Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice
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The document discusses the complexities of food sustainability, emphasizing the interconnectedness of food systems and their environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss. It highlights the challenges posed by climate change on food security, particularly for vulnerable populations, and emphasizes the need for adaptive measures and sustainable practices. Recommendations include improving agricultural practices, reducing food waste, and exploring alternative food sources to ensure long-term food and nutrition security.
![Example
contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing
food
Processing
& Packaging
food
Distributing
& Retailing
food
Consuming
food
Climate
change
GHGs,
albedo
Energy Emissions from
transport and
cold chain
GHGs from
cooking
N cycle Eutrophicn,
GHGs
Effluent NOx from
transport
Waste
P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste
Fresh water
Irrigation Washing,
use
heating, cooling
Cleaning food Cooking,
cleaning
Land use
change
Intensificn,
soil degdn
Paper/card Transport &
retail
infrastructure
Forest to edible
oils plantation
Biodiversity
loss
Deforestation,
soils, fishing
[Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer
choices
Atmos.
aerosols
Dust Shipping Smoke from
cooking
Chemical
pollution
Pesticides Effluent Transport
emissions
Cooking,
cleaning](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/systemsapproachtomodellingfoodsustainabilityhelfgott-141112101151-conversion-gate02/85/Systems-Approach-to-Modelling-Food-Sustainability-From-Concepts-to-Practice-16-320.jpg)
![Agricultural intensification
leads to declines in pollinators …
“… a widespread pattern of loss of pollinator richness and abundance as a
result of agricultural intensification and habitat loss.” [since 1980]
Potts et al., 2010, Trends in Ecol & Evol](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/systemsapproachtomodellingfoodsustainabilityhelfgott-141112101151-conversion-gate02/85/Systems-Approach-to-Modelling-Food-Sustainability-From-Concepts-to-Practice-25-320.jpg)
Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice
- 1. Systems Approach to Modelling Food Sustainability: From Concepts to Practice ? Ariella Helfgott Food Systems Research Group Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford
- 2. Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012) … is universally applicable … is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems
- 3. Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
- 4. … all of which contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries.
- 5. Agriculture as a driver of Land-cover Change ‘Extensification’ •• Biodiversity loss • Soil degradation • Altered hydrology • Altered biogeochemical cycling • GHG emissions • … all PBs?
- 6. Species’ threats attributable to agriculture … “Among the drivers of habitat loss for mammals, agriculture and pastoralism are the most important, together affecting 40% of terrestrial mammals” IUCN, Red List of threatened species, 2010
- 7. Contribution of capture fisheries to biodiversity loss
- 8. Agriculture as a source of GHG emissions Mt CO2-e, 2010 Worldwatch Institute’s Vital Signs Online Service (www.worldwatch.org)
- 9. But Food Systems involve more than ‘agriculture’ …
- 10. UK’s food industry “costs” (post- farmgate) • 14% of energy consumption defra, 2006 by UK businesses and 7 million tonnes of carbon emissions per year • 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply • 10% of the industrial and commercial waste stream • 25% of all HGV vehicle kilometres in the UK
- 11. Processing Food: water use and effluent • 10% of all industrial use of the public water supply • Effluent significantly affects aquatic habitats • large amounts of organic materials such as proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids • high biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or chemical oxygen demand (COD) • high N and P concentration • high suspended oil or grease contents • high variations in pH Defra, 2006; Kroyer, 1995; Prasad et al. 2010
- 12. Packaging Food • Use of raw materials for packaging • Real and virtual energy content • Litter • Adverse consequences of careless disposal of packaging, esp. marine biodiversity
- 13. Packaging Food • Litter • Adverse consequences of careless disposal of packaging, esp. marine • Use of raw materials for packaging • Real and virtual energy content • 7% GHG emissions from UK food system (Garnett, 2008)
- 14. Guardian 1 February 2009 Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of super-markets’ direct GHG emissions (Environment Investigation Agency, 2010) Retailing food
- 15. GHG emissions across Food Systems UK USA India Producing Processing Distributing Consuming Waste disposing Garnett, FCRN, 2009 Edwards et al., Inst Agric & Trade Policy, 2009 Pathak et al, Ag, Ecosys & Env, 2010
- 16. Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Climate change GHGs, albedo Energy Emissions from transport and cold chain GHGs from cooking N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs Effluent NOx from transport Waste P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste Fresh water Irrigation Washing, use heating, cooling Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning Land use change Intensificn, soil degdn Paper/card Transport & retail infrastructure Forest to edible oils plantation Biodiversity loss Deforestation, soils, fishing [Aluminium] Invasive spp Consumer choices Atmos. aerosols Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking Chemical pollution Pesticides Effluent Transport emissions Cooking, cleaning
- 17. How do Climate Change and drivers of crossing Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security? ? Food Security, i.e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS •Affordability •Allocation •Preference •Nutritional Value •Social Value •Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY •Production •Distribution •Exchange
- 18. Extreme weather affects affordability… Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up Cost of wheat is 10% of cost of loaf of bread in the US, but 90% cost of chapatti in India
- 19. … and food storage …
- 20. … and food distribution …
- 21. … and aspects of food safety. • Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage • Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure • Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms • Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves. Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
- 22. … and food availability ... • UK normally exports ca. 2.5 Mt wheat / yr • Wettest 2012 autumn since records began • Coldest 2013 spring in 50 yr => UK expects to import 2.5 Mt in 2013
- 23. … and hence food price.
