1877, no. 1,151;
H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, i. 250.) There was another edition in 1542
(Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 238; Stevens, Bbliotheca Historica, no. 738),
and later in Dutch and German, in 1558, 1567, 1595, etc.
(Leclerc, nos. 212, 217, etc.).
George Rithaymer, De orbis terrarum, Nuremberg, 1538, with
its “De terris et insulis nuper repertis” (Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions,
no. 119).
Achilles P. Gassarum, Historiarum et chronicarum mundi
epitomes libellus, Venice, 1538, with its “insulæ in oceano
antiquioribus ignotæ.”
Ocampo, Chronica general de España, 1543, who, in
mentioning the discovery of the New World, forgets to name
Columbus (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 242; Sabin, vol. xiii.).
Guillaume Postel, De orbis terræ concordia, Basle, about 1544
(Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 145).
John Dryander, Cosmographiæ introductio, 1544 (Bibl. Amer.
Vet., Additions, no. 147).
Biondo, De ventis et navigatione, Venice, 1546, with cap. xxv.
on the New World (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 274).
Professor J. R. Seeley, in his Expansion of England (p. 78), has
pointed out how events in the New World did not begin to react
upon European politics, till the attacks of Drake and the English
upon the Spanish West Indies instigated the Spanish Armada,
and made territorial aggrandizement in the New World as much a
force in the conduct of politics in Europe as the Reformation had
been. The power of the great religious revolution gradually
declined before the increasing commercial interests arising out of
trade with the New World.
[1203] Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 667. He died in 1604.
[1204] Sabin, vol. xii. no. 47,812. Icazbalceta showed Torquemada’s
debt to Mendieta by collations. (Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 668.) No
author later than Torquemada cites it. Barcia was not able to find
it, and it was considered as hopelessly lost. In 1860 its editor was
informed that the manuscript had been found among the papers
left by D. Bartolomé José Gallardo. Later it was purchased by D.
José M. Andrade, and given to Icazbalceta, at whose expense it
has been published (Boston Public Library Catalogue).
[1205] Carter-Brown, ii. 176; Sunderland, vol. v. no. 12,536. Some
of the bibliographies give the date 1613, and the place Seville. Cf.
further on Torquemada, Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 786; Early American
Chroniclers, p. 23; Prescott, Mexico, i. 53.
[1206] Carter-Brown, iii. 339; Leclerc, no. 370; Field, no. 1,557;
Court, no. 354. It is in three volumes. Kingsborough in his eighth
volume gives some extracts from Torquemada.
[1207] Baptista published various devotional treatises in both
Spanish and Mexican, some of which, like his Compassionario of
1599, are extremely rare. Cf. Leclerc, no. 2,306; Quaritch, The
Ramirez Collection, 1880, nos. 25, 26.
[1208] Again in four volumes, Mexico, 1870-1871. Cf. Bancroft,
Mexico, iii. 507.
[1209] Carter-Brown, vol. ii. no. 1,300.
[1210] Mexico, i. 187.
[1211] Spanish Literature, vol. iii. no. 196.
[1212] Cf., for accounts and estimates, Ticknor, Spanish Literature,
vol. iii. no. 196; Prescott, Mexico, vol. iii. p. 208; Bancroft,
Mexico, vol. i. pp. 186, 697; Early Chroniclers, p. 22. Editions of
Solis became, in time, numerous in various languages. Most of
them may be found noted in the following list:—
In Spanish. Barcelona, 1691, accompanied by a Life of Solis,
by Don Juan de Goyeneche, Madrid, 1704, a good edition;
Brussels, 1704, with numerous plates; Madrid, 1732, two
columns, without plates; Brussels, 1741, with Goyeneche’s Life;
Madrid, 1748, said to have been corrected by the author’s
manuscript; Barcelona, 1756; Madrid, 1758; Madrid, 1763;
Barcelona, 1771; Madrid, 1776; Madrid, 1780; Madrid, 1783-
1784,—a beautiful edition, called by Stirling “the triumph of the
press of Sancha” (cf. Ticknor Catalogue, p. 335; Carter-Brown,
vol. ii. no. 1,300); Barcelona, 1789; Madrid, 1791, 1798, 1819,
1822; Paris, 1827; Madrid, 1828, 1829, 1838; Barcelona, 1840;
Paris, 1858, with notes. Sabin (vol. iv. nos. 16,944-16,945) gives
abridged editions,—Barcelona, 1846, and Mexico, 1853. An
edition, London, 1809, is “Corregida por Augustin Luis Josse,” and
is included in the Biblioteca de autores españoles, in 1853.
In French. The earliest translation was made by Bon André de
Citri et de la Guette, and appeared with two different imprints in
Paris in 1691 in quarto (Carter-Brown, vol. ii. 1427-1428). Other
editions followed,—La Haye, 1692, in 12mo; Paris, 1704, with
folding map and engravings reduced from the Spanish editions;
Paris, 1714, with plates; Paris, 1730, 1759, 1774, 1777, 1844,
etc.; and a new version by Philippe de Toulza, with annotations,
published in Paris in 1868.
In Italian. The early version was published at Florence in 1699,
with portraits of Solis, Cortés, and Montezuma (Carter-Brown,
vol. ii. no. 1,577). An edition at Venice in 1704 is without plates;
but another, in 1715, is embellished. There was another at Venice
in 1733.
In Danish. Copenhagen, 1747 (Carter-Brown, vol. iii. no. 859).
In English. Thomas Townsend’s English version was published
in London in 1724, and was reissued, revised by R. Hooke in
1753, both having a portrait of Cortés, by Vertue, copied “after a
head by Titian,” with other folding plates based on those of the
Spanish editions (Carter-Brown, vol. iii. nos. 350, 588; Field,
Indian Bibliography, nos. 1,464, 1,465). There were later editions
in 1753.
It was when he was twenty-eight years old, that Prescott took
his first lesson in Spanish history in reading Solis, at Ticknor’s
recommendation.
[1213] The story as the English had had it up to this time—except
so far as they learned it in translations of Solis—may be found in
Burke’s European Settlements in America, 1765, part i. pp. 1-166.
[1214] Sabin, vol. iv. no. 13,518. It was written in Spanish, but
translated into Italian for publication. A Spanish version, Historia
Antigua de Mégico, made by Joaquin de Mora, was printed in
London in 1826, and reprinted in Mexico in 1844 (Leclerc, nos.
1,103, 1,104, 2,712). A German translation, Geschichte von
Mexico, was issued at Leipsic in 1789-1790, with notes. This
version is not made from the original Italian, but from an English
translation printed in London in 1787 as The History of Mexico,
translated by Charles Cullen. It was reprinted in London in 1807,
and in Philadelphia in 1817 (Field, Indian Bibliography, p. 326).
[1215] Early American Chronicles, p. 24.
[1216] Bancroft, Mexico, i. 697; also Prescott, Mexico, i. 53.
[1217] Bancroft, Mexico, i. 700; Leclerc, no. 846.
[1218] Bibliotheca Historica, no. 377.
[1219] There is a portrait of Clavigero in Cumplido’s edition of
Prescott’s Mexico (1846), vol. iii.
[1220] Voyageurs, iii. 422.
[1221] Mr. H. H. Bancroft (Mexico, vol. i, p. 7, note), however,
charges his predecessor with parading his acquisition of this then
unprinted material, and with neglecting the more trustworthy and
more accessible chroniclers. He also speaks (Mexico, i. 701) of an
amiable weakness in Prescott which sacrificed truth to effect, and
to a style which he calls “magnificent,” and to a “philosophic flow
of thought,”—the latter trait in Prescott being one of his weakest;
nor is his style what rhetoricians would call “magnificent.”
[1222] Mr. R. A. Wilson makes more of it than is warranted, in
affirming that “Prescott’s inability to make a personal research”
deprives us of the advantage of his integrity and personal
character (New Conquest of Mexico, p. 312).
[1223] Ticknor’s Prescott, quarto edition, pp. 167-172.
[1224] It was soon afterward reprinted in London and in Paris.
[1225] Cf. the collation of criticisms on the Mexico, given by
Allibone in his Dictionary of Authors, and by Poole in his Index to
Periodical Literature. Archbishop Spalding, in his Miscellanea,
chapters xiii. and xiv., gives the Catholic view of his labors; and
Ticknor, in his Life of Prescott, prints various letters from Hallam,
Sismondi, and others, giving their prompt expressions regarding
the book. In chapters xiii., xiv., and xv. of this book the reader
may trace Prescott through the progress of the work, not so
satisfactorily as one might wish however, for in his diaries and
letters the historian failed often to give the engaging qualities of
his own character. It is said that Carlyle, when applied to for
letters of Prescott which might be used by Ticknor in his Life of
the historian, somewhat rudely replied that he had never received
any from Prescott worth preserving. Prescott’s library is,
unfortunately, scattered. He gave some part of it to Harvard
College, including such manuscripts as he had used in his
Ferdinand and Isabella; and some years after his death a large
part of it was sold at public auction. It was then found that, with
a freedom which caused some observation, the marks of his
ownership had been removed from his books. Many of his
manuscripts and his noctograph were then sold, perhaps through
inadvertence, for the family subsequently reclaimed what they
could. The noctograph and some of the manuscripts are now in
the cabinet of the Massachusetts Historical Society (cf.
Proceedings, vol. xiii. p. 66), and other manuscripts are in the
Boston Public Library (Bulletin of Boston Public Library, iv. 122). A
long letter to Dr. George E. Ellis, written in 1857, and describing
his use of the noctograph, is in the same volume (Proceedings,
vol. xiii. p. 246). The estimate in which Prescott was held by his
associates of that Society may be seen in the records of the
meeting at which his death was commemorated, in 1859
(Proceedings, iv. 167, 266). There is a eulogy of Prescott by
George Bancroft in the Historical Magazine, iii. 69. Cf. references
in Poole’s Index, p. 1047.
[1226] Philadelphia and London, 1859.
[1227] This correspondence was civil, to say the least. Bancroft
(Mexico, i. 205), with a rudeness of his own, calls Wilson “a fool
and a knave.”
[1228] American Ethnological Society Transactions, vol. i.
[1229] Also in Boston Daily Courier, May 3, 1859. Cf. Mass. Hist.
Soc. Proc. v. 101; Atlantic Monthly, April and May, 1859, by John
Foster Kirk; Allibone’s Dictionary, vol. ii. p. 1669. L. A. Wilmer, in
his Life of De Soto (1859) is another who accuses Prescott of
accepting exaggerated statements. Cf. J. D. Washburn on the
failure of Wilson’s arguments to convince, in Amer. Antiq. Soc.
Proc., October 21, 1879, p. 18.
[1230] Edition of 1874, ii. 110.
[1231] Page 147.
[1232] Born about 1817, and knighted in 1872.
[1233] Indian Bibliography, no. 682.
[1234] Cf. H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 488.
[1235] Cf. Revue des deux mondes, 1845, vol. xi. p. 197. The book
was later translated into English. He also published in 1863 and in
1864 Le Mexique ancien et moderne, which was also given in an
English translation in London in 1864. Cf. British Quarterly
Review, xl. 360.
[1236] Ruge, in his Geschichte des Zeitalters der Entdeckungen,
tells the story with the latest knowledge.
[1237] Both books command good prices, ranging from $25 to $50
each.
[1238] Mexico, i. 697; ii. 788,—where he speaks of N. de Zamacois’
Historia de Méjico, Barcelona, 1877-1880, in eleven volumes, as
“blundering;” and Mora’s Méjico y sus Revoluciones, Paris, 1836,
in three volumes, as “hasty.” Bancroft’s conclusion regarding what
Mexico itself has contributed to the history of the Conquest is
“that no complete account of real value has been written.” Andrés
Cavo’s Tres siglos de México (Mexico, 1836-1838, in three
volumes) is but scant on the period of the Conquest (Bancroft,
Mexico, iii. 508). It was reprinted in 1852, with notes and
additions by Bustamante, and as part of the Biblioteca Nacional y
Extranjera, and again at Jalapa in 1860.
[1239] Vol. ii. chaps. xxi. and xxx., p. 648.
[1240] Mexico, ii. 455-456.
[1241] Carter-Brown, vol. ii. no. 1,350.
[1242] Rich, 1832, no. 422; Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 650. It was
reprinted at Mérida in 1842, and again in 1867.
[1243] Leclerc, nos. 1,172, 2,289. Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October,
1880, p. 85, where will be found Bandelier’s partial bibliography
of Yucatan.
[1244] Cf. Field. 1605; Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880, p.
89. The book is not so rare as it is sometimes claimed; Quaritch
usually prices copies at from £2 to £5.
[1245] Field, p. 522.
[1246] The Registro Yucateco, a periodical devoted to local
historical study, and published in Mérida, only lived for two years,
1845-1846.
[1247] Cf. Sabin, vol. ii. no. 6,834, and references. There is a copy
of Boturini Benaduci in Harvard College Library. A portrait of him
is given in Cumplido’s edition of Prescott’s Mexico, vol. iii.
[1248] It is rare. Quaritch in 1880 priced Ramirez’ copy at £12. It
was printed, “Mexici in Ædibus Authoris.”
[1249] Trübner, Bibliographical Guide, p. xiii.
[1250] It contained nearly fourteen hundred entries about Mexico,
or its press. Another collection, gathered by a gentleman
attached to Maximilian’s court, was sold in Paris in 1868; and still
another, partly the accumulation of Père Augustin Fischer, the
confessor of Maximilian, was dispersed in London in 1869 as a
Biblioteca Mejicana. Cf. Jackson’s Bibliographies Géographiques,
p. 223.
[1251] Many of these afterwards appeared in B. Quaritch’s Rough
List, no. 46, 1880. The principal part of a sale which included the
libraries of Pinart and Brasseur de Bourbourg (January and
February, 1884) also pertained to Mexico and the Spanish
possessions.
[1252] Cf. for instance his Native Races, iv. 565; Central America, i.
195; Mexico, i. 694, ii. 487, 784; Early Chroniclers, p. 19, etc. It is
understood that his habit has been to employ readers to excerpt
and abstract from books, and make references. These slips are
put in paper bags according to topic. Such of these memoranda
as are not worked into the notes of the pertinent chapter are
usually massed in a concluding note.
[1253] The general bibliographies of American history are examined
in a separate section of the present work and elsewhere in the
present chapter something has been said of the bibliographical
side of various other phases of the Mexican theme. Mr. A. F.
Bandelier has given a partial bibliography of Yucatan and Central
America, touching Mexico, however, only incidentally, in the Amer.
Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880. Harrisse, in his Bibl. Amer. Vet.,
p. 212, has given a partial list of the poems and plays founded
upon the Conquest. Others will be found in the Chronological List
of Historical Fiction published by the Boston Public Library.
Among the poems are Gabriel Lasso de la Vega’s Cortés Valeroso,
1588, republished as Mexicana in 1594 (Maisonneuve, no. 2,825
—200 francs); Saavedra Guzman’s El Peregrino indiano, Madrid,
1599 (Rich, 1832, no. 86, £4 4s.); Balbuena’s El Bernardo, a
conglomerate heroic poem (Madrid, 1624), which gives one book
to the Conquest by Cortés (Leclerc, no. 48—100 francs);
Boesnier’s Le Mexique Conquis, Paris, 1752; Escoiquiz, México
Conquistada, 1798; Roux de Rochelle, Ferdinand Cortez; P. du
Roure, La Conquête du Mexique.
Among the plays,—Dryden’s Indian Emperor (Cortés and
Montezuma); Lope de Vega’s Marquez del Valle; Fernand de
Zarate’s Conquista de México; Canizares, El Pleyto de Fernan
Cortes; F. del Rey, Hernand Cortez en Tabasco; Piron, Cortes;
Malcolm MacDonald, Guatemozin (Philadelphia, 1878), etc.
[1254] Dr. Kohl’s studies on the course of geographical discovery
along the Pacific coast were never published. He printed an
abstract in the United States Coast Survey Report, 1855, pp. 374,
375. A manuscript memoir by him on the subject is in the library
of the American Antiquarian Society (Proceedings, 23 Apr. 1872,
pp. 7, 26) at Worcester. So great advances in this field have since
been made that it probably never will be printed. There is a
chronological statement of explorations up the Pacific coast in
Duflot de Mofras’ Exploration du territoire de l’Orégon (Paris,
1844), vol. i. chap. iv.; but H. H. Bancroft’s Pacific States,
particularly his Northwest Coast, vol. i., embodies the fullest
information on this subject. In the enumeration of maps in the
present paper, many omissions are made purposely, and some
doubtless from want of knowledge. It is intended only to give a
sufficient number to mark the varying progress of geographical
ideas.
[1255] See ante, pp. 106, 115.
[1256] Cf. maps ante, on pp. 108, 112, 114, 127.
[1257] This map is preserved in the Royal Library at Munich, and is
portrayed in Kunstmann’s Atlas, pl. iv., and in Stevens’s Notes, pl.
v. Cf. Kohl, Discovery of Maine (for a part), no. 10; and Harrisse’s
Cabots, p. 167.
[1258] Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 131.
[1259] A sketch of the map is given by Lelewel, pl. xlvi.
[1260] The Novus Orbis (Paris) has sometimes another map; but
Harrisse says the Finæus one is the proper one. Bibl. Amer. Vet.,
nos. 172, 173.
[1261] Vol. III. p. 11. This reduction, there made from Stevens’s
Notes, pl. iv., is copied on a reduced scale in Bancroft’s Central
America, vol. i. p. 149. Stevens also gives a fac-simile of the
original, and a greatly reduced reproduction is given in Daly’s
Early Cartography. Its names, as Harrisse has pointed out
(Cabots, p. 182), are similar to the two Weimar charts of 1527
and 1529. The bibliography of this Paris Grynæus is examined
elsewhere.
[1262] Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 127.
[1263] Brit. Mus. Cat. of Maps, 1844, p. 22.
[1264] Vol. for 1877, p. 359. Cf. the present History, Vol. I. p. 214;
IV. 81.
[1265] See Vol. III. p. 18.
[1266] Epilogue, p. 219.
[1267] This edition was in small octavo, with sixty maps, engraved
on metal, of which there are seven of interest to students of
American cartography. They are of South America (no. 54), New
Spain (no. 55), “Terra nova Bacalaos” or Florida to Labrador (no.
56), Cuba (no. 57), and Hispaniola (no. 58). The copies in
America which have fallen under the Editor’s observation are
those in the Library of Congress, in the Astor and Carter-Brown
libraries, and in the collections of Mr. Barlow and Mr. Kalbfleisch in
New York, and of Prof. Jules Marcou in Cambridge. There was
one in the Murphy Collection, no. 2,067. It is worth from $15 to
$25. Cf. on Gastaldi’s maps, Zurla’s Marco Polo ii. 368; the Notizie
di Jacopo Gastaldi, Torino, 1881; Castellani’s Catalogo delle più
rare opere geografiche, Rome, 1876, and other references in
Winsor’s Bibliography of Ptolemy, sub anno 1548; and Vol. IV. p.
40 of the present History.
[1268] This edition is in small quarto and contains six American
maps:
no. 1, “Orbis Descriptio;”
no. 2, “Carta Marina;”
no. 3, a reproduction of the Zeni map;
no. 4, “Schonlandia” (Greenland region, etc.);
no. 5, South America;
no. 6, New Spain;
no. 7, “Tierra nueva,” or eastern coast of North America;
no. 8, Brazil;
no. 9, Cuba;
no. 10, Hispaniola.
These maps were repeated in the 1562, 1564, and 1574
editions of Ptolemy. The copies in America of these editions
known to the Editor are in the following libraries: Library of
Congress, 1561, 1562, 1574; Boston Public Library, 1561;
Harvard College Library, 1562; Carter-Brown Library, 1561, 1562,
1564, 1574; Philadelphia Library, 1574; Astor Library, 1574; S. L.
M. Barlow’s, 1562, 1564; James Carson Brevoort’s, 1562; J.
Hammond Trumbull’s, 1561; Trinity College (Hartford), 1574; C.
