The 2013 NRC Decadal Survey in Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics)

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Daniel N. Baker, University of Colorado, Chair
Thomas H. Zurbuchen, University of Michigan, Vice-Chair
National Research Council Staff
Art Charo, Space Studies Board, Study Director
Abigail Sheffer, Space Studies Board

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2013-2022: A decade of discovery enabled by new and
innovative approaches and tools and by treating
heliophysics as a system; focus on societal impact.

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 The Decadal Survey Process
 Accomplishments of the Past Decade
 The Recommended Scientific Program
 A Revitalized National Space Weather
Program

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1. Provide an overview of the science and
a broad survey of the current state of
knowledge in the field
2. Identify the most compelling science
challenges
3. Identify the highest priority scientific
targets for the interval 2013-2022
4. Develop an integrated research strategy

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 Study initiated in Fall 2010.
 National in scope, including NASA, NSF, NOAA and DOD
investments in solar and space physics
 Review has been community based
 300 white papers with ideas and new concepts
 Numerous town-hall meetings and workshops
 85 NRC-appointed participants
 18 Steering Committee members
 Recommended program fit to available resources.
 Cost and technical evaluation (CATE) of selected NASA reference
mission concepts performed by the Aerospace Corp., which worked
under contract with the NRC.
 Considers challenging financial constraints

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The Heliophysics System Observatory

Understanding Solar Variability
Solar Dynamics
Observatory

Left image courtesy of
R. Casalegno, C. Conselice et
al., WIYN, NOAO
Other images from
HubbleSite.org

Multiple deep passes into
solar corona

We need to learn:
- How complex systems
catastrophically
reconfigure themselves
- How local (multiscale)
turbulence relates to
global-scale system
instability: MMS

Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere
(AIM)

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 Determine the origins of the Sun’s activity and
predict the variations of the space environment.
 Determine the dynamics and coupling of Earth’s
magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere and
their response to solar and terrestrial inputs.
 Determine the interaction of the Sun with the solar
system and the interstellar medium.
 Discover and characterize fundamental processes that
occur both within the heliosphere and throughout the
universe.

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 The survey committee’s recommended
program for NSF and NASA assume continued
support in the near-term for the key existing
program
 For NASA: complete RBSP, MMS, Solar Probe
Plus, Solar Orbiter; also IRIS and Explorer
selections.
 For NSF: complete ATST.

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 DRIVE (Diversify, Realize, Integrate,
Venture, Educate) will enable NASA,
NSF and other agencies to more
effectively exploit their scientific assets.

Diversify observing platforms with microsatellites and mid-scale ground-based assets
Realize scientific potential by sufficiently funding operations and data analysis
Integrate observing platforms and strengthen ties between agency disciplines
Venture forward with science centers and instrument and technology development
Educate, empower, and inspire the next generation of space researchers
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 Diversity:
 Enhance Cubesat opportunities
 Create a mid-scale ($4-90M) line for ground-based projects.
 Realize: Provide sufficient funding for efficient and
scientifically productive operation of Advanced Technology
Solar Telescope.
 Integrate: Multi-disciplinary program in laboratory plasma
astrophysics; include planetary magnetospheres,
ionospheres, Sun as star, and outer heliosphere in research
portfolio.
 Venture: Multi-agency development of critical mass science
centers.
 Educate: Promote faculty and curriculum development and
visibility of solar and space physics.

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 A new funding line for mid-scale projects at the National Science
Foundation will facilitate long-recommended ground-based projects,
such as COSMO (COronal Solar Magnetism Observatory) and FASR
(Frequency-Agile Solar Radio-telescope), by closing the funding gap
between large and small programs.

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 The recommended augmentation of the
Explorer line allows for missions in a
restored MIDEX line to be deployed in
alternation with SMEX missions at a 2-3
year cadence; also allows regular
selection of MOOs.

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 NASA’s Solar Terrestrial Probes program to
be restructured as a moderate-sized,
competed, principal investigator-led (PI-led)
mission line that is cost-capped at $520
million per mission in fiscal year 2012 dollars
including full lifecycle costs.

 Strategic balancing the portfolio for the coming decade is
driven by the need for faster mission cadence and reduced
mission cost.
 The PI-Mode development approach is a proven method
for managing mission content to achieve maximum science
value within a controlled cost structure.
 Historical data demonstrates that the PI-Mode when
executed for small and medium Space Physics missions is a
statically proven method for achieving cost-effective
science.

 Analysis by Aerospace Corporation as part
of CATE validation process concluded that
“The actual costs of PI-led missions tend to
be less than the actual costs of other
missions of a comparable complexity .”
 The figure to the right illustrates this
conclusion for missions in the low to mid
cost range of 40% to 80% complexity.
 It is important to recognize that the
percentage of post-PDR cost growth is not
necessarily tied to complexity.
 PI-led missions are by nature cost
constrained such that they “managed
down” to a lower initial complexity in order
to achieve acceptable cost and schedule
margin at the time of confirmation.
 Requirements driven missions by their
nature tend to grow in complexity and cost
prior to confirmation.
-- 85% of the PI-led missions are below the
50th percentile median trendline.
-- The median cost for these missions is only
70% of the cost of missions of similar
complexity.

