Valone ieee istas2019-ppt ver4 with extra slide with links at end
- 1. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 QUANTITATIVE CARBON DIOXIDE, TEMPERATURE, AND SEA LEVEL RELATION FOR THE FUTURE Thomas Valone Integrity Research Institute Beltsville MD USA
- 2. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Slide Title 185 PWh = 630 Quads* (Petawatt-hours and Quadrillion BTUs) *EIA projection to 2020 33 PWh = 100 Quads* *US consumption 2018 Add 4.5 billion new air conditioners to world by 2050 = add another 33 PWh - RMI.org World Energy Usage is 90% Fossil-Fueled Technology Deeply Engrained in Societies with a Huge Carbon Footprint and Inertia annually 140 PWh A 50% increase in this energy demand is expected by 2050 - EIA 9/24/19
- 3. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 • CO2 up to 40 gigatons per year worldwide rapidly increasing rate • compared to 30 Gt/yr ten years ago CARBON EMISSIONS PER ANNUM ∆CO2 ∆CO2/∆t
- 4. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Paleoclimatology – Geo Past is Key to Future Graphs from University of Washington /Paleocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) ppm 800 ppm A2 = as usual
- 5. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Major Outcomes / Results – CO2 Affects Temperature Temperature CO2 Temperature Variation Range is about 10 °C “Does CO2 Correlate with Temperature History?” A. Watts, Wordpress.com, after Shakun, Nature, 2012 400 8 °C
- 6. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 ALASKA Columbia Glacier ONLY SIX Years Apart Columbia Bay, Alaska – Photographer James Balog, Nat. Geo. magazine: Extreme Ice Survey of 18 Glaciers The most extreme: Columbia Glacier is losing one mile every three years – so two miles of loss are shown below. Since 1980, this glacier has lost height equal to the Empire State Building! 2006 2012
- 7. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 NOAA states, “CO2 levels are at the highest concentrations in over 400,000 years” Research Objectives Atmospheric CO2 Avg. Earth Temperature Sea Level
- 8. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Jim Hansen’s Table of Vostok data points for 400,000 years
- 9. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Hansen Formula for CO2,Temperature, and Sea Rise • Formula becomes nonlinear past 500 ppm CO2 as global temperature response lessens • In 2009, Dr. Solomon (NOAA) projected 4 – 5 °C by 2100, assuming a CO2 peak at around 2100 – wishful thinking 711 Gt • Hansen’s Formula prediction of 6 °C by 2100 will continue to increase if business as usual 2100s
- 10. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Sea Encroachment After 2100 in Major Cities London, circa 2150 Expected Sea Level RATE of rise is about 2.5 meters per century, from last interglacial period (New Sci., July 6, 2019, p. 39) RED = at sea level, GREEN = 4 – 5 m above sea level
- 11. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Research Approach/Methodology Rothman, Sci. Adv., Sept., 2017 Nov. 6, 2019 CNN
- 12. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 World Population Growth – conservative est. Rate of growth 2100 Population size – 11 billion humans 2018 Population size – homo sapiens 1950 Population size – 2.5 billion people Rate of growth PEAK Global population has tripled (3x) since 1950; CO2 emissions have quadrupled (4x); and global energy demand has quintupled (5x), all in the same time period.
- 13. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Phase change insulation is a vital adaptation technique for the immediate future and beyond. InsolCorp leads the industry with InfiniteR insulation only one centimeter thick has 100 BTU/ft2 of energy storage, 314 Watts/m2 of energy. Western Colloid Fluid – Cool Roof System • High Reflectivity • Reduces energy costs by 30% Solutions, Suggestions, Adaptations besides renewables Choose you preferred TEMPERATURE for the phase change. It will maintain that temperature INDOORS (+/- 2 °F) while the outdoors swings wildly with 100 °F hot and 20 °F cold. Like ICE, it freezes and thaws at the chosen TEMPERATURE above.
- 14. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Conclusion and Outlook Sept. 26, 2019 Wash. Post, Nov. 2019 How to make a carbon tax popular Politicians are cautious but a survey of 3000 people in the US found attitudes to it are positive if the money raised goes toward renewable energy or is redistributed to people as a rebate. -Sci. Adv., Sept., 2019 doi.org/dbqd Can we stabilize CO2 to 350 ppm or lower?
- 15. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Negative Emissions and Carbon Sequestration “Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda” (2019) National Academies Press www.NAP.edu/10766 FREE download (PDF)
- 16. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Carbon Capture & Utilization (CCU) or Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) in Gigatons? “Pulling CO2 out of the air and using it could be a trillion-dollar business” Put CO2 to work making valuable products. www.vox.com/energy-and-environment 1 ppm CO2 = 2 Gt Carbon = 7.77 Gt CO2 THE HANSEN CHALLENGE Can we REDUCE the CO2 level to lower temperature ? YES, it is reversible! • Choose 350 ppm (+3 °C) as the target CO2 level just to lower temperature • Calculate gigatons (Gt) to remove in total if done today • Take present 410 ppm – 350 ppm = 60 ppm which is equal to 466 Gt CO2 • However, every year an average of 5 ppm CO2 or +40 Gt/yr will be added (in A2) • Therefore, any Global Carbon Reduction Program will require CCS-CCU to invest enough to remove say, 100 Gt/yr for 10 years and 50 Gt/yr after, until the hoped-for carbon emission rate peaks and a century later, the emissions slow down, level off, as population has done globally Carbon Engineering out of Calgary, Canada Tested Direct Air Capture (DAC) for CCU, CCS Polymer absorbs CO2 from air NCSU.edu
- 17. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 Transformative Zero or Negative Emissions Tech Carbon Engineering – very low-carbon fuels, powered by renewables, using CO2 from the air, drawing hydrogen from electrolysis to produce hydrocarbons. The company calls the process “air to fuels,” or A2F, and it is targeting wide commercialization in 2021. “A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere” DAVID KEITH ET AL., JOULE, VOLUME 2, ISSUE 8, P1573-1594, AUGUST 15, 2018 Estimates low cost can be around $100/ton of CO2 presently $50 billion/yr for 50 Gt/yr @$1/t HyTech is targeting a big market – diesel engines – the source of 50% of urban smog, especially in winter Onboard electrolyzers are the game plan for turning existing diesel engine fleet into zero-emissions vehicles (ZEV) by making them run on pure hydrogen. -- HyTech Power, based in Redmond, Washington end of slideshow
- 18. 15 - 16 November 2019 IEEE ISTAS 2019 Copyright 2019 Authors IEEE ISTAS 2019 NOTE: 1) The 32-page article “Predictive Connection for 2100 between Atmospheric Carbon, Global Warming and Ocean Height Based on Climate History ” by Thomas F. Valone, Int. J. Env. & Climate Chg., Oct. 2019 is at www.tinyurl.com/ValoneClimate to make it easy to remember, as an open access publication. 2) This IEEE ISTAS Climate Slideshow (PDF) is also posted conveniently at https://tinyurl.com/ValoneClimateSlideshow (Either www or https:// as the prefix will work)