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Risk Management Methodology
Basic IT Governance
Phase I
DRAFT VER 1.0
Octobar 2015
2
1 Risk Assessment Methodology
Agenda
Risk Management Methodology
Risk Management Consist of Two Part
I(TS)2 Risk Management based on
ISO/IEC 27001:2005 Standard and Guidelines for
information security
Risk
Assessment
Risk
Mitigation
4
Risk Management Methodology
Risk Assessment Methodology
ASSET
Classification of Assets
Assets will be classified into four main categories
6
Assets Categories
Category Groups Examples
Hardware
Computer Hardware
Servers, Desktops, Laptops, Storage
the end of that period.
Computer Peripheral Printers, Scanners, Shredders
Electronic Device
Computer protection equipment (theft protection equipment etc. )
Electric Device (Shredders, UPS, Power Stabilizer )
Telecom Device (Phones, Faxes ,PDA’s, Smart Phones
Networking Devices Routers, Hubs, Switches
Software
Commercialized Software
Core processing applications, Desktop and workstation office
productivity software, Operating system, Network Devices OSI,
Back office and environmental software (database engines, back-
up and storage management software)
Internally Developed Software Financial Application, Personnel Application
Information
Physical Information Asset
Documents Hard Copies (Policies, Procedures), DVDs, CDs,
Backup tape
Electronic Information Asset
Documents Soft Copies (Policies, Procedures), Databases,
Configuration files, Passwords file, Audit logs
People
Internal Resources Security Admin, Network Admin, System Admin, Operator
External Resources
Third Party, Vendors Engineers,
Consultants.
Risk Assessment Methodology
ASSET
Assets Valuation
Integrity AvailabilityConfidentiality
8
Level Value Criteria
Very High 5
Strictly
Confidential
High 4 Confidential
Medium 3 Internal
Low 2 Private
Very Low 1 Public
Confidentiality Scales
Description
Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential
information could result in Extremely High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long term
loss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the
organization.
Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential
information could result in a High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of
public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the
organization.
Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential
information could result in Serious, Gradual and/or Long termloss of public
confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization.
Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential
information could result in Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment,
financial or Non Major legal action against the organization.
Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential
information could result in Non Serious, Gradual and/or Short term
embarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization.
9
Level Value Criteria
Very High 5
Strictly
Confidential
High 4 Confidential
Medium 3 Internal
Low 2 Private
Very Low 1 Public
Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or
accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will
leadto Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment, financial or Non Major
legal action against the organization.
Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or
accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will
lead to Non Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment, financial or Non
Major legal action against the organization.
Integrity Scales
Description
Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or
accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will
leadto Extremely High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of public
confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization.
Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or
accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will
leadt to High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of public confidence,
embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization.
Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or
accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will
leadto Serious, Gradual and/or Long termloss of public confidence,
embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization.
10
Level Value
Very High 5
High 4
Medium 3
Low 2
Very Low 1
Availability Scales
Description
Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or
Equal to 4 hours will have an Extremely High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long term
loss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the
organization.
Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or
Equal to 10 hours will have an High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of
public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization.
Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or
Equal to 48 hours will have a Serious, Gradual and/or Long termloss of public
confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization.
Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or
Equal to 5 days will have an Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment,
financial or Non Major legal action against the organization.
Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or
Equal to 7 days will have an Non Serious, Gradual and/or Short term
embarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization.
Asset Values
11
Level Value
Very High 5
High 4
Medium 3
Low 2
Very Low 1
The asset has a very low financial, technical, or legal value and its’ compromise will
not have a any negative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal
consequence on the organization.
Description
The asset has extremely high financial or technical, or legal value and it’s
compromise will have very serious and/or long termnegative reputation, financial,
operational, marketing or legal consequences on the organization with an adverse
effect on its critical business processes.
The asset has high financial or technical, or legal value and it’s compromise will
have serious and/or long termnegative reputation, financial, operational, marketing
or legal consequences on the organization with an adverse effect on its critical
business processes.
The asset has moderate financial, technical, or legal value and its’ compromise will
have a noticeable negative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal
consequence on the organization with a low effect on its critical business
processes.
The asset has low financial, technical, or legal value and its’ compromise will not
have a significant negative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal
consequence on the organization.
Risk Assessment Methodology
ASSET
Assets Valuation
Asset Value
Integrity AvailabilityConfidentiality
13
C I A
Asset
Value
Level
1 5 1 5 Very High
3 1 4 4 High
3 2 1 3 Medium
2 2 1 2 Low
1 1 1 1 Very Low
Risk Assessment Methodology
Asset Valuation is based on qualitative approach and the
value is described in terms of Very High, High,
Medium, Low and Very low impacts.
