Track Record - Stock Indices | Forex | Fixed Income & Commoditied - WaveTrack's Review 1999

TRack record 1999
March 2000

Peter Goodburn // Wavetrack International
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T h e E l l i o tt W a v e P r in c ip l e

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Th e E l l iott Wave Pr inc iple

wavetrack Track record 1999

Please click on one of the contracts to go directly to the page!

Track Record 1999 . ............................................................................................................ page 3 Stock Indices .......................................................................................................................... pages 30-38
Introduction Dow Jones pages 30-31
S&P 500 pages 32-33
Fixed Income . ...................................................................................................................... pages 4-20 Xetra Dax pages 34-35
German Bund pages 4-8 FTSE 100 page 36
Germany 10yr Yield pages 8-10 Hang Seng page 37
Euribor 3mth page 11 Nikkei 225 Index page 38
T-Bond pages 12-14
US 30yr Yield pages 15-16 Commodities .......................................................................................................................... pages 39-41
Euribor / Bund page 17 Oil page 39
German 10yr / 5yr Spread page 18 Gold pages 40-41
T-Bond / Bund Spread page 19
US 30yr / De 10 yr spread pages 20-21 Track Record 1999 . ............................................................................................................ page 42
US 30yr / US 10yr Spread page 22 Epilogue

Currencies................................................................................................................................ pages 23-29
EURO / US-Dollar page 23
US-Dollar / DMK page 24
US-Dollar / STERLING page 25
US-Dollar / YEN pages 26-27
Sterling / Yen page 28
EURO / CZK Koruna page 29

WaveTrack International GmbH Kanalstr. 14 80538 Munich Germany Phone: +49 (0)89-21 02 07 11 Fax: +49 (0)89-92 18 52 45 E-Mail: services@wavetrack.com www.wavetrack.com 2


introduction { please click to return to Table of Contents }

You’re about to view some of the best forecasts from WaveTrack in 1999. It is not a complete
list by far, but this selection has been chosen because these best illustrate the balance and
symmetry contained within the dynamic waves of the market. Fibonacci calculations which
are religiously employed in combination with wave pattern identification have provided some
insightful moments at key reversal points of the year.

The fact that the system of Elliott’s Wave Theory is timeless in its origin is a testament to the man
who unravelled the complexities of action and reaction processes of stock prices only seventy
years ago. Others before him such as Pythagoras and Aristotle were the keepers of the Ancient
Wisdom of arithmetic, logic and geometry which has been passed down through the ages and
which we blindly use today. P.G.

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{ next page within this chapter }
German Bund { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Bund (bund990126) - Forecast Bund (bund990126) - Result!

The German Bund forecast above turned out to be one of the most significant of the year – note Downside targets calculated towards 11240 and 10895 were achieved three and seven months
that a text book five wave pattern completed an advance from October 1998’s low of 11061 to later!
the January 1999 high. The fifth wave also unfolded into a classical ‘di-agonal triangle’ pattern
providing the timing for an imminent reversal.




Bund (bund990412d) - Forecast Bund (bund990412d) - Result!

From the 11198 low, the Bund begins a counter-trend advance which unfolds into a simple ‘zig high was 11636 – new lower lows eventually unfolded.
zag’ (a-b-c,5-3-5) sequence.
Note the perfect symmetry contained in this pattern – wave a. multiplied by fibonacci ratio
61.8% and added to this high yielded the target for the ensuing reversal at 11648…the actual




Bund (bund991124a) - Forecast Bund (bund991124a) - Result!

Three wave progression both in declines and following advances led to the ‘diagonal triangle’
interpretation in this daily chart of the Bund. Forecasts into new lower lows when prices were
above 10579 in November seemed irrational at the time – following declines led to 10185 being
traded in mid January.




Bund (bund991208) - Forecast Bund (bund991208) - Result!

A fifteen minute bar chart was used to study the Bund unfolding into a short-term ‘irregular In reality, wave [b] hit 10695 then declined as wave [c] which eventually traded at 10615! The
flat’ ( [a]-[b]-[c], 3-3-5 ) pattern within an ongoing advance. At this point, wave [b] was forecast correction over, the price began another advance to a higher high…
to achieve 10703 before a decline began for wave [c] with targets towards 10614.



GermanY 10yr yield { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Germany 10yr Yield (de10yr990107) - Forecast Germany 10yr Yield (de10yr990107) - Result!

