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SMART 2020: Enabling the
low carbon economy in the
information age.
A report by The Climate Group on
behalf of the Global eSustainability
Initiative (GeSI)

©Creative Commons 2008 Attribution
Noncommercial-No Derivative Works
Prior to distributing, copying or reporting
this work contact The Climate Group
(info@theclimategroup.org) or GeSI
(info@gesi.org).

Supporting Organisations
GeSI and member companies: Bell Canada,
British Telecommunications plc, Cisco
Systems, Deutsche Telekom AG, Ericsson,
France Telecom, Hewlett-Packard, Intel,
Microsoft, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks,
Sun Microsystems, T-Mobile, Telefónica
S.A., Telenor, Verizon, Vodafone plc.
Additional support: Dell, LG.

Steering Committee
Deutsche Telekom AG
Luis Neves, Chair of GeSI
The Climate Group
Emily Farnworth
Chair of Steering Committee
British Telecommunications plc
Chris Tuppen
Cisco Systems
Juan Carlos Castilla-Rubio
Intel
Robert Wright
LG
Alexander Grossmann
Nokia Siemens Networks
Juha-Erkki Mantyniemi
T-Mobile
Allison Murray
Vodafone plc
Joaquim Croca

Project Director
Molly Webb, The Climate Group

Independent Analysis
McKinsey & Company

Acknowledgements
The report was developed independently
on behalf of GeSI. Particular thanks to the
members of the Steering group and the
editorial team, who helped develop and
sustain the project. The analysis contained
in this report would not have been possible
without analysis from McKinsey, Jason
Adcock and Anna da Costa, co-editing
by Chris Tuppen and Juan Carlos Castilla-
Rubio and editorial support from Flemmich
Webb and Karen Anderton. Special thanks
to the participation of individuals in the
sponsoring companies (listed above) who
were involved throughout the analysis.
We are grateful to the experts we consulted
for general guidance and to develop our
regional case studies (Appendix 5) and also
to the many others not listed who
have supported along the way.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Support for the Report
economy in the information age                         3




Support for the Report



This rigorous assessment underlines that the           This report gives a clear picture of the key role
world can realise a green economy and make             that the ICT industry plays in addressing climate
the transition to a low carbon economy. It also        change globally and facilitating efficient and low
underlines the crucial importance of the               carbon development. The role of ICT not only
international community reaching a deal on a           includes emission reduction and energy savings
new climate agreement at the climate convention        in the ICT sector itself, but also benefits from the
meeting in Copenhagen in 2009. This partnership        adoption of ICT technologies to influence and
between GeSI (convened under UNEP) and The             transform the way our society works and the way
Climate Group, with analytical support from            people behave. By using our huge network and
McKinsey, gives us yet another platform for            over 400 million customers, China Mobile is doing
action and yet another compelling reason for           its best to promote this transformation and to
reasoned optimism Achim Steiner, UN Under-             realise real sustainable development for human
Secretary General and Executive Director, UN           beings and the environment. Wang Jianzhou,
Environment Programme (UNEP)                           Chief Executive, China Mobile Communications
                                                       Corporation
Nowhere is ICT’s vast potential more apparent
than India where it is driving opportunity and         Unlocking the universal potential of clean
development and transforming our economy               technology in the information systems sector is a
and society. This important report makes clear         critical step toward a low carbon future. Silicon
the exciting opportunity that exists for industry      Valley innovators and the growing support of
to significantly contribute to climate change          clean tech investors in California place the state in
abatement, as well as expand into new markets.         a unique position to lead the effort to combat
Nandan Nilekani, Co-Chairman, Infosys                  global warming. Linda Adams, Secretary,
Technologies Limited                                   California Environmental Protection Agency

The ICT industry has a very significant role to play
in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially
in a rapidly developing country such as China.
Future development in China should not follow
the wrong path taken by developed countries.
Many industries can make use of modern ICT
technology to move into higher efficiency low
carbon markets. If we are to better use ICT
technology to move away from existing energy-
intensive work habits and lifestyles, we need
government policy innovations, incentives for
companies and the active participation of
consumers. Tang Min, Deputy Secretary-General,
China Development Research Foundation
Smart2020 English
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon   Contents
     economy in the information age        5




     Contents



06 Forewords
09 Report Summary
   Chapter 1:
12 The time for change
   Chapter 2:
17 Taking direct action
     Chapter 3:
29   The enabling effect
29   Dematerialisation
32   SMART motors
36   SMART logistics
40   SMART buildings
45   SMART grid
   Chapter 4:
53 The SMART 2020 transformation
     Appendices
63   1: Scope, process and methodology,
65   2: The direct impact assumptions
66   3: The enabling effect assumptions
75   4: Company commitments
79   5: Experts consulted and interviewed
83   6: Glossary
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    GeSI Foreword
economy in the information age                         6




Forewords

A force for change                                     2. Put more emphasis on climate change issues
The most recent results presented by climate              in our supply chain work so we influence the
scientists are alarming. The accumulation of              end-to-end manufacturing process for
greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere                  electronic equipment
is growing faster than originally predicted.
Scientists, economists and policy makers are           3. Ensure that energy and climate change matters
calling for emissions targets of at least 20%             are fully considered by the organisations that
below 1990 levels in 2020.                                set the technical standards for our industry
            It is our responsibility to estimate
the GHG emissions from the information and             4. Work with organisations in the key opportunity
communications technology (ICT) industries                areas – travel/transport, buildings, grids and
and to develop opportunities for ICT to contribute        industry systems – to help turn potential CO2         About GeSI
to a more efficient economy.                              reductions into reality. This will include a strong   GeSI (www.gesi.org) is an international
            “SMART 2020 – Enabling the low                emphasis on the significant opportunities             strategic partnership of ICT companies and
                                                                                                                industry associations committed to creating
carbon economy in the information age”                    offered by dematerialisation                          and promoting technologies and practices
presents the case for a future-oriented ICT                                                                     that foster economic, environmental and
                                                                                                                social sustainability and drive economic
industry to respond quickly to the challenge of        5. Work with public policy makers to ensure that         growth and productivity. Formed in 2001,
global warming.                                           the right regulatory and fiscal frameworks are        GeSI fosters global and open cooperation,
                                                                                                                informs the public of its members’
            We now have evidence demonstrating            in place to move us all in the right direction.       voluntary actions to improve their
that the ICT industry is a key player in creating a                                                             sustainability performance and promotes
                                                                                                                technologies that foster sustainable
low carbon society and could do a lot more to help     We will do this by involving appropriate partners        development. It partners with the UNEP
push the world in this direction by 2020.              drawn from the business and NGO worlds.                  and the ITU. These partners help shape
                                                                                                                our global vision regarding the evolution
            The ICT sector’s own emissions are         In particular we aim to continue our successful          of the telecommunications sector and how
expected to increase, in a business as usual (BAU)     partnership with The Climate Group. We will              we can best meet the challenges
                                                                                                                of sustainable development.
scenario, from 0.53 billion tonnes (Gt) carbon         also continue to work collaboratively with the
dioxide (CO2) in 2002 to 1.43 GtCO2 in 2020. But       International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
specific ICT opportunities identified in this report   and the World Business Council for Sustainable
can lead to emission reductions five times the size    Development (WBCSD).
of the sector’s own footprint, up to 7.8 Gt carbon
dioxide equivalent (CO2e), or 15% of total BAU         In conclusion
emissions by 2020.                                     The ICT sector has both a profitable opportunity
            This report has identified many            and a critical role to play with other sectors to
opportunities for the ICT industry, to replace         design and deploy solutions needed to create
goods and services with virtual equivalents and        a low carbon society. I urge you to review this
to provide technology to enable energy efficiency.     report and focus your efforts on improving
The ICT sector must act quickly to demonstrate         energy efficiencies wherever possible, to
what is possible, get clear messages from policy       collaborate with us in steering regulations to
makers about targets and continue to innovate          be more productive and to move boldly forward
radically to reduce emissions. The publication         with technologies to improve our global climate.
of this report is not an end but a beginning and       Acting now will be good for business, good for
GeSI is committed to continue to work across           the economy and good for the world.
the industry as a force for change. In particular
GeSI will:

1. Develop an agreed ICT industry-wide
   methodology for the carbon footprinting             Luis Neves
   of ICT products and services                        Chair, GeSI
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The Climate Group Foreword
                                                economy in the information age                          7




                                                The SMART solution                                      Companies that implement the solutions will
                                                Putting a man on the moon was one of the                capture part of the potential global savings of
                                                greatest technological challenges of the 20th           ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion), once again showing
                                                century. In the 21st century we face an even            that tackling climate change is not only good for
                                                greater test – tackling climate change. In contrast     the climate but good for the economy.
                                                to the space race, the solutions required today                     Given the unpredictable nature
                                                must encompass us all. This is not just about one       of technological innovation, there is always
                                                man walking on the moon, but about 7 or 8 billion       uncertainty in estimating future impactsand this
                                                people, the population of 2020, living low carbon       report has identified a number of hurdles that
                                                lifestyles in harmony with our climate.                 must be overcome if the large savings highlighted
                                                            How can a mission of this size be           are to be realised. Furthermore, the ICT sector will
                                                achieved? This report illustrates for the first         have to focus on reducing its direct footprint as
                                                time the scale of the opportunity for ICT to drive      the demand for its products and services grows.
                                                efficiency across the economy and deliver               But this is the first time that the potential of ICT
                                                emission savings of 15% - 7.8 GtCO2e - of global        to reduce emissions has been put on the same
                                                BAU emissions in 2020.                                  plane as other climate change solutions, such as
                                                            Recently, Lord Stern revised his targets    carbon capture and storage (CCS).
                                                for safe levels of GHG emissions reductions to                      This sends a clear message to industry
                                                2 tonnes per capita by 2050 (20 GtCO2e). The            leaders and policy makers around the world that,
                                                ICT-enabled solutions in this report would make         through collaboration, ICT solutions can unlock
                                                possible savings of 1 tonne per capita in 2020,         emissions reductions on a dramatic scale.
                                                a significant step in the right direction.                          To get things moving forward, this
                                                            When we started the analysis, we            report launches our new SMART framework,
                                                expected to find that ICT could make our lives          a guide for developing ICT solutions. Through
                                                ‘greener’ by making them more virtual – online          standards, monitoring and accounting (SMA)
                                                shopping, teleworking and remote communication          toolsand rethinking (R) and optimising how
                                                all altering our behaviour. Although this is one        we live and work, ICT could be one crucial piece
                                                important aspect of the ICT solution, the first and     of the overall transformation (T) to a low
                                                most significant role for ICT is enabling efficiency.   carbon economy.
                                                            Consumers and businesses can’t                          The Climate Group, along with GeSI,
About The Climate Group
The Climate Group is an independent,            manage what they can’t measure. ICT provides            will be taking the report findings to the USA,
not-for-profit organisation that works          the solutions that enable us to ‘see’ our energy        China, India and Europe to work with decision
internationally with government and
business leaders to advance climate change      and emissions in real timeand could provide the         makers and leading companies to develop a set
solutions and accelerate a low carbon           means for optimising systems and processes to           of scenarios – the vision – focused on how to turn
economy. Its coalition of proactive leaders
– from government, business and civil           make them more efficient. Efficiency may not            the ideas presented here into a global reality.
society – has demonstrated that emissions       sound as inspirational as a space race but, in the                  Putting a man on the moon was
reductions, essential to stop climate change,
can be achieved while boosting profitability    short term, achieving efficiency savings equal to       once thought impossible. The next “giant leap
and competitiveness. More companies,            15% of global emissions is a radical proposition.       for mankind” is within our reach, but only if
states, regions and cities around the world
are realising there are significant economic    The breadth of solutions will span motor systems,       we act now.
as well as environmental advantages from        logistics and transport, buildings and electricity
taking decisive action now. The Climate
Group was founded in 2004 and has offices       grids – across all key economies in the world.
in the UK, USA, China, India and Australia.                 Mature economies will be able to
A European office is planned for 2008.
                                                upgrade and optimise entrenched systems
                                                and infrastructures. Developing countries
                                                could ‘leapfrog’ inefficient mechanisms and
                                                integrate state-of-the-art solutions into their         Steve Howard
                                                evolving societies.                                     CEO, The Climate Group
Smart2020 English
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Report Summary
                                                 economy in the information age                         9




                                                 Report Summary



1
 The Stern Review suggested that                 The ICT sector has transformed the way we live,        Our analysis identifies some of the biggest and
developed countries reduce emissions
20-40% below the 1990 levels would be
                                                 work, learn and play. From mobile phones and           most accessible opportunities for ICT to achieve
a necessary interim target based on IPPC         micro-computer chips to the internet, ICT has          these savings.
and Hadley Centre analysis. Source: Stern,
N (2008), Key Elements of a Global Deal
                                                 consistently delivered innovative products and
on Climate Change, London School of              services that are now an integral part of everyday     •Smart motors: A review of manufacturing in
Economics and Political Science, http://
www.lse.ac.uk/collections/climateNetwork/
                                                 life. ICT has systematically increased productivity     China has identified that without optimisation,
publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_           and supported economic growth across both               10% of China’s emissions (2% of global
30Apr08.pdf
2
                                                 developed and developing countries. But what            emissions) in 2020 will come from China’s motor
 All currency conversions to US$ based
on exchange rate ¤1=$ 1.57757, obtained
                                                 impact does pervasive information and                   systems alone and to improve industrial
at http://xe.com on 9th June 2008.               communication technologies have on global               efficiency even by 10% would deliver up to
3
  Exact figures: ¤553 billion ($872.3 billion)   warming? Is it a sector that will hinder or help        200 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e savings. Applied
in energy and fuel savedand an additional
¤91 billion ($143.5 billion) in carbon saved
                                                 our fight against dangerous climate change?             globally, optimised motors and industrial
assuming a cost of carbon of ¤20/tonne,                      To answer these questions, this report      automation would reduce 0.97 GtCO2e in 2020,
for a total of ¤644 billion ($1,015 billion)
savings.
                                                 has quantified the direct emissions from ICT            worth ¤68 billion ($107.2 billion).4
4
 All value figures here include a cost for
                                                 products and services based on expected
carbon of ¤20/tonne. See Appendix 3 for          growth in the sector. It also looked at where ICT      • Smart logistics: Through a host of efficiencies
detailed assumptions.
                                                 could enable significant reductions of emissions         in transport and storage, smart logistics in
                                                 in other sectors of the economy and has quantified       Europe could deliver fuel, electricity and heating
                                                 these in terms of CO2e emission savings and              savings of 225 MtCO2e. The global emissions
                                                 cost savings.                                            savings from smart logistics in 2020 would reach
                                                             Aside from emissions associated with         1.52 GtCO2e, with energy savings worth
                                                 deforestation, the largest contribution to               ¤280 billion ($441.7 billion).
                                                 man-made GHG emissions comes from power
                                                 generation and fuel used for transportation.           • Smart buildings: A closer look at buildings in
                                                 It is therefore not surprising that the biggest role     North America indicates that through better
                                                 ICTs could play is in helping to improve energy          building design, management and automation
                                                 efficiency in power transmission and distribution        15% of North America’s buildings emissions
                                                 (T&D), in buildings and factories that demand            could be saved. Globally, smart buildings
                                                 power and in the use of transportation to                technologies would enable 1.68 GtCO2e
                                                 deliver goods.                                           of emissions savings, worth ¤216 billion
                                                             In total, ICTs could deliver                 ($340.8 billion).
                                                 approximately 7.8 GtCO2e of emissions savings
                                                 in 2020. This represents 15% of emissions in 2020      • Smart grid: Reducing T&D losses in India’s
                                                 based on a BAU estimation. It represents a               power sector by 30% is possible through better
                                                 significant proportion of the reductions below           monitoring and management of electricity
                                                 1990 levels that scientists and economists               grids, first with smart meters and then through
                                                 recommend by 2020 to avoid dangerous climate             integrating more advanced ICTs into the
                                                 change1In economic terms, the ICT-enabled                so-called energy internet. Smart grid
                                                 energy efficiency translates into approximately          technologies were the largest opportunity found
                                                 ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion2) of cost savings.3         in the study and could globally reduce 2.03
                                                 It is an opportunity that cannot be overlooked.          GtCO2e , worth ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion).
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Report Summary
economy in the information age                         10




While the sector plans to significantly step up
the energy efficiency of its products and
services, ICT’s largest influence will be by
enabling energy efficiencies in other sectors, an
opportunity that could deliver carbon savings five
times larger than the total emissions from the entire
ICT sector in 2020.




These are not easy wins. There are policy, market      This is the opportunity the ICT sector has in the     5
                                                                                                               The scope of this analysis includes whole
                                                                                                             life emissions from PCs and peripherals,
and behavioural hurdles that need to be overcome       fight against climate change. But it does come at     data centres, telecoms devices and telecoms
to deliver the savings possible. For example,          a cost. Emissions from the sector are estimated       networks.
Chinese factory managers find it difficult to stop     to rise significantly over the coming years – from
producing long enough to implement more                0.5 GtCO2e today to 1.4 GtCO2e in 2020 under
efficient industrial processes because they risk       BAU growth.5 This growth assumes that the sector
losing revenue and competitiveness.                    will continue to make the impressive advances
            Logistics efficiency is hampered by        in energy efficiency that it has done previously.
fragmentation in the market, which makes it            However, meeting the sheer scale of demand for
difficult to coordinate across the sector to achieve   products and necessary supporting services in
economies of scale. Even with the latest               emerging markets such as China and India and
technologies implemented, buildings are only           continuing to deliver the services to increase
efficiently if managed properly. In India, there is    productivity growth in the developed world will
no coordinated national roadmap for smart grid         effectively outweigh the adoption of the current
implementation and more needs to be done to            wave of efficiency benefits per product or service.
build the cross-functional and cross-sectoral          There is also the possibility that the speed of
capabilities needed to design and implement            introduction and the impact of new ICT
innovative business and operating models and           technology or the mass adoption of social
deliver new technology solutions.                      networking could cut carbon emissions in ways
            In addition to the savings possible by     currently impossible to predict.
supporting other sectors to become more energy                     While the sector plans to significantly
efficient, there are also potential energy savings     step up the energy efficiency of its products and
from dematerialisation or substitution – replacing     services , ICT’s largest influence will be by
high carbon physical products and activities (such     enabling energy efficiencies in other sectors,
as books and meetings) with virtual low carbon         an opportunity that could deliver carbon savings
equivalents (e-commerce/e-government and               five times larger than the total emissions from the
advanced videoconferencing). Our study indicates       entire ICT sector in 2020.
that using technology to dematerialise the way we
work and operate across public and private sectors     Getting SMART
could deliver a reduction of 500 MtCO2e in 2020        The scale of emissions reductions that could be
– the equivalent of the total ICT footprint in 2002,   enabled by the smart integration of ICT into new
or just under the emissions of the UK in 2007.         ways of operating, living, working, learning and
However, these solutions would need to be more         travelling makes the sector a key player in the
widely implemented than they are today to realise      fight against climate change, despite its own
their full abatement potential.                        growing carbon footprint. No other sector can
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   Report Summary
economy in the information age                        11




supply technology capabilities so integral to         that drive low carbon alternatives can be
energy efficiency across such a range of other        developed and diffused at scale across all sectors
sectors or industries.                                of the economy.
            But with this potential comes with                     The ICT sector can’t act in isolation if it
responsibility. Emissions reductions in other         is to seize the opportunity it has to tackle climate
sectors will not simply present themselves; the       change. It will need the help of governments and
ICT sector must demonstrate leadership on climate     other industries. Smart implementation of ICTs
change and governments must provide the               will require policy support including standards
optimum regulatory context. This report outlines      implementation, secure communication of
the key actions needed.                               information within and between sectors and
            These actions can be summarised as the    financing for research and pilot projects.
SMART transformation. The challenge of climate                     This report demonstrates the potential
change presents an opportunity for ICT to first       role the ICT sector could play in mitigating
standardise (S) how energy consumption and            climate change. It is now up to policy makers,
emissions information can be traced across            industry leaders and the sector itself to make
different processes beyond the ICT sector’s own       sure this potential is realised. The stakes couldn’t
products and services. It can monitor (M) energy      be higher.
consumption and emissions across the economy
in real time, providing the data needed to optimise
for energy efficiency. Network tools can be
developed that allow accountability (A) for
energy consumption and emissions alongside
other key business priorities. This information can
be used to rethink (R) how we should live, learn,
play and work in a low carbon economy, initially
by optimising efficiency, but also by providing
viable low cost alternatives to high carbon
activities. Although isolated efficiency gains do
have an impact, ultimately it will be a platform -
or a set of technologies and architectures -
working coherently together, that will have the
greatest impact. It is through this enabling
platform that transformation (T) of the economy
will occur, when standardisation, monitoring,
accounting, optimisation and the business models
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The time for change
economy in the information age.                        01/12




01: The time for change



The science                                            would incur a wider range of risks and impacts        6
                                                                                                               Pachauri, R.K and A. Reisinger (eds.)
                                                                                                             (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis
As stated in the Intergovernmental Panel on            and the estimates of damage could rise to 20%         Report. Contribution of Working Groups I,
Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2007 Synthesis Report:         of global GDP or more. In contrast, the costs         II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report
                                                                                                             of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,         of action – reducing GHG emissions to avoid           Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
as is now evident from observations of increases       the worst impacts of climate change –                 Change, Geneva, Switzerland.
in global average air and ocean temperatures,          can be limited to around 1% of global GDP             7
                                                                                                               McKinsey analysis for this report, based
                                                                                                             on IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising          each year.                                            and International Energy Agency (IEA)
global average sea level.”6                                        The review predicts that failure to act   (2007) World Energy Outlook.
           The global warming debate has now           today and in the future could cause possibly          8
                                                                                                               Recent analysis suggests that 450ppm may
                                                                                                             be too high and that we should be aiming
shifted from whether or not man-made climate           irreversible economic and social disruption           to reduce emissions more quickly: King D.
change is occurring to what atmospheric levels         “on a scale similar to those associated with the      and G. Walker (2008), ‘The Hot Topic: How
                                                                                                             to Tackle Global Warming and Still Keep the
of GHG are ‘safe’ and what can be done to              great wars and the economic depression of the         Lights On’, Hansen J., M Sato, P Kharecha,
prevent them from exceeding this threshold.            first half of the 20th century”.                      D Beerling., V Masson-Delmotte, M Pagani,
                                                                                                             M Raymo, D Royer and J Zachos (2008);
           Current BAU scenarios predict that                      Lord Stern has recently joined            ‘Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should
global emissions will rise from 40 GtCO2e              scientists in outlining the worsening nature          Humanity Aim?’, http://www.columbia.
                                                                                                             edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080331.pdf
(referred to as both ‘carbon’ and ‘GHG’                of the problem. His report on the economics
                                                                                                             9
                                                                                                              Stern, N (2006), Executive Summary,
emissions in this report) emitted each year in         of climate change should have issued a bleaker        Stern Review on the Economics of Climate
2002 to nearly 53 GtCO2e annually by 2020.7            warning when it was published 18 months               Change, HM Treasury.
Current atmospheric GHG levels stand at 430            ago, he said recently “We underestimated the          10
                                                                                                                Harvey, F and J. Pickard, “Stern takes
                                                                                                             bleaker view on warming”, Financial
parts per million (ppm) and are rising at              risks... we underestimated the damage                 Times, 17 April 2008, http://www.ft.com/
approximately 2.5ppm every year, leading us            associated with the temperature increases...          cms/s/0/d3e78456-0bde-11dd-9840-
                                                                                                             0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
beyond levels of 450-500 ppm (roughly twice            and we underestimated the probabilities of
                                                                                                             11
                                                                                                                Stern, N. (2008), Key Elements of a Global
pre-industrial levels).                                temperature increases.”10                             Deal on Climate Change, London School of
           The specific figures for what can be                    Society currently needs to reduce         Economics and Political Science, http://
                                                                                                             www.lse.ac.uk/collections/climateNetwork/
considered ‘safe’ are not universally accepted8        emissions to about 20 GtCO2e per year by              publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_
and will continue to be debated as new                 2050, according to Stern, about two tonnes per        30Apr08.pdf
information becomes available. Whichever               person in 2050. Given that the current underlying
benchmark is used, the magnitude of cuts               rate of decrease in carbon intensity, defined as
required will be challenging.                          tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e)/
                                                       GDP, is 1% per year and that the world
The economics                                          economy continues to grow by 3-4% per year,
Former UK Government and World Bank                    carbon emissions will continue to grow at
Chief Economist Lord Stern, author of the              2-3% per year under a BAU scenario. So to
Stern Review,9 makes it clear that to ignore           reduce emissions by 20 GtCO2e per year, as
rising carbon emissions that will result in            recommended by Stern, implies that a dramatic
dangerous climate change now, will damage              change is needed in production and
economic growth in the future. According to            consumption profile.11
the report, if no action is taken, the overall costs               Both policy makers and industry must
and risks of climate change will be equivalent to      initiate the rapid implementation of climate
losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product    solutions before average global temperatures
(GDP) each year. Not acting now                        move beyond a “tipping point” of no return.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The time for change
                                                 economy in the information age                          01/13




12
  EU Spring Summit, Brussels                     The political response                                  wealth. A number of studies have linked the
(March 2007).
13
                                                 Thirty-four countries have signed up to the             growth of ICT to global GDP growth and
     UK Climate Change Bill (April 2008).
14
                                                 legally binding Kyoto Protocol, the agreement           globalisation. One analysis16 suggests that a third
  Germany’s Integrated Energy and Climate
Programme (December 2007).
                                                 negotiated via the United Nations Framework             of the economic growth in the Organisation for
15
  China’s 11th Five -Year Economic Plan,
                                                 Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which            Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
www.gov.cn/english/special/115y_index.           sets a target for average global carbon emissions       countries between 1970 and 1990 was due to
htm
16
                                                 reductions of 5.4% relative to 1990 levels by           access to fixed-line telecoms networks alone,
   Roeller, Lars H. and Leonard Waverman,
(2001), ‘Telecommunications Infrastructure
                                                 2012. Discussions for a post-2012 agreement             which lowered transaction costs and helped firms
and Economic Growth: A Simultaneous              are currently underway.                                 to access new markets.
Approach’, American Economic Review,
Volume 91, Number 4, pp. 909-23.
                                                             Individual regions and countries have                   Globally, the ICT sector contributed
17
   Analysis includes data from Global Insight
                                                 also developed their own targets. In 2007, the          16% of GDP growth from 2002 to 2007 and
(www.globalinsight.com).                         European Union (EU) announced a 20% emissions           the sector itself has increased its share of GDP
18
   Waverman, Meschi and Fuss (2005)              reduction target compared to 1990 levels by 2020        worldwide from 5.8 to 7.3%. The ICT sector’s
‘The Impact of Telecoms on Economic Growth
in Developing Countries, Africa: The Impact
                                                 and will increase this to 30% if there is an            share of the economy is predicted to jump
of Mobile Phones’, Vodafone Policy Paper         international agreement post-2012.12 The UK is          further to 8.7% of GDP growth worldwide from
Series 2.
19
                                                 aiming for a reduction of 60% below 1990 levels         2007 to 2020.17
  Eggleston K., R. Jensen and R.
Zeckhauser (2002) ,‘Information and
                                                 by 2050, with an interim target of about half                       In low income countries, an average
Communication Technologies, Markets and          that.13 Germany is aiming for a 40% cut below           of 10 more mobile phone users per 100 people
Economic Development’, Discussion Papers
Series, 0203, Department of Economics,
                                                 1990 levels by 2020,14 while Norway will become         was found to stimulate a per capita GDP growth
Tufts University.                                carbon neutral by 2050. California’s climate            of 0.59%.18 In China, improved communication
20
   Jensen R. (2007), ‘The Digital Provide:       change legislation, known as AB 32, commits the         has helped increase wealth by driving down
Information (Technology), Market
Performance and Welfare in the South
                                                 state to 80% reductions below 1990 levels by            commodity prices, coordinating markets and
Indian Fisheries sector’, Quarterly Journal of   2050. China’s latest five-year plan (2006-2010)         improving business efficiency.19 In Kerala, India,
Economics, cited in: Economist, ‘To do with
the Price of Fish’, 10 May 2007, http://
                                                 contains 20% energy efficiency improvement              the introduction of mobile phones contributed
www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.          targets15 to try to reduce the impact of recent fuel    on average to an 8% rise in fishermen’s profits
cfm?story_id=9149142.
21
                                                 shortages on its economic growth.                       and a 4% fall in consumer prices.20
  Member companies of GeSI:
Alcatel-Lucent, Bell Canada, British
                                                             As governments across the world wake
Telecommunications plc, Cisco Systems,           up to the urgency of rising temperatures, they
Deutsche Telekom AG, Ericsson, European
Telecommunication Network Operators
                                                 are increasingly focusing on how business is              Scope, process and methodology
Association (ETNO), France Telecom, Fujitsu      responding to both reduce their carbon footprints         The study was undertaken by a unique
Siemens Computers, Hewlett-Packard,
Intel, KPN, Motorola, Microsoft, Nokia,
                                                 and to develop and supply the required                    partnership between not-for-profit
Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, Sun              innovations for a low carbon world.                       organisation The Climate Group and ICT sector
Microsystems, Telecom Italia, Telefónica
SA, US Telecom Association, Verizon,
                                                                                                           group GeSI.21 The supporting analysis was
Vodafone plc. Associate members: Carbon          What does this mean for business?                         conducted independently by international
Disclosure Project (CDP), WWF. Supporting
Organisations: ITU, Telecommunication
                                                 Companies must adapt quickly to the political,            management consultants McKinsey &
Development Bureau, UNEP Division of             social, economic and fiscal drive towards a global        Company. Input was provided by GeSI member
Technology, Industry and Economics.
                                                 low carbon economy. Businesses that can turn this         companies and the global experts consulted for
                                                 challenge into an opportunity, by developing              each of the case studies.
                                                 business models to enable adoption of low carbon                     The combined knowledge and
                                                 solutions, will be in a stronger position to mitigate     experience of this group has enabled us to
                                                 rising carbon emissions and adapt to a world              identify and quantify specific ICT impacts
                                                 dealing with the impacts of climate change.               and opportunities, in the context of carbon
                                                 A radical approach is required that incorporates          emission savings and potential economic
                                                 different ways of thinking, living, working,              value. In addition, the analysis drew on
                                                 playing, doing business and developing solutions.         additional data from the ICT companies
                                                 Action is no longer an option; it has become an           involved in the study. It estimated the likely
                                                 urgent necessity.                                         growth of the ICT sector’s carbon footprint
                                                                                                           and, more importantly, the carbon emissions
                                                 What does this mean for the ICT sector?                   savings and business opportunities that are
                                                 The terms “the new economy”, “the knowledge               possible when ICT is deployed across the
                                                 economy” and “the information society” all refer          economy. A detailed methodology can be
                                                 to the world’s increasing reliance on ICT to provide      found in Appendix 1.
                                                 services and solutions that ultimately generate
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The time for change
economy in the information age                         01/14




This demonstrates that the ICT sector continues        In order to approach the second and third              22
                                                                                                                 IEA (2008), Worldwide Trends in Energy
                                                                                                              Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from IEA
to play a vital role in the growth of the global       questions, it was important to know which sectors      Indicator Analysis, IEA/OECD, Paris.
economy and international development.                 are responsible for producing the highest levels of
As the imperative to develop zero carbon growth        carbon emissions and therefore where ICT might
solutions becomes stronger, society needs to           enable reductions. Of the total emissions from
lower emissions while continuing to serve the          human activity in 2002, 24% was from the power
needs of people in emerging economies, to              sector, 23% from industry, 17% from agriculture
develop poverty reduction schemes and enable           and waste management, 14% from land use,
multiple sectors across the world. What,               14% from transport and 8% from buildings.
therefore, are the next steps for ICT? Could           Taking another view of the same data – at the
it apply its creativity and skills to help reduce      point where electricity is consumed and fuel is
carbon emissions by massively enabling                 used – sharpens the focus further. In 2005,
efficiency or behaviour change? How big an             manufacturing was 33% of end use energy
impact could it have? And how will that affect         consumption, transport was 26% and households
its carbon footprint?                                  29% (other services and construction made up
                                                       the final 12%).22
The SMART way                                                      The findings of the analysis are highly
In order to understand and compare the direct          illuminating. Because of its pervasiveness, ICT
impact of ICT products and services and its            is a key, though often unrecognised, enabling
enabling role in climate change solutions, the         infrastructure in the global economy. The sector
analysis set out to answer three main questions:       can enable smart development opportunities for
                                                       CO2e reductions and participate in the new
1. What is the direct carbon footprint of the          sources of value of low or zero carbon solutions
   ICT sector?                                         markets at the same time as restricting the growth
2. What are the quantifiable emissions reductions      of its own carbon footprint.
   that can be enabled through ICT applications in                 Even as the sector tackles its own
   other sectors of the economy?                       carbon footprint, the need to mitigate climate
3. What are the new market opportunities for ICT       change presents opportunities for ICT to deliver
   and other sectors associated with realising these   low carbon energy efficiency solutions. The sector
   reductions?                                         has a unique ability to make energy consumption
                                                       and GHG emissions visible through its products
Because of growth in demand for its products and       and services. Radical transformation of
services, mainly from emerging economies and           infrastructure is possible only if it is known where
the rapid adoption in the developed world, the         inefficiency occurs throughout the processes and
ICT sector’s own carbon footprint is likely to grow    workflows of various sectors in the economy.
under BAU conditions to 1.4 GtCO2e by 2020,            ICT can provide this data which can be used to
three times what it was in 2002. Chapter 2 looks       change behaviours, processes, capabilities and
at the reasons for this growth, assesses what          systems. Although isolated efficiency gains do
can be done to reduce it and the hurdles that          have an impact, ultimately it will be a platform –
need to be overcome for the sector to attain           or a set of technologies – working coherently
maximum efficiency.                                    together, that will have the greatest impact.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                    The time for change
             economy in the information age                                         01/15




             Fig. 1 ICT impact: The global footprint and the
             enabling effect
             GtCO2e                                                                                                        Emissions
                                                                                                                           ICT footprint
                                                                                                                           Selected ICT-enabled
                                                                                                                           abatements
                                                                                                                           Other abatements†
2002                                                                                       40.0
                                                                                           ICT 0.5


2020                                                                                                             51.9
                                                                                                                 ICT 1.4
BAU
                                                                        -14.1*                       - 7.8            Five times
Abatements                                                                                                            ICT’s direct
                                                                                                                      footprint

2020 with                                                               30†
abatements


             * For example, avoided deforestation, wind power or biofuels
             † 21.9 GtCO2e abatements were identified in the McKinsey abatement cost curve and from estimates in this study. Source: Enkvist P., T.
             Naucler and J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 1




             This report has identified global emissions                            In Chapter 3, the report looks at five of the most
             reductions of 7.8 GtCO2e in 2020, five times its                       important “levers” or mitigation opportunities:
             own footprint (Fig.1).                                                 dematerialisation; smart motor systems in China;
                                                                                    smart logistics in Europe; smart buildings in North
              The ICT sector can enable emission reductions                         America; and smart grids in India. It considers the
             in a number of ways:                                                   impact of ICT on local and global emissions, where
                                                                                    ICT could have the most influence on emissions
             • Standardise: ICT can provide information in                          reductions, current markets, regulatory context
               standard forms on energy consumption and                             and hurdles that need to be overcome if its
               emissions, across sectors.                                           potential to reduce emissions is to be realised.
             • Monitor: ICT can incorporate monitoring                                         In parallel with the ICT reducing its
               information into the design and control for                          own carbon footprint, governments need to do
               energy use.                                                          more to create a fiscal and regulatory
             • Account: ICT can provide the capabilities and                        environment that will encourage faster and more
               platforms to improve accountability of energy                        widespread adoption of ICT. Crucially new
               and carbon.                                                          partnerships between governments and the
             • Rethink: ICT can offer innovations that                              private sector are required. Chapter 4 develops
               capture energy efficiency opportunities                              a framework for understanding the enabling
               across buildings/homes, transport, power,                            opportunity of ICT solutions.
               manufacturing and other infrastructure and
               provide alternatives to current ways of
               operating, learning, living, working and
               travelling.
             • Transform: ICT can apply smart and integrated
               approaches to energy management of systems
               and processes, including benefits from both
               automation and behaviour change and develop
               alternatives to high carbon activities, across all
               sectors of the economy.
Smart2020 English
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                     Taking direct action
                                                economy in the information age                                          02/17




                                                02: Taking direct action



23
  Gartner, ‘Green IT: The New Industry          In 2007, analyst Gartner released a statistic that                      developments outlined in the rest of the chapter
Shockwave’, Presentation at Symposium/
ITXPO conference, April 2007.
                                                the ICT sector was responsible for 2% of global                         are implemented, this figure looks set to grow at
24
   Of course a range of figures are possible,
                                                carbon emissions23 and this figure has since been                       6% each year until 2020. The carbon generated
but the report took a BAU scenario with the     widely cited. The analysis conducted for this                           from materials and manufacture is about one
best information available from companies
and public sources. See Appendix 1 for
                                                report came to similar conclusions. This chapter                        quarter of the overall ICT footprint, the rest
detailed methodology and Appendix 2 for         sets out in some detail how today’s 2% figure was                       coming from its use (Fig. 2.1).
the direct footprint assumptions.
                                                calculated and the assumptions behind the                                           Although there is expected growth in
25
   CIA (2007): World Factbook website,
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/
                                                growth in emissions expected in 2020, taking into                       mature developed markets, the most significant
the-world-factbook/print/ch.html                account likely efficient technology developments                        growth is attributable to increasing demand for
                                                that affect the power consumption of products                           ICT in developing countries (Fig. 2.2). Just one
                                                and services or their expected penetration in the                       in 10 people own a PC in China today; by 2020,
                                                market in 2020. Not all technology developments                         that will rise to seven in 10, comparable to current
                                                can be predicted and therefore further possible                         ownership rates in the US. In just 12 years time,
                                                abatements are discussed, but not calculated. The                       one in two Chinese people will own a mobile
                                                chapter concludes with a brief section on what                          phone and half of all households will be
                                                more could be done.                                                     connected by broadband. It will be a similar
                                                            In 2007, the total footprint of the ICT                     story in India. By 2020, almost a third of the
                                                sector – including personal computers (PCs) and                         global population will own a PC (currently one
                                                peripherals, telecoms networks and devices and                          in 50), 50% will own a mobile phone and one in
                                                data centres –was 830 MtCO2e, about 2% of the                           20 households will have a broadband
                                                estimated total emissions from human activity                           connection.24 Considering that the populations
                                                released that year. Even if the efficient technology                    of China and India are currently 1.3 billion25 and


                                                Fig. 2.1 The global ICT footprint*
                                                GtCO2e                                                                                               Embodied carbon
                                                                                                                                                     Footprint from use


                                     2002        0.11    0.41
                                                        0.43                                  0.53
                                                                                                                                 2% of total
                                                                                                                                 footprint

                                     2007        0.18        0.64                                                      0.83



                                     2020        0.35                             1.08                                                                                  1.43



                                     CAGR†
                                     +6%
                                                *ICT includes PCs, telecoms networks and devices, printers and data centres.
                                                †Compounded Annual Growth Rate
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                             Taking direct action
economy in the information age                                                  02/18




1.1 billion respectively26 and that consumption                                 measures, data centres will grow faster than any       26
                                                                                                                                            Ibid
in the Indian economy is expected to quadruple                                  other ICT technology, driven by the need for           27
                                                                                                                                         McKinsey Global Institute ‘China
in the next four years and the middle class in                                  storage, computing and other information               Consumer Demand Model, V2.0’.

China is expected to grow to over 80% of the                                    technology (IT) services. Though the telecoms
population by 2020,27 these are potentially                                     footprint continues to grow, it represents a smaller
huge growth areas.                                                              share of the total ICT carbon footprint in 2020 as
            By 2020, when a large fraction of                                   efficiency measures balance growth and as data
developing countries’ populations (up to 70%                                    centres rise to take a larger share of the total
in China) will be able to afford ICT devices and                                (Fig. 2.3).
will have caught up with developed countries’                                               The analysis below took a deeper look
ownership levels, they will account for more than                               at three main areas of the direct footprint: PCs
60% of ICT’s carbon emissions (compared to less                                 and peripherals, data centres, telecoms networks
than half today), driven largely by growth in                                   and devices, outlined below. Appendix 1 provides
mobile networks and PCs. But these are not the                                  more information about what was included in the
fastest-growing elements of the footprint. Despite                              scope of the analysis and Appendix 2 outlines the
first-generation virtualisation and other efficiency                            assumptions behind each in more detail.


Fig. 2.2 The global ICT footprint by geography
% of GtCO2e                                                                                                                                 RoW†          Other
                                                                                                                                            China         industrialised
                                                                                                                                            EiT*          countries
                                                                                                                                                          OECD Europe
2002       17      18        11   13   16    25                % of 0.53                                                                                  US and Canada

2007       23                23             12            10     14        20             % of 0.83



2020       27                                     29                                           10      7     12          14             % of 1.43



CAGR       9                                      9                                             6      3     4            3

%
          *EiT = Economies in transition. (includes Russia and non-OECD Eastern European countries)
          †RoW = Rest of the World. (includes India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and Egypt)




Fig. 2.3 The global footprint by subsector
Emissions by geography
% of GtCO2e                                                                                                                                 Telecoms, infrastructure
                                                                                                                                            and devices
                                                                                                                                            Data centres
                                                                                                                                            PCs, peripherals and printers*
2002       28           14        57                           % of 0.53



2007       37                          14        49                                       % of 0.83



2020       25                                         18              57                                                                % of 1.43



CAGR       5                                          7               5

%
          * Printers were 11% of the total ICT footprint in 2002, 8% in 2007 and will be 12% in 2020.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                    Taking direct action
                                                economy in the information age                                         02/19




                                                Fig. 3.1 The global footprint of PCs –
                                                desktops and laptops
                                                GtCO2e


                          2002                     0.2    0.2                                                                                    Embodied carbon
                                                                                                                                                 Footprint from use
                          Growth along           0.3            1.2                                  1.5                                      A Increased number of PCs from
                          current trends                                                                                                        592 million to 4067 million*
                                                                                                                                              B 0.23% pa increase in power consumed† and
                          Change in power                                                            0                                          decrease from 15W standby
                          consumption                                                                                                         C Switch in form factor from 84% desktops
                                                                                                                                                to 74% laptops and desktop monitors
                                                                                                                                                from 90% CRT to 100% LCD
                          Impacts of expected                         0.1 1.0                        1.1
                          technology
                          developments
                                                 0.2     0.5           0.6
                          2020
                          BAU

                                                * Based on Gartner estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020.
                                                † Based on McManus, T (2002), ‘Moore’s Law and PC Power’ presentation
                                                  to Tulane Engineering Forum.




28
  Printers were included in the overall         PCs and peripherals                                                   are expected to compensate for the increase in
analysis of the ICT footprint, but are not
broken down further in this section.
                                                In the developed world today, PCs (workstations,                      PC computing demand, represented by Row B,
29
  Analysis includes data from Shiffler,
                                                desktops and laptops) are almost as ubiquitous                        so that overall power consumption is not expected
G III. (2007), Forecast: PC Installed Base      in people’s homes as televisions (TVs). This is not                   to grow.
Worldwide, 2003-2011, Gartner.
                                                yet the case in the developing world, but the                                     However, two major technology
                                                explosion in the number of internet cafés                             developments are expected by 2020. First, the
                                                demonstrates that the demand is there.                                desktop PCs that dominate today’s market (84%)
                                                Growing middle classes in emerging economies,                         will be largely replaced by laptops if adoption
                                                whose newfound wealth will allow them to start                        materialises as forecasted – by 2020, 74% of all
                                                buying PCs at developed country rates, will                           PCs in use will be laptops. Second, all cathode ray
                                                substantially increase the global carbon footprint                    tube (CRT) screens will be replaced by low energy
                                                of these technologies.                                                alternatives, such as liquid crystal display (LCD)
                                                            In 2002, the PC and monitors’                             screens by 2020. These two factors explain the
                                                combined carbon footprint28 was 200 MtCO2e                            reduction in carbon footprint in Row C.
                                                and this is expected to triple by 2020 to 600                                     Taking Rows A, B and C together shows
                                                MtCO2e – a growth rate of 5% per annum (pa)                           that the 2020 footprint will rise to three times the
                                                (Fig. 3.1).                                                           emissions in 2002.29
                                                                                                                                  By 2020, laptops will have overtaken
                                                Calculating the PC footprint in 2020                                  desktops as the main source of emissions
                                                The number of PCs globally is expected to                             (Fig. 3.2) and will make up the largest portion
                                                increase from 592 million in 2002 to more than                        (22%) of the global ICT carbon footprint.
                                                four billion in 2020. Row A of Fig. 3.1. shows the                    Desktops with LCD monitors will represent 20%
                                                expected footprint if this growth used today’s                        of the total ICT footprint in 2020, an increase of
                                                PC technology. Since 1986, the power demand                           16% since 2002.
                                                for PCs has only increased at 0.23% pa, a low rate
                                                considering there has been a 45% pa improvement                        Reducing PC emissions further
                                                in computational power. This success has been                          To reduce the total carbon emissions of PCs
                                                achieved by the exploitation of multi-core                             predicted for 2020 to below 2002 levels would
                                                processors and more efficient power supply units.                      require a 95% efficiency improvement in the
                                                By 2020, further advances in power management                          overall impact from PCs. This cannot only be
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                     Taking direct action
economy in the information age                                          02/20




Fig. 3.2 Composition of the PC footprint
MtCO2e



2002                                  6%
                                             2%                        2020
100% = 247                                                             100% = 643
MtCO2e                                                                 MtCO2e
  Laptops                                                                 Desktops with
  (6 MtCO2e)                                                              CRT monitors
  Desktops with                                            91%            (0 MtCO2e)                  52%               48%
  LCD monitors                                                            Laptops
  (16 MtCO2e)                                                             (333 MtCO2e)
  Desktops with                                                           Desktops with
  CRT monitors                                                            LCD monitors
  (226 MtCO2e)                                                            (309 MtCO2e)




Desktops with CRT monitors represented                                 Laptops will represent 22% of the total ICT
44% of the total ICT footprint (91% of 49%).                           footprint (52% of 42%).

Desktops with LCD monitors and laptops                                 Desktops with LCD monitors will represent
represented 4% of the total ICT footprint                              20% of the total ICT footprint (48% of 42%).
(8% of 49%).




Fig. 4.1 The global data centre footprint
MtCO2e


                                                                                                                                 Use
2002                                        76                                                                                   Embodied

                                                                                                                              A Increased number of servers and
Growth along                                                                                    349                             their necessary power and cooling
current trends                                                                                                                  from 18 million to 122 million*
                                                                                                                              B No increase in power consumption
                                                                                                                                due to new generation technologies
Power                                                                                           0                               across server classes†
consumption                                                                                                                   C Savings from expected adoption
Impacts of expected                                                                                                             of measures (27% efficiency due
technology                                                                                      166                             to virtualisation and 18% due to
developments                                                                                                                    smart cooling and broad operating
                                                                                                                                temperature envelope )

2020                                                                      259

BAU

                        *Based on IDC estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020, excluding virtualisation.
                        †Power consumption per server kept constant over time.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                        Taking direct action
                                              economy in the information age                             02/21




30
     This category includes blade servers.    achieved through a combination of increased                collection of servers, storage devices, network
31
  Assessments based on data made              energy efficiency and longer product life, but will        equipment, power supplies, fans and other
available by GeSI companies for the
purposes of this report.
                                              necessitate changes comparable in scale to that            cooling equipment – which provide information
32
   The net zero increase shown in Row B
                                              enabled by the shift from desktops to laptops.             at our fingertips, supplying business, government,
is due to the adoption of volume servers                  There could also be breakthrough               academia and consumers around the world.
which incorporate technologies such as
multi-core/multi-threading microprocessors
                                              technologies around the corner that would                              In 2002, the global data centre
with more sophisticated power-state           transform how PCs use energy. Examples include             footprint, including equipment use and embodied
sensing and management. Additionally, the
rapid adoption of newer processor micro-
                                              solid state hard drives, which could reduce energy         carbon, was 76 MtCO2e and this is expected to
architectures has refreshed the installed     consumption by up to 50%, choleristic LCD                  more than triple by 2020 to 259 MtCO2e – making
base of servers with a more power-efficient
silicon transistor technology.
                                              screens that reduce monitor energy consumption             it the fastest-growing contributor to the ICT
33
  IDC analysis predicts 83 million servers
                                              by up to 80% and direct methanol fuel cells that           sector’s carbon footprint, at 7% pa in relative
will be needed in 2020 if virtualisation      can deliver 20% savings for power supplies.                terms (Fig. 4.1).
effects are included.
                                                          Other areas of research such as
                                              quantum and optical computing could also have a            Calculating the data centre footprint in 2020
                                              substantial impact. These have not been factored           If growth continues in line with demand, the
                                              into the carbon emission calculations because              world will be using 122 million servers in 2020,
                                              their impact within the timeframe is uncertain.            up from 18 million today. In addition to this 9%
                                                                                                         pa increase in server numbers, there will be a shift
                                              Data centres                                               from high-end servers (mainframes) to volume
                                              In the “information age” there is a vast amount            servers,30 the least expensive kind of server that
                                              of data that is stored and instantly made available        can handle much of the computational needs of
                                              upon request. Users of these data range from               businesses. Row A of Fig. 4.1 shows the increase
                                              companies complying with the recent Sarbanes–              in footprint that would be expected by simply
                                              Oxley accounting data legislation to consumers             scaling up today’s data centre technology without
                                              watching YouTube videos, to the processing and             the application of virtualisation technologies in
                                              storage capabilities required for climate change           data centres.
                                              modelling. This has led to a vast increase in the                      Power consumption differs by server
                                              number of data centres – buildings that house a            type but, like PCs, no increase in overall


                                              Fig. 4.2 Composition of data centre footprint
                                              Global data centre emissions %



                                              2002                                                       2020
                                              100% = 76                          17%                     100% = 259                         18%
                                              MtCO2e                                                     MtCO2e
                                                                                                   36%
                                                Volume servers                                             Volume servers
                                                (27 MtCO2e)                                                (136 MtCO2e)
                                                                                                                                                       52%
                                                Cooling systems                                            Cooling systems
                                                (24 MtCO2e)                                                (70 MtCO2e)                21%
                                                Power systems              32%                             Power systems
                                                (13 MtCO2e)                                                (62 MtCO2e)
                                                Mid-range servers                                          Storage systems
                                                (5 MtCO2e)                                                 (18 MtCO2e)                        7%
                                                                                                   6%
                                                Storage systems                            5% 3%           High end servers
                                                (4 MtCO2e)                                                 (5 MtCO2e)
                                                High end servers                                           Mid-range servers                  1% 1%
                                                (2 MtCO2e)                                                 (2 MtCO2e)


                                              Volume servers represented 5% of the total                 Volume servers will represent 9% of the
                                              ICT footprint (36% of 14%).                                total ICT footprint (52% of 18%).

                                              Data centre cooling systems represented 4%                 Data centre cooling systems will represent
                                              of the total ICT footprint (32% of 14%).                   4% of the total ICT footprint (21% of 18%).
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Taking direct action
economy in the information age                         02/22




consumption is expected in the coming years,           down the air conditioning. Similarly, in climates      34
                                                                                                                 Estimates based on Koomey, J.G. (2007),
                                                                                                              ‘Estimated Total Power Consumption
in spite of increased processing demand.31             where the outside temperature allows, simply           by Servers in the U.S. and the World’,
This is due mainly to new technologies in all          directing external air into the data centre can save   http://enterprise.amd.com/Downloads/
                                                                                                              svrpwrusecompletefinal.pdf.
types of servers32 and explains the net zero           cooling costs for much of the year. By allowing the
                                                                                                              35
                                                                                                                 Uptime Institute and McKinsey &
change in Row B.                                       temperature of the data centre to fluctuate along      Company (2008), Revolutionizing Data
            A major trend driving down the overall     a broader operating temperature range, a 24%           Center Efficiency—Key Analyses, http://
                                                                                                              uptimeinstitute.org/content/view/168/57
growth in the footprint of data centres (Row C) is     reduction in energy consumption from cooling is
virtualisation – pooling assets such as computing      possible. Distributing low voltage direct current
and storage where utilisation is low, so they can      (DC) into the data centre would eliminate the
be used across the enterprise and beyond.              need for mechanical back-up, uninterruptible
Virtualisation represents a radical rethinking of      power supply units.
how to deliver the services of data centres,                       By 2020, the net footprint for data
pooling resources that are underutilised and could     centres is predicted to be 259 MtCO2e. At this
reduce emissions by 27% – equivalent to 111            point, volume servers will represent more than
MtCO2e.33 Technologies are also available to detect    50% of the data centre footprint (174 MtCO2e)
where within the data centre temperatures are          and cooling systems for data centres alone will
running high and to direct cooling to those areas      amount to 4% of the total ICT footprint (Fig. 4.2).
thus delivering a 12% reduction in cooling costs.
By 2020, the analysis predicted that these             Reducing data centre emissions further
measures could achieve an approximate 18%              Additional emission reductions not included in
reduction (55 MtCO2e) in consumption.                  the current 2020 BAU scenario are possible.
            Only about half of the energy used by      Complete adoption of the cooling technologies
data centres powers the servers and storage; the       noted above would result in additional savings
rest is needed to run back-up, uninterruptible         of 65 MtCO2e in 2020.
power supplies (5%) and cooling systems (45%).34                   Higher adoption rates of virtualisation
There are a number of ways to reduce this energy       architectures and low energy cooling would help
overhead, some of which are expected to be             achieve step changes in efficiency. Current
adopted by 2020. The simplest way is to turn           utilisation rates of servers, storage and other


Fig. 5 Global telecoms footprint
(devices and infrastructure)
Global telecoms emissions %



2002                                                   2020
100% = 151                           12%               100% = 349                         15%
                                                                                                  20%
MtCO2e                                                 MtCO2e
  Mobile                                         42%     Mobile
  (66 MtCO2e)                                            (179 MtCO2e)
  Fixed narrowband                    91%                Fixed narrowband                               14%
  (64 MtCO2e)                                            (70 MtCO2e)
  Telecom devices            43%                         Telecom devices
  (18 MtCO2e)                                            (51 MtCO2e)
  Fixed broadband                                        Fixed broadband                  51%
  (4 MtCO2e)                                             (49 MtCO2e)
                                            3%


Mobile phones represented 3% of the total              Mobile phones will represent 1% of the
ICT footprint (11% of 30%).                            total ICT footprint (6% of 25%).

