Understanding Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change
- 1. Understanding Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change Maria Janowiak mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science USDA Forest Service Climate Change Response Framework www.forestadaptation.org
- 3. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science Climate Carbon Regional multi-institutional partnership among: We deliver new science, practical information, resources, and technical assistance related to forests and climate change.
- 4. Climate Change Information Image: www.ucciaconf.org
- 7. • Series of reports for natural resource professionals • Focus on tree species and forest ecosystems • Examine a range of future climates • Evaluate key ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change • Does not make recommendations or assess vulnerability to changes in mgmt., land use, policy Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis NEW REPORT! www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55635 Additional resources: www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
- 8. Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis Synthesize state/regional assessments and scientific literature • Identify areas of agreement regarding ecosystems and species at greatest risk • Describe state-of-knowledge for anticipated changes in climate and response of forest ecosystems Incorporate new results from forest impact models: Climate Change Tree Atlas, LINKAGES, LANDIS Draw on local expertise of scientists and land managers 34 authors – General Technical Report – 234 pages
- 9. Assessment Process & Expert Panel Forest Vulnerability & Confidence Potential Forest Change •Future climate •Published research •Model results Local Info •Current forest conditions •Climate trends Expert Knowledge & Experience (via workshop)
- 11. Models and Emissions Scenarios Future Changes in Climate Image: http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au
- 12. Models and Emissions Scenarios Future Changes in Climate Least Projected Change Most Projected Change PCM Low emissions (B1) GFDL High emissions (A1FI) Change in Temperature (°F)
- 13. Future Changes in Climate Anticipated Change in Climate Evidence Confidence Warmer temperatures increasing another 3.5 to 8.5 °F Longer growing season increasing another 20+ days Shorter, warmer winters with less snow fall and snow cover Sea levels rising by another 7 to 23 inches Altered precipitation patterns with increased annual rainfall Intense precipitation events that are more frequent and severe Altered soil moisture potentially both wetter and drier Increased risk of drought stress during the growing season = robust/high = medium
- 14. Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons Evidence of phenological shifts Projected to increase 3-7+ more weeks Longer period for plant growth Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014 Longer Growing Season
- 15. Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons Evidence of phenological shifts Projected to increase 3-7+ more weeks Longer period for plant growth Phenological changes/mismatches Early bud break and frost damage from late spring freezing. Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014 Longer Growing Season
- 16. Shorter Winter (Less Snow) Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth 30-70% decreases in snowfall Greatest loss in December/January Notaro et al. 2014, Figure: Frumhoff et al. 2007 Area with some snow on ground for 30 days per year Red = historic White = high emissions
- 17. Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth 30-70% decreases in snowfall Greatest loss in December/January Decreased snowpack Increased soil freeze-thaw cycles can damage roots and alter soil processes Shorter Winter (Less Snow)
- 18. More rain Warmer temperatures Increased precipitation Extreme rain events Earlier peak stream flows Flashiness and episodic high flows may increase Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006 Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain)
- 19. More rain Warmer temperatures Increased precipitation Extreme rain events Earlier peak stream flows Flashiness and episodic high flows may increase Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006 Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain)
- 20. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation)
- 21. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Precipitation Runoff Earlier spring runoff and increased runoff during extreme rain events
- 22. Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Warmer temperatures drive water loss from soils and plants
- 23. Changes in Forest Composition Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat LINKAGES: species establishment LANDIS: productivity and composition PCM B1 GFDL A1FI
- 24. Changes in Forest Composition Many northern/boreal species are projected to decline in the region– contract to more northerly and higher-elevation locations Many species common farther south are expected to see increased and new habitat within the region.
