![A bliss in proof,—and prov'd, a very woe."
—(Sonnet cxxix.)
He had seen in her an irresistible and degrading Delilah, the Delilah
whom De Vigny centuries later anathematised in a famous couplet.
[1] He had bewailed, as Antony does now, that his beloved had
belonged to many:
"If eyes, corrupt by over-partial looks,
Be anchor'd in the bay where all men ride,
. . . . . .
Why should my heart think that a several plot
Which my heart knows the wide world's common
place?''
—(Sonnet cxxxvii.)
He had, like Antony, suffered agonies from the coquetry she would
lavish on any one she wanted to win. He had then burst forth in
complaint, as Antony in the drama breaks out into frenzy:
"Tell me thou lov'st elsewhere; but in my sight,
Dear heart, forbear to glance thine eye aside:
What need'st thou wound with cunning, when thy
might
Is more than my o'er-pressed defence can 'bide?"
—(Sonnet cxxxix.)
Now he no longer upbraided her; now he crowned her with a
queenly diadem, and placed her, living, breathing, and in the largest
sense true to nature, on that stage which was his world.
As in Othello he had made the lover-hero about as old as he was
himself at the time he wrote the play, so now it interested him to
represent this stately and splendid lover who was no longer young.
In the Sonnets he had already dwelt upon his age. He says, for
instance, in Sonnet cxxxviii.:
"When my love swears that she is made of truth,
I do believe her, though I know she lies,](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/67747-250521201944-1219f373/85/Statistics-A-Gentle-Introduction-4th-Edition-Frederick-L-Coolidge-55-320.jpg)
![cold sagacity, and that he is determined to exhibit her humiliation to
the populace of Rome as one of the spectacles of his triumph, that
she lets the worm of Nilus give her her death.
In these passages the poet has placed Cleopatra's behaviour in a
much more unfavourable light than the Greek historian, whom he
follows as far as details are concerned; and he has evidently done so
wittingly and purposely, in order to complete his home-thrust at the
type of woman whose dangerousness he has embodied in her. In
Plutarch all these negotiations with Octavius were a feint to deceive
the vigilance with which he thought to prevent her from killing
herself. Suicide is her one thought, and he has baulked her in her
first attempt. She pretends to cling to her treasures only to delude
him into the belief that she still clings to life, and her heroic
imposture is successful. Shakespeare, for whom she is ever the
quintessence of the she-animal in woman, disparages her
intentionally by suppressing the historical explanation of her
behavior.[2].
The English critic, Arthur Symons, writes: "Antony and Cleopatra is
the most wonderful, I think, of all Shakespeare's plays, and it is so
mainly because the figure of Cleopatra is the most wonderful of
Shakespeare's women. And not of Shakespeare's women only, but
perhaps the most wonderful of women."
This is carrying enthusiasm almost too far. But thus much is true: the
great attraction of this masterpiece lies in the unique figure of
Cleopatra, elaborated as it is with all Shakespeare's human
experience and artistic enthusiasm. But the greatness of the world-
historic drama proceeds from the genius with which he has entwined
the private relations of the two lovers with the course of history and
the fate of empires. Just as Antony's ruin results from his connection
with Cleopatra, so does the fall of the Roman Republic result from
the contact of the simple hardihood of the West with the luxury of
the East. Antony is Rome, Cleopatra is the Orient. When he perishes,
a prey to the voluptuousness of the East, it seems as though Roman
greatness and the Roman Republic expired with him.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/67747-250521201944-1219f373/85/Statistics-A-Gentle-Introduction-4th-Edition-Frederick-L-Coolidge-60-320.jpg)
![Not Cæsar's ambition, not Cæsar's assassination, but this crumbling
to pieces of Roman greatness fourteen years later brings home to us
the ultimate fall of the old world-republic, and impresses us with that
sense of universal annihilation which in this play, as in King Lear,
Shakespeare aims at begetting.
This is no tragedy of a domestic, limited nature like the conclusion of
Othello; there is no young Fortinbras here, as in Hamlet, giving the
promise of brighter and better times to come; the victory of Octavius
brings glory to no one and promises nothing. No; the final picture is
that which Shakespeare was bent on painting from the moment he
felt himself attracted by this great theme—the picture of a world-
catastrophe.
[1]
"Toujours ce compagnon dont le cœur n'est pas sûr,
La Femme—enfant malade et douze fois impur."
[2] Goethe has a marked imitation of Shakespeare's Cleopatra in the Adelheid of
Götz von Berlichingen. And he has placed Weislingen between Adelheid and Maria
as Antony stands between Cleopatra and Octavia bound to the former and
marrying the latter.
BOOK THIRD
I
DISCORD AND SCORN
Out of tune—out of tune!](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/67747-250521201944-1219f373/85/Statistics-A-Gentle-Introduction-4th-Edition-Frederick-L-Coolidge-61-320.jpg)
![springing to her feet called upon God to punish the despoiler of her
property. Raleigh, on the 2nd of January 1609, tried the more politic
method of writing to Carr, entreating him not to aspire to the
possession of Sherborne. He received no answer, and upon the 10th
of the same month the estate was handed over to the favourite as a
gift. It is to be regretted that Raleigh, who had never concealed his
opinion of the King's favourites, should have lowered himself by
writing to Carr as "one whom I know not, but by honourable fame."
Lady Raleigh accepted a sum of money in compensation, which bore
no relation to the real value of Sherborne, and Raleigh was left in
the Tower. It is a highly characteristic feature that he remained there
year after year until he succeeded (in 1616) in arousing his kingly
gaoler's cupidity afresh. In the hope of his finding the anticipated
gold-mines in Guiana his prison doors were opened for a while
(1616-17), and his failure to discover them was made a pretext for
his execution.[1]
[1] "Sir Walter Raleigh was freed out of the Tower the last week, and goes up and
down, seeing sights and places built or bettered since his imprisonment,"—Letter
from John Chamberlain to Sir Dudley Carleton, 27th March 1616 ("The Court and
Times of James the First"). Gardiner's "History of England," ii. 43; Gosse,
"Raleigh," 172.
III
THE KING'S THEOLOGY AND IMPECUNIOSITY—HIS
DISPUTES WITH THE HOUSE OF COMMONS
The King's interest in parsons and theological discussions was not a
whit inferior to his passion for his favourites. He constantly gave
public expression to a superstition which diverted even
contemporary culture. It is jestingly alluded to in a letter from Sir](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/67747-250521201944-1219f373/85/Statistics-A-Gentle-Introduction-4th-Edition-Frederick-L-Coolidge-68-320.jpg)
![Edward Hoby to Sir Thomas Edmondes, dated Nov. 19, 1605. "His
Majesty in his speech observed one principal point, that most of all
his best fortunes had happened unto him upon the Tuesday; and
particularly he repeated his deliverance from Gowry [the brothers
Ruthven] and this [Gunpowder Plot], in which he noted precisely
that both fell upon the fifth day of the month: and therefore
concluded that he made choice that the next sitting of Parliament
might begin upon a Tuesday." If James supported the claims of the
clergy, it was less on religious grounds than because his own kingly
power was thereby strengthened, and he disseminated, to the best
of his ability, the doctrine that all questions must finally be referred
to his personal wisdom and insight. Relations between the temporal
and the spiritual jurisdictions were already strained. The secular
judges frequently objected that the Spiritual Court entered into
certain lawsuits before making sure that the case appertained to
them. The clergy resisted, asserting that the two courts were
independent of one another, and that their spiritual prerogatives
emanated direct from the Crown. In 1605 the Archbishop of
Canterbury complained of the secular judges to the King, and they,
in their turn, appealed to Parliament. Fuller, a member of Parliament,
and one of the principal advocates of the Puritan party, defended
two of the accused who had been shamefully mishandled by the
Spiritual Court (the High Commission), and he denied this "Popish
authority," as he called it, any right to impose fines or inflict
imprisonment. For these reckless utterances he was sent to gaol,
and kept there until he retracted. The question of the supremacy of
temporal jurisdiction over the spiritual began to ferment in the public
mind. The King held by the latter, because it exercised an authority
which Parliament was powerless to control, while Lord Chief Justice
Coke stood by the former. On the latter giving vent, however, to the
opinion, in the King's presence, that the sovereign was bound to
respect the law of the land, and to remember that spiritual
jurisdiction was extraneous, James clenched angry fists in his face,
and would have struck him, had not Coke, alarmed, fallen on his
knees and entreated pardon.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/67747-250521201944-1219f373/85/Statistics-A-Gentle-Introduction-4th-Edition-Frederick-L-Coolidge-69-320.jpg)
Statistics: A Gentle Introduction 4th Edition Frederick L. Coolidge
- 1. Statistics: A Gentle Introduction 4th Edition Frederick L. Coolidge install download https://ebookmeta.com/product/statistics-a-gentle- introduction-4th-edition-frederick-l-coolidge/ Download more ebook from https://ebookmeta.com
- 2. We believe these products will be a great fit for you. Click the link to download now, or visit ebookmeta.com to discover even more! A Gentle Introduction to SuperCollider 2nd Edition Bruno Ruviaro https://ebookmeta.com/product/a-gentle-introduction-to- supercollider-2nd-edition-bruno-ruviaro/ Financial Theory with Python: A Gentle Introduction 1st Edition Yves Hilpisch https://ebookmeta.com/product/financial-theory-with-python-a- gentle-introduction-1st-edition-yves-hilpisch/ Machine Learning Simplified A Gentle Introduction to Supervised Learning Andrew Wolf https://ebookmeta.com/product/machine-learning-simplified-a- gentle-introduction-to-supervised-learning-andrew-wolf/ Biodentine Properties and Clinical Applications 1st Edition Imad About https://ebookmeta.com/product/biodentine-properties-and-clinical- applications-1st-edition-imad-about-2/
- 3. The Rough Guide to Florida Travel Guide with Free eBook Rough Guides 12th Edition Rough Guides https://ebookmeta.com/product/the-rough-guide-to-florida-travel- guide-with-free-ebook-rough-guides-12th-edition-rough-guides/ Cross Nationally Comparative Evidence based Educational Policymaking and Reform 1st Edition Alexander W. Wiseman https://ebookmeta.com/product/cross-nationally-comparative- evidence-based-educational-policymaking-and-reform-1st-edition- alexander-w-wiseman/ Real Wolves Bite 03.0 - Wild Girl 1st Edition C.R. Jane https://ebookmeta.com/product/real-wolves-bite-03-0-wild- girl-1st-edition-c-r-jane/ Government and Not for profit Accounting 8th Edition Michael H. Granof https://ebookmeta.com/product/government-and-not-for-profit- accounting-8th-edition-michael-h-granof/ The Coaster 1st Edition Erich Wurster https://ebookmeta.com/product/the-coaster-1st-edition-erich- wurster/
- 4. Price of Love The Auction Series 1st Edition Banks Tamrin https://ebookmeta.com/product/price-of-love-the-auction- series-1st-edition-banks-tamrin/
- 7. I dedicate this book to the memory of my mother and father, Dolores J. Coolidge and Paul L. Coolidge; to my mother who always bought me any book I wanted and to my father who encouraged me to be a teacher.
- 8. Sara Miller McCune founded SAGE Publishing in 1965 to support the dissemination of usable knowledge and educate a global community. SAGE publishes more than 1000 journals and over 800 new books each year, spanning a wide range of subject areas. Our growing selection of library products includes archives, data, case studies and video. SAGE remains majority owned by our founder and after her lifetime will become owned by a charitable trust that secures the company’s continued independence. Los Angeles | London | New Delhi | Singapore | Washington DC | Melbourne
- 9. STATISTICS A Gentle Introduction Fourth Edition Frederick L. Coolidge University of Colorado, Colorado Springs Los Angeles
- 11. Copyright © 2021 by SAGE Publications, Inc. All rights reserved. Except as permitted by U.S. copyright law, no part of this work may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. All trademarks depicted within this book, including trademarks appearing as part of a screenshot, figure, or other image are included solely for the purpose of illustration and are the property of their respective holders. The use of the trademarks in no way indicates any relationship with, or endorsement by, the holders of said trademarks. SPSS is a registered trademark of International Business Machines Corporation. FOR INFORMATION: SAGE Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: order@sagepub.com SAGE Publications Ltd. 1 Oliver’s Yard 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd.