Fixed broadband represented 1% of the                  Mobile phones will represent 13% of the
total ICT footprint (3% of 30%).                       total ICT footprint (51% of 25%)

                                                       Fixed broadband will represent 4% of the
                                                       total ICT footprint (14% of 25%)
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Taking direct action
                                              economy in the information age                         02/23




                                              assets in the data centre worldwide are low            Telecoms infrastructure and devices
                                              (6% average server utilisation, 56% facility           Increased mobile phone and internet use over
                                              utilisation) and vary dramatically depending           the past few years has driven a parallel increase
                                              on the installation.35 If, for example, a 20%          in telecoms infrastructure. Fixed-line,
                                              reduction below 2002 emission levels were to           narrowband and voice accounts are expected to
                                              be achieved, this would entail an increase in          remain fairly constant overall, but the number
                                              efficiency of 86% globally. Though it may be           of broadband accounts – operated by both
                                              possible to achieve 86% efficiency in one data         telecoms and cable operators37 – will more than
                                              centre by more efficient virtualisation                double 2007-2020 and mobile accounts38 will
                                              architectures and changing the data centre             almost double during the same period. From
                                              location to reduce cooling needs, adoption of          2002, the growth in telecoms emissions has
                                              best practice has its challenges. And although         grown from 150 MtCO2e in 2002 to 300 MtCO2e
36
  Green Grid data centre efficiency metrics   the cost of energy is high, companies are not          in 2007 and is expected to reach 350 MtCO2e
such as power usage effectiveness (PUE)
and data centre infrastructure efficiency
                                              often organised so that the person paying for          in 2020.
(DCiE) can help operators improve             the IT equipment is also paying for the energy                    The relative share of telecoms devices
efficiency and reduce costs, http://www.
thegreengrid.org/
                                              consumption of that equipment.                         remains fairly constant, but the mobile network
37
  Cable accounts providing broadband but
                                                          However there is a significant             will come to dominate the overall telecoms
not cable TV.                                 consolidation trend that may help in dealing           footprint by 2020 (Fig. 5).
38
  Mobile analysis includes both voice         with the existing or legacy data centre impact.
and data. It includes a range of existing
technologies, GSM, CDMA, EDGE, 3G, etc.
                                              Also, organisational attitudes are changing as         Telecoms devices
                                              costs of operating a data centre surpass the initial   The use of mobile phones, chargers, internet
                                              investment in equipment and as the data centre         protocol TV (IPTV) boxes and home broadband
                                              operation becomes a larger share of a company’s        routers is set to increase over the next 12 years,
                                              overall energy costs. Companies now have a             due in the most part to growth in China and India,
                                              number of options for computing services, which        where the middle classes will catch up with the
                                              shift costs from the enterprise to an external         current telecoms penetration of developed
                                              provider that can potentially deliver these            countries. The telecoms devices global footprint
                                              capabilities with economies of scale and at higher     was 18 MtCO2e in 2002 and is expected to
                                              energy efficiency. The “software as a service”         increase almost threefold to 51 MtCO2e by 2020,39
                                              business model allows companies to access key          driven mainly by rises in the use of broadband
                                              enterprise applications such as customer               modems/routers and IPTV boxes, which will
                                              relationship management databases or                   expand from a small user base (Fig. 6).
                                              collaboration tools via a web browser, with
                                              no need to host their own data centre facilities.      Calculating the telecoms devices’ footprint
                                              Companies can also pay to use server space             in 2020
                                              on demand to build their own applications and          In 2002, there were 1.1 billion mobile accounts.
                                              websites, the way one would pay monthly for            This is set to increase to 4.8 billion in 2020 and is
                                              electricity or water, known as ‘utility                the largest source of global telecom footprint
                                              computing’. These are both simple examples of          emissions. Increased access to broadband will also
                                              what is more generally called ‘cloud computing’,       have an impact – the number of routers will grow
                                              centralised and highly scalable services that          from 67 million in 2002 to 898 million in 2020.
                                              could lead to further capacity to virtualise or        Increasingly, broadband is also accessed over IPTV
                                              consolidate resources with breakthrough gains          boxes. Although none of these was sold in 2002,
                                              in energy efficiency.                                  if current trends continue 385 million may be in
                                                          Predicting the pace and intensity of       use by 2020.40 The total impact of these increases
                                              these virtualisation trends is difficult, but the      is set out in Row A of Fig. 6.
                                              industry is well aware of the huge efficiency                       The majority of emissions from mobile
                                              opportunity. Initiatives such as the Green Grid,       devices come from standby mode, the power
                                              a global consortium dedicated to data centre           (sometimes known as phantom power) used by
                                              efficiency and information service delivery,           chargers that are plugged in but not in use.
                                              working towards new operating standards                             Unlike PCs and data centres, the overall
                                              and best practices, has attracted support from         consumption of telecoms devices is set to decrease
                                              the industry.36                                        over the 2020 timeframe because ‘smart chargers’
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                      Taking direct action
economy in the information age                                           02/24




Fig. 6 The global telecoms devices footprint
MtCO2e



                    IPTV                            Broadband                        Mobile                                                                 Use
                    boxes                           modems                           phones                                                                 Embodied

 2002               0                               11 2                              3 13              16



 Growth along        6      14             20         8       13              21                        9         40                                 50
 current trends

 Change in power                 9         9                            5     5                              44                                      44
 consumption


 2020                6      5    11                   9        9         18           12           10         22

 BAU

                    A Increased number of mobiles 1.1 billion to 4.8 billion, routers from 67 million to 898 million and IPTV boxes from 0 to 385 million

                    B Power consumption decreases due to smart chargers and 1W standby




(those that turn off when a device is not                                Telecoms infrastructure                                                       39
                                                                                                                                                          Analysis included data from; Schaefer C.,
                                                                                                                                                       C. Weber and A. Voss (2003), ‘Energy usage
connected) and 1W (or lower) standby standards                           As the demand for telecoms devices grows so,                                  of mobile telephone services in Germany’,
are rapidly becoming commonplace. The footprint                          inevitably, will the need for the infrastructure that                         Energy, Volume 28, Issue 5, pp411-420;
                                                                                                                                                       Bertoldi, Paulo (2007), ‘European Code
of mobile phones therefore increases 4%, given                           supports it. This growth is due not only to                                   of Conduct for Broadband Equipment’,
that a sharp decrease in charger consumption                             increases in the number of broadband and mobile                               European Commission DG JRC, http://
                                                                                                                                                       www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-t/oth/09/05/
offsets the growth in number of accounts.                                accounts in emerging economies, but is also to the                            T09050000010004PDFE.pdf
Broadband routers and IPTV boxes increase their                          sharing of videos and games and other peer-to-                                40
                                                                                                                                                          Figures based on Yankee Group and
footprint comparatively more thanks to higher                            peer content exchange.                                                        IDC estimates and McKinsey trend
                                                                                                                                                       extrapolation. Embodied carbon from
penetration from a small base today (Row B).                                        The telecoms infrastructure footprint,                             manufacturing and distribution estimated
            Mobile phones will contribute a                              including ongoing energy use and carbon                                       from manufacturer studies for mobile
                                                                                                                                                       phones and from laptop comparisons for
smaller share of the telecoms devices’ footprint                         embodied in the infrastructure, was 133 MtCO2e                                other devices.
in 2020, if predicted power consumption                                  in 2002. This is expected to more than double to
reductions from smart chargers and standby                               299 MtCO2e by 2020, a growth rate of 5% pa41
modes materialise.                                                       (Fig. 7).

Reducing telecoms devices’ emissions further                             Calculating the telecoms infrastructure
The footprint of telecoms devices can be reduced                         footprint in 2020
further if devices produce fewer emissions in                            A key contributor to carbon emissions in 2020
manufacturing, or if less – and greener –                                will be mobile networks, driven largely by the
electricity is used by the device during its lifetime.                   increase in base stations and mobile switching
Attractive offers that allow service upgrades                            centres. However, emissions from networks
without trading the phone in are already                                 cannot be calculated based on the hardware used
increasing the life of the mobile device itself.                         in the network alone, nor were data available
Some companies have announced that they will                             from each provider on specifically how much
experiment with more custom ordering of phones,                          energy their networks consumed. Therefore, the
so that only the requested features are built into                       analysis used the reported energy consumption
the physical device, lowering the carbon                                 of eight telecoms providers and the increased
emissions that are due to manufacturing.                                 number of mobile, fixed and broadband accounts
                                                                         – from 2.3 billion in 2002 to 7 billion in 2020 –
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                      Taking direct action
                                             economy in the information age                                           02/25




                                             Fig. 7 The global telecoms infrastructure footprint
                                             MtCO2e



                                                                                                                                             Use
                                                                                                                                             Embodied
                           2002               45       88                133



                           Growth along                                 86              170                                256
                           current trends

                           Change in power                                                              30     60          90
                           consumption and
                           embodied carbon

                           2020               101                 198                                    299

                           BAU

                                             A Increased number of accounts from 2.3 billion to 7 billion (fixed, broadband and mobile)*

                                             B Decrease in power consumption and embodied carbon due to expected adoption of efficiency measures

                                             *Based on Yankee estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020.



                                             to calculate the overall footprint of the network.                       the impact of the adoption of interconnected
                                             The total was 256 MtCO2e: see Row A of Fig. 7.                           devices and the network services they deliver.
                                                          The uncertainty in the telecoms figures                     This will enable them to plan for significant
                                             is worth noting. Looking at the eight providers,                         energy efficiency improvement. The analysis
                                             the analysis found a wide range in the energy                            therefore took expected growth in the number of
                                             consumed per subscriber per year – anywhere                              consumer connections as a proxy for growth
                                             from 23 kWh to 109 kWh, even when the                                    across the entire telecoms network.
                                             composition of services offered by the operator                                     Overall, a decrease in power
                                             was similar.42                                                           consumption of telecoms networks per user is
                                                          There could be a number of reasons for                      expected, owing to the adoption of efficiency
                                             this. First, the operators offering similar services                     measures and is included in the 2020 footprint.
                                             may configure their networks differently. They                           For example, mobile infrastructure technologies
42
   A figure of 50kWh per year per            may also outsource parts of the network that                             currently available include network optimisation
subscriber was therefore used to calculate   consume energy, including the entire transmission                        packages which can reduce energy consumption
the footprint.
43
  Abatements included network
                                             and switching components of the network in the                           by 44% and solar-powered base stations, which
optimisation packages (44% reduction in      case of virtual operators and therefore don’t                            could reduce carbon emissions by 80%.43 The
energy consumption possible, 80% expected    report on the energy consumption of external                             expected adoption of these measures by 2020
adoption by 2020), more efficient base
station amplifiers (9% reduction in energy   providers along their value chain. In addition, the                      would lead to the avoidance of almost 60 MtCO2e
consumption possible, 50% expected           energy consumption of some network providers is                          in 2020 (Row B).
adoption by 2020), advanced standby
power management (15% reduction in           dominated by services offered to businesses and                                     Figures from one European telecoms
energy consumption possible, 50% expected    governments rather than consumers.                                       company show that electricity use per
adoption by 2020), night battery operation
(50% reduction in energy consumption                      In general, the distribution of energy                      information unit decreased between 2003 and
possible, 10% expected adoption by 2020)     consumption within the telecoms network is                               2005 by 39% pa but this has been more than
and solar-powered base stations (81%
reduction in energy consumption possible,    poorly understood and the impact of further                              negated by an increase in bandwidth
10% expected adoption by 2020).              adoption of interconnected devices is unknown.                           requirements of 50% annually.
.                                            However, telecom operators are beginning to use                                     This will continue to be the case:
                                             new network management tools to better                                   expected significant improvements in the energy
                                             understand the distribution of energy                                    efficiency of base stations, routers, switches and
                                             consumption within the telecoms network,                                 other network infrastructure equipment are
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                  Taking direct action
economy in the information age                       02/26




unlikely to compensate for the increase in overall   Next generation networks (NGN) were not
demand. Therefore, though total energy use and       explicitly included in the analysis as there was
associated emissions will continue to rise, it is    little consistent data globally on NGN energy
decoupled from the growth in users of the            reductions. But in some countries, NGN will be
equipment.                                           rolled out before 2020, which could change the
                                                     projections in this section. In addition, there is
Reducing telecoms infrastructure                     currently a lot of discussion over next generation
emissions further                                    access (NGA). This essentially means providing
Further abatements are possible that are not         faster fixed-line access over fibre optics, rather
included in the current 2020 BAU scenario. For       than copper, all the way to customer premises.
example, if the technologies discussed above were    Again there was insufficient whole life data to
100% adopted, an additional saving of 42 MtCO2e      include this in the analysis. Over time both these
could be achieved in 2020. However, it is not        technologies could deliver further carbon
always possible to implement these technologies      reduction, but there could be an increase in
at scale. For example, it is not currently cost      emissions over the transition period.
effective to implement night battery operation                   Additional emissions abatement could
and solar-powered base stations can be used only     be realised by changing the network design to
in certain climates.                                 optimise overall network consumption and by
            Natural ventilation is already being     rolling out the most energy and carbon-efficient
used by some operators and would reduce the          network architecture available today. Older
need to cool the base station and core network       networks in developed countries continue to
equipment. In addition, companies are                be supported; however, this is not the case in
experimenting with “network sharing”, which          the emerging markets where greenfield and
reduces the need to construct new networks,          “leapfrogging” technology adoption needs to be
and tracking the energy consumption reduction        geared to low carbon infrastructure. The full
benefits. Clarification on best practices in these   potential of the best available technology today is
areas is expected.                                   unlikely to be realised without cost incentives for
                                                     consumers or other types of policy intervention.
  Green power generation
  The direct carbon footprint of the ICT sector      The challenge of reducing the ICT
  is dominated by electricity consumption, so        sector’s footprint
  an obvious way to reduce emissions is to use       The invention of the transistor in the 1950s
  as much electricity as possible from               marked the dawn of the digital age. It introduced
  renewable sources.                                 personal computing on the one hand and high-
              ICT companies can do this by           capacity, fixed and mobile telecommunications on
  purchasing renewable electricity, by installing    the other. The convergence of these technologies
  renewable generation on their sites and by         is most evident in the ubiquitous internet.
  making renewable electricity integral to their                 In 1965 Gordon Moore observed that
  products.                                          the density of transistors in integrated circuits
              The sector can also encourage          was doubling every 18 months. Now famously
  policy makers to create the right regulatory       known as Moore’s Law, this phenomenon has
  and fiscal environment to encourage                continued to the present day and has meant that
  investment in large-scale renewable                the energy consumption per bit of information
  generation as this will ultimately lead to a       processed or transmitted has fallen by many
  reduction in the ‘in use’ phase of the ICT         orders of magnitude.
  product life cycle.                                            However, absolute growth in the use of
              In fact, as outlined in Chapter 3      digital technologies in developed world economies
  (smart grids), the sector is uniquely placed to    has led to an ever - increasing carbon footprint.
  partner with power companies to optimise           And, as this analysis shows, without major
  the existing electricity grid to allow more        paradigm shifts in technological development,
  efficient power distribution and enable the        the growth in both usage and footprint is likely
  use of more renewable or green power.              to continue as more and more people worldwide
                                                     enter the digital age.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                  Taking direct action
                                             economy in the information age                       02/27




                                             As this analysis shows, without major paradigm
                                             shifts in technological development, the growth
                                             in both usage and footprint is likely to continue
                                             as more and more people worldwide enter the
                                             digital age.


44
  Green Electronics Council’s standard for   In the course of this study it became apparent       not include maximum efficiency as part of
PCs that goes beyond Energy Star.
                                             that it is easier to identify the carbon footprint   their buying specification.
                                             of an individual piece of ICT hardware such as                    Once more is known about the
                                             a mobile phone, or even a dedicated collection       performance of products and services, the
                                             of technology capabilities, such as a data centre,   next step is to improve them. There may be
                                             than it is complex and converged network             technological or market reasons why this
                                             services – such as broadband – delivered to          remains a challenge. For example, constant
                                             consumers, businesses and government.                radical innovation is required to keep making
                                             Creating a standardised methodology for the          processors more efficient. Some efficiency
                                             evaluation of whole life carbon footprints of both   gains could be made outside companies’ direct
                                             ICT products and services would provide better       control – in supply chains for instance – but
                                             information to businesses and customers.             there is a lack of understanding about how to
                                             In turn, this would help create customer pull        achieve these.
                                             for clean technology which would drive                            Companies may be able to increase the
                                             further innovation.                                  energy efficiency of devices at little or moderate
                                                          Although ICT offers many ways of        additional cost, but there is little point if
                                             reducing emissions in other sectors, the sheer       consumers can’t assess which products are the
                                             scale of the challenge involved in stabilising the   most efficient. Work in this area is ongoing -
                                             climate means that the sector also needs to step     PC labelling schemes such as Energy Star and
                                             up its efforts in reducing its direct footprint.     Electronic Product Environmental Assessment
                                             Whilst much has been done and some ambitious         Tool (EPEAT)44 in the US help. This report cannot
                                             targets have already been set by a number of         detail all the activities currently underway, but
                                             companies, (Appendix 4) the urgency of the           the surge in interest in “Green IT” over recent
                                             situation calls for the ICT industry to use all of   months is likely to bring many more options for
                                             its high-technology creativity to reduce the         businesses and consumers.
                                             energy consumption of its products and services                   But while efficiency of the ICT sector’s
                                             as much as it can.                                   own products must be actively pursued, the
                                                          There are a number of barriers          impact on the overall economy – in energy
                                             preventing the ICT sector from making further        efficiency and dematerialisation – could yield
                                             efficiency gains.                                    emissions savings that are five times larger than
                                                          One of the biggest challenges is        its own footprint, close to 8 GtCO2e, if all enabling
                                             overcoming the lack of information about the         opportunities are adopted. Communications
                                             emissions impacts of products and services,          technologies and services would provide an
                                             especially in the context of complex                 enabling platform that systematically delivers
                                             configurations and integration. In the case of       efficiency and replaces high - carbon activities
                                             telecoms networks, telecoms providers often          with alternatives wherever possible. Realising
                                             don’t know the energy consumption of                 this opportunity is a different sort of challenge,
                                             specific services. There are also agency issues      as it involves cross-sectoral partnerships and
                                             to overcome. For example, the person buying          new business models, but will be a crucial
                                             the company’s servers may not be responsible         component of the transition to a low
                                             for their operating costs and therefore may          carbon economy.
Smart2020 English
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The enabling effect
                                                 economy in the information age                         03/29




                                                 03: The enabling effect



45
   A number of studies in the past decade        The ICT sector has a powerful role to play in          detail regarding the regulatory and market
have looked at the role of ICT (particularly,
broadband, IT services and mobile
                                                 addressing climate change by enabling other            context for realising the emissions reductions.
communications) in energy efficiency and         sectors, such as transport, buildings, power and
climate change solutions including: their
effects on the productivity of the economy;
                                                 industry, to become more efficient.45 Although         Dematerialisation
their ability to replace high carbon products    the ICT sector’s own emissions will rise as global     Dematerialisation – the substitution of high
and activities with alternatives; and their
role in monitoring and environmental
                                                 demand for products and services increases,            carbon products and activities with low
management. Though far from an                   these are estimated to be five times less than         carbon alternatives e.g. replacing face-to-face
exhaustive list, see for example: Laitner,
S (2008), Information and Communication
                                                 the emissions that can be reduced through the          meetings with videoconferencing, or paper with
Technologies: The Power of Productivity,         “enabling effect.”                                     e-billing – could play a substantial role in
American Council for an Energy Efficient
Economy (ACEEE); Romm, J (1999) The
                                                             To realise this opportunity will require   reducing emissions.
Internet Economy and Global Warming,             a radical transformation of current infrastructure:                Fig. 8 shows that dematerialisation
The Global Environment and Technology
Foundation (GETF); Pamlin, D. And K.
                                                 companies will need to identify and monitor            could be responsible for reducing emissions by
Szomolanyi (2006) Saving the Climate @           energy use and employ the data obtained to             500MtCO2e (detailed assumptions in Appendix 3),
the Speed of Light, WWF and ETNO;
Mallon, K. (2007), Towards a High-
                                                 become more efficient and ultimately transform         just less than Australia’s total emissions in 2005.47
Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future:                    the way they operate throughout value chains,          However, as in all cases, there is some
Telecommunications-based Opportunities to
Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate
                                                 cities, regions and whole countries. ICT underpins     uncertainty about the exact emissions reduction
Risk and Telstra; Fuhr, J.P. and S.B. Pociask,   many of these mechanisms.                              figure because of the unpredictability of
(2007), Broadband Services: Economic and
Environmental Benefits, The American
                                                             This report is the first to put a value    technology adoption and development. For
Consumer Institute; ITU (2008), ICTs for         on the global opportunity. It found that ICT           instance, the “paperless” office has failed to
e-Environment.
46
                                                 could reduce global carbon emissions by 7.8            materialise and telecommuting and first-
  Additional opportunities (e.g. forestry
monitoring applications) in other areas
                                                 GtCO2e by 2020 (from an assumed total of 51.9          generation videoconferencing have not been
where emissions are high – such as land use      GtCO2e if we remain on a BAU trajectory), an           adopted as widely as expected. On the other
– could increase the mitigation potential,
but because of the much greater complexity
                                                 amount five times larger than its own carbon           hand, dematerialisation could have a larger
involved they were not included in the           footprint. Savings from avoided electricity and        than predicted impact from other future
analysis.
47
                                                 fuel consumption would reach ¤600 billion              technological breakthroughs, not yet identified,
   Australian Government Department of
Climate Change (2008), National Inventory
                                                 ($946.5 billion). Fig. 8 shows the opportunity         that substantially change the way people live
Report 2005 (Revised) – Volume 1;                ICT has to reduce emissions by sector.                 and work.
The Australian Government Submission to
the UN Framework Convention on Climate
                                                             This chapter looks at five major                       Like e-commerce, e-government
Change, http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/            opportunities for reducing emissions –                 could have a significant impact on reducing
inventory/
                                                 dematerialisation, smart motor systems, smart          GHG emissions through the dematerialisation
                                                 logistics, smart buildings and smart grids – and       of public service delivery – particularly in
                                                 in each case identifies the role for ICT and the       countries where government constitutes a large
                                                 hurdles to be overcome if the full potential is to     share of the overall economy. For example,
                                                 be realised.46 These opportunities were chosen         many paper-based services can be moved into
                                                 based on the potential for ICT to drive emissions      the digital environment and situations where
                                                 reductions in key regions around the world where       face-to-face interaction has been previously
                                                 the best data were available.                          required (e.g. to prove identity) can be done
                                                             Aside from dematerialisation, which        virtually. There are also major energy efficiency
                                                 this report looks at in a global context, a specific   gains to be achieved in the governmental supply
                                                 region was chosen to demonstrate the other             chain. While many countries have already begun
                                                 opportunities. This was done to provide further        to implement e-government, the huge potential
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                                   The enabling effect
economy in the information age                                                        03/30




Fig. 8 ICT: The enabling effect
                                                                                                                                 1.68
                                                                                                                                      S
GtCO2e                                                                                                                                    mar
                                                                                                                                              tb   uild
                                                                                                                                                        i   ng
                                                                                                                                                              s


                                                                            ics                                      0.22



                                                                      ist
7.8 GtCO2e of ICT-enabled
                                                                  log
                                                                                                   1.30
abatements are possible out of                                 art
                                                             Sm

the total BAU emissions in 2020
                                                              2
                                                           1.5




(51.9 GtCO2e)                                                                                                                                                1.68


The SMART opportunities
                                                                                                  Transport
including dematerialisation                                                0.5                                                       Buildings
were analysed in depth                                                                                         2.2
                                                                                                                               2.4
  Industry                                                           0.14
  Smart motors                                                                                                                                                      0.22
  Industrial process automation                                    0.16
  Dematerialisation* (reduce production
  of DVDs, paper)




                                                                                                                                                                           2.03 Sm
                                                    0.1                                                       1.1                                                   0.28
  Transport                                                                                                           2.1
  Smart logistics                                                                                 Industry




                                                                                                                                                                                  art g
                                                     ses




  Private transport optimisation
                                                                             0.68
                                                 oces




                                                                                                                                                                           id           r
  Dematerialisation (e-commerce,
  videoconferencing, teleworking)                                                                                           Power
                                                             pr
                                                        rial




  Efficient vehicles (plug-ins and smart cars)
                                                    ust




  Traffic flow monitoring, planning
                                                                      nd




  and simulation                                                                           0.29
                                                                    di




                                                                                                                                            1.75
                                                                  an




  Buildings
                                                              ors




  Smart logistics†
                                                            ot




                                                                                                               0.4
                                                                      m




  Smart buildings                                                             rt
  Dematerialisation (teleworking)                                           ma
                                                                                      7S   0.1
  Smart grid‡                                                                      0.9

  Power
  Smart grid
  Efficient generation of power,
  combined heat and power (CHP)                  *Dematerialisation breaks down into all sectors except power. See detailed assumptions in Appendix 3.
                                                 †Reduces warehousing space needed through reduction in inventory. See Appendix 3.
                                                 ‡Reduces energy used in the home through behaviour change. See Appendix 3.




of the low carbon public sector model remains                                         Currently the largest opportunity identified
significantly untapped.                                                               within dematerialisation is teleworking – where
           Various dematerialisation applications                                     people work from home rather than commute into
where the most data were available are looked at                                      an office. Although other dematerialisation
below to identify the opportunities for mitigating                                    opportunities may come to prominence in the
emissions and the hurdles that prevent this                                           future, based on historic trends, the analysis
potential from being realised.                                                        found that teleworking would have the largest
                                                                                      impact, up to 260 MtCO2e savings each year
The opportunity                                                                       (detailed assumptions in Appendix 3). For
Dematerialisation can be applied to a range of                                        example, in the US, if up to 30 million people
current everyday practices and ultimately reduce                                      could work from home, emissions could be
the number of material objects that need to be                                        reduced 75-100 MtCO2e in 2030, comparable to
produced. Online billing, media and music,                                            likely reductions from other measures such as
replacing paper and CDs all, reduce the emissions                                     fuel efficient vehicles.48
associated with their manufacture and                                                             External case studies seem to bear
distribution. Fig. 9 shows the impacts of these                                       this out, but are not globally conclusive.49
technologies on global emissions.                                                     A UK Department of Transport study found
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                               The enabling effect
                                              economy in the information age                                    03/31




                                              Fig 9. The impact of dematerialisation
                                              GtCO2e



                                              Total of 0.46 out of                        0.02
                                              BAU 51.9 GtCO2e in                                 0.03
                                              2020
                                                                                                         0.07
                                                Online media
                                                E-commerce
                                                E-paper
                                                Videoconferencing       0.26
                                                Telecommuting
                                                                                                        0.08




                                              Source: Expert interviews, January-March 2008



48
   Comparison based on abatement potential    that teleworking reduces the commuting car                        Dematerialisation could also reduce emissions
as outline in Enkvist P., T. Naucler and
J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for         mileage travelled by teleworkers by 48-77%                        indirectly by influencing employees’ behaviour,
Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey       which, taking into account some increases in                      building greater awareness of climate change and
Quarterly, Number 1.
49
                                              domestic travel, represents an 11-19%50 reduction                 creating a low carbon culture throughout
  TIAX (2007), ‘The Energy and Greenhouse
Gas Emissions of Telecommuting and            in both mileage and trips.                                        businesses, though these impacts are less
e-Commerce’, Consumer Electronics                         What the existing case studies show                   quantifiable. Dematerialisation at the very least
Association; Matthews H.S. and E.T.
Williams (2005), ‘Assessing Opportunities     is that the impact of working from home varies                    provides alternatives, allowing individuals to
for ICT to Contribute to Sustainable          depending on the amount of time spent at home                     control their carbon footprint in a very direct way.
Development’, DG Information, Society and
Media, European Commission.                   and the efficiency of the economy in which                        First adopters could enable the cultural shifts
50
  UK Department of Transport, ‘Smarter        teleworking is introduced. For example, if a                      necessary for ICT-enabled energy efficiency to
Choices’, http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/          significant number of people worked from home                     take hold in the broader economy.
sustainable/smarterchoices/
51
                                              more than three days a week, this could lead to
  Gartner; Matthews H.S. and E.T. Williams
(2005), Assessing Opportunities for ICT to    energy savings of 20-50%, even with the increase                  Hurdles to adoption
Contribute to Sustainable Development, DG     in energy used at home or non-commuter travel.                    While dematerialisation undoubtedly has the
Information, Society and Media, European
Commission; TIAX (2007) The Energy and        Home-working allows employers to use or build                     potential to play a significant role in reducing
Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Telecommuting     smaller offices that require less energy to                       emissions, it has had limited impact so far, mainly
and e-Commerce, Consumer Electronics
Association.                                  construct and maintain. However, the impact is                    owing to low adoption rates. In 2005, only 1-2%
52
   TelCoa - The Telework Coalition, Greater   much lower if take-up is lower than three days                    of the US workforce teleworked,51 and many
Washington DC Telecommuting Online            a week because it would still be necessary to                     employers remain unsure about the technology.
Survey Findings May 2003, http://www.
telcoa.org/id110.htm                          maintain office space for periodic home-workers.                  According to a survey by US teleworking
                                              Also, in efficient countries, such as Japan, the                  coalition, TelCoa, 54% of companies thought that
                                              impact of teleworking may be reduced.                             teleworking made it difficult for employees to
                                                          Tele- and videoconferencing –                         collaborate and 46% thought it made it harder to
                                              conducting meetings online or on the phone                        manage employee performance.52
                                              instead of face-to-face – could also reduce                                   Though technological barriers are not
                                              emissions. Previous conservative estimates have                   generally perceived as a major barrier to adoption,
                                              suggested that tele- and videoconferencing could                  improvements here could contribute to a more
                                              replace between 5 and 20% of global business                      positive attitude towards the technology.
                                              travel. Advanced videoconferencing applications                   Many companies are still unwilling to adopt
                                              in the early stage of adoption could have a very                  dematerialisation technology at higher rates
                                              significant impact in highly distributed service                  because it requires adopting new ways of working
                                              industry environments in both the private and                     with significant cultural shifts. Yet if it could be
                                              public sectors.                                                   demonstrated that this new way was better and
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The enabling effect
economy in the information age                         03/32




easy to adapt to, adoption rates would improve.        The next generation of professionals are              53
                                                                                                                Economist Intelligence Unit (2008),
                                                                                                             Managing the Company’s Carbon
            There are signs that these attitudes       already equipped with the tools and knowledge         Footprint: The Emerging Role of ICT,
are changing. The Economist Intelligence Unit          to take dematerialisation forward, attending to       http://www.viewswire.com/report_
                                                                                                             dl.asp?mode=fi&fi=1723298157.PDF&rf=0
recently launched a report based on a series of        many activities and aspects of their lives            54
                                                                                                                Technology may be a barrier, but was not
interviews with businesses that highlighted the        online. Studies on the networking and mobile          identified as such in this analysis. However,
low instance of including ICT technologies in          use of 10- to 16-year-olds shows that they are        10 Mbit/second access is more readily
                                                                                                             available to about one third of households
climate change strategies. The report is optimistic    actively using collaborative technologies and         in Western Europe and Asia, much less so in
that in the next few years this could change           may develop very different ways of working            North America or Eastern Europe.
dramatically, but this will require a different        in the future.55                                      55
                                                                                                               Boyd, Danah. (2007) ‘Why Youth (Heart)
                                                                                                             Social Network Sites: The Role of Networked
approach from businesses and governments.53                        But, as noted earlier, the carbon         Publics in Teenage Social Life.’ in David
            In terms of the broader                    emission reduction opportunity that                   Buckingham (ed.), MacArthur Foundation
                                                                                                             Series on Digital Learning – Youth, Identity
dematerialisation opportunities outside the            dematerialisation offers is relatively small          and DigitalMedia Volume, (Cambridge, MA:
workplace, the challenge comes from the current        compared with the mitigation opportunities to be      MIT Press).
global infrastructure. It does not yet support         found in applications that cover larger emissions
high-quality and affordable internet service to        bases for enabling greater efficiency in other
all consumers and businesses, though there are         industrial sectors. For example, emissions globally
significant regional variations: most households       from commuters and the buildings that support
in Europe and North America are not equipped           them is 830 MtCO2e, so an ambitious 31%
to receive high quality digital services,54 Asia       implementation of teleworking yields 260 Mt
Pacific and the rest of the emerging markets           CO2e emissions savings. On the other hand,
are leapfrogging old technologies and installing       reducing 15% of the 4.6 GtCO2e emitted by
high-speed broadband as standard, which makes          industrial activity would yield 680 MtCO2e
a shift towards a dematerialised way of life easier.   of savings globally.
                                                                   The efficiency opportunities in
Overcoming the hurdles                                 industry, transport, power and buildings created
There are a number of solutions to combat these        by ICT (7.3 GtCO2e in total) are covered in more
challenges, some of which are already being            detail below.
implemented. They include:
                                                       SMART motor systems
• Developing company   /institution blueprints for     Motor systems – devices that convert electricity
  telecommuting that can be piloted and rolled         into mechanical power – lie at the heart of
  out in phases                                        global industrial activity. These include
• Analysing where substitution could have the          transformers such as those used in compressors
  most impact and providing governments with           and pumps and variable speed drives (VSD) used
  the information they need to develop effective       in conveyor belts and elevators. Though invisible
  policy to promote these solutions                    to most of us, these devices are crucial to the
• Cities and national governments taking a leading     manufacturing sector and, as this sector expands,
  role in promoting the delivery of broadband          so does energy demand. Carbon emissions as
  infrastructure, supporting advanced                  a result of energy used by the growing
  collaboration technologies and building remote       manufacturing industry in regions such as China
  working sites just outside city centres.             increase still further, as most of the electricity
                                                       required will be generated using carbon-intensive
What is at stake?                                      coal-fired power stations.56
The opportunity for dematerialisation to reduce
carbon emissions could be substantial –                The global context
500 Mt CO2e in 2020 – but its effectiveness            Industrial activity is one of the largest
depends on behavioural changes, which makes            contributors to global emissions, responsible for
it hard to assess how quickly its true potential       23% of total emissions in 2002 (9.2 GtCO2e).
will be realised.                                      It uses nearly half of all global electrical power
            In addition, future social change          generated, industrial motor systems using the
facilitated by near-ubiquitous connectivity            majority (65%) and by 2020, motor systems will
(mobile or broadband), could enable greater            be responsible for 7% of global carbon emissions
emissions reductions than this report suggests.        (Fig. 10.1).
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The enabling effect
                                             economy in the information age                          03/33




                                             Fig 10.1. SMART motor systems: The global impact
                                             in 2020
                                             GtCO2e


                                             Total emissions BAU                                                                  0.29
                                             in 2020 = 51.9 GtCO2e
                                               Total emissions from power used by     6.5                       0.97
                                               industrial systems
                                               Total ICT smart motor system
                                                                                                                                  0.68
                                               abatements
                                               ICT-driven automation in key
                                               industrial processes
                                               Optimisation of variable speed motor
                                               systems




56
   About 70% of power consumed in China      ICT could play a significant role in mitigating         motor system efficiency. The ICT sector has
is generated by coal – China Statistical
Yearbook, 2006.
                                             global carbon emissions from motor systems and          additional roles to play. Simulation software is
57
  Government of New South Wales,
                                             industrial process optimisation, up to 970 MtCO2e       required to help improve plant and manufacturing
Energy Smart Business Program, http://       in 2020. These opportunities are not going              process design. Wireless networks that allow
www.energysmart.com.au/wes/default.
asp?&t=200852216
                                             unnoticed – initiatives such as Energy Smart57          inter-machine and system communication,
58
  BC Hydro, Power Smart for Business,
                                             in Australia, BC Hydro’s Power Smart58 in Canada        would improve efficiency across an entire
http://www.bchydro.com/business/             and Motor Decisions Matter59 in the US are all          factory. Fig. 10.2 summarises the role ICT
pspartner/pspartner51113.html
                                             working with businesses to identify optimal use         could play in improving motor and industrial
59
   Consortium for Energy Efficiency, Inc.,
Motor Decisions Matter, http://www.
                                             of smart motors in their processes and the carbon       system efficiency.
motorsmatter.org/index.html                  and economic savings are substantial. Indeed,                      The opportunities for industry in
60
  Government of New South Wales, Energy      the Energy Smart Business Program states that           adopting ICT-driven improvements to reduce their
Smart Business Program: Unlocking Energy
Efficiency Opportunities in the Industrial
                                             properly sized, energy efficient motors with            climate impact are clear – perhaps nowhere more
Sector, http://www.energysmart.com.au/       electronic VSD and improved gears, belts,               so than in countries where business is booming.
wes/images/pdf/technical_paper_heavy_
industrial_final.pdf
                                             bearings and lubricants use only 40% as much            Given that much of the growth in industrial
61
   IEA (2007), Tracking Industrial Energy
                                             energy as standard systems and, in financial            energy demand has been in emerging economies,
Efficiency and CO2 Emissions, http://www.    terms, with a four-year payback project, VSD            with China alone accounting for about 80% of the
iea.org/Textbase/npsum/tracking2007SUM.
pdf
                                             installations for the control of conveyors and          growth in the last 25 years,61 the potential for
                                             combustion and ventilation fans can deliver             large-scale utilisation of smart motor systems
                                             energy savings upwards of AUS$120 million               will be greatest there.
                                             (¤73 million/$115 million) a year.60
                                                                                                     Smart motor systems in China
                                             The opportunity: How ICT can help                       Manufacturing is the engine of China’s economic
                                             Motors can be inefficient as they operate at full       growth and will continue to be so until 2020, but
                                             capacity, regardless of load. A motor is ‘smart’        even now it is struggling to cope with the heavy
                                             when it can be controlled to adjust its power usage     demand on its energy resources. Between 2004
                                             to a required output, usually through a VSD and         and 2006 there were serious power shortages and
                                             intelligent motor controller (IMC), a piece of          two years ago, 26 out of 31 mainland provinces
                                             hardware controlling the VSD.                           cut power for industrial and residential customers.
                                                         There is a lack of information about                    Motor systems are part of the reason
                                             energy consumption in motor systems and where           for this: they currently use 70% of total industry
                                             savings can be made within a factory. ICT’s main        electricity consumption and are 20% less
                                             role in the short term, therefore, will be to monitor   energy efficient than those in Western countries.
                                             energy use and provide data to businesses so they       By 2020, industrial motor systems in China will
                                             can make energy and cost savings by changing            be responsible for 34% of power consumption
                                             manufacturing systems. These data may also be           and 10% of carbon emissions, or 1-2% of
                                             useful for organisations setting standards for          global emissions.62
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The enabling effect
economy in the information age                         03/34




Fig. 10.2 SMART motor systems: The role of ICT




                                                                                Transform
                                             Rethink
          Standardise,                                                         • System intelligence and
                                                                                 integrated control of devices
          Monitor &                                                              across the plant and the
          Account                           • Optimisation of motor systems      wider business
                                              through using information on     • Integration with sales and
                                              required output of motor           logistics
        • Monitoring of energy                system
          consumption and energy            • Optimisation of industrial        Technologies and services
          savings                             systems through receiving        • Protocols for system
        • Central repository of energy        information at the factory level   communication and
          consumption data                    on actual output of all motor      interoperability
        • Transfer of energy                  systems in real time             • Servers and storage to support
          consumption data to local and     • Remote and centralised control     integrated control of devices
          central governments for             of VSDs (central intelligence    • Wireless protocols for
          regulatory compliance               providing instructions to VSDs)    machine-to-machine
        • Analysis of energy                                                     communication (e.g. TCP/IP
          consumption data                   Technologies and services           for industrial systems)
                                            • Simulation of systems by plant • Device integration in company
         Technologies and services            designers and operators            and/or plant
        • Chips and controllers for         • Manufacturing process design • Tailored optimisation solutions
          VSD intelligence                    technology                         for different sectors
        • Digital meters and                • Wired/wireless
          components for real time            communications between VSD
          information                         and central control system
        • Database collection of energy     • Wired/wireless
          audits integrated with              communications between VSD
          business software                   and rest of the plant
        • Central collection of real time   • Software to analyse and
          energy data                         optimise design of motor and
        • Interface with monitoring           industrial system
          agencies
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The enabling effect
                                               economy in the information age                         03/35




                                              “We cannot underestimate the potential influence
                                               that wireless communications can bring to the
                                               manufacturing process and control.” Electronic
                                               Engineering Professor, Chinese University



62
  Analysis includes data from IEA              ICT has an important role to play in making             have no incentives to install VSD.” Director of
(2007), ‘World Energy Outlook: China
and India Insights’; Enkvist P., T. Naucler
                                               Chinese industry more efficient and with                Information, Beijing Office, Electric Motor
and J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for      government regulation aiming for a 20% increase         industry Body
Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey
Quarterly, Number 1.
                                               in energy efficiency by 2010 relative to 2005,
*
  ¤18,298/$28,885 - based on exchange
                                               saving energy is high on the agenda for industry.      Hurdles to adoption
rate figures obtained at http://www.xe.com                                                            There are a number hurdles preventing companies
on 9th June 2008 at ¤1=10.9300 RMB and
$1=6.92400 RMB respectively.
                                               “We have spent RMB 200,000* on simulation              from adopting smart motor technology. These are:
63
  This assumes a replacement rate on
                                                software. It helps us calculate the optimal value
historic trends of 10% per year. IEA            for multiple variables in our steam network.”         • Lack of capital for investment in the integrated
Industrial Motor Systems Efficiency
workshop (May 2006); Nadel S., W.
                                                Manufacturing Planning Manager, Multinational           automation and ICT technologies required
Wanxing, P. Liu, A. McKane (2001),‘The          Auto Manufacturer                                     • Poor awareness of the business case for
China Motor Systems Energy Conservation
Program’, LBNL.
                                                                                                        reducing energy use through optimisation
                                               Industrial energy use in China could be reduced        • Reluctance to install technology for fear
                                               by 10% by improving the efficiency of motor              of disrupting production processes and
                                               systems. VSDs, which control the frequency of            losing revenue
                                               electrical power supplied to the motor, thereby        • A lack of capacity and skills to operate advanced
                                               adjusting the rotation speed to the required             automation technologies
                                               output, are the most effective means of saving         • A lack of nationwide standards or certification
                                               energy - up to 25-30%. IMCs, which monitor the         • Out-of-date infrastructure that can’t run
                                               load condition of the motor and adjust the voltage       new systems.
                                               input accordingly, offer minor efficiency gains
                                               (3-5%), but have the benefit of extending the          “Even though there is a good business case,
                                               motor lifespan, which reduces the number of new         Chinese companies either do not trust the
                                               motors required and therefore the manufacturing         business case or take a short-term view. They
                                               emissions associated with this.                         prefer upfront cash to promised future cash
                                                           The impact of these measures on             flows.”Director, Environmental NGO
                                               emissions reduction would be substantial. Motor
                                               system optimisation alone could reduce China’s         “The more you produce, the more you earn.
                                               emissions by 200 MtCO2e by 2020.63 This is              Manufacturing disruptions mean revenue
                                               comparable to the total 2006 level emissions from       losses.”Engineering Professor, Chinese University
                                               the Netherlands.
                                                                                                      Overcoming the hurdles in China
                                               “Our research is focusing on tailored and              There are a number of possible ways to overcome
                                                integrated solutions for entire plants in different   these hurdles. These include:
                                                sectors.”Marketing Director, Leading Chinese
                                                Automation Manufacturer                               • Providing benchmarking, showcasing the most
                                                                                                        successful initiatives
                                               “End users don’t directly buy small and medium-        • Implementing automated auditing of the most
                                                sized motors. They buy machines. Energy                 energy-intensive businesses, with aggressive
                                                efficiency is not a major decision factor for these     energy use reduction targets and target
                                                end users. Therefore, machine manufacturers             monitoring
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The enabling effect
economy in the information age                         03/36




• Creating government subsidies for best-in-class      and mid-voltage, high-efficiency VSD.64                  64
                                                                                                                  Analysis includes data from expert
                                                                                                                interviews, January 2008.
  technology adoption                                              The Energy Foundation also invests in
                                                                                                                65
                                                                                                                     IDC (2007)
• Providing low-interest loans to fund energy          developing policies to improve energy efficiency
  efficiency within industries                         and overcome institutional barriers. The
• Making financing mechanisms, such as energy          International Finance Corporation (World Bank)
  service companies (ESCOs), available to procure      has a new China Utility-based Energy Efficiency
  energy efficiency as a service                       Finance Program (CHUEE) with over $50 million
• Developing internationally recognised ICT            (¤78.8 million) invested in many projects. In
  architectural standards for integration of           addition to this, further international funding
  efficient motor systems to enable ICT platforms      mechanisms could also be made available to
• Undertaking further research on the role of ICT      provide support to this process.
  and motor systems in industrial automation.                      There is also a nascent market for
                                                       ESCOs operating in China, financed by the
In China, a number of these solutions are already      World Bank and GEF. These companies engage
being implemented. Faced with the recent power         in performance contracting and get paid for
shortages, the Chinese government has begun to         each kWh saved, usually based on contracts
tackle energy efficiency as a matter of urgency        of five to six years.
and there are now a significant number of policy                   The emphasis on energy efficiency
measures to improve it.                                in China means that both MNCs operating in the
            The 11th five-year plan – a rolling        control systems market and smaller local players
programme for 2006-2010 – sets a national goal         are growing their businesses fast. Local players
of a 20% improvement in energy efficiency. The         are small compared with MNCs, but serve local
Chinese government is undertaking relevant             small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and
benchmarking to ensure this target is achieved,        therefore the Chinese automation market is
allowing Chinese companies to compare their            expected to continue to grow rapidly, rising by
energy efficiency performance against each other       29% between 2007 and 2011.65
and multinational corporations (MNCs). The
government has also launched the China Motor           What is at stake?
Systems Energy Conservation Programme and              Assuming a carbon price of ¤20($31.5)/tCO2e,
10 key energy saving programmes, one of which          emissions reductions of 200 MtCO2e by
focuses on motor system optimisation in energy         2020 would represent a saving of up to
intensive industries such as coal mining.               ¤4 billion ($6.3 billion) pa in carbon costs.
            The End-Use Energy Efficiency              Savings in electricity use would be worth ¤8
Programme (EUEEP) run by the United Nations            billion ($12.6 billion) pa. The total value for
Development Programme (UNDP) and the                   ICT and other high tech companies in China
Global Environment Facility (GEF) invest               would therefore be ¤12 billion ($18.9 billion) pa
millions in efficiency projects. Additionally, the     by 2020 (detailed assumptions in
Chinese government is working with the top             Appendix 3).
1,008 most energy-intensive businesses, auditing                   Whereas China offers the largest
their energy use, proposing aggressive energy          potential saving because of the size and
use reduction targets and providing consulting         inefficiency of its manufacturing base, ICT could
and skill building to help companies reach             reduce emissions in any industrial process
these targets.                                         throughout the world. This opportunity would
            Government subsidies are now               be worth ¤68 billion ($107.2 billion) in 2020.
available to pay the difference between regular
and high-efficiency motors and up to 20% of VSD        SMART Logistics
installations, which will help deal with the lack of   Global goods transport is growing rapidly,
capital available for companies to invest in the       as a result of globalisation and global economic
new technologies. To increase awareness and to         growth. The logistics of this vast operation
strengthen the business case, the Ministry of          (including packaging, transport, storage,
Science and Technology is financing and                consumer purchasing and waste) are inherently
publishing research on areas such as motor system      inefficient. For instance, vehicles often carry little
energy-saving technology for the mining industry       or nothing on return journeys. As fuel costs and
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                The enabling effect
                                           economy in the information age                                     03/37




66
   Compared with 23% from industry         taxes rise, the need to run more efficient logistics               by other ICT-driven solutions in this report, the
(process emissions and direct emissions
from primary energy use), forestry (14%)
                                           operations is increasingly important. ‘Smart                       opportunities to make the logistics industry more
and agriculture and waste (18%). IEA       logistics’ comprise a range of software and                        efficient have important economic considerations,
(2004), World Energy Outlook.
                                           hardware tools that monitor, optimise and manage                   since it operates such a high-value market. In
                                           operations, which helps reduce the storage                         2005, the value of the global logistics industry
                                           needed for inventory, fuel consumption,                            was estimated at $3.5 trillion (¤5.5 trillion).67
                                           kilometres driven and frequency of vehicles
                                           travelling empty or partially loaded.                              The opportunity: How ICT can help
                                                                                                              ICT can improve the efficiency of logistics
                                           The global context                                                 operations in a number of ways. These include
                                           The transport sector is a large and growing emitter                software to improve the design of transport
                                           of GHGs, responsible for 14% of global                             networks, allow the running of centralised
                                           emissions.66 The majority of logistics emissions                   distribution networks and run management
                                           come from transport and storage. Optimising                        systems that can facilitate flexible home
                                           logistics using ICT could result in a 16% reduction                delivery services. Specific levers include
                                           in transport emissions and a 27% reduction in                      intermodal shift, or moving to the most efficient
                                           storage emissions globally.                                        type of transport, eco-driving, route
                                                       ICT-driven applications across logistics               optimisation and inventory reduction. There
                                           could achieve a reduction in total global emissions                are a number of specific technologies that could
                                           of 1.52 GtCO2e (Fig. 11.1). Although this figure is                already enable more efficient logistics,68 as set
                                           relatively modest compared to reductions offered                   out in Fig. 11.2.


