![refrigeration, transportation, irrigation, genetic manipulation of agricultural
products, aquaculture, containment of rivers, etc.
Climate as a resource is taken for granted. Countries with climates that
have been favorable to agriculture and animal husbandry often take their
good climate conditions as normal. But climate information is also a resource.
Forecasts are a resource. International consultants are a resource, and so forth.
Governments usually leave it to the private sector to enhance the value of
climate to their specific activities.
‘‘Problem climate’’: its first use
About forty years ago (1966) geographer Glenn Trewartha published his book,
The Earth’s Problem Climates. Trewartha’s selection of what he considered to
be the Earth’s ‘‘problem climates’’ was based on information available before
1960. He described a problem climate as one that did not really conform to
what might be expected for a given latitude: ‘‘Were the earth’s surface homo-
geneous (either land or water) and lacking terrain irregularities, it may be
presumed that atmospheric pressure, winds, temperature, and precipitation
would be arranged in zonal or east–west belts’’ (p. 3). He focused on ‘‘regional
climatic aberrations,’’ explicitly noting that he was writing for physical scien-
tists, not for the general public. ‘‘It is designed to meet the needs of those
interested in the professional aspects of climate rather than of laymen. A
methodical description of all the earth’s climates is not attempted, for many
areas are climatically so normal or usual that they require little comment in a
book which professes to emphasize the exceptional’’ (p. 6) [italics added].
Is such a statement still valid, given what we have learned about climate
since 1960? Are there really areas on the globe that could be viewed as
‘‘climatically so normal or usual that they require little comment?’’ Are
there exceptional ‘‘problem climates?’’ Should we also be asking questions
about societies’ role, if any, in the existence of problem climates?
1.3.2 What is normal climate?
Maps such as those originally produced in 1914 by Köppen and later modified
by Trewartha, among others, depict the wide variety of normal climate types
on continents around the globe. Australia provides an example representation
of its so-called normal climate regime (Figure 1.6).
Such maps, while useful for educational purposes, are highly generalized
and do not capture the full range of climate behavior such as its anomalies.
Over time, the borders between climate zones will most likely shift, making
the value of these maps mainly as snapshots of climate regimes for given
periods of time. Nevertheless, they do provide a starting place for discussion
of climate regions on a worldwide basis.
12 1 Introduction](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/10948240-250515071803-e9d22444/85/The-Global-Climate-System-Patterns-Processes-And-Teleconnections-Bridgman-36-320.jpg)
![If you will lay aside the best pictures in the batch I have sent you and
regard them as in part payment of my debt to you, on the day when I shall
have sent you 10,000 francs in pictures, I shall feel much more at ease. The
money already spent during former years must return our way, at least in
the form of articles of value. It is true that I am still very far from having
achieved all that is necessary; but I feel that in the midst of the beautiful
scenery here, everything is at hand to make me do good work. It will only
be my fault, therefore, if I do not succeed. You once told me that in the
space of one month Mauve had painted and sold 6000 francs’ worth of
water-colours. So such strokes of luck are possible, and in spite of all my
monetary troubles I do not see why they should not happen to me.
In the batch I am sending you there are the “Pink’ Orchard,” painted on
coarse canvas, the “White’ Orchard” (landscape shape);[31] and the
“Bridge.” I am of opinion that these pictures will rise in value later on. And
fifty or so pictures like these would compensate us for the small amount of
luck we have had hitherto. Take these three pictures for your collection and
do not sell them; for later on each one of them will certainly fetch 500
francs. I shall begin to breathe freely only when we have collected fifty
such pictures.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/10948240-250515071803-e9d22444/85/The-Global-Climate-System-Patterns-Processes-And-Teleconnections-Bridgman-56-320.jpg)
![For Gauguin—as for many of us, and certainly for ourselves—the future
presents many great difficulties. I firmly believe that we shall triumph in the
end; but will the artists themselves ever be able to taste of that triumph and
enjoy happier days? Has T. written to you? In any case, believe me, your
letter will do good. Even if he does not answer, he will at least hear about
us, etc.
Poor Gauguin is unfortunate; I am afraid that convalescence in his case
will last longer than the fortnight he has had to spend in bed. When shall we
see a generation of artists with healthy bodies? At times I feel really wild
with myself; for, after all, it is no good being either more sick or more
sound than the others; the ideal thing would be to have a temperament
strong enough to reach the age of eighty and to have healthy blood withal.
Still without all this one would be consoled if only one were sure that a
more happily constituted generation of artists was going to follow the
present one.
I see that you have not yet had an answer from T. I do not think it
necessary that we should petition him further by another letter. All the
same, in the event of your having to discuss any matter of business with
him, you might let him feel in a postscript that you are surprised he has not
let you know whether or not he has received the letter in question.
To refer to my work once more: to-day I painted a picture on a canvas
about 25½ in. by 19 in.[32] It represents a drawbridge across which a small
cart is being drawn, that stands out distinctly against the blue sky. The river
is also blue, the banks are orange, and there is much green vegetation about
them. A group of washerwomen are standing on the bank with corsets and
caps of many colours. I have also painted another landscape with a small
rustic bridge and some more washerwomen, and in addition to this, a grove
of plane-trees close to the station. Since I have been here I have painted, in
all, twelve studies.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/10948240-250515071803-e9d22444/85/The-Global-Climate-System-Patterns-Processes-And-Teleconnections-Bridgman-66-320.jpg)
![eyes and displayed tremendous coolness. It was said that he had had enough
for some time. He was dressed in light blue and gold, just like the three
figures in the wood, in our picture “Le’ Petit Cavalier,” by Monticelli. The
arena is superb when it is crammed full of men and the sun is shining.
This month will be hard for you and me; and yet if we can only see our
way to doing so, it would be to our advantage to paint as many blossoming
orchards as possible. I am now in full swing, and I believe I shall have to
paint the same subject ten times over. You know that, in my work, I like
variety; my passion for painting orchards will not last for ever. After them it
will probably be the turn of the arenas. I also have a tremendous amount of
drawing to do; for I should like to make drawings after the manner of
Japanese crape prints.[33] For I must strike the iron while it is hot, and after
the orchards I shall be completely exhausted, for the sizes of the canvases
are, 32 in. by 24½ in., 36 in. by 27½ in., and 29 in. by 22½ in.[34] We
should not have too many with twice the number; for I have an idea that
these might break the ice in Holland.
Mauve’s death was a hard blow to me, and you will notice that the pink
peach trees were painted with some agitation.
I must also paint a starry night, with cypresses, or, perhaps, over a field
of ripe corn. We get wonderful nights here. I am possessed by an insatiable
lust for work. I shall be glad to see the result at the end of the year. I trust
that by that time I shall be less tormented by a certain feeling of ill-ease that
is troubling me now. On some days I suffer terribly! but I am not greatly
concerned about it, for it is simply the reaction of the past winter, which
was certainly not normal. My blood renews itself, and that is the most
important thing of all.
My ambition is to make my pictures worth what I spend on them; or
something more, because one must think of past expenses. But we shall
succeed even in this; and even if everything does not turn out all right, work
is at least progressing all the while.
I am constantly meeting the Danish painter; but he is soon going home.
He is an intelligent fellow and his character and manners are impeccable,](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/10948240-250515071803-e9d22444/85/The-Global-Climate-System-Patterns-Processes-And-Teleconnections-Bridgman-76-320.jpg)
The Global Climate System Patterns Processes And Teleconnections Bridgman
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- 7. The Global Climate System Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Over the last 20 years, developments in climatology have provided an amazing array of explanations for the pattern of world climates. This textbook examines the Earth’s climate systems in light of this incredible growth in data availability, data retrieval systems, and satellite and computer applications. It considers regional climate anomalies, developments in teleconnections, unusual sequences of recent climate change, and human impacts on the climate system. The physical climate forms the main part of the book, but social and economic aspects of the global climate system are also considered. This textbook has been derived from the authors’ extensive experience of teaching climatology and atmospheric science. Each chapter contains an essay by a specialist in the field to enhance the understanding of selected topics. An extensive bibliography and lists of websites are included for further study. This textbook will be invaluable to advanced students of climatology and atmospheric science. HOW ARD A. BRIDGMAN is currently a Conjoint Professor at the University of Newcastle in Australia, having retired at the Associate Professor level in February 2005. He has held visiting scientist positions at Indiana University, USA, the University of East Anglia, UK, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA, the Atmospheric Environment Service in Canada, and the Illinois State Water Survey, USA. He has written, edited or contributed to eleven other books on subjects including air pollution, applied climatology and climates of the Southern Hemisphere. He has published many articles in the field’s leading journals. JO HN E. OLIVER was educated in England and the United States, obtaining his Ph.D. at Columbia University, where he served on the faculty, before joining Indiana State University. Prior to his appointment as Emeritus Professor, he was Professor of Physical Geography and Director of the University Climate Laboratory at Indiana State. He also served as Department Chairperson and Associate Dean of Arts and Sciences. He has published twelve books and his work on applied climatology and historic climates has appeared in a wide range of journals. He was founding editor, with Antony Orme, of the journal Physical Geography, for which until recently he served as editor for climatology. In 1998 he was awarded the first Lifetime Achievement Award from the Climatology Group of the Association of American Geographers.
- 9. The Global Climate System Patterns, Processes, and Teleconnections Howard A. Bridgman School of Environmental and Life Sciences University of Newcastle, Australia John E. Oliver Department of Geography, Geology and Anthropology Indiana State University, USA With contributions from Michael Glantz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Randall Cerveny, Arizona State University, USA Robert Allan, Hadley Centre, UK Paul Mausel, Indiana State University, USA Dengsheng Lu, Indiana University, USA Nelson Dias, Universidade de Taubaté, Brazil Brian Giles, University of Birmingham, UK Gerd Wendler, University of Alaska, USA Gregory Zielinski, University of Maine, USA Sue Grimmond, Indiana University, USA and King’s College London, UK Stanley Changnon, University of Illinois, USA William Lau, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA
- 10. cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 2ru, UK First published in print format isbn-13 978-0-521-82642-6 isbn-13 978-0-511-23938-0 © H. Bridgman and J. Oliver 2006 2006 Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521826426 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. isbn-10 0-511-23938-6 isbn-10 0-521-82642-x isbn-10 0-521-53380-5 Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org hardback eBook (Adobe Reader) eBook (Adobe Reader) hardback
- 11. Contents List of contributors page viii Preface xi List of abbreviations xiv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The climate system 1 1.2 Patterns, processes, and teleconnections 8 1.3 ESSAY: Problem climates or problem societies? (Glantz) 10 1.4 Examples of general climate websites 23 1.5 References 24 2 Oscillations and teleconnections 25 2.1 History and definitions 25 2.2 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 29 2.3 The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 30 2.4 The Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) 31 2.5 The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) 33 2.6 The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) 34 2.7 The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) 36 2.8 ESSAY: ENSO and related teleconnections (Allan) 38 2.9 Examples of oscillations and teleconnections websites 54 2.10 References 54 3 Tropical climates 59 3.1 Introduction 59 3.2 The climate controls 59 3.3 ESSAY: The Quasi-biennial Oscillation and tropical climate variations (Cerveny) 67 3.4 Human activities and problem climates in the tropics 74 3.5 ESSAY: Remote sensing of Amazonia deforestation and vegetation regrowth: inputs to climate change research (Mausel, Lu and Dias) 79 3.6 Chapter summary 90 v
- 12. 3.7 Examples of tropical climates websites 91 3.8 References 91 4 Middle-latitude climates 96 4.1 Introduction 96 4.2 Data availability 96 4.3 ESSAY: Reanalysis (Giles) 97 4.4 Using reanalysis 104 4.5 The Northern Hemisphere 106 4.6 Mid-latitude circulation and teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere 114 4.7 Chapter summary 125 4.8 Examples of mid-latitude websites 126 4.9 References 126 5 Climate of the polar realms 131 5.1 Introduction (Wendler) 131 5.2 ESSAY: Antarctic climate (Wendler) 132 5.3 Upper air circulation and wind 142 5.4 Surface pressure variations 143 5.5 Cyclogenesis and cyclonicity 146 5.6 Antarctic climate and ENSO 148 5.7 Polar night jet and stratospheric ozone depletion 149 5.8 ESSAY: Arctic Climate (Wendler) 151 5.9 Arctic general circulation 161 5.10 Surface pressure and wind 161 5.11 Extra-tropical cyclones 163 5.12 Polar night jet and stratospheric ozone depeletion 165 5.13 Concerns about future warming 166 5.14 Chapter summary 166 5.15 Examples of polar websites 167 5.16 References 168 6 Post-glacial climatic change and variability 171 6.1 Introduction 171 6.2 Determining past climate through the use of proxies 172 6.3 ESSAY: Post-glacial climates in the Northern Hemisphere (Zielinski) 175 6.4 Southern Hemisphere climate reconstructions 194 6.5 Chapter summary 201 6.6 Examples of paleoclimate websites 202 6.7 References 202 vi Contents
- 13. 7 Urban impacts on climate 205 7.1 Introduction 205 7.2 Highlights in the history of urban climate research 207 7.3 ESSAY: Variability of urban climates (Grimmond) 210 7.4 Wind, cloud cover, and pressure 223 7.5 Urban canyons 227 7.6 Moisture and precipitation 230 7.7 Effects of air pollution 232 7.8 Remote sensing and the UHI 234 7.9 Mitigation of the UHI 238 7.10 Chapter summary 239 7.11 Examples of urban websites 239 7.12 References 240 8 Human response to climate change 244 8.1 Introduction 244 8.2 The Viking settlements in Greenland, AD 800–1450 245 8.3 Climate change and adaptation in Europe during the Little Ice Age 250 8.4 ESSAY: Economic impacts of climate conditions in the United States (Changnon) 260 8.5 Conclusions 275 8.6 Examples of climate and history websites 277 8.7 References 277 9 ESSAY: Model interpretation of climate signals: an application to Asian monsoon climate (Lau) 281 9.1 Introduction 281 9.2 A climate model primer 282 9.3 Modeling the Asian monsoon climate 292 9.4 Future challenges 303 9.5 Acknowledgement 305 9.6 Examples of climate modeling websites 305 9.7 References 305 10 Conclusions and the future of climate research 309 10.1 Introduction 309 10.2 Understanding the global climate system 311 10.3 The importance of communication 318 10.4 References 320 Other books on climatology and the climate system 321 Index 325 The color plates are situated between pages 170 and 171 Contents vii
- 14. Contributors Michael Glantz is a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and is an expert on climate change impacts on society and lifestyle. Robert Allan is a senior scientist at the Hadley Centre, Met Office, United Kingdom, and is an expert on E1 Niño–Southern Oscillation, its telecon- nections and its climate impacts. Randall Cerveny is a Professor in Geography at Arizona State University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, and is an expert on tropical circulations and climates of South America. Paul Mausel is a Professor at Indiana State University, Terre Haute, Indiana, USA, and is an expert on remote sensing, and interpretations of biospheric and atmospheric changes from satellite data. Dengsheng Lu is a research scientist in the Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change at Indiana University and is an expert in remote sensing. Nelson Dias is a research associate at the Universidade de Taubaté in Brazil, and researches changes to the Amazon rainforest using remote sensing techniques. Brian Giles is a retired Professor from the School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Sciences at the University of Birmingham, UK, and is an expert on synoptic meteorology and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. He currently lives in Takapuna, New Zealand. Gerd Wendler is a Professor and Director of the Arctic Research Institute at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA, and is an expert on synoptic climatology of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Gregory Zielinski is a scientist at the Institute for Quaternary and Climate Studies at the University of Maine, Orono, Maine, USA, and is an expert on Holocene paleoclimates and proxy interpretations of climate change. viii