- 12. B 1/I 1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044 India SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte. Ltd. 18 Cross Street #10-10/11/12 China Square Central Singapore 048423 Library of Congress Control Number: 2019951696 Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-5063-6843-6 This book is printed on acid-free paper. Acquisitions Editor: Leah Fargotstein Content Development Editor: Chelsea Neve Editorial Assistant: Natalie Elliott Marketing Manager: Shari Countryman Production Editor: Veronica Stapleton Hooper Copy Editor: D. J. Peck Typesetter: Hurix Digital Proofreader: Dennis W. Webb Indexer: Joan Shapiro
- 13. Cover Designer: Candice Harman
- 14. BRIEF CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgments About the Author Chapter 1 • A Gentle Introduction Chapter 2 • Descriptive Statistics: Understanding Distributions of Numbers Chapter 3 • Statistical Parameters: Measures of Central Tendency and Variation Chapter 4 • Standard Scores, the z Distribution, and Hypothesis Testing Chapter 5 • Inferential Statistics: The Controlled Experiment, Hypothesis Testing, and the z Distribution Chapter 6 • An Introduction to Correlation and Regression Chapter 7 • The t Test for Independent Groups Chapter 8 • The t Test for Dependent Groups Chapter 9 • Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): One-Factor Completely Randomized Design Chapter 10 • After a Significant ANOVA: Multiple Comparison Tests Chapter 11 • Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): One-Factor Repeated- Measures Design Chapter 12 • Factorial ANOVA: Two-Factor Completely Randomized Design Chapter 13 • Post Hoc Analysis of Factorial ANOVA Chapter 14 • Factorial ANOVA: Additional Designs Chapter 15 • Nonparametric Statistics: The Chi-Square Test and Other Nonparametric Tests Chapter 16 • Other Statistical Topics, Parameters, and Tests Appendix A: z Distribution Appendix B: t Distribution Appendix C: Spearman’s Correlation Appendix D: Chi-Square χ2 Distribution Appendix E: F Distribution Appendix F: Tukey’s Table Appendix G: Mann–Whitney U Critical Values Appendix H: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test Critical Values
- 15. Appendix I: Answers to Odd-Numbered Test Yourself Questions Glossary References Index
- 16. DETAILED CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgments About the Author Chapter 1 • A Gentle Introduction How Much Math Do I Need to Do Statistics? The General Purpose of Statistics: Understanding the World Another Purpose of Statistics: Making an Argument or a Decision What Is a Statistician? One Role: The Curious Detective Another Role: The Honest Attorney A Final Role: A Good Storyteller Liberal and Conservative Statisticians Descriptive and Inferential Statistics Experiments Are Designed to Test Theories and Hypotheses Oddball Theories Bad Science and Myths Eight Essential Questions of Any Survey or Study 1. Who Was Surveyed or Studied? 2. Why Did the People Participate in the Study? 3. Was There a Control Group, and Did the Control Group Receive a Placebo? 4. How Many People Participated in the Study? 5. How Were the Questions Worded to the Participants in the Study? 6. Was Causation Assumed From a Correlational Study? 7. Who Paid for the Study? 8. Was the Study Published in a Peer-Reviewed Journal? On Making Samples Representative of the Population Experimental Design and Statistical Analysis as Controls The Language of Statistics On Conducting Scientific Experiments
- 17. The Dependent Variable and Measurement Operational Definitions Measurement Error Measurement Scales: The Difference Between Continuous and Discrete Variables Types of Measurement Scales Nominal Scales Ordinal Scales Interval Scales Ratio Scales Rounding Numbers and Rounding Error Percentages Statistical Symbols Summary History Trivia: Achenwall to Nightingale Key Terms Chapter 1 Practice Problems Chapter 1 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 1 Opening the Program Creating a Data File Changing the Display Format for New Numeric Variables Entering Variable Names Entering Data Numeric Variables Versus String Variables Saving Your Data Changing the Folder Where Your Data Are Saved Opening and Saving Your Data Files Chapter 2 • Descriptive Statistics: Understanding Distributions of Numbers The Purpose of Graphs and Tables: Making Arguments and Decisions How a Good Graph Stopped a Cholera Epidemic How Bad Graphs and Tables Contributed to the Space Shuttle
- 18. Challenger Explosion How a Poor PowerPoint® Presentation Contributed to the Space Shuttle Columbia Disaster A Summary of the Purpose of Graphs and Tables 1. Document the Sources of Statistical Data and Their Characteristics 2. Make Appropriate Comparisons 3. Demonstrate the Mechanisms of Cause and Effect and Express the Mechanisms Quantitatively 4. Recognize the Inherent Multivariate Nature of Analytic Problems 5. Inspect and Evaluate Alternative Hypotheses Graphical Cautions Frequency Distributions Shapes of Frequency Distributions Grouping Data Into Intervals Advice on Grouping Data Into Intervals 1. Choose Interval Widths That Reduce Your Data to 5 to 10 Intervals 2. Choose the Size of Your Interval Widths Based on Understandable Units, for Example, Multiples of 5 or 10 3. Make Sure That Your Chosen Intervals Do Not Overlap The Cumulative Frequency Distribution Cumulative Percentages, Percentiles, and Quartiles Stem-and-Leaf Plot Non-normal Frequency Distributions On the Importance of the Shapes of Distributions Additional Thoughts About Good Graphs Versus Bad Graphs Low-Density Graphs Chart Junk Changing Scales Midstream (or Mid-Axis) Labeling the Graph Badly The Multicolored Graph PowerPoint® Graphs and Presentations History Trivia: De Moivre to Tukey Key Terms
- 19. Chapter 2 Practice Problems Chapter 2 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 2 Creating a Frequency Distribution Creating a Bar Chart Creating a Histogram Understanding Skewness and Kurtosis Describing the Total Autistic Symptoms Data Describing the Schizoid Personality Disorder Data Chapter 3 • Statistical Parameters: Measures of Central Tendency and Variation Measures of Central Tendency The Mean The Median Method 1 Method 2 The Mode Choosing Among Measures of Central Tendency Klinkers and Outliers Uncertain or Equivocal Results Measures of Variation The Range The Standard Deviation Correcting for Bias in the Sample Standard Deviation How the Square Root of x2 Is Almost Equivalent to Taking the Absolute Value of x The Computational Formula for Standard Deviation The Variance The Sampling Distribution of Means, the Central Limit Theorem, and the Standard Error of the Mean The Use of the Standard Deviation for Prediction Practical Uses of the Empirical Rule: As a Definition of an Outlier Practical Uses of the Empirical Rule: Prediction and IQ Tests Some Further Comments
- 20. History Trivia: Fisher to Eels Key Terms Chapter 3 Practice Problems Chapter 3 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 3 Generating Central Tendency and Variation Statistics Chapter 4 • Standard Scores, the z Distribution, and Hypothesis Testing Standard Scores The Classic Standard Score: The z Score and the z Distribution Calculating z Scores More Practice on Converting Raw Data Into z Scores Converting z Scores to Other Types of Standard Scores The z Distribution Interpreting Negative z Scores Testing the Predictions of the Empirical Rule With the z Distribution Why Is the z Distribution so Important? How We Use the z Distribution to Test Experimental Hypotheses More Practice With the z Distribution and T Scores Example 1: Finding the Area in a z Distribution That Falls Above a Known Score Where the Known Score Is Above the Mean Example 2: Finding the Area in a z Distribution That Falls Below a Known Score Where the Known Score Is Above the Mean Example 3: Finding the Area in a z Distribution That Falls Below a Known Score Where the Known Score Is Below the Mean Example 4: Finding The Area in a z Distribution That Falls Above a Known Score Where the Known Score Is Below the Mean Example 5: Finding The Area in a z Distribution That Falls Between Two Known Scores Where Both Known Scores Are Above the Mean Example 6: Finding The Area in a z Distribution That Falls Between Two Known Scores Where One Known Score Is Above the Mean and One Is Below the Mean Example 7: Finding the Area in a z Distribution That Falls Between Two Known Scores Summarizing Scores Through Percentiles
- 21. History Trivia: Karl Pearson to Egon Pearson Key Terms Chapter 4 Practice Problems Chapter 4 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 4 Transforming Raw Scores Into z Scores Transforming z Scores Into T Scores Chapter 5 • Inferential Statistics: The Controlled Experiment, Hypothesis Testing, and the z Distribution Hypothesis Testing in the Controlled Experiment Hypothesis Testing: The Big Decision How the Big Decision Is Made: Back to the z Distribution The Parameter of Major Interest in Hypothesis Testing: The Mean Nondirectional and Directional Alternative Hypotheses A Debate: Retain the Null Hypothesis or Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis The Null Hypothesis as a Nonconservative Beginning The Four Possible Outcomes in Hypothesis Testing 1. Correct Decision: Retain H0 When H0 Is Actually True 2. Type I Error: Reject H0 When H0 Is Actually True 3. Correct Decision: Reject H0 When H0 Is Actually False 4. Type II Error: Retain H0 When H0 Is Actually False Significance Levels Significant and Nonsignificant Findings Trends, and Does God Really Love the .05 Level of Significance More Than the .06 Level? Directional or Nondirectional Alternative Hypotheses: Advantages and Disadvantages Did Nuclear Fusion Occur? Baloney Detection How Reliable Is the Source of the Claim? Does This Source Often Make Similar Claims? Have the Claims Been Verified by Another Source? How Does the Claim Fit With Known Natural Scientific Laws?
- 22. Can the Claim Be Disproven, or Has Only Supportive Evidence Been Sought? Do the Claimants’ Personal Beliefs and Biases Drive Their Conclusions or Vice Versa? Conclusions About Science and Pseudoscience The Most Critical Elements in the Detection of Baloney in Suspicious Studies and Fraudulent Claims Can Statistics Solve Every Problem? Probability The Lady Tasting Tea The Definition of the Probability of an Event The Multiplication Theorem of Probability Combinations Theorem of Probability Permutations Theorem of Probability Fun With Probabilities The Monty Hall Game Gambler’s Fallacy Coda History Trivia: Egon Pearson to Karl Pearson Key Terms Chapter 5 Practice Problems Chapter 5 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 5 Removing a Case From a Data Set Adding a Variable Deleting a Variable Inserting a Variable Moving a Variable Selecting a Particular Condition for Analysis Within a Data Set Copying Selected Cases or Conditions to a New Data Set Chapter 6 • An Introduction to Correlation and Regression Correlation: Use and Abuse A Warning: Correlation Does Not Imply Causation 1. Marijuana Use and Heroin Use Are Positively Correlated 2. Milk Use Is Positively Correlated to Cancer Rates
- 23. 3. Weekly Church Attendance Is Negatively Correlated With Drug Abuse 4. Lead Levels Are Positively Correlated With Antisocial Behavior 5. The Risk of Getting Alzheimer’s Disease Is Negatively Correlated With Smoking Cigarettes 6. Sexual Activity Is Negatively Correlated With Increases in Education 7. An Active Sex Life Is Positively Correlated With Longevity 8. Coffee Drinking Is Negatively Correlated With Suicidal Risk 9. Excessive Drinking and Smoking Causes Women to Be Abused Another Warning: Chance Is Lumpy Correlation and Prediction The Four Common Types of Correlation The Pearson Product–Moment Correlation Coefficient Testing for the Significance of a Correlation Coefficient Obtaining the Critical Values of the t Distribution Step 1: Choose a One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Test of Significance Step 2: Choose the Level of Significance Step 3: Determine the Degrees of Freedom (df) Step 4: Determine Whether the t from the Formula (Called the Derived t) Exceeds the Tabled Critical Values From the t Distribution If the Null Hypothesis Is Rejected Representing the Pearson Correlation Graphically: The Scatterplot Fitting the Points With a Straight Line: The Assumption of a Linear Relationship Interpretation of the Slope of the Best-Fitting Line The Assumption of Homoscedasticity The Coefficient of Determination: How Much One Variable Accounts for Variation in Another Variable—The Interpretation of r2 Quirks in the Interpretation of Significant and Nonsignificant Correlation Coefficients Linear Regression Reading the Regression Line The World Is a Complex Place: Any Single Behavior Is Most Often Caused by Multiple Variables R
- 24. R-Square Adjusted R-Square Final Thoughts About Multiple Regression Analyses: A Warning About the Interpretation of the Significant Beta Coefficients Spearman’s Correlation Significance Test for Spearman’s r Ties in Ranks Point-Biserial Correlation Testing for the Significance of the Point-Biserial Correlation Coefficient Phi (Φ) Correlation Testing for the Significance of Phi History Trivia: Galton to Fisher Key Terms Chapter 6 Practice Problems Chapter 6 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 6 Analyzing the Pearson Product–Moment Correlation Creating a Scatterplot Using the Paste Function in the Syntax Editor Chapter 7 • The t Test for Independent Groups The Statistical Analysis of the Controlled Experiment One t Test but Two Designs Assumptions of the Independent t Test Independent Groups Normality of the Dependent Variable Homogeneity of Variance The Formula for the Independent t Test You Must Remember This! An Overview of Hypothesis Testing With the t Test What Does the t Test Do? Components of the t Test Formula What If the Two Variances Are Radically Different From One Another? A Computational Example Steps in the t Test Formula
- 25. Testing the Null Hypothesis Steps in Determining Significance When H0 Has Been Rejected Marginal Significance The Power of a Statistical Test Effect Size The Correlation Coefficient of Effect Size Another Measure of Effect Size: Cohen’s d Confidence Intervals Estimating the Standard Error History Trivia: Gosset and Guinness Brewery Key Terms Chapter 7 Practice Problems Chapter 7 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 7 Conducting a t Test for Independent Groups Interpreting a t Test for Independent Groups Conducting a t Test for Independent Groups for a Different Variable Interpreting a t Test for Independent Groups for a Different Variable Chapter 8 • The t Test for Dependent Groups Variations on the Controlled Experiment Design 1 Example of Design 1 Design 2 Example of Design 2 Design 3 Example of Design 3 Assumptions of the Dependent t Test Why the Dependent t Test May Be More Powerful Than the Independent t Test How to Increase the Power of a t Test
