what_is_next _now_ppt
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The document discusses major developments in internet and technology over the past 25 years. It covers the evolution from the early PC internet age to the mobile internet age to current trends. Some key points: - The internet has progressed from basic infrastructure and browsers in the 1990s to today's app economies, cloud computing, and mobile dominance. - Emerging areas discussed include internet of things, artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, smart cars, and wearables. However, many face challenges around standards, costs, and defining killer applications. - Current IT focuses on automation, machine learning, data analytics, and security across cloud environments and enterprise applications. The document questions if recent tech bubbles may be due to hy
what_is_next _now_ppt
- 1. WHAT IS THE NEXT? After 25 years of Internet Booming
- 2. 25 years of internet related developments An Attempted Philosophical Reflection Haobin Zheng
- 3. • The internet infrastructure • IT driven • Smart phone • Computer science(algorithm, open source, programming) • App economy • Share economy • Afterwards
- 4. THE INTERNET (1) TCP/IP technology as the basis starting at 70s by Defense Department Internet Browsers: Netscape, IE (1990 - 2000) Emails: hotmail/yahoo/gmail (1992 - 2000) Internet Access: AOL/Globlenet PC Messenger: ICQ/MSN/Yahoo Messenger/QQ Equipments: Cisco/Juniper/ALU /Huawei(1993 - 2007) VOIP/IP Phone: Cisco/Avaya/
- 5. THE INTERNET (2) Search: Google/Yahoo/Ask/Baidu(1997 - 2005) Online payment: Paypal/支付宝 (2000 - 2010) Social Media: Myspace/Facebook/Twitter/Instgram/Linkedin(2005 - 2015) Ecommerce: Amazon/Ebay/Baidu (1999 - 2015) Online Gaming: Zynga but later Tencent/Microsoft/Sony/EA (2004 - 2015) Online videos: Youtube/Lulu/Letv (2005 - 2013) Web Conference: Webex
- 6. THE INTERNET (3) Online dating: Match/eHarmony/世纪佳缘 Online traveling: Travelocity/Priceline/Orbitz/Ctrip
- 7. THE PC INTERNET AGE(1995- 2005) WHY WAS IT THE TIME? Physical world needs digital connections(revolutionary) Digital communications and transactions dramatically improved productivity and efficiency while lowering cost Technologies ready (TCP/IP, client/servers, PC/Unix, Intel, ASIC, database) Government Silicon Valley
- 8. THE PC INTERNET AGE(1995- 2005) HOW ? Huge wave from 0 to 1 Infrastructure build out took place in <10 years Move transactions and human communications to digital format The world has become cheaper and faster
- 9. MOBILE INTERNET AGE(2005- 2015) WHY Migrate PC experience to mobile Maturity of 3G/4G technologies iPhone makes smart phone as a computer Maturity of components(ARM, display, memory,OS, etc) Continuously improve productivity and efficiency and lowering cost
- 10. MOBILE INTERNET AGE(2005- 2015) HOW ? Apps, Apps, Apps Migrate from PC to Mobile Consumer apps leads while Enterprise laggs Brief pains from PC players: Facebook, MS, Google Enterprise apps are harder to be mobile but coming!!
