Using Data to Drive Results in Economic and Workforce Development
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The document discusses workforce and economic development challenges in Illinois, highlighting a shrinking working-age population and the need for skilled workers due to factors like automation and aging demographics. It emphasizes the importance of data for assessing workforce supply and demand, as well as the alignment of educational programs with job market needs. Additionally, it outlines strategies for employers to address the skills gap through a talent pipeline management approach.
Using Data to Drive Results in Economic and Workforce Development
- 1. Using Data to Drive Results in Economic and Workforce Development Diana Robinson, Director Brian Harger, Research Associate Center for Governmental Studies at Northern Illinois University Governor’s Summit on Workforce Development East Peoria, Illinois October 1, 2018 1
- 2. Framing Issues • Youth and working age populations throughout the State will shrink between 2010 and 2025, while the senior population will grow substantially. • Declining birthrates and the out-migration of young families are reducing the current and potential future workforce. • The retirement of Baby Boomers is fueling demand for replacement workers. • Industries are being disrupted by global competition, changing consumer demands, and labor shortages. 2
- 3. Framing Issues • Automation and new technologies requiring higher levels of training and skills from new workers, while displacing experienced workers. • Data to assess workforce supply and demand and training needs is plentiful, but significant limitations remain. • More tools for accessing, aggregating and managing workforce data are becoming available. • Cost, compatibility between systems, and interpret results in a meaningful way are significant challenges. 3
- 4. Key Questions • What data sources can we use to assess workforce supply and demand needs? • What do the available data tell us? • What else do we need to know? (information gaps) • How does the current workforce align with available jobs? • How do we factor in impact of automation? Can we identify or quantify the potential impact? 4
- 5. Assessing Workforce Demand What industries and occupations should be regional priorities? • Determining the focus: growing, stable or mature. • Overall demand: LQ, shift-share analysis, historical and projected employment by sector. • Targeted industry staffing patterns. • Immediate demand – job postings. • Long-term demand – IDES/BLS projections, local age distribution, employer surveys. 5
- 6. Shift-Share Analysis Illinois Manufacturing Industries with the Highest Competitive Share Job Gains NAICS Industry Growth Stage Employment (2017) Employment Change* L.Q. (2017) L.Q. Change* National Growth Share (Jobs) Industry Mix Share (Jobs) Competitive Share (Jobs) 3361 Motor vehicle manufacturing High LQ Job Growth 10,860 1.2 997 -3,139 3,745 3391 Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing Low LQ Job Growth 12,802 1.0 1,203 -1,291 1,716 3119 Other food manufacturing High LQ Job Growth 11,160 1.2 746 2,324 1,160 3115 Dairy product manufacturing Low LQ Job Growth 5,910 1.0 525 -175 685 3343 Audio and video equipment manufacturing High LQ Job Loss 1,564 1.9 267 -1,800 616 3116 Animal slaughtering and processing Low LQ Job Growth 17,943 0.9 1,857 -1,760 600 3364 Aerospace product and parts manufacturing Low LQ Job Growth 3,098 0.2 302 -465 458 3371 Household and institutional furniture manufacturing Low LQ Job Loss 6,124 0.6 1,096 -5,602 447 3365 Railroad rolling stock manufacturing High LQ Job Loss 1,376 1.5 154 -613 408 3334 HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment manufacturing Low LQ Job Loss 5,448 1.0 801 -3,185 394 3255 Paint, coating, and adhesive manufacturing High LQ Job Loss 5,288 2.1 671 -1,937 321 3159 Accessories and other apparel manufacturing High LQ Job Growth 34,520 1.3 111 -775 313 3333 Commercial and service industry machinery High LQ Job Loss 5,289 1.4 886 -4,118 291 * Percent change , 2000-2017. Source: CGS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Covered Employment and Wages (CEW) data, 2017. Assessing Workforce Demand 6
