The Next Distruptive Technology
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The document discusses the impact of autonomous vehicles on urban planning and city development, emphasizing the need for professionals to start preparing for these changes now. It outlines potential economic and societal benefits, such as reduced accidents and changed land use due to decreased parking demand. The authors advocate for a shift in planning practices to accommodate new transportation models and the reimagining of urban spaces.
The Next Distruptive Technology
- 1. THE NEXT DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY HOW AUTONOMOUS CARS WILL FUNDAMENTALLY RESHAPE OUR CITIES, AND WHY IT SHOULD MATTER TO YOU.
- 2. Jason Sudy, AICP Founder, Principal Side Street Planning Justin Robbins, AICP Senior Planner OHM Advisors Rick Stein, AICP Founder, Principal Urban Decision Group
- 4. AS A PLANNING-RELATED PROFESSIONAL: • WHAT SHOULD YOU BE DOING TODAY? • WHAT WILL YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS? • HOW DO WE PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE? • WE MUST BE THINKING ABOUT THIS NOW!
- 6. PRE-1940S SITE DEVELOPMENT - UNITED STATES TYPICAL
- 8. POST-WAR SITE DEVELOPMENT - SUBURBS
- 10. • ROADWAY NETWORKS • NEIGHBORHOOD PLANNING • SITE DESIGN THIS IS OUR CHANCE… TO UNDO OUR PAST MISTAKES.
- 11. HOW WILL THIS IMPACT… EVERYTHING? • Insurance industry • Health insurance – drastically fewer accidents and youth deaths • Need for increased communications technology • Hacking dangers of on-board computers • Overall economy • Lost industries • Land prices re-evaluated when parking demand shrinks • Automotive industry • Public transportation • Commercial drivers • Taxi & Uber • Bus and train • Commercial hauling • Automotive companies – volume of vehicles needed per year? • Automotive workers – volume of vehicles needed per year?
- 12. U.S. Motor Vehicle Crash Information CURRENT DRIVING REALITIES ENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (2013) Total Crashes per year in US 5.5 million % human cause as primary factor 93% Economic Costs of U.S. Crashes $300 billions % of U.S. GDP 2% Total Fatal & Injurious Crashes per Year in U.S 2.22 million Fatal Crashes per year in U.S. 32,367 Source: ENO table - U.S. Crash Motor Vehicle Scope and Selected Human and Environmental Factor Involvement
- 13. Estimates of Annual Impacts from AVs in the United States ESTIMATED AV IMPACTS ENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES (2013) Source: ENO table - Estimates of Annual Economic Benefits from AVs in the United States
- 14. IMPACTS FOR PLANNING • Site Design • Corridor / neighborhood design and planning • Community-wide comprehensive and strategic planning • Land Use • Zoning Codes and guidelines • Public Realm design • Transportation systems • Active transportation impacts – pedestrians and bicyclists
- 16. POTENTIAL ADOPTION MODELS? INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP Likely scenarios / adopters • Exurban and low-density suburban • Older demographic SHARED OWNERSHIP Likely scenarios / adopters • Denser urban environments • Younger demographic • Current ride service users • App-based ride service (think driverless-UBER) • Could be subscription or individual ride pricing model
- 17. NEW WAY TO THINK ABOUT TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS: • You buy mobility, and not machines! • Transportation as a service, rather than an ownership model ADOPTION POTENTIAL APPROACHES Source: Barclays Research Insights on Disruptive Mobility (2015) – Barclays Bank PLC
- 18. WHERE AND HOW FAST
- 19. CUYAHOGA – 1,255,730 FRANKLIN – 1,217,853 HAMILTON – 806,883 SUMMIT – 541,227 MONTGOMERY – 532,757 LUCAS – 434,882 STARK – 376,401 BUTLER – 373,646 15 MOST POPULOUS COUNTIES IN OHIO LORAIN – 302,925 MAHONING – 232,411 LAKE – 230,383 WARREN – 223,171 TRUMBULL – 205,170 CLERMONT – 202,685 DELAWARE – 189,340
- 20. • PARCEL DATA – LAND USE • TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE & USAGE CHARACTERISTICS • COMMUTING CHARACTERISTICS • HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS • BUSINESS & SERVICE CHARACTERISTICS • POPULATION BY AGE AND DENSITY • INCOME CHARACTERISTICS WHERE AND HOW FAST?
- 22. * STRONG CORRELATION WITH LOCATION OF UNIVERSITIES ADOPTION READINESS (TODAY)
- 24. 2020 – CITIES WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF LEVEL 2 TRAFFIC
- 30. • OWNERSHIP MODEL MORE WIDELY ADOPTED ON A GEOGRAPHIC SCALE • SHARED MODEL LIKELY TO HAVE MORE USERS (LONG-TERM) • HYBRID OF THE MODELS IS MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
- 31. IMPACTS
- 32. TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT “RULES” TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS: • 3-5 parking spaces per 1,000 square feet • Results in 40% of land needed for surface parking • Expect to get 10,000 square feet of commercial floor area per acre. • Other 33,000 s.f. of site area used for parking, circulation, storm, setbacks.
- 33. HILLIARD-ROME / I-270 INTERSECTION 109 ACRES FREEWAY- ORIENTED SITE
- 38. NEW DEVELOPMENT “RULES” ? DEVELOPMENT KEY POINTS: • Parking is THE major constraint on development • Development will be free from parking constraints • The old rules of development will be obsolete • Enormous increase in developable land • Urban areas will become denser • Suburban areas could expand
- 39. MUST CONSIDER FUTURE REALITIES WHILE ADDRESSING IMMEDIATE NEEDS : • Can garages pay for themselves when the economic model flips? • If long-term public financing? • Can we locate in key areas to be compatible with high AV usage? DOWNTOWN DISTRICTS PARKING STRATEGY – DEVELOPMENT AND GARAGES Source: Franklin County Convention Facilities Authority
- 40. • TYPICAL URBAN NEIGHBORHOOD STREET • ON-STREET PARKING SPACES IN 8-9 FOOT LANE • IF LITTLE OR NO ON-STREET PARKING NEEDED, REPURPOSE STREETS: • Stormwater controls • Recreation • Narrowing • Buildable? STREETS NEIGHBORHOODS
- 41. • TYPICAL TRADITIONAL NEIGHBORHOOD: • On-street parking, one or both sides of most streets STREETS NEIGHBORHOODS – GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS, OHIO Source: City of Grandview Traffic Advisory Plan
- 42. • POTENTIAL AREA TO “RECLAIM”: • Approx 30 miles of parking lanes • Generally 8’ lane width • Result in this one city for local roads only = 1.3 million square feet (30 acres) STREETS NEIGHBORHOODS – GRANDVIEW HEIGHTS, OHIO
- 44. WHAT SHOULD PLANNERS BE DOING?
- 45. 1. MAINSTREAM THE DISCUSSION 2. SET POLICY OBJECTIVES 3. START PLANNING DIFFERENTLY • Site design • Roadway design • Land use • Neighborhood planning • Comprehensive planning • Regional infrastructure systems • Prioritize public investment PLANNING IMPERATIVES
- 46. • WE NEED TO THINK BIG • THE TRANSPORTATION TRANSFORMATION IS COMING • WE NEED TO BE PREPARED. BIG IDEAS…