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1. Understand the outer heliosphere and its interaction with
the interstellar medium; measure solar wind inputs to the
terrestrial system.
 Reference mission: IMAP (to be launched in time to
overlap with Voyager)
2. Provide a comprehensive understanding of the variability
in space weather driven by lower atmosphere weather on
Earth.
 Reference mission: DYNAMIC
3. Determine how the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere
system is coupled and how it responds to
solar and magnetospheric forcing.
 Reference mission: MEDICI

IMAP – Interstellar Mapping & Acceleration Probe
Properties and composition of
interstellar medium
 Nature of heliospheric
boundaries
 Nature of particle
acceleration in this boundary
region
 Nature of heliosphere near
L1
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DYNAMIC
Dynamical
Atmosphere
Ionosphere
Coupling

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MEDICI (Magnetosphere Energetics, Dynamics,
and Ionospheric Coupling) plasmas
generate
fields
fields
modify
plasmas

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 LWS: Missions, Targeted Research and
Technology Programs
 Survey committee does not recommend
changes to the organization of LWS
missions, which have been highly
successful.
 Large-class mission line.
 Center-led.

 The upper atmosphere is
intimately connected to
the entire space
environment, including
the solar
wind/magnetosphere and
the troposphere.
 Lack of simultaneous,
global measurements; i.e.,
high inclination orbits at
more than one local time,
prevents progress in
understanding how the
ionosphere/thermosphere
operates and responds as
a “system.”
 New evidence suggests a
strong influence from the
lower atmosphere.
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1. Complete implementation of missions that
are currently selected
2. Initiation of the DRIVE program
3. Execution of a robust Explorer program
4. Launch of strategic missions in the
reinvigorated STP line and in the LWS line
to accomplish the committee’s highest-priority
science objectives. This includes
first the notional IMAP investigation and
then DYNAMIC and MEDICI in the STP
program and GDC as the next larger-class
LWS mission.

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1. Missions in the STP and LWS lines should be reduced
in scope or delayed to accomplish higher priorities.
 Report provides explicit triggers for a NASA review of Solar
Probe Plus to contain cost and/or program balance.
2. If further reductions are needed, the recommended
increase in the cadence of Explorer missions should be
scaled back, with the current cadence maintained as
the minimum.
3. If still further reductions are needed, the DRIVE
augmentation profile should be delayed, with the
current level of support for elements in the NASA
research line maintained as the minimum.

 NASA research satellites, such as ACE, SOHO (with ESA),
STEREO, and SDO, designed for scientific studies have provided
over the past decade or more critical measurements essential for
specifying and forecasting the space environment system,
including the outward propagation of eruptive solar events and
solar wind conditions upstream from Earth.
 While these observational capabilities have become essential for
space environment operations, climatological monitoring, and
research, NASA currently has neither the mandate nor the budget
to sustain these measurements into the future.
 A growing literature has documented the need to provide a long-term
strategy for monitoring in space, and elucidated the large
number of space weather effects, the forecasting of which depend
critically on the availability of suitable data streams.
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 NASA research satellites, such as ACE, SOHO (with ESA),
STEREO, and SDO, designed for scientific studies have provided
over the past decade or more critical measurements essential for
specifying and forecasting the space environment system,
including the outward propagation of eruptive solar events and
solar wind conditions upstream from Earth.
 While these observational capabilities have become essential for
space environment operations, climatological monitoring, and
research, NASA currently has neither the mandate nor the budget
to sustain these measurements into the future.
 A growing literature has documented the need to provide a long-term
strategy for monitoring in space, and elucidated the large
number of space weather effects, the forecasting of which depend
critically on the availability of suitable data streams.
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 The National Space Weather Program should be re-chartered under
the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council and
should include the active participation of the Office of Science and
Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget. The
[re-chartering] plan should build on current agency efforts, leverage
the new capabilities and knowledge that will arise from
implementation of the programs recommended in this report, and
develop additional capabilities, on the ground and in space, that are
specifically tailored to space weather monitoring and prediction.
 Re-chartering provides an opportunity to review the program and to consider
issues pertaining to program oversight and agency roles and responsibilities.
 A comprehensive plan for space weather and climatology is also needed to
fulfill the requirements as presented in the June 2010 U.S. National Space
Policy and as envisioned in the 2010 National Space Weather Program
Strategic Plan.

2. Multi-agency Partnership for Solar/Solar Wind
Observations
 L1 Solar Wind (DSCOVR, IMAP)
 Coronagraph and Magnetograph
 Evaluate New Observations and Platforms
 Establish a SWx Research Program for Effective Research
to Operations Transition at NOAA
 Establish Distinct Programs for Space Physics Research
and Space Weather Forecasting and Specification
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 May 22-23,2008 in Washington DC
 Approximately 80 attendees from
academia, industry, government,
and industry associations
 Association reps aggregated data
and helped avoid concerns about
proprietary or competition-sensitive
data
 Analyses in specific areas; e.g.,
GPS, power industry, aviation,
military systems, human and
robotic exploration beyond low-
Earth orbit
 Econometric analysis of value of
improved SpaceWx forecasts

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 Continue ACE solar wind observations with
DSCOVR, followed by IMAP. Develop a plan for
continuing these observations.
 Continue space-based coronagraph and solar
magnetic field.
 Evaluate utility of new observations made from new
locations, possibly via different platforms.
 NOAA to establish a program to effectively
transition space weather research to operations.
 Distinct funding lines for basic space physics and
space weather specification and forecasting.

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The 2013-2022 Decadal Survey:
 Fits the current fiscal boundary;
 Focuses on research and its societal impact;
 Empowers the community to innovate, take advantage of
the unique constellation of missions and data available
today, and study the coupled domains of heliophysics as a
system;
 Builds the community’s strength and facilitates development
of cost-effective PI-class missions; and
 Recommends exciting missions of historical significance that
hold tremendous promise for new discoveries.

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2013-2022: A decade of discovery enabled by new and
innovative approaches and tools and by treating
heliophysics as a system; focus on societal impact.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13060

The 2013 NRC Decadal Survey in Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics)

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