StratAdviser Ebola Rapid Reflection Force
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Stratadviser Ltd proposes the establishment of an Ebola Rapid Reflection Force (ERRF) to develop strategies for managing the ongoing Ebola outbreak, emphasizing the need for a proactive rather than reactive approach. This expert group would analyze various impacts, set strategic objectives, and address tactical concerns regarding Ebola cases in relation to global travel and health. The document details the costs and structure necessary to implement the ERRF, including regular updates and expert contributions to enhance response efforts.
StratAdviser Ebola Rapid Reflection Force
- 1. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK Registered in England No 6322224 contact@stratadviser.com phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510 1 Ebola Rapid Reflection Force Dr Jan-‐Cedric Hansen The current Ebola Outbreak demonstrates the need to think of our vulnerabilities in the context of highly compressed time units. The combination of the long incubation period virus – 2 to 21 days during which there is no evidence that a given individual is contaminated – and the jet airliner dramatically changes the rules: in a matter of few hours a contaminated individual travel within the ECOWAS and beyond as far as the North American economic space or the Schengen space and, as soon as he/she expresses the first symptoms – some 2 to 21 days after – he/she starts to contaminate his/her environment, neighbouring, herd or pets which in turn become potential new reservoirs (rodents, dogs, pigs, …). But Planes are not the sole issue. Trains, boats (either river’s or coaster’s), cars, buses, taxis, motorbikes, … enable extended domestic and international exchanges of potential vectors (either individuals, animals or goods) To respond to this situational analysis, the French Society for Disaster Medicine, the West African Health Organisation and StratAdviser Ltd suggest funding an Ebola Rapid Reflection Force according to Patrick Lagadec principles1. The objective of this Ebola Rapid Reflection Force is not to find “the right script”, “the right answer”, but to sketch out the maps that could help to muddle through the uncharted waters of this outbreak. Up to now, we have been entirely focused on the answers – the WHO’s roadmap as an example – now we must shift to the questions and to invent new intelligence, attitude, and practice for a chaotic situation2,3. It is time to set a relevant doctrine regarding the management of the Ebola Outbreak, then to elaborate the related efficient strategy in order to elicit the proper tactical response. In other words, we need to clarify the Doctrinal, Strategic and Tactical issues of the Outbreak: Doctrinal issue: 1 Patrick Lagadec. A new cosmology of risks and crises time for a radical shift in paradigm and practice. cahier de recherche 2008-08. 2008. <hal-00338386> 2 Lagadec, Patrick (2007), “Over the edge of the world”, Crisis Response Journal, vol. 3, issue 4, September 2007, pages 48-49. 3 Cabinet Office (2008): The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom – Security in an interdependent world, HMSO.
- 2. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK Registered in England No 6322224 contact@stratadviser.com phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510 2 • What are the ethical, public health and geopolitical / economical / sociological / psychological impacts that we want to prevent Strategic issues: • What are the objectives that we want to achieve? • What are the endpoints we want to reach? • What are the criteria that will tell us that the crisis is over? • what are the limitations of the European/USA resources (methodological, logistical, manpower, financial, ...) • what should we plan according to the answers of the above queries? • how should we conduct according to the the answers of the above queries? Tactical issues: • should we or shouldn't we (what is the benefit/risk ratio) bring back Ebola cases within the Schengen or North American space? The Ebola Rapid Reflection Force would fill the gaps as an expert group to assist those in charge at WHO, World Bank, UN, NAFTA, EU, ECOWAS, … levels. In order to run such a Ebola Rapid Reflection Force we would need a chairman, an acting secretary, members, communication tools, resources (methodological, logistical, manpower, financial, …) The Ebola Rapid Reflection Force would not start from scratch. Currently StratAdviser Ltd thanks to a covenant with WAHO and the SFMC, contributes to the cross interpretation of available epidemiological, factual, medical, economical, sociological, .. data and provide an update every 10 days. Thanks to the joint SFMC and StratAdviser Ltd Think Tank of more than 500 experts of emergency response, BCNR, Crisis management, Vaccine development, litigation … from British, French and other European as well as West African public and private bodies, the Ebola Rapid Reflection Force would be readily available should appropriate funding be available. Key actors of the Ebola Rapid Reflection Force • Dr Jan-Cedric Hansen Member of the Board of StratAdviser Ltd, Ebola Consultant for the West African Health Organisation • Gal Henri Julien President of the French Society of Disaster Medicine • Dr Franck Van Trimpont Chairman of the European Council for Disaster Medicine • M Patrick Lagadec World known consultant on Crisis Management
- 3. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK Registered in England No 6322224 contact@stratadviser.com phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510 3 Costing of the ERRF 1. Ebola Outbreak Update every 10 days Compilation of data gathered from ECOWAS/WAHO, WHO, CDC, InVS, MSF, Red Cross, Ordre de Malte - analysis of data - editing of update – dissemination of the “Dynamic Vision of the Ebola Outbreak” newsletter £ 61,416 2. Everyday Ebola Think Tank management Monitoring of main media sources regarding Ebola – daily contribution to the Ebola Outbreak Management Group which count 431 members and weekly contribution on other social media such as Public Health Early Warning Group (3,705 members); Google +; Facebook… £ 70,968 3. ERRF Formal Session Meeting of the ERRF key actors with additional experts in order to elaborate appropriate and useful responses regarding the doctrinal, strategic and tactical issues of the West African Ebola Outbreak £ 84,464 4. Ebola Outbreak Annual Meeting Organisation of annual meeting (2 days) in Paris, 100 attendees (2 to 3 representatives/body: health authority, foreign affairs, other) of EU, UN, WB, BGF, MSF, Red Cross, Ordre de Malte, USA, Canada, F, S, DK, D, I, UK, B, L, CH, ECOWAS, UA, COMEDS, PHE, SSA, MINSAN, SFMC, ECDM, sponsors, …) in order to discuss doctrine and strategy, share update about the outbreak, anticipate potential scenarios and acknowledge achievements £ 586,780 5. ERRF Road Book & Quarterly report Compilation, editing and publication of RFF or Ebola meeting minutes, dissemination among members, health authorities, journalists and social media £ 87,310 6. 24/7 experts pool Permanent pool of 3 experts ready to move to any destination to respond to specific needs (implies to manage a larger permanent pool of 33 experts “on call” for a month/year - estimation of one 5 days mission/quarter) £ 159,255
- 4. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK Registered in England No 6322224 contact@stratadviser.com phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510 4 Should you consider to provide a financial contribution to this initiative please contact us: StratAdviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House, London, W1J 6BD UK Phone: +44 (0) 207 8874510 Fax: +44 (0) 207 8876001 contact@stratadviser.com