The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed out the first week of December 2025 at 6,870.40, up 0.3% from where it closed the previous week.

The main focus of investors continues to be what action the Federal Reserve will take with short term U.S. interest rates. After putting on a show in recent weeks to try to convince markets that it might not continue reducing the Federal Funds Rate at the end of its next rate-setting meeting on Wednesday, 10 December 2025, evidence of continued anemic growth in the U.S. labor market announced during the past week is leading investors to expect the Fed will cut rates.

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool captures that sentiment. It held steady in the past week, indicating an 87% probability of a quarter point rate cut on 10 December (2025-Q4). Looking beyond the end of 2025, the FedWatch tool gives better than even odds for additional quarter point rate cuts on 29 April (2026-Q2) and 29 July (2026-Q3). A third rate cut anticipated for 9 December (2026-Q4) a week ago is no longer in the outlook, with the next potential rate cut pushed out into 2027.

Even though the probability of a rate cut is high, the Fed's minions arguing against a rate cut have succeeded in creating enough doubt that investors remain focused on the current quarter of 2025-Q4 in setting current day stock prices. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the trajectory of the S&P 500 falls in the middle of the redzone forecast range we added two weeks earlier, assuming investors would be focused on 2025-Q4 going into this upcoming trading week.

After the Fed meets, there will be little reason for investors to continue placing much attention on 2025-Q4. We think investors will quickly shift their forward-looking attention toward the slightly more distant quarter of 2026-Q1, since it will become the focus of timing for the next rate change actions by the Fed.

Whether that plays out as we think will depend on the random onset of new information. Speaking of which, here are the market-moving headlines that influenced investor expectations during the past week.

Monday, 1 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil climbs over $1 a barrel on OPEC action, Ukraine attack
• OPEC+ holds oil output steady, agrees capacity mechanism
• US manufacturing stuck in doldrums as tariff headwinds persist
• Fed minions disagreeing with each other could hurt markets, expected to deliver rate cut in December:
• Flurry of Fed dissents in coming meetings could pose market, political risks
• BofA expects December Fed cut, two more in 2026
• Bigger trouble, mixed growth signs developing in China:
• China's central bank vows crackdown on virtual currency, flags stablecoin concerns
• China's November new home prices climb but resale values extend declines, survey shows
• BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan's interest rates:
• BOJ to consider rate hike in December, governor says; yen, yields rise
• Global bonds slide after hawkish Bank of Japan comments
• Yen rises and bonds fall after BOJ governor hints at rate increase
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• China export controls push European firms to move supply chains
• U.S. stocks end lower as yields rise at the start of December
• Wall Street ends lower as yields climb; crypto stocks drop

Tuesday, 2 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil eases amid uncertainty around Russia-Ukraine peace plan, oversupply worries
• OPEC+ members to undergo annual oil capacity audit under new plan, sources say
• Q3 earnings show firm revenue gains alongside softer low-income demand
• Chief Fed minion might linger after being ousted as Chief in 2026:
• Trump says he will announce Fed chief nominee in early 2026
• Powell could stay on as Fed governor after giving up chair role, like former chief Eccles
• Major brokerages boost bets on December Fed rate cut ahead of policy meeting
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• China manufacturing is slumping despite boost from US trade truce
• China floods the world with gasoline cars it can't sell at home
• Chinese censors crackdown on online 'doom-mongering' of property sector
• BOJ minions rate hike plans to have global impact:
• Japan's economic normalisation will affect global liquidity
• Demand for Japanese bonds reassures jittery markets
• ECB minions say they have Eurozone inflation right where they want it:
• Euro zone inflation ticks up, pointing to steady ECB rates
• Euro zone inflation practically at target, ECB's Nagel says
• Wall Street rebounds, ends higher as Bitcoin, tech stocks rise
• Equities rise on Fed rate cut optimism, Boeing jumps

Wednesday, 3 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• The AI frenzy is driving a new global supply chain crisis
• Exclusive: More US soybean shipments to China due to load through mid-December
• Oil rises as Moscow peace talks fail to reach breakthrough
• Fed minions stop losing money after three years:
• Fed data suggests central bank has stopped losing money
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's services growth slips to five-month low in November
• China likely to chase 5% GDP growth in 2026 in bid to end deflation
• Major Chinese banks cut high-yield deposit products to ease margin pressure
• Business recovery developing in Eurozone, ECB minions worry about 'upside suprises':
• Euro zone business activity expands at fastest pace in 30 months in November
• ECB's Lane flags 'upside surprises' to euro zone inflation
• U.S. stocks shrug off selloff to end higher after lower-than-expected jobs data
• Indexes close higher as data keeps Fed rate cut expectations elevated