- 26. Drawbacks of the Dependent t Test Designs One-Tailed or Two-Tailed Tests of Significance Hypothesis Testing and the Dependent t Test: Design 1 Design 1 (Same Participants or Repeated Measures): A Computational Example Determination of Effect Size Design 2 (Matched Pairs): A Computational Example Determination of Effect Size Design 3 (Same Participants and Balanced Presentation): A Computational Example Determination of Effect Size History Trivia: Fisher to Pearson Key Terms Chapter 8 Practice Problems Chapter 8 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 8 Conducting a t Test for Dependent Groups Interpreting a t Test for Dependent Groups Chapter 9 • Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): One-Factor Completely Randomized Design A Limitation of Multiple t Tests and a Solution The Equally Unacceptable Bonferroni Solution The Acceptable Solution: An Analysis of Variance The Null and Alternative Hypotheses in ANOVA The Beauty and Elegance of the F Test Statistic The F Ratio How Can There Be Two Different Estimates of Within-Groups Variance? ANOVA Designs ANOVA Assumptions Pragmatic Overview What a Significant ANOVA Indicates A Computational Example Degrees of Freedom for the Numerator
- 27. Degrees of Freedom for the Denominator Determining Effect Size in ANOVA: Omega Squared (ω2) Another Measure of Effect Size: Eta (ηη) History Trivia: Gosset to Fisher Key Terms Chapter 9 Practice Problems Chapter 9 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 9 Required Data Downloading the Data Set to Your Desktop Conducting a One-Factor Completely Randomized ANOVA Interpreting a One-Factor Completely Randomized ANOVA Chapter 10 • After a Significant ANOVA: Multiple Comparison Tests Conceptual Overview of Tukey’s Test Computation of Tukey’s HSD Test What to Do If the Number of Error Degrees of Freedom Is Not Listed in the Table of Tukey’s q Values Determining What It All Means Warning! On the Importance of Nonsignificant Mean Differences Final Results of ANOVA Quirks in Interpretation Tukey’s With Unequal Ns Key Terms Chapter 10 Practice Problems Chapter 10 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 10 Required Data Downloading the Data Set to Your Desktop Conducting a Multiple Comparison Test Interpreting a Multiple Comparison Test Conducting a Multiple Comparison Test for Another Variable Interpreting a Multiple Comparison Test for Another Variable Chapter 11 • Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): One-Factor Repeated- Measures Design
- 28. The Repeated-Measures ANOVA Assumptions of the One-Factor Repeated-Measures ANOVA Computational Example Determining Effect Size in ANOVA Key Terms Chapter 11 Practice Problems Chapter 11 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 11 Required Data Downloading the Data Set to Your Desktop Conducting a One-Factor Repeated-Measures Design ANOVA Interpreting a One-Factor Repeated-Measures Design ANOVA Chapter 12 • Factorial ANOVA: Two-Factor Completely Randomized Design Factorial Designs The Most Important Feature of a Factorial Design: The Interaction Fixed and Random Effects and In Situ Designs The Null Hypotheses in a Two-Factor ANOVA Assumptions and Unequal Numbers of Participants Computational Example Computation of the First Main Effect Computation of the Second Main Effect Computation of the Interaction Between the Two Main Effects Interpretation of the Results Key Terms Chapter 12 Practice Problems Chapter 12 Test Yourself Problems SPSS Lesson 12 Required Data Downloading the Data Set to Your Desktop Conducting an ANOVA Two-Factor Completely Randomized Design Interpreting an ANOVA Two-Factor Completely Randomized Design Chapter 13 • Post Hoc Analysis of Factorial ANOVA
- 29. Main Effect Interpretation: Gender Why a Multiple Comparison Test Is Unnecessary for a Two-Level Main Effect, and When Is a Multiple Comparison Test Necessary? Main Effect: Age Levels Multiple Comparison Test for the Main Effect for Age Warning: Limit Your Main Effect Conclusions When the Interaction Is Significant Multiple Comparison Tests Interpretation of the Interaction Effect For the ADHD Men For the ADHD Women ADHD Men Versus ADHD Women Final Summary Writing Up the Results Journal Style Language to Avoid Exploring the Possible Outcomes in a Two-Factor ANOVA Determining Effect Size in a Two-Factor ANOVA History Trivia: Fisher and Smoking Key Terms Chapter 13 Practice Problems Chapter 13 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 13 Required Data Downloading the Data Set to Your Desktop Conducting a Post Hoc Analysis of Factorial ANOVA Interpreting a Post Hoc Analysis of Factorial ANOVA for the Main Effect Conducting a Post Hoc Analysis of a Significant Interaction in Factorial ANOVA With a Group Variable Interpreting a Post Hoc Analysis of a Significant Interaction in Factorial ANOVA With a Group Variable Chapter 14 • Factorial ANOVA: Additional Designs The Split-Plot Design Overview of the Split-Plot ANOVA Computational Example
- 30. Main Effect: Social Facilitation Main Effect: Trials Interaction: Social Facilitation × Trials Two-Factor ANOVA: Repeated Measures on Both Factors Design Overview of the Repeated-Measures ANOVA Computational Example Key Terms Chapter 14 Practice Problems Chapter 14 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 14 Required Data Downloading the Data Set to Your Desktop Conducting a Split-Plot ANOVA A Second Two-Factor ANOVA Design in SPSS Required Data Conducting a Repeated-Measures ANOVA Chapter 15 • Nonparametric Statistics: The Chi-Square Test and Other Nonparametric Tests Overview of the Purpose of Chi-Square Overview of Chi-Square Designs Chi-Square Test: Two-Cell Design (Equal Probabilities Type) Computation of the Two-Cell Design The Chi-Square Distribution Assumptions of the Chi-Square Test Chi-Square Test: Two-Cell Design (Different Probabilities Type) Computation of the Two-Cell Design Interpreting a Significant Chi-Square Test for a Newspaper Chi-Square Test: Three-Cell Experiment (Equal Probabilities Type) Computation of the Three-Cell Design Chi-Square Test: Two-by-Two Design Computation of the Two-by-Two Design What to Do After a Chi-Square Test Is Significant When Cell Frequencies Are Less Than 5 Revisited
- 31. Other Nonparametric Tests Mann–Whitney U Test Wilcoxon Test for Two Dependent Groups History Trivia: Pearson and Biometrika Key Terms Chapter 15 Practice Problems Chapter 15 Test Yourself Questions SPSS Lesson 15 Building a Data Set for a Chi-Square Test Conducting a Chi-Square Test Interpreting a Chi-Square Test Chapter 16 • Other Statistical Topics, Parameters, and Tests Big Data Health Science Statistics Test Characteristics Risk Assessment Parameters of Mortality and Morbidity Additional Statistical Analyses and Multivariate Statistics Analysis of Covariance Multivariate Analysis of Variance Multivariate Analysis of Covariance Factor Analysis Multiple Regression Structural Equation Modeling Canonical Correlation Cluster Analysis Linear Discriminant Function Analysis A Summary of Multivariate Statistics Coda Key Terms Chapter 16 Practice Problems Chapter 16 Test Yourself Questions Appendix A: z Distribution Appendix B: t Distribution
- 32. Appendix C: Spearman’s Correlation Appendix D: Chi-Square χ2 Distribution Appendix E: F Distribution Appendix F: Tukey’s Table Appendix G: Mann–Whitney U Critical Values Appendix H: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test Critical Values Appendix I: Answers to Odd-Numbered Test Yourself Questions Glossary References Index
- 33. PREFACE One of the best teachers I had as an undergraduate was my introductory statistics professor. I do not remember being overly fond of the discipline of statistics, but I liked his enthusiasm for his subject matter, his applications of what we learned to the real world, and his professionalism. I later had a small crush on one of the “older” psychology graduate students, who taught an advanced undergraduate statistics course. I took three more required statistics classes as a psychology graduate student myself and then two more elective statistics classes. Yet, I still did not see myself as particularly interested in teaching statistics until my fourth year as a professor, when another professor’s resignation meant that someone needed to volunteer to teach undergraduate statistics. I quickly fell in love with teaching statistics to undergraduates. I finally saw myself how statistics helps people make informed decisions. I also realized how easy it was to teach statistics badly and how much more difficult it was to make complex concepts easily understood by undergraduates who either feared statistics or had heard horror stories from other students about how awful statistics classes were. Reducing students’ fears and showing them how interesting a statistics course could be became my mission, and I realized I loved it. It became half of my teaching load each year, and I was rewarded with three outstanding teaching awards over the next 11 years, including the University of Colorado’s lifetime title, Presidential Teaching Scholar. I had also been gathering notes since my first graduate statistics class on how better to present statistical tests and statistical concepts. Thus, when I first formally taught a statistics class, I was armed with a packet of notes, which ultimately became the first edition of this statistics book. I decided I would eliminate all mathematical proofs and would present all calculations in clearly defined steps, thereby reducing complex formulas. Students only “thought” they hated statistics, I decided. What they really hated were the stories about bad statistics teachers. What they hated was a teacher who taught to only 5% of the class (those who got the ideas right away), which ironically was the 5% who could have learned the material without a teacher. I decided that students could actually love statistics or, at least, not mind statistics. For
- 34. example, people talk about how many home runs a player has hit, who is second on such a list, how many marriages someone has had, how many children a couple have, how many grandchildren they have, and many more statistics of everyday life that actually enhance our appreciation of life. Furthermore, even if some of my students never run a statistical test after taking the course, those students and their families will always be consumers of statistics. They will buy cars, houses, stocks, and prescription drugs, and they will make all kinds of other decisions that have been based on someone using or misusing statistics. Thus, I tell my students each semester that I want them to be able to evaluate the statistical decisions of other people. I want them to use statistical principles to make informed decisions throughout their lives. However, I am not naïve. I added and maintained a section in the book noting that sometimes in life we need to make decisions based on our intuition or what is in our hearts, and we cannot rely on statistics. Unfortunately, it is now truer than ever that people deceive, propagandize, and lie with statistics or even deny statistical methods. I recently read something from a political pundit who disparagingly wrote, “Some people are data driven.” I admit that good hypotheses and theories are valuable, but what else except data would drive the support or rejection of an idea? And finally, I have had the wonderful opportunity to improve my book again with a fourth edition, and I have relished this work as well. I have now taught statistics for 39 years, and I still look forward to my first day in class and every subsequent day. I love making the complex simple. I love seeing students finally understand statistical reasoning and seeing those students apply those ideas to their lives. What’s New in the Fourth Edition Each and every paragraph has been reviewed for timeliness and accuracy, and there are new entries and updated studies throughout. In addition to practice problems, every chapter now has a set of test questions to aid students and professors alike. In Chapter 1, the “nocebo effect” (expecting bad things to happen) has been added to the placebo effect discussion. The story of Nobel Prize winner Kary Mullis’s difficulties in publishing his Nobel Prize-winning idea and the story of the proliferation of predatory journals have also been added. Additional examples for rounding numbers and determining percentages also
- 35. appear in Chapter 1. Chapter 5 now has a “Fun With Probabilities” section with two provocative examples: one about determining the probability of the sex of children and the other about the classic and often highly annoying Monty Hall game. The section on linear regression in Chapter 6 has been updated with a warning about the interpretation of standardized beta coefficients and a possible solution to that problem. The example for Spearman’s correlation has been updated with my personality disorder research about world dictators. Chapter 15 discusses two additional nonparametric tests: the Mann–Whitney U test for two independent groups and the Wilcoxon test for two dependent groups. Chapter 16 contains an interesting new section on the nature of “big data” and its four Vs: volume, velocity, variety, and veracity.
- 36. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank my undergraduate students over the years for their curiosity and their many questions, which have helped shape this book. I also thank the many graduate students who have also helped me revise and correct its various editions, particularly Lee Overmann and Jim Hicks for their help on the third edition and Victoria Rowe and Tara Dieringer for their help on the fourth edition. SAGE and I also thank the following reviewers for their contributions to this edition: Derrick Michael Bryan, Department of Sociology, Morehouse College; Martin Campbell, Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of St. Andrews; Abby Coats, Department of Psychology, Westminster College; Lynn DeSpain, School of Professional Studies, Regis University; and Andrew Zekeri, Department of Psychology and Sociology, Tuskegee University.