C. Baldwin’s (Cleveland) 1561; Murphy Catalogue, 1561, 1562,
1574,—the last two bought by President A. D. White of Cornell
University. These editions of Ptolemy’s Geographica are
described, and their American maps compared with the works of
other contemporary cartographers, in Winsor’s Bibliog. of
Ptolemy’s Geography (1884).
[1269] Jahresbericht des Vereins für Erdkunde in Dresden, 1870,
pages 62; plates vi., vii., ix.
[1270] These and other maps of the Palazzo are noted in Studi
biografici e bibliografici della società geografica italiana, Rome,
1882, ii. 169, 172.
[1271] Carter-Brown Catalogue, i. 209; Leclerc, Bibliotheca
Americana, no. 240; Murphy Catalogue, no. 1,047. The map is
very rare. Henry Stevens published a fac-simile made by Harris.
This and a fac-simile of the title of the book are annexed. Cf.
Orozco y Berra, Cartografia Mexicana, 37.
[1272] Sabin, Dictionary of books relating to America, vii. 27,504;
Stevens, Historical Collections, i. 2,413 (books sold in London,
July, 1881). The Harvard College copy lacks the map. Mr.
Brevoort’s copy has the map, and that gentleman thinks it
belongs to this edition as well as to the other.
[1273] The Catalogue of the British Museum puts under 1562 a
map by Furlani called Univerales Descrittione di tutta la Terra
cognosciuta da Paulo di Forlani. A “carta nautica” of the same
cartographer, now in the Bibliothèque Nationale at Paris, is
figured in Santarem’s Atlas. (Cf. Bulletin de la Société de
Géographie, 1839; and Studi biografici e bibliografici, ii. p. 142).
Thomassy in his Papes géographes, p. 118, mentions a Furlani
(engraved) map of 1565, published at Venice, and says it closely
resembles the Gastaldi type. Another, of 1570, is contained in
Lafreri’s Tavole moderne di geografia, Rome and Venice, 1554-
1572 (cf. Manno and Promis, Notizie di Gastaldi, 1881, p. 19;
Harrisse, Cabots, p. 237). Furlani, in 1574, as we shall see, had
dissevered America and Asia. As to Diego Hermano, cf. Willes’
History of Trauvayle (London, 1577) fol. 232, verso.
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  • 5. Barry Render Charles Harwood Professor of Management Science Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College Quantitative Analysis for Management Twelfth Edition Ralph M. Stair, Jr. Professor of Information and Management Sciences, Florida State University Michael E. Hanna Professor of Decision Sciences, University of Houston–Clear Lake Trevor S. Hale Associate Professor of Management Sciences, University of Houston–Downtown T. N. BADRI Associate Professor at Rajalakshmi School of Business A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 1 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:05
  • 6. To my wife and sons—BR To Lila and Leslie—RMS To Zoe and Gigi—MEH To Valerie and Lauren—TSH To S. R. Nagapaul, a Great Teacher of Mathematics—TNB Copyright © 2017 Pearson India Education Services Pvt. Ltd Published by Pearson India Education Services Pvt. Ltd, CIN: U72200TN2005PTC057128, formerly known as TutorVista Global Pvt. Ltd, licensee of Pearson Education in South Asia. No part of this eBook may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the publisher’s prior written consent. This eBook may or may not include all assets that were part of the print version. The publisher reserves the right to remove any material in this eBook at any time. ISBN 978-93-325-6858-7 eISBN 978-93-325-7869-2 Head Office: A-8 (A), 7th Floor, Knowledge Boulevard, Sector 62, Noida 201 309, Uttar Pradesh, India. Registered Office: 4th Floor, Software Block, Elnet Software City, TS-140, Block 2 & 9, Rajiv Gandhi Salai, Taramani, Chennai 600 113, Tamil Nadu, India. Fax: 080-30461003, Phone: 080-30461060 www.pearson.co.in, Email: companysecretary.india@pearson.com
  • 7. iii About the Authors Barry Render is Professor Emeritus, the Charles Harwood Distinguished Professor of Operations Management, Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College, Winter Park, Florida. He received his B.S. in Mathematics and Physics at Roosevelt University and his M.S. in Operations Research and his Ph.D. in Quantitative Analysis at the University of Cincinnati. He previously taught at George Washington University, the University of New Orleans, Boston University, and George Mason University, where he held the Mason Foundation Professorship in Decision Sciences and was Chair of the Decision Science Department. Dr. Render has also worked in the aerospace industry for General Electric, McDonnell Douglas, and NASA. Dr. Render has coauthored 10 textbooks published by Pearson, including Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets, Operations Management, Principles of Operations Management, Service Management, Introduction to Management Science, and Cases and Readings in Management Science. More than 100 articles of Dr. Render on a variety of management topics have appeared in Decision Sciences, Production and Operations Management, Interfaces, Information and Management, Journal of Management Information Systems, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, IIE Solutions, and Operations Management Review, among others. Dr. Render has been honored as an AACSB Fellow and was named twice as a Senior Fulbright Scholar. He was Vice President of the Decision Science Institute Southeast Region and served as software review editor for Decision Line for six years and as Editor of the New York Times Operations Management special issues for five years. From 1984 to 1993, Dr. Render was President of Management Service Associates of Virginia, Inc., whose technology clients included the FBI, the U.S. Navy, Fairfax County, Virginia, and C&P Telephone. He is currently Consulting Editor to Financial Times Press. Dr. Render has taught operations management courses at Rollins College for MBA and Executive MBA programs. He has received that school’s Welsh Award as leading professor and was selected by Roosevelt University as the 1996 recipient of the St. Claire DrakeAward for Outstanding Scholarship. In 2005, Dr. Render received the Rollins College MBA Student Award for Best Overall Course, and in 2009 was named Professor of the Year by full-time MBA students. Ralph Stair is Professor Emeritus at Florida State University. He earned a B.S. in chemical engi- neering from Purdue University and an M.B.A. from Tulane University. Under the guidance of Ken Ramsing and Alan Eliason, he received a Ph.D. in operations management from the University of Oregon. He has taught at the University of Oregon, the University of Washington, the University of New Orleans, and Florida State University. He has taught twice in Florida State University’s Study Abroad Program in London. Over the years, his teaching has been concentrated in the areas of information systems, operations research, and operations management. Dr. Stair is a member of several academic organizations, including the Decision Sciences Institute and INFORMS, and he regularly participates in national meetings. He has published numer- ous articles and books, including Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets, Introduction to Management Science, Cases and Readings in Management Science, Production and Operations Management: A Self-Correction Approach, Fundamentals of Information Systems, Principles of Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, Computers in Today’s World, Principles A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 3 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:05
  • 8. iv About the Authors of Data Processing, Learning to Live with Computers, Programming in BASIC, Essentials of BASIC Programming, Essentials of FORTRAN Programming, and Essentials of COBOL Programming. Dr. Stair divides his time between Florida and Colorado. He enjoys skiing, biking, kayaking, and other outdoor activities. Michael E. Hanna is Professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Houston–Clear Lake (UHCL). He holds a B.A. in Economics, an M.S. in Mathematics, and a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Texas Tech University. For more than 25 years, he has been teaching courses in statistics, man- agement science, forecasting, and other quantitative methods. His dedication to teaching has been recognized with the Beta Alpha Psi teaching award in 1995 and the Outstanding Educator Award in 2006 from the Southwest Decision Sciences Institute (SWDSI). Dr. Hanna has authored textbooks in management science and quantitative methods, has pub- lished numerous articles and professional papers, and has served on the Editorial Advisory Board of Computers and Operations Research. In 1996, the UHCL Chapter of Beta Gamma Sigma presented him with the Outstanding Scholar Award. Dr. Hanna is very active in the Decision Sciences Institute, having served on the Innovative Education Committee, the Regional Advisory Committee, and the Nominating Committee. He has served on the board of directors of the Decision Sciences Institute (DSI) for two terms and also as regionally elected vice president of DSI. For SWDSI, he has held several positions, including ­ president, and he received the SWDSI Distinguished Service Award in 1997. For overall service to the profession and to the university, he received the UHCL President’s Distinguished Service Award in 2001. Trevor S. Hale is Associate Professor of Management Science at the University of Houston– Downtown (UHD). He received a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Penn State University, an M.S. in Engineering Management from Northeastern University, and a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Texas A&M University. He was previously on the faculty of both Ohio University–Athens, and Colorado State University–Pueblo. Dr. Hale was honored three times as an Office of Naval Research Senior Faculty Fellow. He spent the summers of 2009, 2011, and 2013 performing energy security/cyber security research for the U.S. Navy at Naval Base Ventura County in Port Hueneme, California. Dr. Hale has published dozens of articles in the areas of operations research and quantitative analysis in journals such as the International Journal of Production Research, the European Journal of Operational Research, Annals of Operations Research, the Journal of the Operational Research Society, and the International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management among several others. He teaches quantitative analysis courses in the University of Houston–Downtown MBA program and Masters of Security Management for Executives program. He is a senior mem- ber of both the Decision Sciences Institute and INFORMS. T. N. Badri is Associate Professor at Rajalakshmi School of Business, Chennai. Prior to this, he was working as Associate Professor with Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai, from 2010 to 2014. His first teaching post was as Assistant Professor at T. A. Pai Management Institute, Manipal. He has collaborated with other faculty there, on offering executive education programmes for Bangalore based companies such as HP and Oracle. He completed his bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi. Badri’s interest towards the applied aspect grew over the subsequent years; hence, he did his MS is in Computational Mathematics and Operations Research from Clemson University, South Carolina, USA. He was awarded a PhD in Industrial Engineering and Operational Research on the topic of heuristics for network design. The latest feather in his cap is an executive MBA from Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai, that was jointly offered with Bauer College, University of Houston, USA. A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 4 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
  • 9. v Chapter 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1 Chapter 2 Probability Concepts and Applications 23 Chapter 3 Decision Analysis 67 Chapter 4 Regression Models 115 Chapter 5 Forecasting 153 Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models 197 Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods 251 Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications 305 Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models 345 Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming 391 Chapter 11 Project Management 431 Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models 471 Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling 505 Chapter 14 Markov Analysis 545 Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control 573 Online Modules 1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1 2 Dynamic Programming M2-1 3 Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution M3-1 4 Game Theory M4-1 5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices M5-1 6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1 7 Linear Programming: The Simplex Method M7-1 8 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms M8-1 Brief Contents A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 5 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
  • 10. vi Contents Preface xiii Chapter 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1 1.1 Introduction 2 1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis? 2 1.3 Business Analytics 3 1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 4 Defining the Problem 4 Developing a Model 4 Acquiring Input Data 5 Developing a Solution 5 Testing the Solution 6 Analyzing the Results and Sensitivity Analysis 6 Implementing the Results 6 The Quantitative Analysis Approach and Modeling in the Real World 8 1.5 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model 8 The Advantages of Mathematical Modeling 9 Mathematical Models Categorized by Risk 9 1.6 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models in the Quantitative Analysis Approach 10 1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis Approach 13 Defining the Problem 13 Developing a Model 14 Acquiring Input Data 15 Developing a Solution 15 Testing the Solution 16 Analyzing the Results 16 1.8 Implementation—Not Just the Final Step 17 Lack of Commitment and Resistance to Change 17 Lack of Commitment by Quantitative Analysts 17 Summary 17 Glossary 18 Key Equations 18 Self-Test 18 Discussion Questions and Problems 19 Case Study: Food and Beverages at Southwestern University Football Games 21 Bibliography 21 Chapter 2 Probability Concepts and Applications 23 2.1 Introduction 24 2.2 Fundamental Concepts 24 Two Basic Rules of Probability 24 Types of Probability 25 Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive Events 26 Unions and Intersections of Events 27 Probability Rules for Unions, Intersections, and Conditional Probabilities 28 2.3 Revising Probabilities with Bayes’Theorem 29 General Form of Bayes’ Theorem 31 2.4 Further Probability Revisions 31 2.5 Random Variables 32 2.6 Probability Distributions 34 Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable 34 Expected Value of a Discrete Probability Distribution 34 Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution 35 Probability Distribution of a Continuous Random Variable 36 2.7 The Binomial Distribution 37 Solving Problems with the Binomial Formula 38 Solving Problems with Binomial Tables 39 2.8 The Normal Distribution 40 Area Under the Normal Curve 42 Using the Standard Normal Table 42 Haynes Construction Company Example 43 The Empirical Rule 46 2.9 The F Distribution 46 2.10 The Exponential Distribution 48 Arnold’s Muffler Example 49 2.11 The Poisson Distribution 50 Summary 52 Glossary 52 Key Equations 53 Solved Problems 54 Self-Test 56 Discussion Questions and Problems 57 Case Study: WTVX 63 Case Study: Indian Metro League 63 Bibliography 64 Appendix 2.1: Derivation of Bayes’Theorem 65 A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 6 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
  • 11. Contents vii Chapter 3 Decision Analysis 67 3.1 Introduction 68 3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Making 68 3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments 69 3.4 Decision Making Under Uncertainty 70 Optimistic 70 Pessimistic 71 Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz Criterion) 71 Equally Likely (Laplace) 72 Minimax Regret 72 3.5 Decision Making Under Risk 73 Expected Monetary Value 73 Expected Value of Perfect Information 74 Expected Opportunity Loss 76 Sensitivity Analysis 76 3.6 A Minimization Example 77 3.7 Using Software for Payoff Table Problems 79 QM for Windows 79 Excel QM 80 3.8 Decision Trees 81 Efficiency of Sample Information 86 Sensitivity Analysis 86 3.9 How Probability Values Are Estimated by Bayesian Analysis 87 Calculating Revised Probabilities 87 Potential Problem in Using Survey Results 89 3.10 Utility Theory 90 Measuring Utility and Constructing a Utility Curve 91 Utility as a Decision-Making Criterion 94 Summary 96 Glossary 96 Key Equations 97 Solved Problems 97 Self-Test 102 Discussion Questions and Problems 103 Case Study: Starting Right Corporation 111 Case Study: Blake Electronics 112 Bibliography 114 Chapter 4 Regression Models 115 4.1 Introduction 116 4.2 Scatter Diagrams 116 4.3 Simple Linear Regression 117 4.4 Measuring the Fit of the Regression Model 119 Coefficient of Determination 120 Correlation Coefficient 120 4.5 Assumptions of the Regression Model 122 Estimating the Variance 123 4.6 Testing the Model for Significance 123 Triple A Construction Example 125 The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table 125 Triple A Construction ANOVA Example 126 4.7 Using Computer Software for Regression 126 Excel 2013 126 Excel QM 127 QM for Windows 129 4.8 Multiple Regression Analysis 130 Evaluating the Multiple Regression Model 131 Jenny Wilson Realty Example 132 4.9 Binary or Dummy Variables 133 4.10 Model Building 134 Stepwise Regression 135 Multicollinearity 135 4.11 Nonlinear Regression 135 4.12 Cautions and Pitfalls in Regression Analysis 138 Summary 139 Glossary 139 Key Equations 140 Solved Problems 141 Self-Test 143 Discussion Questions and Problems 143 Case Study: North–South Airline 148 Case Study: The Southern Motorcycle Company 149 Bibliography 150 Appendix 4.1: Formulas for Regression Calculations 150 Chapter 5 Forecasting 153 5.1 Introduction 154 5.2 Types of Forecasting Models 154 Qualitative Models 154 Causal Models 155 Time-Series Models 155 5.3 Components of a Time-Series 155 5.4 Measures of Forecast Accuracy 157 5.5 Forecasting Models—Random Variations Only 160 Moving Averages 160 Weighted Moving Averages 160 Exponential Smoothing 162 Using Software for Forecasting Time Series 164 5.6 Forecasting Models—Trend and Random Variations 167 Exponential Smoothing with Trend 167 Trend Projections 169 5.7 Adjusting for Seasonal Variations 171 Seasonal Indices 172 Calculating Seasonal Indices with No Trend 172 Calculating Seasonal Indices with Trend 173 5.8 Forecasting Models—Trend, Seasonal, and Random Variations 174 The Decomposition Method 174 Software for Decomposition 177 Using Regression with Trend and Seasonal Components 178 5.9 Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts 179 Adaptive Smoothing 181 Summary 181 Glossary 182 Key Equations 182 Solved Problems 183 Self-Test 184 Discussion Questions and Problems 185 Case Study: Forecasting Attendance at SWU Football Games 188 Case Study: Forecasting Monthly Sales 189 Case Study: Forecasting Commercial Vehicle Sales at ABCO 190 Bibliography 196 A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 7 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
  • 12. viii Contents Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models 197 6.1 Introduction 198 6.2 Importance of Inventory Control 199 Decoupling Function 199 Storing Resources 199 Irregular Supply and Demand 199 Quantity Discounts 199 Avoiding Stockouts and Shortages 199 6.3 Inventory Decisions 200 6.4 Economic Order Quantity: Determining How Much to Order 201 Inventory Costs in the EOQ Situation 202 Finding the EOQ 204 Sumco Pump Company Example 204 Purchase Cost of Inventory Items 205 Sensitivity Analysis with the EOQ Model 206 6.5 Reorder Point: Determining When to Order 207 6.6 EOQ Without the Instantaneous Receipt Assumption 208 Annual Carrying Cost for Production Run Model 209 Annual Setup Cost or Annual Ordering Cost 209 Determining the Optimal Production Quantity 210 Brown Manufacturing Example 210 6.7 Quantity Discount Models 212 Brass Department Store Example 214 6.8 Use of Safety Stock 216 6.9 Single-Period Inventory Models 221 Marginal Analysis with Discrete Distributions 222 Café du Donut Example 223 Marginal Analysis with the Normal Distribution 224 Newspaper Example 224 6.10 ABC Analysis 226 6.11 Dependent Demand: The Case for Material Requirements Planning 226 Material Structure Tree 227 Gross and Net Material Requirements Plan 228 Two or More End Products 229 6.12 Just-In-Time Inventory Control 231 6.13 Enterprise Resource Planning 232 Summary 233 Glossary 233 Key Equations 234 Solved Problems 235 Self-Test 237 Discussion Questions and Problems 238 Case Study: Martin- Pullin Bicycle Corporation 245 Case Study: Multiperiod Inventory Planning at ABYCO 246 Bibliography 247 Appendix 6.1: Inventory Control with QM for Windows 248 Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods 251 7.1 Introduction 252 7.2 Requirements of a Linear Programming Problem 252 7.3 Formulating LP Problems 253 Flair Furniture Company 253 7.4 Graphical Solution to an LP Problem 255 Graphical Representation of Constraints 255 Isoprofit Line Solution Method 259 Corner Point Solution Method 262 Slack and Surplus 264 7.5 Solving Flair Furniture’s LP Problem Using QM for Windows, Excel 2013, and Excel QM 265 Using QM for Windows 265 Using Excel’s Solver Command to Solve LP Problems 266 Using Excel QM 269 7.6 Solving Minimization Problems 271 Holiday Meal Turkey Ranch 271 7.7 Four Special Cases in LP 275 No Feasible Solution 275 Unboundedness 275 Redundancy 276 Alternate Optimal Solutions 277 7.8 Sensitivity Analysis 278 High Note Sound Company 279 Changes in the Objective Function Coefficient 280 QM for Windows and Changes in Objective Function Coefficients 280 Excel Solver and Changes in Objective Function Coefficients 281 Changes in the Technological Coefficients 282 Changes in the Resources or Right-Hand-Side Values 283 QM for Windows and Changes in Right-Hand- Side Values 284 Excel Solver and Changes in Right-Hand-Side Values 284 Summary 286 Glossary 286 Solved Problems 287 Self-Test 291 Discussion Questions and Problems 292 Case Study: Mexicana Wire Works 301 Case Study: Planning the Product Mix at Panchtantra Corporation 302 Bibliography 303 Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications 305 8.1 Introduction 306 8.2 Marketing Applications 306 Media Selection 306 Marketing Research 307 8.3 Manufacturing Applications 310 Production Mix 310 Production Scheduling 311 A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 8 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