Risk Assessment Methodology
Threats and Vulnerabilities Identification
VulnerabilityASSET
Probability Impact
Zero Controls
Vulnerability
Level
Vulnerability
Threat
Threat
Level
Threats and Vulnerabilities Valuation
15
Level Value
Very High 5
High 4
Medium 3
Low 2
Very Low 1
1- Threat source is neither motivated nor capable
2- Very low likelihood of occurrence
Threats Scales
Description
1- Threats that affects Company’s reputation (Industrial Espionage, Legal
Violations, etc)
2- Very high likelihood of occurrence
1- Deliberate Threats, Any occurrence that has premeditated intent, for example
include a malcontent, employee shredding important documents etc.
(Unauthorized Access, Social Engineering, etc)
2- High likelihood of occurrence
1- Accidental Threats, Any occurrence that doesn’t have premeditated intent, for
examples an employee accidentally deleting an important file, failed backup etc.
(User Operational Errors)
2- Natural Threats and Environmental Threats (Earthquake, lightening, High
temperature, etc)
3- Medium likelihood of occurrence
1- Natural Threats and Environmental Threats (Earthquake, lightening, High
temperature, etc)
2- Low likelihood of occurrence
16
Level Value
Very High 5
High 4
Medium 3
Low 2
Very Low 1
The vulnerability is not considered exploitable at present.
(For example: Obsolete/age of the hardware)
Vulnerabilities Scales
Description
The vulnerability can be exploited by an unskilled attacker (e.g. script-kiddie), by
using ready-made exploits. (For example: Lack of perimeter security control IDS,
IPS, Firewall etc).
The vulnerability can be exploited by an advanced attacker via a sophisticated
attack with custom-built tools/methods. Furthermore, the attacker must be
considerably determined. (For example: Uncontrolled access to systemutilities
(Administrative privilege).
The vulnerability is considered to be exploitable by an advanced attacker, but only
under certain conditions:
• Very determined attacker
• Substantial knowledge of the internal network (For example: Inadequate
logical access controls)
The vulnerability cannot be directly exploited, but there is a possibility to be
exploited in the future (For example: Lack of physical controls.)
Risk Assessment Methodology
Calculation of Risk
= Risk Level
Asset Value
Threat
Level
Vulnerability
Level
Risk Assessment Example
18
Low
4 3 2
Asset Value Threat Value Vulnerability
ValueHigh Medium
MoR =Asset Value x Threat Value x Vulnerability Value
MoR= 4x 3x 2 = 24
MoR Mapping to Risk Level
19
Asset, Threat and Vulnerability Scale is set from
1 to 5
MoR Risk Level
1 - 20 Very Low
21 - 32 Low
33 - 50 Medium
51 - 75 High
76 - 125 Very High
MOR Mapping to Risk Level
The Risk Level Scale will be from
1 to 125
(5x5x5=125)
Acceptable Level OF Risk
20
The Acceptable Level of Risk will be
All the Risks with Value below 32
All The Risks With The Risk Level of Low and Very Low will be
Acceptable and The Risks With Values Medium, High and Very
High Need to be Treated.
Risk Mitigation Methodology
21
Risk Level
Prepare Risk
Mitigation
Options
Finish
Not
Acceptable
Acceptable
Existing
Controls
Risk Mitigation Options Criteria’s
22
Controls identified and selected in the risk mitigation options phase need to be:
Controls are Documented (Policies and Procedures)
 Policies and Procedures (Management Security Controls), are implemented to manage
and reduce the risk of loss and to protect an organization’s assets and mission.
 Management controls focus on the requirement of information protection policy, , which
are carried out through operational procedures to fulfill the organization’s goals and
missions.
Controls are Implemented
 Controls identified and selected in the risk mitigation options phase need to be
implemented and evidences of the implementation must be available.
