Weather Prediction: History and Math
Download as PPTX, PDF3 likes1,444 views
The document discusses the complexities of weather prediction, highlighting the historical advancements from ancient Babylonians to modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) using advanced supercomputers. It details the role of mathematical equations and models in forecasting, the various types of scales and maps used, and applications of weather predictions in areas such as air quality and tropical cyclone forecasting. Lastly, it emphasizes the integration of climate modeling as an essential tool for understanding climate dynamics and making future projections.
Weather Prediction: History and Math
- 2. The weather is a fantastically complex system, with billions of molecules interacting. This makes predicting the weather an incredibly difficult task, even using the extensive network of weather stations, satellites, and the world’s largest supercomputers.
- 3. History
- 6. 300 B.C. Chinese weather predictions are thought to have taken place in historical times.
- 7. 1400 Leonardo da Vinci built the first basic hygrometer to measure the humidity of air
- 8. 1593 The well- known Italian physicist Galileo Galilei was the first to notice that the density of a liquid changes in proportion to its
- 9. 1643 Italian physicist Evangelista Torricelli invents the barometer to measure atmospheric pressure.
- 10. 1701 Ole Christensen Rømer transformed the thermoscope into a thermometer by adding a temperature scale.
- 11. 1835 Invention of telegraph led to modern age of weather forecasting.
- 12. 1846 The state of weather forecasting at this time was stated quite bluntly by French scientist and Director of the Royal Observatory François Arago: “Whatever may be the progress of sciences, NEVER will observers who are trust-worthy, and careful of their reputation, venture to foretell the state of the weather.”
- 13. 1854 Meteorologica l Department of the Board of Trade was first established, which is better known today as the Met Office. Robert Fitzroy was first appointed
- 14. • Uses the latest weather observation alongside a mathematical computer model of the atmosphere to produce a weather forecast • Met Office is recognized as a world leader in NWP, dating back to the pioneering work of Lewis Fry Richardson after he joined the Met Office in 1913. • NWP is now at the heart of all weather forecasts and warnings as well as much of the research and development undertaken to understand our weather and climate. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP)
- 15. 1952 & 1965 1965 onward s OPERATIONAL NWP FORECASTS AT THE MET OFFICE 197O s GLOBAL EXCHANGE OF WEATHER OBSERVATIONS 1971 IBM 360/195 COMPUTER 1972 10-LEVEL MODEL 1976 1980 s FORECASTER GUIDANCE 1982 GLOBAL CAPABILITY 1985 MESOSCALE NWP 1986 1990 1995 NOWCASTING 2000 SITE SPECIFIC FORECASTS 2003 2005 MOVING THE SUPERCOMPUTER ENSEMBLE FORECASTING 2010 2012 UK CONVECTIVE SCALE MODEL CONVECTION PERMITING ENSEMBLE 2015 2017 THE START OF NWP IN THE UK OCEAN WAVE FORECASTS THE UNIFIED MODEL CHERNOBYL AND NAME CRAY XC40 SUPERCOMPUTER
- 16. • The first part of the Met Office’s latest supercomputer arrived in 2015 and was fully installed by 2017. • It has 460,000 cores which delivers a peak performance of 16 petaflops. It has 2 petabytes of memory for running complex calculations and 24 petabytes of storage for saving data. • The increased power enables even higher resolution forecasts. CRAY XC40 SUPERCOMPUTER
- 17. How Math is Involved
- 18. WEATHER Charts and Graphs Numerical Modeling Water and Temperature Meters Where does Math come in play when studying weather?
- 19. IT’S ALL ABOUT EQUATIONS… To predict the weather, meteorologists have sets of equations based on the land’s geography and starting weather conditions. With this information they can calculate future forecast by entering it into a computer to be processed. The longer the time predicted, the less accurate your prediction will be. MATH HELPS US ORGANIZE… Mathematical equations allows us to combine, average, and solve information. Using equations, geometry, estimating, charts, graphs, and scales we can find answers to weather concerns. Weather and math go hand in hand.
- 20. SOME FUNDAMENTAL EQUATIONS • Horizontal Momentum Equation • Alternative Momentum Equation • Interpretations • Application of Horizontal Momentum Equation to Straight Jet Streak Dynamics • Mass Continuity Equation • Thermodynamic Equation • Derivation of Thermodynamic Equation: Part I • Derivation of Thermodynamic Equation: Part II • Hydrostatic Vertical Momentum Equation • Water Conservation Equations • Simple Water Process Diagram
- 22. • One of the most important techniques for making a forecast is to use weather maps to estimate • You may estimate the speed of movement of air masses, fronts, and high and low pressure systems • Meteorologists have to adjust the forecast for differences in • Latitude • Possible acceleration / deceleration • Intensification of storm systems • Local effects (such as topography, bodies of water, and the urban heat island effect) ESTIMATING
- 23. • Maps are used to locate a place in which the meteorologist is going to forecast the weather for. They also show highs and lows, pressures, intensities, and humidity. • Graphing is used here. • Some maps used in meteorology would include: • Geographical Map • Temperature map • Pressure map • Humidity map • Precipitation map • Forecast High and Low temperature maps CHARTS AND GRAPHS
- 24. • Analyzing past and current weather is a huge part in making a hypothesis for the next weather forecast. Meteorologists must use past information and the weather conditions it took place in, to figure it out. An easy way to organize that information is with Scales. • Kinds of Scales • Synoptic scale: air masses, fronts, and pressure systems • Mesoscale: effects of topography, bodies of water, the urban heat island, etc. SCALES
- 25. • Being able to read the temperatures and pressures is key to organizing weather material. • You may have to measure, temperature, water, and air on many types of scales. READING TEMPERATURES AND PRESSURES THERMOMETER HYDROMETER BAROMETER HYGROMETER ANEMOMETER
- 27. • Air quality forecasting attempts to predict when the concentrations of pollutants will attain levels that are hazardous to public health. • The concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere is determined by their transport, or mean velocity of movement through the atmosphere, their diffusion, chemical transformation, and ground deposition. AIR QUALITY MODELING
- 28. • Tropical cyclone forecasting also relies on data provided by numerical weather models. • Three main classes of tropical cyclone guidance models exist: • Statistical models • analysis using climatology, not based on the physics of the atmosphere at the time • Dynamical models • based on the same principles as other limited-area numerical weather prediction models but may include special computational techniques • Statistical-Dynamical models TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING
- 29. • On a molecular scale, there are two main competing reaction processes involved in the degradation of cellulose, or wood fuels, in wildfires. When there is a low amount of moisture in a cellulose fiber, volatilization of the fuel occurs; this process will generate intermediate gaseous products that will ultimately be the source of combustion. When moisture is present—or when enough heat is being carried away from the fiber, charring occurs. WILDFIRE MODELING
- 30. • Modeling the highly complex shapes of wind- blown, random sea surfaces is fundamental to a wide range of oceanographic problems, which include reflection and transmission of light, exchange of momentum and energy between winds and currents, loading of structures, and ship dynamics. • Various mathematical techniques for modeling sea surfaces are therefore widely used in oceanography and ocean engineering. OCEAN SURFACE MODELING
- 31. • Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. • They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. CLIMATE MODELING