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Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
8-1
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Education.
Chapter 08
Problem Solving, Decision Making, and
Creativity
I. Chapter Overview
Learning Objectives
8.1 Identify the steps in the rational model of decision making.
8.2 Discuss ways people make compromises in following the decision-making model.
8.3 Describe guidelines for making decisions.
8.4 Explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software can help in
making decisions.
8.5 Discuss advantages and disadvantages of making decisions in groups.
8.6 Describe guidelines for group decision making.
8.7 Describe guidelines for thinking creatively.
8.8 Discuss how supervisors can establish and maintain a creative work climate.
8.9 Identify ways to overcome barriers to creativity.
Clark Wigley, a management consultant, says that, “success does not equal no problems (as in ‘If I
were a good manager, I would have no problems’). Success is having and solving the right problems.”
Problem solving requires making good decisions. Using a rational model of decision-making improves
the likelihood of reaching good decisions. The rational model presented includes: identify the
problem, identify the alternative solutions, gather and organize facts, evaluate the alternatives, choose
and implement the best alternative, get feedback and take corrective action.
People may try to take a simpler approach to decision-making by considering only the alternatives that
readily come to mind. They may just want to meet minimum standards or use subjective methods to
select an alternative. Human compromises to the rational decision-making process include simplicity,
bounded rationality, subjective rationality, rationalization, personal perspective, recency syndrome,
and stereotyping.
When making decisions, supervisors should consider the consequences of the decision. When the
consequences of a decision are great, the supervisor should take more time in readying the decision.
On the other hand, in a crisis, the supervisor must make a decision quickly.
There are tools available to help the supervisor select among alternative solutions. The probability
theory, the decision-making tree and related software aid supervisors in selecting the best solution.
Resources available to supervisors in making good decisions are their employees and peers. Using the
Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor
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Education.
assistance of a group will increase the information and number of ideas for solutions. Also, people
who are involved in developing a solution are more likely to support the implementation of the
solution. A disadvantage of group problem solving is that it usually takes longer than individual
decision-making. Other disadvantages include the cost to the organization, inferior decision making
owing to a small group dominating the decision-making process, and groupthink.
Solving a problem may require a new, creative solution. Creative thinking develops a broad store of
information related to the problem. Supervisors can increase their own creativity by setting aside time
in which they can let their mind wander. Taking a break can be helpful when ideas don’t seem to be
flowing.
Widespread creativity among employees can be a valuable asset in coming up with new ideas to solve
problems. Supervisors should show they value creativity. They should listen to and encourage
suggestions. Some of the barriers to creativity are fear of failure, excessive busyness, and isolation. To
overcome these barriers, supervisors need to remember that failing inevitably accompanies trying. The
supervisor should not place blame but acknowledge the effort of employees and continue to search for
better solutions.
A Supervision Challenge: Creative Problem-Solving at Dirty Lemon
Teaching notes:
The opening case discusses Dirty Lemon, a Brooklyn based beverage company that sells directly to
customers through text messaging. The case presents the following two questions.
1. What problem solving and decision making strategies will the founders of Dirty Lemon
continue to need and rely upon?
Student’s answers will vary. A decision tree may be used to initially analyze any capacity
upgrades needed with the addition of new customers.
2. How can you apply their ability to think creatively to your own work as a supervisor?
Student’s answer will vary widely here. A discussion would bring out many suggestions and
viewpoints students would not ordinarily hear.
The case is again referred to in the Skills Module – Part Two: Skill-Building exercise at the end of the
chapter.
II. Teaching the Concepts by Learning Objectives
Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
8-3
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Education.
Learning Objective 8.1: Identify the steps in the rational model of decision-making.
1. Key Term:
Decision: A choice from among available alternatives
2. Teaching Notes:
A decision is a choice from among available alternatives. Solving problems involves making a
series of decisions: deciding that something is wrong, deciding what the problem is, and deciding
how to solve it. Successful problem solving depends on good decisions.
Much of a supervisor’s job consists of making decisions that cover all the functions of
management. In many cases, supervisors make decisions without giving any thought to the
process of deciding. A supervisor automatically does something because it feels right or because
he or she always has handled that problem that way. Even though making many decisions seems
automatic, supervisors can improve the way they make them by understanding how the decision-
making process works in theory and in practice.
The rational model of decision-making includes the following steps:
• Identify the problem
• Identify alternative solutions
• Gather and organize facts
• Evaluate alternatives
• Choose and implement the best alternative
• Get feedback and take corrective action
3. Teaching examples to identify the steps in the rational model of decision-making:
The text provides a rough outline of a decision-making process made by Dave Frantz, the
supervisor of a group of workers for a janitorial service. Dave works long hours to accomplish his
job. Big problems like Dave’s are often the cumulative effect of many small problems. The
following will give additional detail for the example.
Identify the problem: The symptom of Dave’s problem is the long hours he must put in to satisfy
the needs of his job and his boss’s demands. As indicated in the text, he had already determined
that he worked hard and did not waste time. To understand better how he used his time, Dave
kept a log to indicate how much time was spent on each of his tasks. After several days it was
obvious that a large portion of his time was spent on paperwork. Also, as a result of his log, he
was able to determine that he was not giving importance to some parts of his job. For example, he
was unable to spend as much time on training as he would have liked.
The paperwork is the result of forms and check sheets that are submitted by the workers for
quality assurance records, billing information, payroll, and safety records. Each job has a job
order and check sheet to assure the customer receives what is ordered. Billing information is
Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor
8-4
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Education.
taken from the job order check sheet and a summary is prepared for accounting. Each worker
must keep a daily time record and expense record sheet. The payroll is prepared from the
summary Dave provides along with the original records that are also sent to the accounting
department. In addition, records are kept on the chemicals used in the cleaning process and all the
reported accidents.
Just finding that a lot of time was spent on paperwork was not enough to solve the problem. Dave
went on to analyze the paperwork to determine more specifically the use of his time. (Refer to
graph below “Analysis of Time Used for Paperwork”).
Dave now has information that will help him focus on potential solutions.
Identify alternative solutions: It appears to Dave that the hours spent calculating and preparing the
reports is the place to concentrate his efforts. If he could cut this time in half he could reduce his
workload by nine hours. Alternatives considered by Dave were to delegate the work to someone
else and automate all or part of the task. Before Dave could reach a decision, he carefully
investigated all the alternatives.
Gather and organize facts: Dave first thought he could get someone else to do the work. Hiring a
clerical person was out of the question. The top management said this was not possible. There
was no money to hire another person. Would a temporary employee solve his problem? Could
several other employees do the work? This was not possible because of the confidentiality
involved in the billing process and the fact that the summary still had to be done by one person.
Analysis of Time Used for Paperwork
Tasks Hours Used Percent of
Hours
Job summary reports 15 50.0
Billing reports 5 16.7
Time/payroll reports 2.5 8.3
Expense reports (mileage and meal allowance) 5 16.7
Safety reports 2.5 8.3
Total 30 100.0
Analysis of Paperwork Tasks
Tasks Hours Used Percent of
Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
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Education.
Hours
Calculations and writing summary reports 18 66.7
Correcting mistakes and omissions of raw data 12 33.3
Total 30 100.0
Dave then investigated the possibility of automating a part of the job. Could he somehow use the
bar-coding method used in the warehouse? This was not feasible at this time.
If he had to continue to do the task using the same basic method, what was available to help him?
Dave talked to the accounting department and the order department. Those departments used
computers to speed up their work. They were also valuable for summarizing data and creating
easily accessible records. Dave found the cost of the computer that would fulfill his needs. He
estimated it would reduce the time spent by 30 percent immediately, and eventually would reduce
the time by 50 to 60 percent of the original time.
Evaluate alternatives: A temporary employee would help him catch up and give him some extra
hours in the short run. A permanent employee was not possible in the foreseeable future.
A computer seemed to be the best solution. It could create the summary report from the data
entered. There would also be a permanent and easily accessible record of the job orders and other
data that could be used for other purposes in the future. The up-front cost of the computer was
high, but it would be a one-time cost.
Choose and implement the best alternative: Dave made a request for the computer. He provided
his boss with all of the information leading up to his decision. His boss was impressed with the
thoroughness of his investigation. The estimation of reduction in time was realistic. The
recommendation was approved.
Get feedback: Dave continued to monitor and keep records of the time he spent on this part of his
job. The computer was a big help. It also pointed out the need to standardize record keeping by
the employees. As a result, Dave had a meeting with the employees and emphasized the need for
complete and accurate record keeping on their part. The employees also made recommendations
on how the job orders could be improved to help them keep good records for the company.
The latest result of the problem-solving effort was the documentation of an overall reduction of
60 percent of the paperwork time.
4. Exercise to identify the steps in the rational model of decision-making:
Refer to the “Exercise” below for Learning Objective 8.2, starting on page 8-8, and discuss ways
people make compromises in following the decision-making model. The exercise includes an
application of the rational model of decision-making and the ways people make compromises in
Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor
8-6
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Education.
following the model.
Learning Objective 8.2: Discuss ways people make compromises in following the decision-
making model.
1. Key Terms:
Bounded Rationality: Choosing an alternative that meets minimum standards of acceptability
Recency Syndrome: The tendency to remember more easily those events that have occurred
recently
Stereotypes: Generalized, fixed images of others
2. Teaching Notes:
Often supervisors have neither the time nor the desire to follow all these steps to a decision. Even
when supervisors try to follow these steps, they often have trouble thinking of all the alternatives
or gathering all the facts they need.
Given these human and organizational limitations, supervisors—like all decision makers—make
compromises most of the time. A supervisor who is aware of the kinds of compromises people
make is more apt to be aware of when he or she is using them. In addition, a supervisor may find
that though some kinds of compromises are useful in some situations, others are to be avoided as
much as possible.
Reasons for compromises:
• Simplicity: Usually people simply mull over their experiences and consider ways they have
handled similar problems in the past. The downside of this approach is that it tends to
bypass new and innovative solutions, even though they sometimes deliver the best results.
• Bounded rationality: When time, cost, or other limitations, such as the tendency to
simplify, make finding the best alternative impossible or unreasonable, decision makers
settle for an alternative they consider good enough. Choosing an alternative that meets
minimum standards of acceptability is a form of bounded rationality; that is, a decision
maker places limits, or bounds, on the rational model of decision-making. The decision
maker considers alternatives only until one is found that meets his or her minimum criteria
for acceptability. Figure 8.3 in the text shows the process of bounded rationality.
• Subjective rationality: When people analyze alternatives, they tend to rely on their intuition
and gut instincts instead of collecting impartial data. Even when the process for arriving at
the decision is otherwise rational, the numbers used in the process may be subjective and
thus not completely accurate.
Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
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Education.
• Rationalization: People tend to favor solutions that they believe they can justify to others.
• Personal perspective: People may assume that everyone sees things the way they do. They
think if something is clear to them it is also clear to everyone else. To avoid this problem,
decision makers must find out what other people are thinking and then consider those
views.
• Recency Syndrome: An event should not carry more weight simply because it is more
recent. This is one reason decision makers need to consider the alternatives as fully as is
reasonable.
• Stereotyping: Rigid opinions about categories of people are called stereotypes and they
interfere with rational decision making, limiting a decision maker’s understanding of the
people involved. Stereotypes distort the truth that people offer a rich variety of individual
strengths and viewpoints.
3. Teaching examples to discuss ways people make compromises in following the decision-making
model:
The example of Dave Frantz used in the text and Learning Objective 8.1 can be used to
demonstrate the concepts discussed in this learning objective. Using the problem-solving model
discussed above will take some time to determine the best solution. Dave may want to
compromise or speed up the decision-making process. Dave may also have personal beliefs that
direct his decision-making process. The following are examples of some of the compromises
Dave may be tempted to make:
Simplicity—usually what people do is think over their experiences and consider some of the ways
similar problems have been handled in the past.
Dave could have simply decided that he didn’t have enough time to do all of his work and tried to
sell his boss on a solution that from his point of view is a simple solution, such as to hire a
clerical person to take care of the paperwork. After all, in the past when work piled up, they hired
someone to help out.
Bounded rationality—when it seems impossible or unreasonable to find the best alternative in the
universe, decision makers settle for an alternative they consider good enough.
Dave has decided that the workload is impossible or unreasonable and has set some minimum
standards. For example, he may do only the work that needs to be done on a timely basis, such as
payroll and billing, and let other paperwork remain unfinished until he is pressed for it.
Subjective rationality—alternatives that are the result of intuition and gut instincts, rather than
impartial data.
Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor
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Education.
Dave may act on intuition, such as thinking that the records are unnecessarily complicated and
simplification would allow the use of employee check sheets for accounting purposes. As a result
of this thinking, Dave may end up changing the record keeping system to eliminate some of his
part of the paperwork.
Rationalization—people tend to favor solutions that they believe they can justify to others.
Dave could decide to try to sell his boss on sending the paperwork directly from the employees to
the payroll, billing, and personnel departments without his review and summary of the
information. His rationale would be that his time is too valuable to waste on paperwork. He is an
experienced technician and his talents are best used in the field, not behind a desk. He is sure his
boss will agree with his argument.
Personal perspective—people assume that everyone sees things the way they do.
Personal perspective for Dave may further support the value of his talents and the waste of time
and talent on paperwork.
Recency Syndrome—an event should not carry more weight simply because it is more recent.
Last month, one of his peers was allowed to transfer part of her paperwork to a clerical employee.
Dave might remember this incident and ask for similar help for himself even though his manager
has consistently turned down such requests in the past.
Stereotyping—rigid opinions about categories of people distort the truth that people offer a rich
variety of individual strengths and viewpoints.
Dave may think that paperwork is secretarial work and secretaries are women. Therefore, a
secretary or a woman clerical employee should be doing the paperwork.
4. Exercise to discuss application of the rational model of decision-making (Learning Objective 8.1)
and ways people make compromises in following the decision-making model:
Students can apply the rational decision-making model to their personal life as well as their
workplace. Set up the situation, then apply the rational decision model, and give examples of
specific compromises that can be made based on the six reasons listed above. The exercise is best
used as a homework assignment
Steps to using this exercise:
• Make each student a copy of Forms 8.2, on page 8-10, “Applying the Rational Model for
Decision-making” and 8.3, on page 8-11, “Compromises to the Rational Model for
Decision-making.” The student is to use the worksheets as a guide for the exercise.
Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
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Education.
Instructors can also ask students to hand them in as proof of completion of the assignment.
• Read the situation to the class and ask if they have any questions regarding the assignment
Form 8.2. A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and
the discussion about the project today made him or her to realize that he or she don’t have
time to do a good job on the project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on
this assignment or his or her final grade could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and
personal obligations. Use the rational model of decision-making to come up with three
alternative solutions. Then select the best alternative. Also indicate feedback and corrective
action. Use additional paper if necessary to show examples and explanations.
Form 8.3. A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and
the discussion about the project today made him or her to realize that he or she don’t have
time to do a good job on the project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on
this assignment or his or her final grade could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and
personal obligations. Instead of using the rational model of decision-making, give solutions
based on the seven reasons for compromise.
• The assignment requires students to explain specifically what they would do at each step of
the rational decision-making model. The responses should be similar to the teaching
example of Dave in Learning Objective 8.1.
• After students have finished the rational decision-making model, they will do the
compromise sheet that will indicate how the decisions for the specific problem would be
made using each of the compromises.
• If desired, hold a class discussion after the assignments have been completed.
o Ask students which of the worksheets was easiest to think about and complete.
o Ask students which method best represents the way they make decisions and what
advantages and problems may result from their problem-solving methods.
Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor
8-10
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Education.
Form 8.2
Applying the Rational Model for Decision-making
A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and the discussion about
the project today made him or her to realize that he or she doesn’t have time to do a good job on the
project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on this assignment or his or her final grade
could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and personal obligations. Use the rational model for
decision-making to come up with three alternative solutions. Then select the best alternative. Also
indicate feedback and corrective action. Use additional paper if necessary to show examples and
explanations.
The rational model of decision-making includes:
a. Identify the problem
b. Identify alternative solutions
c. Gather and organize facts
d. Evaluate alternatives
e. Choose and implement the best alternative
f. Get feedback
Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
8-11
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Education.
Form 8.3
Compromises to the Rational Model for Decision-making
A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and the discussion about
the project today made him or her to realize that he or she doesn’t have time to do a good job on the
project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on this assignment or his or her final grade
could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and personal obligations. Instead of using the rational
model of decision-making, give solutions based on the seven reasons for compromise.
1. Simplicity
2. Bounded rationality
3. Subjective rationality
4. Rationalization
5. Personal perspective
6. Recency syndrome
7. Stereotyping
Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor
8-12
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Education.
Learning Objective 8.3: Describe guidelines for making decisions.
1. Teaching Notes:
Should a supervisor always avoid human compromises in making decisions? Not necessarily. In
some situations, seeking to match the rational model would just be too costly and time
consuming.
Guidelines for making decisions in the workplace:
Consider the consequences: When the consequences of a decision are great, a supervisor should
spend more time on the decision, following the rational model of decision-making and seeking to
include as many alternatives as possible. When the consequences of the decision are slight, a
supervisor should limit the time and money spent in identifying and evaluating alternatives.
Respond quickly in a crisis: In a crisis, a supervisor should quickly select the course of action that
seems best. This is an appropriate application of bounded rationality. Instead of waiting to
evaluate other alternatives, the supervisor should begin implementing the solution and
interpreting feedback to see whether the solution is working.
Inform the manager: A supervisor’s manager does not want to hear about every minor decision
the supervisor makes each day. However, the manager does need to know what is happening in
the department, so the supervisor should inform the manager about major decisions including
those that affect meeting departmental objectives, responses to crisis, and any controversial
decision.
When the manager needs to know about a decision, it is usually smart for a supervisor to discuss
the problem before reaching and announcing the decision. The manager may see an aspect of the
problem that has escaped the supervisor’s attention or have different priorities that lead to a veto
or modification of the supervisor’s solution. In a crisis, the supervisor may not have time to
consult with the manager and will have to settle for discussing the decision as soon as possible
afterward.
Be decisive yet flexible: Sometimes it is difficult to say which alternative solution is most likely to
succeed or will bring the best results. Two alternatives may look equally good, or perhaps none of
the choices looks good enough. In such cases, a supervisor may find it hard to move beyond
studying the alternatives to selection and implementation one of them. However, avoiding a
decision is merely another way to decide to do nothing, and doing nothing is usually not the best
choice.
Being decisive means reaching a decision within a reasonable amount of time. The supervisor
should pick the alternative that looks best (or at least acceptable) within the appropriate
timeframe for the decision, and then focus on implementing it.
Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
8-13
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Education.
A decisive supervisor quickly clears his or her desk of routine matters, promptly referring them to
the proper people, and keeps work moving. A decisive supervisor assumes complete
responsibility for getting the facts needed when he or she must solve a problem. Finally, a
decisive supervisor keeps his or her employees informed of what they are expected to do and how
they are progressing relative to their objectives.
Being decisive does not mean a supervisor is blind to signs that he or she has made a mistake.
When implementing a solution, a supervisor needs to seek feedback that indicates whether the
solution is working. If the first attempt at solving a problem fails, a supervisor must be flexible
and try another approach.
Avoid decision-making traps: Some supervisors seem to delight in emergency deadlines and
crises, and they act as though each decision is a life-or-death issue. But good planning can avert
many crises; life-or-death issues are not the usual stuff of a supervisor’s job. A supervisor must be
able to put each issue into perspective so that he or she can calmly evaluate the alternatives and
devote an appropriate amount of time to finding a solution.
Another trap for decision makers is responding inappropriately to failure. When a supervisor
makes a wrong decision, the supervisor will look best if he or she acknowledges the mistake. At
the same time, supervisors need not agonize over their mistakes. The constructive approach is to
learn whatever lesson the mistake can teach and then move on.
By trying to save time or work independently, some supervisors fail to draw on easily available
information. One important source of information is precedent. Have some of the alternatives
been tried before? If so, what was the outcome? By consulting with other members of the
organization or outside experts, a supervisor often can find readily available data that will
improve his or her decision.
Sometimes supervisors are tempted to promise too much. This mistake traps many supervisors
because the promises keep people happy. Another trap is to assume there is one “right” decision.
2. Teaching examples to describe guidelines for making decisions:
The example of Dave Frantz used in the text and Learning Objective 8.1 can be used to
demonstrate the concepts discussed in this learning example. The guidelines discussed in this
learning objective are also important for Dave to consider in finding a solution to his problem.
• Consider the consequences: When the consequences of a decision are great, the supervisor
should spend more time on the decision.
The consequences of Dave’s decision are saving his valuable time and the cost of the
solution. These two consequences are important and should result in spending enough time
to do a thorough investigation.
Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor
8-14
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Education.
• Respond quickly in a crisis: In a crisis, the supervisor should quickly select the course of
action that seems best.
Dave’s problem is not a crisis at this time, but it is serious. If he doesn’t plan for the
elimination of this problem, it may soon reach a more critical stage. At that time he may
have to get additional help from other employees. He may have to hire a temporary person
or take someone away from his or her work.
• Inform the manager: The supervisor’s manager doesn’t want to hear about every minor
decision, but the manager does need to know what is happening in the department. The
supervisor should inform the manager about major decisions.
Perhaps Dave could have acquired a computer for his office on loan before he informed his
manager. He may be very sure that his manager will agree with his decision. But since the
computer is going to be an additional expenditure for the company, Dave should inform his
manager of his decision and the rationale behind the decision before he takes the next step.
• Be decisive but not inflexible: Sometimes it is difficult to say which alternative solution is
best, or perhaps none of the choices looks good enough.
If Dave finds through his continued monitoring of the new system that he is still spending
too much time on paperwork, he should review his other alternatives and perhaps
investigate additional alternatives. An additional alternative may be an improved software
package for the computer. Remember Dave’s original problem was the time it took to do
the paperwork. If the first solution is not really a solution, he should continue to search for
a better solution.
• Avoid decision-making traps: Avoid making a major issue out of each decision. Good
planning can avert many crises, and life-and-death issues are not the usual stuff of the
supervisor’s job. Put each issue into perspective so that alternatives can be evaluated and
an appropriate amount of time can be devoted to finding the solution.
Obviously, Dave’s problem is not going to go away by itself. The longer he puts it off, the
more he is neglecting other important parts of his job.
3. Exercise to describe guidelines for making decisions:
Refer to “Exercise” below for Learning Objective 8.4 on page 8-16, “Explain how probability
theory, decision trees, and computer software can help in making decisions.” The exercise
includes an application of the guidelines for decision-making concepts.
Learning Objective 9.4: Explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software
Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity
8-15
Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill
Education.
can help in making decisions.
1. Key Terms:
Probability Theory: A body of techniques for comparing the consequences of possible decisions
in a risk situation
Decision Tree: A graph that helps decision makers use probability theory by showing the
expected values of decisions in varying circumstances
Decision-Making Software: A computer program that leads the user through the steps of the
formal decision-making process
2. Teaching Notes:
To make decisions about risk situations, a supervisor can compare the consequences of several
decisions by using probability theory. To use this theory, a supervisor needs to know or be able
to estimate the value of each possible outcome and the likelihood (probability) that this outcome
will occur.
In the real world, most decisions involving probability are complex. Sorting out the relative value
of the choices can be easier with the use of a graph. A supervisor may find it helpful to use a
decision tree for making decisions in risk situations. A decision tree is a graph that helps decision
making by showing the expected values of decisions in varying circumstances.
Some computer programs have been developed to help people make decisions. A decision-
making software leads the user through the steps of the formal decision-making process. A
database management program, such as Access, IBM DB2, or Oracle Database, systematically
stores large amounts of data and makes it easy for the user to request and retrieve specific
categories of data.
3. Teaching examples to explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software can
help in making decisions:
Text Figure 8.5 “A Simple Decision Tree” illustrates a simple decision tree showing the available
alternatives which stem from the decision points. In this figure, a sales supervisor is trying to
decide whether to hire a new salesperson at a salary of $40,000. Assuming there is a 60 percent
chance of sales increasing if the supervisor hires a salesperson (and a 40 percent chance of sales
remaining steady), the expected value of hiring is 0.60($210,000) + 0.40($160,000), or $190,000.
The expected value of not hiring is $225,000. According to the greater expected value for not
hiring, the supervisor should decide that it makes more economic sense not to hire a salesperson
at this time.
4. Exercise to explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software can help in
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made. He had gained his so-called “second wind” thereby recouping his
adroitness and elasticity.
With the consummate skill of a scientific boxer, several times he feigned
signs of weakness, by giving false openings, of which his infuriated
antagonist attempted to avail himself, thinking the Professor to be on the
verge of collapse, only to receive in return several well directed right and
left swings on the jaw. These staggered Don Seville to his knees, but he was
allowed to rise to his feet by the generous tolerance of the Professor, and the
consciousness of this humility caused him to wage the attack with reckless
fury. With vulgar oaths he began to resort to foul tactics, trying to hit the
defender beyond the limits of decent pugilism.
Don Seville’s endurance had now come to its end. His youth, dissipated by
debauchery, was undermined of its stability, and in spite of the wide
disparity of ages the old man had Don Seville absolutely in his power. It
was time, he thought, to terminate these proceedings, so distasteful and
undignified to him, but the only way he saw was, to lay aside the tactics of
self defense, and adopt those of a punitive retaliation.
With keen alertness he watched for an opportunity and when Don Seville,
almost crazed with anger, rushed on him for a clinch, entirely oblivious of
the intention of the Professor, the latter gave a sudden shift to his position
by swinging his body away from his antagonist Don Seville blindly
followed him in his determination of a desperate onslaught. It was then that
the venerable Allenson shot out a driving “right upper cut” to the jaw.
This was the finale! Don Seville staggered to the rails and toppling over fell
with a splash into the limpid waters below.
The Final Blow
The Professor promptly jumped down the embankment and pulled out his
still unconscious adversary. If abandoned in that condition the young man
might have drowned in the shallow waters. The Professor began to do all in
his power to restore him to consciousness; just at that time a farmhand on
horseback appeared on the scene, and by his aid the Academy ambulance
was summoned and Don Seville was taken to the military hospital.
CHAPTER VI
Historical Events of the 20th Century
(Concluded)
A subdued applause greeted the Professor the next day when he entered the
lecture room to conclude his review of events of the 20th Century. Many
floral bouquets were tossed to him by his fair admirers, who were
augmented from the other classes, on account of the full detail of his
encounter with Don Seville having been spread throughout the Seminary.
The Professor, despite some discoloration on his benign visage, flushed
crimson like a bashful child and bowed his acknowledgements, as he began
his discourse thus:
1927
Colonization of Central Africa
A system of general colonization on a large scale was, during this year,
undertaken by the British Government. By a new homestead law,
embodying liberal inducements, a vast army of colonists from all over the
British dominions were transported to Central Africa. Thousands upon
thousands of persons from the congested districts of London, Glasgow,
Liverpool and other large cities, were persuaded to leave their limited
surroundings and uncongenial atmosphere, and go to the promising new
land, teeming with boundless opportunities.
Almost the entire inhabitants of the isolated islands of the Shetlands and
Orkneys, who led an indolent life and eked a meagre existence by fisheries,
joined this grand trek to Central Africa. Many thousands from the Canadian
provinces and from the United States of America joined this exodus, as did
also thousands from the East Indies. The thorough and admirable manner in
which this laudable movement was handled mitigated the hardships of
transportation, and thus within a few years more than five million, poor,
homeless and indolent people were given homesteads of their own,
awakening them into energy and thrift.
Within a decade the population of Central Africa reached the grand total of
25,000,000 industrious, loyal citizens, forming a flourishing dependency,
enjoying home rule and liberty, under the protection of British laws and
arms.
1928
The Conflagration of the Atlantic Ocean
One of the most wonderful and at the same time awful conflagrations of its
kind on record in the history of the world, was that of the apparent burning
of the Atlantic Ocean, covering an area one hundred and fifty miles wide. It
started in the Gulf of Mexico and, like a prairie fire, only a thousand times
more furious, this floating furnace consumed scores of vessels that came
into its fiery path.