Implemented Controls are Effective
 Based on the assurance level the existing control or suggested control can provide to
reduce or eliminate the vulnerability
Note: The effectiveness of the implemented controls will be based on Experience and/or Judgment
and will be evaluated, checked and verified continually throughout ISMS Audits
Risk Mitigation Methodology
23
Controls
Implementation
Finish
Define
Additional
Controls
Prepare Risk
Treatment
Plan
Recalculate
the Risk
Existing
Controls
Acceptable
Recalculate
the Risk
Not Acceptable
Residual
Risk
Not
Acceptable
MoR with
Existing
Controls
Prepare Risk
Mitigation
Options

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Risk Management Methodology - Copy

  • 1. Risk Management Methodology Basic IT Governance Phase I DRAFT VER 1.0 Octobar 2015
  • 2. 2 1 Risk Assessment Methodology Agenda
  • 3. Risk Management Methodology Risk Management Consist of Two Part I(TS)2 Risk Management based on ISO/IEC 27001:2005 Standard and Guidelines for information security Risk Assessment Risk Mitigation
  • 5. Risk Assessment Methodology ASSET Classification of Assets Assets will be classified into four main categories
  • 6. 6 Assets Categories Category Groups Examples Hardware Computer Hardware Servers, Desktops, Laptops, Storage the end of that period. Computer Peripheral Printers, Scanners, Shredders Electronic Device Computer protection equipment (theft protection equipment etc. ) Electric Device (Shredders, UPS, Power Stabilizer ) Telecom Device (Phones, Faxes ,PDA’s, Smart Phones Networking Devices Routers, Hubs, Switches Software Commercialized Software Core processing applications, Desktop and workstation office productivity software, Operating system, Network Devices OSI, Back office and environmental software (database engines, back- up and storage management software) Internally Developed Software Financial Application, Personnel Application Information Physical Information Asset Documents Hard Copies (Policies, Procedures), DVDs, CDs, Backup tape Electronic Information Asset Documents Soft Copies (Policies, Procedures), Databases, Configuration files, Passwords file, Audit logs People Internal Resources Security Admin, Network Admin, System Admin, Operator External Resources Third Party, Vendors Engineers, Consultants.
  • 7. Risk Assessment Methodology ASSET Assets Valuation Integrity AvailabilityConfidentiality
  • 8. 8 Level Value Criteria Very High 5 Strictly Confidential High 4 Confidential Medium 3 Internal Low 2 Private Very Low 1 Public Confidentiality Scales Description Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential information could result in Extremely High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long term loss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential information could result in a High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential information could result in Serious, Gradual and/or Long termloss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential information could result in Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization. Unauthorized, unanticipated, or unintentional disclosure of confidential information could result in Non Serious, Gradual and/or Short term embarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization.
  • 9. 9 Level Value Criteria Very High 5 Strictly Confidential High 4 Confidential Medium 3 Internal Low 2 Private Very Low 1 Public Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will leadto Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization. Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will lead to Non Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization. Integrity Scales Description Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will leadto Extremely High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will leadt to High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Unauthorized changes to the data or information systemby either intentional or accidental acts will result in inaccuracy, fraud, or erroneous decisions. That will leadto Serious, Gradual and/or Long termloss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization.
  • 10. 10 Level Value Very High 5 High 4 Medium 3 Low 2 Very Low 1 Availability Scales Description Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or Equal to 4 hours will have an Extremely High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long term loss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or Equal to 10 hours will have an High, Serious, Immediate and/or Long termloss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or Equal to 48 hours will have a Serious, Gradual and/or Long termloss of public confidence, embarrassment, financial or legal action against the organization. Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or Equal to 5 days will have an Serious, Gradual and/or Short termembarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization. Loss of data, systemfunctionality and operational effectiveness for Less than or Equal to 7 days will have an Non Serious, Gradual and/or Short term embarrassment, financial or Non Major legal action against the organization.
  • 11. Asset Values 11 Level Value Very High 5 High 4 Medium 3 Low 2 Very Low 1 The asset has a very low financial, technical, or legal value and its’ compromise will not have a any negative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal consequence on the organization. Description The asset has extremely high financial or technical, or legal value and it’s compromise will have very serious and/or long termnegative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal consequences on the organization with an adverse effect on its critical business processes. The asset has high financial or technical, or legal value and it’s compromise will have serious and/or long termnegative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal consequences on the organization with an adverse effect on its critical business processes. The asset has moderate financial, technical, or legal value and its’ compromise will have a noticeable negative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal consequence on the organization with a low effect on its critical business processes. The asset has low financial, technical, or legal value and its’ compromise will not have a significant negative reputation, financial, operational, marketing or legal consequence on the organization.
  • 12. Risk Assessment Methodology ASSET Assets Valuation Asset Value Integrity AvailabilityConfidentiality
  • 13. 13 C I A Asset Value Level 1 5 1 5 Very High 3 1 4 4 High 3 2 1 3 Medium 2 2 1 2 Low 1 1 1 1 Very Low Risk Assessment Methodology Asset Valuation is based on qualitative approach and the value is described in terms of Very High, High, Medium, Low and Very low impacts.