                                           Fig. 11.1 SMART logistics: The global impact in 2020
                                           GtCO2e



                                           Total emissions
                                                                                                                                                   0.04
                                           BAU in 2020 =
                                           51.9 GtCO2e
                                                                                                                           0.01             0.18
                                                                                                                                                             0.34

                                                                                                                                    0.18
                                                                                                        Figures                                                             0.02
                                                                                        1.52
                                                                                                        expanded
                                                                                                                       0.02
                                                                                                                       0.03
                                                                                                                                                               0.33
                                                                                                                        0.01
                                                                                                                                           0.25
                                                                                           19.3



                                                                                                                                                      0.10



                                             Total emissions from buildings (storage)    Optimisation of logistics network                  In-flight fuel efficiency
                                             and transport (includes 11.7 from           Intermodal shift (commercial)                      Reduction in ground fuel consumption
                                             buildings, 7.6 from transport)              Optimisation of collection/delivery                Reduction in unnecessary flight time
                                             Ict–enabled transport and storage           itinerary planning                                 Maximisation of ship load factor
                                             abatements (includes 1.29 transport and     Optimisation of route planning - e.g.              (commercial)
                                             0.22 storage)                               avoidance of congestion (commercial)               Optimisation of ship operations
                                                                                         Eco-driving (commercial)                           (commercial)
                                                                                         Reduction in unnecessary flight time               Minimisation of packaging
                                                                                         (commercial)
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The enabling effect
economy in the information age                        03/38




Fig. 11.2 SMART logistics: The role of ICT




                                                                                Transform
                                             Rethink
                                                                               •Vehicle and load management
          Standardise,                                                          systems to identify unused
          Monitor and                                                           capacity within the supply
                                            •Increase communication             chain
          Account                            between devices and between       •Reverse logistics to allow the
                                             logistics providers and suppliers back-loading of vehicles on the
         •Tag and track inventory, stock    •Optimise and control inventory     network and for the return of
          and other items throughout         to reduce vehicle miles in         unsold/damaged goods to the
          the supply chain                   delivery or returning stock        supplier
         •Track local terrain and            to the manufacturer               •Apply systems thinking from
          information for understanding     •Model and optimise distribution production to consumer to end
          of optimal routes                  network design throughout          of life
         •Information systems                supply chain design
          to provide the driver with real   •Conduct stock repair tasks on      Technologies and services
          time information about the         behalf of the manufacturer        •CO2e emissions tracking
          vehicle’s efficiency and          •Manage day to day operations       platforms
          behaviour                          with real time data               •Electronic freight exchanges
                                            •Track efficiency against           (EFX) to allow for the ‘auction’
          Technologies and services          business performance               of spare space on vehicles
         •Radio frequency identification                                       •Reverse logistics platforms
          (RFID) for asset tracking          Technologies and services         •Protocols for system
         •Geographical information          •Broadband networks                 interoperability
          systems (GIS) to combine          •Messaging platforms enable        •CO2e route optimisation
          sensing with geographical          notifications between system       standards and software
          terrain                            components                        •E-commerce and other
         •Data recorders for vehicles       •Telematics                         e-services
         •Onboard driver information        •Supply chain design and
          and data logging                   modelling software
         •Real time fleet tracking          •Real time route optimisation
         •Global Positioning Systems         (RTRO) software
          (GPS)                             •Collaborative planning,
                                             forecasting and replenishment
                                             (CPFR) systems
                                            •Installed base management
                                             platforms
                                            •Vendor managed repair (VMR)
                                             platforms; also known as
                                             maintenance, repair and
                                             operating (MRO)
                                            •Business and operational
                                             support systems (BSS) (OSS)
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The enabling effect
                                               economy in the information age                         03/39




                                               “People have a tendency to look at a single element of
                                                the system rather than looking at the whole system.”
                                                Senior Executive, Logistics Software Provider




67
  Wall Street Research, http://www.            The barrier posed by this fragmentation is vast,       • Logistics operators and service providers tend
wallstreetresearch.org/reports/wkol.pdf
68                                             yet the industry is consolidating. Some of the best      to take a short-term approach to investment in
  Analysis included data from expert
interviews, Jan – Feb 2008.                    examples of this development can be seen in the          improving efficiency
69
   BAU transport emissions are projected to    European context.                                      • The existing infrastructure is outdated, making
rise at 1.8% pa to 2020 and beyond to 2030,                                                             it hard for wholesale changes to be implemented
mainly owing to Europe’s ongoing economic
growth, aviation transport being the fastest   SMART logistics in Europe                              • Lack of industry standards prevents
growing in the sector. IEA (2007); Herzog      There are a number of different types of                 interoperability between the many different
T., J. Pershing and K. Baumert (2005),
‘Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas        companies involved in the logistics industry,            systems that currently exist within the
Data and International Climate Policy’,        including those that help clients integrate their        logistics industry
World Resources Institute; WBCSD (2000),
Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) Transport   supply chain, provide warehousing, transport           • Anti-competition regulations often prevent
Model.                                         and IT services and make deliveries. It’s a rapidly      cooperation between companies: e.g. major
70
   Between 2003 and 2005, goods imported       expanding market: logistics activities are predicted     supermarkets in the UK can’t work together
into the EU increased from 2,101 to 2,170
million tonnes, an increase of 4%. The         to grow by 23% between 2002 and 2020,                    to create a shared logistics chain.
weight of goods transported within the         representing 18% of European GHG emissions in
EU-25 rose from 1,400 to 1,500 million
tonnes in the same period, also an increase    2020. The majority of logistics emissions come         “Railways give primacy to passenger travel, which
of 4%. Global Insight; EU (2006), Energy       from transport and storage.                             means that freight can be delayed by significant
and Transport in Figures, http://ec.europa.
eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/                           These emissions have been growing           amounts of time.” Head of Research, Global
pocketbook/2006_en.htm                         and are likely to continue to do so in the long         Logistics Service Provider
71
     Expert interviews, Jan - Feb 2008.        term.69 Rising consumption, as indicated by a 2%
                                               growth in OECD Europe’s real GDP between 2000          “80% of fleets in the UK have less than five
                                               and 2005, has increased goods transportation and        trucks.” Analyst, UK Government Agency
                                               cross-border trading.70 Manufacturing often
                                               occurs far from the point of sale and products         “In order to realise the benefits of a new
                                               contain parts manufactured in multiple locations,       technology, logistics companies need to re-
                                               which has also contributed to the increase.             engineer some of their processes.” Professor,
                                                           Several barriers71 are preventing the       UK University
                                               widespread adoption of energy efficiency
                                               measures, the most significant of which is the         Overcoming the hurdles in Europe
                                               high level of fragmentation in European logistics.     There are a number of current technologies and
                                               But these also opportunities for ICT and other         strategies that could improve the efficiency of
                                               high-tech companies.                                   logistics. These include:

                                               Hurdles to adoption                                    • Integrating systems across the supply chain to
                                               While some early adopters are taking up smart            allow sharing of information between planning
                                               logistics technology, many are not for a number          and execution to provide visibility across the
                                               of reasons:                                              system
                                                                                                      • Calculating and monitoring the carbon
                                               • European road freight market is fragmented,            footprint across the region through
                                                 which creates natural inefficiencies and hampers       ICT solutions
                                                 capital investment in energy efficiency              • Developing a common protocol for freight
                                                 technologies                                           exchange to allow small players to exchange
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                 The enabling effect
economy in the information age                                      03/40




  freight and maximise load                                        A survey of the top 100 freight shipping                                   72
                                                                                                                                                Analysis includes data from Eurostat;
                                                                                                                                              Lloyd’s Register (www.lr.org/Services/
• Allowing exceptions to anti-cooperation laws                     companies found that 26% of importers and 28%                              Shipping+information.htm); Drewry
  in areas where significant efficiency gains                      of exporters reported on their emissions, while                            Shipping Consultants (http://www.drewry.
                                                                                                                                              co.uk/); Cl-online (www.ci-online.co.uk);
  are possible.                                                    7% of importers and 10% of exporters said they                             MergeGlobal (http://www.mergeglobal.
                                                                   had reduced emissions.75                                                   com/); International Air Transport
                                                                                                                                              Association (www.iata.org/index.htm);
Some initiatives are already underway to tackle                                                                                               American Shipper (www.americanshipper.
these hurdles. The French road transport industry                  What is at stake?                                                          com); Transport Topics (www.ttnews.com);
                                                                                                                                              US Census (www.census.gov/main/www/
is undergoing significant consolidation and this is                As fuel prices rise, logistics companies will                              cen2000.html)
starting to spread to the rest of Europe. Significant              accelerate their adoption of ICT-based energy                              73
                                                                                                                                                   Ibid
merger and acquisition activity has taken place                    efficiency solutions, which will have a huge                               74
                                                                                                                                                CDP (2007), CDP Report 5,
over the past few years.72 Air and ocean transport                 impact on reducing their emissions – up to                                 http://www.cdproject.net/cdp5reports.asp
players are busy consolidating, too. The top 10                    225 MtCO2e by 2020, 27% less than BAU.                                     75
                                                                                                                                                CDP (2007), CDP Report 5, http://www.
                                                                                                                                              cdproject.net/cdp5reports.asp; PIERS
container shippers had 37% of the market in                        The value of the potential savings through                                 Journal of Commerce data (www.piers.com)
2000; by 2006 that had increased to 65%.73                         more efficient commercial road transport alone
Further consolidation would make it easier for                     (161 MtCO2e) is estimated to be up to ¤33 billion
the industry to adopt common practices and                         ($52 billion) in Europe.
standardise logistics efficiency improvements                                  Improving the efficiency of logistics
in the future.                                                     globally is a much larger opportunity. With
            Several large shipping companies have                  emissions reductions potential of around 1.52
announced plans to track and reduce logistics-                     GtCO2e and assuming a carbon price of ¤20
related emissions in the future. Six of them have                  ($31.5)/tCO2e, this could be worth as much as
formed the Supply Chain Leadership Coalition to                    ¤280 billion ($441.7 billion), of which ¤251 billion
press suppliers to release data on their emissions                 ($395.9 billion) is from energy savings and ¤29
and climate change abatement strategies.74                         billion ($45.7 billion) from carbon costs
            There are signs that rising fuel costs are             (Appendix 3).
starting to force operators to improve efficiency.


Fig. 12.1 SMART buildings: The global impact 2020
GtCO2e



Total emissions
                                                                                                                0.06
BAUin 2020 =                                                                                0.02
51.9 GtCO2e
                                                                                                         0.11
                                                                                                 0.12

                                                                                          0.13                                0.45

                 11.7                         1.68            Figures
                                                              expanded                    0.15


                                                                                                  0.24
                                                                                                                       0.39




  Total emissions from buildings (including    Intelligent commissioning                          Heating, ventilation and air conditioning
  power) total emissions from power used       Improved building design for                       (HVAC)
  by industrial systems                        energy efficiency                                  Lighting automation
  Total ICT–enabled smart buildings            BMS                                                Ventilation on demand
  abatement                                    Voltage optimisation                               Reduced building space through design
                                               Benchmarking and building
                                               recommissioning
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                  The enabling effect
 economy in the information age                       03/41




“Ideally, we could apply the principles of
 interoperability (‘plug and play’) to buildings. ICT
 plays a role, but the reality is ‘plug and pray’ rather
 than ‘plug and play’.” Stephen Selkowitz, Lawrence
 Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)



 SMART Buildings                                      Environmental Design (LEED) (USA).
 The term ‘smart buildings’ describes a suite                     Yet, while these initiatives guide
 of technologies used to make the design,             proactive architects, designers and builders in
 construction and operation of buildings more         their quest for ‘green’ building, until this currently
 efficient, applicable to both existing and new-      niche market becomes mainstream, with
 build properties. These might include building       mandatory standards and smart building
 management systems (BMS) that run heating            regulations, the full positive impact of ICT
 and cooling systems according to occupants’          on the building sector will not be felt.
 needs or software that switches off all PCs and                  In addition, because buildings are
 monitors after everyone has gone home. BMS           major sites for electricity consumption, there is
 data can be used to identify additional              a strong proposition to link them with ‘smart grid’
 opportunities for efficiency improvements.           initiatives and even transport. Project Better Place
 A host of BMS already exist and as ICT               is currently piloting plug-in vehicles, which draw
 applications become more sophisticated,              electricity from the home or electric filling
 the range of BMS functions will expand.              stations, to see whether there are negative
                                                      impacts on grid stability – an initiative that relies
 The global context                                   on ICT to make it work.
 Global building emissions were 8% of total
 emissions in 2002 (3.36 GtCO2e). These figures       The opportunity: How ICT can help
 exclude the energy used to run the buildings.        Energy consumption in buildings is driven by
 If this is taken into account, the sector would      two factors – energy intensity and surface area.
 emit 11.7 GtCO2e in 2020. ICT offers a major         ICT-based monitoring, feedback and optimisation
 opportunity to reduce emissions from this            tools can be used to reduce both at every stage of
 sector, by 15% in 2020, by the options set out       a building’s life cycle, from design and
 in Fig. 12.1.                                        construction to use and demolition.
              Emissions from buildings in emerging                Buildings are often poorly designed at
 economies, such as India and China, are expected     the outset, with little consideration for how they
 to grow as their populations become increasingly     will be used or how uses may change over time.
 urbanised. In spite of increased attention to        Even if energy efficiency has been incorporated
 energy wasted in buildings, construction is taking   at the start, a building’s actual energy
 place the world over with little consideration of    performance can be impaired if builders deviate
 the implementation of best practice energy           from the plans or if occupants do not operate
 efficiency measures. Several national schemes        the BMS according to plans or specifications.
 have been set up to establish and promote these      Assuming the building has been designed and
 best practice standards in efficiency. These         built to specification, poor commissioning
 include: EnerGuide for Houses (energy retrofits      (ensuring the building’s systems function as
 and upgrades) and New Houses (new                    specified), constant change of use and poor
 construction) (Canada); Green Building Council/      maintenance can significantly reduce the
 House Energy Rating (Australia); DGNB                effectiveness of any BMS. This means that
 (Germany); BREEAM (UK); CASBEE (Japan); and,         buildings differ dramatically in the energy they
 perhaps best known, Leadership in Energy and         consume and as a result the same technology
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The enabling effect
economy in the information age                        03/42




Fig. 12.2 SMART buildings: The role of ICT




                                                                                Transform
                                             Rethink                            •Create a connected urban
          Standardise,                                                           environment such that
          Monitor &                         •Recommission to find
                                                                                 buildings are adjustable to
                                                                                 human behaviour
          Account                            inefficiencies in BMS. The two     •Improved human-to-machine
                                             areas of the greatest impact are    interface
         •The ability to change the local    lighting and HVAC                  •Software to design the built
          conditions based on occupant      •Improve engagement and              environment systems from
          behaviour                          involvement from users              transport through to building
         •Occupancy-based lighting          •Building and energy                 use
         •Demand control ventilation         management control systems         •Teleworking and collaborative
         •Correction of hardware             (EMCS)                              technologies to reduce need
          controls                          •Removal of software errors          for office space
         •Measuring building                •Remote building management
          performance/networking            •Improvements to operations          Technologies and services
         •Modelling and simulating           and maintenance                    •Open standards for
          energy consumption                •Energy modelling from design        interoperability between
         •Daylight control systems           through building use                different technology sets
                                                                                •Automated whole building
          Technologies and services          Technologies and services           control systems (AWBCS) and
         •Sensors for remote monitoring     •Building design and simulation      automated whole building
          and measurement                    software (e.g. temperature          diagnostic systems (AWBDS)
         •Chips and controllers for BMS      modelling, fluid dynamic           •Maintenance of energy
         •In-building network systems        modelling)                          generation services (e.g.
         •Building equipment (e.g. LED      •BMS                                 photovoltaic energy supply)
          lighting)                         •Implementation of building         •Automated building code
         •Building automation solutions      automation (e.g. shade control      checking services
          (e.g. occupancy-based              systems, motion based
          lighting)                          refrigerator case lighting)
                                            •Interconnectivity between
                                             building systems (e.g. EMCS,,
                                             lighting, security systems)
                                            •Appliance interconnectivity
                                             and networking and remote
                                             appliance control
                                            •Operations and maintenance
                                             of building communication
                                             systems
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The enabling effect
                                               economy in the information age                          03/43




76
   US and Canada have the highest building     applications can have very different impacts.               Case study: smart living
emissions per capita, according to Enkvist
P., T. Naucler and J. Rosander (2007),
                                                           There are various smart buildings               The Solaire building in New York was the
‘A Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction’,   technologies available today that can help reduce           US’s first ‘green’ residential tower and was
The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 1; data
from Global Insight.
                                               emissions at each stage of a building’s lifecycle.          inspired by the Battery Park City Authority’s
77
   Solaire site visit; expert interviews,
                                               Energy modelling software can help architects               initiatives. As well as other sustainability
Jan -Feb 2008.                                 determine how design influences energy use.                 features, it contains a comprehensive BMS
78
  California has decoupled energy              Builders can use software to compare energy                 to control the entire building. This was built
generation from provision so that energy
efficiency can be profitable.
                                               models with actual construction. Once the                   into the plans at the design stage, is
                                               building is complete, ICT can measure and                   continuously updated and undergoes an
                                               benchmark its performance and compare actual                annual re-commission. The BMS provides
                                               to predicted energy efficiency. Occupants can               real time monitoring and reacts to external
                                               install a BMS to automate building functions                stimuli, such as the weather. Winner of
                                               such as lighting and heating and cooling and if             several awards and recipient of the LEED Gold
                                               a building undergoes a change of use. ICT can be            rating, the Solaire is 35% more energy
                                               used to redesign its energy model and measure               efficient than building code requirements and
                                               the impacts of this change.                                 uses 67% less energy than other similarly
                                                           Fig. 12.2 shows how ICT can identify            sized buildings in peak hours. Since opening
                                               energy consumption, optimise for reduction in               in 2002, energy consumption has decreased
                                               energy and emissions and transform current ways             by 16% and, as a result of its green
                                               of designing and using the built environment.               credentials, the developers have been able to
                                               The US and Canada are home to some of the most              charge a rental premium of 10%.77
                                               exciting and ambitious innovations in smart
                                               building technology.                                     Among the measures are the implementation
                                                                                                        of building codes and standards, offering
                                               SMART buildings in North America                         incentives to builders, owners and occupiers to
                                               North American buildings are among the most              adopt efficiency measures, strengthening the
                                               inefficient in the world,76 responsible for a quarter    business case for investing in efficiency
                                               of all global building emissions. Since most of the      technology and training more people to
                                               floor space that will be in use in the US and            implement and operate BMS.
                                               Canada by 2020 already exists, retrofitting and                     But despite ICT’s proven role in
                                               better management of existing buildings will be          improving the energy efficiency of buildings,
                                               at least as important as efficiencies in new build.      emissions are still rising. A number of barriers
                                               Some states in the US, such as California, have          appear to be preventing those involved in the
                                               already demonstrated significant potential to            design, construction and use of buildings from
                                               improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions           adopting the technology and realising the full
                                               in buildings.                                            abatement opportunities.
                                                            Recognising the contribution that
                                               buildings make to global emissions, both the             Hurdles to adoption
                                               US federal government and individual states              There are a number of barriers the adoption of
                                               have implemented a number of policy initiatives          the technology and realising the full emissions
                                               that are starting to improve buildings’ efficiency.      savings opportunities. These include:
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The enabling effect
economy in the information age                        03/44




“Efficiency is not being built into buildings today to
 the extent that it could be. It will take decades to
 change how this is done.” Stephen Thomas,
 Johnson Controls




• Lack of incentives for architects, builders,        • Develop new business models to overcome the         79
                                                                                                               Cleantech Ventures, www.
                                                                                                            cleantechventures.com.au
  developers and owners to invest in smart              misalignment in incentives that currently exists,   80
                                                                                                               Analysis includes data from expert
  building technology from which they will              such as performance contracting and tax credits     interviews, Jan -Feb 2008.
  not benefit                                         • Develop new financial mechanisms for builders
•Unclear business case for investing in energy          that support investment in energy efficiency,
 efficiency: energy consumption is a small part         such as mortgages that fund energy efficiency
 of building cost structure, yet building               or carbon credits
 automation costs can be high and payback             • Prioritise sectors such as retail where energy
 periods are often long                                 forms a large share of addressable costs
• The buildings sector is slow to adopt new           • Develop green building valuation tools
  technology – a 20-25-year cycle for residential     • Develop supportive long-term solutions such as
  units and a 15-year cycle for commercial              government- or industry-led alliances that can
  buildings is typical                                  accelerate industry change
• A lack of skilled technicians to handle             • Provide better training to building operators and
  complex BMS – most buildings of less than             information to users by simple devices such as
  10,000 sq ft (930 sq metres) do not have trained      visual smart meters or interfaces to influence
  operating staff                                       behavioural change
• As each building is designed and built as unique,   • Develop open standards to enable
  it is difficult to apply common standards for         interoperability of BMS.
  efficiency and operations
• Interoperable technologies exist but are not        Faced with the rising energy costs of the past few
  uniformly deployed. Many experts agree that         years, the US government has begun to tackle
  an open standard would be the most effective        energy efficiency as a matter of urgency and
  way to enable further innovation                    overcome some of these hurdles.
• Lack of incentives for energy companies to                      At the federal level, the US government
  sell less energy and encourage efficiency           is active in developing voluntary standards and
  among customers.78                                  tools such as the Energy Star programme, which is
                                                      now extending to rate building energy efficiency.
 “Building owners and operators want simplicity.      At state and council levels, California’s Global
  They do not want too much automation and            Warming Solutions Act, AB 32, which calls for
  intelligence built into the system without the      GHG reductions to 1990 levels by 2020 and
  ability to override it.”Gareth Ashley,              Wisconsin’s plan to reduce GHG emissions from
  Associate, Arup                                     public buildings by 20% by 2010 are just two of
                                                      many initiatives underway.
“If airplanes were built like buildings, you                      A number of developments have taken
 wouldn’t fly in them.”Stephen Selkowitz, LBNL        place in the commercial sector and within industry
                                                      bodies. Venture capital investment for energy
Overcoming the hurdles in North America               efficient solutions increased by 42% in 2005-
A number of solutions could be implemented to         2006. Considerable promotion has gone into
overcome these barriers:                              efficiency improvements in HVAC, smart
                                                      buildings and other environmental systems.79
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The enabling effect
economy in the information age                        03/45




Tax credits, such as the Commercial Building Tax      SMART Grids
Deduction, have been introduced to persuade           Current centralised energy distribution networks
developers to invest in energy efficiency. BMS        are often huge, inefficient grids that lose power
providers and ESCOs80 now offer performance           in transmission, require an overcapacity of
contracting, in which third parties invest in         generating capability to cope with unexpected
efficiency technology in exchange for a share of      surges in energy use and allow one-way
the money accrued from the energy savings.            communication only – from provider to customer.
            Carbon credits and mortgages can          In most countries, selling energy back to the grid
now be used to fund efficiency measures and           (e.g. that generated from solar panels) is
green building valuation tools, which allow an        impossible. This way of operating is becoming
economic assessment of energy efficiency.             increasingly untenable: the costs of fuel are rising
The Green Building Finance Consortium Initiative is   and a global emissions trading scheme (ETS) is
also helping to demonstrate the business case         likely in the next few years. Electricity producers
for efficiency.                                       can’t afford to waste the amount of power that
            Alliances and initiatives, such as the    they currently do.
Retail Energy Alliance and the Building America                   A ‘smart grid’ is a set of software
Consortium, have been set up to deal with the         and hardware tools that enable generators to
shortage of skilled buildings managers and            route power more efficiently, reducing the need
better training is now in place for building          for excess capacity and allowing two-way, real
operators. Building users are the target of           time information exchange with their customers
information campaigns to raise awareness of           for real time demand side management (DSM).
energy efficiency issues.                             It improves efficiency, energy monitoring and
                                                      data capture across the power generation and
What is at stake?                                     T&D network.
Across North America as a whole, a 15%
reduction in energy consumption from buildings        The global context
could equate to emissions reductions of 420           The power sector accounted for 24% of global
MtCO2e and create value of up to ¤39 billion          emissions in 2002 and could be responsible for
($61.5 billion). Globally, smart buildings            14.26 GtCO2e in 2020. The potential for ICT to
technology could potentially reduce emissions         reduce carbon emissions through smart grid
by 1.68 GtCO2e and be worth ¤187 billion ($295        technology could be substantial – some
billion) of energy savings and ¤29 billion ($45.7     2.03 GtCO2e by 2020 (Fig. 13.1). And recent
billion) in carbon costs (Appendix 3). This value     developments across the globe are working to
can be captured by ICT and other high-tech            turn that future projection into reality.
companies. However, to realise this opportunity                   In 2005, the European Technology
will require minimum standards of energy              Platform (ETP) SmartGrids was set up to create
efficiency in existing and new buildings.             a joint vision for the European networks of
                                                      2020 and beyond. The platform includes
                                                      representatives from industry, T&D system
                                                      operators, research bodies and regulators and the
                                                      overall goal of the project is to develop a strategy
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                 The enabling effect
economy in the information age                      03/46




Fig. 13.2 SMART grids: The role of ICT




                                                                              Transform
                                           Rethink                           •Support for and integration
          Standardise,                                                        of renewables and distributed
          Monitor &                       •Better planning and
                                                                              generation
                                                                             •Intelligent dispatch
          Account                          forecasting                       •Captive generation integration
                                          •Improved asset management         •Grid-to-vehicle solutions
         •Better information for          •Improved network design
          consumers and producers         •Remote grid management             Technologies and services
          of power                        •Preventive maintenance            •Protocols for grid-wide system
         •Remote monitoring and           •DSM                                interoperability
          measurement                                                        •Operations and maintenance
         •Improved energy accounting       Technologies and services          of grid communications
         •Improved billing services       •Grid management systems            systems
                                           (e.g. supervisory control and     •Advanced telecommunications
                                           data acquisition (SCADA) and       to allow distributed energy
          Technologies and services        output management system           producers to pool resources
         •Sensors for remote measuring,    (OMS))                             and to handle spikes in supply
          chips and controllers for       •Asset inventory and network        and demand
          monitoring                       design systems (e.g. GIS tools)   •New platforms (e.g. ETS)
         •Smart meters (advanced          •Load analysis and automated
          metering infrastructure (AMI)    dispatch software
          or automatic meter reading      •Workflow management
          (AMR))                           systems for the grid
         •Energy accounting software      •Performance contracting
         •Smart billing software           applications
          – IP-based billing or prepaid   •Demand response software
          metering                         that allows automated load
                                           maintenance
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The enabling effect
                                                economy in the information age                        03/47




                                                Fig. 13.1 SMART grids: The global impact in 2020
                                                GtCO2e


                                                Total emissions BAU
                                                in 2020 = 51.9 GtCO2e
                                                                                                                                   0.9

                                                  Total emissions from the power sector
                                                  Total ICT smart grid abatement potential
                                                                                             14.26                2.03
                                                                                                                  1.68
                                                  Reduce T&D losses                                                                0.83
                                                  Integration of renewables
                                                  Reduce consumption through                                                       0.68
                                                  user information
                                                  DSM                                                                              0.28


                                                                                                                                            0.02




81
  European Commission, European                 for research, development and demonstration           management systems (also known as “dynamic
Technology Platform SmartGrids: Vision and
Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of
                                                of smart grids in practice. The ultimate aim of the   demand”) automate the feedback process by
the Future, ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/     project is to work towards an interactive energy      allowing appliances such as refrigerators to
fp7/energy/docs/smartgrids_en.pdf
                                                generation and distribution network across            dynamically reduce their load at peak times.
82
  Congressional Research Service, Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007:
                                                Europe in which a proportion of the electricity       Fig. 13.2 outlines the emissions reductions
A Summary of Major Provisions, 21               generated by large conventional plants can be         opportunities for the sector.
December 2007, http://energy.senate.gov/
public/_files/RL342941.pdf
                                                displaced by distributed generation, renewable                   The emergence of smart grids as an
83
   The OECD countries averaged only
                                                energy sources, demand response, DSM and              alternative to well-established, existing
14% losses. Although these are projected        energy storage.81                                     infrastructures is very much upon us and in
to fall to 22% by 2020, losses will still
be substantially higher than the 13%
                                                            The US is actively pursuing smart grid    the years to 2020 much change is expected.
expected in the OECD. IEA (2007),‘              solutions. In 2007, the government passed the         Yet in places such as India, where the network’s
World Energy Outlook: India’s Energy
Prospects – Reference Scenario’; Central
                                                Energy Independence and Security Act, Title XIII      inefficiencies are severely impeding economic
Electricity Authority (2007), ‘Seventeenth      of which establishes a national policy for grid       growth, the imperative to transform the current
Electric Power Survey’, Ministry of Power,
Government of India.
                                                modernisation and seeks to deliver a host of          system and remedy these shortcomings is
84
  IEA (2007), ‘World Energy Outlook: India’s
                                                measures including a research and development         immediate.
Energy Prospects – Reference Scenario’.         (R&D) programme for smart grid technologies
                                                and a regional demonstration initiative, with a       SMART grids in India
                                                view to revolutionising the country’s energy          Electricity generation currently accounts for 57%
                                                system. 82 The Modern Grid initiative, affiliated     of India’s total emissions and will continue to do
                                                with a US Department of Energy research lab, is       so until 2020. India’s power network is highly
                                                driving grid modernisation research. Gridwise, a      inefficient and much of the generated electricity
                                                public-private alliance, is also engaged in           is wasted. The lack of transparency in the grid
                                                research and market development activities to         makes losses difficult to measure, but it is
                                                support enhancement of grid reliability or plug-      estimated that in 2007 India lost 32% of total
                                                in vehicles.                                          generation.83

                                                The opportunity: How ICT can help                     “The power network today is blind as they do not
                                                ICT is integral to the range of technologies that      know where the losses are.” Senior Official,
                                                comprise a smart grid. Some of these include           Indian Ministry of Power
                                                smart meters, which allow consumers more
                                                information about how much energy they are            At the same time, India’s power sector is under
                                                using or allow automated reading of energy            pressure to grow to meet increasing demand,
                                                consumption data, helping the utility to better       which could rise 13 times by 2020. Because of the
                                                understand where energy is being used and more        country’s reliance on coal-based energy (69% of
                                                advanced grid management systems. Demand              total demand) and since it is not expected to
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                      The enabling effect
economy in the information age                           03/48




“Smart grid implementation would offer India
 the opportunity to leapfrog current western
 technologies.” Balawant Joshi, Managing Partner,
 ABPS Infra




  Case study: the long path to a smart grid              together would help utilities monitor energy use      85
                                                                                                                 IEA (2007), ‘World Energy Outlook:
                                                                                                               India’s Energy Prospects – Reference
  Without the full implementation of a smart             across the                                            Scenario’; Central Electricity Authority
  grid, one utility, North Delhi Power Limited           grid better and allow them to trace the source        (2007), ‘Seventeenth Electric Power Survey’,
                                                                                                               Ministry of Power, Government of India.
  (NDPL), has figured out a way to get better            of energy losses, whether they be theft or
                                                                                                               86
                                                                                                                  Analysis includes data from Central
  data about its highest-paying customers using          otherwise.                                            Electricity Authority (2007), ‘Seventeenth
  a Global System for Mobile (GSM)                                   There is a further emissions reduction    Electric Power Survey’, Ministry of Power,
                                                                                                               Government of India; CMIE database
  communications. What is essentially a                  opportunity in smart grids’ capacity to support       (www.cmie.com); ABS Energy Research,
  stripped-down mobile phone is programmed               decentralised energy production. This could           “India – Utility meter market profile,” (www.
                                                                                                               absenergyresearch.com); National Council
  to call twice each month to meters where               allow renewable energy to be integrated into the      of Applied Economic Research (2005), ‘The
  customer consumption data is stored, the way           grid, reducing coal-based generation and              Great Indian Market’; Global Insight
  it might call to a dial-up modem. The data are         therefore emissions. Decentralised energy             87
                                                                                                                 Wadhwa, S (2007), ‘5 Years of Sustained
                                                                                                               Efforts towards Business Excellence’, FICCI
  downloaded and used by a local call centre to          sources could also allow the grid to respond to       presentation; expert interviews,
  generate monthly billing. Much more real               local power surges and shortages, making it easier    Jan-Feb 2008.
  time data would be available, but for now,             to manage.                                            88
                                                                                                                    Ibid.
  even this twice-monthly download gives the                         Action is urgently needed to tackle the
  utility what it needs to improve billing, detect       energy losses. Improving efficiency could also
  theft, get better usage and outage data and            reduce power generation investment costs. The
  improve failure detection. It is currently             power sector and the Indian government are
  automating a part of the low voltage                   expected to invest significantly to support GDP
  distribution system to remotely control                growth, providing upcoming investments that will
  streetlights and inaccessible switches that will       last 20-30 years. This represents an opportunity
  improve monitoring capability on the                   to put in place a ‘best in class’ system early and
  distribution network.87                                leapfrog grid technology.86
                                                                     NDPL has also implemented a
deploy low-emission coal technologies until              supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA)
2030,84 emissions from India’s power sector are          system until substation feeder level and a central
expected to grow at 4% pa, twice the global              SCADA control centre to manage substations and
average.                                                 feeders, resulting in reductions of T&D losses in
            Given the rapidly rising demand for          the region from 53% to 23%, better asset
energy, high carbon intensity of supply, high grid       management and faster outage resolution.88
losses, rising energy costs and the fact that India is
investing massively in infrastructural                   Hurdles to adopting smart grids in India
development in the coming years, smart grids are
of particular relevance to India. Action now could       “No investment can be tariff neutral; someone
prevent the country being locked-in to a high             has to pay.” COO, Distribution company
emissions situation for the next 30 years.
            The most important technologies for          In spite of the urgent need in India, there are
India are ICT platforms that help reduce T&D             barriers to smart grid implementation, which
losses. These include remote measurement and             include the following:
monitoring of energy use, remote grid element
management and energy accounting, which
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The enabling effect
                                             economy in the information age                        03/49




                                             “Smart Grid technologies show great potential to (a)
                                              manage what you measure and (b) use two-way
                                              control for real time monitoring and DSM.” Ajay
                                              Mathur, Director General, Indian Bureau of Energy
                                              Efficiency



89
   Ministry of Power, Government of India    • No proven commercial viability for large-scale        standards and protocols for the grid
(2007),‘Report on Key Issues Pertaining
to Indian Power Sector’; expert interviews
                                               smart grid rollouts                                 • Adoption of open source standards to
Jan- Feb 2008.                               • Poor financial health of most state-owned T&D         enable development of applications for the
90
   Not including the potentially large         companies in India, which affects the levels of       smart grid.
benefits of smart grids beyond the
reduction of T&D losses such as DSM,
                                               investment in new technology
integration of renewables and improved       • Low awareness of technological developments,        The Indian government has introduced several
asset management.
                                               with most utilities being unfamiliar with the       policy initiatives to implement some of these
                                               latest options and benefits                         solutions, which are beginning to spur demand
                                             • No coordinated national road map for smart          for smart grid technology.
                                               grid implementation                                             The Electricity Conservation Act was
                                             • The industry is fragmented, with no                 introduced in 2001 and is a legal framework for
                                               standardisation between companies.                  promoting energy efficiency in all sectors of the
                                                                                                   economy, as it also led to the formation of the
                                             “If it is thrust on people, it is likely to be        Bureau of Energy Efficiency. In 2003, the National
                                              rejected.”COO, Distribution Company                  Electricity Act was passed to speed up the
                                                                                                   development of efficiency within the electricity
                                             “The political environment must support the           sector. The 2008 Accelerated Power Development
                                              change to a smarter grid. There are many vested      and Reform Programme (APDRP) v2 has been
                                              interests from those who want to perpetuate this     introduced to accelerate power distribution sector
                                              high loss regime.”India Expert                       reforms. The programme provides 50% of the
                                                                                                   funding needed by utilities for investment as
                                             Overcoming the hurdles in India                       loans and offers 50% of cash loss reduction as a
                                             There are some policies, developments and             grant. The aim is to reduce T&D losses to below
                                             technologies that could help overcome these           15%, improve the commercial viability of the
                                             hurdles. These include:                               sector and enable the adoption of smart
                                                                                                   technology elements across the grids.89
                                             • Creating a national policy roadmap for                          There is also a focus on smart grid
                                               phased rollouts and pilots of smart grid            funding in policy and on new clean technology
                                               technologies                                        funding mechanisms, such as the GHG tax on
                                             • A new focus on smart grid funding policy and        utilities imposed by the Rajasthan Electricity
                                               alternate funding mechanisms (e.g. clean            Regulatory Commission.
                                               development mechanism (CDM) or multilateral                     The Indian government is also looking
                                               institutions)                                       to change the sector’s structure by setting a target
                                             • New clean tech funding mechanisms                   to privatise 25-30% of electricity distribution in
                                             • Staff training in new operating models and          large urban areas by 2012, which helps in getting
                                               capabilities                                        finance for upgrade projects.
                                             • Accelerated privatisation of the distribution
                                               utilities                                           “Under the APDRP v2, there is more emphasis on
                                             • Creation of a smart grid framework for the entire    and funding available for smart technologies.”
                                               Indian electricity grid                              Managing Director, State-owned Distribution
                                             • Establishment of common communication                Company
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The enabling effect
economy in the information age                          03/50




Prevention of the rebound effect requires an
emissions-containing framework (such as emission
caps linked to a global price for carbon) to encourage
the transition to a low carbon economy. Without
such constraints there is no guarantee that efficiency
gains will not lead to increased emissions.


What is at stake?                                       The rebound effect                                    91
                                                                                                                Berkhout, Peter H. G., Jos C. Muskens,
                                                                                                              Jan W. Velthuijsen (2000), ‘Defining the
India needs and will continue to need, smart            In all cases above, at both global and individual     rebound effect’, Energy Policy, Volume
grids to stem losses in T&D (including theft)           country level, ICT has a major role to play in        28, Issues 6-7, June, pp. 425-432;
                                                                                                              Plepsys, A. (2002), ‘The Grey Side of ICT’,
while reducing the carbon intensity of its power        driving efficiency of the economy. However,           Environmental Impact Assessment Review,
generation to help match the growing power              there are hurdles to be overcome, whether             Volume 22, Issue 5, October 2002,
                                                                                                              pp. 509-523.
demand and reduce emissions against a BAU               technological, informational, organisational,
                                                                                                              92
                                                                                                                The causal links between increases in
growth rate. Although the market is currently           market or policy related.                             economic output, economic output and total
dominated by non-ICT players, IT and telecom                        But beyond these hurdles, the             factor productivity remain unclear. Sorell, S
                                                                                                              (2007), The Rebound Effect: an Assessment
providers could extend their current                    academic literature points to some uncertainty in     of the Evidence for Economy-wide Energy
capabilities to deliver solutions for smart grids.      the net impacts of increased efficiency. In theory,   Savings from Improved Energy Efficiency,
                                                                                                              UKERC, http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/
And if they can do that the opportunities are           greater efficiency should lead to less energy use     Downloads/PDF/07/0710ReboundEffect/0
potentially huge.                                       and fewer emissions. However, many are                710ReboundEffectReport.pdf
            Smart grids can directly address critical   concerned that these gains will not be secure.
needs of the Indian electricity sector and could        Efficiency improvements in devices, machines
save 30% of T&D losses, equivalent to 95 MtCO2e         and systems may lead to ‘rebound effects’, where
in 2020. That equates to ¤6.7 billion ($10.5 billion)   overall consumption continues to increase.
in energy savings and ¤1.9 billion ($2.9 billion) in                For example, improved transport
carbon costs. The value at stake globally is            efficiency could result in lower manufacturing
estimated to be ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion)            costs, lower prices, greater purchasing power and,
(Detailed assumption in Appendix 3).90                  as a result, increased demand for products and
            Smart grid technology may also have         services.91 Using technology that saves time (e.g.
impacts in other countries and regions. In              teleworking which reduces the commute to work,
California, for example, smart grids may meet           for example) may mean more time is available for
additional needs, such as improving grid stability,     other, potentially higher-carbon activities such as
improving planning and forecasting (financials)         holidays or shopping. In the past, pervasive, more
and ‘grid-to-vehicle’ solutions in which multiple       efficient technologies such as the steam engine or
hybrid car batteries (when not in use) could be         the electric motor have actually increased
used to provide temporary storage and supply of         society’s energy use as economies have become
power. Globally, smart grids offer the opportunity      more productive.92
to save up to 2.03 GtCO2e by 2020.                                  ICT technologies can improve
                                                        efficiency and this will lead to reduced emissions.
                                                        However, prevention of the rebound effect
                                                        requires an emissions-containing framework
                                                        (such as emission caps linked to a global price for
                                                        carbon) to encourage the transition to a low
                                                        carbon economy. Without such constraints there
                                                        is no guarantee that efficiency gains will not lead
                                                        to increased emissions.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The enabling effect
economy in the information age                          03/51




Conclusion                                              It is becoming clear that incremental change is not
ICT can make a major contribution to the global         going to be enough to tackle climate change to the
response to climate change. It could deliver up         degree and at the speed required to keep carbon
to a 15% reduction of BAU emissions in 2020             at ‘safe’ levels in the atmosphere. Nothing less
(7.8 GtCO2e), representing a value of ¤553 billion      than a shift from a high to low carbon global
($872.3 billion) in energy and fuel saved and an        economy is required and in many cases ICT
additional ¤91 billion ($143.5 billion) in carbon       appears to offer the best way to accelerate this.
saved assuming a cost of carbon of ¤20/tonne,           But much more needs to be done if the ICT sector
for a total of ¤644 billion ($1,015 billion) savings.   is to perform this role and the final chapter
This saving in CO2e is more than five times the         suggests a framework for getting there.
 size of the sector’s own footprint and its size
demonstrates the important role an advanced
communications platform can play in the
transition to a low carbon economy.
            This opportunity can be broadly
categorised into three roles for ICT: standardising,
monitoring and therefore increasing
accountability of energy consumption; rethinking
how we live, play, learn and work based on those
data; and transforming existing value chains and
integrating infrastructure processes and systems
across all sectors of the economy.
            ICT could achieve additional step
change savings though technological advances
in the future but these are harder to quantify and
have not been included in the above figures.
For example, future technologies such as global
freight exchanges – where hauliers and couriers
can buy and sell work – could stimulate greater
efficiency and behavior change that would allow
further dematerialisation. Machine-to-machine
communication would allow for continued
optimisation of energy and industrial systems,
often invisible to the consumer.
            Rather than painting an a futuristic
picture of a low carbon society in 2020 and then
looking at what would be needed to achieve it,
the analysis conducted for this report relied on
historic trends to derive a highly pragmatic set of
impacts for the ICT sector going forward and
identified the hurdles that could stand in the way.
Smart2020 English
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The SMART 2020 transformation
                                               economy in the information age                         04/53




                                               04: The SMART 2020
                                               Transformation


93
  For data centre information in particular,   There is no guarantee that the opportunities           • Standardise: Develop protocols to enable
see the McKinsey/Uptime Institute
report Uptime Institute and McKinsey &         presented in this report will be developed at scale      smart systems to interact
Company (2008), Revolutionizing Data           or deliver the emissions reductions identified.        • Monitor: Make energy and carbon
Center Efficiency—Key Analyses, http://
uptimeinstitute.org/content/view/168/57                    The ICT sector must not only seek new        missions visible
                                               partnerships but also act to slow the growth of        • Account: Link monitoring to accountability
                                               the carbon footprint from its own products and           and organisational decision making
                                               services. This will require companies to develop       • Rethink: Optimise for energy efficiency
                                               new approaches to product and market                     and find alternatives to high carbon growth
                                               development and move fast to grasp                     • Transform: Implement low carbon
                                               opportunities.                                           infrastructure solutions across all sectors
                                                           Even where technology solutions are          at scale.
                                               available and there are pressing economic and
                                               efficiency reasons to adopt that new technology,       The companies within the ICT sector should first
                                               there are challenges that require action from          apply this framework to their own operations,
                                               other stakeholders. However financially desirable      products and services.
                                               solutions may be, they often do not happen.
                                               Although some governments are taking action,           Applying the SMART framework to ICT
                                               much more could be done to help the ICT                products and services
                                               sector take the lead in the transition to a low        If a SMART ICT-based infrastructure is to have
                                               carbon economy.                                        the impact that the report identifies, the sector
                                                           Policy makers need to send clear signals   itself must comply with the highest efficiency
                                               that overall emissions reductions will be required.    and innovation standards for its own products
                                               Further, they will need to harmonise policies to       and services.
                                               enable the “smart” infrastructure needed for a                     More efficient ICT products and
                                               low carbon economy and focus on integrating ICT        services are being developed, but take-up is low
                                               requirements into building codes and transport,        today and will need to be accelerated.93 Like the
                                               energy, environmental and innovation policies.         shift from desktops to laptops, a structural change
                                               Setting up these appropriate policy frameworks,        in the devices used to connect to the internet will
                                               incentives, new business models and partnerships       be needed to achieve more than incremental
                                               would facilitate knowledge transfer and                reductions in emissions.
                                               implementation of the technology. Such actions                     As mobile networks roll out
                                               would entail an unprecedented but not                  in developing economies, they will need
                                               unachievable level of coordination and                 secure sources of power, including decentralised
                                               collaboration across sectors and between business      clean power. Development and adoption of IT
                                               and government.                                        architectural paradigm shifts (e.g. virtualisation
                                                                                                      across all ICT assets) has the potential to
                                               SMART framework: requirements for a low                radically change current expectations of
                                               carbon infrastructure                                  energy efficiency.
                                               The SMART framework introduced in Chapter 3                        Next steps for the ICT sector to reduce
                                               and set out below outlines what needs to happen        its own direct footprint include the following
                                               for this reduction in emissions to be realised.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                  The SMART 2020 transformation
economy in the information age                       04/54




Standardise                                          Transform
Ensure that the standards organisations working      Systematically follow best practice for rollout
in the ICT industry bring climate change             of new products. Transform the ICT sector to an
considerations into their existing work. Energy      exemplar of low carbon technology. Source low
consumption should be an important component         carbon power wherever possible and in particular
of all ICT technical standards. Ensure               support the use of renewable energy. ICT
standardisation of measurement methods across        companies can also use their own products to
the whole life of products and services to           demonstrate where dematerialisaion is possible.
understand emissions from raw material               As the internet becomes more integrated within
extraction, through manufacturing, in use and        developed and emerging economies, substitution
from final disposal.                                 of activities such as transport will become easier.

Monitor                                              Applying SMART to other sectors -
Use ICT technologies to monitor energy               the SMART framework
consumption of ICT products and networks and         Beyond its own operations and products, a major
feed the information back into technology            opportunity for both ICT businesses and their
optimisation. Ensure that the monitoring is          sectoral counterparts will be in capturing the
consistent throughout companies. Monitoring          ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion) of savings at stake
devices and tools for power management should        in optimising processes and systems in industry,
be required as standard. Remote monitoring and       power, transport and buildings to make them
control of systems should be applied wherever        more efficient.
appropriate.                                                     The first stage in cutting emissions is
                                                     monitoring what they are, wherever they occur
Account                                              and ICT is crucial to this process. Once emissions
Make energy and emissions transparent all along      levels and inefficiencies are identified, these data
the supply chain by reporting and labelling. Use     can be used to change operating models,
this information to optimise products and services   supporting systems and behaviour. These
in each innovation cycle. Incorporate the cost of    monitoring tools could be used to reduce energy
carbon into current decision making processes to     consumption and GHG emissions.
future proof the cost of manufacturing and                       The most powerful opportunity
operating new products and services, in              (7.3 GtCO2e) for ICT to reduce emissions in other
preparation for having an enforced cost of           sectors is by providing data to enable efficiency
carbon in the future.                                by optimising processes with a combination of
                                                     behaviour change and automation. The key
Rethink                                              elements of a SMART innovation framework to
The sector needs to continue to rethink and          realise these opportunities – and to go further –
research radical innovation across high-             are developed below (Fig. 14).
emission devices and services. The information
above will enable the sector to optimise its own     Standardise: Develop protocols to enable
operations and product development for               smart systems to interact
energy reductions.                                   Standards for calculating carbon emissions and
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The SMART 2020 transformation
                                                  economy in the information age                          04/55




                                                  “We need standards for networking in buildings
                                                   similar to those created by the Internet Engineering
                                                   Task Force standards – we want lights, HVAC, etc. to
                                                   operate the same in all countries.” Bruce Nordman,
                                                   LBNL


94
   For example, in buildings, it is likely that   energy consumption are called for in every policy       place, applications would soon create new ways of
this would initially be protocol translation,
encapsulation and message broking. At a
                                                  discussion on climate change and are critical to        using buildings, travelling or manufacturing.
later point a dominant protocol is likely to      innovation and to bringing one-off solutions to         Already, the ITU is proceeding to develop
emerge if professional societies, building
component manufactures, ICT providers and
                                                  scale. However, the major efficiency opportunities      standards to support scientific monitoring and
energy utilities work together.                   identified in this report – services and cross-sector   networking in automobiles, among others.95
95
  See the climate change related standards        platforms – require not only measurement but                        Like the IP suite of protocols, which
on the ITU website http://www.itu.int/
themes/climate/ and their report http://
                                                  also messaging between devices.                         have grown over the lifetime of the internet,
www.itu.int/ITU-D/cyb/app/e-env.html                          One of the reasons for the ICT sector’s     layers of standards and protocols in the wider
                                                  success is because it has developed layers of           built environment would take some time to
                                                  internationally standardised ways for machines          develop. Concerns about the security implications
                                                  to communicate with one another. International          of every device having an IP address would need
                                                  dialling codes, which have been around for more         to be addressed. Reliability issues would also
                                                  than a century, or the .com domain names are            require more research.
                                                  both obvious standards that allow rapid
                                                  innovation and rollout of services. Protocols,          Monitor: Make energy and carbon
                                                  or the rules that allow machines to send messages       emissions visible
                                                  between each other, are hidden to the average           Many companies do not know where energy is
                                                  user but underpin the internet’s rapid                  being consumed, whether in the manufacture
                                                  development. TCP/IP actually refers to a set            or use of their products and services. Many
                                                  of interconnected protocols that support email          utilities in the developing world are blind to the
                                                  and internet connectivity. XML, one of the              consumption and loss of energy. Individual
                                                  specifications that underpin blogging or social         functions and departments rarely coordinate to
                                                  networking applications, also allows the                understand how to pool resources or reduce
                                                  development of applications that manage                 energy efficiently.
                                                  an organisation’s supply chains.                                     There are steps that can be taken today
                                                              A stack of interoperable protocols          to reduce power across industry and buildings by
                                                  allowing for the communications between                 better monitoring. Smart meters and remote
                                                  devices, applications and the standardisation of        measurement and monitoring allow the grid to see
                                                  information exchange would allow more effective         where the highest T&D losses exist or the greatest
                                                  monitoring, control and minimisation of energy          consumption is occurring. Already a number of
                                                  use and carbon emissions. Applied to buildings,         companies worldwide are rolling out smart
                                                  industry, power and transport sectors, it would         metering solutions to improve knowledge of
                                                  enable communication between refrigerators and          consumption and reduce electricity outages.
                                                  smart electricity meters, thermostats and               Homes and offices with smart meters are the first
                                                  generation facilities, GIS systems and delivery         step to a smart home and a smart grid.
                                                  trucks, or motor systems and factory databases.94                    In industry, short-term opportunities
                                                  This would, for example, allow a user to turn off       would rely on retrofitting existing motors
                                                  the home air conditioning from the office, or           systems with smarter control devices and
                                                  optimise of route planning based on the real time       requiring new motors to be fitted with VSDs.
                                                  movement of vehicles.                                   Wireless communication will facilitate the
                                                              Once this SMART infrastructure is in        exchange of data, placement of sensory systems
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The SMART 2020 transformation
economy in the information age                        04/56




and mobility of equipment, allowing for better        There may be surprises – some e-commerce               96
                                                                                                                Porter, Michael and Forest Reinhardt,
                                                                                                             Grist: A Strategic Approach to Climate
monitoring of consumption.                            solutions that increase the number of trips taken      Change, Harvard Business Review, October
             Monitoring goods and vehicles is the     to deliver a single product may no longer be           2007.
first step towards optimising logistics for           viable. However, advanced videoconferencing
reduction of mileage or the number of trips taken     solutions may be in further demand to reduce
to deliver goods. Commercial travel will benefit      business travel where uncertainty in transport
from RFID and data exchange standardisation,          fuel prices or pressure to reduce emissions
which will allow goods to be tracked across           increases.
borders and suppliers. Visibility of energy and                   A range of policies and business
fuel consumed helps reduce cost, waste and            practices would encourage accountability and
emissions.                                            accounting and will differ by region. In China, the
                                                      government plans to audit the top 1,008 highest-
Account: Link monitoring to accountability            emitting companies, encouraging skills training or
In this context, “account” has two facets – one       subsidising technology transfer to enable energy
is accountability for emissions and the other is      efficiency improvements. In North America,
accounting for them in business decisions.            ESCOs that finance efficiency are becoming more
            First and foremost, ICT tools enable      common and these companies will compete on
transparency and accountability. Companies may        their ability to account for energy accurately.
be required to know where along their supply
chains emissions are highest and report these to      Rethink: Optimise for energy efficiency and
their stakeholders. Consumers increasingly            find alternatives to high carbon growth
demand energy efficiency and even carbon              Standards, monitoring and accounting (SMA)
labelling for products.                               achieve operational awareness at the company
            Secondly, for individual companies,       wor government level.
knowing where they use energy or produce                          However, SMA is not the whole
emissions and allocating a price of carbon to those   picture. Using this information to optimise for
emissions, can help them to better understand         energy efficiency in value chains and maintain
how climate change presents a risk in their           profitability in spite of the rising costs of fuel –
operations and value chain.96 For local               or expected price for carbon – is a first step to
governments, a similar challenge exists to            SMART approaches to climate change. The next
understand where in a local area or city energy       step is to rethink operating and business models.
consumption is highest.                                           Awareness of how climate change will
            A number of sectors can respond           shape demand is also crucial to innovating for the
according to where energy is consumed. Energy         low carbon economy. A society that delivers
accounting and smarter billing would follow from      growth using a fraction of the fossil fuels that
smart meters. The monitoring, optimising and          have driven both productivity and growth for the
management of energy could be integrated              last 300 years will look very different from the
throughout industrial processes and logistics,        low carbon society of tomorrow. It might even
where there is currently no way of accounting for     look better. For example, it would be appealing to
the energy consumed in a good’s lifecycle.            many to avoid idling in traffic on the morning
                                                      commute and instead to work from home, enabled
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The SMART 2020 transformation
                                          economy in the information age                        04/57




                                          “When people are ready to change behaviour, that’s
                                           when ICT’s impact could be greatest.” Joseph Romm,
                                           Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress




97
   Mitchell Bill (2007), ‘Transforming    by broadband and better collaboration                 Efficiencies can be achieved throughout a
Workplaces’ in Kevin O’Donnell and        technologies.                                         neighbourhood or city, in a way that is not
Wolfgang Wagener (eds.) ‘Connected Real
Estate’, Torworth Publishing.                         It is the long-term potential of ICT to   possible in a single building. More efficient
                                          completely transform existing operating systems       inventory and distribution management systems
                                          and business models that will have the biggest        could save 50% floor space in retail and
                                          impact on emissions reductions. What new              warehouses, e-commerce could cut retail floor
                                          technologies, products and services will customers    space and e-learning could reduce classroom
                                          and citizens demand that do not exist today?          requirements by 50%.
                                          What new business models will be the most
                                          effective at delivering these? Strategic approaches   “Far greater architectural and management
                                          to climate change will involve understanding not       benefits can be realised by critically departing
                                          only how to do what we currently do more               from [current building design] assumptions and
                                          efficiently, but how we can do things differently.     exploiting the new design opportunities this
                                                      The ICT sector will be in a position to    enables than by simply networking traditionally
                                          enable new ways of learning, travelling, working       programmed buildings and filling them with
                                          and living.                                            electronic devices.” Professor of Architecture
                                                      In this report, dematerialisation,         and Media Arts and Sciences, MIT97
                                          teleworking and videoconferencing made up
                                          a small percentage (500 MtCO2e) of a nearly           Home automation technologies have the potential
                                          8 GtCO2e opportunity that consists largely            to bring many of the efficiencies found in larger
                                          of efficiency measures. However, new                  buildings into the home. It is already possible,
                                          dematerialisation services will be crucial            if not much practised, to monitor smart devices
                                          complements to efficiency in the transition           throughout the home. As homes become
                                          to a low carbon society.                              increasingly networked, owners will be able to
                                                      For example, if buildings are viewed      control heating or lighting remotely and utilities
                                          holistically as part of the living/working built      will use the data to make better predictions about
                                          environment, a comprehensive approach                 peak load.
                                          encompassing the design, recommissioning and                      Smart grids and their capacity for
                                          use phases could integrate efficiency and             delivering decentralised energy have the potential
                                          dematerialisation. Optimising space, heat, cooling    to radically change the way electricity is
                                          and light and other requirements at the design        generated and delivered, in India and throughout
                                          phase reduces the materials needed for initial        the world. Smart grids could allow renewable
                                          build as well as reducing the energy consumption      energy to be fed into the grid, decarbonising
                                          later, where most of buildings emissions are          supply. They can allow local renewable energy
                                          concentrated. A smarter BMS can “learn” or            generators to cover localised surges in demand
                                          self-adapt based on the behaviour of the              and contribute to a more diversified energy mix,
                                          occupants, recognising inefficiencies and             thereby improving energy security.
                                          adjusting systems such as HVAC accordingly.                       Similarly, machine-to-machine
                                          Complementing this change with teleworking            communication in factories could transform the
                                          could avoid demand for new office floor space and     way that products are ordered, manufactured and
                                          lead to further emissions reductions.                 delivered. Intelligent systems control would allow
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                  The SMART 2020 transformation
economy in the information age                       04/58