A few weeks previous to this awful holocaust, the petroleum wells in Texas,
New Mexico and Louisiana had run dry, on account of a severe earthquake.
It was argued by scientists that, by some subterranean convulsions the oil
well fissures had shifted their course, into the waters of the gulf, and the
vast accumulation of the inflammable fluid, floating on the ocean, had been
ignited, either by an electric spark during a thunderstorm, or by some
combustible being thrown from a sailing craft.
1929
The Court of Labor
In this year was completed and dedicated the Court of Labor at Washington.
This was an imposing building, in which all the momentous labor problems
were discussed before a tribunal of disinterested justices, through the able
representatives of each faction, without resorting to disastrous strikes,
lockouts and disturbances of public comfort.
One of the most remarkable features of this Court of Arbitration was, the
colossal group erected between the two grand entrances to the building.
This was not a semi-nude female figure with bandaged eyes, holding in her
hand the conventional pair of scales, but a Herculean figure of Uncle Sam
with his starry hat and glorious chin whiskers, having three faces, three eyes
and three arms. Before him were a group of three figures which represented
respectively Capital, Consumer and Labor. In each figure were his eyes
wide open and alert, bent with searching scrutiny upon the person in front,
to whom he dispensed the just share of each, from a huge cornucopia at his
feet.
1930
Landlordism In America
One of the most scandalous evils which had crept gradually in the United
States, and eventually became a source of grave anxiety to the government,
was a system of Landlordism amongst the very rich. While the general
public were slumbering in blissful ignorance, this coterie of avaricious
syndicates and multi-millionaires had mysteriously become possessors of
vast tracts of lands, in every state of the Union. Some of these holdings
comprised hundreds and thousands of square miles in extent.
Miles and miles of shore-fronts, immense areas of forests, whole mountains
and lakes, through the conniving, corrupt state and county officials, had
passed into the hands of private individuals who, in return had become
extremely arrogant in their treatment of the public, by unreasonable
restriction.
There seemed to be a mocking sarcasm in the fact when common people
sang the National Anthem “America,” celebrating its hills and rills, while at
every turn of the road, at every shore-front, lake, hill and valley, mountain
and forests, the forbidding sign, “No Trespassing Under Penalty,” met their
eyes, or the repulsive muzzle of the Winchester was thrust into their faces
by private watchmen.
This state of affairs had reached such desperate straits, that the public
suddenly awakened on the subject. It started first by the protest of the
rougher element in the mountain districts, who defied the hired authorities
with an organized force. The people committed acts of violence and
incendiarism it is true, but by their overt acts they awakened the dormant
public to realize the enormity of this scandalous condition of deeding away
to millionaires, without the consent of the commonwealth, the common and
inalienable heritage of its citizens.
By a unanimous uprising and public mandate the Federal and State
authorities were compelled to condemn and confiscate these stolen public
lands. New laws were then enacted by which the acquiring of extensive
lands was limited, except for agricultural purposes.
1931
The Discovery of the North Pole
The North Pole, that mysterious geographical locality which for centuries
had baffled scientists and explorers, was located and verified by the
combined efforts of American and British Governments. The expedition
was on a gigantic scale, the force of the explorers being in round numbers
two thousand five hundred persons who by a system of depots and rendez-
vous for supplies, formed almost a continuous chain.
All the latest devices in the form of dynamo-vans and motor-sleds, with
balloon attachments were employed in the undertaking. Strange to say the
casualties did not exceed more than ten per cent of the expeditionary force.
It was discovered, to the great surprise of scientists, that the locality was
nothing more than a plateau, studded with cones of ice!
1932
Cure for Laziness
The discovery, by an American, of a germicide for indolence was
announced during this year, by which lethargic persons were regenerated
into acute activity. It was a concentrated double extract of pitch-blend,
containing the radio active element, and when applied to certain parts of the
body, it instantaneously transformed the feeling of laziness and ennui, into
one of hustling energy and alertness.
The negroes of the Southern States, the natives of tropical countries and
also officials in the police departments of large cities, were the ones
benefitted by this “golden medical discovery!”
1933
Capital Punishment
The abolishment of capital punishment in many States of the Union,
through the impulsive sentimentality of a minority, had given birth to an old
time evil, that of feudalism. It was well for people preaching mercy for
murderers, when somebody else was the victim, but when the crime was
perpetrated against one of their homes, their feelings were entirely changed.
The increase of vendetta was the result, and it occurred with such a
lamentable degree of frequency, that the old uncontrovertible Mosaic law,
blood for blood, and life for life was re-established.
1934
Abolition of Hereditary Titles In England
The agitation for the abolition of hereditary titles in England caused a crisis
in the political and social world of Great Britain. The degeneracy of
hereditary nobles, their utter incapacity adequately to fill the positions left
by their illustrious ancestors, to the detriment and retrogression of the
British government, was the main cause of bringing about this bloodless
internecine revolution.
Despite the most strenuous opposition by the friends of the nobles, a new
law was added to the revised Magna Charta, by an overwhelming public
demand. With few exceptions, it nullified the existing titles, and elevated to
peerage only worthy citizens for life, on condition of the good behavior of
the incumbent. This excellent law brought fresh and saving blood into the
political and civic life of England. The movement precipitated the
abandonment of the House of Lords and created in its stead a body called
Senatorium, whose members were elected by the tax-paying citizens.
1935
Blowing the Earth Into Fragments
The most remarkable sensation of this year was that of a German scientist
and statistician who, after a thorough investigation and mathematical
calculation, announced his conclusions, that it was in the range of collective
human power, that is, by the combined aid of labor, time, money and high
explosives, to rend the earth in twain, or into fragments, and thus create
new planets in space, producing new climatic conditions, fauna and life,
adaptable to their new positions in the solar system.
1937
An American Penal Colony
The census of this year revealed an unprecedented number of evil-doers,
causing great anxiety to the Government. There were recorded ninety-two
thousand criminals in prisons and seventy-six thousand paupers in the poor
houses. This army of public charges cost the State authorities more than
thirty million dollars for their maintenance.
At last by the stress of popular agitation the government adopted a policy of
penal colonization. Selecting a desirable island in the Philippines, the
Federal authorities succeeded in transporting to the island, within three
years, and with half the cost of their maintenance at home, one hundred
thousand of these unfortunate malefactors.
Here, they were given every facility and aid, for acquiring and building of
homes, farms and factories, and within ten years, under a wise military
administration more than half of that number were reclaimed, forming a
prosperous and loyal community in the Eastern Hemisphere.
1938
The Great Telescope
With the munificent contributions to a general fund, amounting to two
million dollars, by the English, American and French Governments, the
greatest telescope which the world has ever known was constructed in
Paris. Its lenses measured more than two meters in diameter which,
combined with a mammoth revolving camera obscura, brought the moon
and some of the planets within the range of visual observation, revealing on
Venus and Mars the existence of vegetation and moving objects.
1939
The Earth An Electric Motor
Emil Flammarion, the worthy grandson of the eminent French astronomer,
demonstrated by an extremely clever mechanical contrivance in Vacuo, that
the Earth was merely an electric Motor in space!
1940
The Trend of Religious Thought
Religious thought or spiritual belief is not an invention of mortals. It is an
inborn attribute of the human mind. While man was in his savage or semi-
barbarous stage, the ethical and spiritual conceptions were correspondingly
crude and religious warfare predominated. With the advance of civilization
its development kept pace with it until at the dawn of the twentieth century
it had undergone, by natural evolution, a marked metamorphosis.
It gradually divested itself of its legendary mysticism, fantastic dogmas and
spectacular schisms, and all intelligent thinkers promulgated a propaganda,
not of external forms of worship, but those uncontrovertible basic truths,
which always will hold.
It is true that in an era of commercial materialism great masses of people
embraced agnosticism and ethical culture, rejecting that supernatural
conception of a first cause of which they claimed their limited intellect had
a vague idea and was deeper than the hazy human comprehension, yet, the
shallow Ingersolian philosophy of attacking a force—which filled millions
with hope and goaded them to self-sacrifice, mercy and charity—without
substituting something better, was repudiated by the intelligent, and
appealed only to the abnormal and the foolish.
This tendency of materialism in religion continued unabated, until the
startling announcement of a German scientist—who claimed it was within
human power to rend the world in twain—also the marvelous revelation
through the mammoth telescope—by which was discovered moving objects
and vegetation in other planets—brought on an acute crisis. A tremendous
religious revival swept all over the world. It expanded the mental horizon of
human conceptions. The existence of living organism in other spheres came
within rational deductions. The possible existence of beings far superior in
intellect to ourselves, came within the limit of legitimate theorizations, and
the more men began to grasp with the co-operation of science, the infinite
vastness of the universe, with its numberless millions of habitable worlds,
the probability of an intelligent force of vast creative power came within the
scope of human understanding.
The forceful passage in the Holy Writ “that God created man in his own
image” became more and more lucid. Consequently the pantheism of the
old Greeks were revived with more clearness, and the existence of a
personal God somewhere in this boundless universe appealed to multitudes
with new zest.
“Pray, Professor, what is your opinion of a first cause?” ventured one of the
students.
“There are so many mysterious forces,” answered the Professor, “that
although we cannot see, yet we feel their power and are conscious of their
results. And as our mortal organism cannot conceive a thought which is
beyond its own limitations, the very idea of our thought of a first cause falls
within the range of human conceptions.
“When we gaze at an automobile, which is the creation of a creature, we see
a wonderful parallelism; its requirements to make it an active energy, bears
a strong analogy of its inventor, yet, an automobile with all its requirements
for power supplied, is a worthless mass, unless operated and guided by its
creator. Does not this vast universe with all its wonderful manifestations
suggest a creative force, which governs it?”
“Albeit, it is not within my province nor in my power to penetrate the veil”
continued the Professor, looking up in pensive mood. “But as the coral
protoplasm begins its edifice from the calcerous mire in the dark recesses of
the ocean, upwards through the murky and semi-transparent liquid, finally
reaches the pelucid surface, kisses the wave and sees the light, me-thinks
likewise, the spiritual perceptions of mankind which has grown from the
depths of savagery and through the maze of intolerance, dogmas and
schisms, will go onward in its evolution and perhaps our posterity will at
last penetrate the mystic veil and see the light,—God.”
1941
The Birthday Anniversary of Noted Centenarians
“Lithia Bingham,” “Young Dr. Bray” and “Sister Eddy” received the
homage and congratulations of millions of their admirers, on their hundred
and fiftieth birthday anniversary.
The remarkable longevity of this trio of Methuselahs was attributed, in the
case of the two first mentioned, to their own “cure all” concoctions, and the
last, to her scientific revelation of thinking that, there is no such thing as
pain or death!
“In closing this review of historical events,” said the Professor looking
around the auditorium, “there are a few other important happenings that
bring us to the present decade.
“The remarkable decadence of Germany under a Socialistic regime, a
doctrine, that although theoretically seems to be so desirably altruistic,
convincing, and in poetry sounds so well, but in practise has proved to be
detrimental to a life of strenuous efforts, and suicidal to individual
ambitions—conditions which are eminently essential to growing and
prosperous communities.
“The consequent exodus of Teutons to other parts of the world that
promised freedom to independent action.
“The political union of Spain and Portugal.
“The re-conquest by France of Alsace Lorain.
“The puerile uprising by a section of Irish people against England are still
fresh in our memory—and to which most of you have been eye-witnesses—
are some of the events worthy of record.”
Here the Professor, after a pause, changed his subject to future possibilities
and, presenting to the class in eloquent words a glowing, optimistic picture
of conditions for future generations, brought his discussion to a close. When
he stepped down from the rostrum he was at once surrounded by the entire
class and was tendered an impromptu but agreeable reception.
CHAPTER VII
The Regatta
There was still one great event before the closing of the academic year of
the Diana Seminary Seniors, in which the class had taken extraordinary
interest. It was the first time in the history of the Seminary that students
were to take part in aquatic sports against male contestants. The day for the
great handicap regatta—a four-oared affair—between the Senior class of the
Seminary and the Sophomore class of the West Point Military Academy
followed directly after graduation,—the class grade being the handicap
allowed to the Seminary girls.
Aurora and Margaret, after their avowal and covenant, were again in normal
condition, cheerful as of yore, and as they were the most available pair for
the aquatic contest, from the beginning they had been chosen unanimously
as the exponents of the class of 1960, and they went into the execution of
the sport with vim and enthusiasm.
As the event was a unique one, it had become the most lively topic of
conversation among the people, and long before it took place had caused
widespread interest in the country. Having been advertised and exploited
extensively in the daily press, it is needless to say that an unusually large
concourse of visitors had arrived by land and water to witness the classic
and unusual contest.
The course of the race was laid near Poughkeepsie and was in the shape of a
heart, that is, starting at a given point, side by side, they raced about half a
mile abreast, then one crew turning to port and the other to starboard,
diverging in a parabolic circle, passed each other in the center within a short
distance of the starting point, and making counter-circles started on the
home run, again abreast. (See diagram, page 90.)
The personnel of the Seminary crew consisted of the following young
ladies: Aurora Cunningham, coxswain; Margaret MacDonald, stroke;
Horatia Seymour, number one; Eunice Ward, number two; and Norma
Southworth at the bow.
The “Diana” Course.
When the preliminary signal to make ready was given, both the crews
rowed gracefully to the starting ground and began to manoeuvre. At the
sharp report of the signal gun, the two shells shot past the line almost
abreast, amidst deafening acclamation from the spectators on the shore and
the shrill tooting and whistling of the sailing craft of every description that
had formed almost a compact circle around the course.
The calm and pleasant weather had allowed the waters of the Hudson to run
as smooth as a looking-glass, except for the turbulence caused by the ever
restless pleasure boats thronged with sightseers, each endeavoring to get a
better vantage point of the impending struggle. As the contest progressed,
the interest of the watchers began to increase. Thousands of field and
marine glasses and lorgnettes were leveled at the racers as they sped along
the course.
