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Turf Replacement Program Evaluation
Melissa Matlock
73rd SWCS International Annual Conference
July 29 – August 1, 2018
Overview
• Results
• Neighborhood Effect
• Discussion
• Background
• Program Summary
• Participants and Controls
Image Source: Before and After Image of a Turf
Replacement Participant
Background - CA
• In 2014, California experienced record dry conditions
• Water supplies dipped to alarming levels
• Snowpack in California’s mountains was approximately 20 percent of the
normal average for this date
• California’s largest water reservoirs had very low water levels for this
time of year
• California’s major river systems, including the Sacramento and San
Joaquin rivers, had significantly reduced surface water flows
• Groundwater levels throughout the state dropped significantly
Image Source: http://www.drought.ca.gov
Background - CA
• Jan 2014 – Governor
declared a Drought State
of Emergency
• Agencies had to execute
a statewide water
conservation campaign
to make all Californians
aware of the drought
and encourage personal
actions to reduce water
usage
• Agencies had to
implement their local
water shortage
contingency plans
Image Source: www.waterboards.ca.gov
Background – WMWD
• Western Municipal Water District
(WMWD)
• Located in Southern CA
• Serves 23,000 retail customers
• Annual average sales of
20 TAF
• Water wholesaler to 8 water
agencies
• Water provided from Colorado
River, State Water Project (SWP)
from the Northern California
Delta River, & local groundwater
• SWP ~ 70%
Image Source: WMWD GIS
Background – WMWD
• Pioneer Agency
• Business model adaptation to balance growth with the needs of the global community
• Environmental steward
• Diversifying the sources of water for sustainability
• As water supplies dwindle, using water efficiently is the lowest cost means to create
additional supplies, particularly when compared to developing new infrastructure, drilling
additional wells or purchasing water from outside the region.
To that end, WMWD provides many rebate and incentive programs to help our customers in
partnering with us to work and live efficiently.
Image Source: WMWD
Program Summary
Turf Replacement Program
• Rebate program to pay customers to rip out their
current grass and replace it with climate – appropriate
plants
• Two Phases
• From 2009‒2014, rebate was $.40‒$1/square feet
(sqft)
• From 2014‒2016, rebate was $2/sqft
• Additional funding due to drought emergency
declaration
• Required 50% plant coverage, design submittal, pre-
and post- inspection, mulch
• Required to convert irrigation systems to drip,
microspray, and/or bubblers
• Required receipts, paid rebate up to cost of project or
$2/sqft
Program Summary
• 227 Single-family participants
• 13% in Murrieta
• 87% in Riverside
• ~$1.3M rebate dollars invested
• Average rebate ~ $6,049
• 792,185 sqft of turf removed
• Average sqft ~ 3,458
• Representative of Western Customer Base
• Census Block Data
Average
Customer Base
Participants
Landscaped Area (sqft) 13,134 13,004
Household Size 4 4
% with College Degree 31% 32%
Median Household Income $97,128 $104,142
Median Year Home Built 1994 1995
Water Budget 601 656
Participants & Controls
Participants:
• Included in study: 193
• 34 excluded due to data issues
• 1 yr pre and 1 yr post
Controls - Neighbors:
• WMWD customers that did not participate in
the Turf Replacement Program but are
neighbors to those that did participate
• Selected matching lot size, accounting for
HOA watering requirements, similar outdoor
watering needs (if customer had a pool, then
control had a pool), and similar climate and
ET factors
• Random subset of 52 participants, 100
controls were selected
Results
Three Important Numbers
.32
43
2.5
Results – Difference in Difference Design
Average
Water
Usage
AF/Yr
1 YR Before 1 YR After
Controls
Participants
Assumption
1.53
1.17
1.54
.85
.32
Results
• Participants see an average change of .32 AF of water savings in the year
• Controls have no significant change in water usage
• Significant difference in usage between the two groups
• Followed up in 2016
• Participants saw an average water savings of .39 AF
• Water savings continued over time
Results – Gal/Sqft
Hypothesis
• Water savings of 31 gallons/sqft of turf
replaced
Findings
• 35 – 43 gallons/sqft replaced
• When more sqft was replaced, less water
savings
• 1000-2000 Sqft “Sweet Spot”
• Part of the yard replaced:
• 65 – 75 gallons/sqft replaced for front
yard
• Significantly higher than back yards
• Contractor or Customer do the replacement:
• Contractor had higher savings, but not
significant
• Small sample size
Neighborhood Effect
Have the neighbors also switched to drought-
tolerant landscape?
