Road to Lima COP20

Kyoto and Beyond
ROAD
TO
LIMA
The 13th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements
related to climate change
www.isciences.com November 19, 2014

Introduction
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international
climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.
Road to Lima is a summary of preparations for COP20, the 20th session of the
Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 10th session of the Conference of the
Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. COP20 will be held
Dec. 1 – 12, 2014 in Lima, Peru.
Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*:
 2008 Kyoto and Beyond
 2012 Road to Rio+20
 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update
 2012 Report on Rio+20
 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15
 2012 Road to Doha COP18
 2010 Road to Cancun COP16
 2013 Report on Doha COP18
 2011 Report on Cancun COP16
 2014 Report on Warsaw COP19
 2011 Road to Durban COP17
 2012 Report on Durban COP17
* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html
Road to Lima (ISCIENCES, LLC) 2

Contents
Historical Background
Conference Overview
Multilateral Process
Issues & Positions
Conclusion
This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text.

Background: Timeline
1992
UN Framework
Convention on
Climate Change
1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012
2011
Durban Platform
adopted
at COP17
2007
IPCC 4th
Assessment Report
2010
Cancun
Agreements
drafted at
COP16
1990
IPCC 1st
Assessment
Report
1995
IPCC 2nd
Assessment
Report
1997
Kyoto Protocol
adopted 2001
IPCC 3rd
Assessment Report
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Sept. 1999
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Sept. 2011
2005
Kyoto Protocol
enters into force
2009
Copenhagen
Accord drafted
at COP15
2013
IPCC 5th
Assessment
Report
“A Year in the Life of Earth’s CO2”
(Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight
Center) A simulation of carbon dioxide in
Earth’s atmosphere provides an ultra-high-
resolution look at how the key
greenhouse gas moves around the globe
and fluctuates in volume throughout the
year.
Visualization Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2006

Background: Climate Policy
In 1992 the UNFCCC established the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas
emissions (GHGs) to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.”
Since then the global policy framework has continued to evolve.
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)
1997 The Kyoto Protocol created an international legal framework within the UNFCCC
for emissions reduction targets during the period 2008-2012 for developed
countries.
2009 The Copenhagen Accord, conceived outside of the UNFCCC process, called for
voluntary emissions reduction targets achieved by 2020, and endorsed a cap on
global temperature increase of 2⁰C. The UNFCCC officially “took note” of the
Accord.
2010 The Cancun Agreements acknowledged within the UNFCCC framework the
objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2⁰C.
2011 The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, adopted within the UNFCCC process,
mandated the creation of a new agreement (post-Kyoto Protocol) that would be
“applicable to all.”
For a more detailed history of the UNFCCC see http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html.

Background: The ADP
In 2011 at COP17 Durban, South Africa, UNFCCC negotiators created the Ad Hoc
Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP).
The ADP was tasked with:
 Developing a post-2020 treaty applicable to all that would be
completed and adopted by 2015 at COP21 Paris and enter into
force by 2020, the year in which the 2nd period of the Kyoto
Protocol expires.
 Enhancing mitigation ambition to close the ambition gap – the
difference between emissions levels expected in 2020 if pledges
are met and levels needed by 2020 to meet the 2⁰C target. Report of the Conference of the Parties on its
seventeenth session, held in Durban from 28
November to 11 December 2011
(FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1 )
In order to adopt a new treaty in 2015, the ADP should have a detailed working
draft of the text ready for discussion at COP20 Lima on Dec. 1, 2014.

Overview: COP20 Lima 2014
COP20 will be held Dec. 1 – Dec. 12, 2014 in Lima, Peru.
The 2014 meeting is the 20th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and
the 10th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of
the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.
The Conference will be hosted by Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, Minister of
the Environment of Peru, and President-Designate of COP 20 and
CMP 10* and Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the
UNFCCC.
Christiana Figures
More than 15,000 people are expected, representing 194 nations
and more than 5,000 observer organizations.
* Following the procedural rules of the UNFCCC, the office of COP President and host country rotates among the 5 UN regional groups.
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal
(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