The teams had now reached the point of divergence, and had begun to
recede from each other at every stroke on their parabolic circuit, the boys
turning to port and the girls to starboard. But alas! Hardly had the Seminary
shell advanced half a dozen strokes when, by some unexpected and
inexplicable accident, Margaret’s feet slipped off the foot guard and, in an
instant, she was thrown into the waters of the Hudson, the shell meanwhile
gliding swiftly by.
Instantly the air was filled by a deafening cry of dismay from the throats of
thousands of eager spectators, coupled with piercing whistles of the
steamboats. What a moment of anguish for the Diana Seminary girls! What
a shocking sense of humiliation for the fair contestants! To think that in an
event so crucial for their honor and standing, such an unforeseen disaster
should overwhelm them!
On the “Homestretch”
But fate was with them. It was decreed that such a catastrophe should
happen in order to heighten the grandeur of their ultimate victory. While the
spectators were still paralyzed with the awful situation before them, there
was activity and heroism among the Diana mermaids in the shell. The
instant Aurora with her alert eyes saw Margaret’s mishap, she realized at
once the situation and before the shell had glided past, she leaned over and
caught Margaret by the hair. By the same impulsive and almost animal
agility, Margaret grasped Aurora’s arm and in another moment, with less
loss of time than would seem possible, she was again in the shell. In a
twinkling of an eye the breathless girl had resumed her place at the oar as if
nothing had happened.
Aware of the loss of distance by this untoward accident, which was, in fact,
more than four boats’ length, but undismayed and as if invigorated by her
impromptu bath, in order to recover lost ground Margaret set the pace at a
higher speed and forged ahead with might and main. When the throngs on
land and water realized what had happened the din of exultation and
cheering was beyond description and this did not abate until the race was
finished. Overwrought by the sight of this heroic exploit of the girls, men
and women had become madly hysterical. When the shells crossed each
other at the half-mile stake it was seen that the Seminary girls had
recovered considerable ground, leaving a margin of less than two boats’
length. Encouraged by the splendid showing made, and goaded to endeavor
by the rapturous applause of the populace, Margaret and the rest of the crew
seemed to gain new strength. And when Aurora with the megaphone gave
the order of thirty-six strokes a minute, they set the pace with marvelous
vigor and precision, causing consternation among their masculine
antagonists.
On the completion of the second parabola of their circuit and when coming
on to the line for the homestretch, it was noticeable that the Seminary shell
was only a trifle behind.
The crucial moment had come.
They were now almost abreast on the homestretch. The intensity of the
exciting scene had for a moment cast a profound silence upon the
spectators. Every one was straining his eyes and neck to see the momentous
finish, only to break again into a bedlam of rapturous shouting when the
girls were seen to be in the lead. It was indeed a sight never to be forgotten,
when the Seminary shell shot past the finish line a full boat’s length ahead,
and the girls were acclaimed by the populace as victors.
The Winning Crew
The intensity of the joy of the throng, and the plight of their utter abandon,
can be conjectured when it was discovered afterwards that eight hundred
and ninety-one ladies’ and two thousand three hundred and seventy-nine
gentlemen’s head-gear were picked up in the Hudson. The next day and
through the week following, divers reaped a good harvest by bringing up
from the river’s bed one thousand three hundred and ninety-four field,
marine and opera glasses, and two hundred and seventy-five lorgnettes,
besides innumerable parasols and canes which the people in their abandon
had thrown about.
This episode was the crowning glory of the Seminary and the beginning of
a new epoch in the history of this institution.
CHAPTER VIII
Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba
Like a nebular comet in a far away constellation, so mysterious in its orbit
and composition, was Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba, who suddenly made his
appearance in the suburbs of the cosmopolitan city of B—— on Long
Island. He occupied the spacious mansion of a wealthy merchant, who had
abandoned it for a more comfortable lodge in the Adirondacks. Surrounded
by somewhat neglected clumps of pines and shrubberies, the establishment
was entirely isolated from the highway and most suitable for a man like the
Hindoo doctor, who seemed always to desire seclusion.
In order to form an idea of his singular personality, a brief description will
perhaps enlighten the reader. He was tall, lank, of swarthy complexion,
endowed with a cyranesque proboscis and a moustache which protruded
like the tusks of a walrus. His eyebrows resembled the moustache in
miniature. His big greenish-yellow eyes, with spacious white borders and
cat-like pupils, were able to bring to bear an intensely hypnotic gaze, which
had an irresistible and subjective power. As he was invariably attired in the
picturesque costume of his country, and from the fine texture of the silken
turban and embroidered robes, could easily be conjectured that he belonged
to a high caste and noble Hindoo family. He had a peculiar walk,
continually swerving from side to side as he moved, wriggling and
swinging his indispensable jessamine cane, which from its serpentine
convolutions looked as if it had been hardened while in convulsions.
The people of the neighborhood, although amused by his strange antics,
entertained great respect for him. To some, especially to young people, he
seemed a monstrosity. They had already nick-named him the “Crazy
Doctor.” Vague rumors circulated among the gossip-loving residents that he
was a political refugee, who, finding his life in danger in India, had fled
from his native land. But no one doubted his ability as a physician and
surgeon, for in a short time he had founded a reputation that commanded
respect.
His cadaverous look, his strange hypnotic eye and mysteriously eccentric
movements, enhanced a hundredfold his reputation rather than damaged it.
Every one considered him a man of great learning, a wizard in the science
of healing and stood aghast exclaiming wonderingly, “Whence cometh this
mighty healing power?”
When Dr. Ben Raaba made his advent in B—— he was accompanied by a
robust, well-formed and intelligent-looking Levantine Jew servant, Esau by
name. This person minded his own business, and proved himself to be a
very discreet servant, never divulging his master’s secrets to any outsider. A
few months after taking up their residence, however, the place resembled a
private menagerie. Scores of cats, dogs, of high and low degree, pigs and
goats of every size made their appearance.
Dr. Hyder, notwithstanding various opinions of others, was in reality a
mysterious and remarkable man; despite his thorough British education and
extensive travels in foreign lands, was a believer in the tenets of a Hindoo
sect called the Saktian Yogis, a believer of Mahadeva, whose spouse of a
dual nature—spiritual and material principles in one—has three qualities:
first, Dominion and Desire; second, Rectitude and Wisdom, with power to
control senses; and third, Violence and Passion.
The Doctor, moreover, was conversant with all the Hindoo mysticism and
sciences, astronomy and magic. He was capable of restraining respiration,
besides being a natural born hypnotist of great power. Modern practical
medicine and surgery were also among the Doctor’s accomplishments, as
he had a seven year course in the National University of Medicine of
London.
His appearances in public began to diminish gradually after the various
animals were received there, as he was engrossed in his laboratory, engaged
in some experiment in vivisection! Indeed, in the dead of night, weird and
uncanny sounds often emanated from the inner recesses of his laboratory.
Sometimes a piteous mew, or the piercing caterwaul of felines, or the
whining of dogs. At other times, the plaintive beating of a goat, the
squeaking of a goose or the squeal of a pig broke the silence of the night,
while at intervals, now and then, several owls on the roof gave vent to their
weird hootings.
Hyder Ben Raaba and the Goat in the Garden
This state of affairs naturally gave an awful aspect to the place, and kept the
inquisitive villagers at a distance, while the mischievous youngsters gave
the place no trouble from trespassing. The only incident which reached the
public was told by a precocious youth who, with grim determination,
strived to unravel the mysteries of the place, on a cloudy night had crawled
into the garden, climbed a tree, and hidden himself until later on, when the
full moon appeared above the horizon and cast its hazy light through the
clouds. Then an uncanny sight was unfurled before his eyes; there, sitting
under the shadow of a weeping willow tree, the Hindoo Doctor, apparently,
was in the act of hypnotizing a goat, with weird gestures and incantations.
Unnerved by this strange sight, the intruder, losing his grip and footing, fell
to the ground. The hooting of an owl and a fiendish howl from the Doctor
gave the youth a further impetus to scamper for life, over shrubberies and
picket fence, out of the domain of the Hindoo vampire!
Upon the youth’s recital of his experience, the feeling of mystery and fear
increased among the unsophisticated people of the neighborhood and they
kept shy of the place. But the climax of their apprehension was reached
when, shortly after, the following curious sign adorned the main gate to the
house:
DR. HYDER BEN RAABA
VIVISECTIONIST AND RE-INCARNATOR
What was the meaning of these significant words on his shingle,
“Vivisectionist and Re-incarnator?” What was the mission of this
mysterious man? To what line of surgical science did this assortment of
animals contribute, whose piteous wails ever and anon emanated from his
laboratory? Up to that time a chain of wonderful discoveries and marvelous
achievements had been attained by profound savants in surgical and
pathological subjects: The creation of life germ cells: The trepanning of
skulls and the re-arrangement of the brains: The grafting of skin, nose and
ear: The infusion of new blood: The pre-natal determination of sexes: The
separation of mind from the body, by subjecting persons in a cataleptic state
by hypnotism: And last but not least, the hibernation for an indefinite period
of living bodies by suspended animation.
These amazing triumphs, each more startling than the other, were the
records of past achievements.
Could there be anything more astounding?
Even so, Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba, who was conversant with all the above
mentioned exploits of experimenters, had conceived one of the boldest and
extraordinarily audacious of surgical feats, the successful demonstration of
which would startle the world and make men stand aghast with wonder. In
fact, by the display of his professional sign, it was a foregone conclusion
that he had succeeded in his experiments.
By the aid of science, occultism and wonderful magic, he had transformed
the sexes!
CHAPTER IX
A Ray of Hope
It was the day of departure of Aurora Cunningham for London, England.
Margaret had accompanied her in an automobile to the city of B—— to see
her off. Their parting had an unusual sadness as they stood on the deck of
the Dynamoship “Columbia”—a four-day ocean greyhound. They seemed
to be paralyzed at the barrenness of the future, looking into each other’s
eyes as if trying to challenge sincerity to their oath of allegiance.
It was extremely touching indeed, when they were compelled by the
officers of the ship to take their final leave, and as the Columbia began to
recede gradually from its moorings, her prow compassed to the British
Isles, Aurora’s lithe figure could be seen at the stern of the boat, throwing
kisses and waving her handkerchief toward Margaret, until the distance
grew wider and farther and the figure fainter and at last was lost to view.
Left alone on the shore, Margaret did her utmost to control her emotions of
parting from her beloved friend. With suppressed feelings she mounted her
automobile reluctantly, and bade the chauffeur proceed to New York City,
from whence, after a short repose, she intended to take the train for her
home in Wyoming.
She had hardly gone a mile or two out of the city of B—— when her
emotions had swelled beyond her capacity of control and she became
delirious in her seat in the auto. Some pedestrians by the way, noticing that
something unusual had happened to the fair occupant, called the attention of
the chauffeur to his charge. He brought the machine to a standstill and the
necessity of enlisting the services of a doctor was at once apparent.
One of the bystanders suggested that the nearest available doctor was the
Hindoo surgeon, Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba, about a furlong farther down the
road, and thither the patient was wheeled with all possible haste, and within
a few minutes she was in the Doctor’s reception room.
After a cursory examination Ben Raaba appeared somewhat puzzled. “She
is in a state of coma,” he said, rubbing his forehead with his bony fingers,
“but I do not yet see any physical cause to induce that condition. It seems to
me,” he added, “that every function of the organs are in a perfectly normal
state.”
His face brightened at once, however, with a smile of victory. A happy
thought had come to his fertile mind. He had thought of the singular
methods practised by the diagnostician Avicene of Balk—the father of
occult Diagnosis—and the words of the Cashmerian poet came to his
memory, who nearly ten centuries previously had said: “The pulse of the
loving, beats higher, agitated only at the name of the beloved.”
Taking thereupon her pulse into his hand, he began to question the
chauffeur, where she had gone, with whom, what was the other young
lady’s name, etc. He knew that, although she was in a state of coma, her
senses of hearing and of understanding were performing their regular
functions. At the mention of the name of Aurora Cunningham there was a
remarkable change in Margaret; her pulse began to beat double quick!
After repeating the experiment, and satisfying himself that the cause was a
matter pertaining the heart, in fact the girl’s infatuation for her departed
friend, and that there was nothing in the Materia Medica as an antidote, that
the only restorative remedy that could be found was in hypnotic occultism,
he leaned over the prostrate figure before him and whispered some words
into her ear.
The correctness of his diagnosis became plainly evident. The patient, with
perfect tranquility, opened her eyes, and with a complacent smile looked
into the face of her restorer. After a few more magnetic passes and words of
encouragement from the Wizard, she had completely recovered herself, to
the amazement of the anxious group of persons who had gathered there,
curious to know the fate of the fair occupant of the automobile. Within half
an hour she again entered her auto and proceeded on her way to the city.
The new and remarkable personality of Hyder Ben Raaba, however, left an
ineradicable impression upon her mind, so much as at times to divert her
thoughts from dwelling upon Aurora and concentrate upon the strange
visage of Hyder Ben Raaba. After a repose of a few days in New York,
having made all the preparations for the intended journey, she left the
metropolis and arrived in due time at her paternal home in Wyoming.
Hardly a month had elapsed after her return when there was another crisis
in her life. Her father was taken suddenly ill and died, and she was left an
heiress to a large fortune consisting principally of lands, mines and cattle.
Being without any relatives to guide her, Margaret was compelled to settle
matters for herself, and daily she was confronted by hundreds of annoying
details. These consisted of many entangling affairs of her lamented father,
who had left her sole legatee, prospective aspirants who sought her hand in
marriage, her solemn and binding oath to Aurora, and, strange as it may
seem, the grotesquely hideous face of Ben Raaba began to flit before her
mind’s eye, perplexing and haunting her incessantly.
One evening when she was thus absorbed in deep meditation, the postman
brought her a letter. It was mailed from B——. Excitedly she tore open the
envelope and from it fell the professional card of Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba. The
same weird and ominous words were printed under his name: “The
Vivisectionist and Re-incarnator”! On the other side were scribbled a few
lines, making inquiry about the state of her health.
