Boulder Real Estate Research

THE SILVER FERN REPORT: Boulder
An analysis of real estate market conditions in
Boulder, Colorado
August, 2010
Phone: 303 586 1241 | www.silverfernhomes.com

2
THESILVERFERNREPORT:AUGUST2010
www.silverfernhomes.com ph: 303 586 1241
Legal
This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and use of the Silver Fern Homes clients in order to
assist their study of real estate market conditions. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is
incomplete without an in-person, oral presentation by Silver Fern Homes. This presentation reflects our views
of prevailing market conditions on this date, which are subject to change. Silver Fern Homes recommends
careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. The following
presentation is not to be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held
liable for investment decisions derived from this presentation. Previous market performance is not a
guarantee of future results and there is financial risk associated with buying or selling property. Consult with
your financial, legal, and real estate advisers before making an investment decision. The data in this
presentation was obtained by private and public sources, without independent verification.

Boulder, Colorado
Phone: 303 586 1241
www.silverfernhomes.com
“Our goal is help you get
the most value from your
unique real estate
situation. We offer our
clients the latest market
information, straight
forward advice and the
highest standards of
service.”
- Osman Parvez, Co-Founder

4
The Team
Osman Parvez: Co-Founder and Associate Broker. Osman’s professional experience includes investment
analysis, real estate development, and investment banking. He also loves being in the wilderness and has
research experience studying the impacts of climate change. Osman holds an MBA in finance and a B.S. in
Biology
Email: osman@silverfernrealty.com ph: 303.746.6896
Dallice Tylee: Co-Founder and Managing Broker. She holds a GRI and CRS. Dallice is also a Certified
Negotiation Expert, EcoBroker, and Accredited Staging Professional. A native of New Zealand, Dallice's
attention to detail and thorough, disciplined approach comes from previous professional experiences in health
sciences. She is passionate about interior design and landscaping.
Email: dallice@silverfernrealty.com ph: 303.746.6765
Crystal Callipari: Associate Broker. Crystal’s experience as a real estate investor and home builder
provides unique insight on buying, selling and marketing strategies. Prior to joining Silver Fern, she was a
frequent client of the firm, giving her perspective on the quality of service clients should expect from their
broker. Crystal has lived in Colorado for over 13 years with her husband. She has two grade school aged
children, one of whom is a competitive figure skater and the other a black belt in martial arts.
Email: crystal@silverfernrealty.com ph: 720.841.2701
Robbin Merta: Administrative Assistant. She has a B.F.A. in graphic design, experience owning several
small businesses, and is studying for her Realtor's license. Her strong interest and experience in home
renovation, both personally and professionally, is a practical complement to the Silver Fern team. She is a
stained glass artist who also enjoys volleyball, cooking and martial arts.
Email: robbin@silverfernrealty.com ph: 303.993.6139

Spotlight: The Colorado Chautauqua Association
Mission: to preserve, perpetuate and improve the
site and spirit of the historic Chautauqua by
enhancing its community and values through cultural,
educational, social and recreational experiences.
The Chautauqua experience is based on lifelong
learning, love of nature, voluntary simplicity, and
music, oration and the arts. Historic significance,
traditions, cultural relevance, respite and enrichment
are among the community benefits provided by the
Colorado Chautauqua
www.chautauqua.com
Silver Fern donates 5% of every
commission to local non-profits.
2009 Recipients:
Boulder Shelter for the Homeless
Colorado Chautauqua Association
Greenwood Wildlife Rehabilitation Sanctuary
Big Brothers Big Sisters
I Have a Dream Foundation
Circle of Care
Growing Gardens
Intercambio de Comunidades
Wildlands Restoration
Boulder Emergency Squad
Boulder Day Nursery
Citizens' Community Television
2008 Recipients:
Archway Wildlife Rehabilitation
Association for Community Living
Big Brothers, Big Sisters
Boulder Humane Society
Boulder Shelter for the Homeless
Front Range Center for Assault Prevention
Greenwood Wildlife Rehabilitation Center
I Have a Dream Foundation
Circle of Care
The Medicine Horse Program