- 15. Sue Grimmond is a Professor in the Environmental Monitoring and Modelling Group, Department of Geography, King’s College London, UK, and is an expert on urban climate and urban impacts on energy and water balances. Stanley Changnon is retired as Director of the Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, USA, and is currently Emeritus Professor of Geography at the University of Illinois. His expertise is in water and climate change, and the impacts of weather hazards on economics and society. William Lau is Head of the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, and is an expert on climate modeling. List of contributors ix
- 17. Preface As graduate students in the 1960s and 1970s, the authors became attracted to the exciting world of the atmosphere and climatology through both lectures and textbooks. The approach to climatology at that time is best described as ‘‘global descriptive,’’ where we were introduced to climate patterns and regimes across the Earth, and what then were known as the explanations behind them. One of the best books for studying advanced climatology was The Earth’s Problem Climates (University of Wisconsin Press, 1966), by Glenn Trewartha, a well- known and respected climatologist from the University of Wisconsin. In this book we explored, both geographically and systematically, the climate patterns and anomalies across the continents. We were introduced to the nature of the Atacama Desert, the climatic anomalies of northeast Brazil, the temperature extremes of central Siberia, and the monsoon variations in India and China, among other aspects. Trewartha’s book was reprinted in 1981, but sadly the new version did not properly include new research and findings on global climate patterns. For example, despite recognition by the mid 1970s of its essential importance to global climatic variability, there was no discussion of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation! During the decades of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, there has been an explosion in climatic research and a new breadth and depth of understanding about clima- tology and the atmosphere. There have also been a number of excellent books published in the area of climatology. Almost all of these can be grouped into one of two categories: (a) introductory to intermediate textbooks, to support teaching, which basically assume little or no background knowledge in climate or atmo- spheric studies; and (b) detailed books on either a climatic topic or a geographical area, based on extensive summaries of research publications. Examples of the latter include Elsevier’s World Survey of Climatology series; El Ni~ no: Historical and Palaeoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (editors Diaz and Markgraf ); Antarctic Meteorology and Climatology (King and Turner); El Ni~ no Southern Oscillation and Climate Variability (Allen, Lindesay, and Parker); and Climates of the Southern Continents (editors Hobbs, Lindesay, and Bridgman). There is currently no book that provides a synthesis and overview of this information, filling the gap left by The Earth’s Problem Climates. It is our purpose in The Global Climate System to fill this gap, providing a book that can be used as background to climate research, as well as a text for xi
- 18. advanced climatology studies at senior undergraduate and graduate levels. We have, combined, over 50 years teaching experience in climate, atmospheric sciences and weather, and written or co-authored 12 books on climate, climatol- ogy, and the atmosphere. Global climates mostly follow a semi-predictable pattern based upon the receipts of energy and moisture distribution, with modifications based upon the non-homogeneity of the Earth’s surface. But within these arrangements of climate are areas that are atypical of the expected pattern. In the preface to the second edition of The Earth’s Problem Climates, Glenn Trewartha wrote, ‘‘In the nearly two decades that have elapsed since the initial publication of this book, new information as well as new climatic data have become available concerning some of the earth’s unusual climates.’’ As noted, in the more than two decades since Trewartha wrote these words there has been an incredible growth in information, information technology, data availability, and rapid data retrieval systems. Satellite and computer applications have led to a modern climatology whose methods were not available when Trewartha penned his first edition. Given such developments, it is appropriate that a timely reexamina- tion of the Earth’s climate system should be undertaken. Some examples include: 1. Regional climates that cannot be well explained in the context of their surrounding climates. Such anomalies are dealt with by considering continental areas within the division of tropical, middle-latitude and polar climates. 2. The recent developments in teleconnections open an array of climatic observations that are not readily explained. Thus, new understandings of climate interactions, such as those arising for example from possible impacts of ENSO events, are explored. 3. Intense inquiry into processes and nature of climate change has opened new vistas for its study. However, within the sequence of change there are times and events that do not appear to follow an expected pattern. 4. Both the human inputs into climate and the impacts of climate upon humans provide an extensive area of study. In the urban environment, massive interruptions of the natural systems provide an arena in which many seemingly anomalous conditions occur. At the same time, problem climates also influence the social and economic well-being of many people. We cannot cover the full details of the entire climate system in this book. The range of knowledge about the climate system is increasing too rapidly. Instead, we explore a range of aspects and topics, to show current understanding, but also to encourage interest and further research, from both the scientist and the student. To help achieve this aim, we have enlisted the input of respected scholars who contribute essays dealing with their areas of expertise. These essays are merged into each chapter in the hope that the text is a continuum of information. Each author was given some very general instructions about the aim of the book, the expected size of the essay, and the number of supporting xii Preface
- 19. figures and tables. Further specifics were intentionally left out, to allow the authors freedom to develop their essays in their own style. Initially we had hoped to have essayists from a range of different geographical locations around the world. The final list, nine from the USA, two from the UK, and one from Brazil, does not quite meet that aim, but we are very pleased with the outcome. The essays are shaded, to distinguish them from the material written by us. We would like to thank the University of Newcastle and Indiana State University for their support, especially for study leave trips for both authors. We thank our support cartographers, Olivier Rey-Lescure at Newcastle and Lu Tao at Indiana State. Last, but not least, we thank our wives, who had a wonderful time socializing in the second half of 2004, allowing us to work uninterrupted on the manuscript. Preface xiii
- 20. Abbreviations AAO Antarctic Oscillation ABRACOS Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study ACSYS Arctic Climate System Study ACW Antarctic Circumpolar Wave AGB Above Ground Biomass AGCM Atmospheric General Circulation Model ALPEX Alpine Experiment of 1982 AM Asian Monsoon AMIP Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (NCEP/DOE) AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AO Arctic Oscillation AUHI Atmospheric Urban Heat Island AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (satellite) AWS Automatic Weather Station BUFR Binary Universal Format Representation of the WMO CACGP Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution CCN Cloud Condensation Nuclei CCSP Climate Change Science Program CET Central England Temperature Series CliC Climate and Cryosphere CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability CMAP CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project COADS Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set CPC Climate Prediction Center CPT Circumpolar Trough CPV Circumpolar Vortex CRU Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia DOE Department of Energy ECA European Climate Assessment xiv
- 21. ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation EOF Empirical Orthogonal Function FGGE First GARP Global Experiment GAIM Global Analysis, Integration, and Modelling Program GARP Global Atmospheric Research Program GATE GARP Global Atlantic Experiment GCM General Circulation Model Global Climate Model GCTE Global Chemistry Tropospheric Experiment GDP Gross Domestic Product GEOS Goddard Earth Observing System GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GIS Geographic Information System(s) GISP2 Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 GNP Gross National Product GRIB Grided Binary representation (WMO) GRIP Greenland Ice Core Project GURME Global Urban Research Meteorology and Environmental Project HadCRUT Climatic Research Unit’s land surface air temperatures HadSST Hadley Centre monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperatures HRC Highly Reflective Clouds H/W Height to Width ratio IAMAS International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science ICSU International Council for Science IGAC International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Program IGBP International Geosphere/Biosphere Program IGY International Geophysical Year IHDP International Hydrological Development Program ILEAPS Integrated Land Ecosystem–Atmospheric Processes Study INPE Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (National Institute for Space Research, the Brazilian government) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC DDC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre IPO Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation List of abbreviations xv
- 22. IRD Ice-Rafted Debris ISL Inertial Sub-Layer (urban) ITC or ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone IUGG International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics JMA Japanese Meteorological Agency JRA-25 Japanese Re-Analysis 25 years LBA Large-scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia LF ENSO Low-Frequency ENSO, 2.5 to 7 years LFV Local Fractional Variance LIA Little Ice Age LULC Land Use/Land Cover MAP Merged Analysis of Precipitation MC Maritime Continent METROMEX METROpolitan Meteorological EXperiment MIP Model Intercomparison Projects MJO Madden–Julian Oscillation MMIP Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project MSLP Mean Sea Level Pressure MTM-SVD Multi-Taper Method Singular Value Decomposition MWP Medieval Warm Period NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NASA/DAO National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Data Assimilation Office of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis or Reanalysis 2 NCEP/NCAR National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP/NCAR-40 Reanalysis project 1957–1996 NEE Net Ecosystem Exchange (of CO2) NGDC National Geophysical Data Center NH Northern Hemisphere NMC National Meteorological Center, USA NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, USA NPO North Pacific Oscillation NWS National Weather Service, USA OLR Outgoing Longwave Radiation PAGES Past Global Changes PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDV Pacific Decadal Variation xvi List of abbreviations
- 23. PILPS Project of Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes PMIP Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project PNA Pacific North American Oscillation PNJ Polar Night Jet PSCs Polar Stratospheric Clouds QB ENSO Quasi-Biennial ENSO, 2 to 2.5 years QBO Quasi-Biennial Oscillation RSL Roughness Sub-Layer (urban) SAM South Asian Monsoon SAO Semi-Annual Oscillation SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SCORE Scientific Committee on Ocean Research SEAM South East Asian Monsoon SEB Surface Energy Balance SH Southern Hemisphere SMIP Seasonal Model Intercomparison Project SO Southern Oscillation SOI Southern Oscillation Index SOLAS Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Study SPARC Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate SPCZ South Pacific Convergence Zone SS1 Initial secondary succession SS2 Secondary succession forest SS3 Succession to mature forest SST Sea Surface Temperature STHP Subtropical High Pressure SUHI Surface Urban Heat Island SVF Sky View Factor (urban) THC Global Thermohaline Circulation TM Thematic Mapper, Landsat satellite sensor, resolution 30 m TOGA Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere TOMS Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer TOVS/SSU TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder/Stratospheric Sounding Unit TPI Trans-Polar Index (Southern Hemisphere) TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRUCE Tropical Urban Climate Experiment UBL Urban Boundary Layer UCI Urban Cool Island UCL Urban Canopy Layer List of abbreviations xvii
- 24. UHI Urban Heat Island UHIC Urban Heat Island Circulation UME Urban Moisture Excess UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNEP United Nations Environment Programme VOC Volatile Organic Compounds WCRP World Climate Research Programme WETAMC Wet season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (Amazon Basin) WMO World Meteorological Organization See also Table 10.1. xviii List of abbreviations
- 25. Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 The climate system Climate is a function not only of the atmosphere but is rather the response to linkages and couplings between the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the biosphere, and the geosphere. Each of these realms influences any prevailing climate and changes in any one can lead to changes in another. Figure 1.1 provides in schematic form the major couplings between the various components of the climate system. A climate-systems approach avoids the isolation of considering only individual climatic or atmospheric components. This approach recognizes the importance of forcing factors, which create changes on scales from long- term transitional to short-term sudden, and that the climate system is highly non- linear. According to Steffen (2001), a systems approach also recognizes the complex interaction between components, and links between the other great systems of the Earth, and the ways in which humans affect climate through the socioeconomic system. Ignoring such interactions may create inaccuracies and misinterpretations of climate system impacts at different spatial scales. In examining any component of the Earth’s atmosphere, its systems and its couplings, basic knowledge of the energy and mass budgets is critical. Information concerning these is given in most introductory texts (Oliver and Hidore 2002; Barry and Chorley 1998) and they are not reiterated in detail here. Rather, the following provides a brief summary of major concepts. 1.1.1 Energy and mass exchanges Energy Every object above the temperature of absolute zero 273 8C radiates energy to its environment. It radiates energy in the form of electromagnetic waves that travel at the speed of light. Energy transferred in the form of waves has characteristics that depend upon wavelength, amplitude, and frequency. The characteristics of the radiation emitted by an object vary as the fourth power of the absolute temperature (degrees Kelvin). The hotter an object, the greater the flow of energy from it. The Stefan–Boltzmann Law expresses this 1
- 26. relationship by the equation F ¼ T 4 where F is the flux of radiation emitted per square meter, is a constant (5.67 108 W m2 k4 in SI units), and T is an object’s surface temperature in degrees Kelvin. Applying this law, the average temperature at the surface of the Sun is 6000 K. The average temperature of Earth is 288 K. The temperature at the surface of the Sun is more than 20 times as high as that of Earth. Twenty raised to the fourth power is 160 000. Therefore, the Sun emits 160 000 times as much radiation per unit area as the Earth. The Sun emits radiation in a continuous range of electro- magnetic waves ranging from long radio waves with wavelengths of 105 meters down to very short waves such as gamma rays, which are less than 104 micrometers in length. Another law of radiant energy (Wien’s Law) states that the wavelength of maximum intensity of radiation is inversely proportional to the absolute tem- perature. Thus the higher the temperature, the shorter the wavelength at which maximum radiation intensity occurs. This is given by lmax ¼ 2897/T where T ¼ temperature in degrees Kelvin, and wavelength is in micrometers. For the Sun, lmax is 2897/6000 which equals 0.48mm. For the Earth lmax is given by 2897/288, a wavelength of 10 mm. Thus the Sun radiates mostly in the visible portion of the electromagnetic spectrum and the Earth in the infrared (Figure 1.2). There is a thus a fundamental difference between solar and terrestrial radiation and the ways in which each interacts with the atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Utilization of these laws, and knowledge of Earth–Sun relations, enables the computation of the amount of energy arriving, the solar constant, and the nature of solar and terrestrial radiation. These are used to derive budgets of energy exchanges over the Earth’s surface. Box 1.1 provides basic information on this using the customary symbols. ATMOSPHERE Terrestrial radiation Clouds Advection Sea ice Ice sheets OCEAN 4 3 2 1 Evaporation 1 Atmosphere–land coupling 3 Atmosphere–sea ice coupling 4 Atmosphere–ice coupling 2 Atmosphere–biosphere coupling LAND Heat exchange Solar radiation Atmospheric gases and aerosols Figure 1.1 A simplified and schematic representation of the Earth’s climate system. 2 1 Introduction