The card, ah! the strange and significant words, vivisection and re-
incarnation began to assume a deep meaning. She placed the card
tremblingly upon the table and fell into a profound study. Her quivering
frame, the rise and fall of her heaving breast and the change of color of her
face alternatively from pallor to a feverish flush, indicated that there was a
revolution going on within her immaculate bosom.
At last she seemed to come to some determination; tremblingly she grasped
a pen and wrote a letter to Ben Raaba, the contents of which never became
known to any but herself and the Hindoo doctor. Within a fortnight she
received an answer which seemed to satisfy her.
Within two months she had managed hastily to dispose of all her personal
property and real estate without any reserve, and then she disappeared from
her Western home and surroundings and was lost forever to her former
friends.
CHAPTER X
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  • 1. Supervision Concepts and Skill-Building 10th Edition Certo Solutions Manual download pdf https://testbankdeal.com/product/supervision-concepts-and-skill- building-10th-edition-certo-solutions-manual/ Visit testbankdeal.com to explore and download the complete collection of test banks or solution manuals!
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  • 5. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-1 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Chapter 08 Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity I. Chapter Overview Learning Objectives 8.1 Identify the steps in the rational model of decision making. 8.2 Discuss ways people make compromises in following the decision-making model. 8.3 Describe guidelines for making decisions. 8.4 Explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software can help in making decisions. 8.5 Discuss advantages and disadvantages of making decisions in groups. 8.6 Describe guidelines for group decision making. 8.7 Describe guidelines for thinking creatively. 8.8 Discuss how supervisors can establish and maintain a creative work climate. 8.9 Identify ways to overcome barriers to creativity. Clark Wigley, a management consultant, says that, “success does not equal no problems (as in ‘If I were a good manager, I would have no problems’). Success is having and solving the right problems.” Problem solving requires making good decisions. Using a rational model of decision-making improves the likelihood of reaching good decisions. The rational model presented includes: identify the problem, identify the alternative solutions, gather and organize facts, evaluate the alternatives, choose and implement the best alternative, get feedback and take corrective action. People may try to take a simpler approach to decision-making by considering only the alternatives that readily come to mind. They may just want to meet minimum standards or use subjective methods to select an alternative. Human compromises to the rational decision-making process include simplicity, bounded rationality, subjective rationality, rationalization, personal perspective, recency syndrome, and stereotyping. When making decisions, supervisors should consider the consequences of the decision. When the consequences of a decision are great, the supervisor should take more time in readying the decision. On the other hand, in a crisis, the supervisor must make a decision quickly. There are tools available to help the supervisor select among alternative solutions. The probability theory, the decision-making tree and related software aid supervisors in selecting the best solution. Resources available to supervisors in making good decisions are their employees and peers. Using the
  • 6. Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor 8-2 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. assistance of a group will increase the information and number of ideas for solutions. Also, people who are involved in developing a solution are more likely to support the implementation of the solution. A disadvantage of group problem solving is that it usually takes longer than individual decision-making. Other disadvantages include the cost to the organization, inferior decision making owing to a small group dominating the decision-making process, and groupthink. Solving a problem may require a new, creative solution. Creative thinking develops a broad store of information related to the problem. Supervisors can increase their own creativity by setting aside time in which they can let their mind wander. Taking a break can be helpful when ideas don’t seem to be flowing. Widespread creativity among employees can be a valuable asset in coming up with new ideas to solve problems. Supervisors should show they value creativity. They should listen to and encourage suggestions. Some of the barriers to creativity are fear of failure, excessive busyness, and isolation. To overcome these barriers, supervisors need to remember that failing inevitably accompanies trying. The supervisor should not place blame but acknowledge the effort of employees and continue to search for better solutions. A Supervision Challenge: Creative Problem-Solving at Dirty Lemon Teaching notes: The opening case discusses Dirty Lemon, a Brooklyn based beverage company that sells directly to customers through text messaging. The case presents the following two questions. 1. What problem solving and decision making strategies will the founders of Dirty Lemon continue to need and rely upon? Student’s answers will vary. A decision tree may be used to initially analyze any capacity upgrades needed with the addition of new customers. 2. How can you apply their ability to think creatively to your own work as a supervisor? Student’s answer will vary widely here. A discussion would bring out many suggestions and viewpoints students would not ordinarily hear. The case is again referred to in the Skills Module – Part Two: Skill-Building exercise at the end of the chapter. II. Teaching the Concepts by Learning Objectives
  • 7. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-3 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Learning Objective 8.1: Identify the steps in the rational model of decision-making. 1. Key Term: Decision: A choice from among available alternatives 2. Teaching Notes: A decision is a choice from among available alternatives. Solving problems involves making a series of decisions: deciding that something is wrong, deciding what the problem is, and deciding how to solve it. Successful problem solving depends on good decisions. Much of a supervisor’s job consists of making decisions that cover all the functions of management. In many cases, supervisors make decisions without giving any thought to the process of deciding. A supervisor automatically does something because it feels right or because he or she always has handled that problem that way. Even though making many decisions seems automatic, supervisors can improve the way they make them by understanding how the decision- making process works in theory and in practice. The rational model of decision-making includes the following steps: • Identify the problem • Identify alternative solutions • Gather and organize facts • Evaluate alternatives • Choose and implement the best alternative • Get feedback and take corrective action 3. Teaching examples to identify the steps in the rational model of decision-making: The text provides a rough outline of a decision-making process made by Dave Frantz, the supervisor of a group of workers for a janitorial service. Dave works long hours to accomplish his job. Big problems like Dave’s are often the cumulative effect of many small problems. The following will give additional detail for the example. Identify the problem: The symptom of Dave’s problem is the long hours he must put in to satisfy the needs of his job and his boss’s demands. As indicated in the text, he had already determined that he worked hard and did not waste time. To understand better how he used his time, Dave kept a log to indicate how much time was spent on each of his tasks. After several days it was obvious that a large portion of his time was spent on paperwork. Also, as a result of his log, he was able to determine that he was not giving importance to some parts of his job. For example, he was unable to spend as much time on training as he would have liked. The paperwork is the result of forms and check sheets that are submitted by the workers for quality assurance records, billing information, payroll, and safety records. Each job has a job order and check sheet to assure the customer receives what is ordered. Billing information is
  • 8. Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor 8-4 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. taken from the job order check sheet and a summary is prepared for accounting. Each worker must keep a daily time record and expense record sheet. The payroll is prepared from the summary Dave provides along with the original records that are also sent to the accounting department. In addition, records are kept on the chemicals used in the cleaning process and all the reported accidents. Just finding that a lot of time was spent on paperwork was not enough to solve the problem. Dave went on to analyze the paperwork to determine more specifically the use of his time. (Refer to graph below “Analysis of Time Used for Paperwork”). Dave now has information that will help him focus on potential solutions. Identify alternative solutions: It appears to Dave that the hours spent calculating and preparing the reports is the place to concentrate his efforts. If he could cut this time in half he could reduce his workload by nine hours. Alternatives considered by Dave were to delegate the work to someone else and automate all or part of the task. Before Dave could reach a decision, he carefully investigated all the alternatives. Gather and organize facts: Dave first thought he could get someone else to do the work. Hiring a clerical person was out of the question. The top management said this was not possible. There was no money to hire another person. Would a temporary employee solve his problem? Could several other employees do the work? This was not possible because of the confidentiality involved in the billing process and the fact that the summary still had to be done by one person. Analysis of Time Used for Paperwork Tasks Hours Used Percent of Hours Job summary reports 15 50.0 Billing reports 5 16.7 Time/payroll reports 2.5 8.3 Expense reports (mileage and meal allowance) 5 16.7 Safety reports 2.5 8.3 Total 30 100.0 Analysis of Paperwork Tasks Tasks Hours Used Percent of
  • 9. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-5 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Hours Calculations and writing summary reports 18 66.7 Correcting mistakes and omissions of raw data 12 33.3 Total 30 100.0 Dave then investigated the possibility of automating a part of the job. Could he somehow use the bar-coding method used in the warehouse? This was not feasible at this time. If he had to continue to do the task using the same basic method, what was available to help him? Dave talked to the accounting department and the order department. Those departments used computers to speed up their work. They were also valuable for summarizing data and creating easily accessible records. Dave found the cost of the computer that would fulfill his needs. He estimated it would reduce the time spent by 30 percent immediately, and eventually would reduce the time by 50 to 60 percent of the original time. Evaluate alternatives: A temporary employee would help him catch up and give him some extra hours in the short run. A permanent employee was not possible in the foreseeable future. A computer seemed to be the best solution. It could create the summary report from the data entered. There would also be a permanent and easily accessible record of the job orders and other data that could be used for other purposes in the future. The up-front cost of the computer was high, but it would be a one-time cost. Choose and implement the best alternative: Dave made a request for the computer. He provided his boss with all of the information leading up to his decision. His boss was impressed with the thoroughness of his investigation. The estimation of reduction in time was realistic. The recommendation was approved. Get feedback: Dave continued to monitor and keep records of the time he spent on this part of his job. The computer was a big help. It also pointed out the need to standardize record keeping by the employees. As a result, Dave had a meeting with the employees and emphasized the need for complete and accurate record keeping on their part. The employees also made recommendations on how the job orders could be improved to help them keep good records for the company. The latest result of the problem-solving effort was the documentation of an overall reduction of 60 percent of the paperwork time. 4. Exercise to identify the steps in the rational model of decision-making: Refer to the “Exercise” below for Learning Objective 8.2, starting on page 8-8, and discuss ways people make compromises in following the decision-making model. The exercise includes an application of the rational model of decision-making and the ways people make compromises in
  • 10. Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor 8-6 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. following the model. Learning Objective 8.2: Discuss ways people make compromises in following the decision- making model. 1. Key Terms: Bounded Rationality: Choosing an alternative that meets minimum standards of acceptability Recency Syndrome: The tendency to remember more easily those events that have occurred recently Stereotypes: Generalized, fixed images of others 2. Teaching Notes: Often supervisors have neither the time nor the desire to follow all these steps to a decision. Even when supervisors try to follow these steps, they often have trouble thinking of all the alternatives or gathering all the facts they need. Given these human and organizational limitations, supervisors—like all decision makers—make compromises most of the time. A supervisor who is aware of the kinds of compromises people make is more apt to be aware of when he or she is using them. In addition, a supervisor may find that though some kinds of compromises are useful in some situations, others are to be avoided as much as possible. Reasons for compromises: • Simplicity: Usually people simply mull over their experiences and consider ways they have handled similar problems in the past. The downside of this approach is that it tends to bypass new and innovative solutions, even though they sometimes deliver the best results. • Bounded rationality: When time, cost, or other limitations, such as the tendency to simplify, make finding the best alternative impossible or unreasonable, decision makers settle for an alternative they consider good enough. Choosing an alternative that meets minimum standards of acceptability is a form of bounded rationality; that is, a decision maker places limits, or bounds, on the rational model of decision-making. The decision maker considers alternatives only until one is found that meets his or her minimum criteria for acceptability. Figure 8.3 in the text shows the process of bounded rationality. • Subjective rationality: When people analyze alternatives, they tend to rely on their intuition and gut instincts instead of collecting impartial data. Even when the process for arriving at the decision is otherwise rational, the numbers used in the process may be subjective and thus not completely accurate.
  • 11. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-7 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. • Rationalization: People tend to favor solutions that they believe they can justify to others. • Personal perspective: People may assume that everyone sees things the way they do. They think if something is clear to them it is also clear to everyone else. To avoid this problem, decision makers must find out what other people are thinking and then consider those views. • Recency Syndrome: An event should not carry more weight simply because it is more recent. This is one reason decision makers need to consider the alternatives as fully as is reasonable. • Stereotyping: Rigid opinions about categories of people are called stereotypes and they interfere with rational decision making, limiting a decision maker’s understanding of the people involved. Stereotypes distort the truth that people offer a rich variety of individual strengths and viewpoints. 3. Teaching examples to discuss ways people make compromises in following the decision-making model: The example of Dave Frantz used in the text and Learning Objective 8.1 can be used to demonstrate the concepts discussed in this learning objective. Using the problem-solving model discussed above will take some time to determine the best solution. Dave may want to compromise or speed up the decision-making process. Dave may also have personal beliefs that direct his decision-making process. The following are examples of some of the compromises Dave may be tempted to make: Simplicity—usually what people do is think over their experiences and consider some of the ways similar problems have been handled in the past. Dave could have simply decided that he didn’t have enough time to do all of his work and tried to sell his boss on a solution that from his point of view is a simple solution, such as to hire a clerical person to take care of the paperwork. After all, in the past when work piled up, they hired someone to help out. Bounded rationality—when it seems impossible or unreasonable to find the best alternative in the universe, decision makers settle for an alternative they consider good enough. Dave has decided that the workload is impossible or unreasonable and has set some minimum standards. For example, he may do only the work that needs to be done on a timely basis, such as payroll and billing, and let other paperwork remain unfinished until he is pressed for it. Subjective rationality—alternatives that are the result of intuition and gut instincts, rather than impartial data.
  • 12. Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor 8-8 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Dave may act on intuition, such as thinking that the records are unnecessarily complicated and simplification would allow the use of employee check sheets for accounting purposes. As a result of this thinking, Dave may end up changing the record keeping system to eliminate some of his part of the paperwork. Rationalization—people tend to favor solutions that they believe they can justify to others. Dave could decide to try to sell his boss on sending the paperwork directly from the employees to the payroll, billing, and personnel departments without his review and summary of the information. His rationale would be that his time is too valuable to waste on paperwork. He is an experienced technician and his talents are best used in the field, not behind a desk. He is sure his boss will agree with his argument. Personal perspective—people assume that everyone sees things the way they do. Personal perspective for Dave may further support the value of his talents and the waste of time and talent on paperwork. Recency Syndrome—an event should not carry more weight simply because it is more recent. Last month, one of his peers was allowed to transfer part of her paperwork to a clerical employee. Dave might remember this incident and ask for similar help for himself even though his manager has consistently turned down such requests in the past. Stereotyping—rigid opinions about categories of people distort the truth that people offer a rich variety of individual strengths and viewpoints. Dave may think that paperwork is secretarial work and secretaries are women. Therefore, a secretary or a woman clerical employee should be doing the paperwork. 4. Exercise to discuss application of the rational model of decision-making (Learning Objective 8.1) and ways people make compromises in following the decision-making model: Students can apply the rational decision-making model to their personal life as well as their workplace. Set up the situation, then apply the rational decision model, and give examples of specific compromises that can be made based on the six reasons listed above. The exercise is best used as a homework assignment Steps to using this exercise: • Make each student a copy of Forms 8.2, on page 8-10, “Applying the Rational Model for Decision-making” and 8.3, on page 8-11, “Compromises to the Rational Model for Decision-making.” The student is to use the worksheets as a guide for the exercise.