6
City of Boulder
Single Family Houses
(detached dwellings)

7
House Inventory Rises
• 527 houses were
available for sale in the
City of Boulder during
July, about 4% higher
than the previous month
but well below last year.
• Inventory remains above
the long term average.
• Inventory usually peaks
in June and begins to
decline in July. Not this
year.
• The pronounced dip in
May was created by
home buyer tax credits.
This is “move forward”
buyer activity.
Boulder Inventory
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average ('04-'08) 2010 2009 Data: BARA© Silver Fern Homes
Make a Smart Real Estate Decision. www.silverfernrealty.com

8
House Sales Volume Plummets
• Only 49 homes sold in
the City of Boulder in
July, down 29% from
last year.
• Compared to the long
term average, sales
volume was down more
than 50%.
• Looking back over a
longer period: during the
past six months, 359
units sold, an increase
of 26% from the same
period a year ago.
Boulder Sales Volume
0
25
50
75
100
Our Realtors Can Help You Understand The Market and Negotiate A Great Deal

9
House Absorption Rate Cliff Dive
• Absorption is the
percentage of properties
that sell each month from
available inventory.
• It was 9.7% last month, a
record low and about half
the long term average for
July.
• Fewer than 1 in 10 listings
found a buyer in July. Ouch.
Boulder Inventory Absorption
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Expert Advice, No Happy Talk. www.silverfernrealty.com

10
What’s Under Contract?
• Inventory under contract is a look
at houses that will likely close in
the near future (generally within
30 days).
• As the season ends, the entry
level is experiencing a dramatic
reduction in demand while
homes priced from $450,000 to
$600,000 are experiencing
increased demand.
• Experience working with buyers
suggests that the tax incentives
mostly impacted lower priced
homes. The credit was
particularly meaningful for first
time buyers. Now expired, this
possibly explains the dramatic
reduction in activity at the entry
level.
Price Range Analysis
Percent Of Inventory Under Contract
Boulder Houses
0% 10% 20% 30%
$300 to 350K
$350 to 400K
$400 to 450K
$450 to 500K
$500 to 600K
$600 to 700K
$700 to 800K
$800 to 900K
$900 to 1MM
$1.0 to 1.5MM
May
July
August
© Silver Fern Homes

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Sales Volume Breakdown
• This chart shows sales volume
from the first two quarters and
July.
• Sales volume has been highest
at the mid-range of the market.
The $450,000 to $500,000
tranche saw the most activity in
July.
Sales Volume
Boulder Houses
0 10 20 30 40 50
$300 to 350K
$350 to 400K
$400 to 450K
$450 to 500K
$500 to 600K
$600 to 700K
$700 to 800K
$800 to 900K
$900 to 1MM
$1.0 to 1.5MM
1Q
2Q
July
© Silver Fern HomesStraight Talk, Honest Advice. www.silverfernrealty.com

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Inventory by Price Range
• This chart shows inventory by
price range. The gray bars are
inventory levels as of May. The
blue bars are current inventory
(August).
• Several price tranches
experienced dramatic increases,
most notably homes priced from
$350,000 to $400,000.
• Historically, the entry level has
seen the most intense demand.
Currently this segment has
surprisingly high inventory, a
likely artifact of the now expired
tax credits. Good news for
buyers. Bad news for sellers.
Inventory
Boulder Houses
0 15 30 45
$300 to 350K
$350 to 400K
$400 to 450K
$450 to 500K
$500 to 600K
$600 to 700K
$700 to 800K
$800 to 900K
$900 to 1MM
$1.0 to 1.5MM
May
August
v
© Silver Fern HomesLet's Talk Strategy. www.silverfernrealty.com

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Inventory by Price Range
• This chart illustrates how the
price tranches are behaving in
current market conditions.
• The $350,000 to $400,000
tranche has experienced
inventory levels rising more than
200% from May. Price tranches
from $600,000 to $800,000 have
also experienced substantial
inventory increases, but nothing
close to the entry level.
• This price range analysis is also
available for properties valued
above $1.5MM. Contact your
Silver Fern Realtor for more
information.
Percent Change in Inventory
Boulder Houses (May to August)
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
$300 to 350K
$350 to 400K
$400 to 450K
$450 to 500K
$500 to 600K
$600 to 700K
$700 to 800K
$800 to 900K
$900 to 1MM
$1.0 to 1.5MM
Percent Change
v
© Silver Fern HomesMake a Smart Real Estate Decision. www.silverfernrealty.com
208%