  • 13. Contents ix 8.4 Employee Scheduling Applications 315 Labor Planning 315 8.5 Financial Applications 317 Portfolio Selection 317 Truck Loading Problem 320 8.6 Ingredient Blending Applications 322 Diet Problems 322 Ingredient Mix and Blending Problems 323 8.7 Other Linear Programming Applications 325 Summary 327 Self-Test 327 Problems 328 Case Study: Cable Moore 335 Case Study: Kamdhenu Diary 336 Bibliography 343 Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models 345 9.1 Introduction 346 9.2 The Transportation Problem 347 Linear Program for the Transportation Example 347 Solving Transportation Problems Using Computer Software 347 A General LP Model for Transportation Problems 348 Facility Location Analysis 349 9.3 The Assignment Problem 352 Linear Program for Assignment Example 352 9.4 The Transshipment Problem 354 Linear Program for Transshipment Example 354 9.5 Maximal-Flow Problem 357 Example 357 9.6 Shortest-Route Problem 359 9.7 All-Node-Pairs Shortest Path 360 9.8 Minimal-Spanning Tree Problem 364 Summary 369 Glossary 369 Solved Problems 370 Self-Test 372 Discussion Questions and Problems 373 Case Study: Andrew–Carter, Inc. 386 Case Study: Northeastern Airlines 387 Case Study: Southwestern University Traffic Problems 388 Bibliography 389 Appendix 9.1: Using QM for Windows 389 Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming 391 10.1 Introduction 392 10.2 Integer Programming 392 Harrison Electric Company Example of Integer Programming 392 Using Software to Solve the Harrison Integer Programming Problem 394 Mixed-Integer Programming Problem Example 396 10.3 Modeling with 0–1 (Binary) Variables 398 Capital Budgeting Example 398 Limiting the Number of Alternatives Selected 400 Dependent Selections 400 Fixed-Charge Problem Example 400 Financial Investment Example 402 10.4 Goal Programming 402 Example of Goal Programming: Harrison Electric Company Revisited 404 Extension to Equally Important Multiple Goals 405 Ranking Goals with Priority Levels 405 Goal Programming with Weighted Goals 406 10.5 Nonlinear Programming 407 Nonlinear Objective Function and Linear Constraints 408 Both Nonlinear Objective Function and Nonlinear Constraints 408 Linear Objective Function with Nonlinear Constraints 410 Summary 410 Glossary 411 Solved Problems 411 Self-Test 420 Discussion Questions and Problems 420 Case Study: Schank Marketing Research 426 Case Study: Oakton River Bridge 427 Case Study: Optimizing Crude Oil Logistics at Petrolco 428 Bibliography 429 Chapter 11 Project Management 431 11.1 Introduction 432 11.2 PERT/CPM 433 General Foundry Example of PERT/CPM 433 Drawing the PERT/CPM Network 435 Activity Times 435 How to Find the Critical Path 436 Probability of Project Completion 441 What PERT Was Able to Provide 442 Using Excel QM for the General Foundry Example 442 Sensitivity Analysis and Project Management 443 11.3 PERT/Cost 445 Planning and Scheduling Project Costs: Budgeting Process 445 Monitoring and Controlling Project Costs 448 11.4 Project Crashing 450 General Foundary Example 451 Project Crashing with Linear Programming 452 11.5 Other Topics in Project Management 455 Subprojects 455 Milestones 455 Resource Leveling 455 Software 455 Summary 455 Glossary 456 Key Equations 456 Solved Problems 457 A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 9 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
  • 14. x Contents Self-Test 459 Discussion Questions and Problems 460 Case Study: Southwestern University Stadium Construction 466 Case Study: Family Planning Research Center of Nigeria 467 Bibliography 468 Appendix 11.1: Project Management with QM for Windows 469 Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models 471 12.1 Introduction 472 12.2 Waiting Line Costs 472 Three Rivers Shipping Company Example 473 12.3 Characteristics of a Queuing System 474 Arrival Characteristics 474 Waiting Line Characteristics 474 Service Facility Characteristics 475 Identifying Models Using Kendall Notation 475 12.4 Single-Channel Queuing Model with Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (M/M/1) 478 Assumptions of the Model 478 Queuing Equations 478 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case 479 Enhancing the Queuing Environment 483 12.5 Multichannel Queuing Model with Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (M/M/m) 483 Equations for the Multichannel Queuing Model 484 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited 484 12.6 Constant Service Time Model (M/D/1) 486 Equations for the Constant Service Time Model 486 Garcia-Golding Recycling, Inc. 487 12.7 Finite Population Model (M/M/1 with Finite Source) 488 Equations for the Finite Population Model 488 Department of Commerce Example 489 12.8 Some General Operating Characteristic Relationships 490 12.9 More Complex Queuing Models and the Use of Simulation 490 Summary 491 Glossary 491 Key Equations 492 Solved Problems 493 Self-Test 496 Discussion Questions and Problems 497 Case Study: New England Foundry 501 Case Study: Winter Park Hotel 503 Bibliography 503 Appendix 12.1: Using QM for Windows 504 Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling 505 13.1 Introduction 506 13.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation 507 13.3 Monte Carlo Simulation 508 Harry’s Auto Tire Example 508 Using QM for Windows for Simulation 513 Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 514 13.4 Simulation and Inventory Analysis 516 Simkin’s Hardware Store 516 Analyzing Simkin’s Inventory Costs 519 13.5 Simulation of a Queuing Problem 520 Port of New Orleans 520 Using Excel to Simulate the Port of New Orleans Queuing Problem 522 13.6 Simulation Model for a Maintenance Policy 523 Three Hills Power Company 523 Cost Analysis of the Simulation 525 13.7 Other Simulation Issues 528 Two Other Types of Simulation Models 528 Verification and Validation 529 Role of Computers in Simulation 530 Summary 530 Glossary 530 Solved Problems 531 Self-Test 534 Discussion Questions and Problems 535 Case Study: Alabama Airlines 540 Case Study: Statewide Development Corporation 541 Case Study: FB Badpoore Aerospace 542 Case Study: Radiology Department at the Kamala Medical College and Hospital 543 Bibliography 544 Chapter 14 Markov Analysis 545 14.1 Introduction 546 14.2 States and State Probabilities 546 The Vector of State Probabilities for Three Grocery Stores Example 547 14.3 Matrix of Transition Probabilities 548 Transition Probabilities for the Three Grocery Stores 549 14.4 Predicting Future Market Shares 549 14.5 Markov Analysis of Machine Operations 550 14.6 Equilibrium Conditions 551 14.7 Absorbing States and the Fundamental Matrix: Accounts Receivable Application 554 Summary 558 Glossary 559 Key Equations 559 Solved Problems 559 Self-Test 563 Discussion Questions and Problems 563 Case Study: Rentall Trucks 568 Bibliography 569 Appendix 14.1: Markov Analysis with QM for Windows 569 Appendix 14.2: Markov Analysis With Excel 571 Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control 573 15.1 Introduction 574 15.2 Defining Quality and TQM 574 15.3 Statistical Process Control 575 Variability in the Process 575 A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 10 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:06
  • 15. Contents xi 15.4 Control Charts for Variables 577 The Central Limit Theorem 577 Setting x-Chart Limits 578 Setting Range Chart Limits 581 15.5 Control Charts for Attributes 582 p-Charts 582 c-Charts 584 Summary 586 Glossary 586 Key Equations 586 Solved Problems 587 Self-Test 588 Discussion Questions and Problems 588 Bibliography 591 Appendix 15.1: Using QM for Windows for SPC 591 appendices 593 Appendix A Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve 594 Appendix B Binomial Probabilities 596 Appendix c Values of e-λ for Use in the Poisson Distribution 601 Appendix D F Distribution Values 602 Appendix E Using POM-QM for Windows 604 Appendix F Using Excel QM and Excel Add-Ins 607 Appendix G Solutions to Selected Problems 608 Appendix H Solutions to Self-Tests 612 index 615 ONLINE Modules Module 1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1 M1.1 Introduction M1-2 M1.2 Multifactor Evaluation Process M1-2 M1.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-4 Judy Grim’s Computer Decision M1-4 Using Pairwise Comparisons M1-5 Evaluations for Hardware M1-7 Determining the Consistency Ratio M1-7 Evaluations for the Other Factors M1-9 Determining Factor Weights M1-10 Overall Ranking M1-10 Using the Computer to Solve Analytic Hierarchy Process Problems M1-10 M1.4 Comparison of Multifactor Evaluation and Analytic Hierarchy Processes M1-11 Summary M1-12 Glossary M1-12 Key Equations M1-12 Solved Problems M1-12 Self-Test M1-14 Discussion Questions and Problems M1-14 Bibliography M1-16 Appendix M1.1: Using Excel for the Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-16 Module 2 Dynamic Programming M2-1 M2.1 Introduction M2-2 M2.2 Shortest-Route Problem Solved using Dynamic Programming M2-2 M2.3 Dynamic Programming Terminology M2-6 M2.4 Dynamic Programming Notation M2-8 M2.5 Knapsack Problem M2-9 Types of Knapsack Problems M2-9 Roller’s Air Transport Service Problem M2-9 Summary M2-16 Glossary M2-16 Key Equations M2-16 Solved Problems M2-16 Self-Test M2-18 Discussion Questions and Problems M2-19 Case Study: United Trucking M2-22 Internet Case Study M2-22 Bibliography M2-22 Module 3 Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution M3-1 M3.1 Introduction M3-2 M3.2 Break-Even Analysis and the Normal Distribution M3-2 Barclay Brothers Company’s New Product Decision M3-2 Probability Distribution of Demand M3-3 Using Expected Monetary Value to Make a Decision M3-5 M3.3 Expected Value of Perfect Information and the Normal Distribution M3-6 Opportunity Loss Function M3-6 Expected Opportunity Loss M3-6 Summary M3-8 Glossary M3-8 Key Equations M3-8 Solved Problems M3-9 Self-Test M3-9 Discussion Questions and Problems M3-10 Bibliography M3-11 Appendix M3.1: Derivation of the Break-Even Point M3-11 Appendix M3.2: Unit Normal Loss Integral M3-12 Module 4 Game Theory M4-1 M4.1 Introduction M4-2 M4.2 Language of Games M4-2 M4.3 The Minimax Criterion M4-3 M4.4 Pure Strategy Games M4-4 M4.5 Mixed Strategy Games M4-5 M4.6 Dominance M4-6 Summary M4-7 Glossary M4-7 Solved Problems M4-7 Self-Test M4-8 Discussion Questions and Problems M4-9 Bibliography M4-10 Module 5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices M5-1 M5.1 Introduction M5-2 M5.2 Matrices and Matrix Operations M5-2 Matrix Addition and Subtraction M5-2 Matrix Multiplication M5-3 Matrix Notation for Systems of Equations M5-6 Matrix Transpose M5-6 M5.3 Determinants, Cofactors, and Adjoints M5-6 Determinants M5-6 Matrix of Cofactors and Adjoint M5-8 A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 11 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 16. xii Contents M5.4 Finding the Inverse of a Matrix M5-10 Summary M5-11 Glossary M5-11 Key Equations M5-11 Self-Test M5-12 Discussion Questions and Problems M5-12 Bibliography M5-13 Appendix M5.1: Using Excel for Matrix Calculations M5-13 Module 6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1 M6.1 Introduction M6-2 M6.2 Slope of a Straight Line M6-2 M6.3 Slope of a Nonlinear Function M6-3 M6.4 Some Common Derivatives M6-5 Second Derivatives M6-6 M6.5 Maximum and Minimum M6-6 M6.6 Applications M6-8 Economic Order Quantity M6-8 Total Revenue M6-9 Summary M6-10 Glossary M6-10 Key Equations M6-10 Solved Problem M6-11 Self-Test M6-11 Discussion Questions and Problems M6-12 Bibliography M6-12 Module 7 Linear Programming: The Simplex Method M7-1 M7.1 Introduction M7-2 M7.2 How to Set Up the Initial Simplex Solution M7-2 Converting the Constraints to Equations M7-3 Finding an Initial Solution Algebraically M7-3 The First Simplex Tableau M7-4 M7.3 Simplex Solution Procedures M7-8 M7.4 The Second Simplex Tableau M7-9 Interpreting the Second Tableau M7-12 M7.5 Developing the Third Tableau M7-13 M7.6 Review of Procedures for Solving LP Maximization Problems M7-16 M7.7 Surplus and Artificial Variables M7-16 Surplus Variables M7-17 Artificial Variables M7-17 Surplus and Artificial Variables in the Objective Function M7-18 M7.8 Solving Minimization Problems M7-18 The Muddy River Chemical Company Example M7-18 Graphical Analysis M7-19 Converting the Constraints and Objective Function M7-20 Rules of the Simplex Method for Minimization Problems M7-21 First Simplex Tableau for the Muddy River Chemical Corporation Problem M7-21 Developing a Second Tableau M7-23 Developing a Third Tableau M7-24 Fourth Tableau for the Muddy River Chemical Corporation Problem M7-26 M7.9 Review of Procedures for Solving LP Minimization Problems M7-27 M7.10 Special Cases M7-28 Infeasibility M7-28 Unbounded Solutions M7-28 Degeneracy M7-29 More Than One Optimal Solution M7-30 M7.11 Sensitivity Analysis with the Simplex Tableau M7-30 High Note Sound Company Revisited M7-30 Changes in the Objective Function Coefficients M7-31 Changes in Resources or RHS Values M7-33 M7.12 The Dual M7-35 Dual Formulation Procedures M7-37 Solving the Dual of the High Note Sound Company Problem M7-37 M7.13 Karmarkar’s Algorithm M7-39 Summary M7-39 Glossary M7-39 Key Equation M7-40 Solved Problems M7-41 Self-Test M7-44 Discussion Questions and Problems M7-45 Bibliography M7-53 Module 8 Transportation, Assignment, and ­ Network Algorithms M8-1 M8.1 Introduction M8-2 M8.2 The Transportation Algorithm M8-2 Developing an Initial Solution: Northwest Corner Rule M8-2 Stepping-Stone Method: Finding a Least-Cost Solution M8-4 M8.3 Special Situations with the Transportation Algorithm M8-9 Unbalanced Transportation Problems M8-9 Degeneracy in Transportation Problems M8-10 More Than One Optimal Solution M8-13 Maximization Transportation Problems M8-13 Unacceptable or Prohibited Routes M8-13 Other Transportation Methods M8-13 M8.4 The Assignment Algorithm M8-13 The Hungarian Method (Flood’s Technique) M8-14 Making the Final Assignment M8-18 M8.5 Special Situations with the Assignment Algorithm M8-18 Unbalanced Assignment Problems M8-18 Maximization Assignment Problems M8-19 M8.6 Maximal-Flow Problem M8-20 Maximal-Flow Technique M8-20 M8.7 Shortest-Route Problem M8-23 Shortest-Route Technique M8-23 Summary M8-25 Glossary M8-25 Solved Problems M8-26 Self-Test M8-32 Discussion Questions and Problems M8-33 Cases M8-42 Bibliography M8-42 A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 12 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 17. xiii Overview Welcome to the twelfth edition of Quantitative Analysis for Management. Our goal is to provide undergraduate and graduate students with a genuine foundation in business analytics, quantitative methods, and management science. In doing so, we owe thanks to the hundreds of users and scores of reviewers who have provided invaluable counsel and pedagogical insight for more than 30 years. To help students connect how the techniques presented in this book apply in the real world, computer-based applications and examples are a major focus of this edition. Mathematical ­ models, with all the necessary assumptions, are presented in a clear and jargon-free language. The solution procedures are then applied to example problems alongside step-by-step ­ “how-to” instructions. We have found this method of presentation to be very effective and students are very appreciative of this approach. In places where the mathematical computations are intricate, the details are presented in such a manner that the instructor can omit these sections without interrupting the flow of material. The use of computer software enables the instructor to focus on the managerial problem and spend less time on the details of the algorithms. Computer output is provided for many examples through- out the book. The only mathematical prerequisite for this textbook is algebra. One chapter on probability and another on regression analysis provide introductory coverage on these topics. We employ standard notation, terminology, and equations throughout the book. Careful explanation is provided for the mathematical notation and equations that are used. New to This Edition ● An introduction to business analytics is provided. ● Excel 2013 is incorporated throughout the chapters. ● The transportation, assignment, and network models have been combined into one chapter focused on modeling with linear programming. ● Specialized algorithms for the transportation, assignment, and network methods have been combined into Online Module 8. ● New examples, over 25 problems, 8 QA in Action applications, 4 Modeling in the Real World features, and new Case Studies have been added throughout the textbook. Other problems and Case Studies have been updated. Preface A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 13 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 18. xiv Preface Special Features Many features have been popular in previous editions of this textbook, and they have been updated and expanded in this edition. They include the following: ● Modeling in the Real World boxes demonstrate the application of the quantitative analysis approach to every technique discussed in the book. Four new ones have been added. ● Procedure boxes summarize the more complex quantitative techniques, presenting them as a series of easily understandable steps. ● Margin notes highlight the important topics in the text. ● History boxes provide interesting asides related to the development of techniques and the ­people who are related to its origin. ● QA in Action boxes illustrate how real organizations have used quantitative analysis to solve problems. Several new QA in Action boxes have been added. ● Solved Problems, included at the end of each chapter, serve as models for students in solving their own homework problems. ● Discussion Questions are presented at the end of each chapter to test the student’s understand- ing of the concepts covered and definitions provided in the chapter. ● Problems included in every chapter are applications oriented and test the student’s ability to solve exam-type problems. They are graded by level of difficulty: introductory (one bullet), moderate (two bullets), and challenging (three bullets). More than 40 new problems have been added. ● Internet Homework Problems provide additional problems for students to work. They are available at www.pearsoned.co.in/render. ● Self-Tests allow students to test their knowledge of important terms and concepts in prepara- tion for quizzes and examinations. ● Case Studies, at the end of each chapter, provide additional challenging managerial applications. ● Glossaries, at the end of each chapter, define important terms. ● Key Equations, provided at the end of each chapter, list the equations presented in that chapter. ● End-of-chapter bibliographies provide a current selection of more advanced books and articles. ● The software POM-QM for Windows uses the full capabilities of Windows to solve quantita- tive analysis problems. ● Excel QM and Excel 2013 are used to solve problems throughout the book. ● Data files with Excel spreadsheets and POM-QM for Windows files containing all the ­ examples in the textbook are available for students to download from www.pearsoned.co.in/ render. Instructors can download these plus additional files containing computer solutions to the relevant end-of-chapter problems from the Instructor Resource Center Web site. ● Online modules provide additional coverage of topics in quantitative analysis. ● www.pearsoned.co.in/render, provides the online modules, additional problems, cases, and other material for almost every chapter. Significant Changes to the Twelfth Edition In the twelfth edition, we have introduced Excel 2013 in all of the chapters. Screenshots are ­ integrated in the appropriate sections so that students can easily learn how to use Excel for the calculations. The Excel QM add-in is used with Excel 2013 allowing students with limited Excel experience to easily perform the necessary calculations. This also allows students to improve their Excel skills as they see the formulas automatically written in Excel QM. A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 14 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 19. Preface xv From www.pearsoned.co.in/render, students can access files for all of the examples used in the textbook in Excel 2013, QM for Windows, and Excel QM. Other files with all of the end-of-chapter problems involving these software tools are available to the instructors. Business analytics, one of the hottest topics in the business world, makes extensive use of the models in this book. A discussion of the business analytics categories is provided, and the relevant management science techniques are placed into the appropriate category. The transportation, transshipment, assignment, and network models have been combined into one chapter focused on modeling with linear programming. The specialized algorithms for these models have been combined into a new online module. Examples and problems have been updated, and many new ones have been added. New screen- shots are provided for almost all of the examples in the book. A brief summary of the other changes in each chapter are presented here. Chapter 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis. A section on business analytics has been added, the self-test has been modified, and two new problems were added. Chapter 2 Probability Concepts and Applications. The presentation of the fundamental concepts of probability has been significantly modified and reorganized. Two new problems have been added. Chapter 3 Decision Analysis. A more thorough discussion of minimization problems with payoff tables has been provided in a new section. The presentation of software usage with payoff tables was expanded. Two new problems were added. Chapter 4 Regression Models. The use of different software packages for regression analysis has been moved to the body of the textbook instead of the appendix. Five new problems and one new QA in Action item have been added. Chapter 5 Forecasting. The presentation of time-series forecasting models was significantly revised to bring the focus on identifying the appropriate technique to use based on which time- series components are present in the data. Five new problems were added, and the cases have been updated. Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models. The four steps of the Kanban production process have been updated and clarified. Two new QA in Action boxes, four new problems, and one new Modeling in the Real World have been added. Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods. More discussion of Solver is presented. A new Modeling in the Real World item was added, and the solved problems have been revised. Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications. The transportation model was moved to Chapter 9, and a new section describing other models has been added. The self-test questions were modified; one new problem, one new QA in Action summary, and a new case study have been added. Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models. This new chapter presents all of the distribution, assignment, and network models that were previously in two separate chapters. The modeling approach is emphasized, while the special-purpose algorithms were moved to a new online module. A new case study, Northeastern Airlines, has also been added. Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming. The use of Excel 2013 and the new screen shots were the only changes to this chapter. Chapter 11 Project Management. Two new end-of-chapter problems and three new QA in Action boxes have been added. Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models. Two new end-of-chapter problems were added. Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling. One new Modeling in the Real World vignette, one new QA in Action box, and a new case study have been added. A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 15 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 20. xvi Preface Chapter 14 Markov Analysis. One new QA in Action box and two new end-of-chapter problems have been added. Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control. One new Modeling in the Real World vignette, one new QA in Action box, and two new end-of-chapter problems have been added. Modules 1–8 The only significant change to the modules is the addition of Module 8: Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms. This includes the special-purpose algorithms for the transportation, assignment, and network models. Online Modules To streamline the book, eight topics are contained in modules available at www.pearsoned.co.in/ render for the book. 1. Analytic Hierarchy Process 2. Dynamic Programming 3. Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution 4. Game Theory 5. Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices 6. Calculus-Based Optimization 7. Linear Programming: The Simplex Method 8. Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms Software Excel 2013 Instructions and screen captures are provided for, using Excel 2013, throughout the book. Instructions for activating the Solver and Analysis ToolPak add-ins in Excel 2013 are pro- vided in an appendix. The use of Excel is more prevalent in this edition of the book than in previous editions. Excel QM Using the Excel QM add-in that is available at www.pearsoned.co.in/render, makes the use of Excel even easier. Students with limited Excel experience can use this and learn from the formulas that are automatically provided by Excel QM. This is used in many of the chapters. POM-QM for Windows This software, developed by Professor Howard Weiss, is available to students at www.pearsoned.co.in/render. This is very user-friendly and has proven to be a very popular software tool for users of this textbook. Modules are available for every major problem type presented in the textbook. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES The resources located at www.pearsoned.co.in/render, contains a variety of materials to help stu- dents master the material in this course. These include the following: Modules There are eight modules containing additional material that the instructor may choose to include in the course. Students can download these from www.pearsoned.co.in/render. Files for Examples in Excel, Excel QM, and POM-QM for Windows Students can down- load the files that were used for examples throughout the book. This helps them become familiar with the software, and it helps them understand the input and formulas necessary for working the examples. A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 16 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 21. Preface xvii Internet Homework Problems In addition to the end-of-chapter problems in the textbook, there are additional problems that instructors may assign. These are available for download at www.pearsoned.co.in/render. Internet Case Studies Additional case studies are available for most chapters. POM-QM for Windows Developed by Howard Weiss, this very user-friendly software can be used to solve most of the homework problems in the text. Excel QM This Excel add-in will automatically create worksheets for solving problems. This is very helpful for instructors who choose to use Excel in their classes but who may have students with limited Excel experience. Students can learn by examining the formulas that have been cre- ated, and by seeing the inputs that are automatically generated for using the Solver add-in for linear programming. Instructor Resources Instructor resources are available at www.pearsoned.co.in/render Acknowledgments We gratefully thank the users of previous editions and the reviewers who provided valuable sugges- tions and ideas for this edition.Your feedback is valuable in our efforts for continuous improvement. The continued success of Quantitative Analysis for Management is a direct result of instructor and student feedback, which is truly appreciated. The authors are indebted to many people who have made important contributions to this pro- ject. Special thanks go to Professors Faizul Huq, F. Bruce Simmons III, Khala Chand Seal, Victor E. Sower, Michael Ballot, Curtis P. McLaughlin, Zbigniew H. Przanyski, Atanu Sanyal, Chandramouli Swaminathan, Subhayu Roy, R. C. Natarajan, and S. Sivakumar for their contributions to the excel- lent cases included in this edition. We thank Howard Weiss for providing Excel QM and POM-QM for Windows, two of the most outstanding packages in the field of quantitative methods. We would also like to thank the reviewers who have helped to make this textbook the most widely used one in the field of quantitative analysis: Stephen Achtenhagen, San Jose University M. Jill Austin, Middle Tennessee State University Raju Balakrishnan, Clemson University Hooshang Beheshti, Radford University Jason Bergner, University of Central Missouri Bruce K. Blaylock, Radford University Rodney L. Carlson, Tennessee Technological University Edward Chu, California State University, Dominguez Hills John Cozzolino, Pace University–Pleasantville Ozgun C. Demirag, Penn State–Erie Shad Dowlatshahi, University of Wisconsin, Platteville Ike Ehie, Southeast Missouri State University Richard Ehrhardt, University of North Carolina–Greensboro Sean Eom, Southeast Missouri State University Ephrem Eyob, Virginia State University Mira Ezvan, Lindenwood University Wade Ferguson, Western Kentucky University Robert Fiore, Springfield College Frank G. Forst, Loyola University of Chicago Ed Gillenwater, University of Mississippi Stephen H. Goodman, University of Central Florida Irwin Greenberg, George Mason University Nicholas G. Hall, Ohio State University Robert R. Hill, University of Houston–Clear Lake Gordon Jacox, Weber State University Bharat Jain, Towson University Vassilios Karavas, University of Massachusetts Amherst Darlene R. Lanier, Louisiana State University Kenneth D. Lawrence, New Jersey Institute of Technology Jooh Lee, Rowan College Richard D. Legault, University of Massachusetts–Dartmouth Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College Daniel McNamara, University of St. Thomas Peter Miller, University of Windsor Ralph Miller, California State Polytechnic University Shahriar Mostashari, Campbell University David Murphy, Boston College Robert C. Myers, University of Louisville Barin Nag, Towson State University Nizam S. Najd, Oklahoma State University Harvey Nye, Central State University Alan D. Olinsky, Bryant College Savas Ozatalay, Widener University Young Park, California University of Pennsylvania A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 17 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 22. xviii Preface Cy Peebles, Eastern Kentucky University Yusheng Peng, Brooklyn College Dane K. Peterson, Southwest Missouri State University Sanjeev Phukan, Bemidji State University Ranga Ramasesh, Texas Christian University William Rife, West Virginia University Bonnie Robeson, Johns Hopkins University Grover Rodich, Portland State University Vijay Shah, West Virginia University–Parkersburg L. Wayne Shell, Nicholls State University Thomas Sloan, University of Massachusetts–Lowell Richard Slovacek, North Central College Alan D. Smith, Robert Morris University John Swearingen, Bryant College F. S. Tanaka, Slippery Rock State University Jack Taylor, Portland State University Madeline Thimmes, Utah State University M. Keith Thomas, Olivet College Andrew Tiger, Southeastern Oklahoma State University Chris Vertullo, Marist College James Vigen, California State University, Bakersfield William Webster, University of Texas at San Antonio Larry Weinstein, Eastern Kentucky University Fred E. Williams, University of Michigan–Flint Mela Wyeth, Charleston Southern University Oliver Yu, San Jose State University We are very grateful to all the people at Pearson who worked so hard to make this book a suc- cess. These include Donna Battista, editor in chief; Mary Kate Murray, senior project manager; and Kathryn Dinovo, senior production project manager. We are also grateful to Tracy Duff, our project manager at PreMediaGlobal. We are extremely thankful to Annie Puciloski for her tireless work in error checking the textbook. Thank you all! Barry Render brender@rollins.edu Ralph Stair Michael Hanna hanna@uhcl.edu Trevor S. Hale halet@uhd.edu I am extremely grateful to all the people at Pearson India Education Services Pvt. Ltd, who made the Indian adaptation of this book happen: Pradeep Kumar Bhattacharjee, C. Purushothaman and many others. Badri Toppur badri.toppur@gmail.com A01_REND8587_SE_FM.indd 18 05-05-2016 PM 01:17:07
  • 23. 1 leARnIng OBJeCTIVeS 5. Use computers and spreadsheet models to perform quantitative analysis 6. Discuss possible problems in using quantitative analysis. 7. Perform a break-even analysis. 1. Describe the quantitative analysis approach. 2. Understand the application of quantitative analysis in a real situation. 3. Describe the three categories of business analytics. 4. Describe the use of modeling in quantitative analysis. After completing this chapter, students will be able to: Summary • Glossary • Key Equations • Self-Test • Discussion Questions and Problems • Case Study: Food and Beverages at Southwestern University Football Games • Bibliography 1.6 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models in the Quantitative Analysis Approach 1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis Approach 1.8 Implementation—Not Just the Final Step 1.1 Introduction 1.2 What is Quantitative Analysis? 1.3 Business Analytics 1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 1.5 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model CHAPTeR OUTlIne CHAPTER 1 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis QAM Chapter 1.indd 1 21-Dec-15 9:29:23 AM
  • 24. 2 Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1.1 Introduction People have been using mathematical tools to help solve problems for thousands of years; how- ever, the formal study and application of quantitative techniques to practical decision making is largely a product of the twentieth century. The techniques we study in this book have been applied successfully to an increasingly wide variety of complex problems in business, govern- ment, health care, education, and many other areas. Many such successful uses are discussed throughout this book. It isn’t enough, though, just to know the mathematics of how a particular quantitative tech- nique works; you must also be familiar with the limitations, assumptions, and specific applica- bility of the technique. The successful use of quantitative techniques usually results in a solution that is timely, accurate, flexible, economical, reliable, and easy to understand and use. In this and other chapters, there are QA (Quantitative Analysis) in Action boxes that provide success stories on the applications of management science. They show how organizations have used quantitative techniques to make better decisions, operate more efficiently, and generate more profits. Taco Bell has reported saving over $150 million with better forecasting of demand and better scheduling of employees. NBC television increased advertising revenue by over $200 million between 1996 and 2000 by using a model to help develop sales plans for advertisers. Continental Airlines saves over $40 million per year by using mathematical models to quickly recover from disruptions caused by weather delays and other factors. These are but a few of the many companies discussed in QA in Action boxes throughout this book. To see other examples of how companies use quantitative analysis or operations research methods to operate better and more efficiently, go to the website www.scienceofbetter.org. The success stories presented there are categorized by industry, functional area, and benefit. These success stories illustrate how operations research is truly the “science of better.” 1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis? Quantitative analysis is the scientific approach to managerial decision making. This field of study has several different names including quantitative analysis, management science, and op- erations research. These terms are used interchangeably in this book. Also, many of the quantita- tive analysis methods presented in this book are used extensively in business analytics. Whim, emotions, and guesswork are not part of the quantitative analysis approach. The ap- proach starts with data. Like raw material for a factory, these data are manipulated or processed into information that is valuable to people making decisions. This processing and manipulating of raw data into meaningful information is the heart of quantitative analysis. Computers have been instrumental in the increasing use of quantitative analysis. In solving a problem, managers must consider both qualitative and quantitative factors. For example, we might consider several different investment alternatives, including certificates of deposit at a bank, investments in the stock market, and an investment in real estate. We can use quantitative analysis to determine how much our investment will be worth in the future when de- posited at a bank at a given interest rate for a certain number of years. Quantitative analysis can also be used in computing financial ratios from the balance sheets for several companies whose stock we are considering. Some real estate companies have developed computer programs that use quantitative analysis to analyze cash flows and rates of return for investment property. In addition to quantitative analysis, qualitative factors should also be considered. The weather, state and federal legislation, new technological breakthroughs, the outcome of an elec- tion, and so on may all be factors that are difficult to quantify. Because of the importance of qualitative factors, the role of quantitative analysis in the ­ decision-making process can vary. When there is a lack of qualitative factors and when the prob- lem, model, and input data remain the same, the results of quantitative analysis can automate the decision-making process. For example, some companies use quantitative inventory models to determine automatically when to order additional new materials. In most cases, however, quanti- tative analysis will be an aid to the decision-making process. The results of quantitative analysis will be combined with other (qualitative) information in making decisions. Quantitative analysis has been particularly important in many areas of management. The field of production management, which evolved into production/operations management (POM) Quantitative analysis uses a scientific approach to decision making. Both qualitative and quantitative factors must be considered. QAM Chapter 1.indd 2 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
  • 25. 1.3 Business Analytics 3 as society became more service oriented, uses quantitative analysis extensively. While POM focuses on internal operations of a company, the field of supply chain management takes a more complete view of the business and considers the entire process of obtaining materials from sup- pliers, using the materials to develop products, and distributing these products to the final con- sumers. Supply chain management makes extensive use of many management science models. Another area of management that could not exist without the quantitative analysis methods pre- sented in this book, and perhaps the hottest discipline in business today, is business analytics. 1.3 Business Analytics Business analytics is a data-driven approach to decision making that allows companies to make better decisions. The study of business analytics involves the use of large amounts of data, which means that information technology related to the management of the data is very important. Sta- tistical and quantitative analysis are used to analyze the data and provide useful information to the decision maker. Business analytics is often broken into three categories: descriptive, predictive, and pre- scriptive. Descriptive analytics involves the study and consolidation of historical data for a business and an industry. It helps a company measure how it has performed in the past and how it is performing now. Predictive analytics is aimed at forecasting future outcomes based on patterns in the past data. Statistical and mathematical models are used extensively for this pur- pose. Prescriptive analytics involves the use of optimization methods to provide new and better ways to operate based on specific business objectives. The optimization models presented in this book are very important to prescriptive analytics. While there are only three business analytics categories, many business decisions are made based on information obtained from two or three of these categories. Many of the quantitative analysis techniques presented in the chapters of this book are used extensively in business analytics. Table 1.1 highlights the three categories of business analytics, and it places many of the topics and chapters in this book in the most relevant category. Keep in mind that some topics (and certainly some chapters with multiple concepts and models) could possibly be placed in a different category. Some of the material in this book could overlap two or even three of these categories. Nevertheless, all of these quantitative analysis techniques are very important tools in business analytics. BUSINESS ANALYTICS CATEGORY QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE (CHAPTER) Descriptive analytics • Statistical measures such as means and standard deviations (Chapter 2) • Statistical quality control (Chapter 15) Predictive analytics • Decision analysis and decision trees (Chapter 3) • Regression models (Chapter 4) • Forecasting (Chapter 5) • Project scheduling (Chapter 11) • Waiting line models (Chapter 12) • Simulation (Chapter 13) • Markov analysis (Chapter 14) Prescriptive analytics • Inventory models such as the economic order quantity (Chapter 6) • Linear programming (Chapters 7, 8) • Transportation and assignment models (Chapter 9) • Integer programming, goal programming, and nonlinear programming (Chapter 10) • Network models (Chapter 9) The three categories of business analytics are descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive. TABLE 1.1 Business Analytics and Quantitative Analysis Models QAM Chapter 1.indd 3 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
  • 26. 4 Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach The quantitative analysis approach consists of defining a problem, developing a model, acquir- ing input data, developing a solution, testing the solution, analyzing the results, and implement- ing the results (see Figure 1.1). One step does not have to be finished completely before the next is started; in most cases, one or more of these steps will be modified to some extent before the final results are implemented. This would cause all of the subsequent steps to be changed. In some cases, testing the solution might reveal that the model or the input data are not correct. This would mean that all steps that follow defining the problem would need to be modified. Defining the Problem The first step in the quantitative approach is to develop a clear, concise statement of the ­ problem. This statement will give direction and meaning to the following steps. In many cases, defining the problem is the most important and the most difficult step. It is essential to go beyond the symptoms of the problem and identify the true causes. One problem may be related to other problems; solving one problem without regard to other related problems can make the entire situation worse. Thus, it is important to analyze how the solution to one problem affects other problems or the situation in general. It is likely that an organization will have several problems. However, a quantitative analysis group usually cannot deal with all of an organization’s problems at one time. Thus, it is usually necessary to concentrate on only a few problems. For most companies, this means selecting those problems whose solutions will result in the greatest increase in profits or reduction in costs to the company. The importance of selecting the right problems to solve cannot be overempha- sized. Experience has shown that bad problem definition is a major reason for failure of manage- ment science or operations research groups to serve their organizations well. When the problem is difficult to quantify, it may be necessary to develop specific, measur- able objectives. A problem might be inadequate health care delivery in a hospital. The objectives might be to increase the number of beds, reduce the average number of days a patient spends in the hospital, increase the physician-to-patient ratio, and so on. When objectives are used, however, the real problem should be kept in mind. It is important to avoid obtaining specific and measurable objectives that may not solve the real problem. Developing a Model Once we select the problem to be analyzed, the next step is to develop a model. Simply stated, a model is a representation (usually mathematical) of a situation. Even though you might not have been aware of it, you have been using models most of your life. You may have developed models about people’s behavior. Your model might be that friend- ship is based on reciprocity, an exchange of favors. If you need a favor such as a small loan, your model would suggest that you ask a good friend. Of course, there are many other types of models. Architects sometimes make a physical model of a building that they will construct. Engineers develop scale models of chemical plants, called pilot plants. A schematic model is a picture, drawing, or chart of reality. Automobiles, lawn mow- ers, gears, fans, typewriters, and numerous other devices have schematic models (drawings and FIGURE 1.1 The Quantitative Analysis Approach Concentrate on only a few problems. Defining the problem can be the most important step. The types of models include physical, scale, schematic, and mathematical models. Quantitative analysis has been in existence since the beginning of recorded history, but it was Frederick W. Taylor who in the early 1900s pioneered the principles of the scientific approach to man- agement. During World War II, many new scientific and quantita- tive techniques were developed to assist the military. These new developments were so successful that after World War II many companies started using similar techniques in managerial decision making and planning. Today, many organizations employ a staff of operations research or management science personnel or con- sultants to apply the principles of scientific management to prob- lems and opportunities. The origin of many of the techniques discussed in this book can be traced to individuals and organizations that have applied the principles of scientific management first developed by Taylor; they are discussed in History boxes scattered throughout the book HISTORY The Origin of Quantitative Analysis QAM Chapter 1.indd 4 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