  • 14. Risk Assessment Methodology Threats and Vulnerabilities Identification VulnerabilityASSET Probability Impact Zero Controls Vulnerability Level Vulnerability Threat Threat Level Threats and Vulnerabilities Valuation
  • 15. 15 Level Value Very High 5 High 4 Medium 3 Low 2 Very Low 1 1- Threat source is neither motivated nor capable 2- Very low likelihood of occurrence Threats Scales Description 1- Threats that affects Company’s reputation (Industrial Espionage, Legal Violations, etc) 2- Very high likelihood of occurrence 1- Deliberate Threats, Any occurrence that has premeditated intent, for example include a malcontent, employee shredding important documents etc. (Unauthorized Access, Social Engineering, etc) 2- High likelihood of occurrence 1- Accidental Threats, Any occurrence that doesn’t have premeditated intent, for examples an employee accidentally deleting an important file, failed backup etc. (User Operational Errors) 2- Natural Threats and Environmental Threats (Earthquake, lightening, High temperature, etc) 3- Medium likelihood of occurrence 1- Natural Threats and Environmental Threats (Earthquake, lightening, High temperature, etc) 2- Low likelihood of occurrence
  • 16. 16 Level Value Very High 5 High 4 Medium 3 Low 2 Very Low 1 The vulnerability is not considered exploitable at present. (For example: Obsolete/age of the hardware) Vulnerabilities Scales Description The vulnerability can be exploited by an unskilled attacker (e.g. script-kiddie), by using ready-made exploits. (For example: Lack of perimeter security control IDS, IPS, Firewall etc). The vulnerability can be exploited by an advanced attacker via a sophisticated attack with custom-built tools/methods. Furthermore, the attacker must be considerably determined. (For example: Uncontrolled access to systemutilities (Administrative privilege). The vulnerability is considered to be exploitable by an advanced attacker, but only under certain conditions: • Very determined attacker • Substantial knowledge of the internal network (For example: Inadequate logical access controls) The vulnerability cannot be directly exploited, but there is a possibility to be exploited in the future (For example: Lack of physical controls.)
  • 17. Risk Assessment Methodology Calculation of Risk = Risk Level Asset Value Threat Level Vulnerability Level
  • 18. Risk Assessment Example 18 Low 4 3 2 Asset Value Threat Value Vulnerability ValueHigh Medium MoR =Asset Value x Threat Value x Vulnerability Value MoR= 4x 3x 2 = 24
  • 19. MoR Mapping to Risk Level 19 Asset, Threat and Vulnerability Scale is set from 1 to 5 MoR Risk Level 1 - 20 Very Low 21 - 32 Low 33 - 50 Medium 51 - 75 High 76 - 125 Very High MOR Mapping to Risk Level The Risk Level Scale will be from 1 to 125 (5x5x5=125)
  • 20. Acceptable Level OF Risk 20 The Acceptable Level of Risk will be All the Risks with Value below 32 All The Risks With The Risk Level of Low and Very Low will be Acceptable and The Risks With Values Medium, High and Very High Need to be Treated.
  • 21. Risk Mitigation Methodology 21 Risk Level Prepare Risk Mitigation Options Finish Not Acceptable Acceptable Existing Controls
  • 22. Risk Mitigation Options Criteria’s 22 Controls identified and selected in the risk mitigation options phase need to be: Controls are Documented (Policies and Procedures)  Policies and Procedures (Management Security Controls), are implemented to manage and reduce the risk of loss and to protect an organization’s assets and mission.  Management controls focus on the requirement of information protection policy, , which are carried out through operational procedures to fulfill the organization’s goals and missions. Controls are Implemented  Controls identified and selected in the risk mitigation options phase need to be implemented and evidences of the implementation must be available. Implemented Controls are Effective  Based on the assurance level the existing control or suggested control can provide to reduce or eliminate the vulnerability Note: The effectiveness of the implemented controls will be based on Experience and/or Judgment and will be evaluated, checked and verified continually throughout ISMS Audits
  • 23. Risk Mitigation Methodology 23 Controls Implementation Finish Define Additional Controls Prepare Risk Treatment Plan Recalculate the Risk Existing Controls Acceptable Recalculate the Risk Not Acceptable Residual Risk Not Acceptable MoR with Existing Controls Prepare Risk Mitigation Options

Editor's Notes

  • #2: 1
  • #11: Input from the Client is need with regard to: What is the maximum tolerable down time for which the Availability of the asset and/or services need to be considered from Very Low to Very High
  • #13: The values for C, I and A are different and the maximum value of them is been taken as overall asset value.
  • #21: We need to have the management decision on the Acceptable Level of Risk.   Acceptable Level of Risk can be: To Accept all the Risks with Medium, Low & Very Low values as provided and to treat all the Risks with High & Very High Values. The second option can be to accept the Risk with Low & Very Low values and Treat the Risks with Medium, High & Very High