  • 13. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-9 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Instructors can also ask students to hand them in as proof of completion of the assignment. • Read the situation to the class and ask if they have any questions regarding the assignment Form 8.2. A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and the discussion about the project today made him or her to realize that he or she don’t have time to do a good job on the project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on this assignment or his or her final grade could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and personal obligations. Use the rational model of decision-making to come up with three alternative solutions. Then select the best alternative. Also indicate feedback and corrective action. Use additional paper if necessary to show examples and explanations. Form 8.3. A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and the discussion about the project today made him or her to realize that he or she don’t have time to do a good job on the project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on this assignment or his or her final grade could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and personal obligations. Instead of using the rational model of decision-making, give solutions based on the seven reasons for compromise. • The assignment requires students to explain specifically what they would do at each step of the rational decision-making model. The responses should be similar to the teaching example of Dave in Learning Objective 8.1. • After students have finished the rational decision-making model, they will do the compromise sheet that will indicate how the decisions for the specific problem would be made using each of the compromises. • If desired, hold a class discussion after the assignments have been completed. o Ask students which of the worksheets was easiest to think about and complete. o Ask students which method best represents the way they make decisions and what advantages and problems may result from their problem-solving methods.
  • 14. Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor 8-10 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Form 8.2 Applying the Rational Model for Decision-making A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and the discussion about the project today made him or her to realize that he or she doesn’t have time to do a good job on the project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on this assignment or his or her final grade could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and personal obligations. Use the rational model for decision-making to come up with three alternative solutions. Then select the best alternative. Also indicate feedback and corrective action. Use additional paper if necessary to show examples and explanations. The rational model of decision-making includes: a. Identify the problem b. Identify alternative solutions c. Gather and organize facts d. Evaluate alternatives e. Choose and implement the best alternative f. Get feedback
  • 15. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-11 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Form 8.3 Compromises to the Rational Model for Decision-making A term project has been assigned to the class. It slipped the student’s mind and the discussion about the project today made him or her to realize that he or she doesn’t have time to do a good job on the project. It is very important that he or she gets a high grade on this assignment or his or her final grade could be in jeopardy. The student has a job and personal obligations. Instead of using the rational model of decision-making, give solutions based on the seven reasons for compromise. 1. Simplicity 2. Bounded rationality 3. Subjective rationality 4. Rationalization 5. Personal perspective 6. Recency syndrome 7. Stereotyping
  • 16. Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor 8-12 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Learning Objective 8.3: Describe guidelines for making decisions. 1. Teaching Notes: Should a supervisor always avoid human compromises in making decisions? Not necessarily. In some situations, seeking to match the rational model would just be too costly and time consuming. Guidelines for making decisions in the workplace: Consider the consequences: When the consequences of a decision are great, a supervisor should spend more time on the decision, following the rational model of decision-making and seeking to include as many alternatives as possible. When the consequences of the decision are slight, a supervisor should limit the time and money spent in identifying and evaluating alternatives. Respond quickly in a crisis: In a crisis, a supervisor should quickly select the course of action that seems best. This is an appropriate application of bounded rationality. Instead of waiting to evaluate other alternatives, the supervisor should begin implementing the solution and interpreting feedback to see whether the solution is working. Inform the manager: A supervisor’s manager does not want to hear about every minor decision the supervisor makes each day. However, the manager does need to know what is happening in the department, so the supervisor should inform the manager about major decisions including those that affect meeting departmental objectives, responses to crisis, and any controversial decision. When the manager needs to know about a decision, it is usually smart for a supervisor to discuss the problem before reaching and announcing the decision. The manager may see an aspect of the problem that has escaped the supervisor’s attention or have different priorities that lead to a veto or modification of the supervisor’s solution. In a crisis, the supervisor may not have time to consult with the manager and will have to settle for discussing the decision as soon as possible afterward. Be decisive yet flexible: Sometimes it is difficult to say which alternative solution is most likely to succeed or will bring the best results. Two alternatives may look equally good, or perhaps none of the choices looks good enough. In such cases, a supervisor may find it hard to move beyond studying the alternatives to selection and implementation one of them. However, avoiding a decision is merely another way to decide to do nothing, and doing nothing is usually not the best choice. Being decisive means reaching a decision within a reasonable amount of time. The supervisor should pick the alternative that looks best (or at least acceptable) within the appropriate timeframe for the decision, and then focus on implementing it.
  • 17. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-13 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. A decisive supervisor quickly clears his or her desk of routine matters, promptly referring them to the proper people, and keeps work moving. A decisive supervisor assumes complete responsibility for getting the facts needed when he or she must solve a problem. Finally, a decisive supervisor keeps his or her employees informed of what they are expected to do and how they are progressing relative to their objectives. Being decisive does not mean a supervisor is blind to signs that he or she has made a mistake. When implementing a solution, a supervisor needs to seek feedback that indicates whether the solution is working. If the first attempt at solving a problem fails, a supervisor must be flexible and try another approach. Avoid decision-making traps: Some supervisors seem to delight in emergency deadlines and crises, and they act as though each decision is a life-or-death issue. But good planning can avert many crises; life-or-death issues are not the usual stuff of a supervisor’s job. A supervisor must be able to put each issue into perspective so that he or she can calmly evaluate the alternatives and devote an appropriate amount of time to finding a solution. Another trap for decision makers is responding inappropriately to failure. When a supervisor makes a wrong decision, the supervisor will look best if he or she acknowledges the mistake. At the same time, supervisors need not agonize over their mistakes. The constructive approach is to learn whatever lesson the mistake can teach and then move on. By trying to save time or work independently, some supervisors fail to draw on easily available information. One important source of information is precedent. Have some of the alternatives been tried before? If so, what was the outcome? By consulting with other members of the organization or outside experts, a supervisor often can find readily available data that will improve his or her decision. Sometimes supervisors are tempted to promise too much. This mistake traps many supervisors because the promises keep people happy. Another trap is to assume there is one “right” decision. 2. Teaching examples to describe guidelines for making decisions: The example of Dave Frantz used in the text and Learning Objective 8.1 can be used to demonstrate the concepts discussed in this learning example. The guidelines discussed in this learning objective are also important for Dave to consider in finding a solution to his problem. • Consider the consequences: When the consequences of a decision are great, the supervisor should spend more time on the decision. The consequences of Dave’s decision are saving his valuable time and the cost of the solution. These two consequences are important and should result in spending enough time to do a thorough investigation.
  • 18. Part 3 – Functions of the Supervisor 8-14 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. • Respond quickly in a crisis: In a crisis, the supervisor should quickly select the course of action that seems best. Dave’s problem is not a crisis at this time, but it is serious. If he doesn’t plan for the elimination of this problem, it may soon reach a more critical stage. At that time he may have to get additional help from other employees. He may have to hire a temporary person or take someone away from his or her work. • Inform the manager: The supervisor’s manager doesn’t want to hear about every minor decision, but the manager does need to know what is happening in the department. The supervisor should inform the manager about major decisions. Perhaps Dave could have acquired a computer for his office on loan before he informed his manager. He may be very sure that his manager will agree with his decision. But since the computer is going to be an additional expenditure for the company, Dave should inform his manager of his decision and the rationale behind the decision before he takes the next step. • Be decisive but not inflexible: Sometimes it is difficult to say which alternative solution is best, or perhaps none of the choices looks good enough. If Dave finds through his continued monitoring of the new system that he is still spending too much time on paperwork, he should review his other alternatives and perhaps investigate additional alternatives. An additional alternative may be an improved software package for the computer. Remember Dave’s original problem was the time it took to do the paperwork. If the first solution is not really a solution, he should continue to search for a better solution. • Avoid decision-making traps: Avoid making a major issue out of each decision. Good planning can avert many crises, and life-and-death issues are not the usual stuff of the supervisor’s job. Put each issue into perspective so that alternatives can be evaluated and an appropriate amount of time can be devoted to finding the solution. Obviously, Dave’s problem is not going to go away by itself. The longer he puts it off, the more he is neglecting other important parts of his job. 3. Exercise to describe guidelines for making decisions: Refer to “Exercise” below for Learning Objective 8.4 on page 8-16, “Explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software can help in making decisions.” The exercise includes an application of the guidelines for decision-making concepts. Learning Objective 9.4: Explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software
  • 19. Chapter 08 – Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Creativity 8-15 Copyright © McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. can help in making decisions. 1. Key Terms: Probability Theory: A body of techniques for comparing the consequences of possible decisions in a risk situation Decision Tree: A graph that helps decision makers use probability theory by showing the expected values of decisions in varying circumstances Decision-Making Software: A computer program that leads the user through the steps of the formal decision-making process 2. Teaching Notes: To make decisions about risk situations, a supervisor can compare the consequences of several decisions by using probability theory. To use this theory, a supervisor needs to know or be able to estimate the value of each possible outcome and the likelihood (probability) that this outcome will occur. In the real world, most decisions involving probability are complex. Sorting out the relative value of the choices can be easier with the use of a graph. A supervisor may find it helpful to use a decision tree for making decisions in risk situations. A decision tree is a graph that helps decision making by showing the expected values of decisions in varying circumstances. Some computer programs have been developed to help people make decisions. A decision- making software leads the user through the steps of the formal decision-making process. A database management program, such as Access, IBM DB2, or Oracle Database, systematically stores large amounts of data and makes it easy for the user to request and retrieve specific categories of data. 3. Teaching examples to explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software can help in making decisions: Text Figure 8.5 “A Simple Decision Tree” illustrates a simple decision tree showing the available alternatives which stem from the decision points. In this figure, a sales supervisor is trying to decide whether to hire a new salesperson at a salary of $40,000. Assuming there is a 60 percent chance of sales increasing if the supervisor hires a salesperson (and a 40 percent chance of sales remaining steady), the expected value of hiring is 0.60($210,000) + 0.40($160,000), or $190,000. The expected value of not hiring is $225,000. According to the greater expected value for not hiring, the supervisor should decide that it makes more economic sense not to hire a salesperson at this time. 4. Exercise to explain how probability theory, decision trees, and computer software can help in
  • 20. Discovering Diverse Content Through Random Scribd Documents
  • 21. made. He had gained his so-called “second wind” thereby recouping his adroitness and elasticity. With the consummate skill of a scientific boxer, several times he feigned signs of weakness, by giving false openings, of which his infuriated antagonist attempted to avail himself, thinking the Professor to be on the verge of collapse, only to receive in return several well directed right and left swings on the jaw. These staggered Don Seville to his knees, but he was allowed to rise to his feet by the generous tolerance of the Professor, and the consciousness of this humility caused him to wage the attack with reckless fury. With vulgar oaths he began to resort to foul tactics, trying to hit the defender beyond the limits of decent pugilism. Don Seville’s endurance had now come to its end. His youth, dissipated by debauchery, was undermined of its stability, and in spite of the wide disparity of ages the old man had Don Seville absolutely in his power. It was time, he thought, to terminate these proceedings, so distasteful and undignified to him, but the only way he saw was, to lay aside the tactics of self defense, and adopt those of a punitive retaliation. With keen alertness he watched for an opportunity and when Don Seville, almost crazed with anger, rushed on him for a clinch, entirely oblivious of the intention of the Professor, the latter gave a sudden shift to his position by swinging his body away from his antagonist Don Seville blindly followed him in his determination of a desperate onslaught. It was then that the venerable Allenson shot out a driving “right upper cut” to the jaw. This was the finale! Don Seville staggered to the rails and toppling over fell with a splash into the limpid waters below.
  • 22. The Final Blow The Professor promptly jumped down the embankment and pulled out his still unconscious adversary. If abandoned in that condition the young man might have drowned in the shallow waters. The Professor began to do all in his power to restore him to consciousness; just at that time a farmhand on horseback appeared on the scene, and by his aid the Academy ambulance was summoned and Don Seville was taken to the military hospital.