• 70 customer random subset used in
analysis
• Analyzed 10 nearest homes
Findings: Average of 3.97 neighbors out of 10
had turf replacement (39.7%)
Multiplier Effect – When did they switch?
Significant 1:2.5 Effect – for every 1 participant, an average of 2.5 neighbors also did
some sort of turf replacement AFTER the participant
• Includes front and back yards from Google Earth
Water Use - Measured water usage for the year before and the year after they switched
• Average water use reduction was .38 AF/yr/customer
• Provides reliability towards water savings estimate
Discussion
WMWD takes transparency seriously and strives to be a
good steward of public monies. Every attempt was made
to be fair and equitable in this program and to get the
most out of every dollar.
1 Year 10 Years
Water Savings 61 AF 610 AF
Number of
Participants
193 193
Rebate Amount $1,371,495 $1,371,495
Cost of Water in Net
Present Value (NPV)
$22,483/AF $2,248/AF
Participants (Western)
and Multiplier Effect
in NPV
794 customers
$1,371,495 Rebate
242 AF
$5,667/AF
2,420 AF
$566/AF
Discussion
• State of California Executive
Order – May 2016
• Make Conservation a Way of
Life
• Continue to monitor water
savings
• Determine if savings will last
longer than 1-2 years
WMWD used results of the program evaluation to support a new
Turf Replacement Program
Summary
3 Important Numbers + Purpose
.32 43 2.5 2
AF
Average water
savings per
WMWD
customer per
year
Gals/sqft
Average
gallons of
water saved
per square foot
of turf
removed per
year
Neighbors
Number of neighbors
that switched out
their turf after the
participants did
$/sqft
The amount of
supplemental funding
for the new turf
replacement program
www.facebook.com/WesternMWD/@beingwaterwise WMWDVideo1www.instagram.com/westernmwd/
Questions
These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include
full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To
avoid misinterpretations, please contact:
Melissa Matlock
mmatlock@wmwd.com

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Turf replacement program evaluation

  • 1. Turf Replacement Program Evaluation Melissa Matlock 73rd SWCS International Annual Conference July 29 – August 1, 2018
  • 2. Overview • Results • Neighborhood Effect • Discussion • Background • Program Summary • Participants and Controls Image Source: Before and After Image of a Turf Replacement Participant
  • 3. Background - CA • In 2014, California experienced record dry conditions • Water supplies dipped to alarming levels • Snowpack in California’s mountains was approximately 20 percent of the normal average for this date • California’s largest water reservoirs had very low water levels for this time of year • California’s major river systems, including the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, had significantly reduced surface water flows • Groundwater levels throughout the state dropped significantly Image Source: http://www.drought.ca.gov
  • 4. Background - CA • Jan 2014 – Governor declared a Drought State of Emergency • Agencies had to execute a statewide water conservation campaign to make all Californians aware of the drought and encourage personal actions to reduce water usage • Agencies had to implement their local water shortage contingency plans Image Source: www.waterboards.ca.gov
  • 5. Background – WMWD • Western Municipal Water District (WMWD) • Located in Southern CA • Serves 23,000 retail customers • Annual average sales of 20 TAF • Water wholesaler to 8 water agencies • Water provided from Colorado River, State Water Project (SWP) from the Northern California Delta River, & local groundwater • SWP ~ 70% Image Source: WMWD GIS
  • 6. Background – WMWD • Pioneer Agency • Business model adaptation to balance growth with the needs of the global community • Environmental steward • Diversifying the sources of water for sustainability • As water supplies dwindle, using water efficiently is the lowest cost means to create additional supplies, particularly when compared to developing new infrastructure, drilling additional wells or purchasing water from outside the region. To that end, WMWD provides many rebate and incentive programs to help our customers in partnering with us to work and live efficiently. Image Source: WMWD