  • 27. 1.4 the QuantItatIve analysIs approaCh 5 pictures) that reveal how these devices work. What sets quantitative analysis apart from other tech- niques is that the models that are used are mathematical. A mathematical model is a set of mathe- matical relationships. In most cases, these relationships are expressed in equations and inequalities, as they are in a spreadsheet model that computes sums, averages, or standard deviations. Although there is considerable flexibility in the development of models, most of the models presented in this book contain one or more variables and parameters. A variable, as the name implies, is a measurable quantity that may vary or is subject to change. Variables can be controllable or uncontrollable. A controllable variable is also called a decision variable. An example would be how many inventory items to order. A parameter is a measurable quantity that is inherent in the problem. The cost of placing an order for more inventory items is an example of a parameter. In most cases, variables are unknown quantities, while parameters are known quantities. All models should be developed carefully. They should be solvable, realistic, and easy to understand and modify, and the required input data should be obtainable. The model developer has to be careful to include the appropriate amount of detail to be solvable yet realistic. Acquiring Input Data Once we have developed a model, we must obtain the data that are used in the model (input data). Obtaining accurate data for the model is essential; even if the model is a perfect represen- tation of reality, improper data will result in misleading results. This situation is called garbage in, garbage out. For a larger problem, collecting accurate data can be one of the most difficult steps in performing quantitative analysis. There are a number of sources that can be used in collecting data. In some cases, company reports and documents can be used to obtain the necessary data. Another source is interviews with employees or other persons related to the firm. These individuals can sometimes provide excellent information, and their experience and judgment can be invaluable. A production super- visor, for example, might be able to tell you with a great degree of accuracy the amount of time it takes to produce a particular product. Sampling and direct measurement provide other sources of data for the model. You may need to know how many pounds of raw material are used in producing a new photochemical product. This information can be obtained by going to the plant and actually measuring with scales the amount of raw material that is being used. In other cases, statistical sampling procedures can be used to obtain data. Developing a Solution Developing a solution involves manipulating the model to arrive at the best (optimal) solution to the problem. In some cases, this requires that an equation be solved for the best decision. In other cases, you can use a trial and error method, trying various approaches and picking the one that results in the best decision. For some problems, you may wish to try all possible values for Operations research and Oil spills operations researchers and decision scientists have been in- vestigating oil spill response and alleviation strategies since long before the BP oil spill disaster of 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. A four-phase classification system has emerged for disaster re- sponse research: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recov- ery. Mitigation means reducing the probability that a disaster will occur and implementing robust, forward-thinking strategies to reduce the effects of a disaster that does occur. Preparedness is any and all organization efforts that happen a priori to a disaster. Response is the location, allocation, and overall coordination of resources and procedures during the disaster that are aimed at preserving life and property. Recovery is the set of actions taken to minimize the long-term impacts of a particular disaster after the immediate situation has stabilized. Many quantitative tools have helped in areas of risk analysis, insurance, logistical preparation and supply management, evac- uation planning, and development of communication systems. Recent research has shown that while many strides and discover- ies have been made, much research is still needed. Certainly each of the four disaster response areas could benefit from additional research, but recovery seems to be of particular concern and per- haps the most promising for future research. Source: Based on N. Altay and W. Green. “OR/MS Research in Disaster Operations Management,” European Journal of Operational Research 175, 1 (2006): 475–493 In ACTIOn Garbage in, garbage out means that improper data will result in misleading results. QAM Chapter 1.indd 5 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
  • 28. 6 Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis the variables in the model to arrive at the best decision. This is called complete enumeration. This book also shows you how to solve very difficult and complex problems by repeating a few simple steps until you find the best solution. A series of steps or procedures that are repeated is called an algorithm, named after Algorismus, an Arabic mathematician of the ninth century. The accuracy of a solution depends on the accuracy of the input data and the model. If the input data are accurate to only two significant digits, then the results can be accurate to only two significant digits. For example, the results of dividing 2.6 by 1.4 should be 1.9, not 1.857142857. Testing the Solution Before a solution can be analyzed and implemented, it needs to be tested completely. Because the solution depends on the input data and the model, both require testing. Testing the input data and the model includes determining the accuracy and completeness of the data used by the model. Inaccurate data will lead to an inaccurate solution. There are several ways to test input data. One method of testing the data is to collect additional data from a differ- ent source. If the original data were collected using interviews, perhaps some additional data can be collected by direct measurement or sampling. These additional data can then be compared with the original data, and statistical tests can be employed to determine whether there are dif- ferences between the original data and the additional data. If there are significant differences, more effort is required to obtain accurate input data. If the data are accurate but the results are inconsistent with the problem, the model may not be appropriate. The model can be checked to make sure that it is logical and represents the real situation. Although most of the quantitative techniques discussed in this book have been computer- ized, you will probably be required to solve a number of problems by hand. To help detect both logical and computational mistakes, you should check the results to make sure that they are con- sistent with the structure of the problem. For example, (1.96)(301.7) is close to (2)(300), which is equal to 600. If your computations are significantly different from 600, you know you have made a mistake. Analyzing the Results and Sensitivity Analysis Analyzing the results starts with determining the implications of the solution. In most cases, a solution to a problem will result in some kind of action or change in the way an organization is operating. The implications of these actions or changes must be determined and analyzed before the results are implemented. Because a model is only an approximation of reality, the sensitivity of the solution to changes in the model and input data is a very important part of analyzing the results. This type of analysis is called sensitivity analysis or postoptimality analysis. It determines how much the solution will change if there were changes in the model or the input data. When the solution is sensitive to changes in the input data and the model specification, additional testing should be performed to make sure that the model and input data are accurate and valid. If the model or data are wrong, the solution could be wrong, resulting in financial losses or reduced profits. The importance of sensitivity analysis cannot be overemphasized. Because input data may not always be accurate or model assumptions may not be completely appropriate, sensitivity analysis can become an important part of the quantitative analysis approach. Most of the chap- ters in the book cover the use of sensitivity analysis as part of the decision-making and problem- solving process. Implementing the Results The final step is to implement the results. This is the process of incorporating the solution into the company. This can be much more difficult than you would imagine. Even if the solution is optimal and will result in millions of dollars in additional profits, if managers resist the new solution, all of the efforts of the analysis are of no value. Experience has shown that a large number of quantitative analysis teams have failed in their efforts because they have failed to im- plement a good, workable solution properly. After the solution has been implemented, it should be closely monitored. Over time, there may be numerous changes that call for modifications of the original solution. A changing econ- omy, fluctuating demand, and model enhancements requested by managers and decision makers are only a few examples of changes that might require the analysis to be modified. The input data and model determine the accuracy of the solution. Testing the data and model is done before the results are analyzed. Sensitivity analysis determines how the solutions will change with a different model or input data. QAM Chapter 1.indd 6 21-Dec-15 9:29:24 AM
  • 29. 1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 7 Defining the Problem CSX Transportation, Inc., has 35,000 employees and annual revenue of $11 billion. It provides rail freight services to 23 states east of the Mississippi River, as well as parts of Canada. CSX receives orders for rail delivery service and must send empty railcars to customer locations. Moving these empty railcars results in hundreds of thousands of empty-car miles every day. If allocations of railcars to customers is not done properly, problems arise from excess costs, wear and tear on the system, and congestion on the tracks and at rail yards. Developing a Model In order to provide a more efficient scheduling system, CSX spent 2 years and $5 million developing its Dynamic Car-Planning (DCP) system. This model will minimize costs, including car travel distance, car han- dling costs at the rail yards, car travel time, and costs for being early or late. It does this while at the same time filling all orders, making sure the right type of car is assigned to the job, and getting the car to the destination in the allowable time. Acquiring Input Data In developing the model, the company used historical data for testing. In running the model, the DCP uses three external sources to obtain information on the customer car orders, the available cars of the type needed, and the transit-time standards. In addition to these, two internal input sources provide informa- tion on customer priorities and preferences and on cost parameters. Developing a Solution This model takes about 1 minute to load but only 10 seconds to solve. Because supply and demand are constantly changing, the model is run about every 15 minutes. This allows final decisions to be delayed until absolutely necessary. Testing the Solution The model was validated and verified using existing data. The solutions found using the DCP were found to be very good compared to assignments made without DCP Analyzing the Results Since the implementation of DCP in 1997, more than $51 million has been saved annually. Due to the im- proved efficiency, it is estimated that CSX avoided spending another $1.4 billion to purchase an additional 18,000 railcars that would have been needed without DCP. Other benefits include reduced congestion in the rail yards and reduced congestion on the tracks, which are major concerns. This greater efficiency means that more freight can ship by rail rather than by truck, resulting in significant public benefits. These benefits include reduced pollution and greenhouse gases, improved highway safety, and reduced road maintenance costs. Implementing the Results Both senior-level management who championed DCP and key car-distribution experts who supported the new approach were instrumental in gaining acceptance of the new system and overcoming problems during the implementation. The job description of the car distributors was changed from car allocators to cost technicians. They are responsible for seeing that accurate cost information is entered into DCP, and they also manage any exceptions that must be made. They were given extensive training on how DCP works so they could understand and better accept the new system. Due to the success of DCP, other rail- roads have implemented similar systems and achieved similar benefits. CSX continues to enhance DCP to make DCP even more customer friendly and to improve car-order forecasts. Source: Based on M. F. Gorman, et al. “CSX Railway Uses OR to Cash in on Optimized Equipment Distribution,” Interfaces 40, 1 (January–February 2010): 5 –16. modeling in the real world Railroad Uses Optimization Models to Save Millions QAM Chapter 1.indd 7 21-Dec-15 9:29:25 AM
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  • 31. [1067] The estimates of numbers in all the operations throughout the Conquest differ widely, sometimes very widely, according to different authorities. The student will find much of the collation of these opposing statements done for him in the notes of Prescott and Bancroft. [1068] Fac-simile of an engraving on copper in the edition of Solis printed at Venice in 1715, p. 29. It is inscribed: “Cavato da vn originale fatto iñazi chei si portassi alla Conqvista del Messico.” [1069] Fac-simile of the copper plate in the Venice edition of Solis Conquista (1715) inscribed “Cavato dall’originale venvto dal Messico al Sermo G. D. di Toscana.” [1070] H. H. Bancroft (Mexico, i. 378) and Prescott (new edition vol. ii., p. 231) collate the authorities. [1071] There are a variety of views as to the force Cortés now commanded; cf. H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, i. 424. [1072] Prescott (Mexico, new ed., ii. 309) collates the diverse accounts. [1073] It must be mentioned that the Spaniards have been accused of murdering Montezuma. Bancroft (Mexico, i. 464) collates the different views of the authorities. Cortes sent the body out of the fort. Indignities were offered it; but some of the imperial party got possession of it, and buried it with such honor as the times permitted. [1074] There are difficulties about the exact date; cf. H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, i. 472. [1075] Bancroft (Mexico, i. 488) collates the various authorities; so does Prescott (Mexico, new ed., ii. 364) of the losses of this famous triste Noche. [1076] The figures usually given are enormous, and often greatly vary with the different authorities. In this as in other cases where numbers are mentioned, Prescott and Bancroft collate the several reckonings which have been recorded. [1077] Their chief was Juan Florin, who has been identified by some with Verrazano.
  • 32. [1078] H. H. Bancroft (Central Mexico, i. 626) collates as usual the various estimates of Alvarado’s force. [1079] There is some doubt whether the alleged plot was not, after all, a fiction to cover the getting rid of burdensome personages. H. H. Bancroft (Central America, i. 555) collates the various views, but it does not seem that any unassailable conclusion can be reached. [1080] Part of a view of Acapulco as given in Montanus and Ogilby, p. 261, showing the topography, but representing the later fort and buildings. The same picture, on a larger scale, was published by Vander Aa at Amsterdam. A plan of the harbor is given in Bancroft’s Mexico, iii. 25. The place had no considerable importance as a Spanish settlement till 1550 (Ibid., ii. 420). Cf. the view in Gay’s Popular History of the United States, ii. 586. [1081] The remains of Cortés have rested uneasily. They were buried at Seville; but in 1562 his son removed them to New Spain and placed them in a monastery at Tezcuco. In 1629 they were carried with pomp to Mexico to the church of St. Francis; and again, in 1794, they were transferred to the Hospital of Jesus (Prescott, Mexico, iii. 465), where a monument with a bust was placed over them. In 1823, when a patriotic zeal was turned into the wildness of a mob, the tomb was threatened, and some soberer citizens secretly removed the monument and sent it (and later the remains) clandestinely to his descendant, the Duke of Monteleone, in Palermo, where they are supposed now to be, if the story of this secret shipment is true (Prescott, Mexico, iii. 335; Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., pp. 219, 220; Bancroft, Mexico, iii. 479, 480). Testimony regarding the earlier interment and exhumation is given in the Coleccion de documentos inéditos (España), xxii. 563. Cf. B. Murphy on “The Tomb of Cortés” in the Catholic World, xxxiii. 24. For an account of the family and descendants of Cortés, see Bancroft, ii. 480; Prescott, iii. 336. The latter traces what little is known of the later life of Marina (vol. iii. p. 279). [1082] Those pertaining to Cortés in vols. i.-iv. of the Documentos inéditos (España) had already appeared. Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., pp. 213-215, enumerates the manuscripts which had been collected by Prescott. Clavigero had given accounts of the collections in the Vatican, at Vienna, and of those of Boturini, etc.
  • 33. [1083] Sabin, vol. xx. no. 34,153. In the Introduction to both volumes Icazbalceta discusses learnedly the authorship of the various papers, and makes note of considerable bibliographical detail. The edition was three hundred copies, with twelve on large paper. [1084] Vol. i. 281; see also ante, p. 215. [1085] Vol. i. 368. This plan is given on an earlier page. Cf. Bancroft, Early American Chroniclers, p. 15. [1086] See chap. v. p. 343. [1087] Mexico, ii. 96. A part of it was printed in the Documentos inéditos as “Ritos antiquos... de las Indias.” Cf. Kingsborough, vol. ix. [1088] Mexico, i. 405. [1089] Prescott, Mexico, ii. 147. [1090] Sabin, vol. ix. nos. 34,154-34,156; Quaritch, Ramirez Collection (1880), no. 89, priced it at £40. [1091] This institution is clearly defined by Helps, iii. 141. Cf. Bancroft, Central America, i. 250. [1092] Prescott, Mexico, ii. 272; Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 373; Murphy Catalogue, no. 2,092; Pinart-Brasseur Catalogue, no. 770. The book has a portrait of Alvarado, and is enriched with notes by Ramirez. The manuscript of the charges against Alvarado was discovered in 1846 among some supposed waste-papers in the Mexican Archives which the licentiate, Ignacio Rayon, was then examining (Bancroft, Central America, ii. 104). [1093] Mexico, ii. 9. Bancroft says he uses a copy made from one which escaped the fire that destroyed so much in 1692, and which belonged to the Maximilian Collection. Quaritch offered, a few years since, as from the Ramirez Collection, for £175, the Acts of the Municipality of Mexico, 1524-1564, in six manuscript volumes. Bancroft (Mexico, iii. 508, etc.), enumerates the sources of a later period. [1094] Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, p. xxxiv.
  • 34. [1095] There appeared in 1882, in two volumes, in the Biblioteca de los Americanistas, a Historia de Guatemala ó recordación Florida escrita el siglo XVII por el Capitán D. Francisco Antonio de Fuentes y Guzman ... publica por primera vez con notas é ilustraciones D. Justo Zaragoza. [1096] Quaritch in his Catalogue, no. 321, sub 11,807, shows a collection of forty-seven for £50, apparently the Ramirez Collection. Cf. Sabin, vol. iii. no. 9,567, etc. [1097] Mexico, vol. i. p. viii. [1098] Indeed, the footnotes of Prescott are meagre by comparison. The enumeration of the manuscript sources on the Conquest given in Charton’s Voyageurs, iii. 420, shows what provision of this sort was most to be depended on thirty years ago. There is a set of nine folios in Harvard College Library, gathered by Lord Kingsborough, called Documentos para el historia de México y Peru. It includes some manuscripts; but they are all largely, perhaps wholly, of a later period than the Conquest. [1099] Quaritch, who in his Catalogue of 1870 (no. 259, sub 376) advertised for £105 the original manuscripts of three at least of these councils (1555, 1565, 1585), intimates that they never were returned into the Ecclesiastical Archives after Lorenzana had used them in preparing an edition of the Proceedings of these Councils which he published in 1769 and 1770,—Concilios provinciales de México,—though in the third, and perhaps in the first, he had translated apparently his text from the Latin published versions. Bancroft describes these manuscripts in his Mexico, ii. 685. The Acts of the First Council had been printed (1556) before Lorenzana; but the book was suppressed, and the Acts of the Third Council had been printed in 1622 in Mexico, and in 1725 at Paris. The Acts of the Third also appeared in 1859 at Mexico with other documents. The readiest source for the English reader of the history of the measures for the conversion of the Indians and for the relation of the Church to the civil authorities in New Spain are sundry chapters (viii., xix., etc.) in Bancroft’s Central America, and others (ix., xix., xxxi., xxxii.) in his Mexico. (Cf. references in Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., p. 209.) The leading Spanish authorities are Torobio Motolinia, Mendieta, and Torquemada, all characterized elsewhere. Alonso Fernandez’
