Visualizing the Navy Planning Process
- 1. Originally published in MOC Warfighter
- 2. Introduction Welcome to this slidedoc, a combination of article and slide presentation. This slidedoc contains material from an article originally published in MOC Warfighter, a US Naval War College publication.
- 3. Planning The military planning system provides a structured process through which contributions from the staff, as well as superiors and subordinate units, enable the Commander’s intent to unfold and become effective. Visual displays, in the form of diagrams explaining the steps in the process as well as serving as the resulting plans (often in the form of Power Point presentations) play an important role. As the Naval Warfare Publication 5-01 Navy Planning puts it, “Military planning, and by extension, Navy planning, is the process by which a commander (CDR) visualizes an end state as well as the arrangement of potential actions in time and space that will allow the realization of that future.” Checklists, decision support matrixes, tables articulating risks and other tools visually displaying planning process elements are central to planning process execution. In addition, visual tools concerning the process itself can facilitate education, training and execution of the Navy Planning Process (NPP).
- 4. Military planning is both complicated, with many different parts, and complex, consisting of parts interacting in multivalent ways. However, these diagrams often portray the planning process as linear, which fails to communicate the complexity of the process. This linear bias appears not only in descriptions of the planning process itself, but in the plans that the process generates. For example, plans proceed along “Lines of operations” visually represented in Figure II-13 of JP 5-0 and “Lines of Effort” shown in Figure III-14 of JP 5-0. Some processes are represented as circular lines, (such as in Figure III-17 Phasing Model). As an alternative, the following NPP charts are examples of what Herbert Simon in his Science of the Artificial referred to as “external memory structures” to assist planners in producing effective plans dealing with complex, unstructured problems in highly dynamic environments. Planners are like the architects Simon describes as the prototypical designers “in a semantically rich task domain”. For architects, Simon explains, “The emerging design is itself incorporated in a set of external memory structures: sketches, floorplans, drawings of utility systems, and so on. At each stage in the design process, the partial design reflected in these documents serves as a major stimulus for suggesting to the designer what he should attend to next. This direction to new subgoals permits in turn new information to be extracted from memory and reference sources and another step to be taken toward the development of the design.” Put in the language of the Navy Planning Process, the diagrams serve as planning process charts, on which the significance of the orders, decision matrixes, command and control diagrams, wargaming result templates, briefs and others products (external memory aids) are indicated as navigation aids guiding the planning group through the process. The process, unfolding along a spiral, in which inputs, outputs, planning team tasks and feedback continuously influence and are influenced by activities and products taking place above and below the level at which the team is currently focused is respected on the charts. Complex and Complicated
- 5. Thangka as model The diagrams thus function like the thangka, ornate paintings of Buddhist iconography from Nepal and Tibet. Thangkas serve as references to guide contemplative experience. (See figure 1). Similarly, the NPP charts are concept maps of the planning process, reminding Operational Planning Team (OPT) members of the activities they must accomplish, the inputs and outputs associated with those activities, feedback required and the steps above and below each level of the process which they must inform and be informed by.
- 6. Two different functions These charts function differently for different users. For those new to the planning process they can provide a synoptic vision of each step, informing detailed study of the NWP 5-01. Experienced planning team members can use the charts in two ways. One, they can use the charts to provide an initial bearing accelerating the development of their individual mental models as they work together to help the commander unfold his or her understanding in a way that will enable the dispersed units to internalize the Commander’s intent. Two, the charts can serve the planning team as an awareness and synchronization tool. The charts, placed on the walls in the planning space, enable quick checks on the step in the planning process that is the current focus of discussion, allow for indication of taskings to specific individuals, and chart annotations indicate, for example, potential development of, completion of or the need to re-examine a specific activity. They also provide the commander a rapid insight into the status of the planning effort – with a glance the commander can see where the OPT is in the process and where his or her immediate input is required. Summary vision of each step Synchronization tool
- 7. The Navy Planning Process as an exercise in sense making Figure 2 portrays the Navy Planning Process as an exercise in sensemaking through cultivating understanding among the commander, the staff, and the superiors and subordinates of that staff in order to enable effective command in highly dynamic environments. The chart portrays the steps of the planning process (Mission Analysis, Course of Action Development, Course of Action Analysis (wargaming), Course of Action Comparison and Decision, Plan or Order Development, and Transition) as ascending in a conical helix. Gains in understanding appear as increases in elevation and the expanding diameter of the spiral indicates a broader and broader grasp of the dynamic environment and actors within that environment.