Fig. 14 SMART 2020: Next steps




                                                                                      Transform
                                            Rethink                                   ICT direct action
           Standardise,                                                              •Systematically follow best
           Monitor &                        ICT direct action
                                                                                      practice for rollout of new
                                                                                      products
           Account                         •Continue to rethink and                  •Transform the ICT sector to
                                            research radical innovation               an exemplar of low carbon
          ICT direct action                 across high emission devices              technology
         •Ensure standards for energy       and services                             •Source green power wherever
          measurement are included in      •Rethink and implement radical             possible
          all technical standards           architectural innovations (e.g.          •ICT companies can also use
         •Monitor energy consistently       virtualisation across all IT              their own products to
          across companies                  assets) to significantly reduce           demonstrate where
         •Account for energy in the         ICT’s emissions even further              dematerialisation is possible
          supply chain
                                            ICT enabling action                       ICT enabling action
          ICT enabling action              •Optimise systems and                     •Practice open innovation to
         •Extend existing ICT protocols     processes for energy efficiency           accelerate low carbon solutions
          into other sectors (e.g.         •Extend existing ICT capabilities         •Integrate climate change into
          implementing TCP/IP into          into other sectors,                       company innovation strategy
          even small devices such as        (e.g. monitoring, sensing or             •Carry out pilot projects to test
          lighting or appliances)           services)                                 business case
         •Provide products and services    •Continue to develop affordable           •Partner with other sectors
          to support the collection         remote collaboration and                  to implement smart and
          and analysis of energy            communication tools                       integrated approaches –
          consumption from device          •Develop new methods                       or platforms – for energy
          creation through to its end       for substituting high carbon              management of systems
          use and disposal                  with low carbon activities                and processes

          Policy Action                     Policy Action                             Policy Action
         •Encourage standards bodies       •Set stretching objectives for            • Develop a coordinated policy
          to include energy in technical    energy efficiency and/or                   framework for scaling up
          standards from the beginning      targets for emissions                      efficiency solutions and low
          of their development              reductions where                           carbon alternatives
         •Require consistent                demonstrably effective                   • Initiate public–private
          measurement of energy             alternatives to high carbon                partnerships
          and emissions                     activities exist                         • Establish fiscal incentives
         •Require interoperable            •Require sufficient connectivity            for every efficiency
          open standards for device         to deliver solutions
          communication
         • RFID and data exchange
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The SMART 2020 transformation
economy in the information age                        04/59




“You need to sell the idea of smart grids,
 to demonstrate their effectiveness – only
 pilot projects will work.” K. Ramanathan,
 Distinguished Fellow, Teri




for self-diagnosis and reporting on machine           Chapter 3 detailed the hurdles to be overcome.
performance. Standard operating platforms for         Lack of information, lack of supportive
robotics could facilitate software reusability and    organisational structures, lack of clear market
interoperability, enabling the wider use of           opportunities and lack of targeted policy were
efficiency applications and eventually allowing       identified as barriers to implementation and scale.
for self-optimisation at the factory level. The       In all cases, a lack of standardised ways of
industrial process could even connect back more       measuring and reporting energy use makes it
directly with consumers so that they understand       difficult to coordinate economy-wide solutions.
more clearly the impact of their choices on the       Among the most challenging hurdles are the
manufacturing process.                                fragmentation in logistics and power generation
            The opportunity for efficient logistics   markets, lack of training and skills to manage
is spread over many activities, with small gains in   complex BMS or a smart grid and lack of
each. The overall effect is larger than single        technology transfer and financing mechanisms
opportunities like efficient motors, but takes a      for implementing energy efficiency measures
much more coordinated approach. The major             across power and other industry sectors. These
gains will be reductions in the number of empty       and other hurdles identified will be overcome
vehicles on return journeys, better overall           only by a combination of company leadership,
network management and minimised travel and           disruptive innovation, government policies and
packaging throughout. Open transport                  behaviour change.
management systems will allow for traffic and                     There is much debate about how to
road configuration information to be passed to        spur innovation and overcome hurdles to social
route planning platforms, resulting in mileage        and technological low carbon transition.
reductions. Open freight exchange platforms           Experiments, pilots and demonstrations are a
will allow for vehicle loads to be optimised thus     necessary part of the innovation process.
reducing the number of empty vehicle miles            This currently happens as a matter of course in
travelled. Integrated supplier gateways will allow    “clusters” such as Silicon Valley where venture
companies to share haulage and, closer to 2020,       capital investment allows start-ups to compete
the full automation of highway systems would          to provide solutions. In California, Silver Spring
greatly improve the efficiency of traffic flow.       Networks is moving beyond providing smart
                                                      meters to pioneering the underpinning
Transform: Implement smart, low carbon                networking technology of a smart grid.
infrastructure at scale                                           But start-ups alone may not be able
Scaling up low carbon ICT solutions described         to deliver solutions at scale. Large companies
above is essential. Reducing T&D losses on the        have a crucial role to play in finding the small
Indian grid by 30% will need to involve not one       companies that are innovating and pulling their
utility, but many across the country. Putting BMSs    ideas into scalable products and services. Open
in 40% of new buildings in North America is           innovation98 is the process by which companies
possible, but not inevitable. Reducing flight time    draw on distributed knowledge networks, by
even by 3% – if applied over 80% of flights – adds    developing new models of IP-sharing and
up to energy savings that aren’t possible if          business model prototyping. Open innovation
implemented by just one company.                      business practices by companies that build
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The SMART 2020 transformation
economy in the information age                        04/60




                                                                                                             98
climate change mitigation into their business         For each sector, the opportunities                       Chesborough, H (2003), Open Innovation:
                                                                                                             The New Imperative for Creating and
strategy will be necessary to achieve the             will be captured by means of partnership and           Profiting from Technology, Harvard
development of SMART infrastructure quickly           providing services to all sectors. Market incentives   Business Press.
                                                                                                             99
and at scale.                                         are needed to accelerate the implementation and           Bernice Lee, Chatham House, Energy &
                                                                                                             Climate Change Programme.
            Every city can be the cluster for         uptake of micro or renewable energy generation.
SMART solutions, because it is where the homes,       Germany and Spain have successfully
grids, industry and transport solutions intersect.    implemented feed-in tariffs that encourage
Cities are home to over 50% of the world’s            renewables, for example. Public-private
population and are responsible for 75% of global      partnerships may also play a role.
emissions. Mass urbanisation seems set to             Policies need to be performance-based rather
continue. Developing the blueprints for               than technology-specific, in order to ensure
sustainable urban infrastructures will be             targets are met with innovative approaches.
fundamental to whether we will be able to             Different policies suit each market and context.
significantly reduce our emissions to a safe level.   For example, smart grids in India are needed to
            Policy support is needed for innovation   prevent theft and losses, whereas in California
to occur at scale. Encouraging experimentation,       they will be more crucial in facilitating efficient
as some national governments have done in the         use of energy by consumers.
name of competitiveness, may accelerate the
transformation. Countries such as South Korea         Policy action to achieve the SMART ICT
have already identified the presence of high-         opportunity will include (Fig. 14):
speed internet and mobile – along with other IT
services – as essential to economic development       Standardise: Encourage standards bodies to
and government/industry partnerships aim to           include considerations for energy consumption in
bring ubiquitous connectivity to the country.         technical standards from the beginning of their
China’s circular economy approach which               development. Ensure that privacy and reliability
recognises the strategic role of resource             issues that arise as data collection increases are
productivity is being developed into law, chiefly     addressed.
because environmental pollution is recognised
as constraining economic growth. China is also        Monitor: Require consistent measurement of
investing in low carbon innovation zones99 –          carbon emissions across sectors.
like the free economic zones that drove
economic development – to ensure China’s              Account: Accountability to the public will be
global competitiveness in low carbon solutions.       expected first from government and from the
The Dutch approach is transition management           businesses it regulates. National to municipal
which takes a long-term, systems approach to          governments can demonstrate what is possible by
societal change. In this model, micro-level           reporting all activities and then require businesses
solutions can take off at the macro-level when        to do the same .
technology, behaviour, policy and institutions
are jointly engaged in learning about a specific      Rethink: Set stretching objectives for energy
societal transition. ICT could accelerate that        efficiency and/or targets for emissions reductions
process.                                              where demonstrably effective alternatives to high
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The SMART 2020 transformation
economy in the information age                        04/61




The ICT industry, in partnership with other
emitting sectors, has a key role to play in
helping make society’s impact visible and to
demonstrate in aggregate the demand for new
ways of reducing that impact.



carbon activities exist. Fund research into new       emissions around the world. The efficiencies
technologies and business models and fund pilot       identified in this report could simply lead to the
projects in local contexts. Ensure the most energy    consumption of more high carbon products. This
efficient connectivity is supported.                  is not an option, which is why absolute caps in
                                                      international emissions are important. Better
Transform: Establish fiscal incentives to promote     information in real time on the optimal places
the mass scale-up of transformational ICT             to introduce caps or targets would help ease the
technologies. Develop coordination mechanisms         transition for all sectors as they seek to cut their
to ensure consistency in reporting of energy use      emissions dramatically.
or emissions across policy areas that cover                       The ICT industry, in partnership with
communications, energy and transport,                 other emitting sectors, has a key role to play in
environmental performance, climate change,            helping make society’s impact visible and to
waste, buildings, skills and innovation. Where        demonstrate in aggregate the demand for new
technology is required in the built environment,      ways of reducing that impact. We begin to
require interoperable open standards between          transform our infrastructure only if we can see
devices in homes, cars/trucks, public transport,      easily where the leakage occurs and are able to
offices, on the power grid and in factories.          use this feedback to change business and
Set an example by procuring of low carbon             operating models, our systems and our own
products/services.                                    behaviour. The same tools could be used across
                                                      all GHG emissions, not only carbon, to come closer
Ultimately, the learning and experimentation on       to zero waste and zero emissions targets.
drafting policies and testing technologies would                  ICT can enable the transition to a low
need to be fed back into standards processes and      carbon economy and also begin to build the
allow further new substitutes to be developed and     infrastructure, services and products that a low
implemented at scale.                                 carbon society will demand.
            The complexity of the solutions                       Now is the time for the industry and
requires companies to partner as well as compete,     government to act.
governments to develop innovation-led
approaches for new types of development and,
above all, financial institutions to redirect
investment towards new solutions. The challenge
cannot be underestimated, but there is little
choice but to meet it, as the consequences of
not doing so will be much tougher to bear.

Concluding remarks
Since Thomas Newcomen invented the steam
engine in 1712, society has steamed ahead with
an industrial revolution delivering both efficiency
and productivity, but has also witnessed a rapid
increase in energy consumption and carbon
Smart2020 English
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   Scope, process and methodology
economy in the information age                        Appendix 1/63




Appendix 1: Scope, process and
methodology


Scope and methodology                                 models were developed, one to understand the
The study set out to understand the role of           direct footprint and the other to identify and
the ICT sector in the transition to a low carbon      quantify indirect or enabling opportunities.
economy, both by reducing its own footprint           To ensure accuracy and credibility of the
and by enabling emissions reductions across           approach, the methodology and content were
the economy.                                          shared with experts and stakeholders globally.
                                                                  The second phase involved in-depth
The analysis therefore set out to answer three key    case studies around five areas where the analysis
questions, all measured in CO2e:                      suggested the greatest emissions reductions
                                                      opportunities were possible using ICT solutions.
1. What is the impact of the products and services    In four of those cases, value opportunities were
   of the ICT sector?                                 also developed.
2. What is the potential impact if ICT were applied               The third phase involved an assessment
   to reduce emissions in other sectors such as       of the imperatives for each stakeholder
   transport or power?                                (technology providers, technology users,
3. What are the market opportunities for the ICT      investors and regulators) to accelerate adoption of
   industry and other high-tech sectors in            the illustrated case studies. Workshops were held
   enabling the low carbon economy?                   with global experts and stakeholders to discuss
                                                      potential opportunities and barriers. The outcome
For the purposes of this report, the ICT sector       of this communication was a clearer
covers:                                               understanding of the imperatives for industry
                                                      and policy emerging from the case studies.
• PCs and peripherals: workstations; laptops;
  desktops and; peripherals such as monitors          Direct ICT impact methodology
  and printers                                        To assess the direct impact of ICT on the global
• IT services: data centres and their component       carbon footprint, the contribution of each
  servers; storage and cooling                        component within scope was analysed. Each of
• Telecoms networks and devices: network              the drivers for emission growth was then assessed
  infrastructure components; mobile phones;           on a by-product basis.
  chargers; broadband routers and IPTV boxes.                    The research utilised the latest
                                                      estimates of the current global emissions of the
It does not include consumer electronics such as      sector components, penetration rates of ICT
TVs, video equipment, gaming, audio devices and       devices and infrastructure, and estimates of global
media players or other electronic equipment such      population and sectoral growth to 2020. Data
as medical imaging devices.                           were gathered from: relevant publicly available
           This study was carried out in three key    studies; academic and industry literature;
stages over a period of six months, from October      expertise provided by the partners; and primary
2007 to March 2008.                                   research as appropriate, including consumer
           The first phase of the project aimed to    surveys, and expert interviews.
quantify the direct and indirect global impact of                The analysis aimed to be as
ICT on GHG emissions until 2020. Two basic            comprehensive as possible, using the ‘cradle-to-
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Scope, process and methodology
economy in the information age                         Appendix 1/64




                                                                                                              100
grave’ approach to carbon emissions, and as such,      McKinsey analysed the significance and cost of            Gartner estimates; McKinsey trend
                                                                                                              extrapolation; McManus, T (2002), ‘Moore’s
incorporating emissions data from manufacture,         each available method of reducing or ‘abating’         Law and PC Power’, presentation toTulane
transport, use and disposal wherever possible.         emissions relative to BAU projections. The study       Engineering Forum, www.sse.tulane.edu/
                                                                                                              Tef/Slides/Tulane-Moore’s%20Law%20
                                                       covered a number of areas where emissions are          Sept02.ppt, IDC data
The direct model was calculated based on four          significant: power; manufacturing; industry;           101
                                                                                                                 IVF Industrial Research and
main components:                                       transport; residential and commercial buildings;       Development Corp (2007), Preparatory
                                                                                                              Studies for Eco-Design Requirements of
                                                       forestry; agriculture; and waste disposal. It also     Energy-using Products (EuP): Lot 3 – PCs
• Market growth and penetration of devices             covered six regions: North America; Western            (desktops and laptops) Final Report.
                                                                                                              102
  to 2020 based on industry reports100 and             Europe; Eastern Europe including Russia; other            Enkvist P., T. Naucler T. and J. Rosander
                                                                                                              (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for Greenhouse
  McKinsey analysis. In each section of the direct     developed countries; and China and other               Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey Quarterly,
  footprint in this report, the components are         developing nations (including India), over time        Number 1.

  identified along with assumptions of growth.         periods to 2010, 2020 and 2030. For the purposes
  Growth in India and China was of particular          of this report, a time horizon of 2020 was used.
  relevance                                                        The enabling model set out to
• Energy consumption of the components                 understand how ICT applications could play a role
  based on publicly available or company data          in each of the emissions abatement solutions in
• Emissions factor. To calculate the emissions         the cost curve. Of the 21.9 GtCO2e of abatement
  from the energy consumption, an emissions            available by 2020, 7.8 GtCO2e will involve a major
  factor was used based on McKinsey and                role for ICT. It will also have a minor involvement
  Vattenfall’s cost curve work. The conversion         with other further abatements, although not all
  from energy consumption to carbon is based on        solutions could be included in the report.
  the carbon intensity of electricity generation in                In order to inform the model and to
  each region on a pa basis and includes total         better quantify the role of ICT in the opportunities
  carbon emissions generated at source.                identified through the cost curve work, four
  Transmission losses were also calculated for each    opportunities were analysed in detail, chosen
  region. Transmission figures for conversion          because of the size of their abatement potential,
  differed in each region and year                     the scale of the economic opportunity and the
• Embodied carbon. The calculation of CO2e as          quality of data available:
  part of the manufacturing process of the
  components is calculated based on publicly           • Logistics in Europe (including urban and
  available data101 or company data. Energy              non-urban road transport, passenger and freight
  consumed for end-of-life treatment (disposal,          transport across all vehicle modes – road, air
  landfill and recycling) was included in the            and sea)
  embodied energy estimates of ICT devices             • Industry in China (including motor systems,
  where data was available, as outlined in detail in     process industries)
  Appendix 2.                                          • Power in India (including generation, T&D,
                                                         supply mix and demand sources)
The ICT industry is dynamic, fast-growing and          • Buildings in North America (including
subject to the emergence of disruptive                   residential, office, warehouses, other
technologies and paradigm shifts. It is difficult to     commercial).
predict the changes that are likely to take place
within the industry over the period 2008-2020.         In addition to these four case studies based on
For this reason, a number of assumptions have          cost curve analysis, dematerialisation was chosen
been made in this report when analysing the            as fifth study item. Research involved extensive
direct footprint of the ICT sector, which are          primary research, including expert and company
detailed in Appendix 2.                                interviews, regional interviews and site visits, as
                                                       well as extensive literature reviews.
Enabling impact methodology
The enabling model drew on McKinsey’s previous
work with Vattenfall on GHG reduction cost
curve.102 The cost curve set out to identify on a
global scale the supply of emissions abatement
solutions and rank them by cost to society.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                      The direct impact assumptions
               economy in the information age                                           Appendix 2/65




               Appendix 2: The direct impact
               assumptions
Drivers        Market growth      Constituting                           Power                        Embodied carbon            Abatements (as
               and penetration of elements                               consumption                                             discussed in detail
               devices to 2020                                                                                                   in report itself)

PCs            • Gartner on installed        • Desktops v laptops        • Historic growth of         • Figures assessed         •Device change.
                 base up to 2011             • Commercial v                power consumption            based on European
               • Extrapolated growth           consumer                    per PC unit including        Commission DG TREN:
                 trends                      • CRT v LCD for PCs           monitors                     EuP preparatory study,
               • Capped at 2020 US             (CRT assumed to           • Assume effect of             TREN/D1/40-2005,
                 penetration per capita        decrease to 0% in           efficiency gains and         Lot 3.
               • Assumed 20%                   2020).                      increased computation
                 of desktops are                                           requirements
                 workstations.                                           • Workstations consume
                                                                           2.5 times desktop in all
                                                                           modes
                                                                         • Commercial usage:
                                                                           14 hours/day
                                                                         • Consumer usage:
                                                                           three hours/day
                                                                         • Desktop standby
                                                                           achieves 15W Energy
                                                                           Star rating.

Telecoms       • Yankee user                 • Mobile penetration        • Mobile phones              • Integrated product       • Converge to 1W
                 connections for               capped for 2020 to        • Charging phone               policy pilot project       standby before 2020
devices          broadband and mobile          0.92 (US penetration)       0.5 kWh                      Stage 1 Final            • Reduce W in recharge
                 up to 2011, historic        • Mobile devices, IPTV      • Standby charging             Report: “Life Cycle        over the same duration.
                 trends up to 2020             boxes, routers.             13 kWh                       Environmental Issues
               • IDC penetration on                                      • Constant in time IPTV        of Mobile Phones”,
                 IPTV up to 2010,                                        • IPTV rating: 25W.            Nokia, 2005
                 constant growth after                                     Active 40% of rated        • Assume router: 1/3 of
                 that.                                                     standby 20% of rated         laptop
                                                                           three hours of active      • IPTV: 1/2 of laptop.
                                                                           TV usage, rest of the
                                                                           time in standby
                                                                         • Routers: from
                                                                           European code of
                                                                           conduct. Five active
                                                                           hours, rest of the time
                                                                           in standby.


Telecoms       • Yankee user connection      • Fixed-line                                             • “Mobile Embodied         • Embodied carbon stays
                 for fixed, mobile,          • Mobile                                                   Carbon from                constant as percentage
networks         broadband up to 2011,       • Broadband                                                Sustainable Energy         of network energy
                 historic growth up to       • Cable operators                                          Use in Mobile              consumption over time.
                 2020.                         (broadband only)                                         Communications”,
                                             • Satellite not included                                   Ericsson, August 2007,
                                             • Specific fixed network                                   White Paper.
                                               configurations
                                               such as NGN were
                                               not accounted for
                                               separately.


Data centres   • For each server type        • Three kinds of servers;   • Three types of servers:    • Assumed 4% of            • Virtualisation and
                 IDC data up to 2011 for       and data storage units.     200, 500, 6000 W/unit        total data centre life     cooling.
                 sales. Projected global                                 • Projected growth in          cycle analysis (LCA)
                 2002 installed base                                       consumption and on           footprint: “Life Cycle
                 according to sales                                        historic numbers             Assessment for an
               • Use sales and                                           • Applied US storage           Internet Data Centre”,
                 retirements to grow up                                    consumption per server       NEC.
                 to 2011                                                   worldwide
               • Straight line projection.                               • Doubled power
                                                                           consumption of servers
                                                                           to assess cooling and
                                                                           power equipment.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    The enabling effect assumptions
economy in the information age                         Appendix 3/66




Appendix 3: The enabling effect
assumptions
Assumptions behind the CO2e calculations for
the enabling effect are detailed below for the top
five areas.



Dematerialisation: Global impact
0.46 GtCO2e in 2020 – Assumptions behind the
numbers in Fig. 9, Chapter 3

 Lever                          GtCO2e               Assumptions

 Online media                   0.02                 • Assumes seven billion DVDs and 10 billion CDs
                                                       globally sold per year
                                                     • 1 Kg CO2e per CD/DVD*
                                                     • Eliminate all CDs and DVDs

 E-commerce                     0.03                 • 3% reduction in emissions from shopping
                                                       transport, assumed to be 40% of non-work-
                                                       related private transport, or 20% of all private
                                                       transport

 E-paper                        0.07                 • Assumes 270Mt of paper in 2020 globally
                                                     • tCO2e per tonne of paper
                                                     • Eliminate 25% of all paper

 Videoconferencing              0.08                 • 30% of passenger air and rail travel is business
                                                       travel
                                                     • Globally 30% of business travel can be avoided
                                                       through videoconferencing

 Telecommuting                  0.26                 • Assumes that work-related car travel in urban and
                                                       non-urban areas decreases by 80%, while
                                                       non-work-related car travel increases by 20%
                                                     • In developed countries 10% of existing vehicles
                                                       are affected, equivalent to 20% of people and
                                                       30-40% of working population, and 7% in
                                                       developing countries
                                                     • Assumes a 15% increase in residential building
                                                       emissions and a 60% reduction in office emissions,
                                                       applied to 10% of residential buildings and 80% of
                                                       office buildings
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The enabling effect assumptions
economy in the information age                          Appendix 3/67




 SMART motors: Global impact
 0.97 GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers
 in Fig 10.1, Chapter 3



 Lever                            GtCO2e              Assumptions

 Optimisation of variable         0.68                • 30% increase in efficiency of industrial motor
 speed motor systems                                    systems through optimisation
                                                      • 60% penetration of motor system optimisation
                                                        technology

 ICT driven automation in 0.29                        • 15% decrease in total electricity consumption
 key industrial processes                             • 33% penetration of process optimisation
                                                        technology



 SMART logistics: Global impact
 1.52 GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig. 11.1, Chapter 3

 Lever                            GtC02e              Assumptions

 Optimisation of logistics        0.340               • 14% reduction in road transport
 network                                              • 1% reduction in other modes of transport

 Intermodal shift                 0.020               •1% reduction in road transport owing to shift
                                                       towards rail and waterborne transport

 Reduction in inventory           0.180               •24% reduction in inventory levels
                                                      •100% of warehouses and 25% of retail are
                                                       assumed to be used for storage

 Centralised distribution         No data available
 centres

 Optimisation of truck            0.330               • 14% reduction in road transport
 itinerary planning

 Optimisation of truck            0.100               • 5% reduction in carbon intensity of road
 route planning                                         transport owing to avoidance of congestion

 Eco-driving                      0.250               •12% reduction in carbon intensity owing to
                                                       improved driving style

 Intelligent traffic              No data available
 management

 In-flight fuel efficiency,       0.002               •1% reduction in fuel consumption achievable for
 e.g. centre of gravity                                80% of t/km flown
                                                      •Impact calculated for average European fleet
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     The enabling effect assumptions
economy in the information age                          Appendix 3/68




 Lever                            GtC02e              Assumptions

 Reduction in ground              0.002               • 32% reduction in ground fuel consumption
 fuel consumption                                       achievable for 80% of flights
                                                      •Impact calculated for average European fleet

 Reduction in                     0.007               • 3% reduction in flight time achievable for 80%
 unnecessary flight time                                of flights

 Optimisation of train            0                   •2.5% reduction in rail transport owing to better
 operations                                            scheduling and operations of trains

 Maximisation of ship             0.030               • 4% reduction in marine transport owing to
 load factor                                            improved utilisation of ships

 Optimisation of ship             0.020               • 3% increase in fuel efficiency, e.g. by adjusting
 operations                                             ballasts and optimising speed

 Minimisation of                  0.220               • 5% reduction in packaging material, leading to a
 packaging                                              5% reduction in all transports and in storage

 Recycling and                    No data available
 remanufacturing

 Reduction of damaged             0.010               •0.2% reduction in damaged goods achievable
 goods                                                 through better tracking (e.g. RFID) and
                                                       conditions monitoring (e.g. bio-sensors)

 Flexible home delivery           0                   • 0.1% reduction in consumer travel to collect
 methods                                                failed deliveries
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon               The enabling effect assumptions
economy in the information age                    Appendix 3/69




 SMART buildings: Global impact
 1.68GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig 12.1, Chapter 3


 Lever                          GtCO2e       Assumptions

 Improved building              0.45        • 40% reduction in retail buildings and 30% in others
 design for energy                          • Implementation: 60% of all new builds and 15% of
 efficiency                                   retrofits (except 0% for residential)

 Reduced building               0.11        • 25% reduction in retail and warehouse space
 space through design                       • Implementation: 60% of new buildings and 20%
                                              of retrofits

 BMS                            0.39        • 12% less in residential and retail buildings, 7% in
                                              warehouse and 36% in office and other emissions
                                            • Implementation: 40% of new offices and retail and
                                              25% retrofits; 33% of all other new and 10% of
                                              retrofits

 HVAC automation                0.13        • 13% reduction in HVAC consumption (except
                                              warehouses)
                                            • Implementation: 40% for new retail and offices; 33%
                                              for remaining new; 25% for all retrofits

 Lighting automation            0.12        • 16% reduction in lighting
                                            • Implementation: 40% for new retail and offices; 33%
                                              for remaining new; 50% for commercial retrofits and
                                              25% for residential retrofits

 Ventilation on demand 0.02                 • 4% reduction in heating/cooling emissions in
                                              commercial buildings except warehouses
                                            • Implementation: 60% of new builds and 25%
                                              of retrofits

 Intelligent                    0.06        • 15% reduction in commercial building (except
 commissioning                                warehouses) heating/cooling emissions
                                            • Implementation: 60% of new builds

 Benchmarking and               0.15        • 35% reduction in current commercial building
 building                                     (except warehouses) heating/cooling emissions
 recommissioning                            • Implementation: 25% of new builds and 50%
                                              of retrofits

 Voltage optimisation           0.24        • 10% reduction in heating/cooling and appliance
                                              consumption
                                            • Implementation: 80% of new builds, 30% of
                                              commercial retrofits and 20% of residential retrofits
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   The enabling effect assumptions
economy in the information age                        Appendix 3/70




 SMART grids: Global impact
 2.03 GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig 13.1. Chapter 3


 Lever                          GtCO2e              Assumptions

 Reduce T&D losses              0.90                • 30% reduction (14% to 10%) of T&D losses for
                                                      developed countries and 38% (24% to 15%)
                                                      reduction for developing countries

 Demand management              0.02                • 3% (10 days a year) reduction in spinning reserve

 Reduce consumption             0.28                • 5% reduction in energy consumption
 through user                                       • Effective in 75% of residential new builds and
 information                                          50% of residential retrofits
                                                    • Effective in 60% of commercial new builds and
                                                      50% of commercial retrofits


 Integration of                 0.83                • 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of
 renewables                                           generation of developed countries
                                                    • 5% reduction in the carbon intensity of
                                                      generation of developing countries

 Intelligent load               No data available
 dispatch
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                   The enabling effect assumptions
                               economy in the information age                                        Appendix 3/71




                               Global value of the opportunity for smart motors,
                               smart logistics, smart buildings and smart grids
                               was developed using the detailed information
                               available for each case study and scaled according
                               to the assumptions outlined in each value tree:

                               SMART motors
                               Industrial automation could save up to
                               ¤68 billion pa worldwide ($107.2 billion)
                               Worldwide impact, 2020



                                   Key drivers of business model

                                                                                                              Motor system
                                                                                                              electricity used
                                                                                                              TWh 5,430                Impact of 2 levers*
                                                                               Motor system
                                                                                                                                       • Optimisation of
                                                                               electricity savings
                                                                                                                                         industrial motor
                                                                               TWh 1,200
                                               Motor system                                                                              systems (11% impact)
                                                                                                              Electricity savings
                                               electricity savings                                                                     • Automation of key
                                                                                                              22%
                                               ¤47.9 billion                                                                             industrial processes
                                                                               Cost of electricity                                       (5% impact)
                                                                               ¤/kWh 0.04
                                                                                                              Other electricity
                 Electricity savings
                                                                                                              used
                 ¤53.7 billion
                                                                                                              TWh 2,900
                                                                               Other electricity
                                                                               savings
                                                                               TWh 145
                                               Other electricity                                                                       Impact of 1 levers*
                                                                                                              Electricity savings
                                               savings                                                                                 • Automation of key
                                                                                                              5%
                                               ¤5.8 billion                                                                              industrial processes
                                                                               Cost of electricity
                                                                               ¤/kWh 0.04
Value at stake                                                                                                Motor system
¤68 billion                                                                                                   electricity savings
                                                                               Tons of carbon                 TWh 1,200
                                                                               avoided
                                                                               MtCO2 660
                                               Carbon savings for                                             Carbon intensity
                                               motor system                                                   of electricity
                                               electricity ¤13.2 billion                                      tC02/MWh 0.55
                                                                               Cost of carbon
                 Carbon savings                                                ¤/tonne 20
                 ¤14.7 billion                                                                                Other electricity
                                                                                                              savings
                                                                               Tonnes of carbon               TWh 2,900
                                                                               avoided
                                                                               80 MtCO2
                                               Carbon savings for                                             Carbon intensity
                                               other electricity                                              of primary fuel
                                               ¤1.6 billion                                                   tCO2/MWh 0.16
                                                                               Cost of carbon
                                                                               ¤/tonne 20




                               * Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                        The enabling effect assumptions
    economy in the information age                                             Appendix 3/72




    SMART logistics:
    Efficient logistics could save up to
    ¤280 billion pa worldwide ($441.6 billion)
    Worldwide impact, 2020


        Key drivers of business model
                                                                                                                                                 Impact of 16 levers,*
                                                                                               Fuel used in logistics                            of which the most
                                                                                               1,655 billion litres                              significant are:
                                                               Fuel savings                                                                      • Optimisation of
                                                               454 billion litres                                                                  logistics networks
                                                                                                                                                 • Optimisation of truck
                                 Transport savings                                             Fuel savings                                        collection and
                                 ¤227 billion                                                  27%                                                 delivery itinerary
                                                               Cost of fuel                                             Electricity usage        • Eco-driving
                                                               ¤/litre 0.5**                                            TWh 438
                                                                                               Electricity savings
                                                                                               TWh 321
                                                               Storage electricity
                                                                                                                        Electricity savings
                                                               savings
                                                                                                                        27%
                                                               ¤12.8 billion
                                                                                               Cost of electricity
                                                                                               ¤/kWh 0.04
                                                                                                                        Heating energy usage     Impact of 3 levers*
    Value at stake             Storage savings
                                                                                                                        TWh 375                  • Reduction of inventory
    ¤280 billion               ¤24 billion
                                                                                               Heating energy                                    • Minimisation of packaging
                                                                                               savings TWh 274                                   • Reduction of damaged goods
                                                               Storage heating
                                                                                                                        Heating energy
                                                               energy savings
                                                                                                                        savings 27%
                                                               ¤11.2 billion
                                                                                               Cost of heating
                                                                                               energy ¤/kWh 0.04
                                                                                                                        Fuel savings
                                                                                                                        454 billion litres
                                                                                               Tonnes of carbon
                                                                                               avoided 1.21 GtCO2
                                                               Carbon savings
                                                                                                                        Carbon intensity
                                                               for transport
                                                                                                                        KgCO2/2.68 litre
                                                               ¤24.3 billion
                                                                                               Cost of carbon                                  Electricity savings
                                                                                               ¤/20 tonne                                      TWh 321
                                                                                                                        Carbon saved from
                               Carbon savings
                                                                                                                        electricity savings
                               ¤29 billion                                                                                                     Carbon intensity
                                                                                                                        0.18 GtC02
                                                                                               Tonnes of carbon                                of electricity
                                                                                               avoided                                         tC02/MWh 0.55
                                                               Carbon savings                  0.22 GtCO2
                                                               for storage                                                                     Heating energy
                                                               ¤4.4 billion                                                                    savings TWh 274
                                                                                                                        Carbon saved from
                                                                                               Cost of carbon
                                                                                                                        heating energy
                                                                                               ¤/20 tonne
                                                                                                                        savings 0.04 GtC02     Carbon intensity
                                                                                                                                               of primary fuel
                                                                                                                                               tC02/TWh 0.16




* Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews
** Average spot trading price of gasoline excluding tax, IEA data, December 2007.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                   The enabling effect assumptions
                 economy in the information age                                        Appendix 3/73




                 SMART buildings:
                 The global value at stake from building efficiency
                 is estimated at ¤216 billion ($340.7 billion)
                 Worldwide impact, 2020


                    Key drivers of business model




                                                                                Electricity used
                                                                                TWh 12,000
                                                 Electricity savings
                                                 TWh 1,800
                                                                                Electricity savings
                  Electricity savings                                           15%
                  ¤72 billion
                                                 Cost of electricity
                                                 ¤/kWh 0.04                                                    Impact of multiple levers,* of
                                                                                                               which the most significant are
                                                                                Primary energy                 • Improved building design
                                                                                source used                      (4% impact)
                                                 Primary energy                 TWh 19,000                     •BMS (4% impact)
                                                 source saved                                                  •Benchmarking and building
                                                 TWh 2,850                      Primary energy
                  Primary energy                                                                                recommissioning (1.5% impact)
Value at stake                                                                  source savings
¤216 billion      source savings                                                15%
                  ¤115 billion
                                                 Cost of electricity
                                                                                                              Electricity savings
                                                 ¤/kWh 0.04
                                                                                                              TWh 1,800
                                                                                Tonnes of carbon
                                                                                avoided
                                                 Carbon savings                 990 MtCO2                     Carbon intensity of
                                                 for electricity                                              electricity
                                                 ¤20 billion                     Cost of carbon
                                                                                                              tCO2/MWh 0.55
                                                                                 ¤/20 tonne
                  Carbon savings
                  ¤29 billion
                                                                                                              Primary energy
                                                                                                              source savings
                                                                                Tonnes of carbon              TWh 2,850
                                                                                avoided
                                                 Carbon savings                                               Carbon intensity of
                                                                                MtCO2 445
                                                 for primary                                                  primary fuel
                                                 energy source                   Cost of carbon               tCO2/MWh 0.16
                                                 ¤9 billion                      ¤/20 tonne




                 * Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                  The enabling effect assumptions
economy in the information age                                       Appendix 3/74




SMART grids:
The global value at stake from smart grid
is estimated at ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion)
Global Impact, 2020


   Key drivers of business model




                                                                                           T&D losses
                                                                                           TWh 4,400**


                                                            Electricity savings
                                                            TWh 1,540


                              Electricity savings                                          Reduction in T&D
                              ¤61 billion                                                  losses
                                                                                           35%

                                                            Cost of electricity
                                                            ¤/kWh 0.04

Value at stake                                                                             Electricity savings
¤79 billion                                                                                TWh 1,540

                                                            Tonnes of carbon
                                                            avoided
                                                            900 MtCO2

                              Carbon savings                                               Carbon intensity
                              ¤18 billion                                                  of electricity
                                                                                           MtCO2/MWh 0.55

                                                            Cost of carbon
                                                            ¤/20 tonne




Estimate does not include benefits of smart grids beyond
reduction of T&D losses such as:
• DSM
• Integration of renewables
• Improved asset management




* Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews
** Based on 18% average losses worldwide and 25,000 TWh produced.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Company commitments
                 economy in the information age                         Appendix 4/75




                 Appendix 4: Company
                 commitments
Companies        Public commitments

Alcatel–Lucent   • Reach a 10% reduction in total CO2 emissions from facilities from the 2007 CSR reported baseline by
                   the end of 2010
                 • Determine and report Alcatel–Lucent’s direct carbon footprint by the end of 2008

Bell Canada      • Reduce intensity of GHG emissions by 15%, by 2012

British Tele-    • Reduce the worldwide CO2 emissions per unit of BT’s contribution to GDP by 80% from 1996 levels,
communications     by 2020
plc              • Reduce UK CO2 emissions in absolute terms by 80% below 1996 levels, by December 2016
                 • 20% of BTs employees will be actively engaged in reducing carbon footprint at work and at home
                   by December 2012
                 • 25% of BT’s UK electricity to be sourced from on-site wind power by 2016

Cisco Systems    • Complete verified, annual EPA Climate Leaders and CDP global GHG inventories
                 • As part of EPA Climate Leaders, develop a global, corporate GHG emissions goal to be implemented
                   over a five to 10 year horizon. Cisco’s goal will be posted under partner goals on the EPA Climate
                   Leaders Partnership website
                 •As part of Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) commitment, invest at least $20 million in remote
                  collaboration technology to reduce carbon emissions from air travel by 10% (2006 baseline)
                 • As part of CGI commitment, invest $15 million in the Connected Urban Development initiative
                   to create replicable templates for sustainable urban infrastructure development considering urban
                   planning, built environment, transport and energy solutions to reduce carbon emissions from cities

Dell             • Reduce operational carbon intensity by an additional 15% by 2012
                 • Starting with FY08, achieve net carbon neutrality for all Dell-owned and -leased manufacturing
                   and facilities operations worldwide, including business air travel
                 • Double our average facilities LEED score by 2012
                 • Strive for 100% use of renewable power in Dell operations
                 • Educate and empower customers to conserve energy and offset carbon related to operation
                   of IT products
                 • Set expectations for all primary suppliers to manage, reduce and publicly disclose GHG impacts

Deutsche         • 100% of German electricity demand obtained from renewable sources (water/wind/biomass)
Telekom AG         as from 2008
                 • Reduce CO2 emissions for Deutsche Telekom Group by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020
                 • Achieve the target of eight million private customers using online billing by the end of 2008
                   (started to promote the use of online billing in 2006)
                 • Conduct
                   – a complete review of Deutsche Telekom’s energy supply including exploring further potential
                     of all sources of renewable energies, including fuel cells and natural heat of the earth (geothermic)
                  – a complete audit of the energy consumption of Deutsche Telekom´s data centres
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                      Company commitments
economy in the information age                           Appendix 4/76




Companies              Public commitments

Deutsche               • Further investigate and assess
Telekom AG               – the use of high efficiency geothermal heat exchangers for cooling and heating
                        – the use of block-type thermal power stations
                        – the optimisation of data centres and switching stations through cooling water
                       • Investigate, assess and ensure the reduction of car fleet emissions by
                         – increasing the number of cars powered by alternative engines (i.e. hybrid etc.)
                        – using alternative fuels in the vehicle fleet

Ericsson               • Complete full peer-reviewed LCA study on mobile communications in accordance with ISO 14040
                         standards
                       • 20% energy efficiency improvement targeted from 2006 to end 2008 for WCDMA RBS
                       • 15% improvement in energy efficiency of GSM RBS products sold from beginning 2006 to end 2008
                       • Introduce power-saving standby feature for GSM RBS during low load
                       • Have intermediate, publishable results from two or three ongoing projects for LCA, video
                         communications and mobile applications

France Telecom         • Reduce CO² emissions for FT Group by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020
                       • Involve 100% of FT Group employees in reducing the company’s footprint
                       • Reduce energy consumption for FT Group by 15% below 2006 level to 2020
                       • 25% of FT Group electricity in Africa (EMEA) to be sourced from solar by 2015

Hewlett-Packard • Reduce energy consumption and the resulting GHG emissions from HP-owned and leased facilities
                  worldwide 16% below 2005 levels, by 2010
                • Reduce the combined energy consumption and associated GHG emissions of HP operations and
                  products to 25% below 2005 levels, by 2010
                • Reduce the energy consumption of volume desktop and notebook PC families by 25% by 2010
                  relative to 2005
                • Improve the overall energy efficiency of HP ink and laser printing products by 40% by 2011
                • Quadruple the number of high-end video conferencing units at company sites worldwide by 2009,
                  resulting in an expected reduction of more than 20,000 trips
                • Report energy use and associated GHG emissions in HP’s first-tier suppliers, representing more than
                  70% of the company’s materials, components and manufacturing supplier spend

Intel                  • Reduce absolute carbon footprint by 20% by 2012 against the 2007 baseline
                       • Reduce use of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) by 10% by 2010 against the 1995 baseline
                       • Reduce normalised energy use in operations by 4% pa by 2010 against 2002 baseline, increasing to 5%
                         pa by 2012 against the 2007 baseline
                       • Reduce IT-related CO2 emissions by 50% by 2010 by ensuring commitments to produce, sell, buy and
                         use the most energy efficient IT equipment, via the Climate Savers Computing Initiative
                       • Starting in 2008, purchase 1.3 billion kWh a year of renewable energy certificates

Microsoft              • All new owned buildings will be constructed to LEED Silver or Gold performance levels
                       • Increase multiple occupancy and alternative transport rate for Puget Sound, Washington employees
                         from 32% to 40% by 2015
                       • 100% of data centres will feature real time tracking of CO2 emissions
                       • Every two years through 2012, halve the measure between annual average data centre PUE and the
                         ideal PUE (1.0) by increasing Microsoft data centre productivity
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                   Company commitments
                economy in the information age                        Appendix 4/77




Companies       Public commitments

Motorola        • Reduce operational CO2 emissions (includes direct GHG emissions and indirect emissions from
                  electricity use) by 15% compared with 2005
                • In keeping with the company’s commitment as a founding member of the Chicago Climate Exchange
                  (CCX), reduce global absolute CO2 emissions by 6% by 2010 compared with 2000
                • Assess supply chain climate impacts
                • Measure the impact of business travel
                • Understand the carbon footprint through the life cycle of Motorola products
                •Continuously improve the energy efficiency of Motorola products

Nokia           • Products:
                  – Reduce the average no-load power consumption by another 50% by the end of 2010
                 – Roll out reminders for consumers to unplug the charger from the electricity outlet once the phone has
                   been fully charged across its product range by the end of 2008
                • Offices and sites:
                  – Further energy savings 2007-2012 of 6% compared to 2006 levels
                • Green energy:
                  – Increase the use of green electricity to 50% in 2010
                • Operations:
                  – Set energy efficiency and CO2 reduction targets for global suppliers of printed wiring boards,
                    integrated circuits, LCD’s and chargers that are in line with Nokia internal target setting
                • Require target setting for the reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from its logistics
                  service providers

Nokia Siemens   Products energy consumption targets:
Networks        • Reduce the energy consumption of typical GSM (2G) RBS by 20% by 2010 from the 2007 level
                  of 800W
                • Reduce the energy consumption of typical WCDMA (3G) RBS by 40% by 2010 from end-2007
                  level of 500W
                • Reduce the energy consumption by 29% per ADSL line by 2009 from the 2007 level to meet the
                  Broadband Code of Conduct. With ADSL low power mode, additional 30% savings are possible
                • Reduce the energy consumption by 49% per VDSL line by 2009 from the 2007 level and target
                  to meet the Broadband Code of Conduct
                • Continue deployment and further development of energy-saving features during low traffic periods

Nokia Siemens   Production and office facilities energy use targets:
Networks        • Reduce energy use by 6% by 2012, exceeding the official EU target of 5%
                • Use 25% renewable energy in company operations by 2009, increasing up to 50% by the end of
                  2010

Sun             • Reduce US CO2e emissions 20% from 2002 levels by 2012
Microsystems    • Maintain over 50% of employees in a flexible work programme, which includes partial and full time
                  work from home
                • Publish energy consumption data for all products
                • Drive increased energy efficiency in microprocessors, systems and storage through Sun’s Eco
                  Innovation programme
                • Provide tools for data centre customers to monitor ongoing power consumption of Sun products
                • Exceed industry targets for energy efficiency of power supplies used in Sun products.
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                      Company commitments
economy in the information age                           Appendix 4/78




Companies              Public commitments

 Telecom Italia         • 30% increase (with respect to 2007) of the eco-efficiency indicator for 2008: the objective for 2008
                          is 1,130 Bit/Joule (the value for 2007 is 873 B/J)
                        • In 2008, 3 million kWh reduction through use of low-consumption lighting systems
                        • In 2008, 200 tonnes CO2 reduction by substituting new methane generators for oil boilers
                        • In 2008, 2,700 tonnes CO2 reduction by replacing Euro3 vehicles with Euro4 vehicles

 Telefónica S.A.        • Collect and standardise carbon emission data in all of Telefónica’s operating markets and companies
                        • Identify risks associated with future emission limits as well as the opportunities to cut them and
                          improve the company’s environmental record
                        • Draw up an energy efficiency plan
                        • Calculate to what extent the products and services marketed by Telefónica reduce carbon emissions
                        • Raise awareness of the need to fight climate change among social and economic agents
                        • Establish a company-wide culture of awareness around climate change and energy savings

 Verizon                • Verizon is committed to enhancing its green profile. Current initiatives have improved the
                          company’s carbon intensity 2006-2007 by 1%. The company is expanding its efforts by a wide
                          range of green initiatives, some of which will incorporate customer participation and/or adoption.
                          These will be monitored by a council of senior executives. They include:
                          – Promotion of paperless billing
                         – Investigation and/or expansion of alternate energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal
                         – Broadband alternatives to travel
                         – Hybrid vehicles
                         – Supporting HopeLine cell phone recycling programme
                         – Benchmarking best practices of leaders in energy conservation and alternate power sources

 Vodafone plc           • Reduce absolute CO2 emissions by 50% against the 2006/07 footprint baseline, by 2020
                        • Develop a separate climate change strategy for India and set a target by March 2009
                        • Research and reduce the environmental impact of Vodafone’s products and services
                        • Design and deploy products and services that will help Vodafone’s customers mitigate
                          climate change
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                    Experts consulted and/or interviewed
economy in the information age                         Appendix 5/79




Appendix 5:Experts consulted
and/or interviewed for the
analysis and reporting


Name                                  Role                                 Organisation

General experts/policy

Skip Laitner                          Economic Analysis Director      American Council for an Energy
                                                                      Efficient Economy
James Lovegrove                       Managing Director               American Electronics Association
                                                                      Europe
Paul Dickinson                        Chief Executive                 CDP
Barry Fogarty                         Consultant                      CDP
Joseph Romm                           Senior Fellow                   Center for American Progress
Michel Catinat                        Head of Unit B4                 DG Enterprise
John Doyle                            Monitoring and Evaluation Unit DG Info Society
Peter Johnston                        Head, Monitoring and Evaluation DG Info Society
                                      Unit
Matthew Baldwin                       Energy Advisor                  EU Commission President Barroso
Pierre Schellekens                    Deputy Head of Cabinet          EU Commissioner for
                                                                      Environment Dimas
Jim Stack                             Analyst                         Freeman and Sullivan
Chris Bone                            Head of Enterprise              Fujitsu Siemens Computers
Simon Mingay                          Analyst                         Gartner
Chris Large                           Business Programme Manager      Global Action Plan
Faisal Qayium                         Project Manager, ICT            Global Action Plan
Lawrence Harrison                     Delivery Director               Intellect
Emma Fryer                            Energy Director                 Intellect
Jon Koomey                            Staff Scientist                 LBNL
Rebecca Henderson                     Professor of Management         Sloan School of Management,
                                                                      Massachusetts Institute of
                                                                      Technology (MIT)
Rodrigo Prudencio                     Investor                        Nth Power
Bruno Giussani                        European Director               TED Conferences
Nigel Zaldua-Taylor                   Head of ICT                     Transport for London
Andrew Fanara                         Director of Energy Star         US Environmental Protection
                                                                      Agency
James Tee                             Project Manager, ICT            World Economic Forum
Tim Herzog                            Director of Online              World Resources Institute
                                      Communications
Dennis Pamlin                         Policy Director                 WWF
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     Experts consulted and/or interviewed
economy in the information age                          Appendix 5/80




Name                                  Role                                 Organisation

SMART motors, China

Fan, Yaode                            Senior Engineer                      Bao Steel
Zhang, Hui                            Engineer                             Bao Steel
Jia, Ke                               Information Officer                  Beijing Office, National Electrical
                                                                           Manufacturers Association
                                                                           (NEMA)
Li, Yuqi                              Chief Technical Advisor              CHUEE
Alex Wyatt                            Director                             Climate Bridge
Xu, Shuigen                           Marketing and Business               Honeywell Process Solution
                                      Development Director, China
Valerie Karplus                       Postgraduate Student          MIT
Qin, Hongbo                           Motor Department              Shanghai Energy Conservation
                                                                    Service Centre
Wang, Guoxing                         Motor Department              Shanghai Energy Conservation
                                                                    Service Centre
Song, Yu                              Manufacturing Planning ManagerShanghai Volkswagen
Five members of Marketing             Marketing                     Shanghai Volkswagen
Department
Yu, Haibin                            Marketing Director                   Supcon
Li, Yongdong                          Professor                            Tsinghua University
Zhao, Rongxiang                       Professor                            Zhejiang University

SMART logistics, EU


Darren Briggs                         Logistics Consultant             Arup
Ewan French                           COO                              Barloworld Optimus
Nelly Andrieu                         Masters Student                  Carbon-Efficient Supply Chains,
                                                                       MIT
Lee Weiss                                                              Carbon-Efficient Supply Chains,
                                                                       MIT
Edgar Blanco                          Executive Director               Centre for Transportation and
                                                                       Logistics, MIT
Adrian Dickinson                      Innovation Director, The Neutral DHL
                                      Group
Grace Lowe                            Head of Environmental            Fujitsu
                                      Management System Initiative
Darran Watkins                        Senior Supply Chain Analyst      IGD
James Walton                          Chief Economist                  IGD
Don Carli                             Director                         Institute of Sustainable
                                                                       Communication
Professor Mohammed Naim               Professor                        Logistics and Operations
                                                                       Management, Cardiff Business
                                                                       School
Alan McKinnon                         Director, Professor of Logistics Logistics Research Centre,
                                                                       Herriot-Watt University
Harold Krikke                         Professor                        Tilburg University

John Hix                              Programme Manager, Freight           UK Department for Transport
                                      Best Practice Group
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                      Experts consulted and/or interviewed
economy in the information age                           Appendix 5/81




Name                                  Role                                   Organisation

SMART buildings, North America

Gareth Ashley                         Associate                              Arup
Amit Khanna                           Consultant – Mechanical/               Arup
                                      Sustainability
Al Lyons                              Information Technology and             Arup
                                      Telecommunications Team Lead
Susan Kaplan                          Director, Sustainable                  Battery Park City Authority –
                                      Development                            Tour of Solitaire
Mike Scheible                         Deputy Director                        California Air Resources Board
                                                                             (CARB)
Chuck Schlock                         Programme Manager                      CARB
Bill Welty                            CIO                                    CARB
Leena Pishe Thomas                    City Director, Delhi                   Clinton Climate Initiative
Donald Winston                        Director Technical Services            Durst
Stuart Brodsky                        (Former) National Program              Energy Star
                                      Manager, Commercial Properties
Stephen Thomas                        Manager, Global Energy and     Johnson Controls
                                      Sustainability Communications
Bruce Nordman                         Staff Scientist                LBNL
Stephen Selkowitz                     Programme Head, Building       LBNL
                                      Technologies Department
Nidia Blake-Reeder
Leon Glicksman                        Head, Building Technology              MIT
                                      Programme, Department of
                                      Architecture
Bill Mitchell                         Director                               MIT Design Laboratory
Les Norford                           Professor                              MIT
Bernhard Berner                       Chief Engineer                         National Resource Management
                                                                             Inc.
Michael Brambley                      Staff Scientist                        Pacific Northwest Labs and
                                                                             ASHRAE
Carlo Ratti                           Director                               SENSEable City Laboratory
Jerry Dion                            Head of Smart Building                 US Department of Energy
                                      Technology Programme
Michelle Moore                        Senior Vice President                  USGBC

SMART grids, India

Balawant Joshi                        Managing Partner                 ABPS Infra
Bharat Lal Mena                       Director General                 Bangalore Electricity Supply
                                                                       Company (BESCOM) and
                                                                       Karnataka Power Transmission
                                                                       Corporation Limited (KPTCL)
Ted Geilen                            Senior Utilities Engineer,       California Public Utilities
                                      Electricity Pricing and Programs Commission (CPUC)