The German 10yr yield was still in a long term downtrend when this forecast was made. Wave The reversal occurred at 3.610% and later hit upside objectives at 4.789% in July.
patterns looked for a five wave sequence completing from 4.312% at 3.633% and then stage a
reversal that would begin a substantial advance for yields for months to come.




Germany 10yr Yield (de10yr990816a) - Forecast Germany 10yr Yield (de10yr990816a) - Result!

Longer term trends suggested the German 10yr yield would advance from 3.610% into a simple entire ‘zig zag’ pattern, i.e. 6.405 – 3.610 x 61.8% + 3.610. The actual high for wave (A) completed
‘zig zag’ with ultimate objectives towards 6.405%. at 5.488%!!

The termination for wave (A) at 5.384% was calculated where (A) advanced by 61.8% of the




Germany 10yr Yield (de10yr991124) - Forecast Germany 10yr Yield (de10yr991124) - Result!

Wave III of a ‘diagonal triangle’ is shown unfolding within minor wave v. of the German 10yr
yield chart. Targets were forecast into new highs at 5.633% - by mid January, 5.674% had traded
which began an immediate reversal – note that targets for minor wave v. were calculated by
multiplying wave i. by fib. 161.8%.



euribor 3mth { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Euribor 3mth (ebor990201) - Forecast Euribor 3mth (ebor990201) - Result!

Short term interest rate futures in Germany highlighted the Euribor 3mth completing a five
wave advancing pattern from 94.330 in October 1998 at 97.120 in early January 1999.
The forecast for a subsequent decline of significant magnitude to 96.057 seemed improbable at
the time – but as the right hand chart clearly depicts, decline it did!



t-bond { please click to return to Table of Contents }

T-Bond (tb990413) - Forecast T-Bond (tb990413) - Result!

And now the U.S. Treasuries – the trend was already well established as down by April when Targets to 11506 were calculated where this decline was a 100% ratio of the previous decline
this forecast was made. A three wave advance which unfolded as a ‘zig zag’ correction to 12319 from 12722 – 11909. That ratio provided an almost exact reversal two months later.
was a bright beacon that forewarned of another series of declines to new lows – below 11909.




T-Bond (tb990817a) - Forecast T-Bond (tb990817a) - Result!

An ambitious forecast by any means – the U.S. T-Bond future above is observed as un-folding The final low for wave v. traded exactly to this ratio relationship in January 2000.
into a fourth wave ‘triangle’ with ultimate targets for a fifth into a new lower low. Targets for
wave v. were forecast to unfold to a 100% ratio of wave i. at 10725 basis the September contract
(before coupon change).




T-Bond (tb990817b) - Forecast T-Bond (tb990817b) - Result!

Wave iv.of the ‘descending triangle’ in U.S. T-bonds is examined close-up and drawn subdividing The result was an astonishing portrayal of perfectness – not only did the subdivisions adhere to
into a classical a-b-c-d-e sequence. At this stage in August, wave [b] had just completed at 11309 orthodox ‘zig zags’, but targets traded at every rever-sal point.
and waves [c], [d] and [e] were forecast to subsequently unfold in the months ahead.



US 30yr yield { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US 30yr Yield (US30yr990312) - Forecast US 30yr Yield (US30yr990312) - Result!

Meanwhile U.S. 30yr yields were trending higher – counting from the lows of October 1998 ,
targets were towards 6.353% - a substantial rise given the current level of 5.569%. The result was
the yield advancing to our target in October – and eventually beyond…



US 30yr yield { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US 30yr Yield (US30yr991129) - Forecast US 30yr Yield (US30yr991129) - Result!

…and updating the yield in November suggested the entire advance from the 4.694% low was
unfolding into a five wave pattern. Wave v. was forecast to conclude at 100% ratio to wave i.
towards 6.564% then begin a sharp reversal as the correction begins to exert itself. The high was
recorded at 6.756% and then declined sharply!



EURIBOR / 10yr bund { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Euribor / Bund (Bund991007) - Forecast Eurbor / Bund (Bund991007) - Result!

The Fixed Income spreads also provided some interesting reversals – and confirmation of trends. added to its high provides the target for wave c.
In this example, the 3mth Euribor / 10yr Bund differential clearly emphasises an a-b-c- ‘zig zag’
advance from 0.94 to 1.90 suggesting at the very least a decline (narrowing of yield) thereafter.
Note that the ‘zig zag’ exhibits the 61.8% ratio rela-tionship – wave a. multiplied by 61.8% and



German 10yr / 5yr spread { please click to return to Table of Contents }

German 10yr / 5yr spread (de10y-5y990118) - Forecast German 10yr / 5yr spread (de10y-5y990118) - Result!

