Voter targeting
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This document provides guidance on voter targeting for political campaigns. It discusses identifying three types of voters - supporters, opponents, and undecideds - and determining which to target based on the percentages of each. The primary targets are undecided voters who are most persuadable and soft supporters of the opposing candidate. Various methods are described for identifying supporters through phone calls, door-to-door canvassing, and predictive modeling using demographics and past voting behavior. The goal is to secure one's base, target persuadable voters for persuasion efforts, and target marginal supporters for get-out-the-vote activities to reach the threshold for victory.
Voter targeting
- 1. Voter Targeting 401 Joe Fuld- National Committee for an Effective Congress. (These are notes for advanced campaigning) Targeting answers 3 questions: Who is persuadable? Who supports your candidate? Who will vote on election day? Three kinds of voters. Supporters. Opponents. Undecideds. Mathematics of Victory- must (get 50% + 1) 1. Decide what % will give you victory. 2. Start counting with the easiest voters first. (your supporters) 3. If supporters are less than 51%, then go to the next easiest voters (the undecideds). 4. If still not at 51%, you must target soft supporters of your opponent. The primary target is the least persuadable voter that you will absolutely need. If you are at 55%, opponent at 35% and undecided is 10% then turn out your base to win. If you are 30%, opponent is 55% and undecided is 15%, then talk to undecideds. Also talk to your opponent's softest supporters. If you are at 35%, opponent also at 35% and undecideds are 30%, then you must target the undecideds. Use a mix of polling data, instincts and message to find a persuasion target. Identify supporters for GOTV effort in November. Turn out your supporters on Election day thru Get Out the Vote activities. The only way to ID your supporters is to call them, canvas door to door, or to use prediction techniques. Try to add and omit voters with targeting. Find out saints and sinners. Omit your opponent's supporters from your universe. Think of the voter universe as a pie chart. Eliminate some slices and concentrate on others. Three types of voters. Always vote. Sometimes votes. Never votes. Figure out who they are. Which support D, R, L? Ex-Democratic candidate in N.C. He talks to democrats who sometimes, always vote. He also talks to independents. He tries to peel off pro-choice GOP women that always vote.
- 2. Supporter targeting. 1. Phone match may only be 50% of supporters. Also some people you can't reach by phone. 2. Door to door is effective, but it takes much time and money. 3. Predict by using polling data and past election data. You can predict which voters are with you. You can find target demographics to talk to. Demographic targeting uses info from polls. Age, sex, religion, income, etc. You draw inferences. Geographic targetings looks at where voters live. Is someone in your precinct likely to be a persuadable voter? Some districts have more persuadable voters than others. Go to precinct level data. Look at averages, not individuals. Your state's voter file contains both demographic and geographic information. Focus resources on persuadable voters who are less likely to turn out on election day. If someone is a super democrat who votes in every election, including primaries, then you don't need to send him many persuasion pieces. You might ask for donations instead. He will vote for you anyway. Voter ID is accurate but expensive. Most people have figured out how to not answer the phone. Predicting supporters. Look at polling data, party registration and ethnicity. Figure out who supports you. Then figure out who will vote on election day. This helps you figure out targeting for turnout (GOTV). The older you are, the more likely you are to vote. <30 30% vote 30-39 .45% 40-49 60% 50-59 75% vote Why? Older people are more invested in the community. Voting is an acquired taste. Older people don't move as often. They pay more taxes. They have roots now. The first time is the hardest. Political junkies are strange people. If you are reading this, you are a political junkie. Most people don't care very much for politics. They care about issues that effect them, like taxes, schools, healthcare, but not politics itself. How can we make politics relevant to average ...--.., voters?
- 3. Independents are less likely to vote than registered Ds and Rs. The more you have voted in the past, the more likely you are to vote next November. votes in last 4 years % chance of voting zero 20% once 45% twice 70% three times 80% all four times 90% Predict turnout with turnout rates, turnout tables, analyze past elections. Age and length of registration. Voter history. You might want to target independents who voted in at least 3 of the past 4 elections. 1. contact likely voters with persuasion pieces (mail, phone calls, canvassing) 2. contact marginal supporters and urge them to go to the polls. Persuasion targets are 1) highly likely to vote but still undecided, 2) soft supporters. GOTV targets are marginal voters who are likely to support your candidate. Some targeting tools are voter file, poll results, past elections, and your own instincts. Do a benchmark poll. Figure out who your targets are. For example, pro-choice GOP women. Then use the voter file to find them. State party might have this info. Might have to buy lists. A pro-gun candidate may do a pro-gun mailing to people with hunting licenses. Get the state's hunting license list and match it to the voter file. Even with TV ads, one media market may have more democrats than another. Find out the soft areas and hit them with TV ads. Use direct mail in areas where you aren't using much TV. Voter registration usually isn't done by campaigns. Other groups do this. Very time consuming and costly. Newly registered voters don't usually vote. Let the party or the League of Women Voters register people. You might want to do a targeted voter registration at a gun show, however. Absentee ballots are early voting. They can be targeted. Some people vote a month early. Occasional voters- target them to get out the vote by absentee ballot. This extends their voting window for a few weeks, if they are busy. But most absentee voters vote as soon as
- 4. they get the ballot. Still, you could try to call everyone who registered for an absentee ,-..., ballot. Check every day with the election bureau. They may have a list of chronic absentee voters, whom you could contact a little earlier for GOTV and persuasion. Voter file is based on past elections. Don't forget your coalition. Who is your candidate? What are his issues? Use this to figure out who to target. Example: a conservative pro-life democratic candidate. But opponent is a Gap pro-choice woman. The democrat may target more conservative voters and peel them off. Do a message box and see the differences. You can fill in the gaps in information with instincts and experience working in politics in that state. Secure your base, then go after two targets. You have a persuasion target and a GOTV target. Persuasion target is a frequent voter who waffles on who to vote for. GOTV targets are your supporters who are somewhat unlikely to actually vote. Presidential years have higher turnouts, so there are more persuadable voters in Presidential years. If your base is not engaged, then you have to spend time working your base. Are there more persuadables? Or are there more people in your Sometimes-voting base. Internet is good for targeting your base with email. For persuasion on the internet, try to ,-..., target specific sites with banner ads. Mail and phones are better for persuasion than the internet. In some campaigns the persuasion never stops. Can use GOTV in an entire district if your party's performance is over 65%. You want to reach your voters without activating the opponent's soft supporters. Everyone uses targeting. Press secretary- what to say. Scheduler- where to say it? Field Director- Where to send canvassers door to door?