  • 24. Historical Events of the 20th Century (Concluded) A subdued applause greeted the Professor the next day when he entered the lecture room to conclude his review of events of the 20th Century. Many floral bouquets were tossed to him by his fair admirers, who were augmented from the other classes, on account of the full detail of his encounter with Don Seville having been spread throughout the Seminary. The Professor, despite some discoloration on his benign visage, flushed crimson like a bashful child and bowed his acknowledgements, as he began his discourse thus: 1927 Colonization of Central Africa A system of general colonization on a large scale was, during this year, undertaken by the British Government. By a new homestead law, embodying liberal inducements, a vast army of colonists from all over the British dominions were transported to Central Africa. Thousands upon thousands of persons from the congested districts of London, Glasgow, Liverpool and other large cities, were persuaded to leave their limited surroundings and uncongenial atmosphere, and go to the promising new land, teeming with boundless opportunities. Almost the entire inhabitants of the isolated islands of the Shetlands and Orkneys, who led an indolent life and eked a meagre existence by fisheries, joined this grand trek to Central Africa. Many thousands from the Canadian provinces and from the United States of America joined this exodus, as did
  • 25. also thousands from the East Indies. The thorough and admirable manner in which this laudable movement was handled mitigated the hardships of transportation, and thus within a few years more than five million, poor, homeless and indolent people were given homesteads of their own, awakening them into energy and thrift. Within a decade the population of Central Africa reached the grand total of 25,000,000 industrious, loyal citizens, forming a flourishing dependency, enjoying home rule and liberty, under the protection of British laws and arms. 1928 The Conflagration of the Atlantic Ocean One of the most wonderful and at the same time awful conflagrations of its kind on record in the history of the world, was that of the apparent burning of the Atlantic Ocean, covering an area one hundred and fifty miles wide. It started in the Gulf of Mexico and, like a prairie fire, only a thousand times more furious, this floating furnace consumed scores of vessels that came into its fiery path. A few weeks previous to this awful holocaust, the petroleum wells in Texas, New Mexico and Louisiana had run dry, on account of a severe earthquake. It was argued by scientists that, by some subterranean convulsions the oil well fissures had shifted their course, into the waters of the gulf, and the vast accumulation of the inflammable fluid, floating on the ocean, had been ignited, either by an electric spark during a thunderstorm, or by some combustible being thrown from a sailing craft. 1929
  • 26. The Court of Labor In this year was completed and dedicated the Court of Labor at Washington. This was an imposing building, in which all the momentous labor problems were discussed before a tribunal of disinterested justices, through the able representatives of each faction, without resorting to disastrous strikes, lockouts and disturbances of public comfort. One of the most remarkable features of this Court of Arbitration was, the colossal group erected between the two grand entrances to the building. This was not a semi-nude female figure with bandaged eyes, holding in her hand the conventional pair of scales, but a Herculean figure of Uncle Sam with his starry hat and glorious chin whiskers, having three faces, three eyes and three arms. Before him were a group of three figures which represented respectively Capital, Consumer and Labor. In each figure were his eyes wide open and alert, bent with searching scrutiny upon the person in front, to whom he dispensed the just share of each, from a huge cornucopia at his feet. 1930 Landlordism In America One of the most scandalous evils which had crept gradually in the United States, and eventually became a source of grave anxiety to the government, was a system of Landlordism amongst the very rich. While the general public were slumbering in blissful ignorance, this coterie of avaricious syndicates and multi-millionaires had mysteriously become possessors of vast tracts of lands, in every state of the Union. Some of these holdings comprised hundreds and thousands of square miles in extent. Miles and miles of shore-fronts, immense areas of forests, whole mountains and lakes, through the conniving, corrupt state and county officials, had passed into the hands of private individuals who, in return had become
  • 27. extremely arrogant in their treatment of the public, by unreasonable restriction. There seemed to be a mocking sarcasm in the fact when common people sang the National Anthem “America,” celebrating its hills and rills, while at every turn of the road, at every shore-front, lake, hill and valley, mountain and forests, the forbidding sign, “No Trespassing Under Penalty,” met their eyes, or the repulsive muzzle of the Winchester was thrust into their faces by private watchmen. This state of affairs had reached such desperate straits, that the public suddenly awakened on the subject. It started first by the protest of the rougher element in the mountain districts, who defied the hired authorities with an organized force. The people committed acts of violence and incendiarism it is true, but by their overt acts they awakened the dormant public to realize the enormity of this scandalous condition of deeding away to millionaires, without the consent of the commonwealth, the common and inalienable heritage of its citizens. By a unanimous uprising and public mandate the Federal and State authorities were compelled to condemn and confiscate these stolen public lands. New laws were then enacted by which the acquiring of extensive lands was limited, except for agricultural purposes. 1931 The Discovery of the North Pole The North Pole, that mysterious geographical locality which for centuries had baffled scientists and explorers, was located and verified by the combined efforts of American and British Governments. The expedition was on a gigantic scale, the force of the explorers being in round numbers two thousand five hundred persons who by a system of depots and rendez- vous for supplies, formed almost a continuous chain.
  • 28. All the latest devices in the form of dynamo-vans and motor-sleds, with balloon attachments were employed in the undertaking. Strange to say the casualties did not exceed more than ten per cent of the expeditionary force. It was discovered, to the great surprise of scientists, that the locality was nothing more than a plateau, studded with cones of ice! 1932 Cure for Laziness The discovery, by an American, of a germicide for indolence was announced during this year, by which lethargic persons were regenerated into acute activity. It was a concentrated double extract of pitch-blend, containing the radio active element, and when applied to certain parts of the body, it instantaneously transformed the feeling of laziness and ennui, into one of hustling energy and alertness. The negroes of the Southern States, the natives of tropical countries and also officials in the police departments of large cities, were the ones benefitted by this “golden medical discovery!” 1933 Capital Punishment The abolishment of capital punishment in many States of the Union, through the impulsive sentimentality of a minority, had given birth to an old time evil, that of feudalism. It was well for people preaching mercy for murderers, when somebody else was the victim, but when the crime was perpetrated against one of their homes, their feelings were entirely changed. The increase of vendetta was the result, and it occurred with such a
  • 29. lamentable degree of frequency, that the old uncontrovertible Mosaic law, blood for blood, and life for life was re-established. 1934 Abolition of Hereditary Titles In England The agitation for the abolition of hereditary titles in England caused a crisis in the political and social world of Great Britain. The degeneracy of hereditary nobles, their utter incapacity adequately to fill the positions left by their illustrious ancestors, to the detriment and retrogression of the British government, was the main cause of bringing about this bloodless internecine revolution. Despite the most strenuous opposition by the friends of the nobles, a new law was added to the revised Magna Charta, by an overwhelming public demand. With few exceptions, it nullified the existing titles, and elevated to peerage only worthy citizens for life, on condition of the good behavior of the incumbent. This excellent law brought fresh and saving blood into the political and civic life of England. The movement precipitated the abandonment of the House of Lords and created in its stead a body called Senatorium, whose members were elected by the tax-paying citizens. 1935 Blowing the Earth Into Fragments The most remarkable sensation of this year was that of a German scientist and statistician who, after a thorough investigation and mathematical calculation, announced his conclusions, that it was in the range of collective human power, that is, by the combined aid of labor, time, money and high
  • 30. explosives, to rend the earth in twain, or into fragments, and thus create new planets in space, producing new climatic conditions, fauna and life, adaptable to their new positions in the solar system. 1937 An American Penal Colony The census of this year revealed an unprecedented number of evil-doers, causing great anxiety to the Government. There were recorded ninety-two thousand criminals in prisons and seventy-six thousand paupers in the poor houses. This army of public charges cost the State authorities more than thirty million dollars for their maintenance. At last by the stress of popular agitation the government adopted a policy of penal colonization. Selecting a desirable island in the Philippines, the Federal authorities succeeded in transporting to the island, within three years, and with half the cost of their maintenance at home, one hundred thousand of these unfortunate malefactors. Here, they were given every facility and aid, for acquiring and building of homes, farms and factories, and within ten years, under a wise military administration more than half of that number were reclaimed, forming a prosperous and loyal community in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1938 The Great Telescope With the munificent contributions to a general fund, amounting to two million dollars, by the English, American and French Governments, the
  • 31. greatest telescope which the world has ever known was constructed in Paris. Its lenses measured more than two meters in diameter which, combined with a mammoth revolving camera obscura, brought the moon and some of the planets within the range of visual observation, revealing on Venus and Mars the existence of vegetation and moving objects. 1939 The Earth An Electric Motor Emil Flammarion, the worthy grandson of the eminent French astronomer, demonstrated by an extremely clever mechanical contrivance in Vacuo, that the Earth was merely an electric Motor in space! 1940 The Trend of Religious Thought Religious thought or spiritual belief is not an invention of mortals. It is an inborn attribute of the human mind. While man was in his savage or semi- barbarous stage, the ethical and spiritual conceptions were correspondingly crude and religious warfare predominated. With the advance of civilization its development kept pace with it until at the dawn of the twentieth century it had undergone, by natural evolution, a marked metamorphosis. It gradually divested itself of its legendary mysticism, fantastic dogmas and spectacular schisms, and all intelligent thinkers promulgated a propaganda, not of external forms of worship, but those uncontrovertible basic truths, which always will hold.
  • 32. It is true that in an era of commercial materialism great masses of people embraced agnosticism and ethical culture, rejecting that supernatural conception of a first cause of which they claimed their limited intellect had a vague idea and was deeper than the hazy human comprehension, yet, the shallow Ingersolian philosophy of attacking a force—which filled millions with hope and goaded them to self-sacrifice, mercy and charity—without substituting something better, was repudiated by the intelligent, and appealed only to the abnormal and the foolish. This tendency of materialism in religion continued unabated, until the startling announcement of a German scientist—who claimed it was within human power to rend the world in twain—also the marvelous revelation through the mammoth telescope—by which was discovered moving objects and vegetation in other planets—brought on an acute crisis. A tremendous religious revival swept all over the world. It expanded the mental horizon of human conceptions. The existence of living organism in other spheres came within rational deductions. The possible existence of beings far superior in intellect to ourselves, came within the limit of legitimate theorizations, and the more men began to grasp with the co-operation of science, the infinite vastness of the universe, with its numberless millions of habitable worlds, the probability of an intelligent force of vast creative power came within the scope of human understanding. The forceful passage in the Holy Writ “that God created man in his own image” became more and more lucid. Consequently the pantheism of the old Greeks were revived with more clearness, and the existence of a personal God somewhere in this boundless universe appealed to multitudes with new zest. “Pray, Professor, what is your opinion of a first cause?” ventured one of the students. “There are so many mysterious forces,” answered the Professor, “that although we cannot see, yet we feel their power and are conscious of their results. And as our mortal organism cannot conceive a thought which is
  • 33. beyond its own limitations, the very idea of our thought of a first cause falls within the range of human conceptions. “When we gaze at an automobile, which is the creation of a creature, we see a wonderful parallelism; its requirements to make it an active energy, bears a strong analogy of its inventor, yet, an automobile with all its requirements for power supplied, is a worthless mass, unless operated and guided by its creator. Does not this vast universe with all its wonderful manifestations suggest a creative force, which governs it?” “Albeit, it is not within my province nor in my power to penetrate the veil” continued the Professor, looking up in pensive mood. “But as the coral protoplasm begins its edifice from the calcerous mire in the dark recesses of the ocean, upwards through the murky and semi-transparent liquid, finally reaches the pelucid surface, kisses the wave and sees the light, me-thinks likewise, the spiritual perceptions of mankind which has grown from the depths of savagery and through the maze of intolerance, dogmas and schisms, will go onward in its evolution and perhaps our posterity will at last penetrate the mystic veil and see the light,—God.” 1941 The Birthday Anniversary of Noted Centenarians “Lithia Bingham,” “Young Dr. Bray” and “Sister Eddy” received the homage and congratulations of millions of their admirers, on their hundred and fiftieth birthday anniversary. The remarkable longevity of this trio of Methuselahs was attributed, in the case of the two first mentioned, to their own “cure all” concoctions, and the last, to her scientific revelation of thinking that, there is no such thing as pain or death!
  • 34. “In closing this review of historical events,” said the Professor looking around the auditorium, “there are a few other important happenings that bring us to the present decade. “The remarkable decadence of Germany under a Socialistic regime, a doctrine, that although theoretically seems to be so desirably altruistic, convincing, and in poetry sounds so well, but in practise has proved to be detrimental to a life of strenuous efforts, and suicidal to individual ambitions—conditions which are eminently essential to growing and prosperous communities. “The consequent exodus of Teutons to other parts of the world that promised freedom to independent action. “The political union of Spain and Portugal. “The re-conquest by France of Alsace Lorain. “The puerile uprising by a section of Irish people against England are still fresh in our memory—and to which most of you have been eye-witnesses— are some of the events worthy of record.” Here the Professor, after a pause, changed his subject to future possibilities and, presenting to the class in eloquent words a glowing, optimistic picture of conditions for future generations, brought his discussion to a close. When he stepped down from the rostrum he was at once surrounded by the entire class and was tendered an impromptu but agreeable reception.
  • 36. The Regatta There was still one great event before the closing of the academic year of the Diana Seminary Seniors, in which the class had taken extraordinary interest. It was the first time in the history of the Seminary that students were to take part in aquatic sports against male contestants. The day for the great handicap regatta—a four-oared affair—between the Senior class of the Seminary and the Sophomore class of the West Point Military Academy followed directly after graduation,—the class grade being the handicap allowed to the Seminary girls. Aurora and Margaret, after their avowal and covenant, were again in normal condition, cheerful as of yore, and as they were the most available pair for the aquatic contest, from the beginning they had been chosen unanimously as the exponents of the class of 1960, and they went into the execution of the sport with vim and enthusiasm. As the event was a unique one, it had become the most lively topic of conversation among the people, and long before it took place had caused widespread interest in the country. Having been advertised and exploited extensively in the daily press, it is needless to say that an unusually large concourse of visitors had arrived by land and water to witness the classic and unusual contest. The course of the race was laid near Poughkeepsie and was in the shape of a heart, that is, starting at a given point, side by side, they raced about half a mile abreast, then one crew turning to port and the other to starboard, diverging in a parabolic circle, passed each other in the center within a short distance of the starting point, and making counter-circles started on the home run, again abreast. (See diagram, page 90.) The personnel of the Seminary crew consisted of the following young ladies: Aurora Cunningham, coxswain; Margaret MacDonald, stroke;
  • 37. Horatia Seymour, number one; Eunice Ward, number two; and Norma Southworth at the bow. The “Diana” Course. When the preliminary signal to make ready was given, both the crews rowed gracefully to the starting ground and began to manoeuvre. At the sharp report of the signal gun, the two shells shot past the line almost abreast, amidst deafening acclamation from the spectators on the shore and the shrill tooting and whistling of the sailing craft of every description that had formed almost a compact circle around the course. The calm and pleasant weather had allowed the waters of the Hudson to run as smooth as a looking-glass, except for the turbulence caused by the ever restless pleasure boats thronged with sightseers, each endeavoring to get a better vantage point of the impending struggle. As the contest progressed, the interest of the watchers began to increase. Thousands of field and marine glasses and lorgnettes were leveled at the racers as they sped along the course. The teams had now reached the point of divergence, and had begun to recede from each other at every stroke on their parabolic circuit, the boys turning to port and the girls to starboard. But alas! Hardly had the Seminary shell advanced half a dozen strokes when, by some unexpected and inexplicable accident, Margaret’s feet slipped off the foot guard and, in an
  • 38. instant, she was thrown into the waters of the Hudson, the shell meanwhile gliding swiftly by. Instantly the air was filled by a deafening cry of dismay from the throats of thousands of eager spectators, coupled with piercing whistles of the steamboats. What a moment of anguish for the Diana Seminary girls! What a shocking sense of humiliation for the fair contestants! To think that in an event so crucial for their honor and standing, such an unforeseen disaster should overwhelm them! On the “Homestretch”
  • 39. But fate was with them. It was decreed that such a catastrophe should happen in order to heighten the grandeur of their ultimate victory. While the spectators were still paralyzed with the awful situation before them, there was activity and heroism among the Diana mermaids in the shell. The instant Aurora with her alert eyes saw Margaret’s mishap, she realized at once the situation and before the shell had glided past, she leaned over and caught Margaret by the hair. By the same impulsive and almost animal agility, Margaret grasped Aurora’s arm and in another moment, with less loss of time than would seem possible, she was again in the shell. In a twinkling of an eye the breathless girl had resumed her place at the oar as if nothing had happened. Aware of the loss of distance by this untoward accident, which was, in fact, more than four boats’ length, but undismayed and as if invigorated by her impromptu bath, in order to recover lost ground Margaret set the pace at a higher speed and forged ahead with might and main. When the throngs on land and water realized what had happened the din of exultation and cheering was beyond description and this did not abate until the race was finished. Overwrought by the sight of this heroic exploit of the girls, men and women had become madly hysterical. When the shells crossed each other at the half-mile stake it was seen that the Seminary girls had recovered considerable ground, leaving a margin of less than two boats’ length. Encouraged by the splendid showing made, and goaded to endeavor by the rapturous applause of the populace, Margaret and the rest of the crew seemed to gain new strength. And when Aurora with the megaphone gave the order of thirty-six strokes a minute, they set the pace with marvelous vigor and precision, causing consternation among their masculine antagonists. On the completion of the second parabola of their circuit and when coming on to the line for the homestretch, it was noticeable that the Seminary shell was only a trifle behind. The crucial moment had come.
