1. Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments. (2023). Peker, Cem.
   In: Theory and Decision.
   RePEc:kap:theord:v:94:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11238-022-09899-4.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2. Convex combinations in judgment aggregation. (2022). Jaspersen, Johannes G.
   In: European Journal of Operational Research.
   RePEc:eee:ejores:v:299:y:2022:i:2:p:780-794.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3. Price discovery and gains from trade in asset markets with insider trading. (2020). Levínský, René ; Brünner, Tobias ; Levinsky, Rene ; Brunner, Tobias.
   In: VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics.
   RePEc:zbw:vfsc20:224618.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

4. MANIPULATION AND (MIS)TRUST IN PREDICTION MARKETS. (2020). Zultan, Ro'i ; Kaplan, Todd ; Choo, Lawrence.
   In: Working Papers.
   RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2012.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

1. Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D., Rietz, T. A., 2008b. Prediction market accuracy in the long run. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2), 283–298.

2. Berg, J. E., Rietz, T. A., 2003. Prediction markets as decision support systems. Information Systems Fron466 tiers 5 (1), 79–93.

3. Berg, J., Forsythe, R., Nelson, F., Rietz, T., 2008a. Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research. In: Plott, C. R., Smith, V. L. (Eds.), Handbook of Experimental Economics Results. Elsevier, Ch. 80, pp. 742–751.

4. Bock, O., Baetge, I., Nicklisch, A., 2014. hroot: Hamburg registration and organization online tool. European Economic Review 71, 117–120.

5. Brown, W. O., Sauer, R. D., 1993. Fundamentals or noise? evidence from the professional basketball betting market. The Journal of Finance 48 (4), 1193–1209.

6. Bruce, R. S., 1935. Group judgments in the fields of lifted weights and visual discrimination. The Journal of Psychology 1 (1), 117–121.
   Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
   
7. Budescu, D. V., Chen, E., 2014. Identifying expertise to extract the wisdom of crowds. Management Science 61 (2), 267–280.
   Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
   

8. Budescu, D. V., Yu, H.-T., 2006. To bayes or not to bayes? a comparison of two classes of models of information aggregation. Decision Analysis 3(3), 145–162.

9. Clemen, R. T., 1989. Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International journal of forecasting 5 (4), 559–583.

10. Davis-Stober, C. P., Budescu, D. V., Dana, J., Broomell, S. B., 2014. When is a crowd wise? Decision 1 (2), 79–101.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    

11. Dohmen, T. J., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Schupp, J., Sunde, U., Wagner, G., 2011. Individual risk attitudes: Measurement, determinants, and behavioral consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association 9 (3), 522–550.

12. Fischbacher, U., 2007. z-Tree: Zurich Toolbox for Ready-made Economic Experiments. Experimental Eco485 nomics 10 (2), 171–178.

13. Gjerstad, S., Oct. 2004. Risk aversion, beliefs, and prediction market equilibrium, university of Arizona, Department of Economics Working Paper 04-17.

14. Gordon, K. H., 1924. Group judgments in the field of lifted weights. Journal of Experimental Psychology 7 (5), 398–400.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    

15. Gruca, T., Berg, J. E., Cipriano, M., 2003. The effect of electronic markets on forecasts of new product success. Information Systems Frontiers 5 (1), 95–105.

16. Herzog, S., Hertwig, R., 2011. The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recogni493 tion. Judgment and Decision Making 6 (1), 58.

17. Jensen, J. L. W. V., 1906. Sur les fonctions convexes et les inégalités entre les valeurs moyennes. Acta Mathematica 30 (1), 175–193.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    

18. Kirchler, M., Huber, J., Stöckl, T., 2012. Thar she bursts - reducing confusion reduces bubbles. The American Economic Review 102 (2), 865–883.

19. Larrick, R. P., Mannes, A. E., Soll, J. B., 2012. The social psychology of the wisdom of crowds. Psychology Press, Ch. 13, pp. 227–242.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    

20. Lichtendahl Jr, K., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Pfeifer, P., 2013. The wisdom of competitive crowds. Operations Research 61 (6), 1383–1398.

21. Lorenz, J., Rauhut, H., Schweitzer, F., Helbing, D., 2011. How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect. PNAS 108 (22), 9020–9025.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    
22. Lorge, Irving; Fox, D. D. J. B. M., 1958. A survey of studies contrasting the quality of group performance and individual performance. Psychological Bulletin 55 (6), 337–372.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    
23. Malone, T., Laubacher, R., Dellarocas, C., 2009. Harnessing crowds: Mapping the genome of collective intelligence. SSRN working paper 1381502.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    

24. Manski, C. F., 2006. Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets. Economics Letters 91 (3), 425–429, revision of NBER Working Paper 10359, March 2004.

25. Noussair, C. N., Tucker, S., 2016. Cash inflows and bubbles in asset markets with constant fundamental values. Economic Inquiry 54 (3).

26. Ottoviani, M., Sørensen, P. N., 2009. Aggregation of information and beliefs: Asset pricing lessons from prediction markets. SSRN discussion paper 1447369.

27. Palan, S., 2015. GIMS - software for asset market experiments. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 5, 1–14.