Overview: COP20 Objectives
COP20’s primary objective is to elaborate elements for a draft negotiating text
of the 2015 agreement.
Overall Objectives for COP20:
 Produce a draft text of the 2015 agreement.
 Decide whether adaptation, as well as mitigation, will be included in the
agreement.
 Clarify how transparency and assessment of the INDCs* will be accomplished.
 Consolidate the financial mechanisms of the Convention that will support the
agreement.
 Accelerate implementation of pre-2020 ambition through concrete actions.
“We expect that the COP 20 will produce a draft agreement to be signed in 2015, and we wish the Lima Document to be
clear and coherent, we do not want a compilation of loose and inarticulate ideas.”
- Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, Sept. 23, 2014
* INDCs-Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. http://www.mitigationpartnership.net/international-partnership-mitigation-and-mrv-2014-intended-nationally-determined-contributions

Overview: Peru’s Leadership
With glaciers melting and drought in the Amazon, Peru
is clearly vulnerable to climate change, yet its
environmental progress has been slow, and at times,
violent.
Lima, Peru
(Image Credit: Christian Cordova,
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ccordova/8693828441/)
Lima has the worst air pollution in Latin America*, and the
country’s illegal mining and logging have resulted in the
deaths of environmental activists.
Peru’s Environment Ministry wasn’t created until 2008 and only under pressure from
the US as a condition of trade. Environment Minister Pulgar-Vidal has spent years in
environmental roles but recent economic reforms by Peruvian President Humala have
sacrificed environmental standards and undermined the Ministry’s authority.
Though it may be difficult to lead by example, Peru must garner timely climate
commitments from international negotiators.
* Peruvian Times. May 8, 2014. http://www.peruviantimes.com/08/world-health-organization-says-lima-has-worst-air-pollution-in-latam/22119/.

Process: UN Preparations
The UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP20 involves many
interconnected UN bodies and working groups.
(Image Credit: UNFCCC,
http://unfccc.int/bodies/items/
6241.php)

Process: Pre-COP March 2014 Bonn
At the first of three scheduled inter-COP meetings, negotiators at the
March 10-14, 2014 Climate Change Conference in Bonn began open-ended
discussions on the two workstreams of the ADP.
ADP Co-Chairs Kishan Kumarsingh (Trinidad
and Tobago) and Artur Runge-Metzger (EU)
(Image Credit: UNclimatechange/flickr)
Workstream 1: The 2015 agreement
Concerns were expressed about transparency and inclusiveness of
process, not wanting a repeat of Copenhagen where the Accord was
created outside of the COP. A workshop addressed domestic preparations
for INDCs.
Workstream 2: Increasing pre-2020 ambition
Two Technical Expert Meetings* (TEMs) were held during which guest panelists shared options on
renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Delegates agreed to start drafting text of the 2015 agreement at the upcoming
meeting in June.
* In Warsaw, the ADP requested technical expert meetings at 2014 sessions to share policies, practices and technologies with high mitigation potential.

Process: Pre-COP June 2014 Bonn
At the Bonn Climate Change Conference June 4-15, 2014 conversations were
lively as representatives began articulating a wide spectrum of positions.
Workstream 1: The 2015 Agreement
Heated exchanges on INDCs captured much of the floor time. Delegates
discussed how INDCs should be defined, submitted, and reviewed.
Developed countries viewed INDCs as mitigation-based; developing
countries pushed for inclusion of adaptation, finance, capacity-building,
and technology.
Bonn Climate Change Conference, June 4, 2014
(Image Credit: UNclimatechange/flickr)
TEMs focused on opportunities for action on urban environment and land use.
ADP Co-Chairs Kumarsingh and Runge-Metzger were asked to compose and
make available by July a draft text in advance of the next pre-COP meeting in
Bonn October 20-25.

Process: Summit Sept 2014 NYC
UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon invited leaders from government and business to a
Climate Summit, Sept. 23, 2014 in New York City. Not part of the official UN
negotiating process, its purpose was to mobilize action ahead of 2015.
Though Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi - leaders of key CO2 emitting nations China and
India - did not attend, US President Barack Obama and 100 Heads of State did, along with
commercial and civic leaders.
Outcome Highlights:
 New York Declaration on Forests; halve deforestation by 2020, end it by 2030;
 a total pledge of US$2.3 billion made to the Green Climate Fund (GCF);
 the launch of the Global Alliance of Climate-Smart Agriculture;
 the announcement by the insurance industry of intention to create a Climate
Risk Investment Framework by 2015 in Paris;
On the Sunday before the Summit, a global climate march rallied 310,000
people in NYC and 270,000 elsewhere around the world.
 launch of a new Compact of Mayors;
 World Bank’s Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition to advance carbon pricing.
Ban Ki-moon (second from right) at climate march,
NYC Sept. 21, 2014.
(Image Credit: UN Photo)

