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Towards Building a Universal
Defect Prediction Model
Feng
Zhang
Audris
Mockus
Iman
Keivanloo
Ying
Zou
2
ONE ring that
rules the other rings of power.
3
A universal model that predicts
defects for all the projects.
4
Most successful prediction models are
within-project models
5
How about cross-project models?
6
Deriving a universal model with
cross-project models?
7
Select the training set of projects like this?
8
Or select the training set of projects like this?
9
Is it still possible to build a universal model?
If so, then how?
10
What context factors to consider ?
11
C++
S
C++
L
Java
S
Java
L
Steps towards building a universal model
1. Partition
C++ Java
Small size
Large size
Programming
languages System Size
12
C++
S
C++
L
Java
S
Java
L
Steps towards building a universal model
1. Partition
C++
S
C++
L
Java
2. Cluster
R1(x)
R1(x)
R3(x)
3. Obtain Ranking
Functions
4. Rank
Using quantiles of metric values
(- ∞, 10%] => level 1
(10%, 20%] => level 2
…
[90%, +∞) => level 10
Java
S
Java
L
Java
13
C++
S
C++
L
Java
S
Java
L
Build a universal model
1. Partition
C++
S
C++
L
Java
2. Cluster
R1(x)
R1(x)
R3(x)
3. Obtain Ranking
Functions
4. Rank
Build a universal defect prediction
model using rank-transformed values.
14
Case study setup
937
461
0
200
400
600
800
Version Control System
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Using Not Using
Issue Tracking System
0
200
400
600
800
Programming languages
15
Research Questions
16
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Precision Recall AUC
Rank Transformation
Log Transformation
0.48 0.48
0.57
0.58
0.62
0.61
RQ1. Is our rank transformation good ?
17
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Precision Recall AUC
Universal Model
Within-project Model
0.45
0.48
0.58
0.63 0.64
0.62
RQ2. How good is the universal model ?
18
RQ3. Does the universal model work for
external projects ?
Predict
19
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Eclipse Equinox PDE Mylyn Lucene
Universal Model
Within-project Model
0.31
0.47
0.63
0.66
0.21
0.13
Precision
0.23
0.28
0.23
0.28
RQ3. Precision comparison
20
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Eclipse Equinox PDE Mylyn Lucene
Universal Model
Within-project Model
0.57
0.79
0.54
0.61 0.61
0.34
Recall
0.47
0.72
0.42
0.60
RQ3. Recall comparison
21
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.8
Eclipse Equinox PDE Mylyn Lucene
Universal Model
Within-project Model
0.76
0.77 0.78
0.79
0.69
0.67
AUC
0.70 0.70
0.68
0.69
RQ3. AUC comparison
22
Summary

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Towards Building a Universal Defect Prediction Model