Acemoglu, Daron, and Andrew Scott (1997), “Asymmetric Business Cycles: Theory and Time-Series Evidence,†Journal of Monetary Economics 40, 501-33.
Albert, James, and Siddhartha Chib (1993), “Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts,†Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 11, 1-15.
Ang, Andrew A., and Allan Timmermann (2012), “Regime Changes and Financial Markets, †Annual Review of Financial Economics 4, 313-337.
Auerbach, Alan and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (2012), “Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy,†American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4, 1-27.
- Baele, Lieven, Geert Bekaert, Seonghoon Cho, Koen Inghelbrecht, and Antonio Moreno (2015), “Macroeconomic Regimes,†Journal of Monetary Economics 70, 51-71.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Bai, Jushan and Pierre Perron (1998), “Testing for and Estimation of Multiple Structural Changes,†Econometrica 66, 47-78.
Bai, Jushan and Pierre Perron (2003), “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models,†Journal of Applied Econometrics 18, 1-22.
Barro, Robert J. (2006), “Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century,†Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, 823-866.
Bekaert, Geert, Robert J. Hodrick, and David Marshall (2001), “Peso Problem Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies,†Journal of Monetary Economics 48, 241-270.
Benhabib, Jess, and Roger E. A. Farmer (1999), “Indeterminacy and Sunspots in Macroeconomics, †in Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, edited by John Taylor and Michael Woodford, North Holland.
Bi, Huixin (2012), “Sovereign Default, Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits, and Fiscal Policy,†European Economic Review 56, 389-410.
Bianchi, Francesco (2013), “Regime Switches, Agents’ Beliefs and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics,†Review of Economic Studies 80, 463-490.
Branch, William A., and George W. Evans (2010), “Asset Return Dynamics and Learning, †Review of Financial Studies 23, 1651-1680.
Calvet, Laurent, and Adlai Fisher (2004), “How to Forecast Long-Run Volatility: Regime52 Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes,†Journal of Financial Econometrics 2, 49-83.
Camacho, Maximo, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, and Pilar Poncela (2014) “Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Are: A Real Time Measure,†International Journal of Forecasting 30, 520-535.
Carter, Andrew V., and Douglas G. Steigerwald (2012), “Testing for Regime Switching: A Comment,†Econometrica 80, 1809-1812.
Carter, Andrew V., and Douglas G. Steigerwald (2013), “Markov Regime-Switching Tests: Asymptotic Critical Values,†Journal of Econometric Methods 2, 25—34.
Chamley, Christophe (1999), “Coordinating Regime Switches,†Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 869-905.
Chauvet, Marcelle (1998), “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switches,†International Economic Review 39, 969-996.
- Chauvet, Marcelle, and James D. Hamilton (2006), “Dating Business Cycle Turning Points,†in Nonlinear Analysis of Business Cycles, pp. 1-54, edited by Costas Milas, Philip Rothman, and Dick van Dijk, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Chen, Jiahua and Pengfei Li (2009), “Hypothesis Test for Normal Mixture Models: The EM Approach,†Annals of Statistics 37, 2523-2542.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Chib, Siddhartha (1998), “Estimation and Comparison of Multiple Change-Point Models, †Journal of Econometrics 86, 221-241.
Christiano, Lawrence J., and Sharon G. Harrison (1999), “Chaos, Sunspots and Automatic Stabilizers,†Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 3-31.
Cooper, Russell (1994), “Equilibrium Selection in Imperfectly Competitive Economics with Multiple Equilibria,†Economic Journal 104, 1106-1122.
Cooper, Russell, and Andrew John (1988), “Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models,†Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, 441-463.
Dai, Qiang, Kenneth J. Singleton, and Wei Yang (2007), “Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bonds,†Review of Financial Studies 20, 1669-1706.
Davig, Troy (2004), “Regime-Switching Debt and Taxation,†Journal of Monetary Economics 51, 837-859.
