Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: Results from Different GCMs/RCMs in the Context of Nepal
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Pabitra Gurung, a PhD student at the University of Northern British Columbia, explores uncertainties in climate models affecting the Himalayan and Hindu-Kush regions, particularly related to model resolution and capturing monsoon dynamics. The document discusses projected climate data for Nepal, highlighting significant changes in precipitation and temperature patterns from 2030 to 2060, and emphasizes the impacts on hydrology and agriculture. It also raises questions about how to improve climate models to better reflect these complex orographic effects.
Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: Results from Different GCMs/RCMs in the Context of Nepal
- 1. Pabitra Gurung PhD Student Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (NRES) University of Northern British Columbia
- 2. Curious to Know? What are the potential sources of uncertainty? Is it due to Model resolution? Is physics missing for such discrepancies? Is it a problem to capture monsoon well? Is this a common problem of the world? What is a scenario in Canada? What can be done to improve the climate model to fit into the Himalayan regions? Is there any improvement in IPCC AR5 that can address the orographic effects of the mountain?
- 3. Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region “Slope and Aspect” Source: Google Earth
- 4. How can we say climate is changing in the region? Snow and Glacier Retreat Shifting of Agro-ecological Zones Drying up Spring Water Sources and Migration Source: From my own experiences and various studies
- 5. Climate Data Portal: http://dhm.gov.np/dpc Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)
- 6. Projected Climate Data of Nepal RCM Climate Variable Data Period GCM SRES Family Resolution Source PRECIS Rainfall (mm), Temperature (⁰C) (Min and Max), Relative Humidity, Wind Speed, Solar Radiation, & Other 1970-2000 (Baseline), 2030-2060 (Projected) HadCM3Q0, ECHAM5 A1B 20 km DHM RegCM4 1960-1990 (Baseline), 2030-2060 (Projected) ECHAM4 A2 20 km ECHAM5 A1B WRF 1970-2000 (Baseline) 2030-2060 (Projected) Era40, CCSM3, ECHAM5, GFDL-V2, HadCM3 A1B 12 km Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
- 7. Projected Mean Annual Climatic Variables 3 RCMs (WRF, RegCM4 and PRECIS) for all scenarios from A1B…. grey lines: HadCM3Q0, ECHAM05, CCSM3, GFDL-V2, and HadCM3… mean as black line representing scenario A1B … ... red line represents scenario A2: ECHAM04….. Precipitation Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
- 8. Change of Annual Mean Precipitation (mm) (2030-2060) Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
- 9. Change of Annual Mean Maximum Daily Temperature ( C) (2030-2060) Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
- 10. Change of Annual Mean Minimum Daily Temperature ( C) (2030-2060) Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
- 11. Change in Monsoon (JJAS) Rainfall WRF-ECHAM5 WRF-GFDL-V2 WRF-HADCM3 PRECIS-HadCM3Q0 RegCM4-ECHAM5 WRF-CCSM3 SRES Family – A1B Source: IWMI
- 12. Change in Monsoon (JJAS) Max. Temperature WRF-ECHAM5 WRF-GFDL-V2 WRF-HADCM3 PRECIS-HadCM3Q0 RegCM4-ECHAM5 WRF-CCSM3 SRES Family – A1B Source: IWMI
- 13. Example of Hydrological Modeling: West Seti River Sub- basin of Nepal - Located at Far Western Region of Nepal - Catchment Area: 7,438 km2 - Elevation : 314 m to 7043 m (2505 m) - Annual Rainfall: 1921 mm - > 75 % Rainfall occurs only in monsoon Source: IWMI
- 14. Agro-Hydrological Model: Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Source: SWAT Document
- 15. Precipitation (2031-2060) Percentage Change in Water Balance (-13% to +40%) (+6% to +45%) (-36% to 0%) (-19% to +25%) Actual ET (2031-2060) (-39% to +122%) (-29% to +108%) (-30% to +75%) (-42% to +50%) Source:IWMI
- 16. Percentage Change in Water Balance Total Flow Volume (2031-2060) (-74% to +736%) (-94% to +714%) (-96% to +475%) (-67% to +939%) Net Water Yield (2031-2060) (-68% to +64%) (-68% to +66%) (-80% to +15%) (-76% to +22%) Source:IWMI
- 18. Thank you !!! Acknowledgement Dr. Luna Bharati Senior Researcher International Water Management Institute (IMWI) Dr. Stephen Dery Associate Professor University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC) Climate Science Informal Seminar (CSIS) University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC)
- 19. Potential Issues to Discuss? What are the potential sources of uncertainty? Is it due to Model resolution? Is physics missing for such discrepancies? Is it a problem to capture monsoon well? Is this a common problem of the world? What is a scenario in Canada? What can be done to improve the climate model to fit into the Himalayan regions? Is there any improvement in IPCC AR5 that can address the orographic effects of the mountain?
Editor's Notes
- #4: Major problem for the spatial distribution of the precipitation is orographic effect in this region. Slope and aspect of the lands is a vital factor that affects distribution of the climatic variables. Therefore, more rainfall occurs in the windward face of the mountains and less rain in the leeward face of the mountains.