- 24. Consequences of the 2008 Food Price Crisis
- 25. Agricultural intensification leads to declines in pollinators … “… a widespread pattern of loss of pollinator richness and abundance as a result of agricultural intensification and habitat loss.” [since 1980] Potts et al., 2010, Trends in Ecol & Evol
- 26. … and tropospheric O3 pollution reduces yields. Mills et al, NERC-CEH, 2011
- 27. Background So why the need to change things? 1. Planetary Boundary concerns are clear • climate change • biodiversity loss • other PBs • Complex interactions between the food system and the environment 2. Food Security a major concern • ~ 1b hungry • ~ 2b insufficient nutrients • > 2.5b overweight or obese
- 28. Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 2 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs currently ~ 3 billion Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) Constraints on dietary choice and diversity currently >2.5 billion Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 1 billion CONSUMERS affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities FOOD CHAIN ACTORS processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Nutrient Quantity and Price Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price PRODUCERS Productivity Diversity & Quality
- 29. 2025 2000 Looking ahead ... The biodiversity and other environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems are dire The potential health care costs from obesity-related The economic costs of diagnosed diabetes in Too much ---- Appropriate ---- -- Too little -- 1 2200 the US alone in 2012 is $245 billion - Too much - ----- Appropriate amount ----- -- Too little -- Billions of people (indicative; not to scale) NCDs are massive 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2050 2014 kcal/person/day consumed ------ Too much ------ ---- Appropriate amount ---- --- Too little --- ----------- Too much ------------ --- Appropriate amount --- ----- Too little -----
- 30. Resilience: common threads… • Response of a system to disturbance or change • All definitions describe one or more of these three types of behaviour: • Absorbing/withstanding • Recovering • Adapting beneficially
- 35. Summary Resilience is a property of a system that describes the nature of the response of the system to a particular disturbance, of a particular magnitude, from the perspective of a particular observer over a specified timescale We need to know OF WHAT, TO WHAT, FROM WHOSE PERSPECTIVE, OVER WHAT TIME FRAME
- 36. Framing resilience involves specifying…
- 40. Modelling the food system • Define system boundaries • Variables of interest • Changes and shocks of interest • Interventions of interest • Measures of success or improvement • Timeframe • These decisions will effect the results and conclusions drawn from any model • Many participatory approaches available for framing and modelling the food system
- 41. Modelling the Food System • Different perspectives – Actors, activities, outcomes – Social, environmental, economic, political • Types of models – Fuzzy Cognitive Maps – System Dynamics – Stochastic Models
- 43. Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 2 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs currently ~ 3 billion Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) Constraints on dietary choice and diversity currently >2.5 billion Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs currently ~ 1 billion CONSUMERS affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities FOOD CHAIN ACTORS processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Nutrient Quantity and Price Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Nutrient Quantity and Price PRODUCERS Productivity Diversity & Quality
- 44. So what do we do about it? ✓ Adapt to inevitable change ✓ Mitigate further change => Do the “doing things” differently …
- 45. Improve agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture, fisheries, … • More varied crops • Stress-tolerant varieties • Novel food producing systems • Improve water mgmt • Insurance for producers • Wider range of food stuffs
- 46. … consider insect protein for better land-use … Range in land use (m2) per kg of edible protein De Vries and De Boer 2010; Oonincx and De Boer 2012.
- 47. … consider wholly novel foods …
- 48. … reduce food losses and waste … ~ 30% worldwide FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011
- 49. … and reduce over-consumption.
- 50. Thank you