Process: Pre-COP Oct 2014 Bonn
Negotiators at the Bonn Climate Change Conference October 20-25, 2014
slowly inched forward on refining a draft negotiating text.
Workstream 1: The 2015 Agreement
Progress was slow on defining how INDCs will operationalize
differentiation, scope and review, and whether to include adaptation
as well as mitigation. Brazil created a buzz with “concentric
differentiation,” a dynamic that would preserve differentiated
responsibilities while encouraging graduated targets.
Bonn Climate Change Conference, Oct. 20, 2014
(Image Credit: UNclimatechange/flickr
http://goo.gl/Uxx9c1)
TEMs on carbon capture, use and storage, and on non-CO2 GHGs were held.
Though the meeting produced revised drafts* by the Co-Chairs, content remained light on
negotiable substance, reflecting ongoing lack of agreement.
The ADP agreed to hold two additional sessions in 2015, the first of which will be
held February 8-13 February in Geneva.
* Draft INDCs; Draft Pre-2020 Action

Process: Conference Schedule
The 12-day gathering at COP20 in Lima includes meetings of the COP, CMP,
SBI, SBSTA, and ADP.
SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS
SESSION DATE AGENDA
COP 20 1 – 12 Dec 2014 FCCC/CP/2014/1
CMP 10 1 – 12 Dec 2014 FCCC/KP/CMP/2014/1
SBI 41 1 – 8 Dec 2014 FCCC/SBI/2014/9
SBSTA 41 1 – 6 Dec 2014 FCCC/SBSTA/2014/3
ADP 3 1 – 11 Dec 2014 ADP/2014/AGENDA
(Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons)
Overview schedule as of Oct. 15, 2014.
COP – Conference of the Parties
CMP – Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of
the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation
SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological
Advice
ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for
Enhanced Action

Issues: 2020 Treaty
On Nov. 11, 2014 the ADP released a “Non-paper on elements for a draft
negotiating text” of the 2015 agreement.
The challenge in Lima will be to reduce the many options and sub-options currently
outlined in the “Non-paper” into a clear framework with core elements. Issues include:
Mitigation commitments. Options: (1) all Parties to be prepared, communicated and implemented without conditions;
(2) developing country Parties to be prepared, communicated and implemented specifying additional enhanced levels
of mitigation commitments/contributions subject to the provision of support by developed country Parties; (3)
developing country Parties to be prepared, communicated and implemented subject to the provision of finance,
technology transfer, and capacity-building.
Cooperation and support for implementation. Options: (1) developed country Parties to provide support to developing
country Parties for implementation, taking into account CBDR*; (2) all Parties in a position to do so to provide support
for implementation; (3) a collective goal for support to be achieved by all Parties .
Time frames and process related to commitments/contributions. Options: (1) every 5 yrs for all parties or for
developed parties only; (2) every 5 yrs indicating the commitment/contribution for the subsequent 5-yr period as well
as for the following 5-yr period; (3) every 10 yrs; (4) period to be determined by the governing body.
To be ready for adoption at COP21 Paris in December 2015, the draft negotiating
text should be translated, reproduced, and available by May 2015.
* CBDR-Common But Differentiated Responsibilities

Issues: INDCs
The ADP is considering several options related to the kinds of information that
must be provided as countries submit their INDCs.
Embedded in those options is whether and how requirements for developed and
developing countries differ.
Mitigation: type, time-frame, sectors, quantification, transparency. Process decisions may include cycles
of action enabling increasing commitment, and the explicit goal of GHG phase-out.
Adaptation: inclusion, type, projected climate impacts, vulnerable sectors, timelines for support.
Sentiment is leaning towards inclusions of adaptation in the 2015 agreement.
Finance, technology and capacity-building: scale, type, time-frame, channels. The Green Climate Fund is
a critical vehicle, currently funded at $7.5 billion with a $10 billion goal. Negotiators must also create a
path towards mobilization of $100 billion a year in climate finance.
Assessment and transparency: means, methods. Assessment must be framed by the 2°C goal.
Countries will submit their INDCs in early 2015, with major emitters expected
to do so by the end of March.
* Options are outlined in a separate draft, also released on Nov. 11, 2014.

