Vulnerability and change in the global south
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This document discusses taking a spatial approach to analyze rising complexity from issues like population growth, urbanization, climate change, and aging in the global south. It argues that spatial modeling of scenarios can help test intervention options and enhance knowledge sharing. Key challenges covered include rapid urbanization, coastal flooding risks, health impacts of population aging, and developing spatial literacy for 21st century problems. The conclusion advocates that spatial science can help simulate, visualize, and connect analyses of vulnerabilities across interconnected human and environmental systems.
Vulnerability and change in the global south
- 1. Vulnerability and Change in the Global South: A Spatially Informed Approach Hamish Robertson, Doctoral Student, AIHI, UNSW Nick Nicholas, Honorary Research Fellow, ARC, POWH Associate Professor Andrew Georgiou, IAHI, UNSW Associate Professor Julie Johnson, IAHI, UNSW Jo Travaglia PhD, Faculty of Medicine, UNSW
- 2. Contents • Introduction • Managing complexity – risks, hazards and disasters • Urbanisation • Climate change • Population growth and ageing • Spatial literacy for 21st century problems • Example • Conclusion
- 3. Introduction • Taking a spatial approach to rising complexity, interconnectedness and fragility in natural and human systems (risk, hazards, disasters, vulnerabilities) • Modelling scenarios under varying conditions to test options for intervention (non-linear, iterative) • Spatial visualisation and interaction for a global audience • Enhancing knowledge production opportunities and options • A critical view of ‘development theory’ in an inter- connected world
- 4. Risks, Hazards and Disasters
- 5. Japan - 11 March, 2011 Massive Impact and Ongoing Consequences – Long Tail Events!
- 6. Differential Effects: Vulnerable Groups Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/mar/13/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-japan
- 7. Integrated Spatial Monitoring and Visualisation
- 8. NOAA Models Debris Patterns Source:
- 9. Earthquake and Tsunami Debris Reaches Mainland US Source: BBC News US and Canada 7 June 2012 Last updated at 08:29 GMT
- 11. Population Ageing as a Global Phenomenon
- 12. Population – Growth and Ageing • Current estimates suggest 7 billion people and growing • Compositional effects include significant ageing, variable rates of ageing by country and diversification of the aged as a category construct • Ageing already effects the affluent countries but is growing rapidly in ‘developing’ countries with socio- economic differentiation (richer versus poorer) • Population ageing and its effects will diversify and urban-rural effects increase • Epidemiological and treatment impacts are significant – neurodegenerative diseases e.g. Alzheimer’s disease • Important cognitive impacts including communication, resilience and response capacities – e.g. frail elderly
- 13. Global Ageing Trends (IMF)
- 16. Trends in Urbanisation • Urbanisation is continuing at a rapid rate globally with some recent indications pace may be slowing – see World Bank, 2013 • Major growth in number of ‘megacities’ (now defined as 10m+) will reach 37 or more by 2025, a mere 12 years away • Cities make attractive markets but are major consumers of resources and have significant environmental effects – heat islands etc • Quality of life (lives) will be increasingly significant as no domestic economy to fall back on for many immigrants from rural areas
- 18. Caiwuwei Urban Village, Shenzhen
- 19. Global Megacities Source: World Urbanization Prospects, The 2011 Revision
- 20. Major Urban Challenges Source: The Three Ages of Megacities, Ericsson
- 21. Economic, Social and Environmental Consequences
- 22. (In)formalisation and Persistent Poverty Source: The World Bank, 2013
- 23. And the complexities of living in them
- 25. Cities and Coastal Flood Risk
- 26. Climate Change and Volatility • Scope and nature of climatic change • Heat stress on human and natural systems • Air quality and wider pollution impacts • Transport systems and environmental stresses • Water availability, quality, commodification, competition and ownership issues
- 28. Consequences for the Global South Natural catastrophe fatalities were highest in developing and emerging countries in the period 1980–2012 Source: Munich RE 2013
- 29. Spatial Literacy for this Century • Simulation, visualisation and spatialisation • Neogeography and related fields e.g. crowd sourcing • Pervasive spatial technologies including virtual earth environments (e.g. Google Earth) • Conceptual understanding and awareness – don’t look to health care! • Expertise, utilisation and trust (ethical) issues • Knowledge integration – how to link and extend a complex system and break out of knowledge silos
- 30. Conclusion • Space, place and location matter in human contexts including population/ageing, urbanisation and environmental change • The ‘developed’ north and the south are increasingly enmeshed • Vulnerabilities can be simulated, visualised and spatialised for practical purposes • Spatial science offers an over-arching and connecting approach to these important issues
- 31. Run KML file
Editor's Notes
- #20: 2011 approximately 23 megacities totalling , in 2025 an estimated 37 megacities, possibly more