- 27. The climate at any location is ultimately related to net radiation (Q*) and is a function of a number of interacting variables. First, incoming solar radiation varies with latitude, being greatest at the equator and least at the poles. Hence, climate varies with latitude. Second, energy transformations at the surface are completely different over ice, water, and land, while also varying with topography, land use, and land cover. Climates will thus vary between such surfaces. The variation associated with such surfaces is seen in the heat budget equation. The heat budget explains the relative partitioning between sensible heat and latent heat transfers in a given environment. In a moist environment a large part of available energy is used for evaporation with less available for sensible heat. Figure 1.2 Wavelength characteristics of solar and terrestrial radiation. Note the difference between extraterrestrial solar radiation and that incident at the Earth’s surface indicating atmospheric absorption of both short- wave ultraviolet and infrared radiant energy. Earth emits energy largely in the infrared portion of the spectrum. (After Sellers 1965) 1.1 The climate system 3
- 28. Background Box 1.1 Energy flow representation The exchanges and flows associated with energy inputs into the Earth-atmosphere system is represented by a series of symbolic equations. Use of the equations permits easy calculation once values are input. Shortwave solar radiation (K#) reaching the surface is made up of the vertical radiation (S) and diffuse radiation (D): K # ¼ S þ D Some of the energy is reflected back to space (K) so that net shortwave radiation (K*) is the difference between the two: K* ¼ K # K Net longwave, terrestrial radiation (L*) comprises downward atmospheric radiation (L#) less upward terrestrial radiation (L): L* ¼ L# L The amount of energy available at any surface is thus the sum of K* and L*. This is net all-wave radiation (Q*): Q* ¼ K* þ L* which may also be given as Q* ¼ ðK # K Þ þ ðL# LÞ Q* may be positive or negative. High positive values will occur during high sun periods when K# is at its maximum and atmospheric radiation, L#, exceeds outgoing radiation, L. Negative values require outgoing values to be greater than incoming. This happens, for example, on clear nights when L is larger than other values. On a long-term basis, Q* will vary with latitude and surface type. The heat budget Consider a column of the Earth’s surface extending down to where vertical heat exchange no longer occurs (Figure 1.3). The net rate (G) at which heat in this column changes depends upon the following: Net radiation (K K #) þ (L L #) Latent heat transfer (LE) Sensible heat transfer (H) Horizontal heat transfer (S) 4 1 Introduction
- 29. The opposite is true in dry environments. The ratio of one to another is expressed by the Bowen Ratio; a high value would indicate that large amounts of energy are available for sensible heat, a low value indicates that much available energy is used for latent heat transfer. This partially explains why desert regions, which In symbolic form: G ¼ ðK K #Þ þ ðL L#Þ LE H S Since ðK K #Þ þ ðL L#Þ ¼ Q* then G ¼ Q* LE H S in terms of Q* Q* ¼ G þ LE þ H S The column will not experience a net change in temperature over an annual period; that is, it is neither gaining nor losing heat over that time, so G ¼ 0 and can be dropped from the equation. Q* ¼ LE þ H S This equation will apply to a mobile column, such as the oceans. On land, where subsurface flow of heat is negligible, S will be unimportant. The land heat budget becomes Q* ¼ LE þ H The ratio between LE and H is given as the Bowen Ratio. (After Oliver and Hidore 2002) Figure 1.3 Model of energy transfer in the atmospheric system. 1.1 The climate system 5
- 30. have high Bowen Ratios, can attain much higher temperatures than those in a maritime environment. Water and its changes of state The significance of water as an atmospheric variable is a result of its unique physical properties. Water is the only substance that exists as a gas, liquid, and solid at temperatures found at the Earth’s surface. This special property enables water to cycle over the Earth’s surface. Figure 1.4 illustrates the relative parti- tioning of water in the hydrologic cycle. As can be seen, a large proportion of the exchanges occur over the world oceans. While changing from one form to another, water in its various forms acts as an important vehicle for the transfer of energy in the atmosphere. The chemical symbol of water, H2O, is probably the best known of all chemical symbols. Water in all of its states has the same atomic content, the only difference is the arrangement of the molecules. At low temperatures the bonds binding the water molecules are firm and pack tightly in a fixed geometric pattern in the solid phase. As temperature increases, the available energy causes bonds to form, break, and form again. This permits flow to occur and represents the liquid phase of water. At higher temperatures and with more energy, the bonding between the water molecules breaks down and the molecules move in a disorganized manner. This is the gas phase. If the temperature decreases, the molecules will revert to a less energetic phase and reverse the processes. Gas will change to liquid and liquid to solid. The processes of melting, evaporation, and sublimation from solid to liquid to gas phase result in absorbed energy. This added energy causes the molecules to change their bonding pattern. The amount of energy incorporated is large for the changes to the water vapor stage, and much lower for the change from ice to water. The energy absorbed is latent energy and goes back to the environment when the phase changes reverse. When water vapor changes to liquid, it releases the 100 units = mean annual global precipitation = 85.7 cm (33.8 in) Oceans Precipitation to oceans Most water exchange occurs over oceans Evaporation from oceans Precipitation to continents Evaporation from continents (23–16)=7 (84–77)=7 Runoff to oceans Advection to continents Continents 77 77 84 84 7 7 23 23 16 16 Figure 1.4 Estimated amounts of water involved in the global hydrologic cycle. 6 1 Introduction
- 31. energy originally absorbed and retained as latent heat. The same is true when water freezes and water vapor sublimates to ice. The significance of the release of latent heat shows in many ways. For example, it plays a critical role in the redistribution of heat energy over the Earth’s surface. Because of the high evaporation in low latitudes, air transported to higher latitudes carries latent heat with it. The vapor in this air condenses and releases energy to warm the atmosphere in higher latitudes. Air in motion Newton’s first law of motion deals with inertia. It states that a body will change its velocity of motion only if acted upon by an unbalanced force. In effect, if something is in motion, it will keep going until a force modifies its motion. On Earth, a parcel of air seldom moves continuously and in a straight line. This is because, as Newton’s second law states, the acceleration of any body, in this case the parcel of air, is directly proportional to the magnitude of the net forces acting upon it and inversely proportional to its mass. Note that these laws concern acceleration, which is change of velocity with time. By identifying the forces that act upon a parcel of air, it becomes possible to understandmore fully the processes that lead to the acceleration (or deceleration) of air. If we consider a unit parcel of air (m ¼ 1), then Newton’s second law becomes Acceleration ¼ Sum of forces or Fa ¼ X F The P F is made up of the atmospheric forces so that: Acceleration ¼ Pressure gradient force þ Coriolis force þ Frictional forces þ Rotational forces The understanding and evaluation of each of these forces (or accelerations) provide the key to winds that blow, at both the surface and aloft, over the globe. This is schematically illustrated in Figure 1.5 where the interacting forces are shown to produce friction winds at lower levels of the atmosphere, and geo- strophic winds aloft. LOW WIND WIND PGF PGF PGF FR FR CE CE LOW HIGH HIGH WIND WIND PGF PGF PGF CE CE Intermediate Balanced Initial Intermediate Balanced Initial Figure 1.5 Idealized diagrams showing how interacting forces result in surface friction layer winds (left) and upper air, geostrophic winds (right). PGF, pressure gradient force; FR, friction; CE, coriolis effect. 1.1 The climate system 7
- 32. 1.2 Patterns, processes, and teleconnections Since early times humans must have been aware of their climatic environment. Agriculturalists were faced with the impact of changing seasons, hunters fol- lowed migrating herds and fishermen experienced the vagaries of stormy sea- sons at sea. From such a beginning the study of climate, climatology, has evolved through numerous stages to the rigorous science that it now is. To assess aspects of the current understandings, it is useful to consider the global climate system in terms of its patterns, processes, and teleconnections. 1.2.1 Patterns In reviewing the history of climatology Oliver (1991) notes that the development of any discipline is closely associated with the logical organization, the classifica- tion, of the elements that are studied as part of that discipline. Such is very true of climatology, for the classification process dominated the discipline from the late nineteenth to the middle of the twentieth centuries. The effort and thought that went into studies have provided the modern climatologists with the basic ideas of the various patterns of climate that exist over the Earth’s surface. However, the zonal patterns that were originally postulated have been shown to be a major oversimplification, and have led to many misunderstandings about the nature of climates in various regions of the world. As an example, the climates that are grouped as the ‘‘tropical rainforest climate’’ are no longer perceived as mono- tonous, readily explained climates such as they were once described. It follows that one emphasis of this work, the patterns of climate over the Earth, need be examined in the light of new ideas and findings. To this end, the first chapters of this text use the long-recognized patterns – the tropics, mid-latitudes and polar realms – to identify climate types, but look at them in a way that brings together the dynamic understanding that has been the focus of recent research. But patterns are not just spatial; temporal patterns of climate must also be considered. Climate has varied in the past on many time scales. There have been long periods, more than 50 million years, of relatively undisturbed climates when conditions were warmer than the current climate (Ruddiman 2001). These time spans have been interrupted by shorter periods, a few million years or so, of quite variable climates. For about the past 2 million years climate has been in a disturbed period with ice ages alternating with milder interglacials. In this work, only a short temporal pattern is examined in detail. The last 1000 years or so is selected because of the impact of changing or variable climates upon people and their environments. 1.2.2 Process The second emphasis of this work concerns the processes that produce a climate. A dictionary definition of process states that it is a natural or involuntary course 8 1 Introduction
- 33. of action or a series of changes. In the milieu of climate, process may be regarded as a continuum of energy flow wherein available energy is utilized to maintain the climate system. The resulting global and local energy and mass budgets eventually provide the key to ongoing processes. Background Box 1.1 provides an example of the standard symbols used to depict energy flows in the environ- ment and the relationship to the heat budget. Changes in energy flows then lead to changes in the nature of a climate and its resulting impact upon the human environment. Such is considered in a number of ways in this work. As already noted, the human response to changes over the last 1000 years is considered a temporal pattern. It also represents a change in the processes resulting in that climate. Another area where change is seen is in the urban environment. The buildings that comprise a town or city create conditions that result in a totally modified energy budget. The construction of an environment of cement and macadam results in changing moisture flows and patterns (Bonan 2002 and Chapter 7). Urban climatology has become a major area of specialization. One result of the intensive study of process is the development of the concept that any climate process that occurs at a given location does not vary or change independently of other, often far distant, processes. This has led to an area of research that deals collectively with teleconnections. 1.2.3 Teleconnections Teleconnection is a term used to describe the tendency for atmospheric circula- tion patterns to be related, either directly or indirectly, over large and spatially non-contiguous areas. The AMS Glossary of Weather and Climate (Geer 1996) defined it as a linkage between weather changes occurring in widely separated regions of the globe. Both definitions emphasize a relationship of distant pro- cesses. However, the word ‘‘teleconnection’’ was not used in a climate context until it appeared in the mid 1930s (Ångström 1935), and even until the 1980s was not a commonly used term in the climatic literature. As stressed throughout this book, teleconnections are often associated with atmospheric oscillations. Any phenomenon that tends to vary above or below a mean value in some sort of periodic way is properly designated as an oscillation. If the oscillation has a recognizable periodicity, then it may be called a cycle, but few atmospheric oscillations are considered true cycles. This is illustrated by the early problems in predicting the best-publicized oscillation, the Southern Oscillation and El Niño (Chapter 2). Were this totally predictable then many of its far-reaching impacts could be forecast. 1.2.4 People and climate The most important practical reason to understand the climate system is the link with people, their activities, and their decision making. The relationships between 1.2 Patterns, processes, and teleconnections 9
- 34. people and climate may be approached in many ways, often under the heading of Applied Climatology. Art, architecture, comfort, health, religion, and warfare are but a few of the topics considered (Oliver 1991). Of particular interest in this work is the role of people in what may be termed ‘‘problem climates’’. The best known treatment of this topic is to be found in Trewartha’s book The Earth’s Problem Climates (1966). This work explored anomalies across the globe but, obviously, lacked explanations based upon the information that is available today. Nonetheless, the very title begs the question of what is a problem climate? This is thoughtfully considered in the following essay by Michael Glantz. Given the growth of world population and the immense impact upon the ecological systems of the Earth, the study of some problem climates faces a challenge. Is a recognized problem, such as a long-term drought, the result of natural climatic variation or is it the result of human activity. 1.3 ESSAY: Problem climates or problem societies? Michael Glantz, National Center for Atmospheric Research It cannot be denied that climate issues have made it to the top of the list of things to talk about. Those things to talk about include climate change to be sure, but also every week there is likely to be a weather or climate extreme occurring somewhere on the globe. At different times of the year we hear about adverse impacts of climate on agriculture, e.g. droughts in the out-of- phase growing seasons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In addition to local, regional, and global concerns about specific climate and weather extremes in their own right, there is a deepening concern world- wide on the part of the public, political figures, and scientific researchers about the adverse effects of a variable and changing climate on human activities and the resources on which they depend: food production and security, water resources, energy production, public health and safety, early warning, economy and environment. Each of these concerns also raises serious ethical and equity concerns. The idea for this essay (and its title) is the result of three merging climate- related concerns: (1) an apparent overemphasis on blaming climate for many of society’s woes such as food and water shortages and surpluses, and public health and safety problems; (2) an apparent overemphasis on the speculation about global warming and its impacts on societies (usually adverse and way out into the future); and (3) an apparent underemphasis on society’s ability to influence the behavior of the atmosphere on all time and geographic scales. As a result of this underemphasis, societies are not forceful or determined enough to pursue changes in societal behavior in an attempt to minimize human influences on the atmosphere and therefore on local to global climate. 10 1 Introduction
- 35. 1.3.1 Introduction to the notion of problem climates Climate encompasses variability from season to season and from year to year, fluctuations are on the order of decades, change is on the order of centuries, and extreme meteorological events are extreme weather events or climate anomalies. Each of these forms of climate is appearing at the top of govern- mental lists of concerns about global environmental, demographic, and tech- nological change. Problem is defined as a question raised for inquiry, consideration or solution; an intricate unsettled question; a source of perplexity, distress, or vexation (in this sense, problematic); synonym – a mystery. In a recent report on climate change in the United States (NRC 2002), a graphic was used to depict the climate system. The graphic included the ocean, the atmosphere, ice, cloud systems, incoming solar radiation, and outgoing longwave radiation. Clearly, this has been the traditional view of the climate system. These elements interacted in a variety of ways from local to global levels producing regional to global climate regimes. Today though, this traditional view is no longer correct. Human activities are now affecting the environment (land, ocean, atmosphere) in ways that affect the climate. Headlines on climate these days often focus on global warming-related issues: greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon dioxide), sea level rise, tropical deforestation, and so forth. Humans have become a forcing factor with respect to climate. What that means is that climate science has the obligation to improve our understanding of the climate system and to under- stand the contribution to the climate of each of its components (snow and ice, vegetation and forecasts, clouds systems, the oceans, and also society). While meteorologists and climatologists are primarily concerned with the science of atmospheric processes, individuals as well as policy makers tend to be more concerned about the interactions between climate and society in general, and more specifically between climate extremes and human activ- ities. Societies have tended to look at climate in at least one of three ways. Climate is seen as a hazard, as a constraint, and as a resource. In each society climate is a mix of these three, but the proportions among them can vary from one country to the next. Societies see climate as a hazard; its anomalies can lead to death, destruction, and misery. Governments at least in theory have the responsibility to protect their citizenry from climate and climate-related disasters. Climate as a constraint refers to the limitations that the physical climate places on human activities specifically and on economic develop- ment in general. In attempts to overcome climate-related constraints, socie- ties have resorted to various technologies to reduce those limits: heating, 1.3 Essay: Problem climates or problem societies? 11