Dr. Hari Sharan                       Director                               DESI Power
Lee Cooper                            Team Leader and Consultant to          Emerging Technologies, PG&E
                                      Customer Energy Efficiency
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                     Experts consulted and/or interviewed
economy in the information age                          Appendix 5/82




Name                                  Role                                 Organisation

Hal La Flash                          Director of Emerging Clean           Emerging Technologies, PG&E
                                      Technology Policy
Steve Pullins                         President (HE) and Leader of         Horizon Energy – MGI
                                      Modern Grid Initiative (MGI)
Alex Zheng                            Author and Consultant                Horizon Energy – MGI
Ashok Emani                           Management and Social                Infrastructure Development
                                      Development Group, Senior            Finance Company
                                      Specialist – Environment
Sanjay Grewal                         Executive Vice President          Infrastructure Development
                                                                        Finance Company
Veena Vadini                          Senior Specialist – Environment Infrastructure Development
                                                                        Finance Company
Ajay Mathur                           Director General                  Indian Bureau of Energy
                                                                        Efficiency
Jayant Kawale                         Joint Secretary                   Indian Ministry of Power
Giresh B Pradhan                      Additional Secretary              Indian Ministry of Power
Vivek Kumar                           Head of Utilities                 Infosys
Dipayan Mitra                         Climate Change Solutions          Infosys
Mitul Thapliyal                       Associate                         Infosys
Sanjay Kumar Banga                    HOG (Automation and Network NDPL
                                      Analysis)
Mithun Chakraborty                    Business Development and          NDPL
                                      Knowledge Management
Praveen Chorghade                     Head (Operations)                 NDPL
BN Prasanna                                                             NDPL
Robert Pratt                          GridWise Programme Manager Pacific Northwest National
                                                                        Laboratory
Shantanu Dixit                        Director                          Prayas Energy Group
Eric Dresselhuys                      CEO                               SilverSpring Networks
John O'Farrell                        Executive Vice President Business SilverSpring Networks
                                      Development
Raj Vaswani                           CTO                               SilverSpring Networks
Gaurav Chakraverty                    Associate Fellow                  Teri
Sangeeta Gupta                        Director                          Teri
K Ramanathan                          Distinguished Fellow              Teri
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                           Glossary
economy in the information age                                                Appendix 6/83




Appendix 6: Glossary



AB 32 – Assembly Bill 32: Legislation that puts a cap on California’s         CO2e: Carbon dioxide equivalent.
GHG emissions and creates a path for a market-based system and other          Computer number control (CNC): Programme to provide individual
mechanisms to bring the state’s emissions back down to 1990 levels            robots with instructions to perform manufacturing tasks.
by 2020.                                                                      Control system: Facilitates automated control of a manufacturing
ADSL: Asymmetric digital subscriber line.                                     plant. Often based on DCS architecture.
AMI: Advanced metering infrastructure.                                        Cost curve: GHG abatement cost curve developed in 2007 by
AMR: Automatic meter reading.                                                 McKinsey, which estimated the significance (in terms of emissions
AMS: Advanced metering system (also known as advanced metering).              reductions) and cost of each possible method of reducing emissions
APDRP v2 – Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme                 globally, and by region and by sector.
v2: Programme introduced in 2008 to accelerate power distribution             CPFR: Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment.
sector reforms in India.                                                      Cradle-to-grave approach: Analysis that incorporates all stages of |
API: Adaptive processor intensity.                                            a process from first to last (e.g. product development and manufacture
AT&C losses – Aggregated technical and commercial losses: As well as          to disposal).
accounting for losses of electricity T&D across the grid (technical           CRT – cathode ray tube: Used in computer or television monitors, but
losses), this term incorporates additional losses from theft of electricity   increasingly being replaced by LCD or plasma screen technology.
from the grid (commercial losses).                                            Data centre: Facility used to house computer systems and associated
AWBCS: Automated whole building control systems.                              components.
AWBDS: Automated whole building diagnostic systems.                           DCS architecture – Distributed control system architecture: System
BACnet: Data communication protocol for building automation and               through which intelligence is distributed across components of the
control networks, developed by ASHRAE.                                        system and requires network connectivity for communication and
Bandwidth: Rate of data transfer, measured in bits per second.                monitoring.
Base station (also known as radio base station or RBS):                       Decentralised energy: Electricity production at or near the point of
(a) Telecoms: wireless communications station installed at a fixed location   use, irrespective of size, technology or fuel used, both off-grid and
and used to communicate as part of either a push-to-talk two-way radio        on-grid.
system or a wireless telephone system. (b) Computing: Radio receiver/         Demand response: Reduction of customer energy usage at times of
transmitter serving as the hub of the local wireless network; may also be     peak usage in order to help improve system reliability, reflect market
the gateway between wired and wireless networks.                              conditions and pricing and support infrastructure optimisation or
BAU: Business as usual.                                                       deferral.
BMS - Building management system: Used in smart buildings to                  Dematerialisation: The substitution of high carbon activities or
automatically control and adjust heating, cooling, lighting and               products with low carbon alternatives.
energy use.                                                                   DGNB: Deutsches Gesellschaft für nachhaltiges Bauen e.V.
BREEAM: Building Research Establishment Environmental                         Direct footprint: In this report refers to the CO2e impact of the
Assessment Method.                                                            ICT sector.
Broadband: Wide band of frequencies used to transmit                          Direct load control: System or programme that allows utilities,
telecommunications information.                                               other load serving entities or demand response service providers to
Broad operating temperature envelope and fresh air cooling:                   control user load.
Combined use of computing components with operating temperature               Direct methanol fuel cell: Electrochemical alternative energy device
range of 5-40°C with low power cooling by fresh air.                          that converts high-energy density fuel (liquid methanol) directly
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate.                                            to electricity.
Captive power generation (also known as captive generation):                  Distributed generation: Generation of electricity from small
Power generation from a unit set up by industry/households for                energy sources.
exclusive consumption as a means to ensure a constant power supply.           DSM: Demand side management.
Carbon footprint: Impact of human activities on the environment               Dynamic demand: Semi-passive technology for adjusting load
measured in terms GHG produced, measured in CO2e.                             demands on an electrical power grid.
Carbon intensity: Quantity of CO2e emitted per unit of energy                 Dynamic smart cooling: Dynamic detection and target cooling of
produced by the burning of a fuel.                                            areas of high temperature within data centres.
CASBEE: Comprehensive Assessment System for Building                          E-commerce (also known as electronic commerce): Buying
Environmental Efficiency.                                                     and selling of products and services over the internet and other
CDM: Clean development mechanism.                                             computer networks.
CDMA: Code division multiple access.                                          EDGE: Enhanced data rates for GSM revolution.
CDP: Carbon Disclosure Project.                                               EFX: Electronic freight exchanges.
Cholesteric LCD screen (see also LCD screen): Cholesteric liquid              EICC: Electronic Industry Code of Conduct.
crystal displays are brighter and higher contrast than conventional LCDs      EiT: Economies in transition.
in ambient lighting.                                                          Embodied carbon: Total CO2e required to get a product to its position
CHP: Combined heat and power.                                                 and state. Includes product manufacture, transport and disposal.
CHUEE: China Utility-based Energy Efficiency Finance Program.                 EMCS – Energy management control system: Electronic devices with
Cloud computing: System of computing in which the computing                   microprocessors and communication capabilities that utilise powerful,
resources being accessed are typically owned and operated by                  low-cost microprocessors and standard cabling communication
third-party providers on a consolidated basis in data centre locations.       protocols.
CMIE: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.                          EMEA: Europe, Middle East and Africa.
CO2: Carbon dioxide.                                                          Emerging markets: Business and market activity in industrialising or
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                            Glossary
economy in the information age                                                 Appendix 6/84




emerging regions of the world.                                                 LCD – Liquid crystal displays (see also Cholesteric LCD screen):
Emissions factor: Carbon footprint of any energy source, expressed             Screen composed of LCDs, one per pixel, which darken or change colour
for example as kgCO2/kWh. This report used emissions factors based on          when activated.
McKinsey and Vattenfall cost curve.                                            Leapfrogging: Theory of development in which developing countries
Enabling effect: Term coined in this report to describe the ability of         may accelerate development by skipping inferior, inefficient, expensive
ICT solutions to facilitate emissions reductions by means of: improved         or polluting technologies and industries, moving directly to more
visibility; management and optimisation of processes; and behavioural          advanced ones.
change as a result of better information provision.                            LED: Light-emitting diode.
Energy Conservation Act: Legal framework introduced in India in                LEED – Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design: Green
2001 to promote economy-wide energy efficiency. Led to the formation           building rating system established by the US Green Business Council.
of the Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency.                                     Lever: In this report refers to a device, application or mechanism whose
Energy intensity: Ratio of energy use to economic or physical output.          use or implementation brings about a reduction in GHG emissions.
EPEAT: Electronic Product Environmental Assessment Tool.                       Load control: Practices undertaken by electrical utilities to ensure that
ESCO: Energy services company.                                                 electrical load is less than what can be generated.
EuP: Energy-using products.                                                    Load dispatch: Refers to the scheduling of power generation.
EuP Directive: The EU Directive 2005/32/EC on the eco-design of                Load management: Refers to interruptible rates, curtailment
Energy-using Products (EuP).                                                   programmes and direct load control programmes.
GDP: Gross domestic product.                                                   Mainframes: Computers used mainly by large organisations for critical
GHG: Greenhouse gas.                                                           applications, typically bulk data processing such as census, industry
GIS – Geographic[al] information system (also known as geospatial              and consumer statistics and financial transaction processing.
information system): System for capturing, storing, analysing,                 Mbit: Megabit.
managing and presenting data and associated attributes that are                MCX – Multi-commodity exchange: Indian multi-commodity
spatially referenced to Earth.                                                 exchange with recognition from the Indian government for facilitating
Gj - Gigajoule: One billion joules.                                            online trading, clearing and settlement operations for the national
GPS – Global positioning system: The only fully functional global              commodities futures market.
navigation satellite system. Utilising a satellite constellation of at least   Mesh network: Means of routing data, voice and instructions between
24 medium earth orbit satellites that transmit precise microwave               nodes.
signals, the system enables a GPS receiver to determine its location,          MNC: Multinational corporation.
speed, direction and time.                                                     Mobile switching centre: System that connects calls by switching
Green Building Finance Consortium: Group of corporations, real                 the digital voice packets from one network path to another (also known
estate companies and trade groups addressing the need for independent          as routing).
research and analysis of investment in energy efficient buildings.             Motor controllers: Devices that regulate motor speeds based on
Green Grid: International not-for-profit organisation whose mandate            required output. Use information received from other system parts to
is to increase energy efficiency in the IT sector.                             adjust motor speed.
GSM: Global system for mobile communications.                                  MRO: Maintenance, repair and operating.
Gt – Gigatonne: One billion tonnes.                                            Mt: Megatonne (1 million tonnes).
HVAC: Heating, ventilation and air conditioning.                               Multicore processor: Processor that has multiple processing cores that
ICT – Information and communications technology: Combination of                can perform several tasks in parallel with each other instead of in
devices and services that capture, transmit and display data and               sequence.
information electronically.                                                    National Electricity Act: Legislation passed by the Indian government
ICT company: GeSI constitution definition – “Any company or                    in 2003 to speed up the development of efficiency within the electricity
organisation which, as a principal part of its business, provides a service    sector.
for the point-to-point transmission of voice, data or moving images            NDPL: North Delhi Power Ltd.
over a fixed, internet, mobile or personal communication network, or is        Network optimisation package: Software, network design and
a supplier of equipment which is an integral component of the                  planning-based solution.
communication network infrastructure, or procedures equipment or               Network sharing: System that allows a device or piece of information
software associated with the electronic storage processing or                  on a computer to be remotely accessed from another computer,
transmission of data.”                                                         typically via a local area network or an enterprise intranet.
IEA: International Energy Agency.                                              NGA: Next generation access.
Indirect impact: Also referred to in this report as the enabling effect,       NGN: Next generation network.
the impact of ICT in reducing the GHG emissions attributed to other            NGO: Non-governmental organisation.
sectors such as transport, industry or power.                                  OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
IMC – Intelligent motor controller: Monitors the load condition of             OMS: Output management system.
motors and adjusts voltage input accordingly.                                  Optical computing: Uses light instead of electricity to manipulate,
IP or internet protocol: Data-oriented protocol used for                       store and transmit data.
communicating data across a packet-switched internetwork.                      pa: per annum.
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Scientific                   PC: Personal computer.
intergovernmental body set up to assess the scientific, technical and          Peak load or peak generation: Maximum power requirement of a
socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific            system at a given time, or the amount of power required to supply
basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts           customers at times when need is greatest.
and options for adaptation and mitigation.                                     Peripherals: Include monitors and printers associated with PCs.
IPTV: System where a digital television service is delivered using             Phantom power: Undesired electricity discharged by appliances and
internet protocol over a network infrastructure, which may include             battery chargers when not in use.
delivery by a broadband connection.                                            PLT – Power line telecom: System for using electric power lines to
IPTV box: Internet protocol set-top box.                                       carry information over the power line.
ISO 14040: International 2006 standard, which describes the principles         Power management: Systems that monitor and control activity levels
and framework for LCA.                                                         of individual PC hardware components such as processors, batteries, AC
IT: Information technology.                                                    adapters, fans, monitors and hard disk.
ITU: International Telecommunications Union                                    ppm: parts per million.
kWh: Kilowatt hour.                                                            PUE: Power usage effectiveness.
Kyoto Protocol: Legally binding agreement of the UNFCCC in which               Quantum computing: Quantum computers are hypothetical devices
industrialised country signatories will reduce their collective GHG            that make direct use of distinctively quantum mechanical phenomena
emissions by 5.2% on 1990 levels. Negotiated in December 1997 in               to perform operations on data. The basic principle of quantum
Kyoto, Japan, and came into force in February 2005.                            computation is that the quantum properties can be used to represent
LBNL: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.                                   and structure data, and that quantum mechanisms can be devised and
LCA: Life-cycle analysis (also known as life-cycle assessment).                built to perform operations with this data.
                                                                               Radio base station (see Base station).
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon                                           Glossary
economy in the information age                                                Appendix 6/85




Rebound effect: Increases in demand caused by the introduction of             the Earth Summit in Rio de Janiero. Its ultimate objective is the
more energy efficient technologies. This increase in demand reduces the       “stabilisation of GHG concentration in the atmosphere at a level that
energy conservation effect of the improved technology on total                would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
resource use.                                                                 system.” Came into force March 1994 and is ratified by 192 countries.
Replacement rate: Rate at which a particular device or application is         USGBC: US Green Building Council.
replaced by another.                                                          Utility computing (also known as on-demand computing):
Results-only work environment (also known as ROWE):                           The packaging of computational resource, such as computation and
Staff management principle in which employees are free to work                storage, as a metered service similar to a physical public utility such as
wherever and whenever they want, as long as work is completed.                electricity and water.
RFID – Radio-frequency identification: Automatic identification               Value tree analysis: The method used for this report to calculate the
and data capture method, relying on storing and remotely retrieving           value at stake in each case study from the associated savings in
data using devices called RFID tags.                                          electricity, fuel combustion and carbon emissions.
Router: Computer whose software and hardware are tailored to route            VDSL – Very high-speed digital subscriber line: DSL technology
and forward information.                                                      providing faster data transmission over a single twisted pair of copper
RoW: Rest of world. Sarbanes–Oxley accounting data legislation (see           wires.
Sarbanes–Oxley Act) Sarbanes–Oxley Act (also known as the Public              Videoconferencing: The audio and video transmission of meeting
Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act): 2002 US               activities.
federal law that establishes or enhances standards for all US public          Virtualisation: Software allows computation users to reduce hardware
company boards, management and public accounting firms.                       assets, or use them more efficiently, by running multiple virtual
SCADA - Supervisory control and data acquisition: Software                    machines side by side on the same hardware, emulating different
package designed to perform data collection and control at the                components of their IT systems.
supervisory level.                                                            VMR: Vendor-managed repair.
Server: Application or device that performs services for connected            Volume server: Fastest-growing category of server (includes blade
clients as part of a client-server architecture.                              servers) and is defined by IDC as servers that cost under $25,000
Sinaut spectrum: Provides a control centre which gives an up-to-date          (¤39,439).
summary on the distribution network at all times.                             VSD - Variable speed drive: Controls the frequency of electrical
Smart building: Group of embodied ICT systems that maximise energy            power supplied to a motor.
efficiency in buildings.                                                      W: Watt.
Smart charger: Device (primarily mobile phone) battery charger that           WCDMA - Wideband code division multiple access: Type of third
turns off when the device is fully charged or if plugged in without           generation cellular network.
device attached.                                                              Workstation: High-end microcomputer designed for technical or
Smart grid: Integration of ICT applications throughout the grid, from         scientific applications.
generator to user, to enable efficiency and optimisation solutions.           XML: Extensible Markup Language
Smart logistics: Variety of ICT applications that enable reductions in
fuel and energy use by enabling better journey and load planning.
Smart meters: Advanced meters that identify consumption in more
detail than conventional meters and communicate via a network back
to the utility for monitoring and billing purposes.
Smart motors: ICT technologies that reduce energy consumption at
the level of the motor, the factory or across the business.
SME: Small or medium enterprise.
SMS – Short message service: Communications protocol allowing the
interchange of short text messages between mobile telephone devices.
SOAP: Simple object access protocol.
Solid state hard drives (also known as solid state drives): Data
storage device that uses solid state memory to store persistent data and
emulates a hard drive, thus easily replacing it in any application.
SPV – solar photovoltaics: Technology that uses energy from the sun
to create electricity. Consists of layers of semiconducting material,
usually silicon. Light shining on the cell creates an electric field across
the layers, causing electricity to flow..
Substitution: In this study, taken to mean the replacement of one
behavioural pattern by another.
T&D: Transmission and distribution.
TCP/IP – Internet protocol suite: Set of communications protocols
that implement the protocol stack on which the internet and most
commercial networks run.
Technology platform: Describes a bundle of related software
programmes and hardware that deliver intelligent capabilities.
Technology transfer: The exchange of knowledge, hardware,
software, money and goods among stakeholders that leads to the
spreading of technology for adaptation or mitigation.
Telecommuting: Replacing commuting by rail, car or other transport
with working from home.
Telecoms (also known as telecommunications): Systems used
in transmitting messages over a distance electronically.
Telecoms network: Network of links and nodes arranged so that
messages may be passed from one part of the network to another over
multiple links and through various nodes.
Teleconferencing: Service that allows multiple participants in one
phone call, replacing or complementing face-to-face meetings.
Teleworking: Working remotely via the use of ICT solutions. Includes
telecommuting and tele- and videoconferencing.
Transformers: Devices that transfer electrical energy from one
electrical network to another through inductively coupled electrical
conductors.
TWh: TeraWatt hour.
UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change: Adopted in May 1992, signed by more than 150 countries at
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon
economy in the information age
SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon
               economy in the information age




