Varun Beverages Ltd

Varun Beverages
Ltd.
Strong Investment Picks - “Accumulate” - Horizon of
3-4 Years with potential upside of 70-80%
Date - 20-December-2017

VBL Background
 Incorporation Year: 1995
 Sector: FMCG
 Main Business: Manufacturer of Soft Drinks.
 Chairman: Ravi Kant Jaipuria
 Group: RJ Corp. Group
 Financial Year End: December.
 IPO Listing Date: 8th November, 2016.
2

VBL Background
3
Source: VBL's investor presentation & Annual Report

VBL Snapshot
4
Source: Ace-equity

VBL History
 Varun Beverages is one of the largest franchisee in the world (outside USA) of
carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold
under trademarks owned by PepsiCo. It produces and distributes a wide range of
CSDs, as well as a large selection of NCBs, including packaged drinking water.
 PepsiCo CSD brands produced and sold by VBL includes, Pepsi, Diet Pepsi,
Seven-Up, Mirinda Orange, Mirinda Lemon, Mountain Dew, Mountain Dew
Game Fuel, Seven-Up Nimbooz Masala Soda, Seven-Up Revive and Evervess.
PepsiCo NCB brands produced and sold by it include Tropicana Slice, Tropicana
Frutz (Lychee, Apple and Mango), Nimbooz as well as packaged drinking water
under the brand Aquafina. In addition, the company has also been granted the
franchise for Ole brand of PepsiCo products in Sri Lanka.
 The company has been associated with PepsiCo since the 1990s and has over two
and half decades consolidated its business association with PepsiCo, increasing
the number of licensed territories and sub-territories covered by it, producing and
distributing a wider range of PepsiCo beverages, introducing various SKUs in its
portfolio, and expanding its distribution network. The company has also been
granted the franchise for various PepsiCo products for the territories of Nepal, Sri
Lanka, Morocco, Mozambique and Zambia. 5
Source: Ace-equity

VBL Products
6
Source: Co. website

VBL's Journey
7
Source: Annual Report

VBL Presence
Global Presence India Presence
8
Source: VBL investor presentation

VBL Plants
9
Source: Co. Website

VBL’s Business Segment
 CSD: Pepsi, Seven-Up,
Mountain Dew, Mirinda
& Everess.
 NCB: Tropicana Slice,
Seven-Up Nimbooz,
Tropicana Frutz.
 PDW: Aquafina.
10
Source: Co. Annual Report

VBL's Profile
11Source: VBL Investor Presentation

Symbiotic Relationship with PepsiCo
12
Source: VBL Investor presentation

Sales & Distribution Channel of PepsiCo
13Source: Slideshare

Sales & Distribution Channel of
PepsiCo (Contd.......)
 Company: PepsiCo India provides concentrates to all the bottling plants in the
Country.
 COBO: Company owned bottling operations, operating directly under the
company. Out of 32 bottling plants, PepsiCo owns 15.
 FOBO: Franchisee owned bottling operations. VBL has 17 bottling plants in the
country.
 Warehouses: Company or Franchisee owned warehouses spread over various
locations. Stocks are sent from the bottling plants to these warehouses, from
where they are sent to the C&F centres and distributors.
 C&F Centre: Biggest centre in the distribution network and receive proper
assistance from the company (either FOBO or COBO). The C&F centre is owned
by a private player and not by the company. The delivery vans are owned by the
company and the salesman at the C&F points are on the company payroll.
 Distributors: Everything at the distributor point owned and managed by the
distributors, even the salesperson are on the distributors payroll.
14

VBL and PepsiCo Agreement
 PepsiCo provides trademarks and bottling rights to VBL.
They collectively fall under the term 'PepsiCo Agreements'.
 PepsiCo reserves the rights to terminate the agreement with a
written 2 month's notice.
 PepsiCo India / PepsiCo Inc. and / or the PepsiCo
International Entities reserve the rights for themselves and
authorized third parties to undertake the production, sale and
distribution of beverage products for the relevant territories
and sub-territories. Historically, VBL has been the sole
franchisee and licensee with respect to it's licensed territories
ans sub-territories.
15

Key Points of the Agreement
 Concentrates: As per the agreement, VBL purchases concentrates
from PepsiCo or PepsiCo approved manufacturers at a price and terms
& conditions set by PepsiCo from time to time. However, to
encourage promotion PepsiCo India allows price discount from time
to time.
 Royalty: VBL only pays royalty to PepsiCo for use of trademarks for
Aquafina and Everess. Licenses for other products falls under the
PepsiCo agreement and hence no royalty is needed to pay.
 Immediate termination: Certain ground rules are in place by
PepsiCo, which if not followed by VBL may result in immediate
termination. Some of the conditions are as follows: 1) if promoters
cease to be in control of the company. 2) production is closed for
consecutive 30 days without the approval of PepsiCo etc.
16