- 36. refrigeration, transportation, irrigation, genetic manipulation of agricultural products, aquaculture, containment of rivers, etc. Climate as a resource is taken for granted. Countries with climates that have been favorable to agriculture and animal husbandry often take their good climate conditions as normal. But climate information is also a resource. Forecasts are a resource. International consultants are a resource, and so forth. Governments usually leave it to the private sector to enhance the value of climate to their specific activities. ‘‘Problem climate’’: its first use About forty years ago (1966) geographer Glenn Trewartha published his book, The Earth’s Problem Climates. Trewartha’s selection of what he considered to be the Earth’s ‘‘problem climates’’ was based on information available before 1960. He described a problem climate as one that did not really conform to what might be expected for a given latitude: ‘‘Were the earth’s surface homo- geneous (either land or water) and lacking terrain irregularities, it may be presumed that atmospheric pressure, winds, temperature, and precipitation would be arranged in zonal or east–west belts’’ (p. 3). He focused on ‘‘regional climatic aberrations,’’ explicitly noting that he was writing for physical scien- tists, not for the general public. ‘‘It is designed to meet the needs of those interested in the professional aspects of climate rather than of laymen. A methodical description of all the earth’s climates is not attempted, for many areas are climatically so normal or usual that they require little comment in a book which professes to emphasize the exceptional’’ (p. 6) [italics added]. Is such a statement still valid, given what we have learned about climate since 1960? Are there really areas on the globe that could be viewed as ‘‘climatically so normal or usual that they require little comment?’’ Are there exceptional ‘‘problem climates?’’ Should we also be asking questions about societies’ role, if any, in the existence of problem climates? 1.3.2 What is normal climate? Maps such as those originally produced in 1914 by Köppen and later modified by Trewartha, among others, depict the wide variety of normal climate types on continents around the globe. Australia provides an example representation of its so-called normal climate regime (Figure 1.6). Such maps, while useful for educational purposes, are highly generalized and do not capture the full range of climate behavior such as its anomalies. Over time, the borders between climate zones will most likely shift, making the value of these maps mainly as snapshots of climate regimes for given periods of time. Nevertheless, they do provide a starting place for discussion of climate regions on a worldwide basis. 12 1 Introduction
- 37. Normal climate is more than just average conditions. It includes extremes as well. There is a general view that Australia in the time of El Niño is under severe drought conditions. The 1997–8 El Niño was the most intense in the twentieth century. The map in Figure 1.7 shows the wide range of weather and climate conditions that can occur on the same continent, Australia, during an El Niño year. This is shown to reinforce the view that while climatological averages are useful for some purposes, by no means do they tell the whole climate story for a given country. Climate can be defined either statistically or perceptually (Tribbia 2002). Statistical definition The International Research Institute for climate prediction defines normal rainfall for use in forecasting, for example, as follows: ‘‘Normal’’ rainfall is defined as the average rainfall for 30 years for the period 1961 to 1990. ‘‘Above Normal’’ corresponds to one-third of the observations of which cumula- tive totals of rainfall were the highest (33%). ‘‘Below Normal’’ corresponds to one-third of the observations of which the cumulative rainfall totals were least (33%). ‘‘Near Normal’’ corresponds to the group of remaining years. (from: iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/sup/May01_Afr/index_eng.html) Officially, normal climate is designated by the UN WMO as the most recent three-decade averages of temperature, rainfall, etc. (1961–90; in May 2001 this normal was replaced by statistics for the 1971–2000 period). Others, however, tend to view normal as based on the statistics of the entire period (i.e. time-series) on record for a given location. Both approaches are Figure 1.6 A climatic classification of Australia illustrates an example of so-called normal climatic regimes. 1.3 Essay: Problem climates or problem societies? 13
- 38. used. However, as Katz (personal communication) noted, ‘‘the entire record is more often relied on when estimating extremes (as opposed to averages)’’. The better the instruments that are used to measure climate characteristics, the more reliable the information collected. The longer the record, the better the analysis is likely to be. Data for many places, however, are not very reliable, because data collection can be and has been disturbed by (a) moving the location of measurement, (b) urban modification of the local climate, (c) disruption of data collection as a result of conflict, or (d) failure of the measuring devices, etc. Nevertheless, the past hundred years or so of data is considered to be relatively robust and reliable for a statistical definition and assessment of normal local to national climates for several countries. Normal climate, however, can also be based on an individual’s perceptions of actual climate conditions. Perceptual definition Most people weigh the climate anomalies that occurred earlier in history less heavily than recent events. They also weigh more heavily the ones they have Figure 1.7 The wide range of weather and climate conditions in Australia during an El Niño year. (Based on information originally from www.bom.gov.au) 14 1 Introduction
- 39. witnessed than the ones they hear or read about. This tendency is reinforced by the local media, when they report for specific geographic locations, for example, that ‘‘this is the worst drought in 8 years’’ or ‘‘the heaviest flooding in 3 years’’ or ‘‘the hottest summer in 5 years.’’ While these may be interesting facts, they are not very useful when it comes to understanding the behavior of the regional climate system. More serious are media reports of extremes that are unusual occurrences on the multi-decade scale. Most likely, people do not recall the societal inconveniences of the inten- sity of the drought in the US northeast in the mid 1960s that prompted President Johnson to create a drought task force to identify ways to mitigate the severity of its impacts, if not to avoid future droughts in the urban centers. Yet, when drought struck New York City in 2001, policy makers, the public, and the media viewed the recent urban drought as an unprecedented event. As another example, people believe that the winters were snowier or that snow- drifts were higher in the past, when they were younger, than today. However, such perceptions of reality need to be compared to the actual climate record. Perceptions about what constitutes normal climate conditions can be manipulated. For example, in the 1800s railroad companies sold land in the US West advertising the land as fertile for agriculture, as they expanded their rail lines westward into arid and semiarid areas. This could be called ‘‘green- washing’’, where a government tried to convince people to settle in new areas where the climate-related conditions might not be conducive to sustained human activities such as agriculture. Burroughs (2002) noted: ‘‘This personalized outlook on climate tends also to view any unpleasant event as being way outside past experience. Fanned in part by media hype, every storm, flood, heat wave or snowstorm is seen as having exceptional characteristics . . . In many instances however, unpleasant weather is nothing more than part of the normal fluctuations that make up climate . . . our memories are often of snowy winters, balmier springs, long hot summers or sunlit autumns. Unfortunately, these recollections have much more to do with how our memories embellish features of long ago and little to do with real climate change.’’ Thus, what people believe to be normal climate in their area may not be normal at all. A sign captures what I think people need to keep in mind when it comes to their regional climate: ‘‘Don’t believe everything you think.’’ Normal climates’ extremes Anomalies denote the departure of an element (rainfall, temperature, etc.) from its long-period average value for the location concerned. For example, if the maximum temperature for June in Melbourne was 18C higher than the long-term average for this month, the anomaly would be þ18C (http:// www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/anomaly.shtml). Anomalies are of concern 1.3 Essay: Problem climates or problem societies? 15
- 40. because their impacts on societies, economies, and environments can be disruptive if not devastating, as the climate histories of most regions have shown. Anomalies are also influenced by regional and local factors as well as sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific and in other oceans. In industrialized societies, meteorological extremes are also very disrup- tive. For example, a major storm system in the eastern half of the USA, called Superstorm93, encompassed 26 states and in a matter of a couple of days, left more than 280 people dead and caused an estimated $2 billion in damage. Its spatial extent affected Cuba as well as eastern Canada. As another example, the 1998 ice storm in Quebec caused relatively few deaths but generated considerable misery and suffering when electric power lines were toppled due to excessive ice accretion, causing loss of electricity for several weeks in the middle of winter. Also, the 1988 drought in the US Midwest, America’s breadbasket, was estimated to have cost $40 billion, the costliest ‘‘natural’’ disaster in US history (see Section 8.4). In developing countries, natural disasters can be very costly in terms of lives lost and in terms of loss of livelihood. Hurricane Mitch (1998) caused the death of more than 10 000 Hondurans; mudslides in Venezuela (1999) resulted in the death of more than 50 000; a tropical cyclone in 1970 was responsible for the deaths of more than 300 000 people in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh); drought-linked famine in Ethiopia in the early 1970s claimed more than one million victims. The list of such climate-system-related epi- sodes is quite lengthy. In addition to the immediate death and destruction, disruption of family and village life and widespread illness can plague the affected societies well into the future. For example, because of the predominant dependence of people in sub-Saharan Africa on rain-fed subsistence agricultural produc- tion, each year for many farm families there is what is called ‘‘a hunger season,’’ a period where they must work the hardest during the pre-harvest time but their nutritional intake is poor. Thus, any disruption of the natural flow of the seasons can lead to a situation in which men are often forced to abandon their villages and families for varying lengths of time in search of food or funds. Some never return home from the urban slums or from refugee camps. Policy makers at various levels of government can rise or fall, depending on whether or how they choose to deal with such extremes, such as droughts or floods. US city mayors have been voted out of office because of poor political responses to forecasts or impacts of blizzards or ice storms (e.g. as happened in Chicago and Denver). There are also examples from Africa of drought- and flood-related political changes of governments (e.g. either by coup, as in West Africa and Ethiopia in the mid 1970s, or by election). 16 1 Introduction
- 41. 1.3.3 What are problem climates? There are at least two ways to look at the term problem climates: from a physical perspective and from an anthropogenic perspective. Climate pro- cesses are physical in that they center on the physical characteristics of the atmosphere. They are anthropocentric because climate processes intersect with human activities and the resources on which those activities depend. Physical perspective The physical climate can be viewed as a problem if the scientific basis for understanding it is highly uncertain. The climate is always changing on time scales that range from months to centuries and beyond. Knowledge about those changes is increasing through research and observations, as tools for researching and monitoring improve. Climate anomalies that might have surprised us decades ago no longer do, because we have now witnessed their occurrence. A good example is the 1982–3 El Niño that was called the El Niño of the century. The belief that such a label generated was that societies were safe from the return of an event of such magnitude for another hundred years. However, the 1997–8 El Niño was so surprisingly intense that scientists labeled it as the real El Niño of the twentieth century. Climate changes, in the form of the atmosphere warming by a few degrees Celsius, generate a different set of ideas about what constitutes a problem climate (IPCC 2001). In a way, climate changes (at present global warming) force researchers and policy makers alike to enter into uncharted waters (i.e. an increased level of scientific uncertainty), because there is no precedent in recorded history for the current level of trace greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide. Scientists expect that with global warming the nature of extreme climate and weather anomalies will change: extremes are likely to change in location, intensity, timing, and duration. Even in locations where people do not believe that they are living under a problem climate regime, that regime could change, and not necessarily for the better. Australian meteorologist Neville Nicholls (2003, personal communica- tion) noted the following: ‘‘The future climate is obviously the most impor- tant ‘problem’ climate, since we can’t be sure how it will change. So we need to adapt as it is changing and that is proving to be very difficult. The recent fires in eastern Australia (2002–3) show how a changing climate is a problem climate. Last year’s drought was much worse than previous droughts with similar low rainfall because it was much hotter than previous droughts (with consequently higher evaporation). This dried out the forests and made the year set for the enormous fires that took place (and the fires were of an immense size). We hadn’t adapted our approach to fires to keep pace with the changing climate that is causing more ferocious fires.’’ 1.3 Essay: Problem climates or problem societies? 17
- 42. The arid and semi-arid West African Sahel has a problem climate. It suffers not only from the extremes (droughts and floods) but, like other arid zones, also suffers when average conditions prevail. It is a characteristic of arid regions that rainfall is skewed toward dryness with a few high rainfall events being balanced out by a larger number of below average conditions. Therefore, average conditions could be harmful. Northeast Brazil is another area with a problem climate. Bangladesh is plagued with floods and droughts; Indonesia with floods, droughts, and fires; Papua New Guinea with drought and frost. In some cases an entire country can be said to have a problem with its climate regime, and in most cases there are smaller areas within a country that have problem climates. Anthropocentric perspective When researchers are asked what the phrase ‘‘problem climates’’ brings to mind, they most often respond by noting that climate is only a problem if it affects people in adverse ways. Several note the statement about a tree falling in the forest: when a tree falls in a forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound? In other words, problem climates are only those climates that cause problems for activities that people and societies want to carry out. As a variation of this view, one can find examples of where there had been no human activities in a given area and, consequently, the climate was not viewed as a problem. Yet, as people move into areas that are marginal for human activities from a climate perspective, the interactions between society and the climate system become problematic: more crop failures, for example, because the soils or rainfall conditions were not suited to the selected crops or land-use practices. This particular process has been referred to as ‘‘drought follows the plow’’ (Glantz 1994). Problem climates, then, are generated not only by changes in rainfall or temperature, but also by changes in certain kinds of human activities. For their part, societies are not just the victims of the climate system but are involved in the various ways in which the climate system and its impacts might be changing. Rich and poor societies alike have increasingly come to realize the extent to which human activities (e.g. industrialization processes and land-use practices) and ecological processes can affect the local and global atmo- spheres as well as be affected by them. In addition, an increasing number of government, individual, and corporate decisions are being made for which a knowledge of climate affairs is required. There is a growing awareness among educators in many disciplines of the need for a better understanding of just how climate variability, change, and extremes can and do affect the environment and the socio-economic and political affairs of people, cultures, and nations. 18 1 Introduction