- 7. Assessing Workforce DemandIndustry Staffing Pattern Example Employment by Industry, Occupation, and Percent Distribution, 2016-2026 NAICS Industry 332710: Machine shops SOC Code Occupation Title 2016 2026 2016-2026 Employment Percent of industry Percent of occupation Employment Percent of industry Percent of occupation Percent change Employment change 00-0000 Total, all occupations 273,600 100.0 0.2 276,700 100 0.2 1.2 3,100 11-0000 Management occupations 15,100 5.5 0.2 15,700 5.7 0.2 4.1 600 13-0000 Business and financial operations occupations 6,600 2.4 0.1 6,600 2.4 0.1 0.8 100 15-0000 Computer and mathematical occupations 1,200 0.4 0.0 1,100 0.4 0.0 -3.8 0 17-0000 Architecture and engineering occupations 7,000 2.6 0.3 7,300 2.6 0.3 4.3 300 19-0000 Life, physical, and social science occupations 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 4.3 0 27-0000 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 100 0.1 0.0 200 0.1 0.0 4.3 100 29-0000 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 100 0.0 0.0 100 0 0.0 4.3 0 37-0000 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 2,100 0.8 0.0 2,200 0.8 0.0 4.3 100 41-0000 Sales and related occupations 4,800 1.8 0.0 5,000 1.8 0.0 4.3 200 43-0000 Office and administrative support occupations 28,500 10.4 0.1 27,200 9.8 0.1 -4.6 -1,300 47-0000 Construction and extraction occupations 1,200 0.4 0.0 1,200 0.4 0.0 4.3 100 49-0000 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 7,600 2.8 0.1 7,900 2.9 0.1 4.3 300 51-0000 Production occupations 192,600 70.4 2.1 195,200 70.5 2.2 1.3 2,500 53-0000 Transportation and material moving occupations 6,600 2.4 0.1 6,800 2.5 0.1 4.3 300 Source: Employment Projections Program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018. 7
- 8. Assessing Workforce Demand Job Postings by Occupation DeKalb County, Illinois Occupation Active Postings (August 2017) Active Postings (August 2018) Average Monthly Hires (2017) Average Monthly Hires (2018) Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 1,032 477 22 23 Unclassified Occupation 124 122 0 0 Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs 20 153 2 2 Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers 30 122 11 11 Registered Nurses 44 67 26 26 Insurance Sales Agents 10 27 3 3 Retail Salespersons 22 57 88 89 Postsecondary Teachers 5 44 41 40 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 3 52 11 11 Childcare Workers 42 28 11 11 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 30 40 24 24 Real Estate Sales Agents 40 4 2 2 Speech-Language Pathologists 19 23 3 3 Customer Service Representatives 20 28 50 52 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 7 33 13 14 Employment Trends by Occupation DeKalb County, Illinois Occupation Group Description Jobs (2017) Jobs LQ* (2017) Job Growth (2014-2017) (2017-2020) Management 3,242 1.37 -0.5% 0.3% Business and Financial Operations 1,199 0.55 3.4% 2.8% Computer and Mathematical 577 0.48 -0.5% 2.3% Architecture and Engineering 421 0.59 -5.6% 4.3% Life, Physical, and Social Science 199 0.58 -12.7% 1.5% Community and Social Service 789 1.13 0.6% -0.9% Legal 149 0.42 2.1% 3.4% Education, Training, and Library 3,984 1.65 -4.1% 0.9% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media 595 0.77 2.9% 4.2% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 2,169 0.92 1.9% 6.4% Healthcare Support 1,080 0.94 -5.5% 8.2% Protective Service 914 0.95 3.4% 2.0% EMSI Occupation Employment Reports 8
- 9. Assessing Workforce Supply Look at all segments of the pipeline • Employment, unemployment and labor force participation. • Other sources (may vary by quantity and quality depending on your area): • K-12 (especially career and technical education students) • Community colleges • Four-year institutions • Proprietary institutions • WIOA program completers • Apprenticeship and internship programs • Discouraged workers (e.g. people with disabilities, opportunity youth, ‘returning citizens’, un-retired older workers, homeless, displaced homemakers) • Others in WIOA and Illinois Unified State Plan. What other sources have you found? 9
- 10. Assessing Workforce Supply • How effective are programs targeted to these populations? • Can we count on them to significantly help address the skills gap? • How does the current workforce generally align with available jobs (white vs. blue collar)? • How well do current skill sets align with demand? • Do commuting patterns tell part of the story? • What do the available data tell us? 10