- DeGroot, Morris H. (1970), Optimal Statistical Decisions, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Diebold, Francis X., Joon-Haeng Lee, and Gretchen C. Weinbach (1994), “Regime Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities,†in Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration, edited by Colin P. Hargreaves, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Dueker, Michael (1997), “Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility,†Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15, 26-34.
Elliott, Robert J., Leunglung Chan, and Tak Kuen Siu (2005), “Option Pricing and Esscher Transform under Regime Switching,†Annals of Finance 1, 423—432.
- Evans, Martin D. D. (1996), “Peso Problems: Their Theoretical and Empirical Implications, †in Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 14, edited by G. S. Maddala and C.R. Rao, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Farmer, Roger E. A., Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha (2010), “Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment,†American Economic Review 100, 608-617.
Filardo, Andrew J. (1994), “Business Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics,†Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299-308.
Fisher, Franklin M. (1970), “Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: An Expository Note,†Econometrica 38, 361-366. Foerster, Andrew, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha (forthcoming), “Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models,†Quantitative Economics.
- Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia (2001), “Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Classical and Dynamic Switching and Mixture Models,†Journal of the American Statistical Association 96, 194—209.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Gârleanu, Nicolae, Stavros Panageas and Jianfeng Yu (2015), “Financial Entanglement: A Theory of Incomplete Integration, Leverage, Crashes, and Contagionâ€, American Economic Review, 105, 1979-2010.
Gürkaynak, Refet S. (2008), “Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock,†Journal of Economic Surveys 22, 166-186.
Garcia, Rene (1998), “Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,†International Economic Review 39, 763-788.
Garcia, Rene, Richard Luger, and Eric Renault (2003), “Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent Variables,†Journal of Econometrics 116, 49-83.
Geweke, John (2007), “Interpretation and Inference in Mixture Models: Simple MCMC Works,†Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 51, 3529-3550.
Gordon, Stephen and Andrew Filardo (1998), “Business Cycle Durationsâ€, Journal of Econometrics 85, 99-123.
Greenlaw, David, James D. Hamilton, Peter Hooper, and Frederic Mishkin (2013), “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy,†in Proceedings of the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum 2013, pp. 3-58, Chicago Booth School of Business: Initiative on Global Markets.
Guidolin, Massimo, and Allan Timmermann (2008) “International Asset Allocation under Regime Switching, Skew, and Kurtosis Preferences,†Review of Financial Studies,21, 889-935.
- Hall, Peter, and Michael Stewart (2005), “Theoretical Analysis of Power in a TwoComponent Normal Mixture Model,†Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 134, 158-179.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Hall, Stephen G., Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola (1999), “Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test,†Journal of Applied Econometrics 14, 43-154.
- Hamilton, James D. (1985), “On Testing for Self-Fulï¬lling Speculative Price Bubbles,†International Economic Review 27, 545-552.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Hamilton, James D. (1989), “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle,†Econometrica 57, 357-384.
Hamilton, James D. (1990), “Analysis of Time Series Subject to Changes in Regime,†Journal of Econometrics 45, 39-70.
- Hamilton, James D. (1994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Hamilton, James D. (1996), “Speciï¬cation Testing in Markov-Switching Time-Series Models,†Journal of Econometrics 70, 127-157.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Hamilton, James D. (2005), “What’s Real About the Business Cycle?â€, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87, 435-452.
Hamilton, James D. (2011), “Calling Recessions in Real Time,†International Journal of Forecasting 27, 1006-1026.
Hamilton, James D., and Gabriel Perez-Quiros (1996), “What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?â€, Journal of Business 69, 27-49.
Hamilton, James D., and Raul Susmel (1994), “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Changes in Regime,†Journal of Econometrics 64, 307-333.