  • 40. They were now almost abreast on the homestretch. The intensity of the exciting scene had for a moment cast a profound silence upon the spectators. Every one was straining his eyes and neck to see the momentous finish, only to break again into a bedlam of rapturous shouting when the girls were seen to be in the lead. It was indeed a sight never to be forgotten, when the Seminary shell shot past the finish line a full boat’s length ahead, and the girls were acclaimed by the populace as victors. The Winning Crew The intensity of the joy of the throng, and the plight of their utter abandon, can be conjectured when it was discovered afterwards that eight hundred and ninety-one ladies’ and two thousand three hundred and seventy-nine gentlemen’s head-gear were picked up in the Hudson. The next day and through the week following, divers reaped a good harvest by bringing up from the river’s bed one thousand three hundred and ninety-four field, marine and opera glasses, and two hundred and seventy-five lorgnettes, besides innumerable parasols and canes which the people in their abandon had thrown about.
  • 41. This episode was the crowning glory of the Seminary and the beginning of a new epoch in the history of this institution.
  • 43. Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba Like a nebular comet in a far away constellation, so mysterious in its orbit and composition, was Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba, who suddenly made his appearance in the suburbs of the cosmopolitan city of B—— on Long Island. He occupied the spacious mansion of a wealthy merchant, who had abandoned it for a more comfortable lodge in the Adirondacks. Surrounded by somewhat neglected clumps of pines and shrubberies, the establishment was entirely isolated from the highway and most suitable for a man like the Hindoo doctor, who seemed always to desire seclusion. In order to form an idea of his singular personality, a brief description will perhaps enlighten the reader. He was tall, lank, of swarthy complexion, endowed with a cyranesque proboscis and a moustache which protruded like the tusks of a walrus. His eyebrows resembled the moustache in miniature. His big greenish-yellow eyes, with spacious white borders and cat-like pupils, were able to bring to bear an intensely hypnotic gaze, which had an irresistible and subjective power. As he was invariably attired in the picturesque costume of his country, and from the fine texture of the silken turban and embroidered robes, could easily be conjectured that he belonged to a high caste and noble Hindoo family. He had a peculiar walk, continually swerving from side to side as he moved, wriggling and swinging his indispensable jessamine cane, which from its serpentine convolutions looked as if it had been hardened while in convulsions. The people of the neighborhood, although amused by his strange antics, entertained great respect for him. To some, especially to young people, he seemed a monstrosity. They had already nick-named him the “Crazy Doctor.” Vague rumors circulated among the gossip-loving residents that he was a political refugee, who, finding his life in danger in India, had fled from his native land. But no one doubted his ability as a physician and surgeon, for in a short time he had founded a reputation that commanded respect.
  • 44. His cadaverous look, his strange hypnotic eye and mysteriously eccentric movements, enhanced a hundredfold his reputation rather than damaged it. Every one considered him a man of great learning, a wizard in the science of healing and stood aghast exclaiming wonderingly, “Whence cometh this mighty healing power?” When Dr. Ben Raaba made his advent in B—— he was accompanied by a robust, well-formed and intelligent-looking Levantine Jew servant, Esau by name. This person minded his own business, and proved himself to be a very discreet servant, never divulging his master’s secrets to any outsider. A few months after taking up their residence, however, the place resembled a private menagerie. Scores of cats, dogs, of high and low degree, pigs and goats of every size made their appearance. Dr. Hyder, notwithstanding various opinions of others, was in reality a mysterious and remarkable man; despite his thorough British education and extensive travels in foreign lands, was a believer in the tenets of a Hindoo sect called the Saktian Yogis, a believer of Mahadeva, whose spouse of a dual nature—spiritual and material principles in one—has three qualities: first, Dominion and Desire; second, Rectitude and Wisdom, with power to control senses; and third, Violence and Passion. The Doctor, moreover, was conversant with all the Hindoo mysticism and sciences, astronomy and magic. He was capable of restraining respiration, besides being a natural born hypnotist of great power. Modern practical medicine and surgery were also among the Doctor’s accomplishments, as he had a seven year course in the National University of Medicine of London. His appearances in public began to diminish gradually after the various animals were received there, as he was engrossed in his laboratory, engaged in some experiment in vivisection! Indeed, in the dead of night, weird and uncanny sounds often emanated from the inner recesses of his laboratory. Sometimes a piteous mew, or the piercing caterwaul of felines, or the whining of dogs. At other times, the plaintive beating of a goat, the squeaking of a goose or the squeal of a pig broke the silence of the night,
  • 45. while at intervals, now and then, several owls on the roof gave vent to their weird hootings. Hyder Ben Raaba and the Goat in the Garden This state of affairs naturally gave an awful aspect to the place, and kept the inquisitive villagers at a distance, while the mischievous youngsters gave the place no trouble from trespassing. The only incident which reached the public was told by a precocious youth who, with grim determination, strived to unravel the mysteries of the place, on a cloudy night had crawled into the garden, climbed a tree, and hidden himself until later on, when the full moon appeared above the horizon and cast its hazy light through the clouds. Then an uncanny sight was unfurled before his eyes; there, sitting under the shadow of a weeping willow tree, the Hindoo Doctor, apparently, was in the act of hypnotizing a goat, with weird gestures and incantations. Unnerved by this strange sight, the intruder, losing his grip and footing, fell to the ground. The hooting of an owl and a fiendish howl from the Doctor
  • 46. gave the youth a further impetus to scamper for life, over shrubberies and picket fence, out of the domain of the Hindoo vampire! Upon the youth’s recital of his experience, the feeling of mystery and fear increased among the unsophisticated people of the neighborhood and they kept shy of the place. But the climax of their apprehension was reached when, shortly after, the following curious sign adorned the main gate to the house: DR. HYDER BEN RAABA VIVISECTIONIST AND RE-INCARNATOR What was the meaning of these significant words on his shingle, “Vivisectionist and Re-incarnator?” What was the mission of this mysterious man? To what line of surgical science did this assortment of animals contribute, whose piteous wails ever and anon emanated from his laboratory? Up to that time a chain of wonderful discoveries and marvelous achievements had been attained by profound savants in surgical and pathological subjects: The creation of life germ cells: The trepanning of skulls and the re-arrangement of the brains: The grafting of skin, nose and ear: The infusion of new blood: The pre-natal determination of sexes: The separation of mind from the body, by subjecting persons in a cataleptic state by hypnotism: And last but not least, the hibernation for an indefinite period of living bodies by suspended animation. These amazing triumphs, each more startling than the other, were the records of past achievements. Could there be anything more astounding? Even so, Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba, who was conversant with all the above mentioned exploits of experimenters, had conceived one of the boldest and extraordinarily audacious of surgical feats, the successful demonstration of which would startle the world and make men stand aghast with wonder. In
  • 47. fact, by the display of his professional sign, it was a foregone conclusion that he had succeeded in his experiments. By the aid of science, occultism and wonderful magic, he had transformed the sexes!
  • 49. A Ray of Hope It was the day of departure of Aurora Cunningham for London, England. Margaret had accompanied her in an automobile to the city of B—— to see her off. Their parting had an unusual sadness as they stood on the deck of the Dynamoship “Columbia”—a four-day ocean greyhound. They seemed to be paralyzed at the barrenness of the future, looking into each other’s eyes as if trying to challenge sincerity to their oath of allegiance. It was extremely touching indeed, when they were compelled by the officers of the ship to take their final leave, and as the Columbia began to recede gradually from its moorings, her prow compassed to the British Isles, Aurora’s lithe figure could be seen at the stern of the boat, throwing kisses and waving her handkerchief toward Margaret, until the distance grew wider and farther and the figure fainter and at last was lost to view. Left alone on the shore, Margaret did her utmost to control her emotions of parting from her beloved friend. With suppressed feelings she mounted her automobile reluctantly, and bade the chauffeur proceed to New York City, from whence, after a short repose, she intended to take the train for her home in Wyoming. She had hardly gone a mile or two out of the city of B—— when her emotions had swelled beyond her capacity of control and she became delirious in her seat in the auto. Some pedestrians by the way, noticing that something unusual had happened to the fair occupant, called the attention of the chauffeur to his charge. He brought the machine to a standstill and the necessity of enlisting the services of a doctor was at once apparent. One of the bystanders suggested that the nearest available doctor was the Hindoo surgeon, Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba, about a furlong farther down the road, and thither the patient was wheeled with all possible haste, and within a few minutes she was in the Doctor’s reception room.
  • 50. After a cursory examination Ben Raaba appeared somewhat puzzled. “She is in a state of coma,” he said, rubbing his forehead with his bony fingers, “but I do not yet see any physical cause to induce that condition. It seems to me,” he added, “that every function of the organs are in a perfectly normal state.” His face brightened at once, however, with a smile of victory. A happy thought had come to his fertile mind. He had thought of the singular methods practised by the diagnostician Avicene of Balk—the father of occult Diagnosis—and the words of the Cashmerian poet came to his memory, who nearly ten centuries previously had said: “The pulse of the loving, beats higher, agitated only at the name of the beloved.” Taking thereupon her pulse into his hand, he began to question the chauffeur, where she had gone, with whom, what was the other young lady’s name, etc. He knew that, although she was in a state of coma, her senses of hearing and of understanding were performing their regular functions. At the mention of the name of Aurora Cunningham there was a remarkable change in Margaret; her pulse began to beat double quick! After repeating the experiment, and satisfying himself that the cause was a matter pertaining the heart, in fact the girl’s infatuation for her departed friend, and that there was nothing in the Materia Medica as an antidote, that the only restorative remedy that could be found was in hypnotic occultism, he leaned over the prostrate figure before him and whispered some words into her ear. The correctness of his diagnosis became plainly evident. The patient, with perfect tranquility, opened her eyes, and with a complacent smile looked into the face of her restorer. After a few more magnetic passes and words of encouragement from the Wizard, she had completely recovered herself, to the amazement of the anxious group of persons who had gathered there, curious to know the fate of the fair occupant of the automobile. Within half an hour she again entered her auto and proceeded on her way to the city.
  • 51. The new and remarkable personality of Hyder Ben Raaba, however, left an ineradicable impression upon her mind, so much as at times to divert her thoughts from dwelling upon Aurora and concentrate upon the strange visage of Hyder Ben Raaba. After a repose of a few days in New York, having made all the preparations for the intended journey, she left the metropolis and arrived in due time at her paternal home in Wyoming. Hardly a month had elapsed after her return when there was another crisis in her life. Her father was taken suddenly ill and died, and she was left an heiress to a large fortune consisting principally of lands, mines and cattle. Being without any relatives to guide her, Margaret was compelled to settle matters for herself, and daily she was confronted by hundreds of annoying details. These consisted of many entangling affairs of her lamented father, who had left her sole legatee, prospective aspirants who sought her hand in marriage, her solemn and binding oath to Aurora, and, strange as it may seem, the grotesquely hideous face of Ben Raaba began to flit before her mind’s eye, perplexing and haunting her incessantly. One evening when she was thus absorbed in deep meditation, the postman brought her a letter. It was mailed from B——. Excitedly she tore open the envelope and from it fell the professional card of Dr. Hyder Ben Raaba. The same weird and ominous words were printed under his name: “The Vivisectionist and Re-incarnator”! On the other side were scribbled a few lines, making inquiry about the state of her health. The card, ah! the strange and significant words, vivisection and re- incarnation began to assume a deep meaning. She placed the card tremblingly upon the table and fell into a profound study. Her quivering frame, the rise and fall of her heaving breast and the change of color of her face alternatively from pallor to a feverish flush, indicated that there was a revolution going on within her immaculate bosom. At last she seemed to come to some determination; tremblingly she grasped a pen and wrote a letter to Ben Raaba, the contents of which never became known to any but herself and the Hindoo doctor. Within a fortnight she received an answer which seemed to satisfy her.
  • 52. Within two months she had managed hastily to dispose of all her personal property and real estate without any reserve, and then she disappeared from her Western home and surroundings and was lost forever to her former friends.
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