- 37. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Frederick L. Coolidge received his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in psychology at the University of Florida. He completed a 2-year postdoctoral fellowship in clinical neuropsychology at Shands Teaching Hospital in Gainesville, Florida. He has been awarded three Fulbright Fellowships to India (1987, 1992, and 2005). He has also received three teaching awards at the University of Colorado, Colorado Springs (UCCS; 1984, 1987, and 1992), including the lifetime title of University of Colorado Presidential Teaching Scholar. He has received two faculty excellence in research awards at the University of Colorado (2005 and 2007). In 2015, he served as a Senior Visiting Scholar at the University of Oxford, Keble College. He also co- founded the UCCS Center for Cognitive Archaeology and serves as its co-director. Professor Coolidge conducts research in cognitive archaeology, evolutionary psychology, behavior genetics, and lifespan personality and neuropsychological assessment. He has published this work in Behavior Genetics, Developmental Neuropsychology, Journal of Personality Disorders, Journal of Clinical Geropsychology, Current Anthropology, Cambridge Archaeological Journal, Journal of Human Evolution, Journal of Anthropological Research, and other journals. His enhanced working memory theory (with archaeologist Thomas Wynn) about the evolution of modern thinking was a featured article in the journal Science in 2010. Professor Coolidge’s hobbies include reading, traveling, collecting (like Sigmund Freud), bicycling, playing music, camping with his brother on deserted islands in the Bahamas, husbanding, gardening, and grandfathering. Other books by Professor Frederick L. Coolidge Evolutionary Neuropsychology (2020) Squeezing Minds from Stones (2019)
- 38. The Rise of Homo sapiens: The Evolution of Modern Thinking (2018) Cognitive Models in Palaeolithic Archaeology (2016) Denken wie ein Neandertaler (German edition; 2013) How to Think Like a Neandertal (2012) Cognitive Archaeology and Human Evolution (2009) Dream Interpretation as a Psychotherapeutic Technique (2006) Personality Disorders and Older Adults (2006) Memory Consolidation as a Function of Sleep and the Circadian Rhythm (1974/2018)
- 39. 1 A GENTLE INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1 GOALS Understand the general purposes of statistics Understand the various roles of a statistician Learn the differences and similarities between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics Understand how the discipline of statistics allows the creation of principled arguments Review eight essential questions of any survey or study Understand the differences between experimental control and statistical control Develop an appreciation for good and bad experimental designs Learn four common types of measurement scales Recognize and use common statistical symbols The words “DON’T PANIC” appear on the cover of the book The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Perhaps it may be appropriate for some of you to invoke these words as you embark on a course in statistics. However, be assured that this course and materials are prepared with a different philosophy in mind, which is that statistics should help you understand the world around you and help you make better informed decisions. Unfortunately, statistics may be legendary for driving sane people mad or, less dramatically, causing undue anxiety in the hearts of countless college students. However, statistics is simply the science of the organization and conceptual understanding of groups of numbers and
- 40. making decisions from them. By converting our world to numbers, statistics helps us understand our world in a quick and efficient way. It also helps us make conceptual sense so that we might be able to communicate this information about our world to others. More important, just as in the practice of logic, statistics allows us to make arguments based on established and rational principles; thus, it can promote wise and informed decision making. Like any other scientific discipline, statistics also has its own language, and it will be important for you to learn many new terms and symbols and to see how some common words that you already know may have very different meanings in a statistical context. HOW MUCH MATH DO I NEED TO DO STATISTICS? Can you add, subtract, multiply, and divide with the help of a calculator? If you answered yes (even if you are slow at the calculations), then you can handle statistics. If you answered no, then you should brush up on your basic math and simple algebra skills. Statistics is not really about math. In fact, some mathematicians secretly revel in the fact that their science may have little relevance to the real world. The science of statistics, on the other hand, is actually based on decision-making processes, and so statistics must make conceptual sense. Most of the statistical procedures presented in this course can also be performed using specially designed computer software programs such as SPSS (www.spss.com). Each chapter in this book has specific SPSS instructions to perform the analyses in that chapter. Programs such as SPSS make it easy to perform statistical calculations, and they do so with blazing speed. However, these programs provide very little or no explanation for the subsequent output, and that is at least one of the purposes of this course. THE GENERAL PURPOSE OF STATISTICS: UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD A group of numbers in mathematics is called a set, but in statistics this
- 41. group is more frequently called data (a single number is called a datum). Typically, the numbers themselves represent scores on some test, or they might represent the number of people who show up at some event. It is the purpose of statistics to take all these numbers or data and present them in a more efficient way. An even more important use of statistics, contrary to some people’s beliefs, is to present these data in a more comprehensible way. People who obfuscate (i.e., bewilder or confuse) with statistics are not really representative of the typical and ethical statistician. This course will also provide you with some protection against the attempts of some people and their statisticians who try to convince you that a product works when it really does not or that a product is superior to another product when it really is not. Another Purpose of Statistics: Making an Argument or a Decision People often use statistics to support their opinions. People concerned with reducing the incidence of lung cancer use statistics to argue that cigarette smoking increases the likelihood of lung cancer. Car and truck makers use statistics to show the reliability of their cars and trucks. It has been said that being a statistician is like being an honest lawyer. One can use statistics to sell a product, advance an argument, support an opinion, elect a candidate, improve societal conditions, and so on. Because clearly presented statistical arguments can be so powerful—say, compared with someone else’s simple unsupported opinion—the science of statistics can become a very important component of societal change. WHAT IS A STATISTICIAN? Although many of you would probably rather sit on a tack than become a statistician, imagine combining the best aspects of the careers of a curious detective, an honest attorney, and a good storyteller. Well, that is often the job of a statistician, according to contemporary statistician Robert P. Abelson (1928–2005; see Abelson, 1995). Let us examine the critical elements of these roles in detail.
- 42. http://www.clipart.com/en/close-up?o=3982329 Source: Clipart.com. One Role: The Curious Detective The curious detective knows a crime has been committed and examines clues or evidence at the scene of the crime. Based on this evidence, the detective develops a suspicion about a suspect who may have committed the crime. In a parallel way, a statistician develops suspicions about suspects or causative agents such as which product is best, what causes Alzheimer’s disease, and how music may or may not affect purchasing behavior. In the case of Alzheimer’s disease, the patients’ lives are quantified into numbers (data). The data become the statistician’s clues or evidence, and the experimental design (how the data were collected) is the crime scene. As you already know, evidence without a crime scene is virtually useless, and equally useless are data without knowing how they were collected. Health professionals who can analyze these data statistically can subsequently make decisions about causative agents (e.g., does aluminum in food products cause Alzheimer’s disease?) and choose appropriate interventions and treatments. A good detective is also a skeptic. When other detectives initially share their suspicions about a suspect, good detectives typically reserve judgment until they have reviewed the evidence and observed the scene of the crime. Statisticians are similar in that they are not swayed by popular opinion. They should not be swayed by potential profits or losses. Statisticians examine the data and experimental design and develop their own hypotheses (educated guesses) about the effectiveness or lack of effectiveness of some procedure or product. Statisticians also have the full capability of developing their own research designs (based on
- 43. established procedures) and testing their own hypotheses. Ethical statisticians are clearly a majority. It is unusual to find cases of clear fraud in the world of statistics, although they sometimes occur. More often, statisticians are like regular people; they can sometimes be unconsciously swayed by fame, money, loyalties, and prior beliefs. Therefore, it is important to thoroughly learn the fundamental statistical principles in this course. As noted earlier, even if you do not become a producer of statistics, you and your family, friends, and relatives will always be consumers of statistics (e.g., when you purchase any product or prescription drug); thus, it is important to understand how statistics are created and how they may be manipulated intentionally, unintentionally, or fraudulently. There is the cliché that if something seems too good to be true, then it might not be true. This cliché also holds in the world of statistics. Interestingly, however, it might not be the resulting statistics that make something appear too good to be true, but rather it may be how the statistics were gathered, also known as the experimental design. This course will present both the principles of statistics and their accompanying experimental designs. And as you will soon learn, the power of the experimental design is greater than the power of the statistical analysis. http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-3118029-justice-scale-and- gavel.php Another Role: The Honest Attorney An honest attorney takes the facts of a case and creates a legal argument before a judge and jury. The attorney becomes an advocate for a particular position or a most likely scenario. Frequently, the facts might not form a coherent whole or the facts may have alternative explanations. Statisticians are similar in that they examine data and try to come up with
- 44. a reasonable or likely explanation for why the data occurred. Ideally, statisticians are not passive people but rather active theoreticians (i.e., scientists). Scientists are curious. They have an idea about the nature of life or reality. They wonder about relationships among variables, for example, what causes a particular disease, why people buy this brand as opposed to that brand, and whether a product is helpful or harmful. These hypotheses are tested through experiments or surveys. The results of an experiment or survey are quantified (turned into numbers). Statisticians then become attorneys when they honestly determine whether they feel the data support their original suspicions or hypotheses. If the data do support the original hypothesis, then statisticians argue their case (study) on behalf of their hypothesis before a judge (journal editor, administrator, etc.). In situations where statisticians wish to publish the results of their findings, they select an appropriate journal and send the article and a letter of justification to the editor of the journal. The journal editor then sends the article to experts in that field of study (also known as peer reviewers). The reviewers suggest changes or modifications if necessary. They are also often asked to decide whether the study is worthy of publication. If the researcher has convinced the editor and the peer reviewers that this hypothesis is the most likely explanation for the data, then the study may be published. The time between submission and the actual publication of the article will typically take between 6 months and 2 years, and this time period is known as publication lag. There are, of course, unscrupulous or naive attorneys, and sadly too, as noted earlier, there are also unscrupulous or naive statisticians. These types either consciously or unconsciously force the facts or data to fit their hypothesis. In the worst cases, they may ignore other facts not flattering to their case or may even make up their data. In science, although there are a few outright cases of fraud, it is more often that we see data forced into a particular interpretation because of a strong prior belief. In these cases, the role of a skeptical detective comes into play. We may ask ourselves, are these data too good to be true? Are there alternative explanations? Fortunately, in science—and this is where we so strongly differ from a courtroom—our hypothesis will not be decided by one simple study. It is said that we do not “prove” the truth or falsity of any hypothesis. It takes a series of studies, called replication, to show the usefulness of a hypothesis. A series of studies that fails to support a
- 45. hypothesis will have the effect of making the hypothesis fall into disuse. There was an old psychological theory that body type (fat, skinny, or muscular) was associated with specific personality traits (happy, anxious, or assertive), but a vast series of studies found very little support for the original hypothesis. The hypothesis was not disproven in any absolute sense, but it fell into disuse among scientists and in their scientific journals. Ironically, this did not “kill” the scientifically discredited body- type theory given that it still lives in popular but unscientific monthly magazines. A Final Role: A Good Storyteller Source: The Storyteller by Mats Rehnman, © 1992. Used with the kind permission of the artist. Find out more about the fine art of storytelling by visiting the artist at www.Facebook.com/mats.rehnman. Storytelling is an art. When we love or hate a book or a movie, we are frequently responding to how well the story was told. I once read a story about the making of steel. Now, steelmaking is not high (or even medium) on my list of interesting topics, but the writer unwound such an interesting and dramatic story that my attention was completely riveted. By parallel, it is not enough for a statistician to be a curious detective and an honest attorney. He or she must also be a good storyteller. A statistician’s hypothesis may be the real one, but the statistician must state his or her case clearly and in a convincing style. Thus, a successful statistician must be able to articulate what was found in an experiment, why this finding is important and to whom, and what the experiment may mean for the future of the human race (okay, I may be exaggerating on this latter point). Articulation (good storytelling) may be one of the most critical aspects of being a good statistician and scientist. In fact, good storytelling may be one of the most important roles in the history of humankind (see Arsuaga, 2002, and Sugiyama, 2001). There are many examples of good storytelling throughout science. The
- 46. origin of the universe makes a very fascinating story. Currently, there are at least two somewhat rival theories (theories are bigger and grander than hypotheses, but essentially theories, at their hearts, are no more than educated guesses); in one story a Supreme Being created the universe from nothingness in 6 days, and in the other story, the big bang, the universe started as a singular point that exploded to create the universe. Note that each theory has a fascinating story associated with it. One problem with both stories is that we are trying to explain how something came from nothing, which is a logical contradiction. It has been suggested that the object of a myth is to provide some logical explanation for overcoming a contradiction; however, this may be an impossible task when the contradiction is real. Still, both of these theories remain very popular among laypeople and scientists alike, in part because they make interesting, provocative, and fascinating stories. Science is replete with interesting stories. Even the reproductive behavior of Planaria or the making of steel can be told in an interesting and convincing manner (i.e., any topic has the potential to make a good story). Does our current society reward someone who tells a good story? Of course! For example, who is reportedly the richest woman in England? It is said to be J. K. Rowling, the person who told the world the story of a boy, Harry Potter, who went off to wizardry school. LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE STATISTICIANS As we proceed with this course in statistics, you may come to realize that there is considerable leeway in the way data are investigated (called the experimental methodology or experimental design) and in the way data are tabulated and reported (called statistical analyses). There appear to be two camps: the liberals and the conservatives. Just as in politics, neither position is entirely correct given that both philosophies have their advantages and disadvantages. Scientists as a whole are generally conservative, and because statisticians are scientists, they too are conservative as a general rule. Conservative statisticians stick with the tried and true. They prefer conventional rules and regulations. They design experiments in