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Time After Time
2455 Bluff Street
Key Statistics:
3 Bed, 4 Bath
2,008 SQFT
Sold: 7/30/10
Days On Market: 130
Sold: $746,500
% of Original Asking : 93%
A succession of buyers have
rolled the die and hoped to
make some money on this
house. Spec’d and sold in
2006 and then again in 2008,
2009, and now 2010. With
fees, not likely at breakeven.
Notable Sales
A Million Off Sale?
2895 Stanford Ave
Key Statistics:
4 Bed, 4 Bath
6,430 SQFT
Sold: 7/30/10
Days on Market: 475
Sold: $1,700,000
Even the most stubborn sellers
eventually capitulate to Mr.
Market. Another beautiful, high-
end spec project with all the
bells and whistles that went
awry.
Left Money On The Table
420 S. 43rd
Street
Key Statistics:
5 Bed, 2 Bath
2,700 SQFT
Sold: 7/01/10
Days on Market: 42
Sold: $325,000
Seriously underpriced and
under contract in 3 days. Basic
ranches go for more in Martin
Acres. This one was on a quiet
street in the central part of the
neighborhood and included a
full basement. Oops.

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City of Boulder
Town Homes and Condos
(attached dwellings)

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Town Home & Condo Inventory FLAT
• 464 units were available for
sale in July, 1 more than last
month. It’s unusual to have
stable inventory levels for
three months in a row.
• On average, inventory peaks
in June. This year it occurred
in April.
• Inventory remains well below
the long term average, a
surprising fact but most
builders do not put their full
available inventory on the
MLS.
Boulder Attached Dwelling Inventory
300
350
400
450
500
Note: developers do not
list full inventory on the
MLS. True inventory is
substantially higher.
Serious Negotiation. www.silverfernrealty.com

17
Town Home & Condo Sales Volume
CRASHES
• 36 units sold in July, down
64% from last year.
• Over the past six months,
375 units have sold, 2%
more than the same period a
year ago.
• Town home and condo sales
are expected to continue to
comprise an increasing share
of the Boulder real estate
market. This is driven by
increasing buyer interest in
lower maintenance living.
Boulder Attached Dwelling Sales Volume
0
20
40
60
80
It's Your Money. www.silverfernrealty.com

18
Town Home & Condo Absorption DISMAL
• The absorption rate was
7.8% in July, less than half
of last year’s level.
• This is the aftermath of
“move forward” stimulus
activity.
• With flat inventory, this
points to more selection and
increasing buyer leverage in
negotiation.
• Sellers entering the market
are advised to select
Realtors based on their
current market knowledge
and marketing ability, not
happy talk on price.
Boulder Attached Dwelling Absorption
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Silver Fern Realtors Can Help You Understand The Market and Negotiate A Great Deal

19
• With only 39 sales, the
market was very thin in July.
• The chart shows sales
priced below $600,000
(where the vast majority of
sales occur).
• Units priced from $200,000
to $300,000 led the way,
with 14 sales.
• Above $600,000, 3 units
sold (not shown in the chart)
with One Penn Place, The
Arette, and The Walnut
each notching a closing.
July Sales Volume
Attached Dwellings
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
$0 to 100K
$100 to $150K
$150 to $200K
$200 to $250K
$250 to $300K
$300 to $350K
$350 to $400K
$400 to $450K
$450 to $500K
$500 to $550K
$550 to $600K
Silver Fern Realt ors Can Help You Underst and The Market and Negot iat e A Great Deal

20
• This chart adds sales from
July to the 1st
and 2nd
quarters of this year.
• The $150,000 to $200,000
tranche comprises the
highest volume, roughly
half the price of the entry
level house in Boulder.
• The luxury end of the
market is still hobbling
along, with 36 sales this
year priced above $600,000
(not shown on the chart).
Sales Volume
Attached Dwellings
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
$0 to 100K
$100 to $150K
$150 to $200K
$200 to $250K
$250 to $300K
$300 to $350K
$350 to $400K
$400 to $450K
$450 to $500K
$500 to $550K
$550 to $600K
Q1
Q2
July