- 8. 1. Mission Analysis 3. Course of Action Analysis (Wargaming) 6.Transition 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5. Plan or Order Development 2. Course of Action Development Understanding N a v y P l a n n i n g P r o c e s s
- 9. 0 3 2 1 FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s N a v y P l a n n i n g P r o c e s s + Progress +Time+ Products + Understanding Missio n Analys is Design Course of Action Development Course of Action Comparison and Decision Wargaming Plan or Order Development Transition 4 5 6 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.CourseofAction Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.Planor Order Development 6. Transition
- 10. The Hermeneutic Spiral Figure 3 is a simplification of Figure 2. The conical helix becomes an Archimedean spiral to better show the relationships between the inputs, tasks, outputs and feedback components of the process, and the production costs in time and attention as compared to the products and understanding the process yields. This view illustrates that, for example, the application of design pushes the understanding curve to the left, providing a jump start in understanding at a low cost in time and attention. The charts also help make planners aware of the potential tradeoffs among time, attention, products and understanding by offering a visual way to think through alternatives that can generate the required outputs while compensating for an externally imposed reduction in, for example, the time available to produce the plans, as often happens in crisis action planning.
- 11. 0 3 2 1 FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s N a v y P l a n n i n g P r o c e s s +Progress +Time + Products + Understanding Mission Analysis Design Course of Action Development Course of Action Comparison and Decision Wargaming Plan or Order Development Transition 4 5 6 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition
- 12. Reading the External Memory Structures Figure 4 provides guidance on how to read the following charts. The charts are divided into four sectors and flow clockwise, starting from the upper left Inputs section, through the Tasks, to Outputs to Feedback. The Outputs are enriched by Feedback, from both the commander and staff elements like the Assessment cell, prior to become Inputs for the next higher phase of the planning cycle. Each chart sector is read from top to bottom. This entails that products at the lower left hand corner of the chart are the product of both the Output and Feedback processes.
- 13. FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s Mission Analysis Briefing WARNORD Design products Environmental understanding Wicked, complex problem definition Operational approach Commander Initial Planning Guidance Initial Commander’s intent Design products Understand Commander’s mind Review commander’s initial planning guidance Analyze higher commander’s mission and intent Develop proposed updates to commander’s intent and critical information requirements Understand Self (own forces and partners) Identify command relationships Analyze available forces and assets Determine friendly COG and decisive points Conduct initial risk assessment Understand Mission Identify sources of mission Determine specified, implied, essential tasks State operation purpose Identify facts and develop planning assumptions Develop proposed mission statement Commander’s comments on Mission Analysis Briefing Mission statement Commander's intent Commander’s planning guidance Updated initial staff estimates M i s s i o n A n a l y s i s + Attention Understand Environment Receive IPOE brief Identify externally imposed limitations Determine critical factors and decisive points Conduct initial risk assessment +Time + Products + Understanding Staff Initial staff estimates Higher Headquarters Plans, orders and guidance Intelligence products Staff Estimates Commander’s Critical Information Requirements Subordinate’s and superior’s feedback on WARNORD Assessment Team input on fit between WARNORD and environment 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.CourseofAction Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition Start Here Read Down
- 14. Uroboros The stylized uroboros (placed at an angle to show the gain in understanding elevation) in the upper right corner indicates the step of the planning process the chart portrays, and the uroboros in the lower left indicates the next step to which the planning team transitions after incorporating the feedback into that step’s products. These smaller diagrams within the chart serve as reminders that the planning process is a dynamical system step function, in which outputs become inputs for the next step, leading to an ascent of the conical planning process helix. 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.CourseofAction Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition
- 15. The Charts The following charts expand each of the six planning process steps in order to better display the relationship between the various planning team activities.