- 47. traditional ways, and they interpret and report their interpretations in the same conventional fashion. This position is not as stodgy as it may first appear to be. The conservative position has the advantage of being more readily accepted by the scientific community (including journal editors and peer reviewers). If one sticks to the rules and accepted statistical conventions and one argues successfully according to these same rules and conventions, then there is typically a much greater likelihood that the findings will be accepted and published and will receive attention from the scientific community. Conservative statisticians are very careful in their interpretation of their data. They guard against chance playing a role in their findings by rejecting any findings or treatment effects that are small in nature. Their findings must be very clear, or their treatment effect (e.g., from a new drug) must be very large, for them to conclude that their data are real, and consequently, there is a very low probability that pure chance could account for their findings. The disadvantages of the conservative statistical position are that new investigative research methods, creative statistical analyses, and radical conclusions are avoided. For example, in the real world, sometimes new drug treatments are somewhat effective but not on everyone, or the new drug treatment may work on nearly everyone, but the improvement is modest or marginal. By always guarding so strongly against chance, conservative statisticians frequently end up in the position of “throwing out the baby with the bathwater.” They may end up concluding that their findings are simply due to chance when in reality something is actually happening in the data that is not due to chance. Liberal statisticians are in a freer position. They may apply exciting new methods to investigate a hypothesis and apply new methods of statistically analyzing their data. Liberal statisticians are not afraid to flout the accepted scientific statistical conventions. The drawback to this position is that scientists, as a whole, are like people in general. Many of us initially tend to fear new ways of doing things. Thus, liberal statisticians may have difficulty in getting their results published in standard scientific journals. They will often be criticized on the sole grounds of investigating something in a different way and not for their actual results or conclusions. In addition, there are other real dangers from being statistical liberals. Inherent in this position is that they are more willing than conservative statisticians to view small improvements
- 48. as real treatment effects. In this way, liberal statisticians may be more likely to discover a new and effective treatment. However, the danger is that they are more likely to call a chance finding a real finding. If scientists are too hasty or too readily jump to conclusions, then the consequences of their actions can be deadly or even worse. What can be worse than deadly? Well, consider a tranquilizer called thalidomide during the 1960s. Although there were no consequences for men, more than 10,000 babies were born to women who took thalidomide during pregnancy, and the babies were born alive but without hands or feet. Thus, scientific liberalism has its advantages (new, innovative, or creative) and its disadvantages (it may be perceived as scary, flashy, or bizarre or have results that are deadly or even worse). Neither position is a completely comfortable one for statisticians. This book will teach you the conservative rules and conventions. It will also encourage you to think of alternative ways of exploring your data. But remember, as in life, no position is a position, and any position involves consequences. DESCRIPTIVE AND INFERENTIAL STATISTICS The most crucial aspect of applying statistics consists of analyzing the data in such a way as to obtain a more efficient and comprehensive summary of the overall results. To achieve these goals, statistics is divided into two areas: descriptive and inferential statistics. At the outset, do not worry about the distinction between them too much; the areas they cover overlap, and descriptive statistics may be viewed as building blocks for the more complicated inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics is historically the older of these two areas. It involves measuring data using graphs, tables, and basic descriptions of numbers such as averages and means. These universally accepted descriptions of numbers are called parameters, and the most popular and important of the parameters are the mean and standard deviation (which we will discuss in detail in Chapter 3). Inferential statistics is a relatively newer area that involves making guesses (inferences) about a large group of data (called the population) from a smaller group of data (called the sample). The population is
- 49. defined as the entire collection or set of objects, people, or events that we are interested in studying. Interestingly, statisticians rarely deal with the population because, typically, the number of objects that meet the criterion for being in the population is too large (e.g., taxpayers in the United States), it is financially unfeasible to measure such a group, and/or we wish to apply the results to people who are not yet in the population but will be in the future. Thus, statisticians use a sample drawn from the population. For our inferences about our sample to be representative of the population, statisticians have two suggestions. First, the sample should be randomly drawn from the population. The concept of a random sample means that every datum or person in the population has an equal chance of being chosen for the sample. Second, the sample should be large relative to the population. We will see later that the latter suggestion for sample size will change depending on whether we are conducting survey research or controlled experiments. Statistical studies are often reported as being based on stratified samples. A stratified sample means that objects are included in the sample in proportion to their frequency in the subgroups that make up the population. For example, if it was reported that a study was conducted on a religious beliefs stratified sample of the U.S. population, then the ratios of religious beliefs in the sample would be 47% Protestant, 23% no religious beliefs (agnostic, atheist, or none), 21% Catholic, 6% non- Christian (Muslim, Hindu, Jewish, Buddhist), and 3% other Christian churches (Mormon or Jehovah’s Witness). Again, large samples, random samples, and stratified samples help us make inferences that are more than likely to be representative of the population that we are studying. EXPERIMENTS ARE DESIGNED TO TEST THEORIES AND HYPOTHESES A theory can be considered a group of general propositions that attempts to explain some phenomenon. Typically, theories are also grand; that is, they tend to account for something major or important such as theories of supply and demand, how children acquire language, or how the universe began. A good theory should provoke people to think. A good theory should also be able to generate testable propositions. These propositions are actually guesses about the way things should be if the theory is
- 50. Discovering Diverse Content Through Random Scribd Documents
- 51. It's past the size of dreaming: nature wants stuff To vie strange forms with fancy; yet, to imagine An Antony, were nature's piece 'gainst fancy, Condemning shadows quite." Not of an Antony should we speak thus now-a-days, but of a Napoleon in the world of action, of a Michael Angelo, a Beethoven, or a Shakespeare in the world of art. But the figure of Antony had to be one which made such a transfiguration possible in order that it might be worthy to stand by the side of hers who is the queen of beauty, the very genius of love. Pascal says in his Pensées: "Si le nez de Cléopâtre eût été plus court, toute la face de la terre aurait changé." But her nose was, as the old coins show us, exactly what it ought to have been; and in Shakespeare we feel that she is not only beauty itself, but charm, except in one single scene, where the news of Antony's marriage throws her into a paroxysm of unbeautiful rage. Her charm is of the sense-intoxicating kind, and she has, by study and art, developed those powers of attraction which she possessed from the outset, till she has become inexhaustible in inventiveness and variety. She is the woman who has passed from hand to hand, from her husband and brother to Pompey, from Pompey to the great Cæsar, from Cæsar to countless others. She is the courtesan by temperament, but none the less does she possess the genius for a single, undivided love. She, like Antony, is complex, and being a woman, she is more so than he. Vir duplex, femina triplex. From the beginning and almost to the end of the tragedy she plays the part of the great coquette. What she says and does is for long only the outcome of the coquette's desire and power to captivate by incalculable caprices. She asks where Antony is, and sends for him (i. 2). He comes. She exclaims: "We will not look upon him," and goes. Presently his absence irks her, and again she sends a messenger to remind him of her and keep him in play (i. 3)—
- 52. "If you find him sad, Say I am dancing; if in mirth, report That I am sudden sick ..." He learns of his wife's death. She would have been beside herself if he had shown grief, but he speaks with coldness of the loss, and she attacks him because of this:— "Where be the sacred vials thou shouldst fill With sorrowful water? Now I see, I see In Fulvia's death how mine received shall be." This incalculability, this capriciousness of hers extends to the smallest matters. She invites Mardian to play a game of billiards with her (an amusing anachronism), and, finding him ready, she turns him off with: "I'll none now." But all this mutability does not exclude in her the most real, most passionate love for Antony. The best proof of its strength is the way in which she speaks of him when he is absent (i. 5):— "O Charmian! Where think'st thou he is now? Stands he, or sits he? Or does he walk? or is he on his horse? O happy horse, to bear the weight of Antony! Do bravely, horse, for wott'st thou whom thou mov'st? The demi-Atlas of this earth, the arm And burgonet of men." So it is but the truth she is speaking when she tells with what immovable certainty and trust, with what absolute assurance for the future, love filled both her and Antony when they saw each other for the first time (i. 3):— "No going then; Eternity was in our lips and eyes, Bliss in our brows' bent; none our parts so poor, But was a race of heaven."
- 53. Nor is it irony when Enobarbus, in reply to Antony's complaint (i. 2), "She is cunning past man's thought," makes answer, "Alack, sir, no; her passions are made of nothing but the finest part of pure love." This is literally true—only that the love is not pure in the sense of being sublimated or unegoistic, but in the sense of being quintessential erotic emotion, chemically free from all the other elements usually combined with it. And outward circumstances harmonise with the character and vehemence of this passion. He lays the kingdoms of the East at her feet; with reckless prodigality, she lavishes the wealth of Africa on the festivals she holds in his honour. XXVIII THE DARK LADY AS A MODEL—THE FALL OF THE REPUBLIC A WORLD-CATASTROPHE Assuming that it was Shakespeare's design in Antony and Cleopatra, as in King Lear, to evoke the conception of a world-catastrophe, we see that he could not in this play, as in Macbeth or Othello, focus the entire action around the leading characters alone. He could not even make the other characters completely subordinate to them; that would have rendered it impossible for him to give the impression of majestic breadth, of an action embracing half of the then known world, which he wanted for the sake of the concluding effect. He required in the group of figures surrounding Octavius Cæsar, and in the groups round Lepidus, Ventidius, and Sextus Pompeius, a counterpoise to Antony's group. He required the placid beauty and Roman rectitude of Octavia as a contrast to the volatile, intoxicating Egyptian. He required Enobarbus to serve as a sort of chorus and introduce an occasional touch of irony amid the highflown passion of the play. In short, he required a throng of personages, and (in order
- 54. to make us feel that the action was not taking place in some narrow precinct in a corner of Europe, but upon the stage of the world) he required a constant coming and going, sending and receiving of messengers, whose communications are awaited with anxiety, heard with bated breath, and not infrequently alter at one blow the situation of the chief characters. The ambition which characterised Antony's past is what determines his relation to this great world; the love which has now taken such entire possession of him determines his relation to the Egyptian queen, and the consequent loss of all that his ambition had won for him. Whilst in a tragedy like Goethe's Clavigo, ambition plays the part of the tempter, and love is conceived as the good, the legitimate power, here it is love that is reprehensible, ambition that is proclaimed to be the great man's vocation and duty. Thus Antony says (i. 2): "These strong Egyptian fetters I must break, Or lose myself in dotage." We saw that one element of Shakespeare's artist-nature was of use to him in his modelling of the figure of Antony. He himself had ultimately broken his fetters, or rather life had broken them for him; but as he wrote this great drama, he lived through again those years in which he himself had felt and spoken as he now made Antony feel and speak: "A thousand groans, but thinking on thy face, One on another's neck, do witness bear, Thy black is fairest in my judgment's place." —(Sonnet cxxxi.) Day after day that woman now stood before him as his model who had been his life's Cleopatra—she to whom he had written of "lust in action": "Mad in pursuit, and in possession so; Had, having, and in quest to have, extreme;
- 55. A bliss in proof,—and prov'd, a very woe." —(Sonnet cxxix.) He had seen in her an irresistible and degrading Delilah, the Delilah whom De Vigny centuries later anathematised in a famous couplet. [1] He had bewailed, as Antony does now, that his beloved had belonged to many: "If eyes, corrupt by over-partial looks, Be anchor'd in the bay where all men ride, . . . . . . Why should my heart think that a several plot Which my heart knows the wide world's common place?'' —(Sonnet cxxxvii.) He had, like Antony, suffered agonies from the coquetry she would lavish on any one she wanted to win. He had then burst forth in complaint, as Antony in the drama breaks out into frenzy: "Tell me thou lov'st elsewhere; but in my sight, Dear heart, forbear to glance thine eye aside: What need'st thou wound with cunning, when thy might Is more than my o'er-pressed defence can 'bide?" —(Sonnet cxxxix.) Now he no longer upbraided her; now he crowned her with a queenly diadem, and placed her, living, breathing, and in the largest sense true to nature, on that stage which was his world. As in Othello he had made the lover-hero about as old as he was himself at the time he wrote the play, so now it interested him to represent this stately and splendid lover who was no longer young. In the Sonnets he had already dwelt upon his age. He says, for instance, in Sonnet cxxxviii.: "When my love swears that she is made of truth, I do believe her, though I know she lies,
- 56. That she might think me some untutor'd youth, Unlearned in the world's false subtleties. Thus vainly thinking that she thinks me young, Although she knows my days are past the best, Simply I credit her false-speaking tongue." When Antony and Cleopatra perished with each other, she was in her thirty-ninth, he in his fifty-fourth year. She was thus almost three times as old as Juliet, he more than double the age of Romeo. This correspondence with his own age pleases Shakespeare's fancy, and the fact that time has had no power to sear or wither this pair seems to hold them still farther aloof from the ordinary lot of humanity. The traces years have left upon the two have only given them a deeper beauty. All that they themselves in sadness, or others in spite, say to the contrary, signifies nothing. The contrast between their age in years and that which their beauty and passion make for them merely enhances and adds piquancy to the situation. It is in sheer malice that Pompey exclaims (ii. I): "But all the charms of love, Salt Cleopatra, soften thy waned lip!" This means no more than her own description of herself as "wrinkled." And it is on purpose to give the idea of Antony's age, of which in Plutarch there is no indication, that Shakespeare makes him dwell on the mixed colour of his own hair. He says (iii. 9): "My very hairs do mutiny; for the white Reprove the brown for rashness, and they them For fear and doting." In the moment of despair he uses the expression (iii. II): "To the boy Cæsar send this grizzled head." And again, after the last victory, he recurs to the idea in a tone of triumph. Exultingly he addresses Cleopatra (iv. 8): "What, girl! though grey Do something mingle with our younger brown, yet ha' we