The German 10yr/5yr spread labels a five wave decline (narrowing) on this weekly chart from
1.41 to 0.18. An (a)-(b)-(c) ‘zig zag’ counter-trend advance is then forecast to follow, with targets
towards 50% resistance at 0.80 – the result was the spread widen-ing again to 0.89 as shown in
the right hand chart before a reversal at this point re-sumed the trend.



T-bond / bund spread { please click to return to Table of Contents }

T-Bond / Bund spread (bund990201) - Forecast T-Bond / Bund spread (bund990201) - Result!

The monthly chart above compared the Spread on the futures of the T-Bond and the Bund. The This almost exact level finally traded which resulted in a significant reversal…
entire pattern counting from the 1993 low at –23.02 was seen as unfolding into a ‘double zig
zag’ sequence. Waves A and C adhere to 100% ratio relationships to each other with forecasts to
complete towards –2.83.



US 30yr / DE 10yr Spread { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US 30yr / DE 10yr spread (US30y-De10y990819) - Forecast US 30yr / DE 10yr spread (US30y-De10y990819) - Result!

…and continuing this in a yield basis, the reversal level of 1.82% meant that the first A-B-C ‘zig
zag’, when multiplied by fib. 61.8% and added to its high provided the tar-gets for the second
‘zig zag’ and the confidence to forecast a reversal.



US 30yr / DE 10yr Spread { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US 30yr / DE 10yr spread (US30y-De10y990927) - Forecast US 30yr / DE 10yr spread (US30y-De10y990927) - Result!

In the shorter term horizon, the same spread chart of U.S. 30yr / De 10yr yields had just beginning a rapid resumption of trend.
completed a decline (narrowing) in five waves from 1.82% at 0.92%.
An ensuing a-b-c ‘zig zag’ reaction advance (widening) must unfold and here the targets were
forecast towards 1.38%.- the result was a three wave advance to 1.29 and a reversal decline



US 30yr / US 10yr Spread { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US 30yr / US 10yr spread (US30y-US10y990617) - Forecast US 30yr / US 10yr spread (US30y-US10y990617) - Result!

The monthly chart of the U.S. 30yr / U.S. 10yr yield spread revealed a most interesting and Multiplying wave (A) by fib. 61.8% and adding to its high once again provides the forecast for a
contrarian forecast last year. Counting from the 1980 low of –0.71 basis points, the advance conclusion for wave (C) at 1.01. Reversal occurs.
shown above clearly depicts an unfolding ‘zig zag’ with intervening wave (B) as a ‘contracting
triangle’.



EURO / US-Dollar { please click to return to Table of Contents }

EURO / US$ (EURO$990104a) - Forecast EURO / US$ (EURO$990104a) - Result!

From birth, the Euro began life trading soon after its predecessor had completed a suc-cinct Note that wave (a) multiplied by fib. 61.8% and added to this high (11837) provides the exact
(a)-(b)-(c) ‘zig zag’ advance which denotes counter-trend. As a consequence, the Euro /$ rate conclu-sion for wave (c). Forecasts for new lows (below 10595) were realised 6 months later.
continued to depreciate as the trend resumed thereafter.



US-Dollar / DMK { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US$ / Dmk ($Dmk990407) - Forecast US$ / Dmk ($Dmk990407) - Result!

Old habits die hard – maintaining one eye on the Dollar Dmark suggested an equally bullish
forecast for the Greenback with expectations for an ongoing five wave advance to unfold from
current levels of 18099, with targets towards 19794. Targets were achieved in January 2000.



US-Dollar / STERLING { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US$ / Sterling ($stlg990629) - Forecast US$ / Sterling ($stlg990629) - Result!

Sterling / Dollar was forecast to decline towards 15452 as wave c. of an ‘irregular flat’ pattern
(a-b-c, 3-3-5). This target was calculated where the distance travelled for waves b. and c. beyond
the extremities of wave a. are equal. The conclusion for wave c. was finally recorded at 15470 –
the reversal trading as high as 16280.



US-Dollar / YEN { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US$ / Yen ($yen990119) - Forecast US$ / Yen ($yen990119) - Result!