Thursday, 4 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Lower interest rates would likely eliminate the need for 50-year mortgage, US Treasury adviser says
• US private payrolls post largest drop in more than 2-1/2 years in November
• US weekly jobless claims dive to a more than three-year low
• Oil rises on expectations of Fed rate cut, Ukraine peace talks stalling
• Americans head to dollar stores as affordability crunch pinches consumers
• Fed minions see steady unemployment rate, still expected to cut rates in December 2025:
• Chicago Fed sees November unemployment rate steady at 4.4% as alternate data shows job losses
• Economists double down on December Fed cut despite policymaker divide
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's Real Estate Collapse Sends Local Debt To Record $18.9 Trillion
• Exclusive: China state-owned banks soak up dollars to slow yuan gains, sources say
• BOJ minions think they've won something:
• BOJ likely to raise rates in December, government to tolerate move, sources say
• BOJ wins first showdown with Takaichi - what's next is less certain
• BOJ's Ueda flags uncertainty on how far rates can go up
• Japanese 10-year bond yields rise to highest level since 2007
• Weak Japanese yen is ticking time bomb
• Explainer. How will a rise in Japanese interest rates affect global markets?
• Wall Street ends mixed after struggling to stay afloat on lower-than-expected job cuts, Metaverse news
• Investors cheer Meta's reported Metaverse cuts, a segment that has bled $73B in losses
• EU hits Meta with antitrust probe over plans to block AI rivals from WhatsApp
• Indexes end near flat, supported by Fed hopes but dragged by Amazon

Friday, 5 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices hold steady due to stalled Ukraine peace talks and supply outlook
• More investment bankers expect Fed minions to deliver rate cut:
• Jumped the gun, says Morgan Stanley; reverses Dec Fed rate call to 25bps cut
• Recovery signs developing in China:
• China's November exports expected to have rebounded off US tariff truce
• JapanGov minion makes show of BOJ minions having independence from JapanGov minions as bigger trouble develops in Japan:
• Japan's economy minister says up to BOJ to decide 'specific monetary policy means'
• BOJ expected to choose 'constructive ambiguity' on future rate hikes
• Japan October household spending falls at fastest pace in nearly 2 years
• Wall St closes with slight gains as data keeps Fed cut expectations on track
• U.S. stocks end higher as NFLX-WBD acquisition fuels sentiment, investors assess inflation gauge

We're rapidly coming up on another period in which we'll need to add another redzone forecast range to the chart to track the most likely trajectory the S&P 500 will be taking in the weeks ahead. Unlike the current redzone forecast range that is set to end early in this upcoming week, we anticipate the actual trajectory of the S&P 500 will overshoot the projections of the dividend futures-based model for several weeks going into 2026. This is a consequence of the model's use of historic stock prices as the base reference points for making its projections of the S&P 500's future, in which the echoes of past volatility affect the model's forecasts. The redzone forecasts we add get around that inconvenience by bridging across the period in which those echoes affect the model's raw projections.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 ticked down from +3.9% last week to +3.5% week. The tool won't shift to forecast 2025-Q4's GDP until 23 December 2025. The BEA's official initial estimate of GDP for 2025-Q3 will be released on that date.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and a bear watching a stage show featuring a Federal Reserve official who is announcing a rate cut"

A little over three years ago, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology took off in the public consciousness with OpenAI's public release of ChatGPT.

That event took place in a period of relative chaos for the U.S. stock market. That period of chaos started with the S&P 500's plunge after February 2020 with the arrival of 2020's coronavirus pandemic in the U.S., which ended the period of relative order that had established itself in December 2018. The inflation phase of the bubble began after March 2020 with the passage of COVID stimulus funds, which initiated the inflation of the COVID/Biden Stimulus Bubble.