- Hansen, Bruce E. (1992), “The Likelihood Ratio Test under Non-Standard Conditions,†Journal of Applied Econometrics 7, S61-82. Erratum, 1996, 11, 195-198 Hong, Harrison, Jeremy C. Stein, and Jialin Yu (2007), “Simple Forecasts and Paradigm Shifts,†Journal of Finance 62, 1207-1242.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Hubrich, Kirstin, and Robert J. Tetlow (2015), “Financial Stress and Economic Dynamics: The Transmission of Crises,†Journal of Monetary Economics 70, 100-115.
Jeanne, Olivier and Paul Masson (2000), “Currency Crises, Sunspots, and MarkovSwitching Regimes,†Journal of International Economics 50, 327-350.
Karamé, Frédéric (2010), “Impulse-Response Functions in Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Step Further,†Economics Letters 106, 162-165.
Kim, Chang Jin (1994), “Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,†Journal of Econometrics 60, 1-22.
- Kim, Chang Jin, and Charles R. Nelson (1999a), State-Space Models with Regime Switching, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kim, Chang-Jin, and Charles R. Nelson (1999b) “Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-switching Model of the Business Cycleâ€, Review of Economics and Statistics 81, 608—616.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Kirman, Alan (1993), “Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment,†Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, 137-156.
Klein, Paul (2000), “Using the Generalized Schur Form to Solve a Multivariate Linear Rational Expectations Model,†Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 24, 1405-1423.
- Koop, Gary, and Simon N. Potter (1999), “Bayes Factors and Nonlinearity: Evidence from Economic Time Series,†Journal of Econometrics 88, 251-281.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin (1997), Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions : Modelling, Statistical Inference, and Application to Business Cycle Analysis, Berlin: Springer.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Lind, Nelson (2014), “Regime-Switching Perturbation for Non-Linear Equilibrium Models, †working paper, UCSD.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Lo, Ming Chien, and Jeremy Piger (2005), “Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model,†Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37, 865-886.
McConnell, Margaret M. and Gabriel Perez-Quiros (2000), “Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980’s?,†American Economic Review 90, 1464-1476.
Owyang, Michael, and Garey Ramey (2004), “Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement, Journal of Monetary Economics 51, 1577-1597.
Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez (2002), “A Regime-Switching Approach to the Study of Speculative Attacks: A Focus on EMS Crises,†in Advances in Markov-Switching Models, edited by James D. Hamilton and Baldev Raj, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag.
Pesaran, M. Hashem, Davide Pettenuzzo, and Allan Timmermann (2006), “Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks,†Review of Economic Studies 73, 10571084.
Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J. (1995), “Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime,†Journal of Political Economy 103, 176-208.
Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J. (1999), “Government Expenditure and the Dynamics of High Inflation,†Journal of Development Economics 58, 333-358.
Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie and Martin Uribe (2004), “Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models using a Second-order Approximation,†Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28, 755-775.
- Schwarz, Gideon (1978), “Estimating the Dimension of a Model,†Annals of Statistics 6, 461-464.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Sims, Christopher (2001), “Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models,†Journal of Computational Economics 20, 1-20.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Sims, Christopher, and Tao Zha (2006), “Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?â€, American Economic Review 96, 54-81.
- Teräsvirta, Timo (1994), “Speciï¬cation, Estimation, and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models,†Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 208-218.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Teräsvirta, Timo (2004), “Smooth Transition Regression Modelling,†in Applied Time Series Econometrics, pp. 222-242, edited by Helmut Lütkepohl and Markus Krätziģ, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
- Tjøstheim, Dag (1986), “Some Doubly Stochastic Time Series Models,†Journal of Time Series Analysis 7, 51-72.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Veldkamp, Laura L. (2005), “Slow Boom, Sudden Crash,†Journal of Economic Theory 124, 230-257.
- White, Halbert (1984), Asymptotic Theory for Econometricians, Orlando: Academic Press.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Yang, Min Xian (2000), “Some Properties of Vector Autoregressive Processes with MarkovSwitching Coefficients,†Econometric Theory 16, 23-43.