21
Town Home & Condo Inventory
• This chart shows how
inventory levels have
changed from May (pink)
through August (gray).
• For buyers, selection has
increased in price ranges
from $150,000 to $250,000.
• From $250,000 to
$400,000, fewer units were
available in August than
July (blue).
• The lowest priced units
have seen a substantial
inventory drop.
Boulder Inventory
Attached Dwellings
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
$100 to $150K
$150 to $200K
$200 to $250K
$250 to $300K
$300 to $350K
$350 to $400K
$400 to $450K
$450 to $500K
$500 to $550K
$550 to $600K
May
July
August

22
Town Home & Condo Inventory
• This chart shows how
inventory has changed on a
percentage basis from May to
August (essentially the peak
real estate season).
• The $200,000 to $250,000
and the $550,000 to $600,000
tranches have seen the
largest inventory increases,
62% and 38%, respectively.
• The $100,000 to $150,000
and $500,000 to $550,000
tranches have seen
decreases of 37% and 50%,
respectively.
• These changes are
attributable to asking price
declines, withdrawn or expired
listings, and yes, the
occasional sale.
Inventory Attached Dwellings
Change from May to August
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
$100 to $150K
$150 to $200K
$200 to $250K
$250 to $300K
$300 to $350K
$350 to $400K
$400 to $450K
$450 to $500K
$500 to $550K
$550 to $600K

23
Town Home & Condo % Under Contract
• Inventory under contract is a
forward look at property that
is likely to close in the near
future (generally within the
30 days).
• Overall, a relatively small
percentage of inventory is
under contract.
• $300,000 to $350,000 is
currently the strongest
tranche, with buyers putting
more than 30% of inventory
under contract.
Boulder Percent Of Inventory Under Contract
Attached Dwellings
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
$100 to $150K
$150 to $200K
$200 to $250K
$250 to $300K
$300 to $350K
$350 to $400K
$400 to $450K
$450 to $500K
$500 to $550K
$550 to $600K
8/22/10

24
Gold Run
2902 Shadow Creek, #304
Key Statistics:
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,003 SQFT
Sold: 7/07/10
Days On Market: 163
Sold: $246,875
On the creek path, near CU and
29th
Street, and popular with
students and young
professionals. Too bad it
catches fire every now and then,
but sprinklers are likely in the
future. This one was a
penthouse unit with an elevator.
Boulder: Notable Sales
Land Lease
350 Arapahoe, Unit: 19
Key Statistics:
2 Bed, 2 Bath
851 SQFT
Sold: 7/02/10
Days on Market: 571
Sold: $33,000 (not a typo)
Land leases come with financing
issues and uncertain risk. Add
$9,500/yr for the lease and
$230/month HOA. Awesome
location but dropped to
unbelievable $39/SQFT to find a
buyer. Add some head
scratching for due diligence.
Beats A Dorm
2870 E. College Ave #104
Key Statistics:
1 Bed, 1 Bath
792 SQFT
Sold: 7/16/10
Days on Market: 79
Sold: $235,000
One of three similar units that
closed in July, with prices that
range from $297 to $373/SQFT.
What accounts for the
difference? Hate to be the guy
who bought the small one for
26% more.

25
Neighborhoods: Newlands
• There is no formal definition of the
neighborhood. For purposes of this
analysis, the search area was bounded by
Alpine to the south, Broadway to the east,
and Linden to the north. This is the blue
shaded area of the map.
• Note: some homeowners north of Iris
might claim to belong to Wonderland Hills.
Yes, the lot sizes are larger on Juniper,
Kalmia, and Linden, but "the hill" in
Wonderland Hills doesn't really begin until
north of Linden.
Research Spotlight

26
• The chart shows sales
volume over the past six
months in Newlands. The
same time period is shown
for the past four years.
• This year broke the trend,
with sales volume
increasing 100% from last
year’s level.
• Despite the increased
activity, volume remains
below the level in 2007,
which itself was not a
particularly great year for
Boulder Real Estate.
Research Spotlight
Sold Houses in Newlands
Last Six Months (Feb-July)
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010
data: IRESIS
Down
33%
Down
38%
Up
100%

27
• This chart compares sales
volume over the past six
months to recent inventory
levels.
• As the season winds down,
inventory remains at nearly
twice the level of what sold
over the past six months.
Research Spotlight
Sold vs Inventory of
Houses in Newlands
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sold (L6M) Inventory (8/13) data: IRESIS

