March 2011 - Michigan Energy Forum - Brett C. Smith
- 1. DEPLOYMENT ROLLOUT ESTIMATE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES 2011-2015 AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CARGROUP.ORG/PDFS/DEPLOYMENT.PDF (BY KIM HILL AND JOSH CREGGER) Brett C. Smith Co-Director, Manufacturing, Engineering and Technology Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor, MI
- 3. Retail Hybrid Registrations: 2007-2009 (Percent of Total Hybrid Fleet) 24.0% 5.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.4% 5.5% Registrations per 10,000 Residents Less than 0.5% 0.5 to 1.5% 1.5 to 5.0% 5.0 to 6.0% 24.0% 5.3%
- 4. … will Plug In Electrics (PEVs)?
- 5. National Electric Vehicle Adoption Assumptions: 2011-2015 Two estimates were used for calculating state allocations: Aggregated company announcement values gathered from press releases and news articles Sales forecast estimate that integrated numbers from the IHS Global Insight forecast, the J.D. Power forecast, and CAR research.
- 6. National Electric Vehicle Adoption Assumptions: 2011-2015
- 7. Launch Market Selection Criteria Political impact: Which politicians will be most appreciative. Consumer pull—where will people actually buy the cars? Technology considerations Not too hot, and not too cold. Strong, proactive utilities (and to a lesser extent, local stakeholders) (and) where do your engineers live.
- 8. Deployment of Selected Electric Vehicles (Year 1 Deployment by State by Mfr) (DC)
- 9. Retail EV Registrations (2012-2015) by State per 10,000 Registrations (2008) 35.4 29.8 28.8 26.9 27.6 69.6 (DC) 26.7 25.9 33.2 26.2 29.2 EVs per 10,000 2008 Registrations Less than 10.0 10.0 to 20.0 20.0 to 30.0 More than 30.0 29.1 23.6 29.2 21.5 23.2 22.1 22.2
- 10. Locations of Public Electric Charging and Hydrogen Fueling Stations Stations
- 11. Importance of Electric Charging Infrastructure in EV Adoption Home charging is essential for electric vehicle adoption. Work-based charging is next step. Public charging infrastructure is less vital to successful early electric vehicle deployment, but strategically placed public chargers are important: Overcome range anxiety and, Act as an advertisement for PEVs
- 12. Conclusions Estimating deployment of electric vehicles is extremely difficult, given they are just now reaching the market Using hybrid vehicles as a proxy provides a reasonable starting point for deployment estimates Many factors could affect deployment Fleet operations decisions Development of EV-friendly cities and regions Government programs
- 13. One Last Caveat: New Technologies Risks New Technologies = Huge Risk Ironically, there are too many technology options Multitude of technology options, each with unknown future costs and technology synergies Market is very competitive – customers discount fuel economy Manufacturer at a competitive disadvantage if the selected technology ultimately proves to be more expensive Even worse – widespread adoption of a technology that does not meet customer expectations for performance and reliability Hurts manufacturers’ reputation Sets back acceptance of new technology for everyone (e.g. early 1980s diesel) Source: J. German, icct
- 14. Thank You Brett C. Smith Co-Director, Manufacturing, Engineering and Technology Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor, MI The Business of Plugging In: A Plug-In Electric Vehicle Conference October 2010, Dearborn, MI