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Smart2020 English

  • 1. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age.
  • 2. A report by The Climate Group on behalf of the Global eSustainability Initiative (GeSI) ©Creative Commons 2008 Attribution Noncommercial-No Derivative Works Prior to distributing, copying or reporting this work contact The Climate Group (info@theclimategroup.org) or GeSI (info@gesi.org). Supporting Organisations GeSI and member companies: Bell Canada, British Telecommunications plc, Cisco Systems, Deutsche Telekom AG, Ericsson, France Telecom, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Microsoft, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks, Sun Microsystems, T-Mobile, Telefónica S.A., Telenor, Verizon, Vodafone plc. Additional support: Dell, LG. Steering Committee Deutsche Telekom AG Luis Neves, Chair of GeSI The Climate Group Emily Farnworth Chair of Steering Committee British Telecommunications plc Chris Tuppen Cisco Systems Juan Carlos Castilla-Rubio Intel Robert Wright LG Alexander Grossmann Nokia Siemens Networks Juha-Erkki Mantyniemi T-Mobile Allison Murray Vodafone plc Joaquim Croca Project Director Molly Webb, The Climate Group Independent Analysis McKinsey & Company Acknowledgements The report was developed independently on behalf of GeSI. Particular thanks to the members of the Steering group and the editorial team, who helped develop and sustain the project. The analysis contained in this report would not have been possible without analysis from McKinsey, Jason Adcock and Anna da Costa, co-editing by Chris Tuppen and Juan Carlos Castilla- Rubio and editorial support from Flemmich Webb and Karen Anderton. Special thanks to the participation of individuals in the sponsoring companies (listed above) who were involved throughout the analysis. We are grateful to the experts we consulted for general guidance and to develop our regional case studies (Appendix 5) and also to the many others not listed who have supported along the way.
  • 3. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Support for the Report economy in the information age 3 Support for the Report This rigorous assessment underlines that the This report gives a clear picture of the key role world can realise a green economy and make that the ICT industry plays in addressing climate the transition to a low carbon economy. It also change globally and facilitating efficient and low underlines the crucial importance of the carbon development. The role of ICT not only international community reaching a deal on a includes emission reduction and energy savings new climate agreement at the climate convention in the ICT sector itself, but also benefits from the meeting in Copenhagen in 2009. This partnership adoption of ICT technologies to influence and between GeSI (convened under UNEP) and The transform the way our society works and the way Climate Group, with analytical support from people behave. By using our huge network and McKinsey, gives us yet another platform for over 400 million customers, China Mobile is doing action and yet another compelling reason for its best to promote this transformation and to reasoned optimism Achim Steiner, UN Under- realise real sustainable development for human Secretary General and Executive Director, UN beings and the environment. Wang Jianzhou, Environment Programme (UNEP) Chief Executive, China Mobile Communications Corporation Nowhere is ICT’s vast potential more apparent than India where it is driving opportunity and Unlocking the universal potential of clean development and transforming our economy technology in the information systems sector is a and society. This important report makes clear critical step toward a low carbon future. Silicon the exciting opportunity that exists for industry Valley innovators and the growing support of to significantly contribute to climate change clean tech investors in California place the state in abatement, as well as expand into new markets. a unique position to lead the effort to combat Nandan Nilekani, Co-Chairman, Infosys global warming. Linda Adams, Secretary, Technologies Limited California Environmental Protection Agency The ICT industry has a very significant role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially in a rapidly developing country such as China. Future development in China should not follow the wrong path taken by developed countries. Many industries can make use of modern ICT technology to move into higher efficiency low carbon markets. If we are to better use ICT technology to move away from existing energy- intensive work habits and lifestyles, we need government policy innovations, incentives for companies and the active participation of consumers. Tang Min, Deputy Secretary-General, China Development Research Foundation
  • 5. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Contents economy in the information age 5 Contents 06 Forewords 09 Report Summary Chapter 1: 12 The time for change Chapter 2: 17 Taking direct action Chapter 3: 29 The enabling effect 29 Dematerialisation 32 SMART motors 36 SMART logistics 40 SMART buildings 45 SMART grid Chapter 4: 53 The SMART 2020 transformation Appendices 63 1: Scope, process and methodology, 65 2: The direct impact assumptions 66 3: The enabling effect assumptions 75 4: Company commitments 79 5: Experts consulted and interviewed 83 6: Glossary
  • 6. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon GeSI Foreword economy in the information age 6 Forewords A force for change 2. Put more emphasis on climate change issues The most recent results presented by climate in our supply chain work so we influence the scientists are alarming. The accumulation of end-to-end manufacturing process for greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere electronic equipment is growing faster than originally predicted. Scientists, economists and policy makers are 3. Ensure that energy and climate change matters calling for emissions targets of at least 20% are fully considered by the organisations that below 1990 levels in 2020. set the technical standards for our industry It is our responsibility to estimate the GHG emissions from the information and 4. Work with organisations in the key opportunity communications technology (ICT) industries areas – travel/transport, buildings, grids and and to develop opportunities for ICT to contribute industry systems – to help turn potential CO2 About GeSI to a more efficient economy. reductions into reality. This will include a strong GeSI (www.gesi.org) is an international “SMART 2020 – Enabling the low emphasis on the significant opportunities strategic partnership of ICT companies and industry associations committed to creating carbon economy in the information age” offered by dematerialisation and promoting technologies and practices presents the case for a future-oriented ICT that foster economic, environmental and social sustainability and drive economic industry to respond quickly to the challenge of 5. Work with public policy makers to ensure that growth and productivity. Formed in 2001, global warming. the right regulatory and fiscal frameworks are GeSI fosters global and open cooperation, informs the public of its members’ We now have evidence demonstrating in place to move us all in the right direction. voluntary actions to improve their that the ICT industry is a key player in creating a sustainability performance and promotes technologies that foster sustainable low carbon society and could do a lot more to help We will do this by involving appropriate partners development. It partners with the UNEP push the world in this direction by 2020. drawn from the business and NGO worlds. and the ITU. These partners help shape our global vision regarding the evolution The ICT sector’s own emissions are In particular we aim to continue our successful of the telecommunications sector and how expected to increase, in a business as usual (BAU) partnership with The Climate Group. We will we can best meet the challenges of sustainable development. scenario, from 0.53 billion tonnes (Gt) carbon also continue to work collaboratively with the dioxide (CO2) in 2002 to 1.43 GtCO2 in 2020. But International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specific ICT opportunities identified in this report and the World Business Council for Sustainable can lead to emission reductions five times the size Development (WBCSD). of the sector’s own footprint, up to 7.8 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), or 15% of total BAU In conclusion emissions by 2020. The ICT sector has both a profitable opportunity This report has identified many and a critical role to play with other sectors to opportunities for the ICT industry, to replace design and deploy solutions needed to create goods and services with virtual equivalents and a low carbon society. I urge you to review this to provide technology to enable energy efficiency. report and focus your efforts on improving The ICT sector must act quickly to demonstrate energy efficiencies wherever possible, to what is possible, get clear messages from policy collaborate with us in steering regulations to makers about targets and continue to innovate be more productive and to move boldly forward radically to reduce emissions. The publication with technologies to improve our global climate. of this report is not an end but a beginning and Acting now will be good for business, good for GeSI is committed to continue to work across the economy and good for the world. the industry as a force for change. In particular GeSI will: 1. Develop an agreed ICT industry-wide methodology for the carbon footprinting Luis Neves of ICT products and services Chair, GeSI
  • 7. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The Climate Group Foreword economy in the information age 7 The SMART solution Companies that implement the solutions will Putting a man on the moon was one of the capture part of the potential global savings of greatest technological challenges of the 20th ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion), once again showing century. In the 21st century we face an even that tackling climate change is not only good for greater test – tackling climate change. In contrast the climate but good for the economy. to the space race, the solutions required today Given the unpredictable nature must encompass us all. This is not just about one of technological innovation, there is always man walking on the moon, but about 7 or 8 billion uncertainty in estimating future impactsand this people, the population of 2020, living low carbon report has identified a number of hurdles that lifestyles in harmony with our climate. must be overcome if the large savings highlighted How can a mission of this size be are to be realised. Furthermore, the ICT sector will achieved? This report illustrates for the first have to focus on reducing its direct footprint as time the scale of the opportunity for ICT to drive the demand for its products and services grows. efficiency across the economy and deliver But this is the first time that the potential of ICT emission savings of 15% - 7.8 GtCO2e - of global to reduce emissions has been put on the same BAU emissions in 2020. plane as other climate change solutions, such as Recently, Lord Stern revised his targets carbon capture and storage (CCS). for safe levels of GHG emissions reductions to This sends a clear message to industry 2 tonnes per capita by 2050 (20 GtCO2e). The leaders and policy makers around the world that, ICT-enabled solutions in this report would make through collaboration, ICT solutions can unlock possible savings of 1 tonne per capita in 2020, emissions reductions on a dramatic scale. a significant step in the right direction. To get things moving forward, this When we started the analysis, we report launches our new SMART framework, expected to find that ICT could make our lives a guide for developing ICT solutions. Through ‘greener’ by making them more virtual – online standards, monitoring and accounting (SMA) shopping, teleworking and remote communication toolsand rethinking (R) and optimising how all altering our behaviour. Although this is one we live and work, ICT could be one crucial piece important aspect of the ICT solution, the first and of the overall transformation (T) to a low most significant role for ICT is enabling efficiency. carbon economy. Consumers and businesses can’t The Climate Group, along with GeSI, About The Climate Group The Climate Group is an independent, manage what they can’t measure. ICT provides will be taking the report findings to the USA, not-for-profit organisation that works the solutions that enable us to ‘see’ our energy China, India and Europe to work with decision internationally with government and business leaders to advance climate change and emissions in real timeand could provide the makers and leading companies to develop a set solutions and accelerate a low carbon means for optimising systems and processes to of scenarios – the vision – focused on how to turn economy. Its coalition of proactive leaders – from government, business and civil make them more efficient. Efficiency may not the ideas presented here into a global reality. society – has demonstrated that emissions sound as inspirational as a space race but, in the Putting a man on the moon was reductions, essential to stop climate change, can be achieved while boosting profitability short term, achieving efficiency savings equal to once thought impossible. The next “giant leap and competitiveness. More companies, 15% of global emissions is a radical proposition. for mankind” is within our reach, but only if states, regions and cities around the world are realising there are significant economic The breadth of solutions will span motor systems, we act now. as well as environmental advantages from logistics and transport, buildings and electricity taking decisive action now. The Climate Group was founded in 2004 and has offices grids – across all key economies in the world. in the UK, USA, China, India and Australia. Mature economies will be able to A European office is planned for 2008. upgrade and optimise entrenched systems and infrastructures. Developing countries could ‘leapfrog’ inefficient mechanisms and integrate state-of-the-art solutions into their Steve Howard evolving societies. CEO, The Climate Group
  • 9. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Report Summary economy in the information age 9 Report Summary 1 The Stern Review suggested that The ICT sector has transformed the way we live, Our analysis identifies some of the biggest and developed countries reduce emissions 20-40% below the 1990 levels would be work, learn and play. From mobile phones and most accessible opportunities for ICT to achieve a necessary interim target based on IPPC micro-computer chips to the internet, ICT has these savings. and Hadley Centre analysis. Source: Stern, N (2008), Key Elements of a Global Deal consistently delivered innovative products and on Climate Change, London School of services that are now an integral part of everyday •Smart motors: A review of manufacturing in Economics and Political Science, http:// www.lse.ac.uk/collections/climateNetwork/ life. ICT has systematically increased productivity China has identified that without optimisation, publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_ and supported economic growth across both 10% of China’s emissions (2% of global 30Apr08.pdf 2 developed and developing countries. But what emissions) in 2020 will come from China’s motor All currency conversions to US$ based on exchange rate ¤1=$ 1.57757, obtained impact does pervasive information and systems alone and to improve industrial at http://xe.com on 9th June 2008. communication technologies have on global efficiency even by 10% would deliver up to 3 Exact figures: ¤553 billion ($872.3 billion) warming? Is it a sector that will hinder or help 200 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e savings. Applied in energy and fuel savedand an additional ¤91 billion ($143.5 billion) in carbon saved our fight against dangerous climate change? globally, optimised motors and industrial assuming a cost of carbon of ¤20/tonne, To answer these questions, this report automation would reduce 0.97 GtCO2e in 2020, for a total of ¤644 billion ($1,015 billion) savings. has quantified the direct emissions from ICT worth ¤68 billion ($107.2 billion).4 4 All value figures here include a cost for products and services based on expected carbon of ¤20/tonne. See Appendix 3 for growth in the sector. It also looked at where ICT • Smart logistics: Through a host of efficiencies detailed assumptions. could enable significant reductions of emissions in transport and storage, smart logistics in in other sectors of the economy and has quantified Europe could deliver fuel, electricity and heating these in terms of CO2e emission savings and savings of 225 MtCO2e. The global emissions cost savings. savings from smart logistics in 2020 would reach Aside from emissions associated with 1.52 GtCO2e, with energy savings worth deforestation, the largest contribution to ¤280 billion ($441.7 billion). man-made GHG emissions comes from power generation and fuel used for transportation. • Smart buildings: A closer look at buildings in It is therefore not surprising that the biggest role North America indicates that through better ICTs could play is in helping to improve energy building design, management and automation efficiency in power transmission and distribution 15% of North America’s buildings emissions (T&D), in buildings and factories that demand could be saved. Globally, smart buildings power and in the use of transportation to technologies would enable 1.68 GtCO2e deliver goods. of emissions savings, worth ¤216 billion In total, ICTs could deliver ($340.8 billion). approximately 7.8 GtCO2e of emissions savings in 2020. This represents 15% of emissions in 2020 • Smart grid: Reducing T&D losses in India’s based on a BAU estimation. It represents a power sector by 30% is possible through better significant proportion of the reductions below monitoring and management of electricity 1990 levels that scientists and economists grids, first with smart meters and then through recommend by 2020 to avoid dangerous climate integrating more advanced ICTs into the change1In economic terms, the ICT-enabled so-called energy internet. Smart grid energy efficiency translates into approximately technologies were the largest opportunity found ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion2) of cost savings.3 in the study and could globally reduce 2.03 It is an opportunity that cannot be overlooked. GtCO2e , worth ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion).
  • 10. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Report Summary economy in the information age 10 While the sector plans to significantly step up the energy efficiency of its products and services, ICT’s largest influence will be by enabling energy efficiencies in other sectors, an opportunity that could deliver carbon savings five times larger than the total emissions from the entire ICT sector in 2020. These are not easy wins. There are policy, market This is the opportunity the ICT sector has in the 5 The scope of this analysis includes whole life emissions from PCs and peripherals, and behavioural hurdles that need to be overcome fight against climate change. But it does come at data centres, telecoms devices and telecoms to deliver the savings possible. For example, a cost. Emissions from the sector are estimated networks. Chinese factory managers find it difficult to stop to rise significantly over the coming years – from producing long enough to implement more 0.5 GtCO2e today to 1.4 GtCO2e in 2020 under efficient industrial processes because they risk BAU growth.5 This growth assumes that the sector losing revenue and competitiveness. will continue to make the impressive advances Logistics efficiency is hampered by in energy efficiency that it has done previously. fragmentation in the market, which makes it However, meeting the sheer scale of demand for difficult to coordinate across the sector to achieve products and necessary supporting services in economies of scale. Even with the latest emerging markets such as China and India and technologies implemented, buildings are only continuing to deliver the services to increase efficiently if managed properly. In India, there is productivity growth in the developed world will no coordinated national roadmap for smart grid effectively outweigh the adoption of the current implementation and more needs to be done to wave of efficiency benefits per product or service. build the cross-functional and cross-sectoral There is also the possibility that the speed of capabilities needed to design and implement introduction and the impact of new ICT innovative business and operating models and technology or the mass adoption of social deliver new technology solutions. networking could cut carbon emissions in ways In addition to the savings possible by currently impossible to predict. supporting other sectors to become more energy While the sector plans to significantly efficient, there are also potential energy savings step up the energy efficiency of its products and from dematerialisation or substitution – replacing services , ICT’s largest influence will be by high carbon physical products and activities (such enabling energy efficiencies in other sectors, as books and meetings) with virtual low carbon an opportunity that could deliver carbon savings equivalents (e-commerce/e-government and five times larger than the total emissions from the advanced videoconferencing). Our study indicates entire ICT sector in 2020. that using technology to dematerialise the way we work and operate across public and private sectors Getting SMART could deliver a reduction of 500 MtCO2e in 2020 The scale of emissions reductions that could be – the equivalent of the total ICT footprint in 2002, enabled by the smart integration of ICT into new or just under the emissions of the UK in 2007. ways of operating, living, working, learning and However, these solutions would need to be more travelling makes the sector a key player in the widely implemented than they are today to realise fight against climate change, despite its own their full abatement potential. growing carbon footprint. No other sector can
  • 11. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Report Summary economy in the information age 11 supply technology capabilities so integral to that drive low carbon alternatives can be energy efficiency across such a range of other developed and diffused at scale across all sectors sectors or industries. of the economy. But with this potential comes with The ICT sector can’t act in isolation if it responsibility. Emissions reductions in other is to seize the opportunity it has to tackle climate sectors will not simply present themselves; the change. It will need the help of governments and ICT sector must demonstrate leadership on climate other industries. Smart implementation of ICTs change and governments must provide the will require policy support including standards optimum regulatory context. This report outlines implementation, secure communication of the key actions needed. information within and between sectors and These actions can be summarised as the financing for research and pilot projects. SMART transformation. The challenge of climate This report demonstrates the potential change presents an opportunity for ICT to first role the ICT sector could play in mitigating standardise (S) how energy consumption and climate change. It is now up to policy makers, emissions information can be traced across industry leaders and the sector itself to make different processes beyond the ICT sector’s own sure this potential is realised. The stakes couldn’t products and services. It can monitor (M) energy be higher. consumption and emissions across the economy in real time, providing the data needed to optimise for energy efficiency. Network tools can be developed that allow accountability (A) for energy consumption and emissions alongside other key business priorities. This information can be used to rethink (R) how we should live, learn, play and work in a low carbon economy, initially by optimising efficiency, but also by providing viable low cost alternatives to high carbon activities. Although isolated efficiency gains do have an impact, ultimately it will be a platform - or a set of technologies and architectures - working coherently together, that will have the greatest impact. It is through this enabling platform that transformation (T) of the economy will occur, when standardisation, monitoring, accounting, optimisation and the business models
  • 12. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The time for change economy in the information age. 01/12 01: The time for change The science would incur a wider range of risks and impacts 6 Pachauri, R.K and A. Reisinger (eds.) (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis As stated in the Intergovernmental Panel on and the estimates of damage could rise to 20% Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2007 Synthesis Report: of global GDP or more. In contrast, the costs II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, of action – reducing GHG emissions to avoid Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate as is now evident from observations of increases the worst impacts of climate change – Change, Geneva, Switzerland. in global average air and ocean temperatures, can be limited to around 1% of global GDP 7 McKinsey analysis for this report, based on IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report widespread melting of snow and ice and rising each year. and International Energy Agency (IEA) global average sea level.”6 The review predicts that failure to act (2007) World Energy Outlook. The global warming debate has now today and in the future could cause possibly 8 Recent analysis suggests that 450ppm may be too high and that we should be aiming shifted from whether or not man-made climate irreversible economic and social disruption to reduce emissions more quickly: King D. change is occurring to what atmospheric levels “on a scale similar to those associated with the and G. Walker (2008), ‘The Hot Topic: How to Tackle Global Warming and Still Keep the of GHG are ‘safe’ and what can be done to great wars and the economic depression of the Lights On’, Hansen J., M Sato, P Kharecha, prevent them from exceeding this threshold. first half of the 20th century”. D Beerling., V Masson-Delmotte, M Pagani, M Raymo, D Royer and J Zachos (2008); Current BAU scenarios predict that Lord Stern has recently joined ‘Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should global emissions will rise from 40 GtCO2e scientists in outlining the worsening nature Humanity Aim?’, http://www.columbia. edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080331.pdf (referred to as both ‘carbon’ and ‘GHG’ of the problem. His report on the economics 9 Stern, N (2006), Executive Summary, emissions in this report) emitted each year in of climate change should have issued a bleaker Stern Review on the Economics of Climate 2002 to nearly 53 GtCO2e annually by 2020.7 warning when it was published 18 months Change, HM Treasury. Current atmospheric GHG levels stand at 430 ago, he said recently “We underestimated the 10 Harvey, F and J. Pickard, “Stern takes bleaker view on warming”, Financial parts per million (ppm) and are rising at risks... we underestimated the damage Times, 17 April 2008, http://www.ft.com/ approximately 2.5ppm every year, leading us associated with the temperature increases... cms/s/0/d3e78456-0bde-11dd-9840- 0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 beyond levels of 450-500 ppm (roughly twice and we underestimated the probabilities of 11 Stern, N. (2008), Key Elements of a Global pre-industrial levels). temperature increases.”10 Deal on Climate Change, London School of The specific figures for what can be Society currently needs to reduce Economics and Political Science, http:// www.lse.ac.uk/collections/climateNetwork/ considered ‘safe’ are not universally accepted8 emissions to about 20 GtCO2e per year by publications/KeyElementsOfAGlobalDeal_ and will continue to be debated as new 2050, according to Stern, about two tonnes per 30Apr08.pdf information becomes available. Whichever person in 2050. Given that the current underlying benchmark is used, the magnitude of cuts rate of decrease in carbon intensity, defined as required will be challenging. tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e)/ GDP, is 1% per year and that the world The economics economy continues to grow by 3-4% per year, Former UK Government and World Bank carbon emissions will continue to grow at Chief Economist Lord Stern, author of the 2-3% per year under a BAU scenario. So to Stern Review,9 makes it clear that to ignore reduce emissions by 20 GtCO2e per year, as rising carbon emissions that will result in recommended by Stern, implies that a dramatic dangerous climate change now, will damage change is needed in production and economic growth in the future. According to consumption profile.11 the report, if no action is taken, the overall costs Both policy makers and industry must and risks of climate change will be equivalent to initiate the rapid implementation of climate losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product solutions before average global temperatures (GDP) each year. Not acting now move beyond a “tipping point” of no return.
  • 13. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The time for change economy in the information age 01/13 12 EU Spring Summit, Brussels The political response wealth. A number of studies have linked the (March 2007). 13 Thirty-four countries have signed up to the growth of ICT to global GDP growth and UK Climate Change Bill (April 2008). 14 legally binding Kyoto Protocol, the agreement globalisation. One analysis16 suggests that a third Germany’s Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (December 2007). negotiated via the United Nations Framework of the economic growth in the Organisation for 15 China’s 11th Five -Year Economic Plan, Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) www.gov.cn/english/special/115y_index. sets a target for average global carbon emissions countries between 1970 and 1990 was due to htm 16 reductions of 5.4% relative to 1990 levels by access to fixed-line telecoms networks alone, Roeller, Lars H. and Leonard Waverman, (2001), ‘Telecommunications Infrastructure 2012. Discussions for a post-2012 agreement which lowered transaction costs and helped firms and Economic Growth: A Simultaneous are currently underway. to access new markets. Approach’, American Economic Review, Volume 91, Number 4, pp. 909-23. Individual regions and countries have Globally, the ICT sector contributed 17 Analysis includes data from Global Insight also developed their own targets. In 2007, the 16% of GDP growth from 2002 to 2007 and (www.globalinsight.com). European Union (EU) announced a 20% emissions the sector itself has increased its share of GDP 18 Waverman, Meschi and Fuss (2005) reduction target compared to 1990 levels by 2020 worldwide from 5.8 to 7.3%. The ICT sector’s ‘The Impact of Telecoms on Economic Growth in Developing Countries, Africa: The Impact and will increase this to 30% if there is an share of the economy is predicted to jump of Mobile Phones’, Vodafone Policy Paper international agreement post-2012.12 The UK is further to 8.7% of GDP growth worldwide from Series 2. 19 aiming for a reduction of 60% below 1990 levels 2007 to 2020.17 Eggleston K., R. Jensen and R. Zeckhauser (2002) ,‘Information and by 2050, with an interim target of about half In low income countries, an average Communication Technologies, Markets and that.13 Germany is aiming for a 40% cut below of 10 more mobile phone users per 100 people Economic Development’, Discussion Papers Series, 0203, Department of Economics, 1990 levels by 2020,14 while Norway will become was found to stimulate a per capita GDP growth Tufts University. carbon neutral by 2050. California’s climate of 0.59%.18 In China, improved communication 20 Jensen R. (2007), ‘The Digital Provide: change legislation, known as AB 32, commits the has helped increase wealth by driving down Information (Technology), Market Performance and Welfare in the South state to 80% reductions below 1990 levels by commodity prices, coordinating markets and Indian Fisheries sector’, Quarterly Journal of 2050. China’s latest five-year plan (2006-2010) improving business efficiency.19 In Kerala, India, Economics, cited in: Economist, ‘To do with the Price of Fish’, 10 May 2007, http:// contains 20% energy efficiency improvement the introduction of mobile phones contributed www.economist.com/finance/displaystory. targets15 to try to reduce the impact of recent fuel on average to an 8% rise in fishermen’s profits cfm?story_id=9149142. 21 shortages on its economic growth. and a 4% fall in consumer prices.20 Member companies of GeSI: Alcatel-Lucent, Bell Canada, British As governments across the world wake Telecommunications plc, Cisco Systems, up to the urgency of rising temperatures, they Deutsche Telekom AG, Ericsson, European Telecommunication Network Operators are increasingly focusing on how business is Scope, process and methodology Association (ETNO), France Telecom, Fujitsu responding to both reduce their carbon footprints The study was undertaken by a unique Siemens Computers, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, KPN, Motorola, Microsoft, Nokia, and to develop and supply the required partnership between not-for-profit Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, Sun innovations for a low carbon world. organisation The Climate Group and ICT sector Microsystems, Telecom Italia, Telefónica SA, US Telecom Association, Verizon, group GeSI.21 The supporting analysis was Vodafone plc. Associate members: Carbon What does this mean for business? conducted independently by international Disclosure Project (CDP), WWF. Supporting Organisations: ITU, Telecommunication Companies must adapt quickly to the political, management consultants McKinsey & Development Bureau, UNEP Division of social, economic and fiscal drive towards a global Company. Input was provided by GeSI member Technology, Industry and Economics. low carbon economy. Businesses that can turn this companies and the global experts consulted for challenge into an opportunity, by developing each of the case studies. business models to enable adoption of low carbon The combined knowledge and solutions, will be in a stronger position to mitigate experience of this group has enabled us to rising carbon emissions and adapt to a world identify and quantify specific ICT impacts dealing with the impacts of climate change. and opportunities, in the context of carbon A radical approach is required that incorporates emission savings and potential economic different ways of thinking, living, working, value. In addition, the analysis drew on playing, doing business and developing solutions. additional data from the ICT companies Action is no longer an option; it has become an involved in the study. It estimated the likely urgent necessity. growth of the ICT sector’s carbon footprint and, more importantly, the carbon emissions What does this mean for the ICT sector? savings and business opportunities that are The terms “the new economy”, “the knowledge possible when ICT is deployed across the economy” and “the information society” all refer economy. A detailed methodology can be to the world’s increasing reliance on ICT to provide found in Appendix 1. services and solutions that ultimately generate
  • 14. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The time for change economy in the information age 01/14 This demonstrates that the ICT sector continues In order to approach the second and third 22 IEA (2008), Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and Efficiency: Key Insights from IEA to play a vital role in the growth of the global questions, it was important to know which sectors Indicator Analysis, IEA/OECD, Paris. economy and international development. are responsible for producing the highest levels of As the imperative to develop zero carbon growth carbon emissions and therefore where ICT might solutions becomes stronger, society needs to enable reductions. Of the total emissions from lower emissions while continuing to serve the human activity in 2002, 24% was from the power needs of people in emerging economies, to sector, 23% from industry, 17% from agriculture develop poverty reduction schemes and enable and waste management, 14% from land use, multiple sectors across the world. What, 14% from transport and 8% from buildings. therefore, are the next steps for ICT? Could Taking another view of the same data – at the it apply its creativity and skills to help reduce point where electricity is consumed and fuel is carbon emissions by massively enabling used – sharpens the focus further. In 2005, efficiency or behaviour change? How big an manufacturing was 33% of end use energy impact could it have? And how will that affect consumption, transport was 26% and households its carbon footprint? 29% (other services and construction made up the final 12%).22 The SMART way The findings of the analysis are highly In order to understand and compare the direct illuminating. Because of its pervasiveness, ICT impact of ICT products and services and its is a key, though often unrecognised, enabling enabling role in climate change solutions, the infrastructure in the global economy. The sector analysis set out to answer three main questions: can enable smart development opportunities for CO2e reductions and participate in the new 1. What is the direct carbon footprint of the sources of value of low or zero carbon solutions ICT sector? markets at the same time as restricting the growth 2. What are the quantifiable emissions reductions of its own carbon footprint. that can be enabled through ICT applications in Even as the sector tackles its own other sectors of the economy? carbon footprint, the need to mitigate climate 3. What are the new market opportunities for ICT change presents opportunities for ICT to deliver and other sectors associated with realising these low carbon energy efficiency solutions. The sector reductions? has a unique ability to make energy consumption and GHG emissions visible through its products Because of growth in demand for its products and and services. Radical transformation of services, mainly from emerging economies and infrastructure is possible only if it is known where the rapid adoption in the developed world, the inefficiency occurs throughout the processes and ICT sector’s own carbon footprint is likely to grow workflows of various sectors in the economy. under BAU conditions to 1.4 GtCO2e by 2020, ICT can provide this data which can be used to three times what it was in 2002. Chapter 2 looks change behaviours, processes, capabilities and at the reasons for this growth, assesses what systems. Although isolated efficiency gains do can be done to reduce it and the hurdles that have an impact, ultimately it will be a platform – need to be overcome for the sector to attain or a set of technologies – working coherently maximum efficiency. together, that will have the greatest impact.
  • 15. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The time for change economy in the information age 01/15 Fig. 1 ICT impact: The global footprint and the enabling effect GtCO2e Emissions ICT footprint Selected ICT-enabled abatements Other abatements† 2002 40.0 ICT 0.5 2020 51.9 ICT 1.4 BAU -14.1* - 7.8 Five times Abatements ICT’s direct footprint 2020 with 30† abatements * For example, avoided deforestation, wind power or biofuels † 21.9 GtCO2e abatements were identified in the McKinsey abatement cost curve and from estimates in this study. Source: Enkvist P., T. Naucler and J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 1 This report has identified global emissions In Chapter 3, the report looks at five of the most reductions of 7.8 GtCO2e in 2020, five times its important “levers” or mitigation opportunities: own footprint (Fig.1). dematerialisation; smart motor systems in China; smart logistics in Europe; smart buildings in North The ICT sector can enable emission reductions America; and smart grids in India. It considers the in a number of ways: impact of ICT on local and global emissions, where ICT could have the most influence on emissions • Standardise: ICT can provide information in reductions, current markets, regulatory context standard forms on energy consumption and and hurdles that need to be overcome if its emissions, across sectors. potential to reduce emissions is to be realised. • Monitor: ICT can incorporate monitoring In parallel with the ICT reducing its information into the design and control for own carbon footprint, governments need to do energy use. more to create a fiscal and regulatory • Account: ICT can provide the capabilities and environment that will encourage faster and more platforms to improve accountability of energy widespread adoption of ICT. Crucially new and carbon. partnerships between governments and the • Rethink: ICT can offer innovations that private sector are required. Chapter 4 develops capture energy efficiency opportunities a framework for understanding the enabling across buildings/homes, transport, power, opportunity of ICT solutions. manufacturing and other infrastructure and provide alternatives to current ways of operating, learning, living, working and travelling. • Transform: ICT can apply smart and integrated approaches to energy management of systems and processes, including benefits from both automation and behaviour change and develop alternatives to high carbon activities, across all sectors of the economy.
  • 17. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/17 02: Taking direct action 23 Gartner, ‘Green IT: The New Industry In 2007, analyst Gartner released a statistic that developments outlined in the rest of the chapter Shockwave’, Presentation at Symposium/ ITXPO conference, April 2007. the ICT sector was responsible for 2% of global are implemented, this figure looks set to grow at 24 Of course a range of figures are possible, carbon emissions23 and this figure has since been 6% each year until 2020. The carbon generated but the report took a BAU scenario with the widely cited. The analysis conducted for this from materials and manufacture is about one best information available from companies and public sources. See Appendix 1 for report came to similar conclusions. This chapter quarter of the overall ICT footprint, the rest detailed methodology and Appendix 2 for sets out in some detail how today’s 2% figure was coming from its use (Fig. 2.1). the direct footprint assumptions. calculated and the assumptions behind the Although there is expected growth in 25 CIA (2007): World Factbook website, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ growth in emissions expected in 2020, taking into mature developed markets, the most significant the-world-factbook/print/ch.html account likely efficient technology developments growth is attributable to increasing demand for that affect the power consumption of products ICT in developing countries (Fig. 2.2). Just one and services or their expected penetration in the in 10 people own a PC in China today; by 2020, market in 2020. Not all technology developments that will rise to seven in 10, comparable to current can be predicted and therefore further possible ownership rates in the US. In just 12 years time, abatements are discussed, but not calculated. The one in two Chinese people will own a mobile chapter concludes with a brief section on what phone and half of all households will be more could be done. connected by broadband. It will be a similar In 2007, the total footprint of the ICT story in India. By 2020, almost a third of the sector – including personal computers (PCs) and global population will own a PC (currently one peripherals, telecoms networks and devices and in 50), 50% will own a mobile phone and one in data centres –was 830 MtCO2e, about 2% of the 20 households will have a broadband estimated total emissions from human activity connection.24 Considering that the populations released that year. Even if the efficient technology of China and India are currently 1.3 billion25 and Fig. 2.1 The global ICT footprint* GtCO2e Embodied carbon Footprint from use 2002 0.11 0.41 0.43 0.53 2% of total footprint 2007 0.18 0.64 0.83 2020 0.35 1.08 1.43 CAGR† +6% *ICT includes PCs, telecoms networks and devices, printers and data centres. †Compounded Annual Growth Rate
  • 18. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/18 1.1 billion respectively26 and that consumption measures, data centres will grow faster than any 26 Ibid in the Indian economy is expected to quadruple other ICT technology, driven by the need for 27 McKinsey Global Institute ‘China in the next four years and the middle class in storage, computing and other information Consumer Demand Model, V2.0’. China is expected to grow to over 80% of the technology (IT) services. Though the telecoms population by 2020,27 these are potentially footprint continues to grow, it represents a smaller huge growth areas. share of the total ICT carbon footprint in 2020 as By 2020, when a large fraction of efficiency measures balance growth and as data developing countries’ populations (up to 70% centres rise to take a larger share of the total in China) will be able to afford ICT devices and (Fig. 2.3). will have caught up with developed countries’ The analysis below took a deeper look ownership levels, they will account for more than at three main areas of the direct footprint: PCs 60% of ICT’s carbon emissions (compared to less and peripherals, data centres, telecoms networks than half today), driven largely by growth in and devices, outlined below. Appendix 1 provides mobile networks and PCs. But these are not the more information about what was included in the fastest-growing elements of the footprint. Despite scope of the analysis and Appendix 2 outlines the first-generation virtualisation and other efficiency assumptions behind each in more detail. Fig. 2.2 The global ICT footprint by geography % of GtCO2e RoW† Other China industrialised EiT* countries OECD Europe 2002 17 18 11 13 16 25 % of 0.53 US and Canada 2007 23 23 12 10 14 20 % of 0.83 2020 27 29 10 7 12 14 % of 1.43 CAGR 9 9 6 3 4 3 % *EiT = Economies in transition. (includes Russia and non-OECD Eastern European countries) †RoW = Rest of the World. (includes India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and Egypt) Fig. 2.3 The global footprint by subsector Emissions by geography % of GtCO2e Telecoms, infrastructure and devices Data centres PCs, peripherals and printers* 2002 28 14 57 % of 0.53 2007 37 14 49 % of 0.83 2020 25 18 57 % of 1.43 CAGR 5 7 5 % * Printers were 11% of the total ICT footprint in 2002, 8% in 2007 and will be 12% in 2020.
  • 19. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/19 Fig. 3.1 The global footprint of PCs – desktops and laptops GtCO2e 2002 0.2 0.2 Embodied carbon Footprint from use Growth along 0.3 1.2 1.5 A Increased number of PCs from current trends 592 million to 4067 million* B 0.23% pa increase in power consumed† and Change in power 0 decrease from 15W standby consumption C Switch in form factor from 84% desktops to 74% laptops and desktop monitors from 90% CRT to 100% LCD Impacts of expected 0.1 1.0 1.1 technology developments 0.2 0.5 0.6 2020 BAU * Based on Gartner estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020. † Based on McManus, T (2002), ‘Moore’s Law and PC Power’ presentation to Tulane Engineering Forum. 28 Printers were included in the overall PCs and peripherals are expected to compensate for the increase in analysis of the ICT footprint, but are not broken down further in this section. In the developed world today, PCs (workstations, PC computing demand, represented by Row B, 29 Analysis includes data from Shiffler, desktops and laptops) are almost as ubiquitous so that overall power consumption is not expected G III. (2007), Forecast: PC Installed Base in people’s homes as televisions (TVs). This is not to grow. Worldwide, 2003-2011, Gartner. yet the case in the developing world, but the However, two major technology explosion in the number of internet cafés developments are expected by 2020. First, the demonstrates that the demand is there. desktop PCs that dominate today’s market (84%) Growing middle classes in emerging economies, will be largely replaced by laptops if adoption whose newfound wealth will allow them to start materialises as forecasted – by 2020, 74% of all buying PCs at developed country rates, will PCs in use will be laptops. Second, all cathode ray substantially increase the global carbon footprint tube (CRT) screens will be replaced by low energy of these technologies. alternatives, such as liquid crystal display (LCD) In 2002, the PC and monitors’ screens by 2020. These two factors explain the combined carbon footprint28 was 200 MtCO2e reduction in carbon footprint in Row C. and this is expected to triple by 2020 to 600 Taking Rows A, B and C together shows MtCO2e – a growth rate of 5% per annum (pa) that the 2020 footprint will rise to three times the (Fig. 3.1). emissions in 2002.29 By 2020, laptops will have overtaken Calculating the PC footprint in 2020 desktops as the main source of emissions The number of PCs globally is expected to (Fig. 3.2) and will make up the largest portion increase from 592 million in 2002 to more than (22%) of the global ICT carbon footprint. four billion in 2020. Row A of Fig. 3.1. shows the Desktops with LCD monitors will represent 20% expected footprint if this growth used today’s of the total ICT footprint in 2020, an increase of PC technology. Since 1986, the power demand 16% since 2002. for PCs has only increased at 0.23% pa, a low rate considering there has been a 45% pa improvement Reducing PC emissions further in computational power. This success has been To reduce the total carbon emissions of PCs achieved by the exploitation of multi-core predicted for 2020 to below 2002 levels would processors and more efficient power supply units. require a 95% efficiency improvement in the By 2020, further advances in power management overall impact from PCs. This cannot only be
  • 20. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/20 Fig. 3.2 Composition of the PC footprint MtCO2e 2002 6% 2% 2020 100% = 247 100% = 643 MtCO2e MtCO2e Laptops Desktops with (6 MtCO2e) CRT monitors Desktops with 91% (0 MtCO2e) 52% 48% LCD monitors Laptops (16 MtCO2e) (333 MtCO2e) Desktops with Desktops with CRT monitors LCD monitors (226 MtCO2e) (309 MtCO2e) Desktops with CRT monitors represented Laptops will represent 22% of the total ICT 44% of the total ICT footprint (91% of 49%). footprint (52% of 42%). Desktops with LCD monitors and laptops Desktops with LCD monitors will represent represented 4% of the total ICT footprint 20% of the total ICT footprint (48% of 42%). (8% of 49%). Fig. 4.1 The global data centre footprint MtCO2e Use 2002 76 Embodied A Increased number of servers and Growth along 349 their necessary power and cooling current trends from 18 million to 122 million* B No increase in power consumption due to new generation technologies Power 0 across server classes† consumption C Savings from expected adoption Impacts of expected of measures (27% efficiency due technology 166 to virtualisation and 18% due to developments smart cooling and broad operating temperature envelope ) 2020 259 BAU *Based on IDC estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020, excluding virtualisation. †Power consumption per server kept constant over time.
  • 21. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/21 30 This category includes blade servers. achieved through a combination of increased collection of servers, storage devices, network 31 Assessments based on data made energy efficiency and longer product life, but will equipment, power supplies, fans and other available by GeSI companies for the purposes of this report. necessitate changes comparable in scale to that cooling equipment – which provide information 32 The net zero increase shown in Row B enabled by the shift from desktops to laptops. at our fingertips, supplying business, government, is due to the adoption of volume servers There could also be breakthrough academia and consumers around the world. which incorporate technologies such as multi-core/multi-threading microprocessors technologies around the corner that would In 2002, the global data centre with more sophisticated power-state transform how PCs use energy. Examples include footprint, including equipment use and embodied sensing and management. Additionally, the rapid adoption of newer processor micro- solid state hard drives, which could reduce energy carbon, was 76 MtCO2e and this is expected to architectures has refreshed the installed consumption by up to 50%, choleristic LCD more than triple by 2020 to 259 MtCO2e – making base of servers with a more power-efficient silicon transistor technology. screens that reduce monitor energy consumption it the fastest-growing contributor to the ICT 33 IDC analysis predicts 83 million servers by up to 80% and direct methanol fuel cells that sector’s carbon footprint, at 7% pa in relative will be needed in 2020 if virtualisation can deliver 20% savings for power supplies. terms (Fig. 4.1). effects are included. Other areas of research such as quantum and optical computing could also have a Calculating the data centre footprint in 2020 substantial impact. These have not been factored If growth continues in line with demand, the into the carbon emission calculations because world will be using 122 million servers in 2020, their impact within the timeframe is uncertain. up from 18 million today. In addition to this 9% pa increase in server numbers, there will be a shift Data centres from high-end servers (mainframes) to volume In the “information age” there is a vast amount servers,30 the least expensive kind of server that of data that is stored and instantly made available can handle much of the computational needs of upon request. Users of these data range from businesses. Row A of Fig. 4.1 shows the increase companies complying with the recent Sarbanes– in footprint that would be expected by simply Oxley accounting data legislation to consumers scaling up today’s data centre technology without watching YouTube videos, to the processing and the application of virtualisation technologies in storage capabilities required for climate change data centres. modelling. This has led to a vast increase in the Power consumption differs by server number of data centres – buildings that house a type but, like PCs, no increase in overall Fig. 4.2 Composition of data centre footprint Global data centre emissions % 2002 2020 100% = 76 17% 100% = 259 18% MtCO2e MtCO2e 36% Volume servers Volume servers (27 MtCO2e) (136 MtCO2e) 52% Cooling systems Cooling systems (24 MtCO2e) (70 MtCO2e) 21% Power systems 32% Power systems (13 MtCO2e) (62 MtCO2e) Mid-range servers Storage systems (5 MtCO2e) (18 MtCO2e) 7% 6% Storage systems 5% 3% High end servers (4 MtCO2e) (5 MtCO2e) High end servers Mid-range servers 1% 1% (2 MtCO2e) (2 MtCO2e) Volume servers represented 5% of the total Volume servers will represent 9% of the ICT footprint (36% of 14%). total ICT footprint (52% of 18%). Data centre cooling systems represented 4% Data centre cooling systems will represent of the total ICT footprint (32% of 14%). 4% of the total ICT footprint (21% of 18%).
  • 22. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/22 consumption is expected in the coming years, down the air conditioning. Similarly, in climates 34 Estimates based on Koomey, J.G. (2007), ‘Estimated Total Power Consumption in spite of increased processing demand.31 where the outside temperature allows, simply by Servers in the U.S. and the World’, This is due mainly to new technologies in all directing external air into the data centre can save http://enterprise.amd.com/Downloads/ svrpwrusecompletefinal.pdf. types of servers32 and explains the net zero cooling costs for much of the year. By allowing the 35 Uptime Institute and McKinsey & change in Row B. temperature of the data centre to fluctuate along Company (2008), Revolutionizing Data A major trend driving down the overall a broader operating temperature range, a 24% Center Efficiency—Key Analyses, http:// uptimeinstitute.org/content/view/168/57 growth in the footprint of data centres (Row C) is reduction in energy consumption from cooling is virtualisation – pooling assets such as computing possible. Distributing low voltage direct current and storage where utilisation is low, so they can (DC) into the data centre would eliminate the be used across the enterprise and beyond. need for mechanical back-up, uninterruptible Virtualisation represents a radical rethinking of power supply units. how to deliver the services of data centres, By 2020, the net footprint for data pooling resources that are underutilised and could centres is predicted to be 259 MtCO2e. At this reduce emissions by 27% – equivalent to 111 point, volume servers will represent more than MtCO2e.33 Technologies are also available to detect 50% of the data centre footprint (174 MtCO2e) where within the data centre temperatures are and cooling systems for data centres alone will running high and to direct cooling to those areas amount to 4% of the total ICT footprint (Fig. 4.2). thus delivering a 12% reduction in cooling costs. By 2020, the analysis predicted that these Reducing data centre emissions further measures could achieve an approximate 18% Additional emission reductions not included in reduction (55 MtCO2e) in consumption. the current 2020 BAU scenario are possible. Only about half of the energy used by Complete adoption of the cooling technologies data centres powers the servers and storage; the noted above would result in additional savings rest is needed to run back-up, uninterruptible of 65 MtCO2e in 2020. power supplies (5%) and cooling systems (45%).34 Higher adoption rates of virtualisation There are a number of ways to reduce this energy architectures and low energy cooling would help overhead, some of which are expected to be achieve step changes in efficiency. Current adopted by 2020. The simplest way is to turn utilisation rates of servers, storage and other Fig. 5 Global telecoms footprint (devices and infrastructure) Global telecoms emissions % 2002 2020 100% = 151 12% 100% = 349 15% 20% MtCO2e MtCO2e Mobile 42% Mobile (66 MtCO2e) (179 MtCO2e) Fixed narrowband 91% Fixed narrowband 14% (64 MtCO2e) (70 MtCO2e) Telecom devices 43% Telecom devices (18 MtCO2e) (51 MtCO2e) Fixed broadband Fixed broadband 51% (4 MtCO2e) (49 MtCO2e) 3% Mobile phones represented 3% of the total Mobile phones will represent 1% of the ICT footprint (11% of 30%). total ICT footprint (6% of 25%). Fixed broadband represented 1% of the Mobile phones will represent 13% of the total ICT footprint (3% of 30%). total ICT footprint (51% of 25%) Fixed broadband will represent 4% of the total ICT footprint (14% of 25%)
  • 23. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/23 assets in the data centre worldwide are low Telecoms infrastructure and devices (6% average server utilisation, 56% facility Increased mobile phone and internet use over utilisation) and vary dramatically depending the past few years has driven a parallel increase on the installation.35 If, for example, a 20% in telecoms infrastructure. Fixed-line, reduction below 2002 emission levels were to narrowband and voice accounts are expected to be achieved, this would entail an increase in remain fairly constant overall, but the number efficiency of 86% globally. Though it may be of broadband accounts – operated by both possible to achieve 86% efficiency in one data telecoms and cable operators37 – will more than centre by more efficient virtualisation double 2007-2020 and mobile accounts38 will architectures and changing the data centre almost double during the same period. From location to reduce cooling needs, adoption of 2002, the growth in telecoms emissions has best practice has its challenges. And although grown from 150 MtCO2e in 2002 to 300 MtCO2e 36 Green Grid data centre efficiency metrics the cost of energy is high, companies are not in 2007 and is expected to reach 350 MtCO2e such as power usage effectiveness (PUE) and data centre infrastructure efficiency often organised so that the person paying for in 2020. (DCiE) can help operators improve the IT equipment is also paying for the energy The relative share of telecoms devices efficiency and reduce costs, http://www. thegreengrid.org/ consumption of that equipment. remains fairly constant, but the mobile network 37 Cable accounts providing broadband but However there is a significant will come to dominate the overall telecoms not cable TV. consolidation trend that may help in dealing footprint by 2020 (Fig. 5). 38 Mobile analysis includes both voice with the existing or legacy data centre impact. and data. It includes a range of existing technologies, GSM, CDMA, EDGE, 3G, etc. Also, organisational attitudes are changing as Telecoms devices costs of operating a data centre surpass the initial The use of mobile phones, chargers, internet investment in equipment and as the data centre protocol TV (IPTV) boxes and home broadband operation becomes a larger share of a company’s routers is set to increase over the next 12 years, overall energy costs. Companies now have a due in the most part to growth in China and India, number of options for computing services, which where the middle classes will catch up with the shift costs from the enterprise to an external current telecoms penetration of developed provider that can potentially deliver these countries. The telecoms devices global footprint capabilities with economies of scale and at higher was 18 MtCO2e in 2002 and is expected to energy efficiency. The “software as a service” increase almost threefold to 51 MtCO2e by 2020,39 business model allows companies to access key driven mainly by rises in the use of broadband enterprise applications such as customer modems/routers and IPTV boxes, which will relationship management databases or expand from a small user base (Fig. 6). collaboration tools via a web browser, with no need to host their own data centre facilities. Calculating the telecoms devices’ footprint Companies can also pay to use server space in 2020 on demand to build their own applications and In 2002, there were 1.1 billion mobile accounts. websites, the way one would pay monthly for This is set to increase to 4.8 billion in 2020 and is electricity or water, known as ‘utility the largest source of global telecom footprint computing’. These are both simple examples of emissions. Increased access to broadband will also what is more generally called ‘cloud computing’, have an impact – the number of routers will grow centralised and highly scalable services that from 67 million in 2002 to 898 million in 2020. could lead to further capacity to virtualise or Increasingly, broadband is also accessed over IPTV consolidate resources with breakthrough gains boxes. Although none of these was sold in 2002, in energy efficiency. if current trends continue 385 million may be in Predicting the pace and intensity of use by 2020.40 The total impact of these increases these virtualisation trends is difficult, but the is set out in Row A of Fig. 6. industry is well aware of the huge efficiency The majority of emissions from mobile opportunity. Initiatives such as the Green Grid, devices come from standby mode, the power a global consortium dedicated to data centre (sometimes known as phantom power) used by efficiency and information service delivery, chargers that are plugged in but not in use. working towards new operating standards Unlike PCs and data centres, the overall and best practices, has attracted support from consumption of telecoms devices is set to decrease the industry.36 over the 2020 timeframe because ‘smart chargers’
  • 24. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/24 Fig. 6 The global telecoms devices footprint MtCO2e IPTV Broadband Mobile Use boxes modems phones Embodied 2002 0 11 2 3 13 16 Growth along 6 14 20 8 13 21 9 40 50 current trends Change in power 9 9 5 5 44 44 consumption 2020 6 5 11 9 9 18 12 10 22 BAU A Increased number of mobiles 1.1 billion to 4.8 billion, routers from 67 million to 898 million and IPTV boxes from 0 to 385 million B Power consumption decreases due to smart chargers and 1W standby (those that turn off when a device is not Telecoms infrastructure 39 Analysis included data from; Schaefer C., C. Weber and A. Voss (2003), ‘Energy usage connected) and 1W (or lower) standby standards As the demand for telecoms devices grows so, of mobile telephone services in Germany’, are rapidly becoming commonplace. The footprint inevitably, will the need for the infrastructure that Energy, Volume 28, Issue 5, pp411-420; Bertoldi, Paulo (2007), ‘European Code of mobile phones therefore increases 4%, given supports it. This growth is due not only to of Conduct for Broadband Equipment’, that a sharp decrease in charger consumption increases in the number of broadband and mobile European Commission DG JRC, http:// www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-t/oth/09/05/ offsets the growth in number of accounts. accounts in emerging economies, but is also to the T09050000010004PDFE.pdf Broadband routers and IPTV boxes increase their sharing of videos and games and other peer-to- 40 Figures based on Yankee Group and footprint comparatively more thanks to higher peer content exchange. IDC estimates and McKinsey trend extrapolation. Embodied carbon from penetration from a small base today (Row B). The telecoms infrastructure footprint, manufacturing and distribution estimated Mobile phones will contribute a including ongoing energy use and carbon from manufacturer studies for mobile phones and from laptop comparisons for smaller share of the telecoms devices’ footprint embodied in the infrastructure, was 133 MtCO2e other devices. in 2020, if predicted power consumption in 2002. This is expected to more than double to reductions from smart chargers and standby 299 MtCO2e by 2020, a growth rate of 5% pa41 modes materialise. (Fig. 7). Reducing telecoms devices’ emissions further Calculating the telecoms infrastructure The footprint of telecoms devices can be reduced footprint in 2020 further if devices produce fewer emissions in A key contributor to carbon emissions in 2020 manufacturing, or if less – and greener – will be mobile networks, driven largely by the electricity is used by the device during its lifetime. increase in base stations and mobile switching Attractive offers that allow service upgrades centres. However, emissions from networks without trading the phone in are already cannot be calculated based on the hardware used increasing the life of the mobile device itself. in the network alone, nor were data available Some companies have announced that they will from each provider on specifically how much experiment with more custom ordering of phones, energy their networks consumed. Therefore, the so that only the requested features are built into analysis used the reported energy consumption the physical device, lowering the carbon of eight telecoms providers and the increased emissions that are due to manufacturing. number of mobile, fixed and broadband accounts – from 2.3 billion in 2002 to 7 billion in 2020 –
  • 25. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/25 Fig. 7 The global telecoms infrastructure footprint MtCO2e Use Embodied 2002 45 88 133 Growth along 86 170 256 current trends Change in power 30 60 90 consumption and embodied carbon 2020 101 198 299 BAU A Increased number of accounts from 2.3 billion to 7 billion (fixed, broadband and mobile)* B Decrease in power consumption and embodied carbon due to expected adoption of efficiency measures *Based on Yankee estimates until 2011 and trend extrapolation to 2020. to calculate the overall footprint of the network. the impact of the adoption of interconnected The total was 256 MtCO2e: see Row A of Fig. 7. devices and the network services they deliver. The uncertainty in the telecoms figures This will enable them to plan for significant is worth noting. Looking at the eight providers, energy efficiency improvement. The analysis the analysis found a wide range in the energy therefore took expected growth in the number of consumed per subscriber per year – anywhere consumer connections as a proxy for growth from 23 kWh to 109 kWh, even when the across the entire telecoms network. composition of services offered by the operator Overall, a decrease in power was similar.42 consumption of telecoms networks per user is There could be a number of reasons for expected, owing to the adoption of efficiency this. First, the operators offering similar services measures and is included in the 2020 footprint. may configure their networks differently. They For example, mobile infrastructure technologies 42 A figure of 50kWh per year per may also outsource parts of the network that currently available include network optimisation subscriber was therefore used to calculate consume energy, including the entire transmission packages which can reduce energy consumption the footprint. 43 Abatements included network and switching components of the network in the by 44% and solar-powered base stations, which optimisation packages (44% reduction in case of virtual operators and therefore don’t could reduce carbon emissions by 80%.43 The energy consumption possible, 80% expected report on the energy consumption of external expected adoption of these measures by 2020 adoption by 2020), more efficient base station amplifiers (9% reduction in energy providers along their value chain. In addition, the would lead to the avoidance of almost 60 MtCO2e consumption possible, 50% expected energy consumption of some network providers is in 2020 (Row B). adoption by 2020), advanced standby power management (15% reduction in dominated by services offered to businesses and Figures from one European telecoms energy consumption possible, 50% expected governments rather than consumers. company show that electricity use per adoption by 2020), night battery operation (50% reduction in energy consumption In general, the distribution of energy information unit decreased between 2003 and possible, 10% expected adoption by 2020) consumption within the telecoms network is 2005 by 39% pa but this has been more than and solar-powered base stations (81% reduction in energy consumption possible, poorly understood and the impact of further negated by an increase in bandwidth 10% expected adoption by 2020). adoption of interconnected devices is unknown. requirements of 50% annually. . However, telecom operators are beginning to use This will continue to be the case: new network management tools to better expected significant improvements in the energy understand the distribution of energy efficiency of base stations, routers, switches and consumption within the telecoms network, other network infrastructure equipment are
  • 26. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/26 unlikely to compensate for the increase in overall Next generation networks (NGN) were not demand. Therefore, though total energy use and explicitly included in the analysis as there was associated emissions will continue to rise, it is little consistent data globally on NGN energy decoupled from the growth in users of the reductions. But in some countries, NGN will be equipment. rolled out before 2020, which could change the projections in this section. In addition, there is Reducing telecoms infrastructure currently a lot of discussion over next generation emissions further access (NGA). This essentially means providing Further abatements are possible that are not faster fixed-line access over fibre optics, rather included in the current 2020 BAU scenario. For than copper, all the way to customer premises. example, if the technologies discussed above were Again there was insufficient whole life data to 100% adopted, an additional saving of 42 MtCO2e include this in the analysis. Over time both these could be achieved in 2020. However, it is not technologies could deliver further carbon always possible to implement these technologies reduction, but there could be an increase in at scale. For example, it is not currently cost emissions over the transition period. effective to implement night battery operation Additional emissions abatement could and solar-powered base stations can be used only be realised by changing the network design to in certain climates. optimise overall network consumption and by Natural ventilation is already being rolling out the most energy and carbon-efficient used by some operators and would reduce the network architecture available today. Older need to cool the base station and core network networks in developed countries continue to equipment. In addition, companies are be supported; however, this is not the case in experimenting with “network sharing”, which the emerging markets where greenfield and reduces the need to construct new networks, “leapfrogging” technology adoption needs to be and tracking the energy consumption reduction geared to low carbon infrastructure. The full benefits. Clarification on best practices in these potential of the best available technology today is areas is expected. unlikely to be realised without cost incentives for consumers or other types of policy intervention. Green power generation The direct carbon footprint of the ICT sector The challenge of reducing the ICT is dominated by electricity consumption, so sector’s footprint an obvious way to reduce emissions is to use The invention of the transistor in the 1950s as much electricity as possible from marked the dawn of the digital age. It introduced renewable sources. personal computing on the one hand and high- ICT companies can do this by capacity, fixed and mobile telecommunications on purchasing renewable electricity, by installing the other. The convergence of these technologies renewable generation on their sites and by is most evident in the ubiquitous internet. making renewable electricity integral to their In 1965 Gordon Moore observed that products. the density of transistors in integrated circuits The sector can also encourage was doubling every 18 months. Now famously policy makers to create the right regulatory known as Moore’s Law, this phenomenon has and fiscal environment to encourage continued to the present day and has meant that investment in large-scale renewable the energy consumption per bit of information generation as this will ultimately lead to a processed or transmitted has fallen by many reduction in the ‘in use’ phase of the ICT orders of magnitude. product life cycle. However, absolute growth in the use of In fact, as outlined in Chapter 3 digital technologies in developed world economies (smart grids), the sector is uniquely placed to has led to an ever - increasing carbon footprint. partner with power companies to optimise And, as this analysis shows, without major the existing electricity grid to allow more paradigm shifts in technological development, efficient power distribution and enable the the growth in both usage and footprint is likely use of more renewable or green power. to continue as more and more people worldwide enter the digital age.
  • 27. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Taking direct action economy in the information age 02/27 As this analysis shows, without major paradigm shifts in technological development, the growth in both usage and footprint is likely to continue as more and more people worldwide enter the digital age. 44 Green Electronics Council’s standard for In the course of this study it became apparent not include maximum efficiency as part of PCs that goes beyond Energy Star. that it is easier to identify the carbon footprint their buying specification. of an individual piece of ICT hardware such as Once more is known about the a mobile phone, or even a dedicated collection performance of products and services, the of technology capabilities, such as a data centre, next step is to improve them. There may be than it is complex and converged network technological or market reasons why this services – such as broadband – delivered to remains a challenge. For example, constant consumers, businesses and government. radical innovation is required to keep making Creating a standardised methodology for the processors more efficient. Some efficiency evaluation of whole life carbon footprints of both gains could be made outside companies’ direct ICT products and services would provide better control – in supply chains for instance – but information to businesses and customers. there is a lack of understanding about how to In turn, this would help create customer pull achieve these. for clean technology which would drive Companies may be able to increase the further innovation. energy efficiency of devices at little or moderate Although ICT offers many ways of additional cost, but there is little point if reducing emissions in other sectors, the sheer consumers can’t assess which products are the scale of the challenge involved in stabilising the most efficient. Work in this area is ongoing - climate means that the sector also needs to step PC labelling schemes such as Energy Star and up its efforts in reducing its direct footprint. Electronic Product Environmental Assessment Whilst much has been done and some ambitious Tool (EPEAT)44 in the US help. This report cannot targets have already been set by a number of detail all the activities currently underway, but companies, (Appendix 4) the urgency of the the surge in interest in “Green IT” over recent situation calls for the ICT industry to use all of months is likely to bring many more options for its high-technology creativity to reduce the businesses and consumers. energy consumption of its products and services But while efficiency of the ICT sector’s as much as it can. own products must be actively pursued, the There are a number of barriers impact on the overall economy – in energy preventing the ICT sector from making further efficiency and dematerialisation – could yield efficiency gains. emissions savings that are five times larger than One of the biggest challenges is its own footprint, close to 8 GtCO2e, if all enabling overcoming the lack of information about the opportunities are adopted. Communications emissions impacts of products and services, technologies and services would provide an especially in the context of complex enabling platform that systematically delivers configurations and integration. In the case of efficiency and replaces high - carbon activities telecoms networks, telecoms providers often with alternatives wherever possible. Realising don’t know the energy consumption of this opportunity is a different sort of challenge, specific services. There are also agency issues as it involves cross-sectoral partnerships and to overcome. For example, the person buying new business models, but will be a crucial the company’s servers may not be responsible component of the transition to a low for their operating costs and therefore may carbon economy.
  • 29. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/29 03: The enabling effect 45 A number of studies in the past decade The ICT sector has a powerful role to play in detail regarding the regulatory and market have looked at the role of ICT (particularly, broadband, IT services and mobile addressing climate change by enabling other context for realising the emissions reductions. communications) in energy efficiency and sectors, such as transport, buildings, power and climate change solutions including: their effects on the productivity of the economy; industry, to become more efficient.45 Although Dematerialisation their ability to replace high carbon products the ICT sector’s own emissions will rise as global Dematerialisation – the substitution of high and activities with alternatives; and their role in monitoring and environmental demand for products and services increases, carbon products and activities with low management. Though far from an these are estimated to be five times less than carbon alternatives e.g. replacing face-to-face exhaustive list, see for example: Laitner, S (2008), Information and Communication the emissions that can be reduced through the meetings with videoconferencing, or paper with Technologies: The Power of Productivity, “enabling effect.” e-billing – could play a substantial role in American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE); Romm, J (1999) The To realise this opportunity will require reducing emissions. Internet Economy and Global Warming, a radical transformation of current infrastructure: Fig. 8 shows that dematerialisation The Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF); Pamlin, D. And K. companies will need to identify and monitor could be responsible for reducing emissions by Szomolanyi (2006) Saving the Climate @ energy use and employ the data obtained to 500MtCO2e (detailed assumptions in Appendix 3), the Speed of Light, WWF and ETNO; Mallon, K. (2007), Towards a High- become more efficient and ultimately transform just less than Australia’s total emissions in 2005.47 Bandwidth, Low-Carbon Future: the way they operate throughout value chains, However, as in all cases, there is some Telecommunications-based Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate cities, regions and whole countries. ICT underpins uncertainty about the exact emissions reduction Risk and Telstra; Fuhr, J.P. and S.B. Pociask, many of these mechanisms. figure because of the unpredictability of (2007), Broadband Services: Economic and Environmental Benefits, The American This report is the first to put a value technology adoption and development. For Consumer Institute; ITU (2008), ICTs for on the global opportunity. It found that ICT instance, the “paperless” office has failed to e-Environment. 46 could reduce global carbon emissions by 7.8 materialise and telecommuting and first- Additional opportunities (e.g. forestry monitoring applications) in other areas GtCO2e by 2020 (from an assumed total of 51.9 generation videoconferencing have not been where emissions are high – such as land use GtCO2e if we remain on a BAU trajectory), an adopted as widely as expected. On the other – could increase the mitigation potential, but because of the much greater complexity amount five times larger than its own carbon hand, dematerialisation could have a larger involved they were not included in the footprint. Savings from avoided electricity and than predicted impact from other future analysis. 47 fuel consumption would reach ¤600 billion technological breakthroughs, not yet identified, Australian Government Department of Climate Change (2008), National Inventory ($946.5 billion). Fig. 8 shows the opportunity that substantially change the way people live Report 2005 (Revised) – Volume 1; ICT has to reduce emissions by sector. and work. The Australian Government Submission to the UN Framework Convention on Climate This chapter looks at five major Like e-commerce, e-government Change, http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ opportunities for reducing emissions – could have a significant impact on reducing inventory/ dematerialisation, smart motor systems, smart GHG emissions through the dematerialisation logistics, smart buildings and smart grids – and of public service delivery – particularly in in each case identifies the role for ICT and the countries where government constitutes a large hurdles to be overcome if the full potential is to share of the overall economy. For example, be realised.46 These opportunities were chosen many paper-based services can be moved into based on the potential for ICT to drive emissions the digital environment and situations where reductions in key regions around the world where face-to-face interaction has been previously the best data were available. required (e.g. to prove identity) can be done Aside from dematerialisation, which virtually. There are also major energy efficiency this report looks at in a global context, a specific gains to be achieved in the governmental supply region was chosen to demonstrate the other chain. While many countries have already begun opportunities. This was done to provide further to implement e-government, the huge potential