- 16. FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s Mission Analysis Briefing WARNORD Design products Environmental understanding Wicked, complex problem definition Operational approach Commander Initial Planning Guidance Initial Commander’s intent Design products Understand Commander’s mind Review commander’s initial planning guidance Analyze higher commander’s mission and intent Develop proposed updates to commander’s intent and critical information requirements Understand Self (own forces and partners) Identify command relationships Analyze available forces and assets Determine friendly COG and decisive points Conduct initial risk assessment Understand Mission Identify sources of mission Determine specified, implied, essential tasks State operation purpose Identify facts and develop planning assumptions Develop proposed mission statement Commander’s comments on Mission Analysis Briefing Mission statement Commander's intent Commander’s planning guidance Updated initial staff estimates M i s s i o n A n a l y s i s Understand Environment Receive IPOE brief Identify externally imposed limitations Determine critical factors and decisive points Conduct initial risk assessment Staff Initial staff estimates Higher Headquarters Plans, orders and guidance Intelligence products Staff Estimates Commander’s Critical Information Requirements Subordinate’s and superior’s feedback on WARNORD Assessment Team input on fit between WARNORD and environment 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.CourseofAction Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition
- 17. FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s COA Briefing Update IPOE Staff Estimates Commander Mission statement and commander’s intent Commander’s planning guidance and governing factors Compare self and other Analyze relative combat power Recommend Command and Control Relationships COA analysis and evaluation criteria (to inform wargaming) COA Sketches and Statements Commander’s approval of COAs or direction to revise C o u r s e o f A c t i o n D e v e l o p m e n t Create Options for Commander Formulate COA options Staff Adversary COAs Higher Headquarters WARNORD OPORD Initial Operational Assessment Commander’s Intent Staff Estimates Risk Assessment Refine RFF/FRCs Supplemental ROE 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.Planor Order Development 6. Transition 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition TestforValidity COA 1 COA 2 COA 3
- 18. FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s Wargame refined COAs Commander Refined commander’s intent Wargaming guidance Approved COAs Refined Adversary COAs Evaluation criteria and critical events Update IPOE Staff Estimates Wargame Preparation Organize for wargame List all friendly forces Review assumptions List known critical events Select wargame method Select method to record and display results Initial Decision Support Template/Decision Support Matrix Conduct Wargame C o u r s e o f A c t i o n A n a l y s i s ( Wa r g a m i n g ) Wargame records (draft synch matrix)Assess results Conduct risk assessment and mitigation Refine 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition Critical events and decision points Branches and sequels for development Evaluation Criteria Wargame Staff Estimates 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition Most Dangerous Most Likely COA 1 COA 2 COA 3 COA 1 COA 2 COA 3
- 19. FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s WARNORD CONOPS Update IPOE Staff Estimates Present Staff estimates, risk, assessments Final validity test COA Decision Course of Action Comparison and Decision COA Review 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.CourseofAction Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition DST/DSM Synch matrix Staff COA Wargame worksheet COA sketch and narrative Decision Support Matrix Evaluation Criteria -Governing Factors -Weighting criteria Proposed risk controls Perform COA Comparison Summarize Advantages & Disadvantages 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.CourseofAction Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition
- 20. FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t sIssued Plan or Order Prepare Plan or Order Planning Support Tools Commander Approves Order Plan or Order Development Updated OPGENs, OPTASKs, Supplements 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.Planor Order Development 6. Transition Operational Assessment Guidance Staff Task organization CONOPS Staff Estimates Synchronization matrix Operational Assessment OPGENs OPTASKs supplements Reconcile Plan or Order Crosswalk and Update supporting operational directives(OPGENs, OPTASKs, and supplements) Commander Mission Statement Commander’s Intent Crosswalk Plan or Order Refine IPOE Staff Estimates 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.CourseofAction Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition
- 21. FeedbackInputs Tasks O u t p u t s Prepare Transition Briefing Transition Drills Confirmation briefing Subordinate commanders and staff prepared to: Execute the order and possible branches Plan sequels Confirmation Briefing T r a n s i t i o n 1. Mission Analysis 2.Courseof Action Development 3.Courseof Action Analysis (Wargaming) 4. Course of Action Comparison and Decision 5.PlanorOrder Development 6. Transition Running estimates developed Staff Refined IPOE Outline FRAGORDs for branches Information for future missions/sequels Staff Estimates Assessment Framework OPGENs, OPTASKs, supplements CONOPS Synchronization matrix Decision Support Matrix Decision Support Template Commander Approved OPORD/OPLAN Refine Operational Assessment Guidance Transition Briefing Shared Understanding
- 22. ”Naval Planning NWP 5-01." edited by Office of the Chief of Naval Operations. Norfolk, VA: Navy Warfare Development Command, 2013. Simon, Herbert A. The Sciences of the Artificial. Third ed. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996. Staff, The Joint. Joint Publication (JP) 5-0 Joint Operation Planning. Washington DC, 2011. References
- 23. Michael Hallett Website Email For more information about applications of the Navy Planning Process to military or business issues, please contact me. Thank you