  • 7. Program Summary Turf Replacement Program • Rebate program to pay customers to rip out their current grass and replace it with climate – appropriate plants • Two Phases • From 2009‒2014, rebate was $.40‒$1/square feet (sqft) • From 2014‒2016, rebate was $2/sqft • Additional funding due to drought emergency declaration • Required 50% plant coverage, design submittal, pre- and post- inspection, mulch • Required to convert irrigation systems to drip, microspray, and/or bubblers • Required receipts, paid rebate up to cost of project or $2/sqft
  • 8. Program Summary • 227 Single-family participants • 13% in Murrieta • 87% in Riverside • ~$1.3M rebate dollars invested • Average rebate ~ $6,049 • 792,185 sqft of turf removed • Average sqft ~ 3,458 • Representative of Western Customer Base • Census Block Data Average Customer Base Participants Landscaped Area (sqft) 13,134 13,004 Household Size 4 4 % with College Degree 31% 32% Median Household Income $97,128 $104,142 Median Year Home Built 1994 1995 Water Budget 601 656
  • 9. Participants & Controls Participants: • Included in study: 193 • 34 excluded due to data issues • 1 yr pre and 1 yr post Controls - Neighbors: • WMWD customers that did not participate in the Turf Replacement Program but are neighbors to those that did participate • Selected matching lot size, accounting for HOA watering requirements, similar outdoor watering needs (if customer had a pool, then control had a pool), and similar climate and ET factors • Random subset of 52 participants, 100 controls were selected
  • 11. Results – Difference in Difference Design Average Water Usage AF/Yr 1 YR Before 1 YR After Controls Participants Assumption 1.53 1.17 1.54 .85 .32
  • 12. Results • Participants see an average change of .32 AF of water savings in the year • Controls have no significant change in water usage • Significant difference in usage between the two groups • Followed up in 2016 • Participants saw an average water savings of .39 AF • Water savings continued over time
  • 13. Results – Gal/Sqft Hypothesis • Water savings of 31 gallons/sqft of turf replaced Findings • 35 – 43 gallons/sqft replaced • When more sqft was replaced, less water savings • 1000-2000 Sqft “Sweet Spot” • Part of the yard replaced: • 65 – 75 gallons/sqft replaced for front yard • Significantly higher than back yards • Contractor or Customer do the replacement: • Contractor had higher savings, but not significant • Small sample size
  • 14. Neighborhood Effect Have the neighbors also switched to drought- tolerant landscape? • 70 customer random subset used in analysis • Analyzed 10 nearest homes Findings: Average of 3.97 neighbors out of 10 had turf replacement (39.7%)
  • 15. Multiplier Effect – When did they switch? Significant 1:2.5 Effect – for every 1 participant, an average of 2.5 neighbors also did some sort of turf replacement AFTER the participant • Includes front and back yards from Google Earth Water Use - Measured water usage for the year before and the year after they switched • Average water use reduction was .38 AF/yr/customer • Provides reliability towards water savings estimate
  • 16. Discussion WMWD takes transparency seriously and strives to be a good steward of public monies. Every attempt was made to be fair and equitable in this program and to get the most out of every dollar. 1 Year 10 Years Water Savings 61 AF 610 AF Number of Participants 193 193 Rebate Amount $1,371,495 $1,371,495 Cost of Water in Net Present Value (NPV) $22,483/AF $2,248/AF Participants (Western) and Multiplier Effect in NPV 794 customers $1,371,495 Rebate 242 AF $5,667/AF 2,420 AF $566/AF
  • 17. Discussion • State of California Executive Order – May 2016 • Make Conservation a Way of Life • Continue to monitor water savings • Determine if savings will last longer than 1-2 years WMWD used results of the program evaluation to support a new Turf Replacement Program
  • 18. Summary 3 Important Numbers + Purpose .32 43 2.5 2 AF Average water savings per WMWD customer per year Gals/sqft Average gallons of water saved per square foot of turf removed per year Neighbors Number of neighbors that switched out their turf after the participants did $/sqft The amount of supplemental funding for the new turf replacement program
  • 19. www.facebook.com/WesternMWD/@beingwaterwise WMWDVideo1www.instagram.com/westernmwd/ Questions These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Melissa Matlock mmatlock@wmwd.com