  • 30. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/30 Fig. 8 ICT: The enabling effect 1.68 S GtCO2e mar tb uild i ng s ics 0.22 ist 7.8 GtCO2e of ICT-enabled log 1.30 abatements are possible out of art Sm the total BAU emissions in 2020 2 1.5 (51.9 GtCO2e) 1.68 The SMART opportunities Transport including dematerialisation 0.5 Buildings were analysed in depth 2.2 2.4 Industry 0.14 Smart motors 0.22 Industrial process automation 0.16 Dematerialisation* (reduce production of DVDs, paper) 2.03 Sm 0.1 1.1 0.28 Transport 2.1 Smart logistics Industry art g ses Private transport optimisation 0.68 oces id r Dematerialisation (e-commerce, videoconferencing, teleworking) Power pr rial Efficient vehicles (plug-ins and smart cars) ust Traffic flow monitoring, planning nd and simulation 0.29 di 1.75 an Buildings ors Smart logistics† ot 0.4 m Smart buildings rt Dematerialisation (teleworking) ma 7S 0.1 Smart grid‡ 0.9 Power Smart grid Efficient generation of power, combined heat and power (CHP) *Dematerialisation breaks down into all sectors except power. See detailed assumptions in Appendix 3. †Reduces warehousing space needed through reduction in inventory. See Appendix 3. ‡Reduces energy used in the home through behaviour change. See Appendix 3. of the low carbon public sector model remains Currently the largest opportunity identified significantly untapped. within dematerialisation is teleworking – where Various dematerialisation applications people work from home rather than commute into where the most data were available are looked at an office. Although other dematerialisation below to identify the opportunities for mitigating opportunities may come to prominence in the emissions and the hurdles that prevent this future, based on historic trends, the analysis potential from being realised. found that teleworking would have the largest impact, up to 260 MtCO2e savings each year The opportunity (detailed assumptions in Appendix 3). For Dematerialisation can be applied to a range of example, in the US, if up to 30 million people current everyday practices and ultimately reduce could work from home, emissions could be the number of material objects that need to be reduced 75-100 MtCO2e in 2030, comparable to produced. Online billing, media and music, likely reductions from other measures such as replacing paper and CDs all, reduce the emissions fuel efficient vehicles.48 associated with their manufacture and External case studies seem to bear distribution. Fig. 9 shows the impacts of these this out, but are not globally conclusive.49 technologies on global emissions. A UK Department of Transport study found
  • 31. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/31 Fig 9. The impact of dematerialisation GtCO2e Total of 0.46 out of 0.02 BAU 51.9 GtCO2e in 0.03 2020 0.07 Online media E-commerce E-paper Videoconferencing 0.26 Telecommuting 0.08 Source: Expert interviews, January-March 2008 48 Comparison based on abatement potential that teleworking reduces the commuting car Dematerialisation could also reduce emissions as outline in Enkvist P., T. Naucler and J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for mileage travelled by teleworkers by 48-77% indirectly by influencing employees’ behaviour, Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey which, taking into account some increases in building greater awareness of climate change and Quarterly, Number 1. 49 domestic travel, represents an 11-19%50 reduction creating a low carbon culture throughout TIAX (2007), ‘The Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Telecommuting and in both mileage and trips. businesses, though these impacts are less e-Commerce’, Consumer Electronics What the existing case studies show quantifiable. Dematerialisation at the very least Association; Matthews H.S. and E.T. Williams (2005), ‘Assessing Opportunities is that the impact of working from home varies provides alternatives, allowing individuals to for ICT to Contribute to Sustainable depending on the amount of time spent at home control their carbon footprint in a very direct way. Development’, DG Information, Society and Media, European Commission. and the efficiency of the economy in which First adopters could enable the cultural shifts 50 UK Department of Transport, ‘Smarter teleworking is introduced. For example, if a necessary for ICT-enabled energy efficiency to Choices’, http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/ significant number of people worked from home take hold in the broader economy. sustainable/smarterchoices/ 51 more than three days a week, this could lead to Gartner; Matthews H.S. and E.T. Williams (2005), Assessing Opportunities for ICT to energy savings of 20-50%, even with the increase Hurdles to adoption Contribute to Sustainable Development, DG in energy used at home or non-commuter travel. While dematerialisation undoubtedly has the Information, Society and Media, European Commission; TIAX (2007) The Energy and Home-working allows employers to use or build potential to play a significant role in reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Telecommuting smaller offices that require less energy to emissions, it has had limited impact so far, mainly and e-Commerce, Consumer Electronics Association. construct and maintain. However, the impact is owing to low adoption rates. In 2005, only 1-2% 52 TelCoa - The Telework Coalition, Greater much lower if take-up is lower than three days of the US workforce teleworked,51 and many Washington DC Telecommuting Online a week because it would still be necessary to employers remain unsure about the technology. Survey Findings May 2003, http://www. telcoa.org/id110.htm maintain office space for periodic home-workers. According to a survey by US teleworking Also, in efficient countries, such as Japan, the coalition, TelCoa, 54% of companies thought that impact of teleworking may be reduced. teleworking made it difficult for employees to Tele- and videoconferencing – collaborate and 46% thought it made it harder to conducting meetings online or on the phone manage employee performance.52 instead of face-to-face – could also reduce Though technological barriers are not emissions. Previous conservative estimates have generally perceived as a major barrier to adoption, suggested that tele- and videoconferencing could improvements here could contribute to a more replace between 5 and 20% of global business positive attitude towards the technology. travel. Advanced videoconferencing applications Many companies are still unwilling to adopt in the early stage of adoption could have a very dematerialisation technology at higher rates significant impact in highly distributed service because it requires adopting new ways of working industry environments in both the private and with significant cultural shifts. Yet if it could be public sectors. demonstrated that this new way was better and
  • 32. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/32 easy to adapt to, adoption rates would improve. The next generation of professionals are 53 Economist Intelligence Unit (2008), Managing the Company’s Carbon There are signs that these attitudes already equipped with the tools and knowledge Footprint: The Emerging Role of ICT, are changing. The Economist Intelligence Unit to take dematerialisation forward, attending to http://www.viewswire.com/report_ dl.asp?mode=fi&fi=1723298157.PDF&rf=0 recently launched a report based on a series of many activities and aspects of their lives 54 Technology may be a barrier, but was not interviews with businesses that highlighted the online. Studies on the networking and mobile identified as such in this analysis. However, low instance of including ICT technologies in use of 10- to 16-year-olds shows that they are 10 Mbit/second access is more readily available to about one third of households climate change strategies. The report is optimistic actively using collaborative technologies and in Western Europe and Asia, much less so in that in the next few years this could change may develop very different ways of working North America or Eastern Europe. dramatically, but this will require a different in the future.55 55 Boyd, Danah. (2007) ‘Why Youth (Heart) Social Network Sites: The Role of Networked approach from businesses and governments.53 But, as noted earlier, the carbon Publics in Teenage Social Life.’ in David In terms of the broader emission reduction opportunity that Buckingham (ed.), MacArthur Foundation Series on Digital Learning – Youth, Identity dematerialisation opportunities outside the dematerialisation offers is relatively small and DigitalMedia Volume, (Cambridge, MA: workplace, the challenge comes from the current compared with the mitigation opportunities to be MIT Press). global infrastructure. It does not yet support found in applications that cover larger emissions high-quality and affordable internet service to bases for enabling greater efficiency in other all consumers and businesses, though there are industrial sectors. For example, emissions globally significant regional variations: most households from commuters and the buildings that support in Europe and North America are not equipped them is 830 MtCO2e, so an ambitious 31% to receive high quality digital services,54 Asia implementation of teleworking yields 260 Mt Pacific and the rest of the emerging markets CO2e emissions savings. On the other hand, are leapfrogging old technologies and installing reducing 15% of the 4.6 GtCO2e emitted by high-speed broadband as standard, which makes industrial activity would yield 680 MtCO2e a shift towards a dematerialised way of life easier. of savings globally. The efficiency opportunities in Overcoming the hurdles industry, transport, power and buildings created There are a number of solutions to combat these by ICT (7.3 GtCO2e in total) are covered in more challenges, some of which are already being detail below. implemented. They include: SMART motor systems • Developing company /institution blueprints for Motor systems – devices that convert electricity telecommuting that can be piloted and rolled into mechanical power – lie at the heart of out in phases global industrial activity. These include • Analysing where substitution could have the transformers such as those used in compressors most impact and providing governments with and pumps and variable speed drives (VSD) used the information they need to develop effective in conveyor belts and elevators. Though invisible policy to promote these solutions to most of us, these devices are crucial to the • Cities and national governments taking a leading manufacturing sector and, as this sector expands, role in promoting the delivery of broadband so does energy demand. Carbon emissions as infrastructure, supporting advanced a result of energy used by the growing collaboration technologies and building remote manufacturing industry in regions such as China working sites just outside city centres. increase still further, as most of the electricity required will be generated using carbon-intensive What is at stake? coal-fired power stations.56 The opportunity for dematerialisation to reduce carbon emissions could be substantial – The global context 500 Mt CO2e in 2020 – but its effectiveness Industrial activity is one of the largest depends on behavioural changes, which makes contributors to global emissions, responsible for it hard to assess how quickly its true potential 23% of total emissions in 2002 (9.2 GtCO2e). will be realised. It uses nearly half of all global electrical power In addition, future social change generated, industrial motor systems using the facilitated by near-ubiquitous connectivity majority (65%) and by 2020, motor systems will (mobile or broadband), could enable greater be responsible for 7% of global carbon emissions emissions reductions than this report suggests. (Fig. 10.1).
  • 33. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/33 Fig 10.1. SMART motor systems: The global impact in 2020 GtCO2e Total emissions BAU 0.29 in 2020 = 51.9 GtCO2e Total emissions from power used by 6.5 0.97 industrial systems Total ICT smart motor system 0.68 abatements ICT-driven automation in key industrial processes Optimisation of variable speed motor systems 56 About 70% of power consumed in China ICT could play a significant role in mitigating motor system efficiency. The ICT sector has is generated by coal – China Statistical Yearbook, 2006. global carbon emissions from motor systems and additional roles to play. Simulation software is 57 Government of New South Wales, industrial process optimisation, up to 970 MtCO2e required to help improve plant and manufacturing Energy Smart Business Program, http:// in 2020. These opportunities are not going process design. Wireless networks that allow www.energysmart.com.au/wes/default. asp?&t=200852216 unnoticed – initiatives such as Energy Smart57 inter-machine and system communication, 58 BC Hydro, Power Smart for Business, in Australia, BC Hydro’s Power Smart58 in Canada would improve efficiency across an entire http://www.bchydro.com/business/ and Motor Decisions Matter59 in the US are all factory. Fig. 10.2 summarises the role ICT pspartner/pspartner51113.html working with businesses to identify optimal use could play in improving motor and industrial 59 Consortium for Energy Efficiency, Inc., Motor Decisions Matter, http://www. of smart motors in their processes and the carbon system efficiency. motorsmatter.org/index.html and economic savings are substantial. Indeed, The opportunities for industry in 60 Government of New South Wales, Energy the Energy Smart Business Program states that adopting ICT-driven improvements to reduce their Smart Business Program: Unlocking Energy Efficiency Opportunities in the Industrial properly sized, energy efficient motors with climate impact are clear – perhaps nowhere more Sector, http://www.energysmart.com.au/ electronic VSD and improved gears, belts, so than in countries where business is booming. wes/images/pdf/technical_paper_heavy_ industrial_final.pdf bearings and lubricants use only 40% as much Given that much of the growth in industrial 61 IEA (2007), Tracking Industrial Energy energy as standard systems and, in financial energy demand has been in emerging economies, Efficiency and CO2 Emissions, http://www. terms, with a four-year payback project, VSD with China alone accounting for about 80% of the iea.org/Textbase/npsum/tracking2007SUM. pdf installations for the control of conveyors and growth in the last 25 years,61 the potential for combustion and ventilation fans can deliver large-scale utilisation of smart motor systems energy savings upwards of AUS$120 million will be greatest there. (¤73 million/$115 million) a year.60 Smart motor systems in China The opportunity: How ICT can help Manufacturing is the engine of China’s economic Motors can be inefficient as they operate at full growth and will continue to be so until 2020, but capacity, regardless of load. A motor is ‘smart’ even now it is struggling to cope with the heavy when it can be controlled to adjust its power usage demand on its energy resources. Between 2004 to a required output, usually through a VSD and and 2006 there were serious power shortages and intelligent motor controller (IMC), a piece of two years ago, 26 out of 31 mainland provinces hardware controlling the VSD. cut power for industrial and residential customers. There is a lack of information about Motor systems are part of the reason energy consumption in motor systems and where for this: they currently use 70% of total industry savings can be made within a factory. ICT’s main electricity consumption and are 20% less role in the short term, therefore, will be to monitor energy efficient than those in Western countries. energy use and provide data to businesses so they By 2020, industrial motor systems in China will can make energy and cost savings by changing be responsible for 34% of power consumption manufacturing systems. These data may also be and 10% of carbon emissions, or 1-2% of useful for organisations setting standards for global emissions.62
  • 34. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/34 Fig. 10.2 SMART motor systems: The role of ICT Transform Rethink Standardise, • System intelligence and integrated control of devices Monitor & across the plant and the Account • Optimisation of motor systems wider business through using information on • Integration with sales and required output of motor logistics • Monitoring of energy system consumption and energy • Optimisation of industrial Technologies and services savings systems through receiving • Protocols for system • Central repository of energy information at the factory level communication and consumption data on actual output of all motor interoperability • Transfer of energy systems in real time • Servers and storage to support consumption data to local and • Remote and centralised control integrated control of devices central governments for of VSDs (central intelligence • Wireless protocols for regulatory compliance providing instructions to VSDs) machine-to-machine • Analysis of energy communication (e.g. TCP/IP consumption data Technologies and services for industrial systems) • Simulation of systems by plant • Device integration in company Technologies and services designers and operators and/or plant • Chips and controllers for • Manufacturing process design • Tailored optimisation solutions VSD intelligence technology for different sectors • Digital meters and • Wired/wireless components for real time communications between VSD information and central control system • Database collection of energy • Wired/wireless audits integrated with communications between VSD business software and rest of the plant • Central collection of real time • Software to analyse and energy data optimise design of motor and • Interface with monitoring industrial system agencies
  • 35. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/35 “We cannot underestimate the potential influence that wireless communications can bring to the manufacturing process and control.” Electronic Engineering Professor, Chinese University 62 Analysis includes data from IEA ICT has an important role to play in making have no incentives to install VSD.” Director of (2007), ‘World Energy Outlook: China and India Insights’; Enkvist P., T. Naucler Chinese industry more efficient and with Information, Beijing Office, Electric Motor and J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for government regulation aiming for a 20% increase industry Body Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 1. in energy efficiency by 2010 relative to 2005, * ¤18,298/$28,885 - based on exchange saving energy is high on the agenda for industry. Hurdles to adoption rate figures obtained at http://www.xe.com There are a number hurdles preventing companies on 9th June 2008 at ¤1=10.9300 RMB and $1=6.92400 RMB respectively. “We have spent RMB 200,000* on simulation from adopting smart motor technology. These are: 63 This assumes a replacement rate on software. It helps us calculate the optimal value historic trends of 10% per year. IEA for multiple variables in our steam network.” • Lack of capital for investment in the integrated Industrial Motor Systems Efficiency workshop (May 2006); Nadel S., W. Manufacturing Planning Manager, Multinational automation and ICT technologies required Wanxing, P. Liu, A. McKane (2001),‘The Auto Manufacturer • Poor awareness of the business case for China Motor Systems Energy Conservation Program’, LBNL. reducing energy use through optimisation Industrial energy use in China could be reduced • Reluctance to install technology for fear by 10% by improving the efficiency of motor of disrupting production processes and systems. VSDs, which control the frequency of losing revenue electrical power supplied to the motor, thereby • A lack of capacity and skills to operate advanced adjusting the rotation speed to the required automation technologies output, are the most effective means of saving • A lack of nationwide standards or certification energy - up to 25-30%. IMCs, which monitor the • Out-of-date infrastructure that can’t run load condition of the motor and adjust the voltage new systems. input accordingly, offer minor efficiency gains (3-5%), but have the benefit of extending the “Even though there is a good business case, motor lifespan, which reduces the number of new Chinese companies either do not trust the motors required and therefore the manufacturing business case or take a short-term view. They emissions associated with this. prefer upfront cash to promised future cash The impact of these measures on flows.”Director, Environmental NGO emissions reduction would be substantial. Motor system optimisation alone could reduce China’s “The more you produce, the more you earn. emissions by 200 MtCO2e by 2020.63 This is Manufacturing disruptions mean revenue comparable to the total 2006 level emissions from losses.”Engineering Professor, Chinese University the Netherlands. Overcoming the hurdles in China “Our research is focusing on tailored and There are a number of possible ways to overcome integrated solutions for entire plants in different these hurdles. These include: sectors.”Marketing Director, Leading Chinese Automation Manufacturer • Providing benchmarking, showcasing the most successful initiatives “End users don’t directly buy small and medium- • Implementing automated auditing of the most sized motors. They buy machines. Energy energy-intensive businesses, with aggressive efficiency is not a major decision factor for these energy use reduction targets and target end users. Therefore, machine manufacturers monitoring
  • 36. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/36 • Creating government subsidies for best-in-class and mid-voltage, high-efficiency VSD.64 64 Analysis includes data from expert interviews, January 2008. technology adoption The Energy Foundation also invests in 65 IDC (2007) • Providing low-interest loans to fund energy developing policies to improve energy efficiency efficiency within industries and overcome institutional barriers. The • Making financing mechanisms, such as energy International Finance Corporation (World Bank) service companies (ESCOs), available to procure has a new China Utility-based Energy Efficiency energy efficiency as a service Finance Program (CHUEE) with over $50 million • Developing internationally recognised ICT (¤78.8 million) invested in many projects. In architectural standards for integration of addition to this, further international funding efficient motor systems to enable ICT platforms mechanisms could also be made available to • Undertaking further research on the role of ICT provide support to this process. and motor systems in industrial automation. There is also a nascent market for ESCOs operating in China, financed by the In China, a number of these solutions are already World Bank and GEF. These companies engage being implemented. Faced with the recent power in performance contracting and get paid for shortages, the Chinese government has begun to each kWh saved, usually based on contracts tackle energy efficiency as a matter of urgency of five to six years. and there are now a significant number of policy The emphasis on energy efficiency measures to improve it. in China means that both MNCs operating in the The 11th five-year plan – a rolling control systems market and smaller local players programme for 2006-2010 – sets a national goal are growing their businesses fast. Local players of a 20% improvement in energy efficiency. The are small compared with MNCs, but serve local Chinese government is undertaking relevant small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and benchmarking to ensure this target is achieved, therefore the Chinese automation market is allowing Chinese companies to compare their expected to continue to grow rapidly, rising by energy efficiency performance against each other 29% between 2007 and 2011.65 and multinational corporations (MNCs). The government has also launched the China Motor What is at stake? Systems Energy Conservation Programme and Assuming a carbon price of ¤20($31.5)/tCO2e, 10 key energy saving programmes, one of which emissions reductions of 200 MtCO2e by focuses on motor system optimisation in energy 2020 would represent a saving of up to intensive industries such as coal mining. ¤4 billion ($6.3 billion) pa in carbon costs. The End-Use Energy Efficiency Savings in electricity use would be worth ¤8 Programme (EUEEP) run by the United Nations billion ($12.6 billion) pa. The total value for Development Programme (UNDP) and the ICT and other high tech companies in China Global Environment Facility (GEF) invest would therefore be ¤12 billion ($18.9 billion) pa millions in efficiency projects. Additionally, the by 2020 (detailed assumptions in Chinese government is working with the top Appendix 3). 1,008 most energy-intensive businesses, auditing Whereas China offers the largest their energy use, proposing aggressive energy potential saving because of the size and use reduction targets and providing consulting inefficiency of its manufacturing base, ICT could and skill building to help companies reach reduce emissions in any industrial process these targets. throughout the world. This opportunity would Government subsidies are now be worth ¤68 billion ($107.2 billion) in 2020. available to pay the difference between regular and high-efficiency motors and up to 20% of VSD SMART Logistics installations, which will help deal with the lack of Global goods transport is growing rapidly, capital available for companies to invest in the as a result of globalisation and global economic new technologies. To increase awareness and to growth. The logistics of this vast operation strengthen the business case, the Ministry of (including packaging, transport, storage, Science and Technology is financing and consumer purchasing and waste) are inherently publishing research on areas such as motor system inefficient. For instance, vehicles often carry little energy-saving technology for the mining industry or nothing on return journeys. As fuel costs and
  • 37. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/37 66 Compared with 23% from industry taxes rise, the need to run more efficient logistics by other ICT-driven solutions in this report, the (process emissions and direct emissions from primary energy use), forestry (14%) operations is increasingly important. ‘Smart opportunities to make the logistics industry more and agriculture and waste (18%). IEA logistics’ comprise a range of software and efficient have important economic considerations, (2004), World Energy Outlook. hardware tools that monitor, optimise and manage since it operates such a high-value market. In operations, which helps reduce the storage 2005, the value of the global logistics industry needed for inventory, fuel consumption, was estimated at $3.5 trillion (¤5.5 trillion).67 kilometres driven and frequency of vehicles travelling empty or partially loaded. The opportunity: How ICT can help ICT can improve the efficiency of logistics The global context operations in a number of ways. These include The transport sector is a large and growing emitter software to improve the design of transport of GHGs, responsible for 14% of global networks, allow the running of centralised emissions.66 The majority of logistics emissions distribution networks and run management come from transport and storage. Optimising systems that can facilitate flexible home logistics using ICT could result in a 16% reduction delivery services. Specific levers include in transport emissions and a 27% reduction in intermodal shift, or moving to the most efficient storage emissions globally. type of transport, eco-driving, route ICT-driven applications across logistics optimisation and inventory reduction. There could achieve a reduction in total global emissions are a number of specific technologies that could of 1.52 GtCO2e (Fig. 11.1). Although this figure is already enable more efficient logistics,68 as set relatively modest compared to reductions offered out in Fig. 11.2. Fig. 11.1 SMART logistics: The global impact in 2020 GtCO2e Total emissions 0.04 BAU in 2020 = 51.9 GtCO2e 0.01 0.18 0.34 0.18 Figures 0.02 1.52 expanded 0.02 0.03 0.33 0.01 0.25 19.3 0.10 Total emissions from buildings (storage) Optimisation of logistics network In-flight fuel efficiency and transport (includes 11.7 from Intermodal shift (commercial) Reduction in ground fuel consumption buildings, 7.6 from transport) Optimisation of collection/delivery Reduction in unnecessary flight time Ict–enabled transport and storage itinerary planning Maximisation of ship load factor abatements (includes 1.29 transport and Optimisation of route planning - e.g. (commercial) 0.22 storage) avoidance of congestion (commercial) Optimisation of ship operations Eco-driving (commercial) (commercial) Reduction in unnecessary flight time Minimisation of packaging (commercial)
  • 38. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/38 Fig. 11.2 SMART logistics: The role of ICT Transform Rethink •Vehicle and load management Standardise, systems to identify unused Monitor and capacity within the supply •Increase communication chain Account between devices and between •Reverse logistics to allow the logistics providers and suppliers back-loading of vehicles on the •Tag and track inventory, stock •Optimise and control inventory network and for the return of and other items throughout to reduce vehicle miles in unsold/damaged goods to the the supply chain delivery or returning stock supplier •Track local terrain and to the manufacturer •Apply systems thinking from information for understanding •Model and optimise distribution production to consumer to end of optimal routes network design throughout of life •Information systems supply chain design to provide the driver with real •Conduct stock repair tasks on Technologies and services time information about the behalf of the manufacturer •CO2e emissions tracking vehicle’s efficiency and •Manage day to day operations platforms behaviour with real time data •Electronic freight exchanges •Track efficiency against (EFX) to allow for the ‘auction’ Technologies and services business performance of spare space on vehicles •Radio frequency identification •Reverse logistics platforms (RFID) for asset tracking Technologies and services •Protocols for system •Geographical information •Broadband networks interoperability systems (GIS) to combine •Messaging platforms enable •CO2e route optimisation sensing with geographical notifications between system standards and software terrain components •E-commerce and other •Data recorders for vehicles •Telematics e-services •Onboard driver information •Supply chain design and and data logging modelling software •Real time fleet tracking •Real time route optimisation •Global Positioning Systems (RTRO) software (GPS) •Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) systems •Installed base management platforms •Vendor managed repair (VMR) platforms; also known as maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) •Business and operational support systems (BSS) (OSS)
  • 39. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/39 “People have a tendency to look at a single element of the system rather than looking at the whole system.” Senior Executive, Logistics Software Provider 67 Wall Street Research, http://www. The barrier posed by this fragmentation is vast, • Logistics operators and service providers tend wallstreetresearch.org/reports/wkol.pdf 68 yet the industry is consolidating. Some of the best to take a short-term approach to investment in Analysis included data from expert interviews, Jan – Feb 2008. examples of this development can be seen in the improving efficiency 69 BAU transport emissions are projected to European context. • The existing infrastructure is outdated, making rise at 1.8% pa to 2020 and beyond to 2030, it hard for wholesale changes to be implemented mainly owing to Europe’s ongoing economic growth, aviation transport being the fastest SMART logistics in Europe • Lack of industry standards prevents growing in the sector. IEA (2007); Herzog There are a number of different types of interoperability between the many different T., J. Pershing and K. Baumert (2005), ‘Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas companies involved in the logistics industry, systems that currently exist within the Data and International Climate Policy’, including those that help clients integrate their logistics industry World Resources Institute; WBCSD (2000), Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) Transport supply chain, provide warehousing, transport • Anti-competition regulations often prevent Model. and IT services and make deliveries. It’s a rapidly cooperation between companies: e.g. major 70 Between 2003 and 2005, goods imported expanding market: logistics activities are predicted supermarkets in the UK can’t work together into the EU increased from 2,101 to 2,170 million tonnes, an increase of 4%. The to grow by 23% between 2002 and 2020, to create a shared logistics chain. weight of goods transported within the representing 18% of European GHG emissions in EU-25 rose from 1,400 to 1,500 million tonnes in the same period, also an increase 2020. The majority of logistics emissions come “Railways give primacy to passenger travel, which of 4%. Global Insight; EU (2006), Energy from transport and storage. means that freight can be delayed by significant and Transport in Figures, http://ec.europa. eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/ These emissions have been growing amounts of time.” Head of Research, Global pocketbook/2006_en.htm and are likely to continue to do so in the long Logistics Service Provider 71 Expert interviews, Jan - Feb 2008. term.69 Rising consumption, as indicated by a 2% growth in OECD Europe’s real GDP between 2000 “80% of fleets in the UK have less than five and 2005, has increased goods transportation and trucks.” Analyst, UK Government Agency cross-border trading.70 Manufacturing often occurs far from the point of sale and products “In order to realise the benefits of a new contain parts manufactured in multiple locations, technology, logistics companies need to re- which has also contributed to the increase. engineer some of their processes.” Professor, Several barriers71 are preventing the UK University widespread adoption of energy efficiency measures, the most significant of which is the Overcoming the hurdles in Europe high level of fragmentation in European logistics. There are a number of current technologies and But these also opportunities for ICT and other strategies that could improve the efficiency of high-tech companies. logistics. These include: Hurdles to adoption • Integrating systems across the supply chain to While some early adopters are taking up smart allow sharing of information between planning logistics technology, many are not for a number and execution to provide visibility across the of reasons: system • Calculating and monitoring the carbon • European road freight market is fragmented, footprint across the region through which creates natural inefficiencies and hampers ICT solutions capital investment in energy efficiency • Developing a common protocol for freight technologies exchange to allow small players to exchange
  • 40. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/40 freight and maximise load A survey of the top 100 freight shipping 72 Analysis includes data from Eurostat; Lloyd’s Register (www.lr.org/Services/ • Allowing exceptions to anti-cooperation laws companies found that 26% of importers and 28% Shipping+information.htm); Drewry in areas where significant efficiency gains of exporters reported on their emissions, while Shipping Consultants (http://www.drewry. co.uk/); Cl-online (www.ci-online.co.uk); are possible. 7% of importers and 10% of exporters said they MergeGlobal (http://www.mergeglobal. had reduced emissions.75 com/); International Air Transport Association (www.iata.org/index.htm); Some initiatives are already underway to tackle American Shipper (www.americanshipper. these hurdles. The French road transport industry What is at stake? com); Transport Topics (www.ttnews.com); US Census (www.census.gov/main/www/ is undergoing significant consolidation and this is As fuel prices rise, logistics companies will cen2000.html) starting to spread to the rest of Europe. Significant accelerate their adoption of ICT-based energy 73 Ibid merger and acquisition activity has taken place efficiency solutions, which will have a huge 74 CDP (2007), CDP Report 5, over the past few years.72 Air and ocean transport impact on reducing their emissions – up to http://www.cdproject.net/cdp5reports.asp players are busy consolidating, too. The top 10 225 MtCO2e by 2020, 27% less than BAU. 75 CDP (2007), CDP Report 5, http://www. cdproject.net/cdp5reports.asp; PIERS container shippers had 37% of the market in The value of the potential savings through Journal of Commerce data (www.piers.com) 2000; by 2006 that had increased to 65%.73 more efficient commercial road transport alone Further consolidation would make it easier for (161 MtCO2e) is estimated to be up to ¤33 billion the industry to adopt common practices and ($52 billion) in Europe. standardise logistics efficiency improvements Improving the efficiency of logistics in the future. globally is a much larger opportunity. With Several large shipping companies have emissions reductions potential of around 1.52 announced plans to track and reduce logistics- GtCO2e and assuming a carbon price of ¤20 related emissions in the future. Six of them have ($31.5)/tCO2e, this could be worth as much as formed the Supply Chain Leadership Coalition to ¤280 billion ($441.7 billion), of which ¤251 billion press suppliers to release data on their emissions ($395.9 billion) is from energy savings and ¤29 and climate change abatement strategies.74 billion ($45.7 billion) from carbon costs There are signs that rising fuel costs are (Appendix 3). starting to force operators to improve efficiency. Fig. 12.1 SMART buildings: The global impact 2020 GtCO2e Total emissions 0.06 BAUin 2020 = 0.02 51.9 GtCO2e 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.45 11.7 1.68 Figures expanded 0.15 0.24 0.39 Total emissions from buildings (including Intelligent commissioning Heating, ventilation and air conditioning power) total emissions from power used Improved building design for (HVAC) by industrial systems energy efficiency Lighting automation Total ICT–enabled smart buildings BMS Ventilation on demand abatement Voltage optimisation Reduced building space through design Benchmarking and building recommissioning
  • 41. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/41 “Ideally, we could apply the principles of interoperability (‘plug and play’) to buildings. ICT plays a role, but the reality is ‘plug and pray’ rather than ‘plug and play’.” Stephen Selkowitz, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) SMART Buildings Environmental Design (LEED) (USA). The term ‘smart buildings’ describes a suite Yet, while these initiatives guide of technologies used to make the design, proactive architects, designers and builders in construction and operation of buildings more their quest for ‘green’ building, until this currently efficient, applicable to both existing and new- niche market becomes mainstream, with build properties. These might include building mandatory standards and smart building management systems (BMS) that run heating regulations, the full positive impact of ICT and cooling systems according to occupants’ on the building sector will not be felt. needs or software that switches off all PCs and In addition, because buildings are monitors after everyone has gone home. BMS major sites for electricity consumption, there is data can be used to identify additional a strong proposition to link them with ‘smart grid’ opportunities for efficiency improvements. initiatives and even transport. Project Better Place A host of BMS already exist and as ICT is currently piloting plug-in vehicles, which draw applications become more sophisticated, electricity from the home or electric filling the range of BMS functions will expand. stations, to see whether there are negative impacts on grid stability – an initiative that relies The global context on ICT to make it work. Global building emissions were 8% of total emissions in 2002 (3.36 GtCO2e). These figures The opportunity: How ICT can help exclude the energy used to run the buildings. Energy consumption in buildings is driven by If this is taken into account, the sector would two factors – energy intensity and surface area. emit 11.7 GtCO2e in 2020. ICT offers a major ICT-based monitoring, feedback and optimisation opportunity to reduce emissions from this tools can be used to reduce both at every stage of sector, by 15% in 2020, by the options set out a building’s life cycle, from design and in Fig. 12.1. construction to use and demolition. Emissions from buildings in emerging Buildings are often poorly designed at economies, such as India and China, are expected the outset, with little consideration for how they to grow as their populations become increasingly will be used or how uses may change over time. urbanised. In spite of increased attention to Even if energy efficiency has been incorporated energy wasted in buildings, construction is taking at the start, a building’s actual energy place the world over with little consideration of performance can be impaired if builders deviate the implementation of best practice energy from the plans or if occupants do not operate efficiency measures. Several national schemes the BMS according to plans or specifications. have been set up to establish and promote these Assuming the building has been designed and best practice standards in efficiency. These built to specification, poor commissioning include: EnerGuide for Houses (energy retrofits (ensuring the building’s systems function as and upgrades) and New Houses (new specified), constant change of use and poor construction) (Canada); Green Building Council/ maintenance can significantly reduce the House Energy Rating (Australia); DGNB effectiveness of any BMS. This means that (Germany); BREEAM (UK); CASBEE (Japan); and, buildings differ dramatically in the energy they perhaps best known, Leadership in Energy and consume and as a result the same technology
  • 42. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/42 Fig. 12.2 SMART buildings: The role of ICT Transform Rethink •Create a connected urban Standardise, environment such that Monitor & •Recommission to find buildings are adjustable to human behaviour Account inefficiencies in BMS. The two •Improved human-to-machine areas of the greatest impact are interface •The ability to change the local lighting and HVAC •Software to design the built conditions based on occupant •Improve engagement and environment systems from behaviour involvement from users transport through to building •Occupancy-based lighting •Building and energy use •Demand control ventilation management control systems •Teleworking and collaborative •Correction of hardware (EMCS) technologies to reduce need controls •Removal of software errors for office space •Measuring building •Remote building management performance/networking •Improvements to operations Technologies and services •Modelling and simulating and maintenance •Open standards for energy consumption •Energy modelling from design interoperability between •Daylight control systems through building use different technology sets •Automated whole building Technologies and services Technologies and services control systems (AWBCS) and •Sensors for remote monitoring •Building design and simulation automated whole building and measurement software (e.g. temperature diagnostic systems (AWBDS) •Chips and controllers for BMS modelling, fluid dynamic •Maintenance of energy •In-building network systems modelling) generation services (e.g. •Building equipment (e.g. LED •BMS photovoltaic energy supply) lighting) •Implementation of building •Automated building code •Building automation solutions automation (e.g. shade control checking services (e.g. occupancy-based systems, motion based lighting) refrigerator case lighting) •Interconnectivity between building systems (e.g. EMCS,, lighting, security systems) •Appliance interconnectivity and networking and remote appliance control •Operations and maintenance of building communication systems
  • 43. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/43 76 US and Canada have the highest building applications can have very different impacts. Case study: smart living emissions per capita, according to Enkvist P., T. Naucler and J. Rosander (2007), There are various smart buildings The Solaire building in New York was the ‘A Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction’, technologies available today that can help reduce US’s first ‘green’ residential tower and was The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 1; data from Global Insight. emissions at each stage of a building’s lifecycle. inspired by the Battery Park City Authority’s 77 Solaire site visit; expert interviews, Energy modelling software can help architects initiatives. As well as other sustainability Jan -Feb 2008. determine how design influences energy use. features, it contains a comprehensive BMS 78 California has decoupled energy Builders can use software to compare energy to control the entire building. This was built generation from provision so that energy efficiency can be profitable. models with actual construction. Once the into the plans at the design stage, is building is complete, ICT can measure and continuously updated and undergoes an benchmark its performance and compare actual annual re-commission. The BMS provides to predicted energy efficiency. Occupants can real time monitoring and reacts to external install a BMS to automate building functions stimuli, such as the weather. Winner of such as lighting and heating and cooling and if several awards and recipient of the LEED Gold a building undergoes a change of use. ICT can be rating, the Solaire is 35% more energy used to redesign its energy model and measure efficient than building code requirements and the impacts of this change. uses 67% less energy than other similarly Fig. 12.2 shows how ICT can identify sized buildings in peak hours. Since opening energy consumption, optimise for reduction in in 2002, energy consumption has decreased energy and emissions and transform current ways by 16% and, as a result of its green of designing and using the built environment. credentials, the developers have been able to The US and Canada are home to some of the most charge a rental premium of 10%.77 exciting and ambitious innovations in smart building technology. Among the measures are the implementation of building codes and standards, offering SMART buildings in North America incentives to builders, owners and occupiers to North American buildings are among the most adopt efficiency measures, strengthening the inefficient in the world,76 responsible for a quarter business case for investing in efficiency of all global building emissions. Since most of the technology and training more people to floor space that will be in use in the US and implement and operate BMS. Canada by 2020 already exists, retrofitting and But despite ICT’s proven role in better management of existing buildings will be improving the energy efficiency of buildings, at least as important as efficiencies in new build. emissions are still rising. A number of barriers Some states in the US, such as California, have appear to be preventing those involved in the already demonstrated significant potential to design, construction and use of buildings from improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions adopting the technology and realising the full in buildings. abatement opportunities. Recognising the contribution that buildings make to global emissions, both the Hurdles to adoption US federal government and individual states There are a number of barriers the adoption of have implemented a number of policy initiatives the technology and realising the full emissions that are starting to improve buildings’ efficiency. savings opportunities. These include:
  • 44. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/44 “Efficiency is not being built into buildings today to the extent that it could be. It will take decades to change how this is done.” Stephen Thomas, Johnson Controls • Lack of incentives for architects, builders, • Develop new business models to overcome the 79 Cleantech Ventures, www. cleantechventures.com.au developers and owners to invest in smart misalignment in incentives that currently exists, 80 Analysis includes data from expert building technology from which they will such as performance contracting and tax credits interviews, Jan -Feb 2008. not benefit • Develop new financial mechanisms for builders •Unclear business case for investing in energy that support investment in energy efficiency, efficiency: energy consumption is a small part such as mortgages that fund energy efficiency of building cost structure, yet building or carbon credits automation costs can be high and payback • Prioritise sectors such as retail where energy periods are often long forms a large share of addressable costs • The buildings sector is slow to adopt new • Develop green building valuation tools technology – a 20-25-year cycle for residential • Develop supportive long-term solutions such as units and a 15-year cycle for commercial government- or industry-led alliances that can buildings is typical accelerate industry change • A lack of skilled technicians to handle • Provide better training to building operators and complex BMS – most buildings of less than information to users by simple devices such as 10,000 sq ft (930 sq metres) do not have trained visual smart meters or interfaces to influence operating staff behavioural change • As each building is designed and built as unique, • Develop open standards to enable it is difficult to apply common standards for interoperability of BMS. efficiency and operations • Interoperable technologies exist but are not Faced with the rising energy costs of the past few uniformly deployed. Many experts agree that years, the US government has begun to tackle an open standard would be the most effective energy efficiency as a matter of urgency and way to enable further innovation overcome some of these hurdles. • Lack of incentives for energy companies to At the federal level, the US government sell less energy and encourage efficiency is active in developing voluntary standards and among customers.78 tools such as the Energy Star programme, which is now extending to rate building energy efficiency. “Building owners and operators want simplicity. At state and council levels, California’s Global They do not want too much automation and Warming Solutions Act, AB 32, which calls for intelligence built into the system without the GHG reductions to 1990 levels by 2020 and ability to override it.”Gareth Ashley, Wisconsin’s plan to reduce GHG emissions from Associate, Arup public buildings by 20% by 2010 are just two of many initiatives underway. “If airplanes were built like buildings, you A number of developments have taken wouldn’t fly in them.”Stephen Selkowitz, LBNL place in the commercial sector and within industry bodies. Venture capital investment for energy Overcoming the hurdles in North America efficient solutions increased by 42% in 2005- A number of solutions could be implemented to 2006. Considerable promotion has gone into overcome these barriers: efficiency improvements in HVAC, smart buildings and other environmental systems.79
  • 45. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/45 Tax credits, such as the Commercial Building Tax SMART Grids Deduction, have been introduced to persuade Current centralised energy distribution networks developers to invest in energy efficiency. BMS are often huge, inefficient grids that lose power providers and ESCOs80 now offer performance in transmission, require an overcapacity of contracting, in which third parties invest in generating capability to cope with unexpected efficiency technology in exchange for a share of surges in energy use and allow one-way the money accrued from the energy savings. communication only – from provider to customer. Carbon credits and mortgages can In most countries, selling energy back to the grid now be used to fund efficiency measures and (e.g. that generated from solar panels) is green building valuation tools, which allow an impossible. This way of operating is becoming economic assessment of energy efficiency. increasingly untenable: the costs of fuel are rising The Green Building Finance Consortium Initiative is and a global emissions trading scheme (ETS) is also helping to demonstrate the business case likely in the next few years. Electricity producers for efficiency. can’t afford to waste the amount of power that Alliances and initiatives, such as the they currently do. Retail Energy Alliance and the Building America A ‘smart grid’ is a set of software Consortium, have been set up to deal with the and hardware tools that enable generators to shortage of skilled buildings managers and route power more efficiently, reducing the need better training is now in place for building for excess capacity and allowing two-way, real operators. Building users are the target of time information exchange with their customers information campaigns to raise awareness of for real time demand side management (DSM). energy efficiency issues. It improves efficiency, energy monitoring and data capture across the power generation and What is at stake? T&D network. Across North America as a whole, a 15% reduction in energy consumption from buildings The global context could equate to emissions reductions of 420 The power sector accounted for 24% of global MtCO2e and create value of up to ¤39 billion emissions in 2002 and could be responsible for ($61.5 billion). Globally, smart buildings 14.26 GtCO2e in 2020. The potential for ICT to technology could potentially reduce emissions reduce carbon emissions through smart grid by 1.68 GtCO2e and be worth ¤187 billion ($295 technology could be substantial – some billion) of energy savings and ¤29 billion ($45.7 2.03 GtCO2e by 2020 (Fig. 13.1). And recent billion) in carbon costs (Appendix 3). This value developments across the globe are working to can be captured by ICT and other high-tech turn that future projection into reality. companies. However, to realise this opportunity In 2005, the European Technology will require minimum standards of energy Platform (ETP) SmartGrids was set up to create efficiency in existing and new buildings. a joint vision for the European networks of 2020 and beyond. The platform includes representatives from industry, T&D system operators, research bodies and regulators and the overall goal of the project is to develop a strategy
  • 46. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/46 Fig. 13.2 SMART grids: The role of ICT Transform Rethink •Support for and integration Standardise, of renewables and distributed Monitor & •Better planning and generation •Intelligent dispatch Account forecasting •Captive generation integration •Improved asset management •Grid-to-vehicle solutions •Better information for •Improved network design consumers and producers •Remote grid management Technologies and services of power •Preventive maintenance •Protocols for grid-wide system •Remote monitoring and •DSM interoperability measurement •Operations and maintenance •Improved energy accounting Technologies and services of grid communications •Improved billing services •Grid management systems systems (e.g. supervisory control and •Advanced telecommunications data acquisition (SCADA) and to allow distributed energy Technologies and services output management system producers to pool resources •Sensors for remote measuring, (OMS)) and to handle spikes in supply chips and controllers for •Asset inventory and network and demand monitoring design systems (e.g. GIS tools) •New platforms (e.g. ETS) •Smart meters (advanced •Load analysis and automated metering infrastructure (AMI) dispatch software or automatic meter reading •Workflow management (AMR)) systems for the grid •Energy accounting software •Performance contracting •Smart billing software applications – IP-based billing or prepaid •Demand response software metering that allows automated load maintenance
  • 47. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/47 Fig. 13.1 SMART grids: The global impact in 2020 GtCO2e Total emissions BAU in 2020 = 51.9 GtCO2e 0.9 Total emissions from the power sector Total ICT smart grid abatement potential 14.26 2.03 1.68 Reduce T&D losses 0.83 Integration of renewables Reduce consumption through 0.68 user information DSM 0.28 0.02 81 European Commission, European for research, development and demonstration management systems (also known as “dynamic Technology Platform SmartGrids: Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of of smart grids in practice. The ultimate aim of the demand”) automate the feedback process by the Future, ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/ project is to work towards an interactive energy allowing appliances such as refrigerators to fp7/energy/docs/smartgrids_en.pdf generation and distribution network across dynamically reduce their load at peak times. 82 Congressional Research Service, Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Europe in which a proportion of the electricity Fig. 13.2 outlines the emissions reductions A Summary of Major Provisions, 21 generated by large conventional plants can be opportunities for the sector. December 2007, http://energy.senate.gov/ public/_files/RL342941.pdf displaced by distributed generation, renewable The emergence of smart grids as an 83 The OECD countries averaged only energy sources, demand response, DSM and alternative to well-established, existing 14% losses. Although these are projected energy storage.81 infrastructures is very much upon us and in to fall to 22% by 2020, losses will still be substantially higher than the 13% The US is actively pursuing smart grid the years to 2020 much change is expected. expected in the OECD. IEA (2007),‘ solutions. In 2007, the government passed the Yet in places such as India, where the network’s World Energy Outlook: India’s Energy Prospects – Reference Scenario’; Central Energy Independence and Security Act, Title XIII inefficiencies are severely impeding economic Electricity Authority (2007), ‘Seventeenth of which establishes a national policy for grid growth, the imperative to transform the current Electric Power Survey’, Ministry of Power, Government of India. modernisation and seeks to deliver a host of system and remedy these shortcomings is 84 IEA (2007), ‘World Energy Outlook: India’s measures including a research and development immediate. Energy Prospects – Reference Scenario’. (R&D) programme for smart grid technologies and a regional demonstration initiative, with a SMART grids in India view to revolutionising the country’s energy Electricity generation currently accounts for 57% system. 82 The Modern Grid initiative, affiliated of India’s total emissions and will continue to do with a US Department of Energy research lab, is so until 2020. India’s power network is highly driving grid modernisation research. Gridwise, a inefficient and much of the generated electricity public-private alliance, is also engaged in is wasted. The lack of transparency in the grid research and market development activities to makes losses difficult to measure, but it is support enhancement of grid reliability or plug- estimated that in 2007 India lost 32% of total in vehicles. generation.83 The opportunity: How ICT can help “The power network today is blind as they do not ICT is integral to the range of technologies that know where the losses are.” Senior Official, comprise a smart grid. Some of these include Indian Ministry of Power smart meters, which allow consumers more information about how much energy they are At the same time, India’s power sector is under using or allow automated reading of energy pressure to grow to meet increasing demand, consumption data, helping the utility to better which could rise 13 times by 2020. Because of the understand where energy is being used and more country’s reliance on coal-based energy (69% of advanced grid management systems. Demand total demand) and since it is not expected to
  • 48. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/48 “Smart grid implementation would offer India the opportunity to leapfrog current western technologies.” Balawant Joshi, Managing Partner, ABPS Infra Case study: the long path to a smart grid together would help utilities monitor energy use 85 IEA (2007), ‘World Energy Outlook: India’s Energy Prospects – Reference Without the full implementation of a smart across the Scenario’; Central Electricity Authority grid, one utility, North Delhi Power Limited grid better and allow them to trace the source (2007), ‘Seventeenth Electric Power Survey’, Ministry of Power, Government of India. (NDPL), has figured out a way to get better of energy losses, whether they be theft or 86 Analysis includes data from Central data about its highest-paying customers using otherwise. Electricity Authority (2007), ‘Seventeenth a Global System for Mobile (GSM) There is a further emissions reduction Electric Power Survey’, Ministry of Power, Government of India; CMIE database communications. What is essentially a opportunity in smart grids’ capacity to support (www.cmie.com); ABS Energy Research, stripped-down mobile phone is programmed decentralised energy production. This could “India – Utility meter market profile,” (www. absenergyresearch.com); National Council to call twice each month to meters where allow renewable energy to be integrated into the of Applied Economic Research (2005), ‘The customer consumption data is stored, the way grid, reducing coal-based generation and Great Indian Market’; Global Insight it might call to a dial-up modem. The data are therefore emissions. Decentralised energy 87 Wadhwa, S (2007), ‘5 Years of Sustained Efforts towards Business Excellence’, FICCI downloaded and used by a local call centre to sources could also allow the grid to respond to presentation; expert interviews, generate monthly billing. Much more real local power surges and shortages, making it easier Jan-Feb 2008. time data would be available, but for now, to manage. 88 Ibid. even this twice-monthly download gives the Action is urgently needed to tackle the utility what it needs to improve billing, detect energy losses. Improving efficiency could also theft, get better usage and outage data and reduce power generation investment costs. The improve failure detection. It is currently power sector and the Indian government are automating a part of the low voltage expected to invest significantly to support GDP distribution system to remotely control growth, providing upcoming investments that will streetlights and inaccessible switches that will last 20-30 years. This represents an opportunity improve monitoring capability on the to put in place a ‘best in class’ system early and distribution network.87 leapfrog grid technology.86 NDPL has also implemented a deploy low-emission coal technologies until supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) 2030,84 emissions from India’s power sector are system until substation feeder level and a central expected to grow at 4% pa, twice the global SCADA control centre to manage substations and average. feeders, resulting in reductions of T&D losses in Given the rapidly rising demand for the region from 53% to 23%, better asset energy, high carbon intensity of supply, high grid management and faster outage resolution.88 losses, rising energy costs and the fact that India is investing massively in infrastructural Hurdles to adopting smart grids in India development in the coming years, smart grids are of particular relevance to India. Action now could “No investment can be tariff neutral; someone prevent the country being locked-in to a high has to pay.” COO, Distribution company emissions situation for the next 30 years. The most important technologies for In spite of the urgent need in India, there are India are ICT platforms that help reduce T&D barriers to smart grid implementation, which losses. These include remote measurement and include the following: monitoring of energy use, remote grid element management and energy accounting, which
  • 49. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/49 “Smart Grid technologies show great potential to (a) manage what you measure and (b) use two-way control for real time monitoring and DSM.” Ajay Mathur, Director General, Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency 89 Ministry of Power, Government of India • No proven commercial viability for large-scale standards and protocols for the grid (2007),‘Report on Key Issues Pertaining to Indian Power Sector’; expert interviews smart grid rollouts • Adoption of open source standards to Jan- Feb 2008. • Poor financial health of most state-owned T&D enable development of applications for the 90 Not including the potentially large companies in India, which affects the levels of smart grid. benefits of smart grids beyond the reduction of T&D losses such as DSM, investment in new technology integration of renewables and improved • Low awareness of technological developments, The Indian government has introduced several asset management. with most utilities being unfamiliar with the policy initiatives to implement some of these latest options and benefits solutions, which are beginning to spur demand • No coordinated national road map for smart for smart grid technology. grid implementation The Electricity Conservation Act was • The industry is fragmented, with no introduced in 2001 and is a legal framework for standardisation between companies. promoting energy efficiency in all sectors of the economy, as it also led to the formation of the “If it is thrust on people, it is likely to be Bureau of Energy Efficiency. In 2003, the National rejected.”COO, Distribution Company Electricity Act was passed to speed up the development of efficiency within the electricity “The political environment must support the sector. The 2008 Accelerated Power Development change to a smarter grid. There are many vested and Reform Programme (APDRP) v2 has been interests from those who want to perpetuate this introduced to accelerate power distribution sector high loss regime.”India Expert reforms. The programme provides 50% of the funding needed by utilities for investment as Overcoming the hurdles in India loans and offers 50% of cash loss reduction as a There are some policies, developments and grant. The aim is to reduce T&D losses to below technologies that could help overcome these 15%, improve the commercial viability of the hurdles. These include: sector and enable the adoption of smart technology elements across the grids.89 • Creating a national policy roadmap for There is also a focus on smart grid phased rollouts and pilots of smart grid funding in policy and on new clean technology technologies funding mechanisms, such as the GHG tax on • A new focus on smart grid funding policy and utilities imposed by the Rajasthan Electricity alternate funding mechanisms (e.g. clean Regulatory Commission. development mechanism (CDM) or multilateral The Indian government is also looking institutions) to change the sector’s structure by setting a target • New clean tech funding mechanisms to privatise 25-30% of electricity distribution in • Staff training in new operating models and large urban areas by 2012, which helps in getting capabilities finance for upgrade projects. • Accelerated privatisation of the distribution utilities “Under the APDRP v2, there is more emphasis on • Creation of a smart grid framework for the entire and funding available for smart technologies.” Indian electricity grid Managing Director, State-owned Distribution • Establishment of common communication Company
  • 50. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/50 Prevention of the rebound effect requires an emissions-containing framework (such as emission caps linked to a global price for carbon) to encourage the transition to a low carbon economy. Without such constraints there is no guarantee that efficiency gains will not lead to increased emissions. What is at stake? The rebound effect 91 Berkhout, Peter H. G., Jos C. Muskens, Jan W. Velthuijsen (2000), ‘Defining the India needs and will continue to need, smart In all cases above, at both global and individual rebound effect’, Energy Policy, Volume grids to stem losses in T&D (including theft) country level, ICT has a major role to play in 28, Issues 6-7, June, pp. 425-432; Plepsys, A. (2002), ‘The Grey Side of ICT’, while reducing the carbon intensity of its power driving efficiency of the economy. However, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, generation to help match the growing power there are hurdles to be overcome, whether Volume 22, Issue 5, October 2002, pp. 509-523. demand and reduce emissions against a BAU technological, informational, organisational, 92 The causal links between increases in growth rate. Although the market is currently market or policy related. economic output, economic output and total dominated by non-ICT players, IT and telecom But beyond these hurdles, the factor productivity remain unclear. Sorell, S (2007), The Rebound Effect: an Assessment providers could extend their current academic literature points to some uncertainty in of the Evidence for Economy-wide Energy capabilities to deliver solutions for smart grids. the net impacts of increased efficiency. In theory, Savings from Improved Energy Efficiency, UKERC, http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/ And if they can do that the opportunities are greater efficiency should lead to less energy use Downloads/PDF/07/0710ReboundEffect/0 potentially huge. and fewer emissions. However, many are 710ReboundEffectReport.pdf Smart grids can directly address critical concerned that these gains will not be secure. needs of the Indian electricity sector and could Efficiency improvements in devices, machines save 30% of T&D losses, equivalent to 95 MtCO2e and systems may lead to ‘rebound effects’, where in 2020. That equates to ¤6.7 billion ($10.5 billion) overall consumption continues to increase. in energy savings and ¤1.9 billion ($2.9 billion) in For example, improved transport carbon costs. The value at stake globally is efficiency could result in lower manufacturing estimated to be ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion) costs, lower prices, greater purchasing power and, (Detailed assumption in Appendix 3).90 as a result, increased demand for products and Smart grid technology may also have services.91 Using technology that saves time (e.g. impacts in other countries and regions. In teleworking which reduces the commute to work, California, for example, smart grids may meet for example) may mean more time is available for additional needs, such as improving grid stability, other, potentially higher-carbon activities such as improving planning and forecasting (financials) holidays or shopping. In the past, pervasive, more and ‘grid-to-vehicle’ solutions in which multiple efficient technologies such as the steam engine or hybrid car batteries (when not in use) could be the electric motor have actually increased used to provide temporary storage and supply of society’s energy use as economies have become power. Globally, smart grids offer the opportunity more productive.92 to save up to 2.03 GtCO2e by 2020. ICT technologies can improve efficiency and this will lead to reduced emissions. However, prevention of the rebound effect requires an emissions-containing framework (such as emission caps linked to a global price for carbon) to encourage the transition to a low carbon economy. Without such constraints there is no guarantee that efficiency gains will not lead to increased emissions.
  • 51. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect economy in the information age 03/51 Conclusion It is becoming clear that incremental change is not ICT can make a major contribution to the global going to be enough to tackle climate change to the response to climate change. It could deliver up degree and at the speed required to keep carbon to a 15% reduction of BAU emissions in 2020 at ‘safe’ levels in the atmosphere. Nothing less (7.8 GtCO2e), representing a value of ¤553 billion than a shift from a high to low carbon global ($872.3 billion) in energy and fuel saved and an economy is required and in many cases ICT additional ¤91 billion ($143.5 billion) in carbon appears to offer the best way to accelerate this. saved assuming a cost of carbon of ¤20/tonne, But much more needs to be done if the ICT sector for a total of ¤644 billion ($1,015 billion) savings. is to perform this role and the final chapter This saving in CO2e is more than five times the suggests a framework for getting there. size of the sector’s own footprint and its size demonstrates the important role an advanced communications platform can play in the transition to a low carbon economy. This opportunity can be broadly categorised into three roles for ICT: standardising, monitoring and therefore increasing accountability of energy consumption; rethinking how we live, play, learn and work based on those data; and transforming existing value chains and integrating infrastructure processes and systems across all sectors of the economy. ICT could achieve additional step change savings though technological advances in the future but these are harder to quantify and have not been included in the above figures. For example, future technologies such as global freight exchanges – where hauliers and couriers can buy and sell work – could stimulate greater efficiency and behavior change that would allow further dematerialisation. Machine-to-machine communication would allow for continued optimisation of energy and industrial systems, often invisible to the consumer. Rather than painting an a futuristic picture of a low carbon society in 2020 and then looking at what would be needed to achieve it, the analysis conducted for this report relied on historic trends to derive a highly pragmatic set of impacts for the ICT sector going forward and identified the hurdles that could stand in the way.
  • 53. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/53 04: The SMART 2020 Transformation 93 For data centre information in particular, There is no guarantee that the opportunities • Standardise: Develop protocols to enable see the McKinsey/Uptime Institute report Uptime Institute and McKinsey & presented in this report will be developed at scale smart systems to interact Company (2008), Revolutionizing Data or deliver the emissions reductions identified. • Monitor: Make energy and carbon Center Efficiency—Key Analyses, http:// uptimeinstitute.org/content/view/168/57 The ICT sector must not only seek new missions visible partnerships but also act to slow the growth of • Account: Link monitoring to accountability the carbon footprint from its own products and and organisational decision making services. This will require companies to develop • Rethink: Optimise for energy efficiency new approaches to product and market and find alternatives to high carbon growth development and move fast to grasp • Transform: Implement low carbon opportunities. infrastructure solutions across all sectors Even where technology solutions are at scale. available and there are pressing economic and efficiency reasons to adopt that new technology, The companies within the ICT sector should first there are challenges that require action from apply this framework to their own operations, other stakeholders. However financially desirable products and services. solutions may be, they often do not happen. Although some governments are taking action, Applying the SMART framework to ICT much more could be done to help the ICT products and services sector take the lead in the transition to a low If a SMART ICT-based infrastructure is to have carbon economy. the impact that the report identifies, the sector Policy makers need to send clear signals itself must comply with the highest efficiency that overall emissions reductions will be required. and innovation standards for its own products Further, they will need to harmonise policies to and services. enable the “smart” infrastructure needed for a More efficient ICT products and low carbon economy and focus on integrating ICT services are being developed, but take-up is low requirements into building codes and transport, today and will need to be accelerated.93 Like the energy, environmental and innovation policies. shift from desktops to laptops, a structural change Setting up these appropriate policy frameworks, in the devices used to connect to the internet will incentives, new business models and partnerships be needed to achieve more than incremental would facilitate knowledge transfer and reductions in emissions. implementation of the technology. Such actions As mobile networks roll out would entail an unprecedented but not in developing economies, they will need unachievable level of coordination and secure sources of power, including decentralised collaboration across sectors and between business clean power. Development and adoption of IT and government. architectural paradigm shifts (e.g. virtualisation across all ICT assets) has the potential to SMART framework: requirements for a low radically change current expectations of carbon infrastructure energy efficiency. The SMART framework introduced in Chapter 3 Next steps for the ICT sector to reduce and set out below outlines what needs to happen its own direct footprint include the following for this reduction in emissions to be realised.
  • 54. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/54 Standardise Transform Ensure that the standards organisations working Systematically follow best practice for rollout in the ICT industry bring climate change of new products. Transform the ICT sector to an considerations into their existing work. Energy exemplar of low carbon technology. Source low consumption should be an important component carbon power wherever possible and in particular of all ICT technical standards. Ensure support the use of renewable energy. ICT standardisation of measurement methods across companies can also use their own products to the whole life of products and services to demonstrate where dematerialisaion is possible. understand emissions from raw material As the internet becomes more integrated within extraction, through manufacturing, in use and developed and emerging economies, substitution from final disposal. of activities such as transport will become easier. Monitor Applying SMART to other sectors - Use ICT technologies to monitor energy the SMART framework consumption of ICT products and networks and Beyond its own operations and products, a major feed the information back into technology opportunity for both ICT businesses and their optimisation. Ensure that the monitoring is sectoral counterparts will be in capturing the consistent throughout companies. Monitoring ¤600 billion ($946.5 billion) of savings at stake devices and tools for power management should in optimising processes and systems in industry, be required as standard. Remote monitoring and power, transport and buildings to make them control of systems should be applied wherever more efficient. appropriate. The first stage in cutting emissions is monitoring what they are, wherever they occur Account and ICT is crucial to this process. Once emissions Make energy and emissions transparent all along levels and inefficiencies are identified, these data the supply chain by reporting and labelling. Use can be used to change operating models, this information to optimise products and services supporting systems and behaviour. These in each innovation cycle. Incorporate the cost of monitoring tools could be used to reduce energy carbon into current decision making processes to consumption and GHG emissions. future proof the cost of manufacturing and The most powerful opportunity operating new products and services, in (7.3 GtCO2e) for ICT to reduce emissions in other preparation for having an enforced cost of sectors is by providing data to enable efficiency carbon in the future. by optimising processes with a combination of behaviour change and automation. The key Rethink elements of a SMART innovation framework to The sector needs to continue to rethink and realise these opportunities – and to go further – research radical innovation across high- are developed below (Fig. 14). emission devices and services. The information above will enable the sector to optimise its own Standardise: Develop protocols to enable operations and product development for smart systems to interact energy reductions. Standards for calculating carbon emissions and
  • 55. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/55 “We need standards for networking in buildings similar to those created by the Internet Engineering Task Force standards – we want lights, HVAC, etc. to operate the same in all countries.” Bruce Nordman, LBNL 94 For example, in buildings, it is likely that energy consumption are called for in every policy place, applications would soon create new ways of this would initially be protocol translation, encapsulation and message broking. At a discussion on climate change and are critical to using buildings, travelling or manufacturing. later point a dominant protocol is likely to innovation and to bringing one-off solutions to Already, the ITU is proceeding to develop emerge if professional societies, building component manufactures, ICT providers and scale. However, the major efficiency opportunities standards to support scientific monitoring and energy utilities work together. identified in this report – services and cross-sector networking in automobiles, among others.95 95 See the climate change related standards platforms – require not only measurement but Like the IP suite of protocols, which on the ITU website http://www.itu.int/ themes/climate/ and their report http:// also messaging between devices. have grown over the lifetime of the internet, www.itu.int/ITU-D/cyb/app/e-env.html One of the reasons for the ICT sector’s layers of standards and protocols in the wider success is because it has developed layers of built environment would take some time to internationally standardised ways for machines develop. Concerns about the security implications to communicate with one another. International of every device having an IP address would need dialling codes, which have been around for more to be addressed. Reliability issues would also than a century, or the .com domain names are require more research. both obvious standards that allow rapid innovation and rollout of services. Protocols, Monitor: Make energy and carbon or the rules that allow machines to send messages emissions visible between each other, are hidden to the average Many companies do not know where energy is user but underpin the internet’s rapid being consumed, whether in the manufacture development. TCP/IP actually refers to a set or use of their products and services. Many of interconnected protocols that support email utilities in the developing world are blind to the and internet connectivity. XML, one of the consumption and loss of energy. Individual specifications that underpin blogging or social functions and departments rarely coordinate to networking applications, also allows the understand how to pool resources or reduce development of applications that manage energy efficiently. an organisation’s supply chains. There are steps that can be taken today A stack of interoperable protocols to reduce power across industry and buildings by allowing for the communications between better monitoring. Smart meters and remote devices, applications and the standardisation of measurement and monitoring allow the grid to see information exchange would allow more effective where the highest T&D losses exist or the greatest monitoring, control and minimisation of energy consumption is occurring. Already a number of use and carbon emissions. Applied to buildings, companies worldwide are rolling out smart industry, power and transport sectors, it would metering solutions to improve knowledge of enable communication between refrigerators and consumption and reduce electricity outages. smart electricity meters, thermostats and Homes and offices with smart meters are the first generation facilities, GIS systems and delivery step to a smart home and a smart grid. trucks, or motor systems and factory databases.94 In industry, short-term opportunities This would, for example, allow a user to turn off would rely on retrofitting existing motors the home air conditioning from the office, or systems with smarter control devices and optimise of route planning based on the real time requiring new motors to be fitted with VSDs. movement of vehicles. Wireless communication will facilitate the Once this SMART infrastructure is in exchange of data, placement of sensory systems