- 11. Assessing Workforce Supply EMSI Gap Analysis Programs by Institution CIP Code Title Institution Award Level Completions (2016) 15.0503 Energy Management and Systems Technology/Technician Heartland Community College Award of less than 1 academic year 0 15.0503 Energy Management and Systems Technology/Technician Illinois Central College Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic years 0 15.0503 Energy Management and Systems Technology/Technician Heartland Community College Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic years 0 15.0503 Energy Management and Systems Technology/Technician Illinois Central College Associate's Degree 1 15.9999 Engineering Technologies and Engineering-Related Fields, Other Illinois Central College Award of less than 1 academic year 0 22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal Illinois Central College Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic years 10 22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal Illinois Central College Associate's Degree 14 22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal Midstate College Associate's Degree 7 22.0399 Legal Support Services, Other Midstate College Associate's Degree 0 51.0803 Occupational Therapist Assistant Illinois Central College Associate's Degree 16 51.0806 Physical Therapy Technician/Assistant Illinois Central College Associate's Degree 19 51.0806 Physical Therapy Technician/Assistant Heartland Community College Associate's Degree 0 51.1502 Psychiatric/Mental Health Services Technician Illinois Central College Award of less than 1 academic year 4 51.1502 Psychiatric/Mental Health Services Technician Illinois Central College Associate's Degree 0 Significant Certificate and Associate Degree Level Progran Gaps North Central Illinois Economic Development Region SOC Description 2014 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2014 - 2018 Change 2014 - 2018 % Change Annual Openings Regional Completions (2016) Opening vs. Completions Typical Entry Level Education Median Hourly Earnings 15-1152 Computer Network Support Specialists 363 409 46 12.7% 44 258 214 Associate's degree $30.22 17-3026 Industrial Engineering Technicians 178 196 18 10.1% 30 95 65 Associate's degree $33.41 17-3029 Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters, All Other 301 374 73 24.3% 51 38 (13) Associate's degree $34.25 19-4051 Nuclear Technicians 35 136 101 288.6% 38 0 (38) Associate's degree $48.71 23-2011 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 565 654 89 15.8% 86 35 (51) Associate's degree $24.99 31-2011 Occupational Therapy Assistants 107 130 23 21.5% 21 16 (5) Associate's degree $29.45 31-2021 Physical Therapist Assistants 243 260 17 7.0% 38 19 (19) Associate's degree $27.16 49-9021 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 482 511 29 6.0% 61 156 95 Postsecondary nondegree award $32.10 11
- 12. Assessing Workforce Supply Matching Skills/Competencies of Available Workers to Available Jobs Example: TORQ™ (Transferable Occupation Relationship Quotient) • Measures the “transferability” of workers among and between different occupations. • Based on the workforce competencies (abilities, skills, knowledge, education and experience) required for the job. • Identifies new career options for displaced workers. • Defines the skill and knowledge gaps of workers seeking to transfer from one occupation to another. • Defines essential curricular content for training programs to close those gaps. 12
- 13. Assessing Workforce Supply Matching Skills/Competencies of Available Workers to Available Jobs Example: TORQ™ (Transferable Occupation Relationship Quotient) Highly Compatible Occupations for Industrial Production Managers Transferability Analysis Industrial Production Managers to Storage and Distribution Managers 13
- 14. Assessing Workforce Supply US Chamber of Commerce Talent Pipeline Management (TPM) Initiative • A new approach to closing the skills gap by leveraging lessons learned and best practices from supply chain management. • TPM uses supply chain principles to encourage business and public policy leaders to transform education and workforce systems to be employer-led and demand driven. • Focused on six strategies that support employers playing a new role as end-customers of education and workforce partnerships. • The end-to-end TPM strategy implementation process intended to help launch and sustain employer-led education and workforce initiatives using a supply chain approach. 14
