The Blink
- 4. Don’t Judge a Book by its Cover
- 5. Look Before You Leap
- 6. Why then, in Malcolm Gladwell’s “blink” do we meet…
- 7. A psychologist who can predict within a few minutes whether a couple’s marriage will last more than 15 years…
- 8. A tennis coach who knows when a player will double-fault before the racket even makes contact with the ball…
- 9. Art historians who can recognize whether million dollar pieces are a fake with only a glance…
- 10. The Purpose of ‘blink’Convince you that decisions made very quickly can be every bit as good as decisions made cautiously and deliberatelyExplain when you should trust your instincts and when to be wary of themProve snap judgments and first impressions can be educated and controlled
- 11. The Case of the Kouros1993 An art dealer approaches the Getty Museum with a rare sculpture valued at over $10 million dollarsTo determine its authenticity.14 months examination was issued.Using electron microscopes, microprobes, mass spectrometry, x-ray diffraction, and fluorescenceSculpture is purchased for $10 million
- 12. The Case of the KourosOver the next several years
- 13. Experts receive feeling of disappointment, shock, queasiness, and even nausea when they first view it
- 14. No one has a scientific explanation
- 15. Slowly the case for the authenticity of the kouros falls apart, until its eventually proven fakeGood to a FaultLive or taped, pro or amateur, male or female; Vic Braden could predict a double fault with amazing accuracy
- 16. During testing he could predict 94% of the double faults in a live match
- 17. Braden spent hours and days trying to figure out ‘how’ he knew, never finding an explanationWhy were a group of experts able to be more effective in 2 seconds of observation than 14 months of scientific evaluation?
- 18. In the 2 seconds before a serve, how could Braden predict a double fault with such amazing accuracy?
- 19. Blink attempts to explain those 2 seconds…
- 20. Iowa Gambling ExperimentA simple gambling game
- 21. Maximize the earnings with certain cards.
- 22. What players don’t know
- 23. Red deck is a mine-field
- 24. You win higher amount but you also loose higher How long will it take the average person to figure out the game?
- 25. Iowa Gambling ExperimentOn Average…50 cards for us to realize there is a difference between the decks
- 26. 80 cards for us to understand and explain the differenceHow long will it take for the unconscious brain to figure out the game?
- 27. Iowa Gambling ExperimentIowa Scientists used a machine that measure the activity of the sweat glands below the skin of the palm of your hands
- 28. Gamblers started generating activity in response to the red decks after only 10 cards.
- 29. More importantly, they began favoring the blue decks long before their conscious brain knew what was going on.Jam Experts?Consumer Reports put together a panel of food experts and had them rank 44 exotic jams from best to worse
- 30. Same jams were giving to two different sets of college students
- 31. Group 1: Rank the jams based on first impression
- 32. Group 2: Rank according to a complicated list of criteria and explain their decisionsJam Experts?Group One: Correlation between college students and experts was .55 (considered a incredibly high rating)
- 33. Group Two: Correlation between college students and experts was .11 (considered equivalent to chance)Conscious vs. UnconsciousThe Conscious MindLocated on the left side of the brain
- 35. Can only process 9 items at one time
- 36. Sleeps when we sleep
- 37. Represents 10% of our total brain capacityConscious vs. UnconsciousThe Unconscious MindLocated on the right side of the brain
- 38. Associated with our nervous system, heart rate, homeostasis, memories, experience
- 39. Stays awake when we sleep
- 40. Represents 90% of our total brain capacityConscious vs. UnconsciousThe conscious brain cannot explain the unconscious brain
- 41. Experts could not explain what “looked” wrong about the kouros
- 42. Braden could not explain his double fault accuracy
- 43. Gamblers couldn’t explain why they favored the blue deck after 10 cardsExplaining the UnconsciousExplanations not only are inaccurate, but also hurt the unconscious brain’s ability
- 44. When college students were asked to explain on why they liked each exotic jam, correlations dropped from .55 to .11The “Dark Side” of ‘blink’IAT (Implicit Association Test)https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/demo/selectatest.jsp
- 45. The “Dark Side” of ‘blink’Everyone has some type of preference for age, weight, skin tone, religion, race
- 46. These preferences are made from our experiences, associations, education, etc.