  • 56. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/56 and mobility of equipment, allowing for better There may be surprises – some e-commerce 96 Porter, Michael and Forest Reinhardt, Grist: A Strategic Approach to Climate monitoring of consumption. solutions that increase the number of trips taken Change, Harvard Business Review, October Monitoring goods and vehicles is the to deliver a single product may no longer be 2007. first step towards optimising logistics for viable. However, advanced videoconferencing reduction of mileage or the number of trips taken solutions may be in further demand to reduce to deliver goods. Commercial travel will benefit business travel where uncertainty in transport from RFID and data exchange standardisation, fuel prices or pressure to reduce emissions which will allow goods to be tracked across increases. borders and suppliers. Visibility of energy and A range of policies and business fuel consumed helps reduce cost, waste and practices would encourage accountability and emissions. accounting and will differ by region. In China, the government plans to audit the top 1,008 highest- Account: Link monitoring to accountability emitting companies, encouraging skills training or In this context, “account” has two facets – one subsidising technology transfer to enable energy is accountability for emissions and the other is efficiency improvements. In North America, accounting for them in business decisions. ESCOs that finance efficiency are becoming more First and foremost, ICT tools enable common and these companies will compete on transparency and accountability. Companies may their ability to account for energy accurately. be required to know where along their supply chains emissions are highest and report these to Rethink: Optimise for energy efficiency and their stakeholders. Consumers increasingly find alternatives to high carbon growth demand energy efficiency and even carbon Standards, monitoring and accounting (SMA) labelling for products. achieve operational awareness at the company Secondly, for individual companies, wor government level. knowing where they use energy or produce However, SMA is not the whole emissions and allocating a price of carbon to those picture. Using this information to optimise for emissions, can help them to better understand energy efficiency in value chains and maintain how climate change presents a risk in their profitability in spite of the rising costs of fuel – operations and value chain.96 For local or expected price for carbon – is a first step to governments, a similar challenge exists to SMART approaches to climate change. The next understand where in a local area or city energy step is to rethink operating and business models. consumption is highest. Awareness of how climate change will A number of sectors can respond shape demand is also crucial to innovating for the according to where energy is consumed. Energy low carbon economy. A society that delivers accounting and smarter billing would follow from growth using a fraction of the fossil fuels that smart meters. The monitoring, optimising and have driven both productivity and growth for the management of energy could be integrated last 300 years will look very different from the throughout industrial processes and logistics, low carbon society of tomorrow. It might even where there is currently no way of accounting for look better. For example, it would be appealing to the energy consumed in a good’s lifecycle. many to avoid idling in traffic on the morning commute and instead to work from home, enabled
  • 57. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/57 “When people are ready to change behaviour, that’s when ICT’s impact could be greatest.” Joseph Romm, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress 97 Mitchell Bill (2007), ‘Transforming by broadband and better collaboration Efficiencies can be achieved throughout a Workplaces’ in Kevin O’Donnell and technologies. neighbourhood or city, in a way that is not Wolfgang Wagener (eds.) ‘Connected Real Estate’, Torworth Publishing. It is the long-term potential of ICT to possible in a single building. More efficient completely transform existing operating systems inventory and distribution management systems and business models that will have the biggest could save 50% floor space in retail and impact on emissions reductions. What new warehouses, e-commerce could cut retail floor technologies, products and services will customers space and e-learning could reduce classroom and citizens demand that do not exist today? requirements by 50%. What new business models will be the most effective at delivering these? Strategic approaches “Far greater architectural and management to climate change will involve understanding not benefits can be realised by critically departing only how to do what we currently do more from [current building design] assumptions and efficiently, but how we can do things differently. exploiting the new design opportunities this The ICT sector will be in a position to enables than by simply networking traditionally enable new ways of learning, travelling, working programmed buildings and filling them with and living. electronic devices.” Professor of Architecture In this report, dematerialisation, and Media Arts and Sciences, MIT97 teleworking and videoconferencing made up a small percentage (500 MtCO2e) of a nearly Home automation technologies have the potential 8 GtCO2e opportunity that consists largely to bring many of the efficiencies found in larger of efficiency measures. However, new buildings into the home. It is already possible, dematerialisation services will be crucial if not much practised, to monitor smart devices complements to efficiency in the transition throughout the home. As homes become to a low carbon society. increasingly networked, owners will be able to For example, if buildings are viewed control heating or lighting remotely and utilities holistically as part of the living/working built will use the data to make better predictions about environment, a comprehensive approach peak load. encompassing the design, recommissioning and Smart grids and their capacity for use phases could integrate efficiency and delivering decentralised energy have the potential dematerialisation. Optimising space, heat, cooling to radically change the way electricity is and light and other requirements at the design generated and delivered, in India and throughout phase reduces the materials needed for initial the world. Smart grids could allow renewable build as well as reducing the energy consumption energy to be fed into the grid, decarbonising later, where most of buildings emissions are supply. They can allow local renewable energy concentrated. A smarter BMS can “learn” or generators to cover localised surges in demand self-adapt based on the behaviour of the and contribute to a more diversified energy mix, occupants, recognising inefficiencies and thereby improving energy security. adjusting systems such as HVAC accordingly. Similarly, machine-to-machine Complementing this change with teleworking communication in factories could transform the could avoid demand for new office floor space and way that products are ordered, manufactured and lead to further emissions reductions. delivered. Intelligent systems control would allow
  • 58. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/58 Fig. 14 SMART 2020: Next steps Transform Rethink ICT direct action Standardise, •Systematically follow best Monitor & ICT direct action practice for rollout of new products Account •Continue to rethink and •Transform the ICT sector to research radical innovation an exemplar of low carbon ICT direct action across high emission devices technology •Ensure standards for energy and services •Source green power wherever measurement are included in •Rethink and implement radical possible all technical standards architectural innovations (e.g. •ICT companies can also use •Monitor energy consistently virtualisation across all IT their own products to across companies assets) to significantly reduce demonstrate where •Account for energy in the ICT’s emissions even further dematerialisation is possible supply chain ICT enabling action ICT enabling action ICT enabling action •Optimise systems and •Practice open innovation to •Extend existing ICT protocols processes for energy efficiency accelerate low carbon solutions into other sectors (e.g. •Extend existing ICT capabilities •Integrate climate change into implementing TCP/IP into into other sectors, company innovation strategy even small devices such as (e.g. monitoring, sensing or •Carry out pilot projects to test lighting or appliances) services) business case •Provide products and services •Continue to develop affordable •Partner with other sectors to support the collection remote collaboration and to implement smart and and analysis of energy communication tools integrated approaches – consumption from device •Develop new methods or platforms – for energy creation through to its end for substituting high carbon management of systems use and disposal with low carbon activities and processes Policy Action Policy Action Policy Action •Encourage standards bodies •Set stretching objectives for • Develop a coordinated policy to include energy in technical energy efficiency and/or framework for scaling up standards from the beginning targets for emissions efficiency solutions and low of their development reductions where carbon alternatives •Require consistent demonstrably effective • Initiate public–private measurement of energy alternatives to high carbon partnerships and emissions activities exist • Establish fiscal incentives •Require interoperable •Require sufficient connectivity for every efficiency open standards for device to deliver solutions communication • RFID and data exchange
  • 59. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/59 “You need to sell the idea of smart grids, to demonstrate their effectiveness – only pilot projects will work.” K. Ramanathan, Distinguished Fellow, Teri for self-diagnosis and reporting on machine Chapter 3 detailed the hurdles to be overcome. performance. Standard operating platforms for Lack of information, lack of supportive robotics could facilitate software reusability and organisational structures, lack of clear market interoperability, enabling the wider use of opportunities and lack of targeted policy were efficiency applications and eventually allowing identified as barriers to implementation and scale. for self-optimisation at the factory level. The In all cases, a lack of standardised ways of industrial process could even connect back more measuring and reporting energy use makes it directly with consumers so that they understand difficult to coordinate economy-wide solutions. more clearly the impact of their choices on the Among the most challenging hurdles are the manufacturing process. fragmentation in logistics and power generation The opportunity for efficient logistics markets, lack of training and skills to manage is spread over many activities, with small gains in complex BMS or a smart grid and lack of each. The overall effect is larger than single technology transfer and financing mechanisms opportunities like efficient motors, but takes a for implementing energy efficiency measures much more coordinated approach. The major across power and other industry sectors. These gains will be reductions in the number of empty and other hurdles identified will be overcome vehicles on return journeys, better overall only by a combination of company leadership, network management and minimised travel and disruptive innovation, government policies and packaging throughout. Open transport behaviour change. management systems will allow for traffic and There is much debate about how to road configuration information to be passed to spur innovation and overcome hurdles to social route planning platforms, resulting in mileage and technological low carbon transition. reductions. Open freight exchange platforms Experiments, pilots and demonstrations are a will allow for vehicle loads to be optimised thus necessary part of the innovation process. reducing the number of empty vehicle miles This currently happens as a matter of course in travelled. Integrated supplier gateways will allow “clusters” such as Silicon Valley where venture companies to share haulage and, closer to 2020, capital investment allows start-ups to compete the full automation of highway systems would to provide solutions. In California, Silver Spring greatly improve the efficiency of traffic flow. Networks is moving beyond providing smart meters to pioneering the underpinning Transform: Implement smart, low carbon networking technology of a smart grid. infrastructure at scale But start-ups alone may not be able Scaling up low carbon ICT solutions described to deliver solutions at scale. Large companies above is essential. Reducing T&D losses on the have a crucial role to play in finding the small Indian grid by 30% will need to involve not one companies that are innovating and pulling their utility, but many across the country. Putting BMSs ideas into scalable products and services. Open in 40% of new buildings in North America is innovation98 is the process by which companies possible, but not inevitable. Reducing flight time draw on distributed knowledge networks, by even by 3% – if applied over 80% of flights – adds developing new models of IP-sharing and up to energy savings that aren’t possible if business model prototyping. Open innovation implemented by just one company. business practices by companies that build
  • 60. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/60 98 climate change mitigation into their business For each sector, the opportunities Chesborough, H (2003), Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and strategy will be necessary to achieve the will be captured by means of partnership and Profiting from Technology, Harvard development of SMART infrastructure quickly providing services to all sectors. Market incentives Business Press. 99 and at scale. are needed to accelerate the implementation and Bernice Lee, Chatham House, Energy & Climate Change Programme. Every city can be the cluster for uptake of micro or renewable energy generation. SMART solutions, because it is where the homes, Germany and Spain have successfully grids, industry and transport solutions intersect. implemented feed-in tariffs that encourage Cities are home to over 50% of the world’s renewables, for example. Public-private population and are responsible for 75% of global partnerships may also play a role. emissions. Mass urbanisation seems set to Policies need to be performance-based rather continue. Developing the blueprints for than technology-specific, in order to ensure sustainable urban infrastructures will be targets are met with innovative approaches. fundamental to whether we will be able to Different policies suit each market and context. significantly reduce our emissions to a safe level. For example, smart grids in India are needed to Policy support is needed for innovation prevent theft and losses, whereas in California to occur at scale. Encouraging experimentation, they will be more crucial in facilitating efficient as some national governments have done in the use of energy by consumers. name of competitiveness, may accelerate the transformation. Countries such as South Korea Policy action to achieve the SMART ICT have already identified the presence of high- opportunity will include (Fig. 14): speed internet and mobile – along with other IT services – as essential to economic development Standardise: Encourage standards bodies to and government/industry partnerships aim to include considerations for energy consumption in bring ubiquitous connectivity to the country. technical standards from the beginning of their China’s circular economy approach which development. Ensure that privacy and reliability recognises the strategic role of resource issues that arise as data collection increases are productivity is being developed into law, chiefly addressed. because environmental pollution is recognised as constraining economic growth. China is also Monitor: Require consistent measurement of investing in low carbon innovation zones99 – carbon emissions across sectors. like the free economic zones that drove economic development – to ensure China’s Account: Accountability to the public will be global competitiveness in low carbon solutions. expected first from government and from the The Dutch approach is transition management businesses it regulates. National to municipal which takes a long-term, systems approach to governments can demonstrate what is possible by societal change. In this model, micro-level reporting all activities and then require businesses solutions can take off at the macro-level when to do the same . technology, behaviour, policy and institutions are jointly engaged in learning about a specific Rethink: Set stretching objectives for energy societal transition. ICT could accelerate that efficiency and/or targets for emissions reductions process. where demonstrably effective alternatives to high
  • 61. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The SMART 2020 transformation economy in the information age 04/61 The ICT industry, in partnership with other emitting sectors, has a key role to play in helping make society’s impact visible and to demonstrate in aggregate the demand for new ways of reducing that impact. carbon activities exist. Fund research into new emissions around the world. The efficiencies technologies and business models and fund pilot identified in this report could simply lead to the projects in local contexts. Ensure the most energy consumption of more high carbon products. This efficient connectivity is supported. is not an option, which is why absolute caps in international emissions are important. Better Transform: Establish fiscal incentives to promote information in real time on the optimal places the mass scale-up of transformational ICT to introduce caps or targets would help ease the technologies. Develop coordination mechanisms transition for all sectors as they seek to cut their to ensure consistency in reporting of energy use emissions dramatically. or emissions across policy areas that cover The ICT industry, in partnership with communications, energy and transport, other emitting sectors, has a key role to play in environmental performance, climate change, helping make society’s impact visible and to waste, buildings, skills and innovation. Where demonstrate in aggregate the demand for new technology is required in the built environment, ways of reducing that impact. We begin to require interoperable open standards between transform our infrastructure only if we can see devices in homes, cars/trucks, public transport, easily where the leakage occurs and are able to offices, on the power grid and in factories. use this feedback to change business and Set an example by procuring of low carbon operating models, our systems and our own products/services. behaviour. The same tools could be used across all GHG emissions, not only carbon, to come closer Ultimately, the learning and experimentation on to zero waste and zero emissions targets. drafting policies and testing technologies would ICT can enable the transition to a low need to be fed back into standards processes and carbon economy and also begin to build the allow further new substitutes to be developed and infrastructure, services and products that a low implemented at scale. carbon society will demand. The complexity of the solutions Now is the time for the industry and requires companies to partner as well as compete, government to act. governments to develop innovation-led approaches for new types of development and, above all, financial institutions to redirect investment towards new solutions. The challenge cannot be underestimated, but there is little choice but to meet it, as the consequences of not doing so will be much tougher to bear. Concluding remarks Since Thomas Newcomen invented the steam engine in 1712, society has steamed ahead with an industrial revolution delivering both efficiency and productivity, but has also witnessed a rapid increase in energy consumption and carbon
  • 63. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Scope, process and methodology economy in the information age Appendix 1/63 Appendix 1: Scope, process and methodology Scope and methodology models were developed, one to understand the The study set out to understand the role of direct footprint and the other to identify and the ICT sector in the transition to a low carbon quantify indirect or enabling opportunities. economy, both by reducing its own footprint To ensure accuracy and credibility of the and by enabling emissions reductions across approach, the methodology and content were the economy. shared with experts and stakeholders globally. The second phase involved in-depth The analysis therefore set out to answer three key case studies around five areas where the analysis questions, all measured in CO2e: suggested the greatest emissions reductions opportunities were possible using ICT solutions. 1. What is the impact of the products and services In four of those cases, value opportunities were of the ICT sector? also developed. 2. What is the potential impact if ICT were applied The third phase involved an assessment to reduce emissions in other sectors such as of the imperatives for each stakeholder transport or power? (technology providers, technology users, 3. What are the market opportunities for the ICT investors and regulators) to accelerate adoption of industry and other high-tech sectors in the illustrated case studies. Workshops were held enabling the low carbon economy? with global experts and stakeholders to discuss potential opportunities and barriers. The outcome For the purposes of this report, the ICT sector of this communication was a clearer covers: understanding of the imperatives for industry and policy emerging from the case studies. • PCs and peripherals: workstations; laptops; desktops and; peripherals such as monitors Direct ICT impact methodology and printers To assess the direct impact of ICT on the global • IT services: data centres and their component carbon footprint, the contribution of each servers; storage and cooling component within scope was analysed. Each of • Telecoms networks and devices: network the drivers for emission growth was then assessed infrastructure components; mobile phones; on a by-product basis. chargers; broadband routers and IPTV boxes. The research utilised the latest estimates of the current global emissions of the It does not include consumer electronics such as sector components, penetration rates of ICT TVs, video equipment, gaming, audio devices and devices and infrastructure, and estimates of global media players or other electronic equipment such population and sectoral growth to 2020. Data as medical imaging devices. were gathered from: relevant publicly available This study was carried out in three key studies; academic and industry literature; stages over a period of six months, from October expertise provided by the partners; and primary 2007 to March 2008. research as appropriate, including consumer The first phase of the project aimed to surveys, and expert interviews. quantify the direct and indirect global impact of The analysis aimed to be as ICT on GHG emissions until 2020. Two basic comprehensive as possible, using the ‘cradle-to-
  • 64. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Scope, process and methodology economy in the information age Appendix 1/64 100 grave’ approach to carbon emissions, and as such, McKinsey analysed the significance and cost of Gartner estimates; McKinsey trend extrapolation; McManus, T (2002), ‘Moore’s incorporating emissions data from manufacture, each available method of reducing or ‘abating’ Law and PC Power’, presentation toTulane transport, use and disposal wherever possible. emissions relative to BAU projections. The study Engineering Forum, www.sse.tulane.edu/ Tef/Slides/Tulane-Moore’s%20Law%20 covered a number of areas where emissions are Sept02.ppt, IDC data The direct model was calculated based on four significant: power; manufacturing; industry; 101 IVF Industrial Research and main components: transport; residential and commercial buildings; Development Corp (2007), Preparatory Studies for Eco-Design Requirements of forestry; agriculture; and waste disposal. It also Energy-using Products (EuP): Lot 3 – PCs • Market growth and penetration of devices covered six regions: North America; Western (desktops and laptops) Final Report. 102 to 2020 based on industry reports100 and Europe; Eastern Europe including Russia; other Enkvist P., T. Naucler T. and J. Rosander (2007), ‘A Cost Curve for Greenhouse McKinsey analysis. In each section of the direct developed countries; and China and other Gas Reduction’, The McKinsey Quarterly, footprint in this report, the components are developing nations (including India), over time Number 1. identified along with assumptions of growth. periods to 2010, 2020 and 2030. For the purposes Growth in India and China was of particular of this report, a time horizon of 2020 was used. relevance The enabling model set out to • Energy consumption of the components understand how ICT applications could play a role based on publicly available or company data in each of the emissions abatement solutions in • Emissions factor. To calculate the emissions the cost curve. Of the 21.9 GtCO2e of abatement from the energy consumption, an emissions available by 2020, 7.8 GtCO2e will involve a major factor was used based on McKinsey and role for ICT. It will also have a minor involvement Vattenfall’s cost curve work. The conversion with other further abatements, although not all from energy consumption to carbon is based on solutions could be included in the report. the carbon intensity of electricity generation in In order to inform the model and to each region on a pa basis and includes total better quantify the role of ICT in the opportunities carbon emissions generated at source. identified through the cost curve work, four Transmission losses were also calculated for each opportunities were analysed in detail, chosen region. Transmission figures for conversion because of the size of their abatement potential, differed in each region and year the scale of the economic opportunity and the • Embodied carbon. The calculation of CO2e as quality of data available: part of the manufacturing process of the components is calculated based on publicly • Logistics in Europe (including urban and available data101 or company data. Energy non-urban road transport, passenger and freight consumed for end-of-life treatment (disposal, transport across all vehicle modes – road, air landfill and recycling) was included in the and sea) embodied energy estimates of ICT devices • Industry in China (including motor systems, where data was available, as outlined in detail in process industries) Appendix 2. • Power in India (including generation, T&D, supply mix and demand sources) The ICT industry is dynamic, fast-growing and • Buildings in North America (including subject to the emergence of disruptive residential, office, warehouses, other technologies and paradigm shifts. It is difficult to commercial). predict the changes that are likely to take place within the industry over the period 2008-2020. In addition to these four case studies based on For this reason, a number of assumptions have cost curve analysis, dematerialisation was chosen been made in this report when analysing the as fifth study item. Research involved extensive direct footprint of the ICT sector, which are primary research, including expert and company detailed in Appendix 2. interviews, regional interviews and site visits, as well as extensive literature reviews. Enabling impact methodology The enabling model drew on McKinsey’s previous work with Vattenfall on GHG reduction cost curve.102 The cost curve set out to identify on a global scale the supply of emissions abatement solutions and rank them by cost to society.
  • 65. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The direct impact assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 2/65 Appendix 2: The direct impact assumptions Drivers Market growth Constituting Power Embodied carbon Abatements (as and penetration of elements consumption discussed in detail devices to 2020 in report itself) PCs • Gartner on installed • Desktops v laptops • Historic growth of • Figures assessed •Device change. base up to 2011 • Commercial v power consumption based on European • Extrapolated growth consumer per PC unit including Commission DG TREN: trends • CRT v LCD for PCs monitors EuP preparatory study, • Capped at 2020 US (CRT assumed to • Assume effect of TREN/D1/40-2005, penetration per capita decrease to 0% in efficiency gains and Lot 3. • Assumed 20% 2020). increased computation of desktops are requirements workstations. • Workstations consume 2.5 times desktop in all modes • Commercial usage: 14 hours/day • Consumer usage: three hours/day • Desktop standby achieves 15W Energy Star rating. Telecoms • Yankee user • Mobile penetration • Mobile phones • Integrated product • Converge to 1W connections for capped for 2020 to • Charging phone policy pilot project standby before 2020 devices broadband and mobile 0.92 (US penetration) 0.5 kWh Stage 1 Final • Reduce W in recharge up to 2011, historic • Mobile devices, IPTV • Standby charging Report: “Life Cycle over the same duration. trends up to 2020 boxes, routers. 13 kWh Environmental Issues • IDC penetration on • Constant in time IPTV of Mobile Phones”, IPTV up to 2010, • IPTV rating: 25W. Nokia, 2005 constant growth after Active 40% of rated • Assume router: 1/3 of that. standby 20% of rated laptop three hours of active • IPTV: 1/2 of laptop. TV usage, rest of the time in standby • Routers: from European code of conduct. Five active hours, rest of the time in standby. Telecoms • Yankee user connection • Fixed-line • “Mobile Embodied • Embodied carbon stays for fixed, mobile, • Mobile Carbon from constant as percentage networks broadband up to 2011, • Broadband Sustainable Energy of network energy historic growth up to • Cable operators Use in Mobile consumption over time. 2020. (broadband only) Communications”, • Satellite not included Ericsson, August 2007, • Specific fixed network White Paper. configurations such as NGN were not accounted for separately. Data centres • For each server type • Three kinds of servers; • Three types of servers: • Assumed 4% of • Virtualisation and IDC data up to 2011 for and data storage units. 200, 500, 6000 W/unit total data centre life cooling. sales. Projected global • Projected growth in cycle analysis (LCA) 2002 installed base consumption and on footprint: “Life Cycle according to sales historic numbers Assessment for an • Use sales and • Applied US storage Internet Data Centre”, retirements to grow up consumption per server NEC. to 2011 worldwide • Straight line projection. • Doubled power consumption of servers to assess cooling and power equipment.
  • 66. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/66 Appendix 3: The enabling effect assumptions Assumptions behind the CO2e calculations for the enabling effect are detailed below for the top five areas. Dematerialisation: Global impact 0.46 GtCO2e in 2020 – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig. 9, Chapter 3 Lever GtCO2e Assumptions Online media 0.02 • Assumes seven billion DVDs and 10 billion CDs globally sold per year • 1 Kg CO2e per CD/DVD* • Eliminate all CDs and DVDs E-commerce 0.03 • 3% reduction in emissions from shopping transport, assumed to be 40% of non-work- related private transport, or 20% of all private transport E-paper 0.07 • Assumes 270Mt of paper in 2020 globally • tCO2e per tonne of paper • Eliminate 25% of all paper Videoconferencing 0.08 • 30% of passenger air and rail travel is business travel • Globally 30% of business travel can be avoided through videoconferencing Telecommuting 0.26 • Assumes that work-related car travel in urban and non-urban areas decreases by 80%, while non-work-related car travel increases by 20% • In developed countries 10% of existing vehicles are affected, equivalent to 20% of people and 30-40% of working population, and 7% in developing countries • Assumes a 15% increase in residential building emissions and a 60% reduction in office emissions, applied to 10% of residential buildings and 80% of office buildings
  • 67. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/67 SMART motors: Global impact 0.97 GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig 10.1, Chapter 3 Lever GtCO2e Assumptions Optimisation of variable 0.68 • 30% increase in efficiency of industrial motor speed motor systems systems through optimisation • 60% penetration of motor system optimisation technology ICT driven automation in 0.29 • 15% decrease in total electricity consumption key industrial processes • 33% penetration of process optimisation technology SMART logistics: Global impact 1.52 GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig. 11.1, Chapter 3 Lever GtC02e Assumptions Optimisation of logistics 0.340 • 14% reduction in road transport network • 1% reduction in other modes of transport Intermodal shift 0.020 •1% reduction in road transport owing to shift towards rail and waterborne transport Reduction in inventory 0.180 •24% reduction in inventory levels •100% of warehouses and 25% of retail are assumed to be used for storage Centralised distribution No data available centres Optimisation of truck 0.330 • 14% reduction in road transport itinerary planning Optimisation of truck 0.100 • 5% reduction in carbon intensity of road route planning transport owing to avoidance of congestion Eco-driving 0.250 •12% reduction in carbon intensity owing to improved driving style Intelligent traffic No data available management In-flight fuel efficiency, 0.002 •1% reduction in fuel consumption achievable for e.g. centre of gravity 80% of t/km flown •Impact calculated for average European fleet
  • 68. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/68 Lever GtC02e Assumptions Reduction in ground 0.002 • 32% reduction in ground fuel consumption fuel consumption achievable for 80% of flights •Impact calculated for average European fleet Reduction in 0.007 • 3% reduction in flight time achievable for 80% unnecessary flight time of flights Optimisation of train 0 •2.5% reduction in rail transport owing to better operations scheduling and operations of trains Maximisation of ship 0.030 • 4% reduction in marine transport owing to load factor improved utilisation of ships Optimisation of ship 0.020 • 3% increase in fuel efficiency, e.g. by adjusting operations ballasts and optimising speed Minimisation of 0.220 • 5% reduction in packaging material, leading to a packaging 5% reduction in all transports and in storage Recycling and No data available remanufacturing Reduction of damaged 0.010 •0.2% reduction in damaged goods achievable goods through better tracking (e.g. RFID) and conditions monitoring (e.g. bio-sensors) Flexible home delivery 0 • 0.1% reduction in consumer travel to collect methods failed deliveries
  • 69. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/69 SMART buildings: Global impact 1.68GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig 12.1, Chapter 3 Lever GtCO2e Assumptions Improved building 0.45 • 40% reduction in retail buildings and 30% in others design for energy • Implementation: 60% of all new builds and 15% of efficiency retrofits (except 0% for residential) Reduced building 0.11 • 25% reduction in retail and warehouse space space through design • Implementation: 60% of new buildings and 20% of retrofits BMS 0.39 • 12% less in residential and retail buildings, 7% in warehouse and 36% in office and other emissions • Implementation: 40% of new offices and retail and 25% retrofits; 33% of all other new and 10% of retrofits HVAC automation 0.13 • 13% reduction in HVAC consumption (except warehouses) • Implementation: 40% for new retail and offices; 33% for remaining new; 25% for all retrofits Lighting automation 0.12 • 16% reduction in lighting • Implementation: 40% for new retail and offices; 33% for remaining new; 50% for commercial retrofits and 25% for residential retrofits Ventilation on demand 0.02 • 4% reduction in heating/cooling emissions in commercial buildings except warehouses • Implementation: 60% of new builds and 25% of retrofits Intelligent 0.06 • 15% reduction in commercial building (except commissioning warehouses) heating/cooling emissions • Implementation: 60% of new builds Benchmarking and 0.15 • 35% reduction in current commercial building building (except warehouses) heating/cooling emissions recommissioning • Implementation: 25% of new builds and 50% of retrofits Voltage optimisation 0.24 • 10% reduction in heating/cooling and appliance consumption • Implementation: 80% of new builds, 30% of commercial retrofits and 20% of residential retrofits
  • 70. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/70 SMART grids: Global impact 2.03 GtCO2e – Assumptions behind the numbers in Fig 13.1. Chapter 3 Lever GtCO2e Assumptions Reduce T&D losses 0.90 • 30% reduction (14% to 10%) of T&D losses for developed countries and 38% (24% to 15%) reduction for developing countries Demand management 0.02 • 3% (10 days a year) reduction in spinning reserve Reduce consumption 0.28 • 5% reduction in energy consumption through user • Effective in 75% of residential new builds and information 50% of residential retrofits • Effective in 60% of commercial new builds and 50% of commercial retrofits Integration of 0.83 • 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of renewables generation of developed countries • 5% reduction in the carbon intensity of generation of developing countries Intelligent load No data available dispatch
  • 71. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/71 Global value of the opportunity for smart motors, smart logistics, smart buildings and smart grids was developed using the detailed information available for each case study and scaled according to the assumptions outlined in each value tree: SMART motors Industrial automation could save up to ¤68 billion pa worldwide ($107.2 billion) Worldwide impact, 2020 Key drivers of business model Motor system electricity used TWh 5,430 Impact of 2 levers* Motor system • Optimisation of electricity savings industrial motor TWh 1,200 Motor system systems (11% impact) Electricity savings electricity savings • Automation of key 22% ¤47.9 billion industrial processes Cost of electricity (5% impact) ¤/kWh 0.04 Other electricity Electricity savings used ¤53.7 billion TWh 2,900 Other electricity savings TWh 145 Other electricity Impact of 1 levers* Electricity savings savings • Automation of key 5% ¤5.8 billion industrial processes Cost of electricity ¤/kWh 0.04 Value at stake Motor system ¤68 billion electricity savings Tons of carbon TWh 1,200 avoided MtCO2 660 Carbon savings for Carbon intensity motor system of electricity electricity ¤13.2 billion tC02/MWh 0.55 Cost of carbon Carbon savings ¤/tonne 20 ¤14.7 billion Other electricity savings Tonnes of carbon TWh 2,900 avoided 80 MtCO2 Carbon savings for Carbon intensity other electricity of primary fuel ¤1.6 billion tCO2/MWh 0.16 Cost of carbon ¤/tonne 20 * Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews.
  • 72. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/72 SMART logistics: Efficient logistics could save up to ¤280 billion pa worldwide ($441.6 billion) Worldwide impact, 2020 Key drivers of business model Impact of 16 levers,* Fuel used in logistics of which the most 1,655 billion litres significant are: Fuel savings • Optimisation of 454 billion litres logistics networks • Optimisation of truck Transport savings Fuel savings collection and ¤227 billion 27% delivery itinerary Cost of fuel Electricity usage • Eco-driving ¤/litre 0.5** TWh 438 Electricity savings TWh 321 Storage electricity Electricity savings savings 27% ¤12.8 billion Cost of electricity ¤/kWh 0.04 Heating energy usage Impact of 3 levers* Value at stake Storage savings TWh 375 • Reduction of inventory ¤280 billion ¤24 billion Heating energy • Minimisation of packaging savings TWh 274 • Reduction of damaged goods Storage heating Heating energy energy savings savings 27% ¤11.2 billion Cost of heating energy ¤/kWh 0.04 Fuel savings 454 billion litres Tonnes of carbon avoided 1.21 GtCO2 Carbon savings Carbon intensity for transport KgCO2/2.68 litre ¤24.3 billion Cost of carbon Electricity savings ¤/20 tonne TWh 321 Carbon saved from Carbon savings electricity savings ¤29 billion Carbon intensity 0.18 GtC02 Tonnes of carbon of electricity avoided tC02/MWh 0.55 Carbon savings 0.22 GtCO2 for storage Heating energy ¤4.4 billion savings TWh 274 Carbon saved from Cost of carbon heating energy ¤/20 tonne savings 0.04 GtC02 Carbon intensity of primary fuel tC02/TWh 0.16 * Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews ** Average spot trading price of gasoline excluding tax, IEA data, December 2007.
  • 73. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/73 SMART buildings: The global value at stake from building efficiency is estimated at ¤216 billion ($340.7 billion) Worldwide impact, 2020 Key drivers of business model Electricity used TWh 12,000 Electricity savings TWh 1,800 Electricity savings Electricity savings 15% ¤72 billion Cost of electricity ¤/kWh 0.04 Impact of multiple levers,* of which the most significant are Primary energy • Improved building design source used (4% impact) Primary energy TWh 19,000 •BMS (4% impact) source saved •Benchmarking and building TWh 2,850 Primary energy Primary energy recommissioning (1.5% impact) Value at stake source savings ¤216 billion source savings 15% ¤115 billion Cost of electricity Electricity savings ¤/kWh 0.04 TWh 1,800 Tonnes of carbon avoided Carbon savings 990 MtCO2 Carbon intensity of for electricity electricity ¤20 billion Cost of carbon tCO2/MWh 0.55 ¤/20 tonne Carbon savings ¤29 billion Primary energy source savings Tonnes of carbon TWh 2,850 avoided Carbon savings Carbon intensity of MtCO2 445 for primary primary fuel energy source Cost of carbon tCO2/MWh 0.16 ¤9 billion ¤/20 tonne * Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews
  • 74. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon The enabling effect assumptions economy in the information age Appendix 3/74 SMART grids: The global value at stake from smart grid is estimated at ¤79 billion ($124.6 billion) Global Impact, 2020 Key drivers of business model T&D losses TWh 4,400** Electricity savings TWh 1,540 Electricity savings Reduction in T&D ¤61 billion losses 35% Cost of electricity ¤/kWh 0.04 Value at stake Electricity savings ¤79 billion TWh 1,540 Tonnes of carbon avoided 900 MtCO2 Carbon savings Carbon intensity ¤18 billion of electricity MtCO2/MWh 0.55 Cost of carbon ¤/20 tonne Estimate does not include benefits of smart grids beyond reduction of T&D losses such as: • DSM • Integration of renewables • Improved asset management * Impact of individual levers determined through expert interviews ** Based on 18% average losses worldwide and 25,000 TWh produced.
  • 75. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Company commitments economy in the information age Appendix 4/75 Appendix 4: Company commitments Companies Public commitments Alcatel–Lucent • Reach a 10% reduction in total CO2 emissions from facilities from the 2007 CSR reported baseline by the end of 2010 • Determine and report Alcatel–Lucent’s direct carbon footprint by the end of 2008 Bell Canada • Reduce intensity of GHG emissions by 15%, by 2012 British Tele- • Reduce the worldwide CO2 emissions per unit of BT’s contribution to GDP by 80% from 1996 levels, communications by 2020 plc • Reduce UK CO2 emissions in absolute terms by 80% below 1996 levels, by December 2016 • 20% of BTs employees will be actively engaged in reducing carbon footprint at work and at home by December 2012 • 25% of BT’s UK electricity to be sourced from on-site wind power by 2016 Cisco Systems • Complete verified, annual EPA Climate Leaders and CDP global GHG inventories • As part of EPA Climate Leaders, develop a global, corporate GHG emissions goal to be implemented over a five to 10 year horizon. Cisco’s goal will be posted under partner goals on the EPA Climate Leaders Partnership website •As part of Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) commitment, invest at least $20 million in remote collaboration technology to reduce carbon emissions from air travel by 10% (2006 baseline) • As part of CGI commitment, invest $15 million in the Connected Urban Development initiative to create replicable templates for sustainable urban infrastructure development considering urban planning, built environment, transport and energy solutions to reduce carbon emissions from cities Dell • Reduce operational carbon intensity by an additional 15% by 2012 • Starting with FY08, achieve net carbon neutrality for all Dell-owned and -leased manufacturing and facilities operations worldwide, including business air travel • Double our average facilities LEED score by 2012 • Strive for 100% use of renewable power in Dell operations • Educate and empower customers to conserve energy and offset carbon related to operation of IT products • Set expectations for all primary suppliers to manage, reduce and publicly disclose GHG impacts Deutsche • 100% of German electricity demand obtained from renewable sources (water/wind/biomass) Telekom AG as from 2008 • Reduce CO2 emissions for Deutsche Telekom Group by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 • Achieve the target of eight million private customers using online billing by the end of 2008 (started to promote the use of online billing in 2006) • Conduct – a complete review of Deutsche Telekom’s energy supply including exploring further potential of all sources of renewable energies, including fuel cells and natural heat of the earth (geothermic) – a complete audit of the energy consumption of Deutsche Telekom´s data centres
  • 76. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Company commitments economy in the information age Appendix 4/76 Companies Public commitments Deutsche • Further investigate and assess Telekom AG – the use of high efficiency geothermal heat exchangers for cooling and heating – the use of block-type thermal power stations – the optimisation of data centres and switching stations through cooling water • Investigate, assess and ensure the reduction of car fleet emissions by – increasing the number of cars powered by alternative engines (i.e. hybrid etc.) – using alternative fuels in the vehicle fleet Ericsson • Complete full peer-reviewed LCA study on mobile communications in accordance with ISO 14040 standards • 20% energy efficiency improvement targeted from 2006 to end 2008 for WCDMA RBS • 15% improvement in energy efficiency of GSM RBS products sold from beginning 2006 to end 2008 • Introduce power-saving standby feature for GSM RBS during low load • Have intermediate, publishable results from two or three ongoing projects for LCA, video communications and mobile applications France Telecom • Reduce CO² emissions for FT Group by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 • Involve 100% of FT Group employees in reducing the company’s footprint • Reduce energy consumption for FT Group by 15% below 2006 level to 2020 • 25% of FT Group electricity in Africa (EMEA) to be sourced from solar by 2015 Hewlett-Packard • Reduce energy consumption and the resulting GHG emissions from HP-owned and leased facilities worldwide 16% below 2005 levels, by 2010 • Reduce the combined energy consumption and associated GHG emissions of HP operations and products to 25% below 2005 levels, by 2010 • Reduce the energy consumption of volume desktop and notebook PC families by 25% by 2010 relative to 2005 • Improve the overall energy efficiency of HP ink and laser printing products by 40% by 2011 • Quadruple the number of high-end video conferencing units at company sites worldwide by 2009, resulting in an expected reduction of more than 20,000 trips • Report energy use and associated GHG emissions in HP’s first-tier suppliers, representing more than 70% of the company’s materials, components and manufacturing supplier spend Intel • Reduce absolute carbon footprint by 20% by 2012 against the 2007 baseline • Reduce use of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) by 10% by 2010 against the 1995 baseline • Reduce normalised energy use in operations by 4% pa by 2010 against 2002 baseline, increasing to 5% pa by 2012 against the 2007 baseline • Reduce IT-related CO2 emissions by 50% by 2010 by ensuring commitments to produce, sell, buy and use the most energy efficient IT equipment, via the Climate Savers Computing Initiative • Starting in 2008, purchase 1.3 billion kWh a year of renewable energy certificates Microsoft • All new owned buildings will be constructed to LEED Silver or Gold performance levels • Increase multiple occupancy and alternative transport rate for Puget Sound, Washington employees from 32% to 40% by 2015 • 100% of data centres will feature real time tracking of CO2 emissions • Every two years through 2012, halve the measure between annual average data centre PUE and the ideal PUE (1.0) by increasing Microsoft data centre productivity
  • 77. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Company commitments economy in the information age Appendix 4/77 Companies Public commitments Motorola • Reduce operational CO2 emissions (includes direct GHG emissions and indirect emissions from electricity use) by 15% compared with 2005 • In keeping with the company’s commitment as a founding member of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), reduce global absolute CO2 emissions by 6% by 2010 compared with 2000 • Assess supply chain climate impacts • Measure the impact of business travel • Understand the carbon footprint through the life cycle of Motorola products •Continuously improve the energy efficiency of Motorola products Nokia • Products: – Reduce the average no-load power consumption by another 50% by the end of 2010 – Roll out reminders for consumers to unplug the charger from the electricity outlet once the phone has been fully charged across its product range by the end of 2008 • Offices and sites: – Further energy savings 2007-2012 of 6% compared to 2006 levels • Green energy: – Increase the use of green electricity to 50% in 2010 • Operations: – Set energy efficiency and CO2 reduction targets for global suppliers of printed wiring boards, integrated circuits, LCD’s and chargers that are in line with Nokia internal target setting • Require target setting for the reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from its logistics service providers Nokia Siemens Products energy consumption targets: Networks • Reduce the energy consumption of typical GSM (2G) RBS by 20% by 2010 from the 2007 level of 800W • Reduce the energy consumption of typical WCDMA (3G) RBS by 40% by 2010 from end-2007 level of 500W • Reduce the energy consumption by 29% per ADSL line by 2009 from the 2007 level to meet the Broadband Code of Conduct. With ADSL low power mode, additional 30% savings are possible • Reduce the energy consumption by 49% per VDSL line by 2009 from the 2007 level and target to meet the Broadband Code of Conduct • Continue deployment and further development of energy-saving features during low traffic periods Nokia Siemens Production and office facilities energy use targets: Networks • Reduce energy use by 6% by 2012, exceeding the official EU target of 5% • Use 25% renewable energy in company operations by 2009, increasing up to 50% by the end of 2010 Sun • Reduce US CO2e emissions 20% from 2002 levels by 2012 Microsystems • Maintain over 50% of employees in a flexible work programme, which includes partial and full time work from home • Publish energy consumption data for all products • Drive increased energy efficiency in microprocessors, systems and storage through Sun’s Eco Innovation programme • Provide tools for data centre customers to monitor ongoing power consumption of Sun products • Exceed industry targets for energy efficiency of power supplies used in Sun products.
  • 78. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Company commitments economy in the information age Appendix 4/78 Companies Public commitments Telecom Italia • 30% increase (with respect to 2007) of the eco-efficiency indicator for 2008: the objective for 2008 is 1,130 Bit/Joule (the value for 2007 is 873 B/J) • In 2008, 3 million kWh reduction through use of low-consumption lighting systems • In 2008, 200 tonnes CO2 reduction by substituting new methane generators for oil boilers • In 2008, 2,700 tonnes CO2 reduction by replacing Euro3 vehicles with Euro4 vehicles Telefónica S.A. • Collect and standardise carbon emission data in all of Telefónica’s operating markets and companies • Identify risks associated with future emission limits as well as the opportunities to cut them and improve the company’s environmental record • Draw up an energy efficiency plan • Calculate to what extent the products and services marketed by Telefónica reduce carbon emissions • Raise awareness of the need to fight climate change among social and economic agents • Establish a company-wide culture of awareness around climate change and energy savings Verizon • Verizon is committed to enhancing its green profile. Current initiatives have improved the company’s carbon intensity 2006-2007 by 1%. The company is expanding its efforts by a wide range of green initiatives, some of which will incorporate customer participation and/or adoption. These will be monitored by a council of senior executives. They include: – Promotion of paperless billing – Investigation and/or expansion of alternate energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal – Broadband alternatives to travel – Hybrid vehicles – Supporting HopeLine cell phone recycling programme – Benchmarking best practices of leaders in energy conservation and alternate power sources Vodafone plc • Reduce absolute CO2 emissions by 50% against the 2006/07 footprint baseline, by 2020 • Develop a separate climate change strategy for India and set a target by March 2009 • Research and reduce the environmental impact of Vodafone’s products and services • Design and deploy products and services that will help Vodafone’s customers mitigate climate change
  • 79. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Experts consulted and/or interviewed economy in the information age Appendix 5/79 Appendix 5:Experts consulted and/or interviewed for the analysis and reporting Name Role Organisation General experts/policy Skip Laitner Economic Analysis Director American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy James Lovegrove Managing Director American Electronics Association Europe Paul Dickinson Chief Executive CDP Barry Fogarty Consultant CDP Joseph Romm Senior Fellow Center for American Progress Michel Catinat Head of Unit B4 DG Enterprise John Doyle Monitoring and Evaluation Unit DG Info Society Peter Johnston Head, Monitoring and Evaluation DG Info Society Unit Matthew Baldwin Energy Advisor EU Commission President Barroso Pierre Schellekens Deputy Head of Cabinet EU Commissioner for Environment Dimas Jim Stack Analyst Freeman and Sullivan Chris Bone Head of Enterprise Fujitsu Siemens Computers Simon Mingay Analyst Gartner Chris Large Business Programme Manager Global Action Plan Faisal Qayium Project Manager, ICT Global Action Plan Lawrence Harrison Delivery Director Intellect Emma Fryer Energy Director Intellect Jon Koomey Staff Scientist LBNL Rebecca Henderson Professor of Management Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Rodrigo Prudencio Investor Nth Power Bruno Giussani European Director TED Conferences Nigel Zaldua-Taylor Head of ICT Transport for London Andrew Fanara Director of Energy Star US Environmental Protection Agency James Tee Project Manager, ICT World Economic Forum Tim Herzog Director of Online World Resources Institute Communications Dennis Pamlin Policy Director WWF
  • 80. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Experts consulted and/or interviewed economy in the information age Appendix 5/80 Name Role Organisation SMART motors, China Fan, Yaode Senior Engineer Bao Steel Zhang, Hui Engineer Bao Steel Jia, Ke Information Officer Beijing Office, National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) Li, Yuqi Chief Technical Advisor CHUEE Alex Wyatt Director Climate Bridge Xu, Shuigen Marketing and Business Honeywell Process Solution Development Director, China Valerie Karplus Postgraduate Student MIT Qin, Hongbo Motor Department Shanghai Energy Conservation Service Centre Wang, Guoxing Motor Department Shanghai Energy Conservation Service Centre Song, Yu Manufacturing Planning ManagerShanghai Volkswagen Five members of Marketing Marketing Shanghai Volkswagen Department Yu, Haibin Marketing Director Supcon Li, Yongdong Professor Tsinghua University Zhao, Rongxiang Professor Zhejiang University SMART logistics, EU Darren Briggs Logistics Consultant Arup Ewan French COO Barloworld Optimus Nelly Andrieu Masters Student Carbon-Efficient Supply Chains, MIT Lee Weiss Carbon-Efficient Supply Chains, MIT Edgar Blanco Executive Director Centre for Transportation and Logistics, MIT Adrian Dickinson Innovation Director, The Neutral DHL Group Grace Lowe Head of Environmental Fujitsu Management System Initiative Darran Watkins Senior Supply Chain Analyst IGD James Walton Chief Economist IGD Don Carli Director Institute of Sustainable Communication Professor Mohammed Naim Professor Logistics and Operations Management, Cardiff Business School Alan McKinnon Director, Professor of Logistics Logistics Research Centre, Herriot-Watt University Harold Krikke Professor Tilburg University John Hix Programme Manager, Freight UK Department for Transport Best Practice Group
  • 81. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Experts consulted and/or interviewed economy in the information age Appendix 5/81 Name Role Organisation SMART buildings, North America Gareth Ashley Associate Arup Amit Khanna Consultant – Mechanical/ Arup Sustainability Al Lyons Information Technology and Arup Telecommunications Team Lead Susan Kaplan Director, Sustainable Battery Park City Authority – Development Tour of Solitaire Mike Scheible Deputy Director California Air Resources Board (CARB) Chuck Schlock Programme Manager CARB Bill Welty CIO CARB Leena Pishe Thomas City Director, Delhi Clinton Climate Initiative Donald Winston Director Technical Services Durst Stuart Brodsky (Former) National Program Energy Star Manager, Commercial Properties Stephen Thomas Manager, Global Energy and Johnson Controls Sustainability Communications Bruce Nordman Staff Scientist LBNL Stephen Selkowitz Programme Head, Building LBNL Technologies Department Nidia Blake-Reeder Leon Glicksman Head, Building Technology MIT Programme, Department of Architecture Bill Mitchell Director MIT Design Laboratory Les Norford Professor MIT Bernhard Berner Chief Engineer National Resource Management Inc. Michael Brambley Staff Scientist Pacific Northwest Labs and ASHRAE Carlo Ratti Director SENSEable City Laboratory Jerry Dion Head of Smart Building US Department of Energy Technology Programme Michelle Moore Senior Vice President USGBC SMART grids, India Balawant Joshi Managing Partner ABPS Infra Bharat Lal Mena Director General Bangalore Electricity Supply Company (BESCOM) and Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Limited (KPTCL) Ted Geilen Senior Utilities Engineer, California Public Utilities Electricity Pricing and Programs Commission (CPUC) Dr. Hari Sharan Director DESI Power Lee Cooper Team Leader and Consultant to Emerging Technologies, PG&E Customer Energy Efficiency
  • 82. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Experts consulted and/or interviewed economy in the information age Appendix 5/82 Name Role Organisation Hal La Flash Director of Emerging Clean Emerging Technologies, PG&E Technology Policy Steve Pullins President (HE) and Leader of Horizon Energy – MGI Modern Grid Initiative (MGI) Alex Zheng Author and Consultant Horizon Energy – MGI Ashok Emani Management and Social Infrastructure Development Development Group, Senior Finance Company Specialist – Environment Sanjay Grewal Executive Vice President Infrastructure Development Finance Company Veena Vadini Senior Specialist – Environment Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ajay Mathur Director General Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency Jayant Kawale Joint Secretary Indian Ministry of Power Giresh B Pradhan Additional Secretary Indian Ministry of Power Vivek Kumar Head of Utilities Infosys Dipayan Mitra Climate Change Solutions Infosys Mitul Thapliyal Associate Infosys Sanjay Kumar Banga HOG (Automation and Network NDPL Analysis) Mithun Chakraborty Business Development and NDPL Knowledge Management Praveen Chorghade Head (Operations) NDPL BN Prasanna NDPL Robert Pratt GridWise Programme Manager Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Shantanu Dixit Director Prayas Energy Group Eric Dresselhuys CEO SilverSpring Networks John O'Farrell Executive Vice President Business SilverSpring Networks Development Raj Vaswani CTO SilverSpring Networks Gaurav Chakraverty Associate Fellow Teri Sangeeta Gupta Director Teri K Ramanathan Distinguished Fellow Teri
  • 83. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Glossary economy in the information age Appendix 6/83 Appendix 6: Glossary AB 32 – Assembly Bill 32: Legislation that puts a cap on California’s CO2e: Carbon dioxide equivalent. GHG emissions and creates a path for a market-based system and other Computer number control (CNC): Programme to provide individual mechanisms to bring the state’s emissions back down to 1990 levels robots with instructions to perform manufacturing tasks. by 2020. Control system: Facilitates automated control of a manufacturing ADSL: Asymmetric digital subscriber line. plant. Often based on DCS architecture. AMI: Advanced metering infrastructure. Cost curve: GHG abatement cost curve developed in 2007 by AMR: Automatic meter reading. McKinsey, which estimated the significance (in terms of emissions AMS: Advanced metering system (also known as advanced metering). reductions) and cost of each possible method of reducing emissions APDRP v2 – Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme globally, and by region and by sector. v2: Programme introduced in 2008 to accelerate power distribution CPFR: Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment. sector reforms in India. Cradle-to-grave approach: Analysis that incorporates all stages of | API: Adaptive processor intensity. a process from first to last (e.g. product development and manufacture AT&C losses – Aggregated technical and commercial losses: As well as to disposal). accounting for losses of electricity T&D across the grid (technical CRT – cathode ray tube: Used in computer or television monitors, but losses), this term incorporates additional losses from theft of electricity increasingly being replaced by LCD or plasma screen technology. from the grid (commercial losses). Data centre: Facility used to house computer systems and associated AWBCS: Automated whole building control systems. components. AWBDS: Automated whole building diagnostic systems. DCS architecture – Distributed control system architecture: System BACnet: Data communication protocol for building automation and through which intelligence is distributed across components of the control networks, developed by ASHRAE. system and requires network connectivity for communication and Bandwidth: Rate of data transfer, measured in bits per second. monitoring. Base station (also known as radio base station or RBS): Decentralised energy: Electricity production at or near the point of (a) Telecoms: wireless communications station installed at a fixed location use, irrespective of size, technology or fuel used, both off-grid and and used to communicate as part of either a push-to-talk two-way radio on-grid. system or a wireless telephone system. (b) Computing: Radio receiver/ Demand response: Reduction of customer energy usage at times of transmitter serving as the hub of the local wireless network; may also be peak usage in order to help improve system reliability, reflect market the gateway between wired and wireless networks. conditions and pricing and support infrastructure optimisation or BAU: Business as usual. deferral. BMS - Building management system: Used in smart buildings to Dematerialisation: The substitution of high carbon activities or automatically control and adjust heating, cooling, lighting and products with low carbon alternatives. energy use. DGNB: Deutsches Gesellschaft für nachhaltiges Bauen e.V. BREEAM: Building Research Establishment Environmental Direct footprint: In this report refers to the CO2e impact of the Assessment Method. ICT sector. Broadband: Wide band of frequencies used to transmit Direct load control: System or programme that allows utilities, telecommunications information. other load serving entities or demand response service providers to Broad operating temperature envelope and fresh air cooling: control user load. Combined use of computing components with operating temperature Direct methanol fuel cell: Electrochemical alternative energy device range of 5-40°C with low power cooling by fresh air. that converts high-energy density fuel (liquid methanol) directly CAGR: Compound annual growth rate. to electricity. Captive power generation (also known as captive generation): Distributed generation: Generation of electricity from small Power generation from a unit set up by industry/households for energy sources. exclusive consumption as a means to ensure a constant power supply. DSM: Demand side management. Carbon footprint: Impact of human activities on the environment Dynamic demand: Semi-passive technology for adjusting load measured in terms GHG produced, measured in CO2e. demands on an electrical power grid. Carbon intensity: Quantity of CO2e emitted per unit of energy Dynamic smart cooling: Dynamic detection and target cooling of produced by the burning of a fuel. areas of high temperature within data centres. CASBEE: Comprehensive Assessment System for Building E-commerce (also known as electronic commerce): Buying Environmental Efficiency. and selling of products and services over the internet and other CDM: Clean development mechanism. computer networks. CDMA: Code division multiple access. EDGE: Enhanced data rates for GSM revolution. CDP: Carbon Disclosure Project. EFX: Electronic freight exchanges. Cholesteric LCD screen (see also LCD screen): Cholesteric liquid EICC: Electronic Industry Code of Conduct. crystal displays are brighter and higher contrast than conventional LCDs EiT: Economies in transition. in ambient lighting. Embodied carbon: Total CO2e required to get a product to its position CHP: Combined heat and power. and state. Includes product manufacture, transport and disposal. CHUEE: China Utility-based Energy Efficiency Finance Program. EMCS – Energy management control system: Electronic devices with Cloud computing: System of computing in which the computing microprocessors and communication capabilities that utilise powerful, resources being accessed are typically owned and operated by low-cost microprocessors and standard cabling communication third-party providers on a consolidated basis in data centre locations. protocols. CMIE: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd. EMEA: Europe, Middle East and Africa. CO2: Carbon dioxide. Emerging markets: Business and market activity in industrialising or
  • 84. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Glossary economy in the information age Appendix 6/84 emerging regions of the world. LCD – Liquid crystal displays (see also Cholesteric LCD screen): Emissions factor: Carbon footprint of any energy source, expressed Screen composed of LCDs, one per pixel, which darken or change colour for example as kgCO2/kWh. This report used emissions factors based on when activated. McKinsey and Vattenfall cost curve. Leapfrogging: Theory of development in which developing countries Enabling effect: Term coined in this report to describe the ability of may accelerate development by skipping inferior, inefficient, expensive ICT solutions to facilitate emissions reductions by means of: improved or polluting technologies and industries, moving directly to more visibility; management and optimisation of processes; and behavioural advanced ones. change as a result of better information provision. LED: Light-emitting diode. Energy Conservation Act: Legal framework introduced in India in LEED – Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design: Green 2001 to promote economy-wide energy efficiency. Led to the formation building rating system established by the US Green Business Council. of the Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency. Lever: In this report refers to a device, application or mechanism whose Energy intensity: Ratio of energy use to economic or physical output. use or implementation brings about a reduction in GHG emissions. EPEAT: Electronic Product Environmental Assessment Tool. Load control: Practices undertaken by electrical utilities to ensure that ESCO: Energy services company. electrical load is less than what can be generated. EuP: Energy-using products. Load dispatch: Refers to the scheduling of power generation. EuP Directive: The EU Directive 2005/32/EC on the eco-design of Load management: Refers to interruptible rates, curtailment Energy-using Products (EuP). programmes and direct load control programmes. GDP: Gross domestic product. Mainframes: Computers used mainly by large organisations for critical GHG: Greenhouse gas. applications, typically bulk data processing such as census, industry GIS – Geographic[al] information system (also known as geospatial and consumer statistics and financial transaction processing. information system): System for capturing, storing, analysing, Mbit: Megabit. managing and presenting data and associated attributes that are MCX – Multi-commodity exchange: Indian multi-commodity spatially referenced to Earth. exchange with recognition from the Indian government for facilitating Gj - Gigajoule: One billion joules. online trading, clearing and settlement operations for the national GPS – Global positioning system: The only fully functional global commodities futures market. navigation satellite system. Utilising a satellite constellation of at least Mesh network: Means of routing data, voice and instructions between 24 medium earth orbit satellites that transmit precise microwave nodes. signals, the system enables a GPS receiver to determine its location, MNC: Multinational corporation. speed, direction and time. Mobile switching centre: System that connects calls by switching Green Building Finance Consortium: Group of corporations, real the digital voice packets from one network path to another (also known estate companies and trade groups addressing the need for independent as routing). research and analysis of investment in energy efficient buildings. Motor controllers: Devices that regulate motor speeds based on Green Grid: International not-for-profit organisation whose mandate required output. Use information received from other system parts to is to increase energy efficiency in the IT sector. adjust motor speed. GSM: Global system for mobile communications. MRO: Maintenance, repair and operating. Gt – Gigatonne: One billion tonnes. Mt: Megatonne (1 million tonnes). HVAC: Heating, ventilation and air conditioning. Multicore processor: Processor that has multiple processing cores that ICT – Information and communications technology: Combination of can perform several tasks in parallel with each other instead of in devices and services that capture, transmit and display data and sequence. information electronically. National Electricity Act: Legislation passed by the Indian government ICT company: GeSI constitution definition – “Any company or in 2003 to speed up the development of efficiency within the electricity organisation which, as a principal part of its business, provides a service sector. for the point-to-point transmission of voice, data or moving images NDPL: North Delhi Power Ltd. over a fixed, internet, mobile or personal communication network, or is Network optimisation package: Software, network design and a supplier of equipment which is an integral component of the planning-based solution. communication network infrastructure, or procedures equipment or Network sharing: System that allows a device or piece of information software associated with the electronic storage processing or on a computer to be remotely accessed from another computer, transmission of data.” typically via a local area network or an enterprise intranet. IEA: International Energy Agency. NGA: Next generation access. Indirect impact: Also referred to in this report as the enabling effect, NGN: Next generation network. the impact of ICT in reducing the GHG emissions attributed to other NGO: Non-governmental organisation. sectors such as transport, industry or power. OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. IMC – Intelligent motor controller: Monitors the load condition of OMS: Output management system. motors and adjusts voltage input accordingly. Optical computing: Uses light instead of electricity to manipulate, IP or internet protocol: Data-oriented protocol used for store and transmit data. communicating data across a packet-switched internetwork. pa: per annum. IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Scientific PC: Personal computer. intergovernmental body set up to assess the scientific, technical and Peak load or peak generation: Maximum power requirement of a socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific system at a given time, or the amount of power required to supply basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts customers at times when need is greatest. and options for adaptation and mitigation. Peripherals: Include monitors and printers associated with PCs. IPTV: System where a digital television service is delivered using Phantom power: Undesired electricity discharged by appliances and internet protocol over a network infrastructure, which may include battery chargers when not in use. delivery by a broadband connection. PLT – Power line telecom: System for using electric power lines to IPTV box: Internet protocol set-top box. carry information over the power line. ISO 14040: International 2006 standard, which describes the principles Power management: Systems that monitor and control activity levels and framework for LCA. of individual PC hardware components such as processors, batteries, AC IT: Information technology. adapters, fans, monitors and hard disk. ITU: International Telecommunications Union ppm: parts per million. kWh: Kilowatt hour. PUE: Power usage effectiveness. Kyoto Protocol: Legally binding agreement of the UNFCCC in which Quantum computing: Quantum computers are hypothetical devices industrialised country signatories will reduce their collective GHG that make direct use of distinctively quantum mechanical phenomena emissions by 5.2% on 1990 levels. Negotiated in December 1997 in to perform operations on data. The basic principle of quantum Kyoto, Japan, and came into force in February 2005. computation is that the quantum properties can be used to represent LBNL: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. and structure data, and that quantum mechanisms can be devised and LCA: Life-cycle analysis (also known as life-cycle assessment). built to perform operations with this data. Radio base station (see Base station).
  • 85. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon Glossary economy in the information age Appendix 6/85 Rebound effect: Increases in demand caused by the introduction of the Earth Summit in Rio de Janiero. Its ultimate objective is the more energy efficient technologies. This increase in demand reduces the “stabilisation of GHG concentration in the atmosphere at a level that energy conservation effect of the improved technology on total would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate resource use. system.” Came into force March 1994 and is ratified by 192 countries. Replacement rate: Rate at which a particular device or application is USGBC: US Green Building Council. replaced by another. Utility computing (also known as on-demand computing): Results-only work environment (also known as ROWE): The packaging of computational resource, such as computation and Staff management principle in which employees are free to work storage, as a metered service similar to a physical public utility such as wherever and whenever they want, as long as work is completed. electricity and water. RFID – Radio-frequency identification: Automatic identification Value tree analysis: The method used for this report to calculate the and data capture method, relying on storing and remotely retrieving value at stake in each case study from the associated savings in data using devices called RFID tags. electricity, fuel combustion and carbon emissions. Router: Computer whose software and hardware are tailored to route VDSL – Very high-speed digital subscriber line: DSL technology and forward information. providing faster data transmission over a single twisted pair of copper RoW: Rest of world. Sarbanes–Oxley accounting data legislation (see wires. Sarbanes–Oxley Act) Sarbanes–Oxley Act (also known as the Public Videoconferencing: The audio and video transmission of meeting Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act): 2002 US activities. federal law that establishes or enhances standards for all US public Virtualisation: Software allows computation users to reduce hardware company boards, management and public accounting firms. assets, or use them more efficiently, by running multiple virtual SCADA - Supervisory control and data acquisition: Software machines side by side on the same hardware, emulating different package designed to perform data collection and control at the components of their IT systems. supervisory level. VMR: Vendor-managed repair. Server: Application or device that performs services for connected Volume server: Fastest-growing category of server (includes blade clients as part of a client-server architecture. servers) and is defined by IDC as servers that cost under $25,000 Sinaut spectrum: Provides a control centre which gives an up-to-date (¤39,439). summary on the distribution network at all times. VSD - Variable speed drive: Controls the frequency of electrical Smart building: Group of embodied ICT systems that maximise energy power supplied to a motor. efficiency in buildings. W: Watt. Smart charger: Device (primarily mobile phone) battery charger that WCDMA - Wideband code division multiple access: Type of third turns off when the device is fully charged or if plugged in without generation cellular network. device attached. Workstation: High-end microcomputer designed for technical or Smart grid: Integration of ICT applications throughout the grid, from scientific applications. generator to user, to enable efficiency and optimisation solutions. XML: Extensible Markup Language Smart logistics: Variety of ICT applications that enable reductions in fuel and energy use by enabling better journey and load planning. Smart meters: Advanced meters that identify consumption in more detail than conventional meters and communicate via a network back to the utility for monitoring and billing purposes. Smart motors: ICT technologies that reduce energy consumption at the level of the motor, the factory or across the business. SME: Small or medium enterprise. SMS – Short message service: Communications protocol allowing the interchange of short text messages between mobile telephone devices. SOAP: Simple object access protocol. Solid state hard drives (also known as solid state drives): Data storage device that uses solid state memory to store persistent data and emulates a hard drive, thus easily replacing it in any application. SPV – solar photovoltaics: Technology that uses energy from the sun to create electricity. Consists of layers of semiconducting material, usually silicon. Light shining on the cell creates an electric field across the layers, causing electricity to flow.. Substitution: In this study, taken to mean the replacement of one behavioural pattern by another. T&D: Transmission and distribution. TCP/IP – Internet protocol suite: Set of communications protocols that implement the protocol stack on which the internet and most commercial networks run. Technology platform: Describes a bundle of related software programmes and hardware that deliver intelligent capabilities. Technology transfer: The exchange of knowledge, hardware, software, money and goods among stakeholders that leads to the spreading of technology for adaptation or mitigation. Telecommuting: Replacing commuting by rail, car or other transport with working from home. Telecoms (also known as telecommunications): Systems used in transmitting messages over a distance electronically. Telecoms network: Network of links and nodes arranged so that messages may be passed from one part of the network to another over multiple links and through various nodes. Teleconferencing: Service that allows multiple participants in one phone call, replacing or complementing face-to-face meetings. Teleworking: Working remotely via the use of ICT solutions. Includes telecommuting and tele- and videoconferencing. Transformers: Devices that transfer electrical energy from one electrical network to another through inductively coupled electrical conductors. TWh: TeraWatt hour. UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Adopted in May 1992, signed by more than 150 countries at
  • 86. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age
  • 87. SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age Design BB/Saunders Photography Lee Mawdsley