The Use of Evidence in Developing Countries: Experiences and Challenges -
- 1. The use of evidence in developing countries: Experiences and ChallengesMiguel Szekely, October 11, 2010
- 2. 3ie3ie aims to improve the lives of people in the developing world by supporting the production and use of better evidence of what works, when, why and for how much
- 3. Why are we still asking this question?21st CenturyDecades (centuries) of policy interventionsThe fact is that we don’t have powerful answers (in general)Why is it necessary to have a 3ie?
- 4. Evaluation in other areasBuilding a bridge (stands and resists, or breaks down)Economic management (growth, employment, inflation, exchange rate stability)Tangible results observable and evident in the short runConstituencies can vote depending on measurable tangible results
- 5. Evaluation in developing policy (education, poverty alleviation)Problems with measuring welfareResults take a long time to manifest and to be observedDifficult to find who to blame (Toyota, Spaceship vs teacher)Large bureaucracies become constituencies and feel threatened
- 6. Contents:The need for improving policy impact in developing countriesExperiences from Mexico in Social Development and EducationThinking about the problemWays forward
- 7. Contents:The need for improving policy impact in developing countriesExperiences from Mexico in Social Development and EducationThinking about the problemWays forward
- 8. Normally you would expect ….Evidence-basedPolicy designEvaluationMonitoringImplementationDecisionsImprovementChangesEvidence
- 10. Unfortunately…Very seldom are policy decisions taken, based on scientific (or other) evidence
- 11. Has been like this for years in important areas such as education, (health) and poverty alleviation programs
- 12. Good opportunity for 3ieContents:The need for improving policy impact in developing countriesExperiences from Mexico in Social Development and EducationThinking about the problemWays forward
- 13. 4 experiences4 regularitiesPoverty measurement
- 15. Standardized tests in Education
- 16. Evaluation of school principals
- 17. Ignored
- 18. Angry(people take it personal)Scared
- 19. UseContents:The need for improving policy impact in developing countriesExperiences from Mexico in Social Development and EducationThinking about the problemWays forward
- 20. Very similar to principal-agent problemPoliticiansEvaluatorsUtility = Get reelected
- 21. Re-appointed
- 22. Keep the boat afloatUtility = Academic purity
- 23. Publications
- 24. PrestigeImprovement design and maximizing policy impact
- 25. 1. Different Marginal Propensity to “consume and produce” evaluationsPoliticiansEvaluatorsHigh MPc due to need to show results (deliver to constituencies, and little time to reap benefits)Low MPc due to time needed to increase quality of academic output (probability of publication)
- 26. 2. Different expected returns from evaluatingPoliticiansEvaluatorsUncertain results, uncertain political capitalization (only through positive impact)Publication depends on methodological and theoretical rigorousness, not on positive or negative effects
- 27. 3. Different prioritiesPoliticiansEvaluatorsPolitical feasibility
- 31. Production of knowledgeContents:The need for improving policy impact in developing countriesExperiences from Mexico in Social Development and EducationThinking about the problemWays forward
- 32. How can we get closer (aligning incentives/cultural change)PoliticiansEvaluatorsEvaluation NOT the final product (implementing improvement is)
- 33. Pay for implementation strategies', not only for evaluation
- 34. Incentives on successful implementation (3ie)
- 35. Quicker ways of disseminating results
- 36. Link budget to results
- 37. Link hiring and firing to results
- 38. Institutionalize evaluation practice (de-link from political cycles)
- 39. Offer evaluations of a set of instruments to chooseCritical role for the media