- 57. A brain that nourishes our nerves, and can Get goal for goal of youth." With a sure hand Shakespeare has depicted in Antony the mature man's fear of letting a moment pass unutilised: the vehement desire to enjoy before the hour strikes when all enjoyment must cease. Thus Antony says in one of his first speeches (i. I): "Now, for the love of Love and her soft hours.... There's not a minute of our lives should stretch Without some pleasure now." Then he feels the necessity of breaking his bonds. He makes Fulvia's death serve his purpose of gaining Cleopatra's consent to his departure; but even then he is not free. In order to bring out the contrast between Octavius the statesman and Antony the lover, Shakespeare emphasises the fact that Octavius has reports of the political situation brought to him every hour, whilst Antony receives no other daily communication than the regularly arriving letters from Cleopatra which foment the longing that draws him back to Egypt. As a means of allaying the storm and gaining peace to love his queen at leisure, he agrees to marry his opponent's sister, knowing that, when it suits him, he will neglect and repudiate her. Then vengeance overtakes him for having so contemptuously thrown away the empire over more than a third of the civilised world— vengeance for having said as he embraced Cleopatra (i. I): "Let Rome in Tiber melt, and the wide arch Of the ranged empire fall! Here is my space." Rome melts through his fingers. Rome proclaims him a foe to her empire, and declares war against him. And he loses his power, his renown, his whole position, in the defeat which he so contemptibly brings upon himself at Actium. In Cleopatra flight was excusable. Her flight in the drama (which follows Plutarch and tradition) is due to cowardice; in reality it was prompted by tactical, judicious motives. But Antony was in honour bound to stay. He follows her in the tragedy (as in reality) from brainless, contemptible incapacity to
- 58. remain when she has gone; leaving an army of 112,000 men and a fleet of 450 ships in the lurch, without leader or commander. Nine days did his troops await his return, rejecting every proposal of the enemy, incapable of believing in the desertion and flight of the general they admired and trusted. When at last they could no longer resist the conviction that he had sunk his soldier's honour in shame, they went over to Octavius. After this everything turns on the mutual relation of Antony and Cleopatra, and Shakespeare has admirably depicted its ecstasies and its revulsions. Never before had they loved each other so wildly and so rapturously. Now it is not only he who openly calls her "Thou day o' the world!" She answers him with the cry, "Lord of lords! O infinite virtue!" (iv. 8). Yet never before has their mutual distrust been so deep. She, who was at no time really great except in the arts of love and coquetry, has always felt distrustful of him, and yet never distrustful enough; for though she was prepared for a great deal, his marriage with Octavia overwhelmed her. He, knowing her past, knowing how often she has thrown herself away, and understanding her temperament, believes her false to him even when she is innocent, even when, as with Desdemona, only the vaguest of appearances are against her. In the end we sea Antony develop into an Othello. Here and there we come upon something in his character which seems to indicate that Shakespeare had been lately occupied with Macbeth. Cleopatra stimulates Antony's voluptuousness, his sensuality, as Lady Macbeth spurred on her husband's ambition; and Antony fights his last battle with Macbeth's Berserk fury, facing with savage bravery what he knows to be invincibly superior force. But in his emotional life after the disaster of Actium it is Othello whom he more nearly resembles. He causes Octavius's messenger, Thyreus, to be whipped, simply because Cleopatra at parting has allowed him to kiss her hand. When some of her ships take to flight, he immediately believes in an alliance between her and the enemy, and heaps the coarsest invectives upon her, almost worse than those with which
- 59. Othello overwhelms Desdemona. And in his monologue (iv. 10) he raves groundlessly like Othello: "Betray'd I am. O this false soul of Egypt! this grave charm,— Whose eye beck'd forth my wars, and call'd them home, Whose bosom was my crownet, my chief end,— Like a right gipsy, hath, at fast and loose, Beguil'd me to the very heart of loss." They both, though faithless to the rest of the world, meant to be true to each other, but in the hour of trial they place no trust in each other's faithfulness. And all these strong emotions have shaken Antony's judgment. The braver he becomes in his misfortune, the more incapable is he of seeing things as they really are. Enobarbus closes the third act most felicitously with the words: "I see still A diminution in our captain's brain Restores his heart: when valour preys on reason It eats the sword it fights with." To tranquillise Antony's jealous frenzy, Cleopatra, who always finds readiest aid in a lie, sends him the false tidings of her death. In grief over her loss, he falls on his sword and mortally wounds himself. He is carried to her, and dies. She bursts forth: "Noblest of men, woo't die? Hast thou no care of me? shall I abide In this dull world, which in thy absence is No better than a sty?—O! see, my women, The crown o' the earth doth melt." In Shakespeare, however, her first thought is not of dying herself. She endeavours to come to a compromise with Octavius, hands over to him an inventory of her treasures, and tries to trick him out of the larger half. It is only when she has ascertained that nothing, neither admiration for her beauty nor pity for her misfortunes, moves his
- 60. cold sagacity, and that he is determined to exhibit her humiliation to the populace of Rome as one of the spectacles of his triumph, that she lets the worm of Nilus give her her death. In these passages the poet has placed Cleopatra's behaviour in a much more unfavourable light than the Greek historian, whom he follows as far as details are concerned; and he has evidently done so wittingly and purposely, in order to complete his home-thrust at the type of woman whose dangerousness he has embodied in her. In Plutarch all these negotiations with Octavius were a feint to deceive the vigilance with which he thought to prevent her from killing herself. Suicide is her one thought, and he has baulked her in her first attempt. She pretends to cling to her treasures only to delude him into the belief that she still clings to life, and her heroic imposture is successful. Shakespeare, for whom she is ever the quintessence of the she-animal in woman, disparages her intentionally by suppressing the historical explanation of her behavior.[2]. The English critic, Arthur Symons, writes: "Antony and Cleopatra is the most wonderful, I think, of all Shakespeare's plays, and it is so mainly because the figure of Cleopatra is the most wonderful of Shakespeare's women. And not of Shakespeare's women only, but perhaps the most wonderful of women." This is carrying enthusiasm almost too far. But thus much is true: the great attraction of this masterpiece lies in the unique figure of Cleopatra, elaborated as it is with all Shakespeare's human experience and artistic enthusiasm. But the greatness of the world- historic drama proceeds from the genius with which he has entwined the private relations of the two lovers with the course of history and the fate of empires. Just as Antony's ruin results from his connection with Cleopatra, so does the fall of the Roman Republic result from the contact of the simple hardihood of the West with the luxury of the East. Antony is Rome, Cleopatra is the Orient. When he perishes, a prey to the voluptuousness of the East, it seems as though Roman greatness and the Roman Republic expired with him.
- 61. Not Cæsar's ambition, not Cæsar's assassination, but this crumbling to pieces of Roman greatness fourteen years later brings home to us the ultimate fall of the old world-republic, and impresses us with that sense of universal annihilation which in this play, as in King Lear, Shakespeare aims at begetting. This is no tragedy of a domestic, limited nature like the conclusion of Othello; there is no young Fortinbras here, as in Hamlet, giving the promise of brighter and better times to come; the victory of Octavius brings glory to no one and promises nothing. No; the final picture is that which Shakespeare was bent on painting from the moment he felt himself attracted by this great theme—the picture of a world- catastrophe. [1] "Toujours ce compagnon dont le cœur n'est pas sûr, La Femme—enfant malade et douze fois impur." [2] Goethe has a marked imitation of Shakespeare's Cleopatra in the Adelheid of Götz von Berlichingen. And he has placed Weislingen between Adelheid and Maria as Antony stands between Cleopatra and Octavia bound to the former and marrying the latter. BOOK THIRD I DISCORD AND SCORN Out of tune—out of tune!
- 62. Out of tune the instrument whereon so many enthralling melodies had been played—glad and gay, plaintive or resentful, full of love and full of sorrow. Out of tune the mind which had felt so keenly, thought so deeply, spoken so temperately, and stood so firmly "midst passion's whirlpool, storm, and whirlwind." His life's philosophy has become a disgust of life, his melancholy seeks the darkest side of all things, his mirth is grown to bitter scorn, and his wit is without shame. There was a time when all before his eyes was green—vernally green, life's own lush, unfaded colour. This was followed by a period of gloom, during which he watched the shadows of life spread over the bright and beautiful, blotting out their colours. Now it is black, and worse than black; he sees the base mire cover the earth with its filth, and heeds how it fills the air with its stench. Shakespeare had come to the end of his first great circumnavigation of life and human nature: an immense disillusionment was the result. Expectation and disappointment, yearning and content, life's gladness and holiday-making, battle mood and triumph, inspired wrath and desperate vehemence—all that once had thrilled him is now fused and lost in contempt. Disdain has become a persistent mood, and scorn of mankind flows with the blood in his veins. Scorn for princes and people; for heroes, who are but fellow-brawlers and braggarts after all; and for artists, who are but flatterers and parasites seeking possible patrons. Scorn for old age, in whose venerableness he sees only the unction or hypocrisy of an old twaddler. Scorn for youth, wherein he sees but profligacy, slackness, and gullibility, while all enthusiasts are impostors, and all idealists fools. Men are either coarse and unprincipled, or so weakly sentimental as to be under a woman's thumb; and woman's distinguishing qualities are feebleness, voluptuousness, fickleness, and falsehood; a fool he who trusts himself to them or lets his actions depend upon them. This mood has been growing on Shakespeare for some time. We have felt it grow. It shows first in Hamlet, but is harmless as yet in
- 63. comparison with the scathing bitterness of later times. There is a breath, a whisper, in the "Frailty, thy name is Woman!" addressed to Hamlet's mother. Ophelia is rather futile than specially weak; she is never false, still less faithless. Even the inconstant Queen Gertrude can scarcely be called false. There was malignity and temper in that challenge of moral hypocrisy, Measure for Measure, and enough earnestness to overpower the comic, although not sufficient bitterness to make the peaceful conclusion impossible. The tragedy of Macbeth was brought to a consoling end; the powers of good triumphed at the last. There was only one malign character in Othello, evil indeed, but solitary. Othello, Desdemona, Emilia, &c., are all good at heart. There is no bitterness in Lear, no scorn of mankind, but sympathy and a wonderful compassion pervading and dominating all. Shakespeare has divided his own Ego among the characters of this play, in order to share with them the miseries and suffering of life on this earth; he has not gathered himself up to judge and despise. It is from thenceforward that the undertone of contempt first begins to be felt. A period of some years follows, in which his being narrows and concentrates itself upon an abhorrence of human nature, accompanied, so far as we can judge, by a correspondingly enormous self-esteem. It is as though he had for a moment felt such a scorn for his surroundings of court and people, friends and rivals, men and women, as had nearly driven him wild. We see the germs of it in Antony and Cleopatra. What a fool is this Antony, who puts his reputation and a world-wide dominion in jeopardy in order to be near a cold-blooded coquette, who has passed from hand to hand, and whose caprice puts on all the colours of the rainbow. We find it in full bloom in Troilus and Cressida. What a simpleton this Troilus, who, credulous as a child, devotes himself body and soul to a Cressida; a typical classic she, treachery in woman's form, as false and flighty as foam upon the waves, whose fickleness has become a by-word.
- 64. Shakespeare has now reached that point of departure where man feels the need of stripping woman of the glamour with which romantic naïveté and sensual attraction have surrounded her, and finds a gratification in seeing merely the sex in her. Sympathy with love, and a conception of woman as an object worthy of love, goes the way of all other sympathies and illusions at this stage. "All is vanity," says Kohélet, and Shakespeare with him. As in all artist souls, there was in his a peculiar blending of enthusiast and cynic. He has now parted with enthusiasm for a time, and cynicism is paramount. Such an all-pervading change in the disposition and temper of a great personality was not without its reasons, possibly its one first cause. We can trace its workings without divining its origin, but we may seek to orient ourselves with regard to its conditions. Leverier came to the conclusion in 1846 that the disturbances in the path of Uranus were caused by something behind the planet which neither he nor anybody else had ever seen. He indicated its probable position, and three weeks afterwards Galle found Neptune on the very spot. Unfortunately, Shakespeare's history is so very obscure, and such fruitless search in every direction has been made after fresh documents, that we have no great hope of finding any new light. We can but glance around the horizon of his life, and note how English circumstances and conditions grouped themselves about him. Material for cheering or depressing reflections can be found at all times, but the mind is not always equally prone to assimilate the cheering or depressing. Certain it is that Shakespeare has now elected to seek out and dwell upon the ugly and sorrowful, the unclean and the repulsive. His melancholy finds its nourishment therein, and his bitterness has learned to suck poison from every noxious plant which borders his path through life. His contempt of mankind and his weariness of existence swell and grow with each experience, and in the events and conditions of those years there was surely matter enough for abhorrence, rancour, and scorn.
- 65. II THE COURT—THE KING'S FAVOURITES AND RALEIGH Under the circumstances Shakespeare could do nothing but keep as close to King and Court as possible, even though the King's dreary, and the Court's profligate qualities grew year by year. James aspired to a comparison with Solomon for wisdom; he certainly resembled him in prodigality, and Henry III. of France in his susceptibility to manly beauty. His passion for his various favourites recalls that of Edward II. for Gaveston in Marlowe's drama. He was, says a chronicle of the time, as susceptible as any schoolgirl to handsome features and well-formed limbs in a man. The parallels his contemporaries drew between him and his predecessor on this score did not work out to his advantage. Elizabeth, they said, who was unmarried, loved only individuals of the opposite sex, all eminent men, whom, even then, she never allowed to rule her. James, on the contrary, was married, and yet entertained a passion for one mignon after another, giving the most exalted positions in the country to these men, who were worthless and arrogant, and by whom he was entirely led. In our day Swinburne has characterised James as combining with "northern virulence and pedantry ... a savour of the worst qualities of the worst Italians of the worst period of Italian decadence." Was he, in truth, of Scotch descent on both sides? His exterior recalled little of his mother's charms, and still less those of the handsome Darnley. His contemporaries doubted. They neither believed that Darnley's jealousy was groundless, nor the modern embellishment that the Italian singer and private secretary's ugly face made any tender feeling on Mary Stuart's side quite impossible. The Scottish Solomon was invariably alluded to by the outspoken, jest-loving Henry IV. of France as "Solomon, the son of David" (Rizzio).
- 66. The general enthusiasm which greeted King James on his accession speedily gave way to a very decided unpopularity. Again and again, upon a score of different points, did he offend English national pride, sense of justice, and decency. The lively Queen, who romped through the court festivities, and spent her days in dressing herself out for masquerades, had her favourites, much as the King had his. At one time, indeed, the same family served them both. The Queen set her affection on the elder brother, the Earl of Pembroke, and the King bestowed his upon the younger, whom he made Earl of Montgomery and Knight of the Garter. Whether he did not find the harmony of disposition for which he had looked, or whether the impression Montgomery made upon him was displaced by another and stronger, certain it is that no later than 1603 he was already violently infatuated with a youth of twenty, who afterwards became the most powerful man in Great Britain. This was a young Scot, Robert Carr, who first attracted the King's attention by breaking his leg in a tourney at which James was present. He had as a lad been one of the King's pages at home in Scotland, had since pursued his fortunes in France, and was now in service with Lord Hay. The King gave special orders that he should be nursed at the castle, sent his own doctor to him, visited him frequently during his illness, and made him Knight and Gentleman of the Bedchamber as soon as he was convalescent. He kept him constantly about his person, and even took the trouble to teach him Latin. Step by step the young man was advanced until he stood among the foremost ranks of the country. It was his nationality which specially offended the people, for Scottish adventurers swarmed about the King, and the Scots were still regarded as stranger-folk in England. The new title of Great Britain had also caused great discontent. Was the glorious name of England no longer to distinguish them? Scotch moneys were made current on English soil, and English ships were compelled to carry the cross of St. Andrew, with that of St. George upon their flags.