  • 35. Historia eclesiástica de nuestros tiempos (Toledo, 1611) is full in elucidation of the lives of the friars and of their study of the native tongues. (Cf. Rich, 1832, £2 2s.; Quaritch, 1870, £5; Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 190.) Gil Gonzales Davila’s Teatro eclesiástico de la primitiva Iglesia de las Indias (Madrid, 1649-1655) is more important and rarer (Quaritch, 1870, £8 8s.; Rosenthal, Munich, 1884, for 150 marks; Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 189). Of Las Casas and his efforts, see the preceding chapter in the present volume. The Orders of friars are made the subject of special treatment in Bancroft’s Mexico. The Franciscans were the earliest to arrive, coming, in response to the wish of Cortés, in 1524. There are various histories of their labors,—Francisco Gonzaga’s De origine seraphicæ religionis Franciscanæ, Rome, 1587 (Carter-Brown, i. 372); sections of Torquemada and the fourth part of Vetancour’s Teatro Mexicano, Mexico, 1697-1698; Francisco Vasquez’ Chronica ... de Guatemala, 1714; Espinosa’s Chronica apostolica, 1746 (Sabin, vi. 239; Carter-Brown, iii. 827), etc. Of the Dominicans we have Antonio de Remesal’s Historia de la S. Vincent de Chyapa, Madrid, 1619 (Bancroft, Central America, ii. 339, 736), and Davilla Padilla’s Santiago de México, mentioned in the text. Of the Augustinian friars there is Juan de Grijalva’s Cronica, Mexico, 1624. Of the books on the Jesuits who came late (1571, etc.), there is a note in Bancroft’s Mexico, iii. 447, showing as of chief importance Francisco de Florencia’s Compañia de Jesus (Mexico, 1694), while the subject was taken up under the same title by Francisco Javier Alegre, who told the story of their missions from 1566 in Florida to 1765. The manuscript of this work was not printed till Bustamante edited it in 1841. The legend or belief in our Lady of Guadalupe gives a picturesque and significant coloring to the history of missions in Mexico, since from the day of her apparition the native worship, it is said, steadily declined. It is briefly thus: In 1531 a native who had received a baptismal name of Juan Diego, passing a hill neighboring to the city of Mexico, was confronted by a radiant being who announced herself as the Virgin Mary, and who said that she wished a church to be built on the spot. The native’s story, as he told it to the Bishop, was discredited, until some persons sent to follow the Indian saw him disappear unaccountably from sight. It was now thought that witchcraft more than a heavenly interposition was the cause, until, again confronting the apparition, Diego was bidden to take some roses which the Lady
  • 36. had handled and carry them in his mantle to the Bishop, who would recognize them as a sign. When the garment was unrolled, the figure of the Virgin was found painted in its folds, and the sign was accepted. A shrine was soon erected, as the Lady had wished; and here the holy effigy was sacredly guarded, until it found a resting-place in what is thought to be the richest church in Mexico, erected between 1695 and 1709; and there it still is. It has been at times subjected to some ecclesiastical scrutiny, and there have been some sceptics and cavillers. Cf. Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 407, and authorities there cited. Lorenzana in his Cartas pastorales (1770) has given a minute account of the painting (Carter-Brown, vol. iii. no. 1,749; Sabin, vol, xii. no. 56,199; and the Coleccion de obras pertenecientes a la milagrosa aparicion de Nuestra Señora de Guadalupe). [1100] Carter-Brown, i. 496; Bancroft, Mexico, iii. 723. There is a copy in Harvard College Library. There were later editions at Brussels in 1625 (Carter-Brown, ii. 300; Stevens, Historical Collection, i. 177), and again at Valladolid in 1634 as Varia historia de la Nueva España y Florida, segunda impresion (Carter- Brown, ii. 412). [1101] We read in the 1596 edition (p. 670) that one Juan Pablos was the first printer in Mexico, who printed, as early as 1535, a religious manual of Saint John Climachus. The book, however, is not now known (Sabin, vi. 229), and there is no indisputable evidence of its former existence; though a similar story is told by Alonzo Fernandez in his Historia eclesiástica (Toledo, 1611), and by Gil Gonzales Davila in his Teatro eclesiástico (Madrid, 1649),— who gives, however, the date as 1532. The Teatro is of further interest for the map of the diocese of Michoacan and for the arms of the different dioceses. It is in two volumes, and is worth from thirty to forty dollars. The subject of early printing in Mexico has been investigated by Icazbalceta in the Diccionario universal de historia y de geografia, v. 961 (published in Mexico in 1854), where he gives a list of Mexican imprints prior to 1600 (Carter-Brown, i. 129, 130). A similar list is given in connection with an examination of the subject by Harrisse in his Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 232. Mr. John Russell Bartlett gives another list (1540 to 1600) in the Carter- Brown Catalogue, i. 131, and offers other essays on the subject in the Historical Magazine, November, 1858, and February, 1865,
  • 37. and again in the new edition of Thomas’s History of Printing (Worcester, 1875), i. 365, appendix. The earliest remaining example of the first Mexican press which we have is a fragmentary copy of the Manual de adultos of Cristóbal Cabrera, which was originally discovered in the Library of Toledo, whence it disappeared, to be again discovered by Gayangos on a London bookstall in 1870. It is supposed to have consisted of thirty-eight leaves, and the printed date of Dec. 13, 1540, is given on one of the leaves which remain (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 232; Additions, no. 123, with fac-similes, of which a part is given in the Carter-Brown Catalogue, i. 131). Harrisse, perhaps, is in error, as Quaritch affirms (Ramirez Collection, 1880, no. 339), in assigning the same date, 1540, to an edition of the Doctrina Christiana found by him at Toledo; and there seem to have been one or two other books issued by Cromberger (Catalogue Andrade, nos. 2,366, 2,367, 2,369, 2,477) before we come to an acknowledged edition of the Doctrina Cristiana— which for a long time was held to be the earliest Mexican imprint —with the date of 1544. It is a small volume of sixty pages, “impressa en México, en casa de Juan Cromberger” (Rich, 1832, no. 14; Sabin, vol. iv, no. 16,777; Carter-Brown, i. 134, with fac- similes of title; Bookworm, 1867, p. 114; Quaritch, no. 321, sub 12,551). Of the same date is Dionisio Richel’s Compendio breve que tracta a’ la manera de como se hā de hazer las processiones, also printed, as the earlier one was, by command of Bishop Zumarraga, this time with a distinct date,—“Año de M. D. xliiij.” A copy which belonged to the Emperor Maximilian was sold in the Andrade sale (no. 2,667), and again in the Brinley sale (no. 5,317). Quaritch priced Ramirez’ copy in 1880 at £52. The lists above referred to show eight separate issues of the Mexican press before 1545. Icazbalceta puts, under 1548, the Doctrina en Mexicano as the earliest instance known of a book printed in the native tongue. Up to 1563, with the exception of a few vocabularies and grammars of the languages of the country, of the less than forty books which are known to us, nearly all are of a theological or devotional character. In that year (1663) Vasco de Puga’s Collection of Laws—Provisiones, cédulas, instrucciones de su Majestad—was printed (Quaritch, Ramirez Collection, 1880, no. 236, £30). Falkenstein in his Geschichte der Buchdruckerkunst (Leipsic, 1840) has alleged, following Pinelo and others, that a Collection of Laws—Ordinationes legumque collectiones—was printed in 1649; but the existence of such a
  • 38. book is denied. Cf. Thomas, History of Printing, i. 372; Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 288. [1102] Quaritch, Ramirez Collection (1880), no. 28, £15; Sabin, vol. 1. no. 3,349; Carter-Brown, iii. 893; Rich, Bibl. Nova Amer. (1835), p. 95; Stevens, Bibliotheca historica, no. 126; Leclerc, no. 50,—400 francs; Field, Indian Bibliography, no. 79. [1103] Navarrete first printed it in his Coleccion, i. 421; it was included also in Vedia’s Historiadores primitivos de Indias (Madrid, 1852); and Gayangos, in his Cartas de Hernan Cortés (Paris, 1866) does not hesitate to let it stand for the first letter, while he also annotates it. It is likewise printed in the Biblioteca de autores Españoles, vol. xxii., and by Alaman in his Disertaciones sobre la historia de la República Mejicana, vol. i., appendix, with a sketch of the expedition. Cf. Prescott’s Mexico, i. 360, iii. 428; H. H. Bancroft’s Mexico, i. 169. [1104] Bancroft, Mexico, i. 170. It is supposed that still a third letter went at the same time, which is now known to us. Three letters of this time were found in 1866 among some old account-books in a library sold in Austria. Two of them proved to be written in Spain upon the news of Cortés’ discoveries, while one was written by a companion of Cortés shortly after the landing on the Mexican coast, but is not seemingly an original, for it is written in German, and the heading runs: Newzeit wie unnsers aller- gnadigistn hern des Romischn und hyspaenischn Koningsleut Ain Costliche Newe Lanndschafft habn gefundn, and bears date June 28, 1519. There are some contradictions in it to the received accounts; but these are less important than the mistake of a modern French translator, who was not aware of the application of the name of Yucatan, at that time, to a long extent of coast, and who supposed the letters referred to Grijalva’s expedition. The original text, with a modern German and French version, appears in a small edition (thirty copies) which Frederic Muller, of Amsterdam, printed from the original manuscript (cf. his Books on America, 1872, no. 1,144; 1877, no. 2,296, priced at 120 florins) under the title of Trois lettres sur la découverte de Yucatan, Amsterdam, 1871 (Carter-Brown, vol. i. no. 66; Muller, Books on America, 1877, no. 2,296; C. H. Berendt in American Bibliopolist, July and August, 1872; Murphy, no. 2,795). One of the news-sheets of the time, circulated in Europe, is preserved in the Royal Library at Berlin. A photo-lithographic fac-
  • 39. simile was published (one hundred copies) at Berlin in 1873. It is called: Newe Zeittung. von dem lande. das die Sponier funden haben ym 1521. iare genant Iucatan. It is a small quarto in gothic type, of four unnumbered leaves, with a woodcut. Cf. Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 70, with fac-simile of title; Carter-Brown, i. 69; Muller (1877), no. 3,593; Sobolewski, no. 4,153. [1105] Prescott used a copy taken from Muñoz’ transcript. [1106] Cf. Prescott, Mexico, i. 262; Bancroft, Mexico, i. 72. [1107] Cf. Stevens, Bibliotheca historica (1870), p. 103; Historical Collections, i. 342; and the section on “Early Descriptions of America” in the present work. [1108] Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 179. [1109] Sabin, vi. 126; Carter-Brown, i. 63. [1110] Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 105. [1111] Mexico, i. 547. [1112] Cf. Harrisse Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 118; Carter-Brown, i. 71; Brunet, ii. 310; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,933; Folsom, introduction to his edition. The Lenox and Barlow libraries have most, if not all, of the various early editions of the Cortés letters. [1113] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,934; Carter-Brown, i. 73; Brunet, ii. 311; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 84; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 120; Heber, vol. vii. no. 1,884; Ternaux, no. 27. [1114] Cf. Carter-Brown, i. 81; Bibl. Amer. Vet., nos. 118, 125; Brunet, ii. 312; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166; Huth, i. 353; C. Fiske Harris, Catalogue, no. 896; Cooke Catalogue, vol. iii. no. 623; Sunderland, vol. ii. no. 3,479; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,947; Panzer, vii. 466; Menzel, Bibl. Hist., part i. p. 269; Ternaux, p. 32; Heber, vol. vi. no. 2,415 and ix. 910; Murphy Catalogue, no. 676; Stevens, American Bibliographer, p. 85. The book, when it contains the large folding plan of Mexico and the map of the Gulf of Mexico, is worth about $100. The plan and map are missing from the copy in the Boston Public Library. [D. 3101., 56, no. 1]. [1115] Cf. Brunet, ii. 312, and Supplément, col. 320; Carter-Brown, i. 82, which shows a map with inscriptions in Italian; Bibl. Amer.
  • 40. Vet., no. 129; Pinart, no. 262; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,951; Panzer, vol. viii. no. 1,248; Court, nos. 90, 91; Heber, vol. vi. no. 1,002, and x. 848; Walckenaer, no. 4,187. There are copies with another colophon (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 130), connecting two printers with it,—Lexona and Sabio. F. S. Ellis, London, 1884 (no. 60), priced a copy at £52 10s., and Dufossé (no. 14,184) at 200 francs. [1116] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,950, and xiii. 56,052; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 119; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166. [1117] It is very rare, but Tross, of Paris, had a copy in his hands in 1866. [1118] Annexed herewith in fac-simile. [1119] Cf. Arana, Bibliografía de obras anónimas (1882) no. 244. [1120] Cf. the notice of Cortés in R. C. Sands’s Writings, vol. i. [1121] The original edition of Lorenzana is usually priced at $10 to $20. Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. nos. 16,938, 16,939, and vol. x. p. 462; H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, iii. 378 (with a sketch of Lorenzana); Brunet, Supplément, i. 321; Carter-Brown, vol. iii. no. 1,750; Leclerc, no. 155; Sobolewski, no. 3,767; F. S. Ellis (1884), £2 2s. [1122] Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,942. Bancroft (Mexico, i. 549), speaking of Gayangos’ edition, says: “Although a few of Lorenzana’s blunders find correction, others are committed; and the notes of the archbishop are adopted without credit and without the necessary amendment of date, etc.,—which often makes them absurd.” [1123] The book is variously priced from $20 to $60. Cf. Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 168; Carter-Brown, vol. i. no. 100; Biblioteca Grenvilliana, p. 167; Leclerc, no. 152; Sunderland, no. 3,480; Pinart, no. 261; O’Callaghan, no. 683; Sabin, vol. iv. nos. 16,947- 16,949. There were also Latin versions in the Novus orbis of Grynæus, 1555 and 1616. [1124] The only copy known is noted in Tross’s Catalogue, 1866, no. 2,881. It is in Roman letter, sixteen leaves. [1125] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,953.
  • 41. [1126] Cf. Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 297; Ternaux, p. 57; Trömel, p. 14; Brunet, ii. 312; Stevens, Nuggets, i. 188; O’Callaghan, no. 989; Sobolewski, no. 3,766; J. J. Cooke, iii. 624 (copy now in Harvard College Library). It is usually priced at £2 or £3. Dufossé (1884, no. 14,185) held a copy at 100 francs. [1127] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,958. [1128] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,959. [1129] Cf. Carter-Brown, iii. 113. [1130] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,962. [1131] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,964. [1132] Cf. on the second letter, Prescott, Mexico, Kirk’s ed., ii. 425. [1133] Cf. Rich, (1832) no. 5,—£10 10s.; Stevens, American Bibliographer, p. 84; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166; Panzer, vii. 122; Heber, vol. vii. no. 1,884; Ternaux, no. 26; Brunet, ii. 311; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 121; Carter-Brown, i. 74; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,935. [1134] Priced by F. S. Ellis (1884) at £18 18s. [1135] Cf. Carter-Brown, i. 83; Ternaux, no. 33; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 126; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 167; Brunet, ii. 312; Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,948; Stevens, American Bibliographer, p. 87. There is a copy of the 1524 edition in the Boston Public Library. [D. 3101. 56, no. 2]. [1136] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,936; Carter-Brown, i. 85; Brunet, ii. 311; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 135; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166. [1137] The only copy known is that in the Carter-Brown Library (Catalogue, no. 88). Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,937; Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 138; Stevens, American Bibliographer, p. 85; Brunet, ii. 312; Panzer, x. 28; Heber, vol. vii. no. 1,884; Bibliotheca Grenvilliana, p. 166; Ternaux, no. 34. [1138] Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,940. [1139] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,941; Carter-Brown, i. 84; Court, no. 89; Prescott, Mexico, iii. 248.
  • 42. [1140] A letter about the Olid rebellion is lost; Helps, iii. 37. [1141] Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,943. [1142] Cf. H. Vattemare in Revue contemporaine, 1870, vii. 532. [1143] Prescott’s Mexico, iii. 266. Cf. references on this expedition to Honduras in H. H. Bancroft’s Central America, i. 537, 567, 582; ii. 144; and his Native Races, iv. 79. This Honduras expedition is also the subject of one of Ixtlilxochitl’s Relaciones, printed in Kingsborough’s ninth volume. [1144] Cartas al Emperador (Sept. 11, 1526, Oct. 10, 1530), in Documentos inéditos (España), i. 14, 31, and in Kingsborough’s Mexico, vol. viii.; Memorial al Emperador (1539) in Documentos inéditos, iv. 201. Cf. also Purchas, v. 858, and Ramusio, iii. 187. His Última y sentidisima carta, Feb. 3, 1544, is given in Documentos inéditos, i. 41, and in Prescott’s Mexico, Kirk’s ed., iii. 460. Other letters of Cortés are in the Pacheco Coleccion and in that of Icazbalceta. The twelfth volume of the Biblioteca histórica de la Iberia (Mexico, 1871), with the special title of Escritos sueltos de Cortés, gives nearly fifty documents. Icazbalceta, in the introduction of vol. i. p. xxxvii. of his Coleccion, gives a list of the escritos sueltos of Cortés in connection with a full bibliography of the series of Cartas, with corrections, derived largely from Harrisse, in vol. ii. p. lxiii. [1145] Mexico, i. 549, 696. “Ever ready with a lie when it suited his purpose; but he was far too wise a man needlessly to waste so useful an agent.”—Early American Chroniclers, p. 16. [1146] Harrisse (Bibl. Amer. Vet.) gives numerous references on Cortés. It is somewhat singular that there is no mention of him in the Novus orbis of 1532, and none in De Bry. Mr. Brevoort prepared the article on Cortés in Sabin’s Dictionary. [1147] Ticknor, Spanish Literature, ii. 30; Prescott’s Mexico, i. 474, and Peru, ii. 304, 457; H. H. Bancroft, Central America, i. 314, his Mexico, and his Early American Chroniclers, p. 21. [1148] There are curious stories about this book, in which there is not entire accord with one another. The fact seems to be that Bustamante got hold of the manuscript, and supposed it an original work of Chimalpain, and announced it for publication in a
  • 43. Spanish dress, as translated from the Nahuatl, under the title of Historia de las conquistas de Hernando Cortés, under which name it appeared in two volumes in Mexico in 1826 (Ticknor Catalogue, p. 207). Bandelier and others referring to it have supposed it to be what the title represented (Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., new series, i. 84; cf. Bibl. Amer. Vet., p. 204); but it is printed in Spanish nevertheless, and is nothing more than a translation of Gomara. Bustamante in his preface does not satisfy the reader’s curiosity, and this Mexican editor’s conduct in the matter has been the subject of apology and suspicion. Cf. Quaritch’s Catalogues, nos. 11,807, 12,043, 17,632; H. H. Bancroft, Central America, i. 315; Sabin, vii. no. 27,753. Quaritch adds that Bustamante’s text seems rather like a modern improvement of Gomara than a retranslation, and that a manuscript apparently different and called Chimalpain’s history was sold in the Abbé Fischer’s sale in 1869. [1149] It is a small folio, and has become extremely rare, owing, perhaps, in part to the attempted suppression of it. Quaritch in 1883 priced a copy at £75. It should have two maps, one of the Indies, the other of the Old World (Ternaux, no. 61; Carter- Brown, nos. 177, 178; Sunderland, vol. iii. no. 7,575; Library of an Elizabethan Admiral, 1883, no. 338; Leclerc, no. 2,779; Rich (1832), no. 23, £10 10s.; Sabin, vol. vii. no. 27,724; Murphy, no. 1,062). [1150] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 179, 180; Sabin, vol. vii. no. 27,725; Leclerc, 800 francs. Mr. J. C. Brevoort has a copy. Sabin (no. 27,726) notes a Conquista de México (Madrid, 1553) which he has not seen, but describes it at second hand as having the royal arms where the Medina edition has the arms of Cortés, and intimates that this last may have been the cause of the alleged suppression. [1151] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 187, 188, with a fac-simile of the title of the former; and on p. 169 is noted another Saragossa edition of 1555. Sabin, vol. vii. nos. 27,727, 27,728. [1152] Historia de México, Juan Steelsio, and again Juan Bellero (with his map); La historia general de las Indias, Steelsio. These are in Harvard College Library. Sabin (vol. vii. nos. 27,729-27,732) notes of these Antwerp editions,—Historia general, Nucio, Steelsio, and Bellero; Historia de México, Bellero, Lacio, Steelsio;
  • 44. and Conquista de México, Nucio. The Carter-Brown Catalogue (nos. 189-193) shows the Historia de México with the Steelsio and Bellero imprints, and copies of the Historia general with the imprints of Bellero and Martin Nucio. Quaritch prices the Bellero México at £5 5s. Rich priced it in 1832 at £3 3s. There is a Steelsio México in the Boston Public Library. Cf. Huth Catalogue, ii. 605; Murphy, nos. 1,057-1,059; Court, nos. 146, etc. Of the later Spanish texts, that in Barcia’s Historiadores primitivos (1748-1749) is mutilated; the best is that in the Biblioteca de autores Españoles, published at Madrid in 1852. [1153] Such, at least, is the condition of the copy in Harvard College Library; while the two titles are attached to different copies in the Carter-Brown Catalogue, vol. i. nos. 199, 210. The México is also in the Boston Athenæum. Cf. O’Callaghan Catalogue, no. 989. Sabin (vol. vii. nos. 27,734-27,735) says the 1555 title is a cancelled one. Mr. Brevoort possesses a Historia generale delle Indie occidentali (Rome, 1556), which he calls a translation of part i. Cf. Sabin, vol. vii. no. 27,736; Carter-Brown, vol. i. no. 200. F. S. Ellis (1884, no. 111) prices a copy at £2 2s. Sabin (no. 27,737) also notes a Gomara, as published in 1557 at Venice, as the second part of a history, of which Cieza de Leon’s was the first part. [1154] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 232, 233, 250, 306, 541; Sabin, vol. vii. nos. 27,739-27,745. The Historia general was published in Venice in 1565 as the second part of a Historie dell’Indie, of which Cieza de Leon’s Historie del Peru was the first part, and Gomara’s Conquista di Messico (1566) was the third. This Italian translation was made by Lucio Mauro. The three parts are in Harvard College Library and in the Boston Public Library (Sabin, vol. vii. no. 27,738). [1155] Carter-Brown, vol. i. nos. 273, 274, 314, 324, 334, 357, 371, 375; Sabin, vol. vii. nos. 27,746-27,750; Murphy, nos. 1,059, 1,061; O’Callaghan, no. 990. F. S. Ellis (1884, no. 108) prices the 1569 edition at £10 10s. The 1578 and 1558 editions are in Harvard College Library,—the latter is called Voyages et conquestes du Capitaine Ferdinand Courtois. Cf. Sabin, vol. iv. no. 16,955. Harrisse says that Oviedo, as well as Gomara, was used in this production. There were later French texts in 1604, 1605, and 1606. Cf. Carter-Brown, vol. ii. nos. 34, 46; Rich (1832), no.