28. Polgreen, P. M., Nelson, F. D., Neumann, G. R., 2007. Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity. Clinical Infectious Diseases 44 (2), 272–279.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    

29. Powell, O., 2016. Numeraire independence and the measurement of mispricing in experimental asset markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 9, 56–62.

30. Sauer, R. D., 1998. The economics of wagering markets. Journal of Economic Literature 36 (4), 2021–2064.

31. Soll, J., Richard, B., Larrick, P., 2009. Strategies for revising judgment: how (and how well) people use others’ opinions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 35 (3), 780–805.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    
32. Surowiecki, J., 2004. The Wisdom of Crowds. Abacus, London.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
    

33. vanRooij, M., Lusardi, A., Alessie, R., 2011. Financial literacy and stock market participation. Journal of Financial Economics 101, 449–472.

34. Wolfers, J., Zitzewitz, E., 2006. Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities. SSRN discussion paper 898597.

1. Efficiency of the Experimental Prediction Market: Public Information, Belief Evolution, and Personality Traits. (2021). Yang, Chih-Hwa ; Chie, Bin-Tzong.
   In: Advances in Management and Applied Economics.
   RePEc:spt:admaec:v:11:y:2021:i:4:f:11_4_3.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2. The informational content of prices when policy makers react to financial markets. (2019). Siemroth, Christoph.
   In: Journal of Economic Theory.
   RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:179:y:2019:i:c:p:240-274.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3. Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets. (2019). Arnesen, Sveinung ; Strijbis, Oliver.
   In: International Journal of Forecasting.
   RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:408-419.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

4. Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls. (2019). Reade, J ; Williams, Leighton Vaughan.
   In: International Journal of Forecasting.
   RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:336-350.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

5. Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models. (2019). Lin, Hung-Wen ; Tai, Chung-Ching ; Tung, Chen-Yuan ; Chie, Bin-Tzong.
   In: International Journal of Forecasting.
   RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:297-312.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

6. Longshots, overconfidence and efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market. (2019). Rietz, Thomas A ; Berg, Joyce E.
   In: International Journal of Forecasting.
   RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:271-287.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

7. Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements. (2019). Cheah, Jeremy Eng Tuck ; Sung, Ming-Chien ; Tai, Chung-Ching.
   In: European Journal of Operational Research.
   RePEc:eee:ejores:v:272:y:2019:i:1:p:389-405.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

8. Crowd Labor Markets as Platform for Group Decision and Negotiation Research: A Comparison to Laboratory Experiments. (2018). Gimpel, Henner ; Teschner, Florian.
   In: Group Decision and Negotiation.
   RePEc:spr:grdene:v:27:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10726-018-9565-y.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

9. Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries. (2018). Lieli, Robert ; Khan, Urmee.
   In: International Journal of Forecasting.
   RePEc:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:4:p:696-710.

   Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

10. Information aggregation in a prediction market for climate outcomes. (2018). McKitrick, Ross ; Aliakbari, Elmira .
    In: Energy Economics.
    RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:97-106.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

11. It takes all sorts: A heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing. (2018). Restocchi, Valerio ; McGroarty, Frank ; Gerding, Enrico.
    In: European Journal of Operational Research.
    RePEc:eee:ejores:v:270:y:2018:i:2:p:556-569.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

12. Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries. (2017). Lieli, Robert ; Khan, Urmee.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201711.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

13. Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets. (2017). Rothschild, David ; Gimpel, Henner ; Teschner, Florian.
    In: Group Decision and Negotiation.
    RePEc:spr:grdene:v:26:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s10726-017-9531-0.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

14. Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown. (2017). Yannelis, Constantine ; Baker, Scott.
    In: Review of Economic Dynamics.
    RePEc:red:issued:15-289.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

15. Case Article—Canyon Bicycles: Judgmental Demand Forecasting in Direct Sales. (2017). Diermann, Christoph ; Huchzermeier, Arnd.
    In: INFORMS Transactions on Education.
    RePEc:inm:orited:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:58-62.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

16. Information Aggregation in a Prediction Market for Climate Outcomes. (2017). McKitrick, Ross ; Aliakbari, Elmira.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:gue:guelph:2017-02.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

17. Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit. (2017). Fry, John ; Brint, Andrew.
    In: Risks.
    RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:37-:d:105098.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

18. Pre-launch Prediction of Market Performance for Short Lifecycle Products Using Online Community Data. (2017). Matkovskyy, Roman ; Ponnamma, Pradeep Kumar ; Sondergaard, Helle Alsted ; Palmer, Adrian.
    In: Journal of Interactive Marketing.
    RePEc:eee:joinma:v:38:y:2017:i:c:p:12-28.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

19. An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets. (2017). Siemroth, Christoph ; Page, Lionel.
    In: Games and Economic Behavior.
    RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:354-378.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

20. Bedingte Aktiengeschäfte. (2016). Dilger, Alexander.
    In: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics.
    RePEc:zbw:umiodp:082016.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

21. Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries. (2016). Lieli, Robert ; Khan, Urmee.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201610.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

22. Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment. (2016). Comeig, Irene ; Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice ; Donze, Robert ; Weiss, Gregory D.
    In: Journal of Business Research.
    RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:69:y:2016:i:11:p:5071-5075.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

23. Do polls create momentum in political competition?. (2015). Sisak, Dana ; Denter, Philipp.
    In: Journal of Public Economics.
    RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:130:y:2015:i:c:p:1-14.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

24. Political uncertainty and the 2012 US presidential election: A cointegration study of prediction markets, polls and a stand-out expert. (2015). Urquhart, Andrew ; Goodell, John W ; McGroarty, Frank.
    In: International Review of Financial Analysis.
    RePEc:eee:finana:v:42:y:2015:i:c:p:162-171.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

25. Information and Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets and Tipsters as Forecasters. (2014). Reade, J.
    In: Economics Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2014-05.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

26. Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting. (2014). Siemroth, Christoph.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:mnh:wpaper:37452.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

27. Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting. (2014). Siemroth, Christoph.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:mnh:wpaper:35257.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

28. Prediction Markets and Election Polling: Granger Causality Tests Using InTrade and RealClearPolitics Data. (2014). Upadhyaya, Kamal ; Mixon, Franklin ; Cebula, Richard ; Duquette, Christopher.
    In: Atlantic Economic Journal.
    RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:42:y:2014:i:4:p:357-366.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

29. The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?. (2014). Sangnier, Marc ; Coulomb, Renaud.
    In: Journal of Public Economics.
    RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:115:y:2014:i:c:p:158-170.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

30. Combining forecasts: An application to elections. (2014). Armstrong, J. ; Jones, Randall J. ; Graefe, Andreas ; Cuzan, Alfred G..
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:1:p:43-54.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

31. Do Polls Create Momentum in Political Campaigns?. (2013). Sisak, Dana ; Denter, Philipp.
    In: Economics Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:usg:econwp:2013:26.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

32. Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations. (2013). Gaffeo, Edoardo.
    In: DEM Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:trn:utwpem:2013/08.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

33. Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand. (2012). Cramton, Peter ; de Castro, Luciano I..
    In: Papers of Peter Cramton.
    RePEc:pcc:pccumd:09ccpre.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

34. Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution. (2012). Sami, Rahul ; Jian, Lian .
    In: Management Science.
    RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:1:p:123-140.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

35. LONG-TERM PREDICTION MARKETS. (2012). Antweiler, Werner.
    In: Journal of Prediction Markets.
    RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:6:y:2012:i:3:p:43-61.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

36. Prognosemärkte. (2011). Tiberius, Victor ; Rasche, Christoph.
    In: Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics.
    RePEc:spr:metrik:v:21:y:2011:i:4:p:467-472.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

37. The wisdom of the few or the wisdom of the many? An indirect test of the marginal trader hypothesis. (2011). Blackwell, Calvin ; Pickford, Robert .
    In: Journal of Economics and Finance.
    RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:164-180.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

38. Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method. (2011). Graefe, Andreas ; Armstrong, J..
    In: Journal of Business Research.
    RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:64:y:2011:i:7:p:699-706.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

39. Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task. (2011). Graefe, Andreas ; Armstrong, J..
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:1:p:183-195.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

40. Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda. (2011). Wright, George ; Rowe, Gene.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:1:p:1-13.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

41. Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task. (2011). Graefe, Andreas ; Armstrong, J..
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:1:p:183-195.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

42. Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda. (2011). Wright, George ; Rowe, Gene.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:1:p:1-13.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

43. Rational Expectations in the Classroom: A Learning Activity. (2010). Blackwell, Calvin.
    In: Journal for Economic Educators.
    RePEc:mts:jrnlee:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:1-6.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

44. Pricing externalities. (2010). Tideman, Nicolaus T. ; Plassmann, Florenz .
    In: European Journal of Political Economy.
    RePEc:eee:poleco:v:26:y:2010:i:2:p:176-184.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

45. Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange. (2010). Nuesch, Stephan ; Franck, Egon ; Verbeek, Erwin.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:448-459.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

46. Equilibrium in prediction markets with buyers and sellers. (2010). Megiddo, Nimrod ; Agrawal, Shipra ; Armbruster, Benjamin.
    In: Economics Letters.
    RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:109:y:2010:i:1:p:46-49.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

47. Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets. (2010). Geweke, John ; Rietz, Thomas A. ; Berg, Joyce E..
    In: Quantitative Economics.
    RePEc:ecm:quante:v:1:y:2010:i:1:p:163-186.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

48. Prognosen auf Agrarmärkten: Prediction Markets – eine innovative Prognosemethode auch für die Landwirtschaft?. (2010). Müller, R. A. E., ; Loy, J.-P., ; Hedtrich, F.
    In: Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”.
    RePEc:ags:gewipr:260139.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

49. Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange. (2009). Nuesch, Stephan ; Franck, Egon ; Verbeek, Erwin.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:rsd:wpaper:0025.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

50. Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange. (2009). Nuesch, Stephan ; Franck, Egon ; Verbeek, Erwin.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:iso:wpaper:0096.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Report date: 2025-09-30 11:59:53 || Missing content? Let us know