Theory of change in rule of law reform
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The document discusses a theory of change in rule of law reform, highlighting the inadequacy of technical solutions for adaptive changes that involve altering people's beliefs and behaviors. It outlines a five-stage process of change—from late status quo through resistance and chaos to integration and a new status quo—emphasizing the importance of relationships and local solutions in facilitating effective reform. It concludes that successful rule of law reform requires a systemic understanding, tailored approaches, and a focus on trust-building within communities.
Theory of change in rule of law reform
- 1. E X C E R P T S F R O M I N P R O L , “ A P R A C T I T I O N E R ' S G U I D E : A G U I D E T O C H A N G E A N D C H A N G E M A N A G E M E N T F O R R U L E O F L A W P R A C T I T I O N E R S ” ( V . O ’ C O N N E R ) A N D N E W C O M M E N T A R Y G R E G K L E P O N I S , P H . D ( A B V ) . L . L . M , M A C O L O N E L , U S A F ( R E T ) Theory of Change in Rule of Law Reform
- 2. Theory of Change A set of beliefs about how change happens Rule of Law problems usually approached as technical problems that require technical solutions Better training Better equipment More funding While there may be- most involve “adaptive change”
- 3. What is Adaptive Change? Ronald Heifetz- “involves changes in people’s priorities, beliefs, habits and loyalties.” Both Rational mind and the emotional mind Most common failure is applying technical solutions to adaptive changes- we have done this for the past 16 years in Afghanistan
- 4. Technical Change Implemented with current know-how- expertise, and existing ways of doing things Assumption that our programs will travel Must guard against trying to apply the easy solutions – off the shelf US solutions Must take on limitations of culture, structure of institutions and how they differ. No perfect solution of “best practice”
- 5. Newtonian Physics Approach Many engaged in Rule of Law reform unconsciously approach change by this approach Newtonian Physics- “influence occurs as a direct result of force exerted form one person to another” and that “we can predict with accuracy the effect of such actions.” Reason: We can control “inputs”- we can report these with accuracy- not so much “outputs” – military personnel don’t like that
- 6. Quantum Physics More Applicable Quantum physics warns that predicting and control the impacts of reform initiatives is futile. Speaks to probabilities and that “change happens in jumps, beyond any power of precise prediction” Change cannot be forced “Emergent Change”
- 7. Change is not Linear Note here that change will and does occur but not at a predictable pace. There is a deep resistance for a period until gradually the new norms set in
- 8. Stage 1: Late Status Quo The pattern is consistent – stable relationships with implicit rules that underline behavior. Major problem- the group cannot cope with expectations and a pattern of dysfunctional behavior starts. Caught in a web of dysfunctional concepts, the members whose opinions count are unaware of the imbalance between group and environment
- 9. Stage 2: Resistance A foreign element threatens the stability of familiar power structures. Most members resist by denying its validity, avoiding the issue, or blaming someone for causing the problem. Resistance clogs awareness and conceals the desires highlighted by the foreign element.
- 10. Stage 3: Chaos The group enters the unknown. Relationships shatter - old expectations may no longer be valid. Old reactions may cease to be effective; and old behaviors may not be possible. This is where the real work of change takes place. A justice system becomes chaotic when it is impossible to know what to do next. As one scholar noted – “Change always involves a dark night, where everything falls apart.” In countries emerging from conflict, the usual trajectory is that things are fine for about 6 months at which point they start to deteriorate rapidly. Confusion chaos and pain
- 11. Stage 4: Integration The members discover a transforming idea that shows how the foreign element can benefit them. The group becomes excited- new relationships emerge that offer the opportunity for identity and belonging. Performance rapidly improves.
- 12. Stage 5: New Status Quo If the change is well conceived and assimilated, the group and it’s environment are in better accord and performance stabilizes. Note: Resistance is inevitable. Even people who want change often exhibit “immunity to change” They fight change because of hidden and competing personal issues that outweigh their visible commitment to change (cognitive dissonance)
- 13. “It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out nor more doubtful of success nor more dangerous to handle than to initiate a new order of things; for the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order; this lukewarmness arising partly from the incredulity of mankind who does not truly believe in anything new until they actually have experience of it.” Nicolo Machiavelli (1469 - 1527)
- 14. Here’s the Deal Change is difficult!- 75 % of all change projects do not succeed. Rule of Law reform is complex- the cause and effect problems are inter-dependent and far apart in space and time- the cannot be addressed piece by piece- complexity takes time. World Bank proposes that no country has transformed its institutions in less than a generation (15-30 years). Slow the progress- quick fixes don’t work Rushed reforms viewed as illegitimate Often rejected by populace One step forward- two steps back is normal
- 15. Importance of Relationships Heart of Rule of Law Reform- a failure in current US approach In quantum physics – relationships are all there is Change only occurs within relationship webs. Suffi Saying “You think because you understand one, you must understand two, because one and one equal two. But you must also understand the and” In order to facilitate change effectively, we must know how to facilitate process- and foster relationships
- 16. It’s All about the People Change and conflict are complex human dynamics – about people- not things Building trust- essential Rule of Law is relational. Requires a foundation of strong relationships between govt, citizens and groups Where conflict has kept people apart, first step must heal before attempting change. Interaction builds trust and people see each other and their similarities as human.
- 17. Keep it Local RoL reform can be most effective when comprised of smaller, local solutions rather than big, global solutions. Working locally is more likely to bring about meaningful changes that are within immediate reach - something we know can result in small wins and build on itself.
- 18. Systems not Silos RoL most effective when it focuses on systems Problems are interdependent Instead of breaking the system into parts- look at it in it’s entirety; identify those interconnections and the relationships that hold the elements together (systems thinking) Task organize around systems thinking. Don’t parcel out individual “tasks”
- 19. (1) Project Assessment Find intellectually curious professionals not obsessed with process Find people gifted in researching and “sensing” problems to be part of the team Think about role of “outsiders” in RoL assessments RoL problem –analysis is broad enough (hammer =nail) Understand systemic and complex nature of RoL Don’t succumb to “Paralysis of Analysis”
- 20. (2) Project Design & Implementation Focus on finding fundamental rather than symptomatic rule of law solutions Understand the importance of symbolic actions and solutions in a post conflict society Seek out creative, innovative, and responsive solutions to RoL problems Shrink the change into smaller solutions and work locally Prototype and pilot projects before scaling them Leave space to make adjustments
- 21. Creating Change Management Strategy for ROL Projects Build relationships and trust with stakeholders ( on-on- one discussions with the “strategic who;” consistency; transparency; solid processes; regular feedback and info & knowledge sharing) Use connectors – people that are good a connecting and building relationships Find and support Change agents/early adapters Develop strategies to address resistance Think and act politically (understand the limits of your authority of stakeholder interests or power and influence networks Build enthusiasm – Have Patience!