28
• Market performance can
differ wildly by
neighborhood. This chart
shows how Newlands
compares with all of
Boulder and with Martin
Acres.
• Martin Acres, which has a
high percentage of entry
level homes, not
coincidentally also has an
exceptionally low supply of
inventory. Newlands has
nearly 3x the supply of
inventory.
Research Spotlight
Months of Inventory
0
2
4
6
8
10
Newlands All Boulder Martin Acres
data: IRESIS

29
• This chart depicts the price
distribution of current
inventory and listings that
sold over the past six
months.
• The red circle highlights a
glaring problem: nothing
sold over $1.4MM in
Newlands over the past six
months, yet a large volume
of homes remains
available. It’s a clear
indication of downward
price pressure at the high-
end.
• If Silver Fern was
representing a higher-end
buyer in Newlands, this
would be presented to the
seller accompanying our
initial low offer.
Research Spotlight
Price Distribution
in Newlands
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
Inventory Sold (L6M) data: IRESIS

30
• This chart shows price
distribution of sales in
Newlands over the last six
months and the same time
period for the previous
three years.
• Adding weight to the
argument that prices will
come down for high-end
properties in Newlands is
the fact that little has sold
while inventory remains
high (see last slide).
• The density of sales
between $600,000 and
$800,000 suggests a
support for pricing but
unless demand increases
materially at the high-end,
prices should continue to
erode from the top down
over the long-term.
Research Spotlight
Sold Price Distribution
in Newlands
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
data: IRESIS

31
• Failed listings are those
that automatically expire
from the MLS at the end of
the contract term or are
pulled off the market by
sellers (usually due to lack
of buyer interest).
• Looking back over the past
six months, the number of
failed listings fell somewhat
this year.
• 2009 was an unhappy year
for a surprising number of
sellers in Newlands.
Research Spotlight
Failed Listings in Newlands
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010
data: IRESIS

32
• Adding sales volume to the
previous chart shows that
there were more failed
listings than successful
closings last year.
• This year has been
somewhat better, but the
failure to success rate is
still dismally low.
• We reiterate: choose an
agent who adds value to
the transaction. The
agents at Silver Fern will
help you understand the
market and advise you on
how to get maximum value.
Research Spotlight
Listings in Newlands
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010
Sold Failed data: IRESIS

33
• The chart shows the
average and median
negotiated discount (from
last asking) in Newlands
over the last six months.
The same time period is
shown over four years.
• As market conditions
weaken, negotiation
leverage shifts to buyers.
• Agents have been able to
negotiate steeper discounts
and buyer expectation for
larger discounts is
increasing.
• For buyers, our goal at
Silver Fern is to do better
than “average.”
Research Spotlight
Negotiated Discount in Newlands
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010
Median Average data: IRESIS

34
Months of Inventory
• 5 to 6 months of inventory
is considered a normal or
“healthy” market.
• As expected, with the
expiration of the buyer tax
credit, inventory has
climbed in nearly all local
markets. Superior is the
exception.
• The largest relative
increases in inventory
have been in the Boulder
Attached Dwelling and
Broomfield markets.
Research Spotlight
Months of Inventory
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Boulder Boulder AD Broomfield Erie Lafayette Longmont Louisville Superior
3 Mo. Avg
Latest Month
www.silverfernhomes.com data: BARA
based on:

35
Lessons from the Trenches
On Pricing:
• Sellers: before listing, pay obsessive attention to
your home’s competition. At Silver Fern we
carefully review other homes a buyer might
consider before establishing a marketing plan.
On Negotiation:
• Primary negotiation occurs with the offer.
Knowledge of recent closings, when properly
communicated, adds leverage for buyers seeking a
large discount from the asking price.
On Inspection Resolution:
• It’s reasonable to expect concessions for serious
flaws uncovered through the buyer’s property
inspection, however this is not generally a second
round of negotiation. Get the price settled during
the primary negotiation.
• Trivial inspection items are usually not addressed
in resolution. Focus on the big ones.

36
Get A Great Deal
• Buying or selling a home is one of life’s largest
financial decisions. Shouldn’t you have a
professional adviser?
• We believe agents should add value and earn their
commission. The sooner we get started, the more
we can help.
• Give us a call. The real estate experts at Silver Fern
Homes can advise you on current market conditions,
help you find the right home, and negotiate the best
possible deal.
• We work with buyers and sellers throughout Boulder
County and beyond, including international
relocations.

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