The Dollar had just completed a five wave decline versus the Yen from 14762 to 10824. This
denoted the longer term trend was down, but an interim counter-trend advance would be
needed to unfold beforehand. A fib. 38.2% retracement was calculated to 12328 and was forecast
to lift the dollar temporarily. This target was achieved at 12372 two months later.



US-Dollar / YEN { please click to return to Table of Contents }

US$ / Yen ($yen990219) - Forecast US$ / Yen spread ($yen990219) - Result!

The counter-trend advance for the Dollar Vs Yen began from 10824 and was identified un-folding
as an a-b-c, 5-3-5 ‘zig zag’ with ultimate targets for conclusion towards 12372.
The exact target finally traded at 12372 which provided the reversal point for the resumption of
Dollar declines.



sterling / yen { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Sterling / Yen (StlgYen990105) - Forecast Sterling / Yen (StlgYen990105) - Result!

Sterling / Yen patterns were similar to that of the Dollar. A forecast for the con-tinuation of a Although forecasts were then for a 50% recowvery, the fib. 38.2% area finally resulted in
five wave decline counting from 24088 targeted the v.th wave towards a maximum of 17610. conclusion at 20189.
The actual low recorded was 17679, thereafter the reversal began to advance Sterling in a
countertrend pattern.



Euro / Czk Koruna { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Euro / Czk (EuroCzk990602) - Forecast Euro / Czk (EuroCzk990602) - Result!

The Euro / Czk Koruna was identified as unfolding into a series of three wave ‘zig zags’ within
which contained a ‘contracting triangle’. This forecast a Euro decline from 38.71 to 34.70 during
the year – to date, still unfolding but subsequently reach-ing a low so far of 35.34.



Dow jones { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Dow Jones (DJ990906) - Forecast Dow Jones (DJ990906) - Result!

A minor five wave pattern was forecast to advance in the Dow Jones Index from the 7400.30 low Not only did wave iii. complete at 11750.30 but it also provided the reversal for declines in wave
of September ’98 with minute wave III of minor iii.due for completion at 11463.70. A following iv.
decline resulted in targets being achieved at 9976.- the follow-ing advance also making new
record highs.



Dow jones { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Dow Jones (DJ991008) - Forecast Dow Jones (DJ991008) - Result!

This short-term count for the Dow Jones focused on the decline in wave iv. and recognised it
unfolding as an ‘irregular flat’ (a-b-c, 3-3-5) sequence. Wave c. of this formation was forecast to
unfold as a smaller five wave pattern and trade to a fib. ratio of 200% of wave a. and reach targets
towards 9971.30. The actual reversal point was 9976.00!



s&P 500 { please click to return to Table of Contents }

S&P 500 (SP990219) - Forecast S&P 500 (SP990219) - Result!

During the S&P’s advance last year it paused for breath unfolding into an ‘ascending triangle’ The subsequent advance for wave 5 was almost vertical – as one might expect…
as wave 4 within a 5 wave sequence. The forecast for an advance / decline as waves (d) and (e)
of the triangle proved exact as the index rallied just short of 1290.50, then declined to 1217.10 to
complete the pattern.



s&P 500 { please click to return to Table of Contents }

S&P 500 (SP991026) - Forecast S&P 500 (SP991026) - Result!

…and much later in the year, another pause in the bull run resulted in a counter-trend decline
unfolding into a simple ‘zig zag’ (a-b-c, 5-3-5) from 1420.14 to 1233.66. Note that wave c. of this
pattern subdivided into a rare ‘expanding diagonal triangle’ for-mation – instantly recognisable.
The result was a forecast into new highs…



Xetra dax { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Xetra Dax (dax990212) - Forecast Xetra Dax (dax990212) - Result!

The Xetra Dax was also unfolding into a five wave advance counting from the lows of the late
eighties – and for possible acceleration in wave 5 with targets towards 7793.78. After some
months of range trading, the Dax advanced into new highs and traded at 7812.00 by February
2000…



Xetra dax { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Xetra Dax (dax990506) - Forecast Xetra Dax (dax990506) - Result!

…and in this shorter-term sequence, the Dax was observed unfolding into a ‘triangle’ and wave
d. was forecast to complete towards 5452.80 before a reversal began a decline for wave e. Note
the fib 61.8% ratio again within calculations for wave d. A reversal did begin a decline for wave
e. which finally completed at 4965.00.



ftse 100 { please click to return to Table of Contents }

FTSE 100 (ftse991027d) - Forecast FTSE 100 (ftse991027d) - Result!