- 43. For their part, social scientists have become much more engaged in research efforts to distinguish between the impacts of physical processes on various socioeconomic sectors of society and those impacts that have actually resulted from decision-making processes. They are also active in trying to identify as well as develop ways to use climate and climate-related information to address a wide range of local to global societal needs. 1.3.4 Problem societies The phrase ‘‘problem societies’’ refers to climate and climate-related factors that affect the ability of society to interact effectively with the climate system. Accepting the fact that there are many things about the behavior of the atmo- sphere that we do not yet know or understand, it is also important to note that there is a considerable amount of usable information that we do already know about the interactions between human activities and the climate system. Nevertheless, societies knowingly still engage in activities that increase their vulnerability or reduce their resilience in the face of a varying climate system. Human activities can alter the physical characteristics of climate from local to global levels. In addition, societal changes can make them more vulnerable to a variable climate. Policy makers at various levels of government know- ingly make decisions (explicitly or implicitly) about land use in areas that are prone to climate-related hazards, e.g. deforestation, increasing soil erosion, decrease in soil fertility, destruction of mangroves, over-fishing, chemical emissions to the atmosphere, the drying out of inland seas, and so forth. These decisions set societies up for the impacts of varying and extreme climate and weather conditions, and are the underlying causes of many climate-related problems. For example: Tropical deforestation is occurring wherever such forests exist, such as in South America, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Research shows that in the Amazon basin, for example, 50 percent of the rain that falls there is the result of evapotranspiration from the vegetation therein. As productive land becomes scarce, people are forced to inhabit increasingly marginal areas for agricultural production or for livestock rearing. As a result of, for example, moving up hillsides and mountain slopes, the cultivation of the soils leads to an increase in soil erosion and to sediment loading of nearby streams, rivers, and reservoirs. In time the land may have to be abandoned, leaving eroded hillsides exposed to the vagaries of nature. Land use in arid and semiarid areas can be very destructive, if care is not taken for agricultural and livestock rearing activities. As land is cleared of vegetation to grow crops, it is left vulnerable to wind and water erosion. Irrigated lands need to be drained properly to avoid salinization of the soils or waterlogging. 1.3 Essay: Problem climates or problem societies? 19
- 44. In the mid 1970s atmospheric chemists (Rowland and Molina 1974) discovered that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), while inert in the lower atmosphere, break down in the stratosphere in the presence of ultraviolet radiation thereby freeing chlorine atoms that combine and recombine with oxygen by breaking down ozone molecules (see Section 5.7). As a result there is a thinning of the ozone layer that protects the Earth’s surface from lethal amounts of UV radiation. Once emitted, these chemicals have a lifetime in the atmosphere on the order of many decades. There is still an illegal trade in CFCs. The demise of the Aral Sea serves as a good example of environmental degradation that resulted from political decisions. After 1960, the Soviet government expanded cotton cultivation from about 3.5 million ha to 7 or more million ha in its Central Asian Republics. A sharp increase in diversions for irrigation from the region’s two major rivers has reduced the surface area of the sea by more than half, and its volume by more than a third. The sea has broken into two parts, and salinity and pollution have made its water unfit for most living things. The sea continues toward total desiccation as a result of policy makers paying little regard to the fragility of the natural environment. In addition winters have apparently become colder and the summers hotter. Many countries continue to base their economic growth plans on the continued, if not expanded, use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) that are known to produce heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions. Much debate has taken place on how and when to reduce such greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions (i.e. Kyoto Protocol), but the increases in emissions continue. The long-term changes of concern to policy makers as well as scientific researchers have been in temperature, precipitation, winds, relative humidity, and seasonality. Sea level rise and glacial melt are other major climate change indicators of paramount concern, especially to those living in coastal low- lying areas. Today, the debate is whether human-induced changes to physical forcing factors, which influence the behavior on various time scales of elements of the global climate system, can bring about ‘‘deep’’ climate changes that before humans could only occur naturally. Societies have difficulty in coping effectively with today’s climate anoma- lies and their impacts on societies and environments. Reasons include but are not limited to the following: scientific uncertainty, a blind faith in the devel- opment of new mitigating technology, scientific uncertainty about climate phenomena and about their impacts, the 2–4–6 years political cycle in the USA (the attention span of politicians in various issues relates to their length of term in office), and the mysterious reasons why known ways to cope with anomalies are not used. With the advent of satellite imagery in the 1960s we have been able to see from space the extent to which human activities on different sides of domestic 20 1 Introduction
- 45. and international political borders can have different consequences for the environment (Figure 1.8). There are some situations where one can see how differences in decisions about land use have led to differences in land degradation that closely follow political jurisdictions. Atmospheric processes and climate-related impacts do not stop at political borders. Both sides of a border are put in the position of having to cope with their climate-related hazards and using their climate as resources. A good example of a transboundary climate-related impact is the forest fire situation in Indonesia and the resultant regional veil of haze it produces. However, not all societies have the resources to protect their citizens from the hazards or to help their citizens capitalize on the resource potential of their given climates. Hence, people end up living in areas at risk to climate anomalies and climate-related hazards, mostly people who are poor or politically disenfran- chised. Some of the existing natural hazard risks have been increased as a result of government policies; people are allowed if not encouraged to live in flood plains, on coastal chars, in arid areas, in tropical or mangrove forested regions. Some risks have increased because population growth numbers have far outstripped the natural resources needed to support them. Then, the present as well as future populations are at increasingly greater risk to adverse impacts from existing climate conditions, and more so in the face of deep climate change. (a) (b) Figure 1.8 Photographs illustrating the extent of human impacts: (a) dust storm over Texas, USA; (b) The Negev Desert region in the Middle East. 1.3 Essay: Problem climates or problem societies? 21
- 46. 1.3.5 Concluding comments While every climate can be viewed to varying degrees as a problem climate in the natural science sense, the word ‘‘problematic’’ better captures the con- temporary view of what constitutes a problem climate than the one originally defined by Trewartha (1981). The phrases in Table 1.1, selected randomly from different websites provide apt illustrations. Without doubt, in the 40 years since Trewartha first introduced the notion of problem climates, our knowledge of what we know and what we don’t know yet about the climate system has greatly improved. We now realize that all climate regimes, local to global, are problem climates in some respect. Today, it would be appropriate to replace the phrase ‘‘problem climates’’ with ‘‘problematic climates,’’ a phrase that directs the focus on the interconnect- edness between the atmospheric processes that give us our climates and the human activities that can influence or be influenced by them. Because of the lack of complete understanding of the behavior of the climate system, early warnings depend on the type of climate anomaly that merits early warning, and they are of varying reliability. So, climate can be problematic (i.e. worrisome) from a natural science perspective and also be Table 1.1 Selected phrases illustrating ‘‘problematic climates’’ Problematic climate Present climate data from Africa are problematic because of data collection methods (UNEP/GRIDA) Drought and water availability are problematic even without climate change (UNEP/GRIDA) There is a problematic funding of pure versus applied science because funding channels and goals are different (INPECO, Clinical Laboratory Automation) Complexity of the Earth’s dynamic climate system makes long-term prediction problematic Climate has problematic stimuli and beneficial stimuli Problematic climate change Dependence on fossil fuels is a problematic situation If problematic climate change is occurring . . . CO2 warming is not problematic Climate change is problematic for the next generation rather than the current one (CRU) The rate of change from today’s climate to a new one is problematic (CRU) Policies to maintain the GHGs status quo risks are worsening an already problematic problem Detecting changes in observing extreme weather events and attributing them unequivocally to anthropogenic climate change remains problematic (CRU) Setting binding GHG emissions in developing countries is extremely problematic (UNEP) 22 1 Introduction
- 47. problematic (i.e. troublesome) from a societal perspective because its impacts can cause problems (or generate benefits) for human activities and settlements. As noted at the outset, climate can be viewed as a resource to be exploited, a hazard to be avoided and even as a constraint to economic development. There is yet another often overlooked aspect of climate – climate as a scapegoat, meaning that climate anomalies provide decision-makers with handy excuses for socioeconomic or political problems, regardless of whether or not those anomalies really contributed to those adverse impacts. Thus, it is really important to use all methods available to identify those aspects of the impacts of a climate anomaly that can legitimately be linked to climate and those that can be blamed on society. Only then can policy makers take correct and appropriate action to prepare for or adapt to the adverse impacts of climate on society and of society on climate. A failure to correctly identify the linkages between climate processes and human activities leads to policy responses that do not address the climate-related problems at hand. Our problem is not that we have to cope with a variable and changing global climate but with the ways societies have chosen to develop their economies with little regard to the impacts on climate. This brings to mind the Pogo cartoon: ‘‘I have met the enemy and he is us!’’ It is time to start recognizing problem societies as well as problem climates. 1.4 Examples of general climate websites The Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom Met Office (www.metoffice.com/ research/hadleycentre/) is a fine source for European climate information. Descriptions of the various research activities are provided. The Bureau of Meteorology of the Commonwealth of Australia (www.bom. gov.au/) has a varied content that provides satellite information and images and basic physical climatology. The National Center for Environmental Prediction is available through the NOAA website (www.nws.noaa.gov). The site provides comprehensive infor- mation concerning models and forecast systems. The National Climate Data Center (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html) is the basic source of data and climatic information in the United States. The site provides links to many international agencies. The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (www.mpimet.mpg.de/) describes numerical models and their value in studying interacting components of the Earth system. 1.4 Examples of general climate websites 23
- 48. 1.5 References Angström, A., 1935. Teleconnections of climate changes in the present time. Geographiska Analer, 17, 242–258. Barry, R. G. and Chorley, R. J., 1998. Atmosphere, Weather, and Climate, 7th edn. New York: Routledge. Bonan, G., 2002. Ecological Climatology Concepts and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Burroughs, W., 2002. Climate: Into the 21st Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Geer, I. W., 1996. Glossary of Weather and Climate. Boston: American Meteorological Society, Chapter 1. Glantz, M. H., 1994. Drought follows the Plow. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs, et al., eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. NRC (National Research Council) 2002. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Oliver, J. E., 1991. The history, status and future of climatic classification. Physical Geography, 12, 231–251. Oliver, J. E. and Hidore, J. J., 2002. Climatology: An Atmospheric Science. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Rowland, F. S. and Molina, M. J., 1974. Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: chlorine atom-catalyzed destruction of ozone. Nature, 249, 810–812. Ruddiman, W., 2001. Earth’s Climate Past and Future. New York: W.H. Freeman and Co. Sellers, W. D., 1965. Physical Climatology. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Steffen, W., 2001. Toward a new approach to climate impact studies. In L. Bengtsson and C. Hammer, eds., Geosphere–Biosphere Interactions and Climate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 273–279. Trewartha, G., 1981. The Earth’s Problem Climates, 2nd edn. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press (first edition 1966). Tribbia, J., 2002. What constitutes ‘normal’? In M. H. Glantz, ed., La Ni~ na and its Impacts: Facts and Speculation. Tokyo: UN University Press. 24 1 Introduction
- 49. Chapter 2 Oscillations and teleconnections 2.1 History and definitions The concept of atmospheric oscillation began with studies of the Asian mon- soon. Following the great 1877 drought in India, the India Meteorological Department was established under the leadership of H. F. Blanford. His task, in part, was to examine whether any monsoon seasonal prediction could be identified. Concentrating upon solar relations and climate, he could not report success. It was, however, Sir Gilbert Walker who, as Director-General of Observatories in the India Meteorological Department, initiated extensive stu- dies of pressure patterns that eventually led to the identification of atmospheric oscillations. After he retired in 1924, Walker observed a see-saw like oscillation of sea level pressures in various parts of the Pacific Ocean (Walker 1923–4). He labeled this the Southern Oscillation. Further studies in the 1920s and 1930s saw identification of North Atlantic and North Pacific oscillations. Not a great deal of attention was accorded this work, and it was not until many years later that the contribution of Walker was recognized and the Walker circulation named in his honor (Bjerknes 1966). It is interesting to note that the statistical methods used by Walker were sophisticated enough to become the ‘‘Yule– Walker equations’’ that refer to properties satisfied by the autocorrelations of an autoregressive process (Katz 2002). Throughout this text the discussion of regional climates and anomalies will, in part, concern teleconnections. This chapter provides a background to the major oscillations that relate to teleconnections. Of these, ENSO events are by far the best known and, as a result, this topic and its extended influences are given additional emphasis through an essay (Section 2.8). 2.1.1 Oscillations Any phenomenon that tends to vary above or below a mean value in some sort of periodic way is properly designated as an oscillation. Classical oscillation research states that oscillation occurs when a system is disturbed from a position of stable equilibrium. It may be recognized eventually as a predictable cycle, but this term should not be used unless the period has a recognizable regularity. The 25