Soft Drink Industry - Global
 The soft drink market majorly comprises of bottled water, carbonates,
packaged juices, ready to drink tea and coffee.
 In terms of per capita consumption of soft drinks, Asian and African
economies are well behind mature markets like US and Germany. The per
capita consumption in US and Germany is expected to go down in the
next five years. Both US and Germany show a largely downward
trend while in Asian and African economies per capita consumption
of soft drinks is expected to grow substantially.
 Bottled water, carbonates and juices consumption are largely
expected to follow a similar trend in the Asian and African markets as
the overall soft drink consumption.
 Per Capita Consumption of USA is 1496 bottles and 391 bottles
worldwide. Worldwide per capita consumption is expected to reach 434
bottles by 2021.
17

18
Source: VBL Investor Presentation

19
Soft Drinks Consumption CAGR Carbonates Consumption CAGR
Bottled Water Consumption CAGRJuices Consumption CAGR

Soft Drink Industry - India
 Per Capita Consumption of India is 44 bottles.
 Per litre consumption is expected to reach 18.4 litres by 2020.
 The industry is growing at a CAGR of 16% from 2011 to 2016.
20
Source: Investor Presentation

21

22
Soft Drinks
Market
99%
Tea-Coffee
Market
1%
Beverages Market
Soft Drinks Market
Tea-Coffee Market

Soft Drinks Industry - India
Distribution Channel
 Off-Trade Channel: includes
bars, restaurants. It is very easy
for company to penetrate the
market with this channel.
 On-Trade Channel: includes
grocery shops, supermarkets
etc.
Territorial Trends
 North India: It has been the second
largest market in terms of total volume
of sales. However, in the off-trade
channel North India took the lead in
total sales volume.
 East & Northeast India: It has the
lowest level per capita consumption
within the soft drinks drink industry.
The reason for this is that leading soft
drink players give it less priority due
to difficult terrain, as it makes
transportation difficult.
23

Soft Drinks Industry - India
 West India: Largest overall market for stock market in India. It ranks first in
terms of total volume of sales. In off-trade channel, the share of West India is
substantially higher.
 South India: People of South India are more inclined towards juice due to
rising health consciousness. Also, IT hubs of the country i.e. cities like
Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai, have long erratic working hours hence, the
consumers are leaning more towards energy drink consumption.
24
Source: DRHP of VBL

 The industry is seasonal.
 Their main period is from April to June. This is also reflected in their sales.
 In the below figure, it shows that maximum sales is during Quarter-2. (the
co. follows the calender year, hence, Q2 as per calender year i.e. from
April to June)
25
Source: Investor Presentation

26
P
O
R
T
E
R
F
I
V
E
F
O
R
C
E
S
A
N
A
L
Y
S
I
S
Threat of
Competitors:
Intense rivalry b/w
Pepsi and Coke and
hence there will be a
downward pressure on
prices.
Threat of New entrants:
- Biggest deterrent is the BRAND NAME.
- Heavy start-up costs.
- Access to distribution channel as both
coke & Pepsi maintain good relations with
their channel partners.
Bargaining Power of
buyers:
- bottlers, retailers &
distributors have greater
bargaining power than
the consumer.
- Large retailers such as
Reliance, Big Bazaar
extract profits from the
company through
incentives such as
volume-based
purchases and so on.
- Bargaining power of
consumer is low, as no
one individual can
effect the profit of the
manufacturer.
Bargaining Power
of Suppliers:
- few suppliers for
entire industry, but
the end product is
comprised of few
ingredients, which
are largely
commodities.
- it is important for
the supplier contain
whatever bargaining
power they have.
Threat of Substitutes:
- many substitutes to products.
- challenge lies in creating brand loyalty in substitute
markets.
- negligible switching costs.
-In India, local beverages like tea & nimbu-pani also
pose a threat.
P
E
P
S
I

VBL - Investment Rationale
 Ease of obtaining Raw Material: The main key component i.e. the 'concentrate' is provided
by PepsiCo or PepsiCo approved manufacturers, at a fixed cost determined by PepsiCo
itself.
 Backward Integration: The company is doing backward integration of facilities for
production of preforms, crowns, corrugated boxes & pads, plastic crates and shrink-wrap
films to ensure optimal quality standards.
 Latest Acquisition: The company recently completed acquisition of franchisee states of
Odisha and parts of Madhya Pradesh along with 2 manufacturing units at Bargarh(Odisha)
& Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh). With this, the company has expanded its footprint to 18 states
and 2 union territories.
 Growth Opportunities: Bottled water expected CAGR 19.8% by year 2021,provides
significant growth opportunities. Non-carbonated beverages (NCB) is also expected to grow
at CAGR of 16.9% by year 2021, as people become more health conscious. Since, lemonade
and soda are used as mixer in drinks (alcoholic or non-alcoholic), its' use is expected to
grow over a period of time as people working in metropolitan cities have erratic working
hours and their use of drinks (energy or otherwise) increases.
 Regional: The company has maximum presence in North India and is slowly moving
towards other regions. With the company increasing its footprint across India, the growth
opportunities are tremendous. 27