- 11. MOBILE INTERNET App economy IM (Whatsapp/Wechat/Line etc) O2O: Uber/Airbnb/Many Chinese startups Mobile gaming: Tencent LBS: Square /Apple apps
- 12. IOT Will be bigger than the Internet!! Just like we claim IPv6 will come, we don’t know when IOT will come Various sensors Smart Home: Nest etc Transportation Tracking goods No business model yet
- 13. MOBILE INTERNET AGE(2005- 2015) STATUS Smart phones become commodities Apps saturate(too many and too few great) SP lack motivation to upgrade networks(more expensive) Harder to squeeze productivity, efficiency and cost. Physical movement is dragging (freeway, flight, people)
- 14. CLOUD (2010-2015) Theme: cheaper, easier and faster Squeeze more: IT productivity, efficiency, and cost. Make compute/network/storage as commodity Almost there(AWS as the symbol) Will be painful for many IT people
- 15. CLOUD SECURITY WILL BE THE THEME Cloud Services : AWS/Azure/Google cloud/IBM Cyber security: PAN/Fireeye and many security companies White Box: Big Switch/Mirantis/Picca8 etc SDX: Software Defined XXX(SDN etc) Cloud Storage: Box Big Data: AWS and startups Machine learning: many startups XAAS: SalesForce/Workday
- 16. CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT OF EXISTING IT 2016-? Not complete new Unicorns Open source VC booming last few years Most Software companies
- 17. SOME BREAK DOWNS FOR 2016 Cloud Infrastructure: Cloudera/Zuora/Mirantis/Docusign/Nutanix/Docker/Backet Computing Security: Tenable/Okta/Checkmarx/Illumio/Tanium/CloudFlare/CrowdStr ile/HackerOne Enterprise IM: Slack Video Conference: Blue Jeans Network CRM/CPM: Insidesales/Apttus/Gainsight/Adaptive Insights/6Sense
- 18. SOME BREAKDOWNS FOR 2016 (Enterprise) App: Xamarin/AppAnnie/Twillo/Mixpanel/Similar Web Online payment: Stripe/Payoneer Cloud Services: DigitalOcean(compete with AWS etc) Big Data: Tidemark(smarter splunk)/6Sense/Confluent(Kafka)/AtScale Enterprise Social: Sprinklr/Interana Education: Udacity/Stack Exchange Data Storage: Qumulo/Hedvig
- 19. SOME BREAKDOWNS FOR 2016 SDN: Cumulus Network Database: Mesosphere(Mesos)/Realm OS: CoreOS O2O: Gesoo
- 20. SUMMERY: ARE THESE WHAT SILICON VALLEY IS DOING FOR EXISTING IT? Themes: Security and clouds Digger dipper into existing categories: • Cloud • Securities • Big data • SDN • O2O • Apps • Social(move to enterprise)
- 21. NEW CATEGORIES AFTER 2015 Robotics Virtual Reality: Facebook Oculus/MS/Sangsung/Magic Leap Smart Cars: Google/Tasler Wearables: Apple Watch/Fitbit AI Drones
- 22. WHAT IS DIFFERENT NOW? LOOK BACK: WHY INTERNET WAS BOOMING? Human behaviors mapped into digital Common languages(standards) Collaboration(communication) Protocols (TCP/IP) Open(standard and compliance) Driving toward commodity Everyone(at least average people) can involve/work Collection of efforts and progress Hardware and software vendors follow standard
- 23. WHAT IS DIFFERENT NOW? NEW STUFF: THEY ARE ELITE BUSINESS Not grass root games: They are big player’s game Not necessarily need protocols/standards Not necessarily need common platform(like Android) Much more advanced technologies Might not be single visionary-driving(like Steve Jobs) for revolutionary breakthrough Most like fancy stuff not daily-based-stuff(like smart phone)
- 24. AI WHAT IT IS ? Interest have come back a few times Movie AI a decade ago AIs has been researched for many decades Individualism Very difficult Only elite researchers No standards Improvements and break through are majorly based on algorithms
- 25. AI WHY NOW? AI is needed to solve many problems associated with the progress of internet(perhaps the biggest drive) data analytics Monetize data Some algorithms can be implemented into applications Faster computing makes AI possible Stagnant for many years Human collaboration has been maximized Another example: super smart individual can cause huge progress
- 26. ROBOTICS Another hope to boost productivity Hypes in the 70s and 80s ( in my student age) Fade at 90s when Internet was booming Growing in industrial applications such as manufacturing Some home applications such as iRobots Military robotics will be used at domestic applications
- 27. ROBOTICS Still expensive Can only accomplish specialized task such as floor cleaning Still a nice-to-have category before hitting “must-to- have” critical mass. Hard to define “where do I need a robot”
- 28. VIRTUAL REALITY(VR) Move computer vision to gaggles Complicated technologies combining optics, computer, visions, etc. Interactions of human gestures and computer Applications: Games, Entertainment, Training etc. A big break through for experiences