- 67. Englishmen found themselves slighted, and were fearful that the Scot would creep into English lordships and English ladies' beds, as a contemporary writing expresses it. The conflicts in Parliament concerning the extension of national privileges to the Scotch were incessant. Bacon undertook the King's cause, and discreet and biblical objections were made that things would fall out as they did with Lot and Abraham. Families combined together, or were set at variance among themselves; and it grew to a case of, "Go you to the right? I go to the left." In 1607 James observed that he intended to "give England the labour and the sweat, Scotland the fruit and the sweet;" and it was a notorious fact, that where his passions were concerned, the Scotch were persistently preferred to the English. James, having meanwhile found it necessary to provide his favourite with estates, procured them in the following manner. When Raleigh came to grief, he had secured the revenues of his estate, Sherborne, to Lady Raleigh, and his son as heir to it after his death. A few months later the King's lawyers discovered a technical error in the deed of conveyance which rendered it invalid. Raleigh wrote from his prison to Salisbury, entreating the King not to deprive his family of their subsistence for the sake of a copyist's blunder. The King made many promises, and assured Raleigh that a new and correct deed should be drawn up. The imprisoned hero had begun, at about this time, to entertain renewed hope of freedom, for he believed that Christian IV., then on a visit to England, 1606, would intercede for him. But when Lady Raleigh, under this impression, threw herself on her knees before James at Hampton Court, the King passed her by without a word. From the year 1607 the King had resolved upon seizing Sherborne for his favourite. In 1608 Raleigh was required to prove right and title thereunto, and he possessed only the faulty document. At Christmastide, taking her two little sons by the hand, Lady Raleigh cast herself a second time before James, and implored him for a new and accurate deed. The only reply she obtained was a broad Scotch, "I maun hae the lond—I maun hae it for Carr." It is said that the high-spirited woman lost all patience upon this, and
- 68. springing to her feet called upon God to punish the despoiler of her property. Raleigh, on the 2nd of January 1609, tried the more politic method of writing to Carr, entreating him not to aspire to the possession of Sherborne. He received no answer, and upon the 10th of the same month the estate was handed over to the favourite as a gift. It is to be regretted that Raleigh, who had never concealed his opinion of the King's favourites, should have lowered himself by writing to Carr as "one whom I know not, but by honourable fame." Lady Raleigh accepted a sum of money in compensation, which bore no relation to the real value of Sherborne, and Raleigh was left in the Tower. It is a highly characteristic feature that he remained there year after year until he succeeded (in 1616) in arousing his kingly gaoler's cupidity afresh. In the hope of his finding the anticipated gold-mines in Guiana his prison doors were opened for a while (1616-17), and his failure to discover them was made a pretext for his execution.[1] [1] "Sir Walter Raleigh was freed out of the Tower the last week, and goes up and down, seeing sights and places built or bettered since his imprisonment,"—Letter from John Chamberlain to Sir Dudley Carleton, 27th March 1616 ("The Court and Times of James the First"). Gardiner's "History of England," ii. 43; Gosse, "Raleigh," 172. III THE KING'S THEOLOGY AND IMPECUNIOSITY—HIS DISPUTES WITH THE HOUSE OF COMMONS The King's interest in parsons and theological discussions was not a whit inferior to his passion for his favourites. He constantly gave public expression to a superstition which diverted even contemporary culture. It is jestingly alluded to in a letter from Sir
- 69. Edward Hoby to Sir Thomas Edmondes, dated Nov. 19, 1605. "His Majesty in his speech observed one principal point, that most of all his best fortunes had happened unto him upon the Tuesday; and particularly he repeated his deliverance from Gowry [the brothers Ruthven] and this [Gunpowder Plot], in which he noted precisely that both fell upon the fifth day of the month: and therefore concluded that he made choice that the next sitting of Parliament might begin upon a Tuesday." If James supported the claims of the clergy, it was less on religious grounds than because his own kingly power was thereby strengthened, and he disseminated, to the best of his ability, the doctrine that all questions must finally be referred to his personal wisdom and insight. Relations between the temporal and the spiritual jurisdictions were already strained. The secular judges frequently objected that the Spiritual Court entered into certain lawsuits before making sure that the case appertained to them. The clergy resisted, asserting that the two courts were independent of one another, and that their spiritual prerogatives emanated direct from the Crown. In 1605 the Archbishop of Canterbury complained of the secular judges to the King, and they, in their turn, appealed to Parliament. Fuller, a member of Parliament, and one of the principal advocates of the Puritan party, defended two of the accused who had been shamefully mishandled by the Spiritual Court (the High Commission), and he denied this "Popish authority," as he called it, any right to impose fines or inflict imprisonment. For these reckless utterances he was sent to gaol, and kept there until he retracted. The question of the supremacy of temporal jurisdiction over the spiritual began to ferment in the public mind. The King held by the latter, because it exercised an authority which Parliament was powerless to control, while Lord Chief Justice Coke stood by the former. On the latter giving vent, however, to the opinion, in the King's presence, that the sovereign was bound to respect the law of the land, and to remember that spiritual jurisdiction was extraneous, James clenched angry fists in his face, and would have struck him, had not Coke, alarmed, fallen on his knees and entreated pardon.
- 70. The King's ardent orthodoxy prompted him next to appear as a theological polemist. A certain professor of theology at Leyden, Conrad Vorstius by name, had, according to James's ideas, been guilty of heresy. It was of so slight a nature that, in spite of the rigid orthodoxy of the greater part of the Dutch theologians, it had raised no protest in Holland, since statesmen, nobles, and merchants were all agreed upon tolerance in matters of religion. James, however, made such a vindictive assault upon them, that, for fear of forfeiting their English alliance, they were compelled to give Vorstius his dismissal. At the precise moment of James's full polemical heat against Vorstius, two unlucky Englishmen, Edward Wrightman and Bartholomew Legate, were convicted of holding heretical opinions. The latter admitted that he was an Aryan, and had not prayed to Jesus for many years. James was fire and flame. Elizabeth had burnt two heretics. Why shouldn't he? Public opinion saw no cruelty, but merely righteousness in such a proceeding, and they were both accordingly burned alive in March 1612. It was one of the clerkly James's customs to issue proclamations. Among the first of these was a warning issued against the encroachments of the Jesuits, advising them of a date by which they must have decamped from his kingdom and country. Another very forcibly recommended unanimity of religion—that is to say, complete uniformity of ceremony. A bold priest, Burgess by name, preached a sermon in the King's presence, soon after this, on the insignificance of ceremonies. They resembled, he said, the glass of the Roman Senator, which was not worth a man's life or subsistence. Augustus, having been invited to a feast by this Senator, was greeted on his arrival by terrible cries. A slave, who had broken some costly glass, was about to be thrown into the fishpond. The Emperor bade them defer the punishment until he had inquired of his host whether he had glass worth a man's life. Upon the Senator answering that he possessed glass worth a province, Augustus asked to see it, and smashing it into fragments, remarked, "Better that it should all
- 71. perish than that one man should die." "I leave the application to your Majesty." The proclamations continued undiminished, however, and it became a favourite amusement of James to issue edicts forbidding lawful trades. This was the cause of much discontent, and appeal was made to the Lord Chief Justice. In 1610 two questions were, laid before Coke: whether the King could prohibit the erection of new houses in London by proclamation (a naïve notification had been issued with a view to preventing the "overdevelopment" of the capital), or forbid the manufacture of starch (in allusion to a manifesto limiting the uses of wheat to purposes of food). The answer was, returned that the King had neither power to create offences by proclamation, nor make trades, which did not legally subject themselves to judicial control, liable to punishment by the Star Chamber. After this ensued a temporary respite from edicts levying fines or threatening imprisonment. The dissensions between King and People became so violent that they soon led to a complete rupture between James and the House of Commons, which would not submit to his highhanded levying and collecting of taxes in order to squander the money on his own pleasures and caprices. James, who required £500,000 to pay his debts, was made to endure a speech in Parliament concerning the prodigality of himself and favourites. An insulting rumour added that it had been said in the House that the King must pack all the Scots in his household back to the country whence they came. James, losing all patience, prorogued Parliament, and finally dissolved it in February 1611. This was the beginning of a conflict between the Crown and the People which lasted throughout James's lifetime, causing the Great Revolution under his son, and being only finally extinguished seventy-eight years afterwards by the offer from both Houses of the Crown to William of Orange. It was to no purpose that the King's revenues were increased year by year, by illegal taxation too: nothing sufficed. In February 1611
- 72. he divided £34,000 among six favourites, five of whom were Scotch. In the March of the same year he made Carr Viscount Rochester and a peer of England. For the first time in English history a Scot took his seat in the House of Lords, and a Scot, moreover, who had done his best to inflame the King against the Commons. To relieve its pecuniary distress the Court hit upon the expedient of selling baronetcies. Every knight or squire possessed of money or estates to the value of a hundred a year could become a baronet, provided he were willing to disburse £1080 (a sum sufficient to support thirty infantry-men in Ireland for three years) in three yearly payments to the State coffers. This contrivance brought no very great relief, however. Either the extravagance was too reckless, or the seekers after titles were not sufficiently numerous. Things had gone so far in 1614, that, in spite of the hitherto unheard-of sale of Crown property, James was at his wits' end for want of money. He owed £680,000, not to mention a yearly deficit of £200,000. The garrisons in Holland were on the point of mutinying for their pay, and the fleet was in much the same condition. Fortresses were falling into ruins for want of repair, and English Ambassadors abroad were fruitlessly writing home for money. It was once more decided to summon Parliament. In spite of the most shameless packing, however, the Commons came in with a strong Opposition; and they had much to complain of. The King, among other things, had given Lord Harrington the exclusive right of coining copper money, in return for his having lent him £300,000 at his daughter's wedding. He had also granted a monopoly of the manufacture of glass, and had given the sole right of trade with France to a single company. The Upper House declined to meet the Lower on a common ground of procedure, and when Bishop Neile, one of the greatest sycophants the royal influence possessed in the Lords, permitted himself some offensive strictures on the Commons, such a storm broke loose among the latter that one member (an aristocrat), abused the courtiers as "spaniels" towards the King and "wolves"
- 73. towards the people, and another went so far as to warn the Scotch favourites that the Sicilian Vespers might find a parallel in England. James, who, in a lengthy peroration, had attempted to influence the Commons in his favour, saw that he had nothing to hope from them and dissolved Parliament in the following year. In order to free him from debt, and to contrive, if possible, some means of supplying the sums swallowed up by the Government and Court, a scheme was devised of inducing private citizens to send money to the King, apparently of their own free will. The bishops inaugurated it by offering James their Church plate and other valuables. This example was followed by all who hoped or expected favours from the court; and a great number of people sent money to the Treasury at Whitehall. Thus the idea obtained that James should issue a summons for all England to follow this example. It seemed, at first, as if this self-taxation would bring in a good round sum. The King asked the city for a loan of £100,000, and it replied (very differently to the response it had made to Elizabeth) that they would rather give £10,000 than lend £100,000. In the course of little over a month £34,000 came in, but with that the stream ceased. Government wrote fruitlessly to all the counties and their officials, &c., to renew the summons. The sheriffs unanimously replied that if the King were to summon Parliament he would experience no difficulty in getting money. During two whole months only £500 came in. Fresh appeals were made and renewed pressure attempted without obtaining the desired results. The luckless Raleigh, who had heard of these things in his prison, but was without adequate information from the outside world, wrote a pamphlet on the prerogatives of Parliament, full of good advice to the King, whom he assumed to be personally guiltless of the abuses his ministers practised in his name. He naïvely looked for his freedom in return for the tract, which naturally was suppressed. The notorious Peckham case was another cause of popular ill- humour. In the course of this trial, a man who had been greatly exasperated by clerical and official demeanour, and had expressed
- 74. himself indiscreetly thereon, was subjected to repeated torture on the pretext of a sermon which had never been preached or printed, but which an examination of his house had brought to light. Bacon degraded himself by urging on the executioners at the rack—a form of torture which had been abolished in common law, but was still considered legitimately applicable in political cases. That James was personally cruel is shown, amongst other things, by his frequent pardons on the scaffold. He kept such men as Cobham, Grey, and Markham waiting two hours with the axe hanging over their heads, undergoing all the tortures of death, before they were informed that their execution had been deferred. The times, however, were as cruel as he. Through all the published letters of that period runs incessant mention of hanging, racking, breaking on the wheel, half hanging, and executions, without the least emotion being expressed. Any death gave invariable rise to suspicions of poison. Even when the King lost his eldest son, it was stubbornly believed that he had rid himself of him from jealousy of his popularity. As every death was attributed to foul play, so every disease or sickness was assigned to witchcraft. Sorcerers and witches were condemned and despised, but believed in, nevertheless, even by such men as Philip Sidney's friend, Fulk Greville, Lord Brook and Chancellor of the Exchequer under James. He obviously fully credits the witchcraft of which he speaks so disdainfully in his work, "Five Years of King James's Government." IV THE CUSTOMS OF THE COURT The tone of the Court was vicious throughout. Relations between the sexes were much looser than would have been expected under a king who, in general, troubled himself little about women. We find a