- 50. term oscillation is sometimes used for the swing from one extreme to the other, that is a half cycle. Fairbridge (1986) noted that a number of types of oscillation are recognized: damped oscillation, one with constantly decreasing amplitude; neutral, persistent or undamped oscillation, maintaining constant amplitude; unstable oscillation, growing in amplitude and then breaking down; stable oscillation, consistent amplitude with little change; forced oscillation, one set up periodically by an external force; free oscillation, a motion established externally but which then receives no further external energy. Atmospheric oscillations can fit any number of these categories. Of singular importance, however, are the planetary atmospheric pressure fields that are considered here. Most of these oscillations are involved with the strength and location of centers of action, the major global highs and lows, and sea surface temperatures. The character of the identified oscillations is mostly derived statistically from long-term pressure observation series. Oscillations have various periodicities. Some, like the Madden–Julian (Section 2.5), are intraseasonal, occurring at periods of less than 1 year. A quasi-biennial (QB) occurs at approximately 2-year intervals while some peri- odicities, such as ENSO, have a quasi-cyclic periodicity ranging from 3 to 5 years. At the same time, and as described in Section 2.8, the ENSO phenomena may also be considered as quasi-biennial with a 2 to 2.5 year frequency together with a low-frequency (LF) interannual component. Thus QB ENSO and LF ENSO signals are identified. Decadal oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Section 2.3), have been linked to the 11-year sunspot cycle, while bidecadal may be linked to the double sunspot, or Hale, cycle. Multidecadal and longer term oscillations have been identified, some of which may be associated with Earth orbit parameters. Table 2.1 outlines some of the oscillations that have been identified and which will be described in this chapter. 2.1.2 Teleconnections Teleconnection is a term used to describe the tendency for atmospheric circula- tion patterns to be related, either directly or indirectly, over large and spatially non-contiguous areas. Glantz (2001) defines them succinctly as linkages between climate anomalies at some distance from each other. It seems that a number of late nineteenth and early twentieth century cli- matologists believed that changes in one location were related to changes at a different location. While the best known of such scholars was Walker, others pointed out, for example, that drought in South Africa seemed to occur at the same time as that in India, suggesting a connection between the hemispheres. However, the word ‘‘teleconnection’’ was not used in a climate context until it appeared in a paper by Ångström (1935). 26 2 Oscillations and teleconnections
- 51. Teleconnections play an integral part in the study of air–sea interactions and global climate processes. They often provide the missing piece in the under- standing of climate patterns, both spatial and temporal, that occur across the world. The identification of connections suggested by teleconnections has become so important that the study forms a subfield of the atmospheric sciences. Table 2.2 provides examples of some teleconnections between two regions. The study of teleconnections is largely based upon statistical analysis and requires reliable data sources. Of particular importance is the use of empirical orthogonal functions, the EOFs, or the principal components. Using grid point pressure values as a matrix, principal components, eigenvalues and eigenvectors are obtained from the analysis. Through the manipulation of these data, a set of component scores is derived and these can be clustered to form a classification used to identify the patterns under investigation. The analysis is, of course, Table 2.1 Major oscillations Southern Oscillation (SO) A strongly anti-correlated pressure anomaly over the Indian and South Pacific Oceans. It has a slightly variable period averaging 2.33 years and is often analyzed as part of an ENSO event. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Reflects pressure variations and the stability of the Icelandic Low and the Azores–Bermuda High pressure cells. The NAO has a marked influence upon the climates of western Europe. North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Along-livedphenomenondefinedbysurfaceoceantemperaturesinthenortheastandtropicalPacificOcean. Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) An eastward progression of tropical rainfall, which produces anomalous rainfall patterns that may be enhanced or suppressed. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) A low-latitude oscillation that is longer than the dominant annual cycle and results in a periodic reversal of winds in the lower stratosphere. Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) An alternating pattern between pressures in the central Pacific Ocean and centers of action over western Canada and the southeastern United States. Arctic Oscillation (AO) An oscillation in which atmospheric pressure, at polar and mid-latitude locations, fluctuates between defined positive and negative phases. Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) An oscillation in values of mid- and high-latitude surface pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere. It is quantified by the Antarctic Oscillation Index. 2.1 History and definitions 27
- 52. completed using appropriate computer programs; for those wishing to further investigate the EOFs, the outline provided by Barry and Carleton (2001) will prove useful. A second method of teleconnection analysis is through the computation of correlation maps. In this, for example, the correlation coefficient between sea level pressures at a selected location is compared to that at all grid points north of 208 N. Many similar examples are found in teleconnection studies (Peixoto and Oort 1992). 2.1.3 Major identified oscillations and teleconnections Ongoing research has identified or suggested a number of oscillations and result- ing teleconnections. It need be noted that a number of patterns that form part of Table 2.2 Examples of teleconnections involving two regions Variable 1 Variable 2 Surface pressure in Indonesia Surface pressure in the eastern Pacific Precipitation over Australia Precipitation over India Ocean temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Upper-level air pressure over the northern Rocky Mountains Ocean temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Rainfall in the southeastern United States Surface temperature in Greenland Surface temperature in northern Europe Ocean temperature in the central tropical Pacific Ocean temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean Low-level east–west airflow over the Indian Ocean Low-level east–west airflow over the tropical Pacific Ocean Ocean temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Strength of upper-level westerly wind flow in the North Pacific Rainfall in northeast Brazil Ocean surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Rainfall in the sub-Saharan area of Africa Surface pressure difference between the Indonesian and tropical east Pacific areas Upper-level pressure in the subtropical regions of the west Atlantic Upper-level pressure in the polar region of the North Atlantic Upper-level pressure in the western subtropical Pacific area Upper-level pressure in the North Pacific area Note: Correlations may be either positive or negative for the variables listed. In all cases, the variables are for monthly or seasonally averaged times and for a broad area in the regions listed. Source: After D. D. Houghton, 1996. Teleconnections, in S. H. Schneider, ed., Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate, New York: Oxford University Press, p. 743. 28 2 Oscillations and teleconnections
- 53. the major features may be identified. These are often seasonal in nature. For example, in the North Atlantic the East Atlantic Pattern exists from September to April, and over Eurasia the Polar/Eurasian Pattern may be discerned from December to February. An analysis of the many identified patterns is available from the Climate Diagnostics Center (www.cdc.noaa/ClimateIndices). 2.2 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) The North Atlantic Oscillation is defined as the difference between sea level pressure at two stations representing the centers of actions that occur over Iceland and the Azores. In calculating the pressure difference between the two pressure systems, data from Stykkisholmur in Iceland have been evaluated using various other stations to represent the more southerly center of action. Rogers (1997) used Ponta Delgarda, while Lisbon, Portugal, has been used by Hurrel (1995) and Gibraltar by Jones et al. (1997). Generally, US analyses (e.g. NCAR) use the Hurrell index while those in Europe (e.g. East Anglia Climate Research Unit) use that by Jones et al. The acquired pressure differences are used to derive an index that identifies the phase of the oscillation. A positive phase is represented by a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure and a deeper than normal Icelandic Low. Accordingly, the negative phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic Low. The NAO Index is defined using the winter season, December through March. In its positive phase, the increased pressure difference between the two centers of action results in frequent strong winter storms tracking in a more northerly path across the North Atlantic Ocean. Conversely, the negative phase sees fewer and weaker storms passing in a more southerly track across the North Atlantic. These two modes have a marked influence on the nature of winter climates in both Western Europe and eastern North America. In Western Europe, a positive NAO Index results in warm, wet winters, for the storm tracks are carried to the north and air from the subtropical highs will prevail. At the same time, the eastern parts of the United States will probably experience mild and possibly wet winters. In contrast, during the negative phase, eastern North America will experience more cold air invasions and so will Western Europe, especially the Mediterranean. Comparisons between the NAO and the Southern Oscillation (SO) suggest that while the SO is driven by sea surface temperature, NAO is an atmospheric phenomenon. Additionally, the NAO is of much longer time scale, with changes in phase often taking decades. It is thus of particular interest for long-term climatological analysis. Figure 2.1 shows values of the NAO from the late 1800s to the late 1900s. The cold European winters of the 1940s and the 1960s, which happened to include one of the coldest decade periods on record, each coincided with negative phases. A high positive NAO Index in the 1980s and early 1990s was in periods 2.2 The North Atlantic Oscillation 29
- 54. of particularly mild winters across Europe. As noted in Section 2.7, the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are intimately linked. An in-depth analysis of the NAO is presented in a special publication of the American Geophysical Union (Hurrell et al. 2003). This work deals not only with the dynamic climatology of the NAO but also provides an account of its ecological and economic consequences. 2.3 The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Zhang et al. (1997) describe the PDO as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. The term was coined by Mantua et al. (1997) in a study investigating the role of sea surface temperature on salmon behavior in the North Pacific Ocean. The index used to assess the PDO is derived from monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies north of 208 N in the Pacific Ocean. Other studies have provided other names including the Pacific Decadal Variation (PDV) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The PDO is actually represented by a shift of SST that occurs on a 20 to 30 year cycle. It is in its warm or positive phase when the northwest SST anomalies are negative, while the SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are positive. The cool or negative phase is the reverse of this, with positive anoma- lies in the NW and negative in the tropical zone. In effect, it represents a change in the location of cool and warm water masses that impart their influence upon the atmosphere in a variety of ways. This, in turn has impacts upon the western parts of the United States. Figure 2.2 shows the occurrence of positive and negative phases of the PDO. A number of studies (Mantua et al. 1997; Minobe 1997) suggest that there have been just two full PDO cycles in the last 100 years. A cool PDO cycle occurred from 1890 to 1924 and from 1947 to 1976, while the warm cycle was in effect from 1925 to 1946 and from 1977 to the late 1990s. It is thought that a possible change to the cool PDO phase began at that time. The impact upon climate at the time of the various phases of PDO has been the topic of a number of studies. Of particular interest are those studies relating the PDO to the climate of the American Southwest. In a series of locally distributed articles (also available at www.srh.weather.gov/abq/feature/PDO_NM.htm), 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Figure 2.1 Values of the NAO from the late 1800s to the late 1900s. The coldest European winters on record (in the 1940s and the 1960s) coincide with negative phases of the NAO. 30 2 Oscillations and teleconnections
- 55. Exploring the Variety of Random Documents with Different Content
- 56. If you will lay aside the best pictures in the batch I have sent you and regard them as in part payment of my debt to you, on the day when I shall have sent you 10,000 francs in pictures, I shall feel much more at ease. The money already spent during former years must return our way, at least in the form of articles of value. It is true that I am still very far from having achieved all that is necessary; but I feel that in the midst of the beautiful scenery here, everything is at hand to make me do good work. It will only be my fault, therefore, if I do not succeed. You once told me that in the space of one month Mauve had painted and sold 6000 francs’ worth of water-colours. So such strokes of luck are possible, and in spite of all my monetary troubles I do not see why they should not happen to me. In the batch I am sending you there are the “Pink’ Orchard,” painted on coarse canvas, the “White’ Orchard” (landscape shape);[31] and the “Bridge.” I am of opinion that these pictures will rise in value later on. And fifty or so pictures like these would compensate us for the small amount of luck we have had hitherto. Take these three pictures for your collection and do not sell them; for later on each one of them will certainly fetch 500 francs. I shall begin to breathe freely only when we have collected fifty such pictures.
- 57. Just a few lines to tell you that I have called upon the gentleman whom the Jew in “Tartarin” called the “Zouge’ de paix.” I have, at least, saved twelve francs, and my landlord was reprimanded for having detained my box despite the fact that I had not refused to pay. It would have been very disastrous for me if the other party had won his case, for he would certainly have told everybody that I could not, or would not, pay, and that he was compelled to detain my box. As it was, however, when we were walking out of the place together, he said to me that the whole thing had happened in a moment of anger, and that he had no intention of offending me. Of course this was precisely what his object had been, for he had probably seen that I had had enough of his place and did not wish under any circumstances to remain a day longer in it. In order to obtain the reduction which was actually due to me I ought probably to have claimed very much more. You can well understand that if I were to allow anybody and everybody to do as they pleased with me, I should soon be robbed of my last farthing.{BB}
- 58. TO E. BERNARD. MY brother wrote to me the other day saying that you intended coming here to have a look at my pictures. From this I gather that you are back, and I am very glad that you should have thought of coming down here to see what I have done. I, for my part, am very keen to see what you have brought back from Pont-Aven. My head is not in a fit state for writing, but I feel so out of it because I have not the least idea what you, Gauguin and the others are doing. I must, however, be patient. I still have about a dozen studies here, which are possibly more to your taste than the others painted in the summer, which my brother must have shown you. Among these studies there is one of an entrance to a quarry: light mauve-coloured rocks on a ruddy soil, such as one very often sees in Japanese drawings. In regard to the drawing and the division of the colours over large surfaces, it bears some relation to your things from Pont-Aven. In these last pictures I show more self-mastery, because while painting I felt much stronger. For instance, there is a canvas about 36 in. by 27½ in. among them of a ploughed field painted in a broken mauve tone, with a background of hills which reach right up to the edge of the frame. Thus it contains nothing save rough ground and rocks with a thistle and dry grasses in one corner; by way of a figure there is a little violet and yellow man. I trust that this will prove to you that I am not yet effete. Heavens! what a miserable little stretch of country this is! It is all very difficult to render, especially if one wishes to bring out its intimate character, and make it not merely approximately right, but the genuine soil of La Provence. To accomplish this one must work hard, for the qualities to be seized are naturally a little abstract. It is a matter, for instance, of giving the sun and the sky their proper strength, and the scorched and melancholy soil its glow and its subtle scent of thyme. The olive trees here are really just what you would like. I have not been lucky with them this year; but I have quite resolved to tackle them again. They are fine silver on orange-coloured or violet-blue ground, beneath the
- 59. broad blue heavens. I have seen olive trees by certain painters, and by myself as well, which do not give this effect at all. This silver grey is pure Corot, and what is still more important, it has not been painted yet; whereas various artists have already been successful with apple-trees and willows. There are also relatively few pictures of vineyards, which are nevertheless so variegated in their beauty. There is quite enough here to keep me busy. By-the-bye, there is something which I am very sorry not to have seen at the exhibition—a series of dwellings from all lands, organized I believe by Garnier. Do you think you could give me an idea, or better still, a coloured sketch of a primitive Egyptian house, for you surely must have seen the exhibition. It must be quite simple: a rectangular block on a sort of terrace; but I would give anything to know the colour. I read in a certain article that it was blue, red, and yellow. Did you notice this? Please do not forget to give me details about it.... I for my part know nothing more delightful in the way of architecture than the peasant’s cottage, with its moss-clad thatched roof and its smoke-blackened hearth. As you see, I am very exacting. In an illustrated work I saw a sketch of some old Mexican houses which also seemed to me very primitive and beautiful. Oh, if one could only know all about those times, and could paint the people that lived in those houses, the result might be pictures as beautiful as Millet’s. After all, everything we really know for certain, at present, is to be found in Millet, not perhaps in the colour, but in the character, in the content—that is to say, in something which is animated by a strong faith....