VBL - Investment Rationale
 Major Player in the Industry: VBL is the sole distributor of Pepsi in India. So,
the company doesn't face any competition from other franchisees'.
 IPO: The company is repaying its debt from the funds gained in the public issue.
This can have a positive effect on the PAT margins.
 Launched New Products: The company has launched 2 new products:
1) Pepsi Black: a zero calorie flavor CSD product currently available in
250ml cans and 250ml glass bottles.
2) Sting: It is a carbonated energy drink available in 250ml cans and
bottles. The drink is said to be in competition with Red Bull. Where a
250ml can of Red bull is available at Rs. 110, a Sting energy drink can of
250ml is available at only Rs. 50.
 Franchisee Model: The company promoters are in the franchisee business, so
they are well versed with the needs of this type of business model.
 Competition: As there are no other distributors of PepsiCo besides VBL, the
company doesn't face competition for manufacturing and distribution of Pepsi.
28

VBL - Risks
 Seasonality & Cyclicality: The business of the company is highly seasonal as the
major business period is between April to June. Also, a cyclical downturn can
lead to slowdown in the markets. If the company offers lower price, then it
affects the revenues.
 Business Agreement Risk: VBL solely relies on its agreement with PepsiCo.
Termination of the said agreement can adversely affect the company.
 Regulatory Risk: Regulations on consumer health and the risk of negatively
targeting of VBL products for packaging waste recovery may adversary affect
their business.
 'Concentrate' Pricing Risk: PepsiCo determines the price of the concentrates sold
to VBL. So, if this right is negatively exercised by PepsiCo then it would affect
the business interest.
 Consumer Preference Risk: This risk is inherent in this business. Also, with high
competition from Coca-Cola, the company has to be on point with its selling &
distribution strategy but in the end it is the consumer's preference which becomes
the deciding sales factor.
29

VBL - Risks
 Raw Material: Sugar accounts for nearly 33% of the raw material
needed to manufacture the final product. If the prices of sugar increase
or decrease then the PAT margin is affected accordingly.
 New Product Preference: As discussed earlier, consumer preference is
key to capturing the market. VBL has a lot of new products lined up for
the coming year, so if these products manage to entice the consumers
then the company stands to gain market share as well as rise in
revenues and EBITDA margins.
30

VBL - Valuations
31

VBL - Valuations
32
38.83
27.56
19.36 20.02 20.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cash Conversion Cycle
(days)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
2012
2014
2016
S&D Expense
(in crore)
VBL
 Company's cash conversion cycle is getting shorter which is good for the company, as the company
is collecting its accounts receivable faster.
 Company's Debt/Equity ratio is steadily decreasing as the company is paying of its debt and is
expected to go down even further with more debt repayment. Current D/E is 0.86x
 Company's ROCE is steadily increasing for the past 5 years at a CAGR of 17.7% (approx.)
 ROE is volatile but the PAT margins are clearly increasing and along with the decrease in leverage.
Description 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
PATM(%) 3.54 2.86 -0.75 -1.72 1.26
Sales/Total Asset 0.94 1.01 0.9 0.85 0.78
Asset/Equity 4.56 21.02 19.71 15.96 14.88
ROE(%) 15.11 60.84 -13.21 -23.27 14.63

VBL - Final View
 At the current market price of Rs. 535.15, the stock is trading at a TTM
P/E of 50.69, Price/Book Value of 5.17 and EV/TTM EBITDA of 13.33,
we strongly recommend our investors to accumulate at every dips. On
valuations parameters VBL may seem high but the company has a
franchisee business model and its promoters are experienced in the
franchisee business. VBL commands a premium as it is the sole
distributor of Pepsi beverages product in India. The company also has a
new energy drink product lined up called 'Sting' which has a pricing
advantage over its competitors.We also believe that the company may
acquire some new franchisee rights in the near future and possible
renewal of exing franchisee rights, indicating high growth potential. We
believe the upside potential of this stock is 70% - 80% with a long-term
horizon of 3-4 years.
33

Disclosure Name: Jainam Wealth Email id: jainamwealth@gmail.com Ph. No.: 0261- 6725555
 Analyst ownership of the stock: No
 Analyst Certification: The Analyst certifies that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject
security and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.
 Disclaimer: Jainam Wealth offers independent equity research services to retail clients. SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014,
Registration No. INH000003218. This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any
investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Jainam Wealth is not soliciting any action based upon it. This document is provided for
assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The views expressed are those
of analyst and the firm may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. The report is based upon information that we consider
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. Jainam Wealth or any of its affiliates
or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the
information contained in this report. Neither the Firm, nor its employees, agents nor representatives shall be liable for any damages whether
direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use
of the information. Jainam Wealth or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any
kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchant-ability, fitness for a
particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. Jainam Wealth and/or its
affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. Jainam Wealth has
incorporated adequate disclosures in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the
report. Jainam Wealth has made an application with SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst)
Regulations, 2014. Jainam Wealth or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of
more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Jainam
Wealth or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company/third party covered by Analyst ever. Jainam
Wealth/analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market-
making activity of the company covered by Analyst. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on Jainam Wealth by any
regulatory authority impacting Equity Research Analysis. The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly and
believed to be true. Investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment
decision.
34

Varun Beverages Ltd

More Related Content

What's hot (20)

Similar to Varun Beverages Ltd (20)

More from tdjariwala (14)

Recently uploaded (20)

Varun Beverages Ltd