Issues: Pre-2020 Ambition
Pre-2020 ambition must increase in order to close the gap between pledged
cuts and targets recommended to keep warming to 2C.
At the pre-COPs in Bonn, Technical Expert Meetings showcased ways to shift to low-carbon
economies; countries must now implement those opportunities as part of their
Carbon pricing could play a role. So far, 73 countries, 1,000 businesses, and 354 major
institutional investors have declared support for carbon pricing. The EU currently runs
the largest carbon market but China has announced plans for a system in 2016 and Chile
approved a carbon tax beginning in 2018.
As of Nov. 14, 2014 only 19 countries have ratified the Doha Amendment.
near-term climate action plans.
Ratification of the 2012 Doha Amendment, which extended the Kyoto Protocol to
Dec. 31, 2020, is also an important piece of the ambition formula.

Issues: The Science
On Nov. 1, 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
released the Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report to inform delegates of
scientific realities as they work towards the Paris climate deal.
 To limit global average temperature increase to 2°C
(3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels emissions must
fall 40 to 70 percent from current levels by 2050
and to zero by 2100.
 With fast action, this could be done at a
manageable cost, a 0.06 percentage point
reduction a year in consumption of goods and
services, below annual projected growth of 1.6 to
3.0 percent.
(Image Credit: IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Presentation, Nov. 2, 2014,
Without timely emissions cuts, warming by the end of the 21st century will
bring high risks of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally.*
* AR5 Synthesis Report

Positions: A Landmark Deal
A potentially pivotal moment in global climate history occurred on Nov. 11,
2014 when the US and China struck a deal.
President Xi Jinping and President Obama, leaders of the No. 1 and No. 2 carbon
polluters, jointly announced targets for emissions reductions.
The US pledged to emit 26 to 28 percent less carbon in 2025
than in 2005, double the pace targeted for period 2005 to
2020.
China pledged to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and
that clean energy would account for 20 percent of total energy
production by 2030.
President Obama and President Xi Jinping, Nov. 11, 2014
(Image Credit: wh.gov)
The two also agreed to co-finance a carbon capture and storage project in China.
This handshake between the developed and developing world puts pressure on
foot-draggers in both camps to step forward with meaningful targets.

Positions: Global Responses
The China-US announcement elicited various responses around the globe and
created a ripple in bloc alliances.
The timing of the announcement, just prior to the G20 Summit, was significant.
AUSTRALIA. Australia’s PM and G20 host Tony Abbott was caught off-guard. Australia had repealed its cap-and-trade policy and
Abbott fought unsuccessfully to keep climate change off the G20 agenda. The G20 agreed to support adoption of a protocol with legal
force in 2015, financing for the Green Climate Fund, and submission of INDCs by first quarter of 2015.
INDIA. India downplayed pressure the deal put on India to fall in line and announce meaningful INDCs, responding that India would
declare an emissions peak “at the right moment". India’s action or inaction will be key in 2015.
CANADA. The deal presented challenges for Canada as well, which had generally aligned itself with the US in insisting that China and
other emerging economies set targets. Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011 and will fall short of its 2020 targets.
EUROPEAN UNION. The EU, the first major economy to set post-2020 emissions targets, had already announced targets at least 40
percent below 1990 levels by 2030, with renewable energy to provide at least 27 percent.
BRAZIL. Brazil maintains that developed countries must be held responsible for their historic contributions to climate change.
Though the landmark deal between the two global powerhouses is still a promise
that must be kept, governments can no longer point to China and the United
States to justify their own inaction.

Conclusion: Hope for Paris?
The US and China have created much-needed momentum towards a “last
chance” summit in Paris, but India and the rest of the world must commit.
“If you don’t have an agreement in Paris,
we may well say goodbye to the world
we have today.”
- Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist
As important as the US-China deal is in setting the
stage, it will not be enough to keep global warming
within the 2°C target.
Actions by India and Russia will be critical, as will those of the developing world who
will look to China in formulating their targets.
Watch for ISciences’ post-Lima analysis of COP20 at
http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html.

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Citation
When referencing this presentation please use the following citation.
ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Lima COP20. A slideshow; 13th installment in the series
Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate
Change. November 19, 2014. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.

Road to Lima COP20

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