- 60. I trust you will have another look at my pictures when I send my autumn studies in November; if possible, let me know what you have brought with you from Brittany; for I am anxious to know which of your works you yourself think the most highly of. And then I shall quickly reply. I am at work on a big picture, a quarry. As a matter of fact it is exactly the same theme as that study which I have of yours with the yellow tree. It represents the lower portions of two mighty rocks, with a little spring of water running between them, and in the background there is a third mass of rock which closes in the quarry. Such themes are seductively melancholy, and it is so amusing to paint in thoroughly wild scenes where one has to fix one’s easel deep down in the stones to prevent the wind from blowing everything over. 1890. When Gauguin was at Arles I allowed myself, as you know, to be led into working from imagination, and I painted a woman in black reading a
- 61. novel. At that time I thought that working from imagination was very delightful. But, my dear friend, it is an enchanted land, and suddenly one finds oneself confronted with an insurmountable wall. Maybe after a life spent in manly effort and endeavour, and after a hard struggle shoulder to shoulder with nature, one might venture to try it; but for the present I shall not crack my brains over it, and I have slaved all the year round painting from nature, and thinking neither of impressionism nor anything else. And yet, in spite of it all, I let myself go again, but it only resulted in another failure, and I have had enough of it. For the time being, therefore, I am working at the olive trees, and trying to seize the various effects of the gray sky over the yellow ground, together with the black and green note of the foliage, or of the deep violet ground and foliage against a yellow sky, or again, of the yellow-red ground against a pale green and pink sky. After all, these things interest me more than the abstractions referred to above. If I have not written for so long, it is because I had no wish to enter into any discussion, and scented a danger in all this reflection, inasmuch as I must guard against my illness and keep my head calm. By dint of quiet and steady work, the subjects will come of their own accord. The chief thing is to strengthen one’s self entirely through reality, without any pre-conceived plan and without any watchword hailing from Paris. By-the-bye, I am very dissatisfied with this year’s work; maybe, however, it will prove a sound foundation for what is to come. I have allowed myself to be completely saturated with the air of the hills and of the orchards; time will show what this has done for me. The whole of my ambition is at present concentrated upon a little handful of earth, sprouting corn, an olive garden, a cypress (the latter, by the way, not easy to paint). Here is the description of a picture which now lies before me (a view in the park belonging to the Hospital for Nervous Diseases of which I am now an inmate): to the right, a grey terrace, a piece of wall and a few faded rose- trees, to the left the park ground (English red) the soil of which is scorched by the sun and covered with pine-needles. The edge of the park is planted with tall pine-trees, the trunks and branches of which are English red, and the green of which is all the more vivid for having a touch of black. These trees stand out against the evening sky, the yellow ground of which is streaked with violet stripes. Higher up the yellow shades off into pink and then into green. A low wall, also English red, obstructs the view and is overtowered only at one spot by a little violet and yellow-ochre hill. The
- 62. first tree has a gigantic trunk which has been struck and split by lightning; one side branch alone still projects high up into the air, and lets showers of dark green needles fall down. This gloomy giant—a vanquished hero— which one can regard as a living being, is a strange contrast to the pale smile of a belated rose that is fading away on a rose bush right opposite. Under the pines there are some lovely stone seats and dark box-trees. The sky produces yellow reflections—after a shower—in a pool of water. In a ray of sunshine—the last reflection—the dark yellow ochre is intensified to a glowing orange. Dark figures steal in and out between the tree trunks. You can well imagine that this combination of red ochre, of green bedimmed with grey, and of black lines, defining the forms, may help to call forth that feeling of fright which often seizes many of my fellow-sufferers. And the theme of the great tree struck by lightning, and the sickly smile of that last autumn bloom in green and pink, enhanced this effect. Another picture represents a sunrise over a field of young corn, the converging lines of the furrows rise in the picture as far as a wall and a row of mauve-coloured hills —the field is violet and yellow-green. The glaring white sun is encircled by a large yellow halo. In this picture, I tried, as a contrast to the other, to express repose and perfect peace. I have described these two pictures to you, in order to show you that one can give the impression of fear, without going direct to the historical Gethsemane, and that one can paint a comforting and gentle subject without depicting the chief actors in the Sermon on the Mount. It is unquestionably a good and proper thing to seek inspiration in the Bible, but modern reality has taken such possession of us that even if we try to divorce ourselves from it, in order to revive the old memory of former days, the incidents of our life tear us from such considerations, and our individual experiences again fill us with personal sensations of joy, vexation, suffering, anger or laughter. Heavens! the Bible! Millet was brought up on it entirely in his childhood, and read nothing else; and yet he never, or scarcely ever painted real Biblical subjects. Corot painted Christ in an olive grove with the shepherds’ star, and it was sublime; in his works one feels the spirit of Homer, Virgil, Aeschylus and Sophocles and often of the Gospels; but only discreetly suggested; for modern sensations, which are possible and common to us all, always preponderate. Even if painting be detestable and much too full of hardships nowadays, he who in spite of all chooses this craft must on that very account be a man full of devotion and firmness. Society so often makes our
- 63. life very hard indeed, and that is the cause of our shortcomings and of the imperfection of our work{CC}.... I suffer very much from having absolutely no models; but on the other hand there are some beautiful landscape subjects here. Have you seen a study of mine of a small reaper, a yellow cornfield and a golden sun? Although I did not solve it, I at least attacked the infernal question of yellow in this picture. I speak of the study painted in impasto, which I did direct from nature, not from the copy, which is painted in diagonal brush-strokes and in which the effect is very much weakened. I wanted to paint it in pure cadmium{DD}.
- 64. MORE LETTERS TO HIS BROTHER DURING the journey I thought just as often of you as of the new country through which I was travelling, and I said to myself, that later on you would perhaps come here frequently. It seems to me almost impossible to work in Paris, if one has not got at least a haven of refuge, where one can rest and recover one’s calm and one’s self-reliance. Otherwise one must become quite stupefied. Before I reached Tarascon I saw a beautiful landscape: mighty yellow rocks with remarkably complicated lines and imposing forms; in the narrow coves between them there were a number of small round trees standing in rows, and to judge from their grey-green foliage they must have been lemon trees. Here in Arles the ground is a magnificent red colour and is planted with vineyards. The background of the hills is of a delicate mauve, and many a stretch of the country lying under the snow, together with the white peaks, against a sky as luminous as the snow itself, looked like the winter landscape of the Japanese. For the present I do not find living as inexpensive here as I hoped it would be; but—I have finished three studies—a feat which would probably have been impossible in Paris just now. As for the Impressionists, I should think it right and proper if they were introduced into England if not directly through you, at least through your agent. It seems to me as if my blood were beginning to circulate a little more actively. As this was not the case during the latter part of my time in Paris, I literally could not hold out any longer. I was hoping to be able to paint a beautiful blue, and I do not yet despair of doing so; for in Marseilles one ought surely to be able to obtain the raw materials first hand. I should like to procure the sort of blue that Ziem paints, which is stronger and more decided than that of other painters. The studies I now have are: “An Old Woman of Arles,” “A Snow Landscape,” “A Piece of the Street with a Pork-Butcher’s Shop.” The women here are really beautiful. I say this in all sincerity. On the other
- 65. hand, the Arles Museum is appalling, and it is such a piece of humbug that it would be much more at home in Tarascon. I have also seen a museum of antiquities—the latter were genuine. The draft of your letter to T. is perfect. I trust that in copying it you did not water it down too much. It seems to me that your letter to T. completes the one I wrote; as I was very much annoyed at having sent it in that form. For you must have observed that the idea of inducing T. to take the initiative in introducing the Impressionists into England occurred to me only while writing, so that I was only able to refer to it inadequately in a postscript. Whereas in your letter you discuss the question more in detail. As to the Exhibition of the “Indépendents,” I leave you an absolutely free hand. What do you say to exhibiting the two great landscapes of the Butte Montmartre? I am more or less indifferent about it; I am relying more upon this year’s work. Here it is freezing hard and the ground is continually under snow. I have painted a study of the snow-covered ground with the town in the background. I have also made two small studies of a branch of an almond tree, which, despite the wintry weather, is already blossoming. At last, after all this time, the weather has changed. This morning early it became quite mild. I have thus had the opportunity of making the acquaintance of the Mistral. I have already taken several walks in the neighbourhood; but the wind was so strong on each occasion that it was impossible to paint. The sky was a vivid blue and the great sun shed such powerful rays that it melted almost all the snow away. But the wind was so dry and piercing that it made me have goose-skin all over. However, I saw some beautiful things; the ruin of an abbey on a hill, covered with holly, pines and gray olive trees. I hope to be able to tackle this very shortly.
- 66. For Gauguin—as for many of us, and certainly for ourselves—the future presents many great difficulties. I firmly believe that we shall triumph in the end; but will the artists themselves ever be able to taste of that triumph and enjoy happier days? Has T. written to you? In any case, believe me, your letter will do good. Even if he does not answer, he will at least hear about us, etc. Poor Gauguin is unfortunate; I am afraid that convalescence in his case will last longer than the fortnight he has had to spend in bed. When shall we see a generation of artists with healthy bodies? At times I feel really wild with myself; for, after all, it is no good being either more sick or more sound than the others; the ideal thing would be to have a temperament strong enough to reach the age of eighty and to have healthy blood withal. Still without all this one would be consoled if only one were sure that a more happily constituted generation of artists was going to follow the present one. I see that you have not yet had an answer from T. I do not think it necessary that we should petition him further by another letter. All the same, in the event of your having to discuss any matter of business with him, you might let him feel in a postscript that you are surprised he has not let you know whether or not he has received the letter in question. To refer to my work once more: to-day I painted a picture on a canvas about 25½ in. by 19 in.[32] It represents a drawbridge across which a small cart is being drawn, that stands out distinctly against the blue sky. The river is also blue, the banks are orange, and there is much green vegetation about them. A group of washerwomen are standing on the bank with corsets and caps of many colours. I have also painted another landscape with a small rustic bridge and some more washerwomen, and in addition to this, a grove of plane-trees close to the station. Since I have been here I have painted, in all, twelve studies.