  • 45. 104; Sabin (vol. vii. no. 27,749) also says of the 1606 edition that pp. 67-198 are additional to the 1578 edition. [1156] Carter-Brown, vol. i. no. 323; Menzies, no. 814; Crowninshield, no. 285; Rich (1832), no. 58; Brinley, no. 5,309; Murphy, no. 1,060. There are copies of this and of the 1596 reprint in Harvard College Library; and of the 1578 edition in the Massachusetts Historical Society’s Library and in Mr. Deane’s Collection; cf. Vol. III. pp. 27, 204. An abridgment of Gomara had already been given in 1555 by Eden in his Decades, and in 1577 in Eden’s History of Travayle; and his account was later followed by Hakluyt. [1157] The bibliography of Gomara in Sabin (vol. vii. p. 395) was compiled by Mr. Brevoort. The Carter-Brown Catalogue (vol. i. p. 169) gives a list of editions; cf. Leclerc, no. 243, etc. [1158] Bancroft (Mexico, ii. 339) gives references for tracing the Conquerors and their descendants. [1159] Mexico, ii. 146; cf. H. H. Bancroft, Early Chroniclers, p. 14. [1160] Ibid., ii. 459. [1161] Ibid., i. 473. [1162] Bancroft speaks of the account’s “exceeding completeness, its many new facts, and varied version” (Mexico, i. 697). [1163] Scherzer (in his edition of Ximenes’ Las historias del origen de los Indios de esta provincia de Guatemala, 1857) says that the text as published is very incorrect, and adds that the original manuscript is in the city library at Guatemala. Brasseur says he has seen it there. It is said to have a memorandum to show that it was finished in 1605 at Guatemala. We have no certain knowledge of Diaz’ death to confirm the impression that he could have lived to the improbable age which this implies. (Cf. Magazine of American History, i. 129, 328-329.) There are two editions of it, in different type, which have the seal of authenticity. One was dated in 1632; the other, known as the second edition, is without date, and has an additional chapter (numbered wrongly ccxxii.) concerning the portents among the Mexicans which preceded the coming of the Spaniards. It is explained that this was omitted in the first edition as not falling
  • 46. within the personal observation of Diaz. (Cf. Sabin, vol. vi. nos. 19,978, 19,979; Carter-Brown, ii. 387; Murphy, no. 790; Court, nos. 106, 107; Leclerc, no. 1,115. Rich priced it in his day at $10; it now usually brings about $30.) There are later editions of the Spanish text,—one issued at Mexico in 1794-1795, in four small volumes (Sabin, vol. vi. no. 19,980; Leclerc, no. 1,117, 40 francs); a second, Paris, 1837 (Sabin, vol. vi. no. 19,981); and another, published in 1854, in two quarto volumes, with annotations from the Cortés letters, etc. It is also contained in Vedia’s edition of the Historiadores primitivos, vol. ii. There are three German editions, one published at Hamburg in 1848, with a preface by Karl Ritter, and others bearing date at Bonn, 1838 and 1843 (Sabin, vi. no. 19,986-19,987). There are two English versions,—one by Maurice Keating, published at London in 1800 (with a large map of the Lake of Mexico), which was reprinted at Salem, Mass., in 1803 (Sabin, vol. vi. nos. 19,984-19,985). Mr. Deane points out how Keating, without any explanation, transfers from chap. xviii. and other parts of the text sundry passages to a preface. A second English translation,—Memoirs of Diaz,—by John Ingram Lockhart, was published in London in 1844 (Sabin, vol. vi. no. 19,983), and is also included in Kerr’s Voyages, vols. iii. and iv. Munsell issued an abridged English translation by Arthur Prynne at Albany in 1839 (Sabin, vol. vi. no. 19,982). The best annotated of the modern issues is a French translation by D. Jourdanet, Histoire véridique de la conquête de la Nouvelle Espagne, Paris, 1876. In the following year a second edition was issued, accompanied by a study on the human sacrifices of the Aztecs, and enriched with notes, a bibliography, and a chapter from Sahagun on the vices of the Mexicans. It also contained a modern map of Mexico, showing the marches of Cortés; the map of the valley, indicating the contraction of the lake (the same as used by Jourdanet in other works), and a reproduction of a map of the lake illustrating the operations of Cortés, which follows a map given in the Mexican edition of Clavigero. A list of the Conquistadores gives three hundred and seventy-seven names, which are distinguished apart as constituting the followers of Cortés, Camargo, Salcedo, Garay, Narvaez, and Ponçe de Leon. This list is borrowed from the Diccionario universal de historia y de geografia, ... especialmente sobre la república Mexicana, 1853-1856. (Cf. Norton’s Literary Gazette, Jan. 15, 1835, and Revue des questions historiques, xxiii. 249.) This Diccionario was published at Mexico, in 1853-1856, in ten volumes, based on a similar work printed in Spain, but augmented in respect to
  • 47. Mexican matters by various creditable collaborators, while vols. viii., ix., and x. are entirely given to Mexico, and more particularly edited by Manuel Orozco y Berra. The work is worth about 400 francs. The Cartas de Indias (Madrid, 1877) contained a few unpublished letters of Bernal Diaz. [1164] Sahagun’s study of the Aztec tongue was a productive one. Biondelli published at Milan in 1858, from a manuscript by Sahagun, an Evangelarium epistolarium et lectionarium Aztecum sive Mexicanum, ex antiquo codice Mexicano nuper reperto; and Quaritch in 1880 (Catalogue, p. 46, no. 261, etc.) advertised various other manuscripts of his Sermones in Mexicano, etc. Jourdanet in his edition (p. x.) translates the opinion of Sahagun given by his contemporary and fellow-Franciscan, Fray Geronimo Mendieta, in his Historia eclesiastica Indiana (Mexico, 1860) p. 633. There is a likeness of Sahagun in Cumplido’s edition of Prescott’s Mexico, published at Mexico in 1846, vol. iii. [1165] A part of the original manuscript of Sahagun was exhibited, says Brinton (Aboriginal American Authors, p. 27), at the Congrès des Américanistes at Madrid in 1881. [1166] Field, Indian Bibliography, no. 1,348. Stevens (Historical Collections, vol. i., no. 1,573) mentions a copy of this edition, which has notes and collations with the original manuscript made by Don J. F. Ramirez. Cf. Ticknor Catalogue, p. 316. [1167] Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 208. [1168] The book was called: La aparicion de Ntra. Señora de Guadalupe de México, comprobada con la refutation del argumento negativo que presenta Muñoz, fundandose en el testimonio del P. Fr. Bernardino Sahagun; ó sea: Historia original de este escritor, que altera la publicada en 1829 en el equivocado concepto de ser la unica y original de dicho autor. Publícala, precediendo una disertacion sobre la aparicion guadalupana, y con notas sobre la conquista de México. Cf. Ticknor Catalogue, p. 46. [1169] Spanish Conquest, ii. 346. [1170] Magazine of American History (November, 1881) p. 378. Cf. other estimates in H. H. Bancroft’s Mexico, i. 493, 696; Native Races, iii. 231-236; Early Chroniclers, pp. 19, 20. Bernal Diaz and
  • 48. Sahagun are contrasted by Jourdanet in the introduction to his edition of the latter. Cf. also Jourdanet’s edition of Bernal Diaz and the article on Sahagun by Ferdinand Denis in the Revue des Deux Mondes. [1171] Prescott’s Mexico, Kirk’s ed. ii. 38. [1172] Prescott, Mexico, iii. 214. [1173] Mr. Brevoort reviewed this edition in the Magazine of American History. [1174] Vols. x. and xvi. In one of these is the Chronica Compendiosissima of Amandus (Antwerp, 1534), which contains the letters of Peter of Ghent, or De Mura,—Recueil des pièces relatives à la Conquête du Mexique, pp. 193-203. Cf. Sabin, vol. i. no. 994. [1175] Vol. xi. Zurita is also given in Spanish in the Coleccion de documentos inéditos, vol. ii. (1865), but less perfectly than in Ternaux. The document was written about 1560. [1176] Vols. viii., xii., xiii. [1177] Field, Indian Bibliography, nos. 1540-1541. [1178] Ibid., no. 767. [1179] Ibid., no. 766; Sabin, vol. ix. p. 168. Cf. Brinton, Aboriginal American Authors, p. 15. [1180] Prescott, Mexico, vol. i. pp. 163, 174, 206, 207; vol. iii. p. 105; and H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, vol. i. pp. 339, 697; vol. ii. p. 24; Kingsborough, vol. ix. [1181] Brinton, Aboriginal American Literature, p. 24. [1182] Icazbalceta, in his Apuntes para un Catálogo de Escritores en lenguas indigenas de America (Mexico, 1866), gives a summary of the native literature preserved to us. Cf. Brinton’s Aboriginal American Authors, p. 14, etc., on natives who acquired reputation as writers of Spanish. [1183] Vol. i. p. lxxiv; and on p. lxxviii he gives accounts of various manuscripts, chiefly copies, owned by himself. He also traces the
  • 49. rise of his interest in American studies, while official position in later years gave him unusual facilities for research. His conclusions and arguments are often questioned by careful students. Cf. Bandelier, in Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880, p. 93. [1184] In the introduction to this volume Brasseur reviews the native writers on the Conquest. Bancroft (Mexico, vol. i. p. 493, vol. ii. p. 488) thinks he hardly does Cortés justice, and is prone to accept without discrimination the native accounts, to the discredit of those of the conquerors. Brasseur gives abundant references; and since the publication of the Pinart-Brasseur Catalogue, we have a compact enumeration of his own library. [1185] He enumerates a few of the treasures, vol. i. p. lxxvi. [1186] The list is not found in all copies. Murphy Catalogue, p. 300. F. S. Ellis (London, 1884) prices a copy at £2 2s. [1187] Born at Puebla 1710; died 1780. [1188] Published in three volumes in Mexico in 1836. Edited by C. F. Ortega. Cf. Prescott, Mexico, book i. chap. i. Veytia also edited from Boturini’s collection, and published with notes at Mexico in 1826, Tezcuco en los ultimos tiempos de sus antiguos reyes (Murphy Catalogue, no. 428). [1189] Aboriginal American Authors, p. 26, where are notices of other manuscripts on Tlaxcalan history. [1190] Cf. Nouvelles Annales des Voyages (1845), vol. ii. p. 129, etc. [1191] Prescott, Mexico, vol. ii. p. 286; Bancroft, Mexico, vol. i. p. 200. [1192] Pinart-Brasseur Catalogue, no. 237. [1193] Brinton’s Aboriginal American Authors, p. 26. Mr. A. F. Bandelier is said to be preparing an edition of it. [1194] Cf. Nouvelles Annales des Voyages, 1844-1849. Ternaux’s translation is much questioned. Cf. also Kingsborough, vol. ix., and the Biblioteca Mexicana of Vigel, with notes by Orozco y Berra.
  • 50. [1195] Aboriginal American Authors, p. 28. [1196] Bancroft, Central America, vol. i. p. 686. Bandelier has given a partial list of the authorities on the conquest of Guatemala in the Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880; and Bancroft (Central America, vol. i. p. 703, vol. ii. p. 736) characterizes the principal sources. Helps (end of book xv. of his Spanish Conquest) complained of the difficulty in getting information of the Guatemala affairs; but Bancroft makes use of all the varied published collections of documents on Spanish-American history, which contain so much on Guatemala; and to his hands, fortunately, came also all the papers of the late E. G. Squier. A Coleccion de Documentos Antiguos de Guatemala, published in 1857, has been mentioned elsewhere, as well as the Proceso against Alvarado, so rich in helpful material. The general historians must all be put under requisition in studying this theme,—Oviedo, Gomara, Diaz, Las Casas, Ixtlilxochitl, and Herrera, not to name others. Antonio de Remesal’s is the oldest of the special works, and was written on the spot. His Historia de Chyapa is a Dominican’s view; and being a partisan, he needs more or less to be confirmed. A Franciscan friar, Francisco Vasquez, published a Chronica de la Provincia del Santissimo Nombre de Jesus de Guatemala in 1714, a promised second volume never appearing. He magnified the petty doings of his brother friars; but enough of historical interest crept into his book, together with citations from records no longer existing, to make it valuable. He tilts against Remesal, while he constantly uses his book; and the antagonism of the Franciscans and Dominicans misguides him sometimes, when borrowing from his rival. He lauds the conquerors, and he suffers the charges of cruelty to be made out but in a few cases (Bancroft, Central America, vol. ii. pp. 142, 736). The Historia de Guatemala of Francisco Antonio de Fuentes y Guzman is quoted by Bancroft from a manuscript copy (Central America, vol. ii. p. 736), but it has since been printed in Madrid in 1882-1883, in two volumes, with annotations by Justo Zaragoza, as one of the series Biblioteca de los Americanistes. Bancroft thinks he has many errors and that he is far from trustworthy, wherever his partiality for the conquerors is brought into play. The chief modern historian of Guatemala is Domingo Juarros, who was born in that city in 1752, and died in 1820. His Compendio de la historia de la Ciudad de Guatemala was published there, the first volume in 1808 and the second in 1818; and both were republished in
  • 51. 1857. It was published in English in London in 1823, with omissions and inaccuracies,—according to Bancroft. The story of the Conquest is told in the second volume. Except so far as he followed Fuentes, in his partiality for the conquerors, Juarros’ treatment of his subject is fair; and his industry and facilities make him learned in its details. Bancroft (Central America, vol. ii. pp. 142, 737) remarks on his omission to mention the letters of Alvarado, and doubts, accordingly, if Juarros could have known of them. Of the despatches which Alvarado sent to Cortés, we know only two. Bandelier (American Antiquarian Society’s Proceedings, October, 1880) says that Squier had copies of them all; but Bancroft (Central America, vol. i. p. 666), who says he has all of Squier’s papers, makes no mention of any beyond the two,—of April 11 and July 28, 1524,—which are in print in connection with Cortés’ fourth letter, in Ramusio’s version, except such as are of late date (1534-1541), of which he has copies, as his list shows (Cf. also Ternaux, vol. x., and Barcia, vol. i. p. 157). Ternaux is said to have translated from Ramusio. Oviedo uses them largely, word for word. Herrera is supposed to have used a manuscript History of the Conquest of Guatemala by Gonzalo de Alvarado. [1197] Prescott, Mexico, vol. ii. p. 165. [1198] A copy is in the Force Collection, Library of Congress, and another in Mr. Bancroft’s, from whose Mexico, vol. i. p. 461, we gather some of these statements. [1199] Cf. Backer, Bibliothèque des écrivains de la Compagnie de Jésus; Markham’s introduction to his edition of Acosta in the Hakluyt Society’s publications. [1200] The original edition of the De natura is scarce. Rich priced it at £1 1s. fifty years ago; Leclerc, no. 2,639, at 150 francs (cf. also Carter-Brown, i. 379; Sabin, i. 111,—for a full account of successive editions; Sunderland, i. 23). It was reprinted at Salamanca in 1595, and at Cologne in 1596. The latter edition can usually be bought for $3 or $4. Cf. Field, no. 9; Stevens, Bibliotheca Historica, no. 9; Murphy, no. 11, etc. [1201] Rich priced it in 1832 at £1 10s.; ordinary copies are now worth about £2 or £3, but fine copies in superior binding have reached £12 12s. (Cf. Leclerc, no. 5—200 francs; Sunderland, i.
  • 52. 24; J. A. Allen, Bibliography of Cetacea, p. 24,—where this and other early books on America are recorded with the utmost care.) Other Spanish editions are Helmstadt, 1590 (Bartlett); Seville, 1591 (Brunet, Backer); Barcelona, 1591 (Carter-Brown, i. 478; Leclerc, no. 7); Madrid, 1608 (Carter-Brown, ii, 61; Leclerc, no. 8) and 1610 (Sabin); Lyons, 1670; and Madrid, 1792, called the best edition, with a notice of Acosta. The French editions followed rapidly: Paris, by R. Regnault, 1597 (Brunet, Markham); 1598 (Leclerc, no. 10—100 francs; Dufossé, 125 francs, 140 francs, 160 francs); 1600 (Leclerc, no. 11; Bishop Huet’s copy in the Bibliothèque Nationale at Paris has notes which are printed by Camus in his book on De Bry); 1606 (Leclerc, nos. 12, 13); 1616 (Carter-Brown, ii. 177; Leclerc, no. 2,639—50 francs); 1617 (Leclerc, no. 14); 1619 (Sabin); 1621 (Rich). An Italian version, made by Gallucci, was printed at Venice in 1596 (Leclerc, no. 15). There were more liberties taken with it in German. It was called Geographische und historische Beschreibung der America, when printed at Cologne in 1598, with thirty maps, as detailed in the Carter-Brown Catalogue, i. 520. Antonio (Biblioteca Hispana Nova) gives the date 1599. At Cologne again in 1600 it is called New Welt (Carter-Brown, i. 548), and at Wesel, in 1605, America oder West India, which is partly the same as the preceding (Carter-Brown, ii. 31). Antonio gives an edition in 1617. The Dutch translation, following the 1591 Seville edition, was made by Linschoten, and printed at Haarlem in 1598 (Leclerc, no. 16); and again, with woodcuts, in 1624 (Carter-Brown, ii. 287; Murphy, no. 9). It is also in Vander Aa’s collection, 1727. It was from the Dutch version that it was turned (by Gothard Arthus for De Bry in his Great Voyages, part ix.) into German, in 1601; and into Latin, in 1602 and 1603. The first English translation did not appear till 1604, at London, as The naturall and morall historie of the East und West Indies. Intreating of the remarkable things of Heaven, of the Elements, Mettalls, Plants, and Beasts which are proper to that Country; Together with the Manners, Ceremonies, Lawes, Governements, and Warres of the Indians. Written in Spanish by Ioseph Acosta, and translated into English by E[dward] G[rimston]. Rich priced it fifty years ago at £1 16s.; it is usually priced now at from four to eight guineas (cf. Carter-Brown, ii. 21; Field, no. 8; Menzies, no. 4; Murphy, no. 8). It was reprinted,
  • 53. with corrections of the version, and edited by C. R. Markham for the Hakluyt Society in 1880. [1202] This is extremely rare. Quaritch, who said in 1879 that only three copies had turned up in London in thirty years, prices an imperfect copy at £5. (Catalogue, no. 326 sub. no. 17,635.) It is worth while to note how events in the New World, during the early part of the sixteenth century, were considered in their relation to European history. Cf. for instance, Ulloa’s Vita dell’imperator Carlo V. (Rome, 1562), and such chronicles as the Anales de Aragon, first and second parts. Harrisse (Bibl. Amer. Vet. and Additions), and the Carter-Brown Catalogue (vol. i.) will lead the student to this examination, in their enumeration of books only incidentally connected with America. To take but a few as representative: Maffeius, Commentariorum urbanorum libri, Basle, 1530, with its chapter on “loca nuper reperta.” (Harrisse, Additions, no. 93; edition of 1544, Bibl. Amer. Vet. no. 257, and Additions, no. 146. Fabricius cites an edition as early as 1526.) Laurentius Frisius, Der Cartha Marina, Strasburg, 1530. (Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 151; Additions, no. 90.) Gemma Phrysius, De Principiis Astronomiæ et Cosmographicæ, with its cap. xxix., “De insulis nuper inventis.” (Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 92.) There are later editions in 1544 (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 252), 1548; also Paris, in French, 1557, etc. Sebastian Franck, Weltbuch, Tübingen, 1533-1534, in which popular book of its day a separate chapter is given to America. The book in this first edition is rare, and is sometimes dated 1533, and again 1534. (Cf. Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., nos. 174, 197; Sabin, vi. 570; Carter-Brown, i. 111; Muller, 1877, no. 1,151; H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, i. 250.) There was another edition in 1542 (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 238; Stevens, Bbliotheca Historica, no. 738), and later in Dutch and German, in 1558, 1567, 1595, etc. (Leclerc, nos. 212, 217, etc.). George Rithaymer, De orbis terrarum, Nuremberg, 1538, with its “De terris et insulis nuper repertis” (Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 119). Achilles P. Gassarum, Historiarum et chronicarum mundi epitomes libellus, Venice, 1538, with its “insulæ in oceano antiquioribus ignotæ.” Ocampo, Chronica general de España, 1543, who, in mentioning the discovery of the New World, forgets to name
  • 54. Columbus (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 242; Sabin, vol. xiii.). Guillaume Postel, De orbis terræ concordia, Basle, about 1544 (Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 145). John Dryander, Cosmographiæ introductio, 1544 (Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 147). Biondo, De ventis et navigatione, Venice, 1546, with cap. xxv. on the New World (Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 274). Professor J. R. Seeley, in his Expansion of England (p. 78), has pointed out how events in the New World did not begin to react upon European politics, till the attacks of Drake and the English upon the Spanish West Indies instigated the Spanish Armada, and made territorial aggrandizement in the New World as much a force in the conduct of politics in Europe as the Reformation had been. The power of the great religious revolution gradually declined before the increasing commercial interests arising out of trade with the New World. [1203] Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 667. He died in 1604. [1204] Sabin, vol. xii. no. 47,812. Icazbalceta showed Torquemada’s debt to Mendieta by collations. (Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 668.) No author later than Torquemada cites it. Barcia was not able to find it, and it was considered as hopelessly lost. In 1860 its editor was informed that the manuscript had been found among the papers left by D. Bartolomé José Gallardo. Later it was purchased by D. José M. Andrade, and given to Icazbalceta, at whose expense it has been published (Boston Public Library Catalogue). [1205] Carter-Brown, ii. 176; Sunderland, vol. v. no. 12,536. Some of the bibliographies give the date 1613, and the place Seville. Cf. further on Torquemada, Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 786; Early American Chroniclers, p. 23; Prescott, Mexico, i. 53. [1206] Carter-Brown, iii. 339; Leclerc, no. 370; Field, no. 1,557; Court, no. 354. It is in three volumes. Kingsborough in his eighth volume gives some extracts from Torquemada. [1207] Baptista published various devotional treatises in both Spanish and Mexican, some of which, like his Compassionario of 1599, are extremely rare. Cf. Leclerc, no. 2,306; Quaritch, The Ramirez Collection, 1880, nos. 25, 26.