- 47. The conscious is much easier to fake then the unconsciousAdaptive ErrorsErrors in preference have caused…The United States to elect President Warren Harding in 1921, because he ‘looked’ like a presidential candidate
- 48. Fortune 500 companies to hire CEO’s, 33% of which were over 6’2” tall, while the only 3.9% of American adult males are over 6’2”.(an inch of height is worth $769 a year)
- 49. Adaptive ErrorsA study of car salesmen in Chicago showed the following…Car Salesmen offered a group of identical buyers the following price:
- 50. White men: $725 above invoice
- 51. White women: $935 above invoice
- 52. Black women: $1,195 above invoice
- 53. Black men: $1,687 above invoiceHow would our own unconscious preferences affect a strategic management decision?
- 54. How do we overcome these unconscious preferences if we are unable to “look inside” the vault to see them?
- 55. Primed for ActionAssemble each of the following 5 word sets into a sentence using 4 words…him was worries she alwaysfrom are Florida oranges temperatureshoes give replace old thebe will sweat lonely theysky the seamless gray isshould now withdraw forgetfully weus bingo sing play letsunlight makes temperature wrinkle raisins
- 56. Primed for ActionAssemble each of the following 5 word sets into a sentence using 4 words…him was worriedshe alwaysfrom are Florida oranges temperatureshoes give replace oldthebe will sweat lonely theysky the seamless gray isshould now withdraw forgetfully weus bingo sing play letsunlight makes temperature wrinkle raisins
- 57. Primed for ActionStudy created by Psychologist John Bargh
- 58. Same experiment done with two groups, using words such as “aggressive”, “rude”, “bold”, “bother”, and “intrude” vs. “respect”, “patiently”, “polite”, “courteous”
- 59. Subjects were then asked to wait at a window for the results of the testing
- 60. Can you guess what happened?Primed for ActionThe people primed to be rude interrupted, on average, after only 5 minutes of waiting
- 61. The people primed to be polite, NEVER interruptedPrimed for ActionIAT has been proven time and time again to be unchangeable despite your conscious beliefs
- 62. What if you were asked to look at pictures of Martin Luther King Jr., Malcolm X, or Nelson Mandela before you took the Race Association test? Or read about successful female business women before the career/gender test?Primed for ActionWe can change our first impressions, or alter the way we “thin-slice” by changing the experiences that shape those impressions
- 63. This can be changed in the short term through “priming” or in the long term through cumulative experience
- 64. Experience soaks into our unconscious and changes the way we view the worldSo how do we change our strategic management decision preferences or bias?
- 65. Trained to ‘blink’Think about the art experts and the tennis pro…what made their decisions so effective?
- 66. One: They understood, accepted, and relied on “thin-slicing”
- 67. Two: They had no natural preference or bias that needed correction
- 68. Three: Their decisions were made in areas of expertise and passionSeven Seconds In the Bronx: The Delicate Art of Mind Reading
- 69. Seven Seconds In the BronxFirst Impression
- 70. When we first meet someone new and we have a preconceived notion of what that person is like and what they are thinking.
- 71. We use these cues when we meet people in order to read the person’s mind.
- 72. Can be fatal if not used properly.
- 73. Example of 4 undercover police officers and a common man.Strategic Management Case Studies are the “training” of our adaptive unconscious to make sound decisions.
- 74. Steps to ImprovementStep 1: Acknowledge that the adaptive unconscious exists and holds great power
- 75. Step 2: Understand your natural preferences
- 76. Step 3: Use priming to change those preferences or at least compensate for them
- 77. Step 4: Increase experience, education, and practice to sharpen “thin-slicing”The 10 Things Manager Need to Know from BlinkA decision made very quickly can be as accurate as decisions made cautiously and deliberatelySnap judgments and first impressions can be controlled and educated.When the powers of rapid cognition go awry, they go awry for a very specific and consistent set of reasons, and those reasons can be identified and understood.The power of rapid cognition is an ability that everyone can develop.When a judgment is made out of context will usually result in an incorrect response.
- 78. The 10 Things Manager Need to Know from BlinkToo much information can be overwhelming when making a decision and can cause the individual to over analyze a given situation.There are ways to change the way we as individuals think from the lessons taught in BlinkIf you continue to make bad snap judgments, then you have to modify by examining your implicit biasesThere are ways to appeal to and influence consumers through their unconscious mind.Thin-slicing will help improve your ability to read people on first impressions
- 79. Thank You!!!
- 80. Discussion Questions Do you think you could hire someone by ‘thin-slicing’ the candidate during a brief interview? How effective would it be?2. Would you introduce priming in the work environment to help improve customer service?