- 25. Likely to decline Balsam fir Black, red, & white spruce Northern white-cedar Eastern hemlock Black ash Paper birch Quaking aspen Tamarack Mixed model results American beech Sugar & red maple Yellow birch White pine Potential “winners” American elm American basswood Black cherry Eastern hophornbeam Gray birch Northern red oak Serviceberry Silver maple Sweet birch White oak New habitat (esp. south) Black hickory Chinkapin oak Common persimmon Hackberry Loblolly pine Osage-orange Shortleaf pine Southern red oak Sweetgum Virginia pine www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species Changes in Forest Composition
- 26. Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback Mature and established trees should fare better Immense lags to occupy habitats Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance Changes in Forest Composition Risk may be greatest: • Location is relatively near the southern extent of species range • Trees are projected to decline and located on a marginal site • Forest is composed of few species, esp. those projected to decline • Something is “missing” from the ecosystem • Other factors cause additional stress
- 27. Interactions: Wildfire Wildfire may increase: Warmer/drier summers Increased stress or mortality from less suitable conditions Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines Wildfire may not change: Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more mesic species Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation Fire suppression Clark et al. 2014, Guyette et al. 2014 Future climate conditions suggest increased risk of fire.
- 28. Extreme Events Extreme events may become more frequent or severe Heavy precipitation Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes “Events” are not well modeled Photo: Joe Klementovich, HBRF
- 29. Interactions: Insects and Disease Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct: Pests migrating northward Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures Accelerated lifecycles Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009, Weed et al. 2013, Sturrock et al. 2011 Increased damage from forest insects & diseases Hemlock woolly adelgid incidence ~2015
- 30. Interactions: Invasive Plants Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success Direct: Expanded ranges under warmer conditions Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2 Dukes et al. 2009, Hellman et al. 2008; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org) Increased habitat for many noxious plants
- 31. “Threat Multiplier” Image: Bartlett Tree Experts Drought Injury Interactions make all the difference. Chronic stress Disturbances Insect pests Forest diseases Invasive species Pests and Disease
- 32. Vulnerability: Forest Communities Forest communities will be affected differently Forest system Vulnerability Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Low-elevation spruce-fir Moderate-High Neutral-Negative Moderate Lowland mixed conifer Moderate-High Neutral-Negative Low-Moderate Montane spruce-fir Moderate-High Neutral-Negative Moderate Lowland/riparian hardwood Moderate Positive and Negative Moderate-High Northern hardwood Low-Moderate Positive and Negative Moderate-High Transition hardwood Low-Moderate Positive and Negative Moderate-High Central hardwood-pine Low Neutral-Positive Moderate-High Pitch pine-scrub oak Low Neutral-Positive Moderate
- 33. Regional to Site-Specific Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions and management make the difference.
- 34. How Managers are Responding Adaptation Demonstrations provide real-world examples of forest management activities that: • Enhance the ability of forests to cope with changing conditions • Achieve land owner management goals Foster cross-ownership dialogue and learning Illustrate diverse goals and approaches
- 35. www.forestadaptation.org/demos 250+ Projects have used the Adaptation Workbook Adaptation Demonstrations Real-world examples of climate-informed forest management
- 36. Atlas Timberlands (VT) www.forestadaptation.org/atlas Sustainable forestry Conservation
- 37. Current Management with Adaptation Benefits • Follow BMPs for water quality • Increase coarse woody material • Increase tree species diversity • Increase forest structural diversity • Ensure adequate seedling regeneration • Control invasives • Minimize roads & trails Atlas Timberlands (VT)
- 38. Challenge: Shorter and more variable winters Atlas Timberlands (VT)
- 39. • Road layout • Pre-sale road work • Temporary bridge installation Adaptation Tactic: Summer harvest Atlas Timberlands (VT)
- 40. Increase tree species diversity & forest structure Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases Promote native species adapted to future conditions Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary (MA/CT)
- 41. Increase tree species diversity & forest structure Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases Increase stream connectivity Reducing impacts from extreme events, low flows, etc. Trout Unlimited & Partners (VT/MA)
- 42. Increase species diversity & forest structure Promote future-adapted tree species by planting (red & black spruce, white pine) Current White Pine Abundance The Nature Conservancy (ME)
- 43. Providence Water (RI) Water quality Water quantity Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases Promote future-adapted tree species by planting southern species (black oak, pin oak, persimmon, pitch pine, shortleaf pine) Minimize impacts from herbivory
- 44. If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s “It depends” It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.
- 45. Next time you’re in the woods Take a look around & think about: What’s important here? How might it change? What am I already doing to help? What else can I do? www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015
- 46. Maria Janowiak mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us 906-482-6303 x1329 Photo by Todd Ontl, NIACS