- 15. A Supply Chain Approach Strategy 1: Organize Employer Collaboratives 15 Strategy 2: Engage in Demand Planning Strategy 3: Communicate Competency and Credential Requirements Strategy 4: Analyze Talent Flows Strategy 5: Implement Shared Performance Measures Strategy 6: Align Incentives Managing the Talent Pipeline
- 16. 16 Mapping the Value System
- 17. Assessing the Impact of Automation • Automation and new technologies (e.g. AI and IoT) expected to dramatically impact employment and job-skills requirements. • There will be growing need for continual education and training for workers to remain competitive in their chosen occupation or launch new careers as existing ones become obsolete. • Automation potential doesn’t necessarily correlate with low- skill, low-wage jobs. • Middle-skilled jobs will face varying degrees of disruption from automation. • Although some jobs and occupations will disappear, most will experience restructuring or the replacement of some activities. 17
- 18. Assessing the Impact of Automation Annual Average Job Openings, Aging Workforce and Automation Potential Workforce Investment Area (WIA) #7 (Cook County), Illinois SOC Code Occupation Title Annual Average Job Openings (2014-2024) due to: Pct. Over 55 Years of Age1 (2016) Automation Potential2 New Jobs Replacements Total 29-2012 Medical & Clinical Lab Technicians 20 73 93 22.4% 64.0% 29-2021 Dental Hygienists 23 51 74 19.5% 13.0% 15-1134 Web Developers 94 35 129 8.3% 43.0% 29-2034 Radiologic Technologists & Technicians 2 63 65 20.9% 47.0% 31-2021 Physical Therapist Assistants 32 45 77 10.0% 37.0% 43-4161 HR Assistants, Except Payroll 0 22 22 16.7% 51.0% 15-1152 Computer Network Support Specialists 44 39 83 12.4% 62.0% 29-1126 Respiratory Therapists 17 52 69 19.0% 39.0% 29-2032 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 16 20 36 20.9% 48.0% 17-3023 Electrical & Electronics Engineering Technicians 0 38 38 25.5% 23.0% 19-4031 Chemical Technicians 1 22 23 26.3% 53.0% 31-2011 Occupational Therapy Assistants 12 16 28 10.0% 30.0% 19-4099 Life/Physical/Social Science Technicians 10 45 55 18.7% 58.0% 49-9062 Medical Equipment Repairers 2 11 13 20.8% 72.0% 29-2031 Cardiovascular Technologists & Technicians 14 17 31 20.9% 45.0% 19-4091 Environmental Science & Protection Technicians 6 26 32 18.7% 32.0% 1 Employed persons by detailed occupation and age (data for the US). 2 Probability of job tasks being diminished or eliminated by automation. Calculations are based on McKinsey & Company analysis of O*NET from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security, 2017; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017; McKinsey & Company, 2015. 18
- 19. Determining Supply/Demand Gaps What else do we need to know? • Real-time employment needs – now and 2 years out – for employers with chronic shortages. • Business intelligence to identify trends in companies and industries that may lead to job losses or demand for new skills/training. • Quantifying the impact of automation across industries and occupation at the level of job task or skills required. • What can we do to create or develop new data resources? 19
- 20. Key Takeaways 1. Use supply and demand as a way to identify the most important disconnects. 2. “Data dumps” are not the best starting points. Begin with core questions and identify what information you need. 3. Don’t sacrifice the good for the perfect. Qualitative and anecdotal information may be all there is for now. 4. LWIAs should know the entire local workforce system – not just the WIOA-eligible participants. 5. Strategic planning with all partners is where the meaning of the data can be constructed together. Each partner brings their own perspective. 20
- 21. Contact Diana L. Robinson Director Center for Governmental Studies Northern Illinois University 148 North Third Street DeKalb, Illinois 60115 drobinsin@niu.edu 815.753.0955 https://www.linkedin.com/in/diana-robinson/ Further Information https://www.cgs.niu.edu Contact Brian L. Harger Research Associate Center for Governmental Studies Northern Illinois University 148 North Third Street DeKalb, Illinois 60115 bharger@niu.edu 815.753.0934 https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianharger/ https://www.slideshare.net/BrianHarger/ https://www.cgs.niu.edu 21