- 29. VIRTUAL REALITY(VR) Entry barrier is very high(investment) Very few applications Could be a game for big players (FB, MS, Sonny, Samsung etc) User habit (same problem with Google glass) Conditions to boom: 1. Need a killing app as catalyst (Avatar in 3D movies) 2. Maturity of many technologies 3. Need a platform to encourage entry(such as Android, open source hardware etc) 4. Entry barrier lowered to boost competition and innovation
- 30. SMART CARS Some governments might fear of it(HK for example) Possible ultimate driving forces: It is not for convenience but for sharing (do I want to sleep while driving?) Most automobiles are parking 90% times (think about commute cars) Smart cars can reduce car ownership (don’t buy a car any more) lower living cost and help environment (congestions and pollution) Improve life quality (self driving when tired) Improve productivities (work from automobiles)
- 31. SMART CARS Regulations might slow it down Small incremental features are feasible: parallel parking, entering garage etc) Software based feature(software might crash) Semi-auto: think about auto-pilot in airline while you still need a co-pilot to wake up. Who is liable when things break? driver or manufacturer. Still a long way to go? think about many recalls for mature features,: air-bags, brakes, steering.
- 32. WEARABLES Sensors attached to human body + Smart phone Improve health and well being Existing killing apps: wrist bans Will become sophisticated along with components Smart watches, sports wearables(golf, bike, ski, etc), clothes. Simple app has been commodity (Fitbit, Xiaomi ban)
- 33. WEARABLES Now two sub-categories of developments: 1. Sophisticated computer attached to body(Apple watch): U.S. vendors may prevails 2. Specialized commodities( wrist ban, clothes etc): Asian vendors may prevails The biggest question: want or need? Smart watch will be a big hope (many people still want to wear watch) Clothes: Nike and Under Armour will kill most small players Apple watch might not win this time: Do I need so many apps in a watch? Do I want to use the side button to do a lot of things? If iPhone is becoming bigger and bigger, should I used my iPhone to control the watch? Do I want to use my watch to send message, take picture, talk?
- 34. WEARABLES Technologies might not be the bottle necks Need new eco-systems: medicare use case for example. More wearables might become a burden(think about the time you needed to carry pagers and smart phone) If smart watch can consolidate multiple functions, other wearables devices might be redundant.
- 35. REALITY CHECK: WHERE IS IT GOING FROM NOW? Cloud Data Analytics Automation Enterprise Apps catch-up Security every where Machine learning
- 36. THEMES FOR TODAY IT Automation Almost everything needs to be automated Simplicity with management Single pane of class Software driven Leverage software to make change fast and distribute the change out Machine learning Learn changes/events by algorithm, abstract patterns/attack and input to the automation process Intelligence center Collect all information from network/server/storage Process and make decisions
- 37. RECENT BUBBLE BURST Thoughts for FANG tumble 1. Software hypes have gone too fast? 2. Macro: IT spending is adjusting? 3. Time to look at value and fundamental? 4. Incremental from 1 to n?
- 38. QUESTIONS FOR WHAT IS NEXT? Virtual/digital has gone too fast? Physical world is lagging too much? Need time to absorb both the joy and pain? Silicon Valley is moving faster and faster comparing to the rest of the world? How much can we squeeze ourself as human being?
- 39. QUESTIONS FOR WHAT IS NEXT? What else can we share besides cars and house(Uber and Airbnb)? When salary doesn’t go up, does it mean we should consume less? (cheaper cars/computers/food/house etc) If human can not continuously innovate new things, does it mean we should continuously save more or share more? (i.e. new shared economy companies like Uber/Airbnb) If human can not learn new skills fast enough, does it mean we need more services jobs? (entertainment/restaurants for example)
- 40. QUESTIONS FOR WHAT IS NEXT? Has digitalization been accomplished yet? Has O2O been done yet? Will 2016 be a consolidation year? Has software been a hype? Has cloud still been too early a game? Overall, has Tech been a bubble that will be burst this year?