The London FTSE 100 Index was diagnosed as unfolding into a multi-year ‘diagonal triangle’
pattern counting from the lows in 1997 at 4382.80. In order to complete this, a forecast was
issued for an advance to 6911.30 but then a major reversal to begin a decline. The result was an
advance to 6950.60 and then a sharp decline!



hang seng { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Hang Seng (Hseng991025) - Forecast Hang Seng (Hseng991025) - Result!

During the bull market advance for the Hang Seng, an Intermediate wave (4) decline began to As you can see from the chart on the right, this reversal was correct and the subsequent advance
unfold from 14531.00 high. It subdivided into a ‘double zig zag’ and measuring each ‘zig zag’ to accelerated exponentially.
one another by a fib. 100% ratio suggested a completion of this decline towards 12066.00.



Nikkei 225 Index { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Nikkei 225 Index (Nikkei990729) - Forecast Nikkei 225 Index (Nikkei990729) - Result!

The Nikkei 225 Index in Japan was also in the process of a five wave advance counting from
12787.00 in late 1998. Wave counting identified minor wave iii.’s completion last summer at
18623.00 and that wave iv. and v. targets were 17324 and 19860 respectively. A decline for wave
iv. did unfold, hitting 16652 before reversing to a new high at 19959.52 in January 2000.



OIL { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Oil (oil990108b) - Forecast Oil (oil990108b) - Result!

Oil was recognised as unfolding into a multi-year ‘contracting triangle’ which began from the The actual low was $10.35 which resulted in a major reversal and our forecasts for wave D
highs in 1981. Cycle wave C’s decline from $41.15 subdivided into a simple ‘zig zag’ (A-B-C, advances to $31.10…achieved in March 2000!!
5-3-5) pattern – multiplying wave A by fib. 61.8% and subtracting from it’s low yielded a target
for wave C at $10.27 (log scale).



gold { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Gold (gold990615a) - Forecast Gold (gold990615a) - Result!

Gold’s decline from the January 1996 high of 418.40 was labeled as unfolding into a conventional The exact target at 251.70 was finally achieved – and even the reversal target of 315.40 (38.2%)
five wave pattern. Intermediate wave (4) unfolded into a ‘contracting tri-angle’ which made was met only weeks later…
measuring the target for wave (5) relatively easy by taking 100% ra-tio of wave (1) and subtracting
from (4)’s conclusion.



gold { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Gold (gold991004c) - Forecast Gold (gold991004c) - Result!

…and during this advance, it became apparent that Gold was unfolding into a five wave Measuring the net advance of waves I-III and multiplying this by a ratio of fib.61.8% and adding
sequence – not a three. Above you can see the count adjusted accordingly and that min-ute wave to the low of IV yielded tar-gets for wave V towards 342.00…wave IV did complete as expected,
IV of this sequence was forecast to unfold into a ‘contracting triangle’ be-fore an acceleration for and 342.00 also pro-vided the exact high for waveV !!
wave V would unfold.



epilogue { please click to return to Table of Contents }

Whether we analyse Bonds, Currencies or Stocks, Wave Theory manifests amongst them all.
These are the characters of the play and the participants are the audience. Each may have a
different character or resonance, working within different time sequences and patterns, but all
are adhering to the script – a script that binds them together ac-cording to Universal Law.

Some of the forecasts have since changed, others not. The extent of Bond price declines combined
with five wave patterning has suggested the necessity to adopt more bearish forecasts for the
long term. Currencies have been mixed and varied – whilst the Dollar continued to advance
against the Euro, it declined against the Yen. What does this mean? Will it continue this way?

And what about the Stock Indices? Is it possible the Dow Jones ignores the action, re-action process
that Wave Theory expounds and instead, continues it’s exponential ad-vance undeterred?

And is there really such a thing as the ‘New Paradigm’ everyone talks about? The word itself
means “…an example that serves as pattern or model…” so why a new one? The new concept
has its advocates because conventional methods and ideas fail to understand the true forces
that work in the markets. That is, until we study other manias of our past history and realise
that these conditions are quite normal. The ‘Old Paradigm’ is alive and kicking but we fail to
recognise it!

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the progress of future price patterns according to this methodology. Whilst it may be reasonable to deduce a course of action regarding investments as a result of such
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