- 67. Do you know, dear brother, I feel just as if I were living in Japan. I will say no more. And this notwithstanding the fact that I have not yet seen anything in its accustomed glory. And even if I feel sad about the expenses being so heavy and the pictures not being any good, I do not despair, for I am certain that my long sojourn in the south will be successful. Here I see and learn many new things, and if I am gentle with my body, it will not play me a bad turn. For many reasons I wish to found a home of refuge here, which in case of complete exhaustion might serve the purpose of putting one or two poor Paris cab-horses like yourself and many of our friends among the Impressionists, out to grass. I painted my last three studies with the help of a view-finder divided into squares{EE}, which, as you know, I often use. I attach some importance to it, because I do not think it unlikely that, sooner or later, more artists will
- 68. make use of it, just as the old German, Italian, and, I believe, the Flemish painters did. The modern way of using it may differ slightly from the old way; but is it not exactly the same with oil-painting? To-day absolutely different effects are aimed at from those which were sought by J. and H. van Eyck, the inventors of technique. This is to show you that I hope always to work independently and for myself alone. I believe in the absolute necessity of a new art of colour and drawing, as also of the whole of artistic life. And if we work with this strong faith, we may hope that it will not prove to be an illusion. But what are we hearing from T.? Nothing at all? If I were you I would write him a few short lines, couched in sober language, in order to express your surprise at not having received an answer from him. I say this more particularly for you; for even if he does not reply to me, he must to you. And you must press him to do so, otherwise you would lose your prestige, and this excellent opportunity ought really to be seized.... What you must particularly avoid is to allow yourself to be treated like a dead man or a pariah. I have received a few lines from G., who complains about the bad weather. He is still unwell, and says that of all the vicissitudes of life, none is more harassing to him than straits for money. And yet he feels that he is to be cursed with this condition for ever. We have had rain and wind every day of late. I have been working at home upon the study of which I made a sketch in my last letter to Bernard. I have tried to make the colours like that of stained glass windows, and the drawing direct and firm. I am just reading Guy de Maupassant’s “Pierre’ et Jean.” It is very fine. Have you read the preface to it, in which he declares the artist free to exaggerate and to create a more beautiful, more simple, and more comforting life in the novel, and explaining what Flaubert wished to express with the words, “talent is a long trial of patience,” and originality an act of will-power and of most intense observation? There is a porch here—that of St. Trophime—which I am beginning to think extremely beautiful. It is, however, so cruel, so monstrous, and so like a terrifying and grotesque spectre of dreamland, that, beautiful monument
- 69. though it is, and great as is its style, it seems to me to be part of another world, to which I am just as pleased not to belong as I am not to have lived in the glorious world of Nero. Shall I admit the truth, and add that the Zouaves, the houses of ill-fame, the charming little girls of Arles who go to their confirmation, the priests in their surplices, in which they look like dangerous antediluvian animals,{FF} and the drinkers of absinthe also seem to me like creatures from another world? All this does not mean that I should feel more at my ease in an artistic world, but simply that I prefer to laugh about it than to feel isolated; because I have the idea that I should be sad if I could not look at everything in a humorous light. In the evenings I have company; for the young Danish painter who is here is a very nice fellow. His pictures are dry, correct, and sober; but in my opinion this is not a serious fault, provided that the artist be young and intelligent. He began by studying medicine; knows Zola’s, Goncourt’s, and Guy de Maupassant’s works, and has enough money to lead a pleasant life. In addition to this he is animated by the earnest desire one day to do better work than he is now doing. I believe he would do well to postpone his return to his Fatherland for a year, or to return here after only a short visit to his home. One of these days we must certainly try to find out how the case stands with this Mr. T. In the interests of our friends he ought really to say something definite. It seems to me that we are all to some extent bound to see that we are not looked upon as dead. It is not our cause alone that is at stake, but the common cause of all Impressionists. Consequently, as he has been appealed to by us, he owes us a reply. You will agree with me that we cannot make any progress before we receive a categorical statement of his intentions. If we consider that a permanent exhibition of impressionist work in London and Marseilles is a desirable thing it is obvious that we shall strain every nerve to bring it about. Now the question is, will T. come in with us or not?... And has he reckoned, as we have done, on a possible depression of the market in pictures which now stand at high prices, a depression which, in my opinion, will very probably occur the moment the prices of impressionist pictures begin to rise. You must perceive that the
- 70. purchasers of expensive pictures will only achieve their own ruin by opposing the triumphal progress of a school which, owing to its energy and perseverance, has for years shown itself worthy of a Millet or a Daubigny, etc. I congratulate you heartily on your letter from T. I think it entirely satisfactory. I am convinced that his silence concerning me was not intended as a slight. Besides, he must have taken it for granted that you would let me read his reply. Moreover, it is much more practical for him to write to you; and as for me, you will see that, provided he does not think too poorly of my work, he will write to me soon enough when he has seen it. I can only repeat that I am more pleased about his simple and kindly letter than I can tell you. You will have noticed that he says he wants to purchase a good Monticelli for his own collection. What do you say to telling him that in our collection we possess a picture of a bunch of flowers which is more artistic and more beautiful than a bouquet by Diaz; that Monticelli often painted a bouquet of flowers, in order to be able to unite the whole scale of his richest and most harmonious colours in one picture, and that one would need to go back to Delacroix to find a similar wealth and play of colours; that—and I am now thinking of the picture which is at the Delarbeyrettes—we know of another bouquet picture, excellent in quality and moderate in price, which we consider, in any case, far more valuable than his figure pictures, which are to be found for sale at every corner, and which belong to the period when Monticelli’s talent was declining. I hope you are sending him G’s lovely seascape. Heavens! how glad I am that T. has answered in this way! I have just painted a group of blossoming apricot trees in a small fresh- green orchard. I really had a good deal of trouble with the picture of the sunset, the figures and the bridge, about which I wrote to Bernard. The bad weather prevented me from finishing the picture on the spot, and when I tried to finish it at home I completely spoilt the study. I immediately started painting the same subject again on another canvas; but the weather had changed completely, and all the tones were grey. Many thanks for all the steps you have taken with the “Indépendents,” but—although it does not matter at all this time—in future please print my name in the catalogue just as I sign it on my pictures, i.e., Vincent, and not van Gogh; and this for the simple reason that in this country no one can
- 71. pronounce our surname. Enclosed I return you T.’s and R.’s letters; perhaps it would be interesting to keep the correspondence of the artists for some future time. It would not be a bad plan to include B.’s small head of the Brittany girl in your next parcel. One ought to show that all Impressionists are good and that their work shows versatility. Would you like me to go to America with you? It would only be natural for the gentlemen to defray my travelling expenses. I could be indifferent to a good deal, but not to all things! And among the things about which I am not indifferent is, above all, your health, which you must recover completely. Now I believe that you ought to seek more refreshment than you do from Nature and from artists. And I would prefer to see you independent of Goupil’s and established on your own account with the Impressionists, rather than that you should adopt this alternative and be constantly travelling with valuable pictures belonging to the gentlemen in question. When our uncle was the partner, he made them pay him very well for many years; but see what it cost him! Yes, yes, your lungs are good, but ... just try a year at looking after yourself properly, and then you will realize the danger of your present life. You now have ten years of life in Paris
- 72. behind you. That is more than enough. To this you will probably reply that Détaille, for instance, has perhaps thirty years of Paris life behind him, and that he is as straight as a die. Very well, do as he has done, if your constitution is anything like his; for in our family we are very tough. All I should like to say may be summed up as follows: If these gentlemen want you to do their dirty work for them, and at such a great distance too, then either demand a high price for the work, or else decline it and devote yourself entirely to the Impressionists. For even if you do less business with their work and turn over less money, you will at least be able to spend more of your time with nature. My health is decidedly improving and my digestion has been getting much better during this last month. I often suffer from unaccountable and involuntary fits of excitement or of apathy; but they pass away when my nerves grow calm again. I constantly reproach myself with the fact that my painting does not bring in as much as it costs, and yet one must work. You must, however, remember that if ever it should become necessary for me to go into business, in order that your lot may be lighter, I should do so without regret. It is strange; on one of my last evenings in Mont-Majour I saw a red sunset; the trunks and needles of pines which were growing on a mass of rock, were vividly illuminated. The rays of the sun bathed the trunks and the needles in a fiery orange-yellow light, while the other pines in the background formed a mass of Prussian blue against a pale blue-green sky. That is surely precisely the same effect as that picture of Claude Monet’s of which you spoke to me. It was simply glorious. The white sand and the layers of white rock beneath the trees were bluish in colour. How glad I should be to paint the panorama of which you have the first drawings. Its expanse is so vast! And it does not get grey in the background, but remains green to the farthermost line. You must understand that I would prefer to drop my art than to think that you were slaving your life out to earn money. It is certainly necessary; but are we so situated that we must go to all these pains to get it? If you realize so well that to prepare for death (a “Christian idea” which in my opinion
- 73. Christ fortunately did not share at all—he who according to the view of such people as considered him crazy, loved men and things on earth not wisely—but too well); if then, I say, you realize so well that to prepare for death is a thing one would prefer to leave severely alone, do you not also see that self-denial, and sacrifice for others is an error too, especially if it is as good as suicide, for in that case one turns one’s friends into murderers. If things have come to such a pass that you have to travel about in this way without being able to take a rest, I really feel as if I no longer had any desire ever to be quiet again. And if you accept these proposals, well and good; but in that case make a stipulation with these Goupils that they should take me back into their employ as soon as they can, and that they should let me join you on these journeys. Men are more important than things, and the more I worry myself about pictures, the colder they leave me. My reason for trying to paint them is that I would fain be reckoned among the artists. I have painted a canvas in the open, in an orchard. The ground was ploughed and mauve in colour, there was a fence of reeds and two pink peach trees against a bright blue and white sky. Perhaps it was the best landscape I have ever painted. The very moment I had brought it home, our sister sent a Dutch essay to me in memory of Mauve (the portrait in it is very good—a fine etching—the text is bad). I do not myself know what moved me so profoundly and made my throat feel tight, but on my picture I wrote: “In memory of Mauve. Vincent and Theo.” And if you also like it, send it as it is to Madame Mauve. I purposely selected the best study I have painted here; who knows what they will say about it at home; but we do not mind that. I had the feeling that something cheerful and delicate would be fitting in memory of Mauve, and not a heavy, serious study. Ne crois pas que les morts soient morts, Tant qu’il y aura des vivants Les morts vivront, les morts vivront. That is how I look upon it—no more sadly than that. Now you must be more careful to keep in touch with T. Whether we are all successful or not, I am beginning to think that within a year or so,
- 74. everything will be all right. It seems to me as if T. and not R. should found the Impressionists’ exhibition in England. You can tell G. quite frankly that my decided opinion is that in his own interests as well as in the interests of the firm, his prices were ludicrous. After all that has happened, R. must either pay handsomely or the artists must shut the door in his face. I have seen enough of that sort of thing already, and after mature consideration that is my opinion. With a price of 300 francs one spoils one’s subsequent sales, and that is a thousand pities. I am in a frenzy of work, for the trees are blossoming, and I wished to paint a Provence orchard in all its unbounded cheerfulness and beauty. To keep a clear head for writing in the midst of it all, is therefore no easy matter. Yesterday, for instance, I wrote some letters which I afterwards tore up. Every day I feel more strongly that we must do something in Holland, and it must be done with the utmost verve and with that French gaiety which is worthy of the cause for which we stand. This is therefore a plan of campaign which will cost us the best pictures which we have produced together, pictures which are certainly worth a few thousand franc notes, or which have cost us, at least, something in money and a great deal in health and life. It would be a clear and sonorous reply to all the whispered suggestions that we are already half dead, and a revenge for your journey last year, and your cold reception, etc. But enough of this. Well, then, suppose we give Jet Mauve the picture in memory of Mauve, a study to Breitner (I happen to have got one which is like the study I exchanged with R. and Pissaro: oranges on a white ground, with a blue background) then a few studies to our sister, and to the Modern Museum at the Hague (as so many memories are connected with it) the two Montmartre landscapes which are at the Independants’ exhibition. There still remains one other unpleasant thing. When T. wrote: “Send me impressionist pictures, but only those which you consider very good” you put one of my pictures among the batch. And now I am in the infernal position of having to convince T. that I am and will remain a real Impressionist of the petit boulevard. What do you say to my giving him a picture for his collection? Just lately I have been thinking things over, and have found something ever so much more
- 75. amusing than my usual kind of study; it is a drawbridge, with a small yellow carriage upon it and a group of washerwomen. In this study the ground is a glaring orange, the grass is very green, and the sky and the water are blue. It must have a frame of royal blue and gold, the inside blue and outside a gilt moulding. The frame might be made of blue plush; but it would be better to paint the wood blue.... I cannot find time to write a quiet letter; my work absorbs me too much. But what I particularly wished to say to you is that I should like to paint a few studies for Holland, so as to have done with it. Quite recently, whilst thinking of Mauve, T., our mother and Will, I got more excited than was good for me, and I was comforted by the thought of painting a few pictures for home. After that I shall think no more about them, and think only of the petit boulevard. I am once again in the midst of work and am still painting blossoming orchards. The air here is decidedly good for me, I only wish you could fill your lungs full of it. One of its effects is very strange; a small glass of cognac makes one drunk here. But as I do not feel the need of such stimulants in these parts to keep my blood circulating, my constitution will not suffer so much. I hope to be able to make real progress this year; for I sorely need to do so. I have a new orchard which is just as good as the pink peach trees. It is an orchard of apricot trees, most delicately pink in colour. At present I am working at some plum-trees with yellow-white blossom and a maze of black branches. I am using an enormous amount of canvas and paint; but I trust that the money will not be wasted. Yesterday I witnessed a bull fight in which five men tormented the animal with banderillas and cockades. One of the toreadors was badly wounded while springing over a barricade. He was a fair man with blue
- 76. eyes and displayed tremendous coolness. It was said that he had had enough for some time. He was dressed in light blue and gold, just like the three figures in the wood, in our picture “Le’ Petit Cavalier,” by Monticelli. The arena is superb when it is crammed full of men and the sun is shining. This month will be hard for you and me; and yet if we can only see our way to doing so, it would be to our advantage to paint as many blossoming orchards as possible. I am now in full swing, and I believe I shall have to paint the same subject ten times over. You know that, in my work, I like variety; my passion for painting orchards will not last for ever. After them it will probably be the turn of the arenas. I also have a tremendous amount of drawing to do; for I should like to make drawings after the manner of Japanese crape prints.[33] For I must strike the iron while it is hot, and after the orchards I shall be completely exhausted, for the sizes of the canvases are, 32 in. by 24½ in., 36 in. by 27½ in., and 29 in. by 22½ in.[34] We should not have too many with twice the number; for I have an idea that these might break the ice in Holland. Mauve’s death was a hard blow to me, and you will notice that the pink peach trees were painted with some agitation. I must also paint a starry night, with cypresses, or, perhaps, over a field of ripe corn. We get wonderful nights here. I am possessed by an insatiable lust for work. I shall be glad to see the result at the end of the year. I trust that by that time I shall be less tormented by a certain feeling of ill-ease that is troubling me now. On some days I suffer terribly! but I am not greatly concerned about it, for it is simply the reaction of the past winter, which was certainly not normal. My blood renews itself, and that is the most important thing of all. My ambition is to make my pictures worth what I spend on them; or something more, because one must think of past expenses. But we shall succeed even in this; and even if everything does not turn out all right, work is at least progressing all the while. I am constantly meeting the Danish painter; but he is soon going home. He is an intelligent fellow and his character and manners are impeccable,
- 77. though his painting is still very weak. You will probably see him when he passes through Paris. You were quite right to visit Bernard. If he is going to do his military service in Algiers—who knows but what I may go to keep him company there. I do believe that what K. says is quite right, I do not pay sufficient attention to values. But later on they will have even more to complain about, and they will say things that are no less true. It is impossible to attach the same importance both to values and to colours. Theodore Rousseau understood the mixing of colours better than any one. But time has blackened his pictures and now they are unrecognizable. One cannot be at the Pole and at the Equator at once. One must choose one’s way; at least this is what I hope to do, and my way will be the road to colour. If you think the picture “In Memory of Mauve” will pass muster, you ought to put it in a plain white frame and include it in the next batch of pictures you send to the Hague. If you should find among the other studies, one which you think would be suitable for T. you might send it too, without dedication, and then you could keep the study on which there is a dedication, and all you would have to do would be to scratch the words out. It is better to send him a picture without any dedication; for then if he should prefer not to have a picture of mine he can appear as if he did not know that we wished to present him with one and quietly send it back. In any case I must offer him something, just to prove that I am interested in the cause, and that I know how to value to the full the fact that he has taken it in hand. But, after all, do everything as chance ordains.... As Mauve and he were very great friends, in the excitement of the moment it seemed to me the most natural thing in the world to paint something for T. at the same time as I painted the picture “In Memory of Mauve.” And that is all I thought about the matter.
- 78. Your Moslem notion that death comes when it must, might be looked into a little more deeply. It seems to me that we have no proof of such a distinct control of destiny by a power above. On the contrary, it strikes me that a reasonable and hygienic mode of life can not only lengthen existence but can also render it both merry and bright, whereas the neglect of hygiene in addition to disturbing the even course of our life may also bring it to a premature end. Have I not with my own eyes witnessed the death of a noble creature, simply because he had no intelligent doctor to attend him? He was so clear and so calm through it all, and kept repeating: “If only I had another doctor!” And he died with a shrug of his shoulders, and an expression on his face which I shall never forget. I have been thinking of Gauguin and have come to the following conclusion: if he cares to come here, it will only cost him his journey and the two beds or two mattresses which we shall be compelled to buy. But, as G. is a seaman, we might perhaps be able to cook our food ourselves, and live together for the same sum as that which it costs me to live alone. You know that I have always thought it exceedingly foolish for painters to live alone; one always loses when one is quite isolated. You cannot manage to send him the wherewithal to live in Brittany, and me all that I need in
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