Should the IEA do a 1.5°C scenario?
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The document discusses the need for the International Energy Agency (IEA) to consider a 1.5°C scenario in response to climate policy goals established by international agreements. It highlights the discrepancies in current pathways, noting that while the IEA's prior scenarios align with 1.5°C until 2050, they ultimately settle at higher temperatures due to insufficient negative emissions strategies. The summary emphasizes the urgency for more stringent climate targets and increased focus on sustainable development pathways to meet Paris Agreement objectives.
![• UNFCCC (1992): Avoid dangerous climate change
• Copenhagen (2009): “below 2°C” (consider 1.5°C by 2015)
• IPCC AR5 (2013/14): 66% probability below 2°C (~RCP2.6)
• Paris (2015): “well below 2°C…pursuing…1.5°C”
– “balance [in GHGs between 2050-2100], [SD & eradicate poverty]”
• IPCC SR15: “below 1.5°C in 2100 with [no or low overshoot]”
– 45% decline in emissions by 2030 (from 2010), net-zero ~2050
• “Activists”: Generally, below 1.5°C without negative emissions
The changing goal posts](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/petersclimatefinancev20190428-sharing-190430065627/85/Should-the-IEA-do-a-1-5-C-scenario-9-320.jpg)
![• “Make clear that the New Policies Scenario (NPS) is a
business as usual scenario that [leads to 2.7ºC to 3ºC]”
• “Develop an updated, fully transparent, ‘Sustainable
Development Scenario’ (SDS) to reflect … [Paris goals]”
– “make this the central scenario of the WEO”
– “reasonable probability (66%) of limiting warming to 1.5ºC”
– “a longer time horizon (beyond 2040)”
– “conservative approach to negative emission technologies”
– “reflect the latest [falling costs] … of clean technologies”
Joint letter to the IEA (quotes)
Source: IEA](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/petersclimatefinancev20190428-sharing-190430065627/85/Should-the-IEA-do-a-1-5-C-scenario-13-320.jpg)
Should the IEA do a 1.5°C scenario?
- 1. Should the IEA do a 1.5°C scenario? Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway) CICERO Climate Finance – Advisory Board Meeting (CICERO, 29/04/2019)
- 2. From no policy, to NDCs, to 2°C, to 1.5°C, to… The plethora of scenarios
- 3. There are now a new set of scenarios consistent with 1.5°C, in addition to existing 2°C & higher scenarios… Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C
- 4. Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Without climate policy, temperature >3°C We live in a world with climate policy, and most studies suggest current policies lead to about 3°C in 2100 There is a large range of baseline scenarios, we just do not know the “baseline” would in the future… Paris Agreement pushes emissions down
- 5. For 2°C, 25% reduction by 2030, net-zero around 2075, around 10GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100 Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) 2°C pathways require a radical change Nationally Determined Contributions (emission pledges)
- 6. For 1.5°C, 50% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2050, around 15GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100 Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) 1.5°C pathways are 2°C plus more Nationally Determined Contributions (emission pledges)
- 7. There are some short-term benefits of mitigation as well, reduced local air pollution, new jobs, etc Source: Rogelj et al 2018; Riahi et al. 2016; IIASA SSP Database; NASA GISS A lot of pain, not much gain? Paris pledges Paris goal CO2 Benefits °C Little gain
- 8. What is the objective of climate policy?
- 9. • UNFCCC (1992): Avoid dangerous climate change • Copenhagen (2009): “below 2°C” (consider 1.5°C by 2015) • IPCC AR5 (2013/14): 66% probability below 2°C (~RCP2.6) • Paris (2015): “well below 2°C…pursuing…1.5°C” – “balance [in GHGs between 2050-2100], [SD & eradicate poverty]” • IPCC SR15: “below 1.5°C in 2100 with [no or low overshoot]” – 45% decline in emissions by 2030 (from 2010), net-zero ~2050 • “Activists”: Generally, below 1.5°C without negative emissions The changing goal posts
- 10. The Paris text “well below 2°C…pursuing…1.5°C” seems to say between 1.5°C and 2°C, but ambiguous time period… Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) The Paris temperature window IPCC AR5 IPCC SR15
- 11. Source: IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C of Global Warming The IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C
- 12. The pressure on the IEA
- 13. • “Make clear that the New Policies Scenario (NPS) is a business as usual scenario that [leads to 2.7ºC to 3ºC]” • “Develop an updated, fully transparent, ‘Sustainable Development Scenario’ (SDS) to reflect … [Paris goals]” – “make this the central scenario of the WEO” – “reasonable probability (66%) of limiting warming to 1.5ºC” – “a longer time horizon (beyond 2040)” – “conservative approach to negative emission technologies” – “reflect the latest [falling costs] … of clean technologies” Joint letter to the IEA (quotes) Source: IEA
- 14. • NPS: One could argue too much focus • SDS: Consistent with ~1.7-1.8°C warming, plus some SDGs – Stops 2040, conservative on CCS/CDR, ok on solar/wind • Submitted to IPCC SR15 – ETP2017 “Below 2 Degree Scenario” (B2DS) – WEO2017 (IEA/IRENA) “Faster Transition Scenario” (66% 2DS) – (Did not submit the NPS or SDS) • How does the IEA stack up to other scenarios? Does the IEA do such a bad job? Notes
- 15. The two submitted IEA scenarios are consistent with 1.5°C scenarios with overshoot, but… …reach ~1.75°C in 2100 due to a low level of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Source: IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C of Global Warming The IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C
- 16. IEA consistent with 1.5°C until about 2050, but do not model net-negative emissions Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) CO2 emissions
- 17. IEA consistent with 1.5°C scenarios Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Final energy use
- 18. IEA consistent with 1.5°C until about 2030, but settles above many 1.5°C scenarios Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Coal use
- 19. IEA consistent with 1.5°C scenarios to 2050-2060 Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Oil use
- 20. 1.5°C scenarios have a lot of variation, but IEA is certainly not an outlier (it is within the bounds of most scenarios) Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Gas use
- 21. IEA is consistent with most 1.5°C scenarios Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Non-biomass renewables (wind, solar)
- 22. IEA is consistent with most 1.5°C scenarios Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Biomass
- 23. IEA is consistent with most 1.5°C scenarios. The SDS (not shown) has much lower CCS… Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Carbon capture & storage
- 24. IEA is lower than nearly all 1.5°C scenarios… Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Bioenergy with carbon capture & storage
- 25. Summary
- 26. • Over time climate targets get more stringent • Paris gives a window between 1.5°C & 2°C • IPCC SR15 is generally “below 1.5°C with limited overshoot” • IEA does not have a 1.5°C scenario, but earlier scenarios are similar to 1.5°C to 2050 but have less negative emissions • IEA does not seem to favour fossil fuels nor depend on negative emissions in comparison to other scenarios • IEA could put more focus on SDS & longer-term pathways Summary
Editor's Notes
- #2: 30 minutes