- 75. description in Sir Dudley Carleton's letters of a bridal adventure, which ended in the King going in night-gear to awaken the bride next morning and remaining with her some time, "in or upon the bed, chuse which you will believe." James spoke of the Queen in public notices as "Our dearest bedfellow." In the half-imbecile, half- obscene correspondence between James and Carr's successor, Buckingham, the latter signs himself, "Your dog," while James addresses him as "Dog Steenie." The King even calls the solemn Cecil, "little beagle;" and the Queen, writing to Buckingham to beg him intercede with the King for Raleigh's life, addresses him as "my kind dog." With personal dignity, all decency also was set aside. Even the elder Disraeli, James's principal admirer and apologist, acknowledges that the morals of the Court were appalling, and that these courtiers, who passed their days in absolute idleness and preposterous luxury, were stained by infamous vices. He quotes Drayton's lines from the "Mooncalf," descriptive of a lady and gentleman of this circle— "He's too much woman, and she's too much man." Neither does he deny the contemporary Arthur Wilson's account of many young girls of good family, who, reduced to poverty by their parents' luxurious lives, looked upon their beauty as so much capital. They came up to London in order to put themselves up for sale, obtained large pensions for life, and ultimately married prominent and wealthy men. They were considered sensible, well-bred women, and were even looked upon as esprits forts. The conversation of the men was so profligate, that the following sentiment, less decently expressed, must have been frequently heard: "I would rather that one should believe I possessed a lady's favours, though I did not, than really possess them when none knew thereof." Gondomar, the Spanish envoy, played an important part at the Court of King James. Don Diego Sarmiento de Acuna, Count of Gondomar, was one of the first diplomatists of Spain. He must have lacked the intuitions of a statesman, in so far as he flattered himself that England could be brought back to Roman Catholicism, but he was a
- 76. past-master in the art of managing men. He knew how to awe by rare firmness of decision and how to win by exemplary suppleness; he knew when to speak and when to be silent; and, finally, he understood how to further his master's aims by the most intelligent means. He had as free access to James as any English courtier, having acquired it by lively sallies and by talking bad Latin, in order to give the King an opportunity of correcting him. Ladies of rank crowded on to their balconies to attract this man's attention as he rode or drove to his house; and it appears, says Disraeli, that any one of them would have sold her favours for a good round sum. Noticeable among these ladies of title, says Wilson, were many who owned some pretensions to wit, or had charming daughters or pretty nieces, whose presence attracted many men to their houses. The following anecdote made considerable noise at the time, and has been variously repeated. In Drury Lane, Gondomar, one day, passed the house of a charming widow, a certain Lady Jacob. He saluted her, and was amazed to find that in return to his greeting she merely moved her mouth, which she opened, indeed, to a very great extent. He was profoundly astonished by this lack of courtesy, but reflected that she had probably been overtaken by a fit of the gapes. The same thing occurring, however, on the following day, he sent one of his retinue to inform her that English ladies were usually more gracious than to return his greeting in such an outrageous manner. She replied, that being aware that he had acquired several good graces for a handsome sum, she had wished to prove to him that she also had a mouth which could be stopped in the same fashion. Whereupon he took the hint, and immediately despatched her a present. In all this, however, the women merely followed the example of the men. The English Ambassador at Madrid had long been aware of, and profited by, the possibility of buying the secrets of the Spanish Government at comparatively reasonable prices. In May 1613, however, he discovered that Spain, in the same manner, annually paid large sums to a whole series of eminent persons in England. He saw, to his disgust, the name of the English Admiral, Sir William
- 77. Monson, among the pensioners of Spain, and learned, to his consternation, that the late Chancellor of the Exchequer, Lord Salisbury, had been in her pay up to the moment of his death. In the following December he obtained a complete list of men enjoying Spanish pay, and was thunderstruck on reading the names of men whose integrity he had never doubted, and who were filling the highest offices of state. Not daring to trust the secret to paper, correspondence by no means being considered inviolable in those days, he applied for permission to bring the disgraceful information to James in person. V ARABELLA STUART AND WILLIAM SEYMOUR An event occurring in the royal family (concerning which Gardiner observes that, in our day, such a thing would rouse the wrath of the British people from one end of the kingdom to the other) serves to illustrate both the heartlessness of the King and the lawless condition of the people. Arabella Stuart, who was King James's cousin, had possessed her own appanage from the time of Queen Elizabeth. She had her apartments in the Palace, and associated with the Queen's ladies. Her letters show a refined and lovable woman's soul, absolutely untroubled by any political ambition. She says in a letter to her uncle Shrewsbury that she wishes to refute the apparent impossibility of a young woman's being able to preserve her purity and innocence among the follies with which a court surrounds her. She is alluding, amongst other things, to one of the eternal masquerades through which the Queen and her ladies racketed, attired, upon this occasion, "as sea nymphs or nereids, to the great delight of all beholders" (Arthur Wilson's "History of Great Britain," 1633). She
- 78. kept apart as much as possible from this whirl of gaiety, and the various foreign potentates who applied for her hand were all dismissed. She would not, she said, wed a man whom she did not know. Nevertheless it was rumoured that she intended to marry some foreign prince who would enforce her rights to the English throne. James sent her to the Tower at Christmas 1609 on account of this report, and summoned the Council. The misunderstanding was cleared up, and she was hastily set at liberty, James expressly assuring her that he would have no objection to her marrying a subject. A few weeks after she learned to know and love the man to whom she devoted herself with a passion and fidelity which recalls that of Imogen for Posthumus in Shakespeare's Cymbeline. This was young William Seymour, a son of Lord Beauchamp, one of the first noblemen in England. He was received in her apartments, and obtained her promise in February, the King's assurance to Arabella giving them every security for the future. Nevertheless, the young Princess's choice could not have fallen more unfortunately. Lord Beauchamp was the son of the Earl of Hertford and Catherine Grey, the inheritress of the Suffolk rights to the throne. The Earl's eldest son was still alive, and William Seymour had no claim to the crown at the moment; but the fact that his brother might die childless made him an always possible pretender. The Suffolk claims had been recognised by Act of Parliament, and the Parliament which had acknowledged James was powerless to change the succession. In the face of this notorious fact, James ignored the consideration that neither Seymour and Arabella, nor any one else, wanted to deprive him of the throne in favour of the young pair. Both were summoned before the Council and examined. Seymour was made to renounce all thought of marriage with Arabella, and the young couple did not see each other for three months. In May 1610, however, they were secretly married. When the news reached James's ears in July, he was furious. Arabella was detained in custody at Lambeth, and Seymour was sent
- 79. to the Tower. Arabella strove in vain to touch the King's heart. Great sympathy was felt in London, however, for the young couple, and secret meetings were permitted them by their gaolers. When the correspondence between them was discovered, Arabella was commanded to travel to Durham and put herself under the care of its Bishop. On her refusal to quit her apartments, she was carried away by force. Falling ill on the journey, she was given permission to pause by the way, and, attiring herself like one of Shakespeare's heroines, she seized the opportunity to escape. She drew on a pair of French trousers over her skirt, put on a man's coat and high boots, wore a manly wig with long curls over her hair, set a low-flapped black hat upon her head, threw a short cloak, around her, and fastened a small sword at her side. Thus disguised, she fled by horse to Blackwall, where a French ship awaited her and Lord Seymour, the latter having arranged his escape for the same time. An accident prevented their meeting, and Arabella's friends, growing impatient, insisted, in spite of her protests, on setting out at once. When Seymour arrived next day, he learned to his disappointment, that the ship had set sail. He succeeded, however, in getting put over to Ostend. Meanwhile, Arabella, a few miles from Calais, induced the captain to lay-to for an hour or so to give Seymour an opportunity of overtaking them. They were here surprised by an English cruiser, which had been sent from Dover to capture the fugitives, and Arabella was brought back to the Tower. When she implored pardon, James brutally replied that she had eaten forbidden fruit, and must pay the price of her disobedience. Despair deprived her of her reason, and she died miserably, after five years of imprisonment. Not until after her death was her husband permitted to return to England. VI
- 80. ROCHESTER AND LADY ESSEX It was Rochester who was the real ruler of England all this time. He was the acknowledged favourite; to him every suitor applied and from him came every reward. He was made head of the Privy Council after the death of Lord Dunbar, and was nominated Lord High Treasurer of Scotland, a title which gave him great prestige in his native country. He was also made Baron Brandspech, and, in accordance with the general expectation, Viscount Rochester and Knight of the Garter. The only decided opposition he had to encounter was that of young Prince Henry, the nation's darling, who could not endure his arrogant way, and was, moreover, his rival in fair ladies' favours. After the death of the Prince, Rochester was more powerful than ever. As principal Secretary, Carr managed all the King's correspondence, and on more than one occasion he answered letters without consulting either King or Council. The King, if he was aware of this, had reached such a pitch of infatuation that he submitted to everything. Carr was given a new title in 1613 and the Viscount Rochester was made Earl of Somerset. In 1614 the King made him Lord Chamberlain "because he loved him better than all men living." In the interim he had been appointed Keeper of the Seals and Warden of the Cinque Ports. It was from such a height as this that he fell, and the circumstances of his overthrow form perhaps the most interesting events, from a psychological point of view, of James' reign. They made a great impression on contemporary minds, and occupy a large space in the letters of the period—letters in which Shakespeare's name is never mentioned and of whose very existence their historico-polemical writers do not seem to have been aware. It was one of James's ambitions on his coming to England to put an end to the feuds and dissensions which were rife among the great families. To this end he arranged a match between Essex's son, and a daughter of the house which had ruined his father and driven him to death. In January 1608, accordingly, the fourteen-year-old Earl was married to the Lady Frances Howard, just thirteen years of age,
- 81. and he thus became allied with the powerful houses of Howard and Cecil. Mr. Pory wrote to Sir Robert Cotton on the occasion of the marriage, "The bridegroom carried himself as gravely and as gracefully as if he were of his father's age." The Church in those times sanctioned these marriages between children, but every sense of fitness demanded that they should be immediately parted. Young Essex was sent on foreign travel, and did not return to claim his bride until he was eighteen. He was a solidly built youth, possessed of a heavy and imperturbably calm disposition. Frances, on the other hand, was obstinately and stormily passionate in both her likes and dislikes. She had been brought up by a coarse and covetous mother, and early corrupted by contact with the vices of the Court. She took a deep dislike to her youthful bridegroom from the first and refused to live with him. Her relations, however, compelled her to accompany him to his estate, Chartley. She had previously attracted the attention of both Prince Henry and the favourite Rochester. Expecting more from Rochester, as a contemporary document explains, than from the unprofitable attentions of the Prince, she chose the former, a fact which can hardly have failed to augment the ill-will already existing between the King's son and the King's friend. From the moment of her choice all the passionate intensity of her nature was concentrated upon avoiding any intercourse with her husband and in assuring Rochester that his jealousy on that score was groundless. She chose for her confidante a certain Mrs. Turner, a doctor's widow, who, after leading a dissipated life, was settling down to a reputation for witchcraft. Lady Essex begged some potion of her which should chill the Earl's ardour, and this not working to her satisfaction, she wrote the following letter to her priestess, which was later produced at the trial and made public by Fulk Greville:— "Sweet Turner, as thou hast been hitherto, so art thou all my hopes of good in this world. My Lord is lusty as ever he was, and hath complained to my brother Howard, that hee hath not layne with mee, nor used mee as his wife. This makes me mad, since of all
- 82. men I loath him, because he is the only obstacle and hindrance, that I shall never enjoy him whom I love." Upon the Earl's complaining a second time, the two applied to a Dr. Forman, quack and reputed sorcerer, for some means of causing an aversion (frigidity quoad hanc) in the Earl. The mountebank obligingly performed all manner of hocus-pocus with wax dolls, &c., and these in their turn failing, Lady Essex wrote to him:— "Sweet Father, although I have found you ready at all times to further mee, yet must I still crave your helpe; wherefore I beseech you to remember that you keepe the doores close, and that you still retaine the Lord with mee and his affection towards mee. I have no cause but to be confident in you, though the world be against mee; yet heaven failes mee not; many are the troubles I sustaine, the doggednesse of my Lord, the crossenesse of my enemies, and the subversion of my fortunes, unlesse you by your wisdome doe deliver mee out of the midst of this wildernesse, which I entreat for God's sake. From Chartley.—Your affectionate loving daughter, FRANCES ESSEX." In the beginning of the year 1613, a woman named Mary Woods accused Lady Essex of attempting to bribe her to poison the Earl. The accusation came to nothing, however, and the Countess soon afterwards tried a new tack. It was now three years since her husband's return from abroad, and if she could succeed in convincing the Court that the marriage had never been consummated there was some chance of its being declared void. Having won her father and her utterly unscrupulous uncle, the powerful Lord Northampton, to her side, she induced the latter, who played Pandarus to this Cressida, to represent the situation to the King. James, loving Rochester as much as ever, and taking a pleasure in completing the happiness of those he loved, lent a willing ear. Northampton and Suffolk both took the matter up warmly, clearly seeing how advantageous an alliance with Carr, whom they