  • 55. [1208] Again in four volumes, Mexico, 1870-1871. Cf. Bancroft, Mexico, iii. 507. [1209] Carter-Brown, vol. ii. no. 1,300. [1210] Mexico, i. 187. [1211] Spanish Literature, vol. iii. no. 196. [1212] Cf., for accounts and estimates, Ticknor, Spanish Literature, vol. iii. no. 196; Prescott, Mexico, vol. iii. p. 208; Bancroft, Mexico, vol. i. pp. 186, 697; Early Chroniclers, p. 22. Editions of Solis became, in time, numerous in various languages. Most of them may be found noted in the following list:— In Spanish. Barcelona, 1691, accompanied by a Life of Solis, by Don Juan de Goyeneche, Madrid, 1704, a good edition; Brussels, 1704, with numerous plates; Madrid, 1732, two columns, without plates; Brussels, 1741, with Goyeneche’s Life; Madrid, 1748, said to have been corrected by the author’s manuscript; Barcelona, 1756; Madrid, 1758; Madrid, 1763; Barcelona, 1771; Madrid, 1776; Madrid, 1780; Madrid, 1783- 1784,—a beautiful edition, called by Stirling “the triumph of the press of Sancha” (cf. Ticknor Catalogue, p. 335; Carter-Brown, vol. ii. no. 1,300); Barcelona, 1789; Madrid, 1791, 1798, 1819, 1822; Paris, 1827; Madrid, 1828, 1829, 1838; Barcelona, 1840; Paris, 1858, with notes. Sabin (vol. iv. nos. 16,944-16,945) gives abridged editions,—Barcelona, 1846, and Mexico, 1853. An edition, London, 1809, is “Corregida por Augustin Luis Josse,” and is included in the Biblioteca de autores españoles, in 1853. In French. The earliest translation was made by Bon André de Citri et de la Guette, and appeared with two different imprints in Paris in 1691 in quarto (Carter-Brown, vol. ii. 1427-1428). Other editions followed,—La Haye, 1692, in 12mo; Paris, 1704, with folding map and engravings reduced from the Spanish editions; Paris, 1714, with plates; Paris, 1730, 1759, 1774, 1777, 1844, etc.; and a new version by Philippe de Toulza, with annotations, published in Paris in 1868. In Italian. The early version was published at Florence in 1699, with portraits of Solis, Cortés, and Montezuma (Carter-Brown, vol. ii. no. 1,577). An edition at Venice in 1704 is without plates; but another, in 1715, is embellished. There was another at Venice in 1733. In Danish. Copenhagen, 1747 (Carter-Brown, vol. iii. no. 859).
  • 56. In English. Thomas Townsend’s English version was published in London in 1724, and was reissued, revised by R. Hooke in 1753, both having a portrait of Cortés, by Vertue, copied “after a head by Titian,” with other folding plates based on those of the Spanish editions (Carter-Brown, vol. iii. nos. 350, 588; Field, Indian Bibliography, nos. 1,464, 1,465). There were later editions in 1753. It was when he was twenty-eight years old, that Prescott took his first lesson in Spanish history in reading Solis, at Ticknor’s recommendation. [1213] The story as the English had had it up to this time—except so far as they learned it in translations of Solis—may be found in Burke’s European Settlements in America, 1765, part i. pp. 1-166. [1214] Sabin, vol. iv. no. 13,518. It was written in Spanish, but translated into Italian for publication. A Spanish version, Historia Antigua de Mégico, made by Joaquin de Mora, was printed in London in 1826, and reprinted in Mexico in 1844 (Leclerc, nos. 1,103, 1,104, 2,712). A German translation, Geschichte von Mexico, was issued at Leipsic in 1789-1790, with notes. This version is not made from the original Italian, but from an English translation printed in London in 1787 as The History of Mexico, translated by Charles Cullen. It was reprinted in London in 1807, and in Philadelphia in 1817 (Field, Indian Bibliography, p. 326). [1215] Early American Chronicles, p. 24. [1216] Bancroft, Mexico, i. 697; also Prescott, Mexico, i. 53. [1217] Bancroft, Mexico, i. 700; Leclerc, no. 846. [1218] Bibliotheca Historica, no. 377. [1219] There is a portrait of Clavigero in Cumplido’s edition of Prescott’s Mexico (1846), vol. iii. [1220] Voyageurs, iii. 422. [1221] Mr. H. H. Bancroft (Mexico, vol. i, p. 7, note), however, charges his predecessor with parading his acquisition of this then unprinted material, and with neglecting the more trustworthy and more accessible chroniclers. He also speaks (Mexico, i. 701) of an amiable weakness in Prescott which sacrificed truth to effect, and
  • 57. to a style which he calls “magnificent,” and to a “philosophic flow of thought,”—the latter trait in Prescott being one of his weakest; nor is his style what rhetoricians would call “magnificent.” [1222] Mr. R. A. Wilson makes more of it than is warranted, in affirming that “Prescott’s inability to make a personal research” deprives us of the advantage of his integrity and personal character (New Conquest of Mexico, p. 312). [1223] Ticknor’s Prescott, quarto edition, pp. 167-172. [1224] It was soon afterward reprinted in London and in Paris. [1225] Cf. the collation of criticisms on the Mexico, given by Allibone in his Dictionary of Authors, and by Poole in his Index to Periodical Literature. Archbishop Spalding, in his Miscellanea, chapters xiii. and xiv., gives the Catholic view of his labors; and Ticknor, in his Life of Prescott, prints various letters from Hallam, Sismondi, and others, giving their prompt expressions regarding the book. In chapters xiii., xiv., and xv. of this book the reader may trace Prescott through the progress of the work, not so satisfactorily as one might wish however, for in his diaries and letters the historian failed often to give the engaging qualities of his own character. It is said that Carlyle, when applied to for letters of Prescott which might be used by Ticknor in his Life of the historian, somewhat rudely replied that he had never received any from Prescott worth preserving. Prescott’s library is, unfortunately, scattered. He gave some part of it to Harvard College, including such manuscripts as he had used in his Ferdinand and Isabella; and some years after his death a large part of it was sold at public auction. It was then found that, with a freedom which caused some observation, the marks of his ownership had been removed from his books. Many of his manuscripts and his noctograph were then sold, perhaps through inadvertence, for the family subsequently reclaimed what they could. The noctograph and some of the manuscripts are now in the cabinet of the Massachusetts Historical Society (cf. Proceedings, vol. xiii. p. 66), and other manuscripts are in the Boston Public Library (Bulletin of Boston Public Library, iv. 122). A long letter to Dr. George E. Ellis, written in 1857, and describing his use of the noctograph, is in the same volume (Proceedings, vol. xiii. p. 246). The estimate in which Prescott was held by his associates of that Society may be seen in the records of the
  • 58. meeting at which his death was commemorated, in 1859 (Proceedings, iv. 167, 266). There is a eulogy of Prescott by George Bancroft in the Historical Magazine, iii. 69. Cf. references in Poole’s Index, p. 1047. [1226] Philadelphia and London, 1859. [1227] This correspondence was civil, to say the least. Bancroft (Mexico, i. 205), with a rudeness of his own, calls Wilson “a fool and a knave.” [1228] American Ethnological Society Transactions, vol. i. [1229] Also in Boston Daily Courier, May 3, 1859. Cf. Mass. Hist. Soc. Proc. v. 101; Atlantic Monthly, April and May, 1859, by John Foster Kirk; Allibone’s Dictionary, vol. ii. p. 1669. L. A. Wilmer, in his Life of De Soto (1859) is another who accuses Prescott of accepting exaggerated statements. Cf. J. D. Washburn on the failure of Wilson’s arguments to convince, in Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October 21, 1879, p. 18. [1230] Edition of 1874, ii. 110. [1231] Page 147. [1232] Born about 1817, and knighted in 1872. [1233] Indian Bibliography, no. 682. [1234] Cf. H. H. Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 488. [1235] Cf. Revue des deux mondes, 1845, vol. xi. p. 197. The book was later translated into English. He also published in 1863 and in 1864 Le Mexique ancien et moderne, which was also given in an English translation in London in 1864. Cf. British Quarterly Review, xl. 360. [1236] Ruge, in his Geschichte des Zeitalters der Entdeckungen, tells the story with the latest knowledge. [1237] Both books command good prices, ranging from $25 to $50 each. [1238] Mexico, i. 697; ii. 788,—where he speaks of N. de Zamacois’ Historia de Méjico, Barcelona, 1877-1880, in eleven volumes, as
  • 59. “blundering;” and Mora’s Méjico y sus Revoluciones, Paris, 1836, in three volumes, as “hasty.” Bancroft’s conclusion regarding what Mexico itself has contributed to the history of the Conquest is “that no complete account of real value has been written.” Andrés Cavo’s Tres siglos de México (Mexico, 1836-1838, in three volumes) is but scant on the period of the Conquest (Bancroft, Mexico, iii. 508). It was reprinted in 1852, with notes and additions by Bustamante, and as part of the Biblioteca Nacional y Extranjera, and again at Jalapa in 1860. [1239] Vol. ii. chaps. xxi. and xxx., p. 648. [1240] Mexico, ii. 455-456. [1241] Carter-Brown, vol. ii. no. 1,350. [1242] Rich, 1832, no. 422; Bancroft, Mexico, ii. 650. It was reprinted at Mérida in 1842, and again in 1867. [1243] Leclerc, nos. 1,172, 2,289. Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880, p. 85, where will be found Bandelier’s partial bibliography of Yucatan. [1244] Cf. Field. 1605; Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880, p. 89. The book is not so rare as it is sometimes claimed; Quaritch usually prices copies at from £2 to £5. [1245] Field, p. 522. [1246] The Registro Yucateco, a periodical devoted to local historical study, and published in Mérida, only lived for two years, 1845-1846. [1247] Cf. Sabin, vol. ii. no. 6,834, and references. There is a copy of Boturini Benaduci in Harvard College Library. A portrait of him is given in Cumplido’s edition of Prescott’s Mexico, vol. iii. [1248] It is rare. Quaritch in 1880 priced Ramirez’ copy at £12. It was printed, “Mexici in Ædibus Authoris.” [1249] Trübner, Bibliographical Guide, p. xiii. [1250] It contained nearly fourteen hundred entries about Mexico, or its press. Another collection, gathered by a gentleman attached to Maximilian’s court, was sold in Paris in 1868; and still
  • 60. another, partly the accumulation of Père Augustin Fischer, the confessor of Maximilian, was dispersed in London in 1869 as a Biblioteca Mejicana. Cf. Jackson’s Bibliographies Géographiques, p. 223. [1251] Many of these afterwards appeared in B. Quaritch’s Rough List, no. 46, 1880. The principal part of a sale which included the libraries of Pinart and Brasseur de Bourbourg (January and February, 1884) also pertained to Mexico and the Spanish possessions. [1252] Cf. for instance his Native Races, iv. 565; Central America, i. 195; Mexico, i. 694, ii. 487, 784; Early Chroniclers, p. 19, etc. It is understood that his habit has been to employ readers to excerpt and abstract from books, and make references. These slips are put in paper bags according to topic. Such of these memoranda as are not worked into the notes of the pertinent chapter are usually massed in a concluding note. [1253] The general bibliographies of American history are examined in a separate section of the present work and elsewhere in the present chapter something has been said of the bibliographical side of various other phases of the Mexican theme. Mr. A. F. Bandelier has given a partial bibliography of Yucatan and Central America, touching Mexico, however, only incidentally, in the Amer. Antiq. Soc. Proc., October, 1880. Harrisse, in his Bibl. Amer. Vet., p. 212, has given a partial list of the poems and plays founded upon the Conquest. Others will be found in the Chronological List of Historical Fiction published by the Boston Public Library. Among the poems are Gabriel Lasso de la Vega’s Cortés Valeroso, 1588, republished as Mexicana in 1594 (Maisonneuve, no. 2,825 —200 francs); Saavedra Guzman’s El Peregrino indiano, Madrid, 1599 (Rich, 1832, no. 86, £4 4s.); Balbuena’s El Bernardo, a conglomerate heroic poem (Madrid, 1624), which gives one book to the Conquest by Cortés (Leclerc, no. 48—100 francs); Boesnier’s Le Mexique Conquis, Paris, 1752; Escoiquiz, México Conquistada, 1798; Roux de Rochelle, Ferdinand Cortez; P. du Roure, La Conquête du Mexique. Among the plays,—Dryden’s Indian Emperor (Cortés and Montezuma); Lope de Vega’s Marquez del Valle; Fernand de Zarate’s Conquista de México; Canizares, El Pleyto de Fernan Cortes; F. del Rey, Hernand Cortez en Tabasco; Piron, Cortes; Malcolm MacDonald, Guatemozin (Philadelphia, 1878), etc.
  • 61. [1254] Dr. Kohl’s studies on the course of geographical discovery along the Pacific coast were never published. He printed an abstract in the United States Coast Survey Report, 1855, pp. 374, 375. A manuscript memoir by him on the subject is in the library of the American Antiquarian Society (Proceedings, 23 Apr. 1872, pp. 7, 26) at Worcester. So great advances in this field have since been made that it probably never will be printed. There is a chronological statement of explorations up the Pacific coast in Duflot de Mofras’ Exploration du territoire de l’Orégon (Paris, 1844), vol. i. chap. iv.; but H. H. Bancroft’s Pacific States, particularly his Northwest Coast, vol. i., embodies the fullest information on this subject. In the enumeration of maps in the present paper, many omissions are made purposely, and some doubtless from want of knowledge. It is intended only to give a sufficient number to mark the varying progress of geographical ideas. [1255] See ante, pp. 106, 115. [1256] Cf. maps ante, on pp. 108, 112, 114, 127. [1257] This map is preserved in the Royal Library at Munich, and is portrayed in Kunstmann’s Atlas, pl. iv., and in Stevens’s Notes, pl. v. Cf. Kohl, Discovery of Maine (for a part), no. 10; and Harrisse’s Cabots, p. 167. [1258] Harrisse, Bibl. Amer. Vet., no. 131. [1259] A sketch of the map is given by Lelewel, pl. xlvi. [1260] The Novus Orbis (Paris) has sometimes another map; but Harrisse says the Finæus one is the proper one. Bibl. Amer. Vet., nos. 172, 173. [1261] Vol. III. p. 11. This reduction, there made from Stevens’s Notes, pl. iv., is copied on a reduced scale in Bancroft’s Central America, vol. i. p. 149. Stevens also gives a fac-simile of the original, and a greatly reduced reproduction is given in Daly’s Early Cartography. Its names, as Harrisse has pointed out (Cabots, p. 182), are similar to the two Weimar charts of 1527 and 1529. The bibliography of this Paris Grynæus is examined elsewhere. [1262] Bibl. Amer. Vet., Additions, no. 127.
  • 62. [1263] Brit. Mus. Cat. of Maps, 1844, p. 22. [1264] Vol. for 1877, p. 359. Cf. the present History, Vol. I. p. 214; IV. 81. [1265] See Vol. III. p. 18. [1266] Epilogue, p. 219. [1267] This edition was in small octavo, with sixty maps, engraved on metal, of which there are seven of interest to students of American cartography. They are of South America (no. 54), New Spain (no. 55), “Terra nova Bacalaos” or Florida to Labrador (no. 56), Cuba (no. 57), and Hispaniola (no. 58). The copies in America which have fallen under the Editor’s observation are those in the Library of Congress, in the Astor and Carter-Brown libraries, and in the collections of Mr. Barlow and Mr. Kalbfleisch in New York, and of Prof. Jules Marcou in Cambridge. There was one in the Murphy Collection, no. 2,067. It is worth from $15 to $25. Cf. on Gastaldi’s maps, Zurla’s Marco Polo ii. 368; the Notizie di Jacopo Gastaldi, Torino, 1881; Castellani’s Catalogo delle più rare opere geografiche, Rome, 1876, and other references in Winsor’s Bibliography of Ptolemy, sub anno 1548; and Vol. IV. p. 40 of the present History. [1268] This edition is in small quarto and contains six American maps: no. 1, “Orbis Descriptio;” no. 2, “Carta Marina;” no. 3, a reproduction of the Zeni map; no. 4, “Schonlandia” (Greenland region, etc.); no. 5, South America; no. 6, New Spain; no. 7, “Tierra nueva,” or eastern coast of North America; no. 8, Brazil; no. 9, Cuba; no. 10, Hispaniola. These maps were repeated in the 1562, 1564, and 1574 editions of Ptolemy. The copies in America of these editions known to the Editor are in the following libraries: Library of Congress, 1561, 1562, 1574; Boston Public Library, 1561; Harvard College Library, 1562; Carter-Brown Library, 1561, 1562,
  • 63. 1564, 1574; Philadelphia Library, 1574; Astor Library, 1574; S. L. M. Barlow’s, 1562, 1564; James Carson Brevoort’s, 1562; J. Hammond Trumbull’s, 1561; Trinity College (Hartford), 1574; C. C. Baldwin’s (Cleveland) 1561; Murphy Catalogue, 1561, 1562, 1574,—the last two bought by President A. D. White of Cornell University. These editions of Ptolemy’s Geographica are described, and their American maps compared with the works of other contemporary cartographers, in Winsor’s Bibliog. of Ptolemy’s Geography (1884). [1269] Jahresbericht des Vereins für Erdkunde in Dresden, 1870, pages 62; plates vi., vii., ix. [1270] These and other maps of the Palazzo are noted in Studi biografici e bibliografici della società geografica italiana, Rome, 1882, ii. 169, 172. [1271] Carter-Brown Catalogue, i. 209; Leclerc, Bibliotheca Americana, no. 240; Murphy Catalogue, no. 1,047. The map is very rare. Henry Stevens published a fac-simile made by Harris. This and a fac-simile of the title of the book are annexed. Cf. Orozco y Berra, Cartografia Mexicana, 37. [1272] Sabin, Dictionary of books relating to America, vii. 27,504; Stevens, Historical Collections, i. 2,413 (books sold in London, July, 1881). The Harvard College copy lacks the map. Mr. Brevoort’s copy has the map, and that gentleman thinks it belongs to this edition as well as to the other. [1273] The Catalogue of the British Museum puts under 1562 a map by Furlani called Univerales Descrittione di tutta la Terra cognosciuta da Paulo di Forlani. A “carta nautica” of the same cartographer, now in the Bibliothèque Nationale at Paris, is figured in Santarem’s Atlas. (Cf. Bulletin de la Société de Géographie, 1839; and Studi biografici e bibliografici, ii. p. 142). Thomassy in his Papes géographes, p. 118, mentions a Furlani (engraved) map of 1565, published at Venice, and says it closely resembles the Gastaldi type. Another, of 1570, is contained in Lafreri’s Tavole moderne di geografia, Rome and Venice, 1554- 1572 (cf. Manno and Promis, Notizie di Gastaldi, 1881, p. 19; Harrisse, Cabots, p. 237). Furlani, in 1574, as we shall see, had dissevered America and Asia. As to Diego Hermano, cf. Willes’ History of Trauvayle (London, 1577) fol. 232, verso.
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