Stock and about stock how to identify measure
- 1. CHAPTER 10 Stocks and Their Valuation
- 2. Facts about Common Stock • Represents ownership • Ownership implies control • Stockholders elect directors • Directors elect management • Management’s goal: Maximize the stock price 10-2
- 3. Intrinsic Value and Stock Price • Outside investors, corporate insiders, and analysts use a variety of approaches to estimate a stock’s intrinsic value (P0). • In equilibrium we assume that a stock’s price equals its intrinsic value. – Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help determine which stocks are attractive to buy and/or sell. – Stocks with a price below (above) its intrinsic value are undervalued (overvalued). 10-3
- 4. Determinants of Intrinsic Value and Stock Prices “True” Investor Cash Flows “True” Risk “Perceived” Investor Cash Flows “Perceived” Risk Managerial Actions, the Economic Environment, Taxes, and the Political Climate Stock’s Intrinsic Value Stock’s Market Price Market Equilibrium: Intrinsic Value = Stock Price 10-4
- 5. Different Approaches for Estimating the Intrinsic Value of a Common Stock • Discounted dividend model • Corporate valuation model • P/E multiple approach • EVA approach 10-5
- 6. Discounted Dividend Model • Value of a stock is the present value of the future dividends expected to be generated by the stock. • See equation 10-1 ) r (1 D ... ) r (1 D ) r (1 D ) r (1 D P̂ s 3 s 3 2 s 2 1 s 1 0 10-6
- 7. Constant Growth Stock g r D g r g) (1 D P̂ s 1 s 0 0 • A stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g. D1 = D0(1 + g)1 D2 = D0(1 + g)2 Dt = D0(1 + g)t • If g is constant, the discounted dividend formula converges to: 10-7
- 8. Future Dividends and Their Present Values t t t ) r 1 ( D PVD t 0 PVD P $ 0.25 Years (t) 0 t 0 t ) g 1 ( D D 10-8
- 9. Dividends vs. Growth • Dividends are paid out of earnings. • Hence, growth in dividends requires growth in earnings. • Earnings growth in the long run occurs primarily because firms retain earnings and reinvest them in the business. • Hence, the higher percentage of earnings retained, the higher the growth rate. Next year’s earnings = prior earnings + ROE(RE) Next year’s dividends = payout ratio*next year’s earnings Growth rate = (1-payout ratio)*ROE
- 10. What happens if g > rs? • If g > rs, the constant growth formula leads to a negative stock price, which does not make sense. • The constant growth model can only be used if: – rs > g. – g is expected to be constant forever. 10-10
- 11. Use the SML to Calculate the Required Rate of Return (rs) • If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, and b = 1.2, what is the required rate of return on the firm’s stock? 10-11
- 12. Find the Expected Dividend Stream for the Next 3 Years and Their PVs 1.8761 1.7599 1.6509 rs = 13% g = 6% 0 1 2.247 2 2.382 3 2.12 D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%. 10-12
- 13. Using the constant growth model: What is the stock’s intrinsic value? g r D P̂ s 1 0 10-13
- 14. • D1 will have been paid out already. So, expected P1 is the present value (as of Year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc. • Could also find expected P1 as: What is the stock’s expected value, one year from now? g r D P̂ s 2 1 g) (1 P P̂ 0 1 10-14
- 15. Find Expected Dividend Yield, Capital Gains Yield, and Total Return During First Year • Dividend yield = D1/P0 • Capital gains yield = (P1 – P0)/P0 • Total return (rs) = Dividend yield + Capital gains yield 10-15
- 16. The dividend stream would be a perpetuity. What would the expected price today be, if g = 0? r PMT P̂0 2.00 2.00 2.00 0 1 2 3 rs = 13% 10-16
- 17. Supernormal Growth: What if g = 30% for 3 years before achieving long-run growth of 6%? • Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value. • However, the growth does become constant after 3 years. 10-17
- 18. Valuing Common Stock with Nonconstant Growth rs = 13% g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6% 2.301 2.647 3.045 46.114 54.107 = 0 1 2 3 4 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.658 P̂0 $66.54 06 . 0 0.13 4.658 P̂3 D0 = $2.00. 10-18
- 19. Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains Yields During the First and Fourth Years • Dividend yield (first year) = ? • Capital gains yield (first year) = ? • During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant, and capital gains yield ≠ g. • After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%. 10-19
- 20. Nonconstant Growth: What if g = 0% for 3 years before long-run growth of 6%? rs = 13% g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6% 1.77 1.57 1.39 20.99 25.72 = 0 1 2 3 4 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.12 P̂0 $30.29 06 . 0 0.13 2.12 P̂3 D0 = $2.00. 10-20
- 21. Find Expected Dividend and Capital Gains Yields During the First and Fourth Years • Dividend yield (first year) = ? • Capital gains yield (first year) = ? • After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%. 10-21
- 22. • Yes. Even though the dividends are declining, the stock is still producing cash flows and therefore has positive value. If the stock was expected to have negative growth (g = -6%), would anyone buy the stock, and what is its value? g r ) g (1 D g r D P̂ s 0 s 1 0 10-22
- 23. Find Expected Annual Dividend and Capital Gains Yields • Capital gains yield = g = -6.00% • Dividend yield = 13.00% – (-6.00%) = 19.00% • Since the stock is experiencing constant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are constant. Dividend yield is sufficiently large (19%) to offset negative capital gains. 10-23
- 24. Corporate Valuation Model • Also called the free cash flow method. Suggests the value of the entire firm equals the present value of the firm’s free cash flows. • Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s after-tax operating income less the net capital investment. NOWC es expenditur Capital on amortizati and Depr. T) EBIT(1 FCF 10-24
- 25. Applying the Corporate Valuation Model • Find the market value (MV) of the firm, by finding the PV of the firm’s future FCFs. • Subtract MV of firm’s debt and preferred stock to get MV of common stock. • Divide MV of common stock by the number of shares outstanding to get intrinsic stock price (value). 10-25
- 26. Issues Regarding the Corporate Valuation Model • Often preferred to the discounted dividend model, especially when considering number of firms that don’t pay dividends or when dividends are hard to forecast. • Similar to discounted dividend model, assumes at some point free cash flow will grow at a constant rate. • Horizon value (HVN) represents value of firm at the point that growth becomes constant. 10-26
- 27. 3 HV 06 . 0 0.10 21.20 530 Use the Corporate Valuation Model to Find the Firm’s Intrinsic Value Given: Long-Run gFCF = 6% and WACC = 10% r= 10% g = 6% -4.545 8.264 15.026 398.197 416.942 0 1 2 3 4 -5 21.20 10 20 10-27
- 28. What is the firm’s intrinsic value per share? The firm has $40 million total in debt and preferred stock and has 10 million shares of common stock. million 94 . 376 $ 40 $ 94 . 416 $ preferred and debt of MV firm of MV equity of MV $37.69 /10 94 . 376 $ shares of quity/# e of MV share per Value 10-28
- 29. Firm Multiples Method • Analysts often use the following multiples to value stocks. – P/E – P/CF – P/Sales • EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply this by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price. 10-29
- 30. EVA Approach EVA = Equity capital(ROE – Cost of equity) MVEquity = BVEquity + PV of all future EVAs Value per share = MVEquity/# of shares 10-30
- 31. Preferred Stock • Hybrid security. • Like bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders. • However, companies can omit preferred dividend payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy. 10-31
- 32. If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is the preferred stock’s expected return? p p p V r̂ V D r D p 10-32
- 33. References • Brighmam, E.F., dan Houston, J.F. (2013). Essential of Financial Management, 3rd Edition. Thomson.
- 34. Thank You