The deflation phase of that bubble began after it peaked in December 2021 and by June 2022, the level of the S&P 500 had returned to levels consistent with where stock prices would have been had the relative order that had been in place starting in December 2018 had simply continued. The following chart, which tracks the average monthly value of the S&P 500 against its underlying trailing year dividends per share shows the scale of that event in the context of the relative periods of order and chaos we've documented since December 1991.

Stock prices continued falling through September 2022 before starting to re-establish some semblance of relative order in the latter part of that year when stock prices began to recover. ChatGPT was rolled out in that environment on 30 November 2022, which helped contribute to the stock market's initial recovery phase that ran through late July 2023, then reversed through late October 2023. It wasn't until 29 December 2023 that what we define as the current period of relative order established itself.

From here, we can track the progress of the current period of relative order in the U.S. stock market on a more refined chart. Here is what that period of order looks like from 29 December 2023 through 2 December 2025:

This chart allows us to quantify what most analysts might identify as the AI bubble, but which we do not because of how we define what a bubble is. Here is our working definition:

An economic bubble exists whenever the price of an asset that may be freely exchanged in a well-established market first soars then plummets over a sustained period of time at rates that are decoupled from the rate of growth of the income that might be realized from owning or holding the asset.

Going back to our chart of the current period of relative order, we find it captures the inflation and deflation phase of the so-called "AI Bubble" that has occurred within it. The inflation phase runs from 29 December 2023 and continues until it peaks in 19 February 2025, just ahead of a market-shaking event for AI stocks. That event came in the form of China's Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research company's Friday, 21 February 2025 statement that they would release an open source version of their advanced AI system in the following week, which they followed through and did on Monday, 24 February 2025.

This event popped the proverbial AI bubble. Stock prices plunged until they started to stabilize in late March 2025, but by then, what passed for the AI bubble had all but fully deflated.

Shortly afterward, President Trump's 2 April 2025 "Liberation Day" global tariff announcement sent the S&P 500 plunging much lower, threatening to break the market's current relative period of order. It didn't because less than a week later, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of the higher tariffs would seek to impose, which prompted a rapid recovery in stock prices that prevented order from fully breaking down.

However, it's not until late June 2025, after Nvidia (NYSE: NVDA) announced blockbuster earnings of its AI-chip systems that we see signs the AI-bubble may have begun a new inflation phase.

From our perspective, the so-called AI bubble doesn't yet deserve that designation. Although it has contributed to making the current relative period of order somewhat chaotic, stock prices remain within the range we identify has established itself during this period, for which we can used the tools of statistical analysis to quantify. The first inflation-deflation phase of the AI-bubble would at best cover 2.5 standard deviations of the variation of stock prices recorded between 29 December 2023 and 2 December 2025, or about 612 points. What passes as its new inflation phase, which we track from 20 June 2025 to the present, is similar in magnitude and is equivalent to about 9% of the current value of the S&P 500.

What would it take for us to officially recognize the AI Bubble as an actual bubble? We would need to see the 20-day moving average of the S&P 500 rise above the upper red dashed line indicated on our refined chart and stay there. For the upcoming milestone of the S&P 500's trailing year dividends reaching $79 per share, that would mean the index sustaining a level above $7,000 for at least 20 trading days to even begin to qualify. Which is to say the earliest that might happen would be early in 2026.

Celebrating Political Calculations' Anniversary

We hope you've enjoyed this analysis because we're celebrating our anniversary a little early this year! Our anniversary posts typically represent the biggest ideas and celebration of the original work we develop here each year, where we've only missed 2024 because we were tied up with other projects. Here are our landmark posts from previous years:

• A Year's Worth of Tools (2005) - we celebrated our first anniversary by listing all the tools we created in our first year. There were just 48 back then. Today, there are over 300....
• The S&P 500 At Your Fingertips (2006) - the most popular tool we've ever created, allowing users to calculate the rate of return for investments in the S&P 500, both with and without the effects of inflation, and with and without the reinvestment of dividends, between any two months since January 1871.
• The Sun, In the Center (2007) - we identify the primary driver of stock prices and describe a whole new way to visualize where they're going (especially in periods of order!)
• Acceleration, Amplification and Shifting Time (2008) - we apply elements of chaos theory to describe and predict how stock prices will change, even in periods of disorder.
• The Trigger Point for Taxes (2009) - we work out both when, and by how much, U.S. politicians are likely to change the top U.S. income tax rate. Sadly, events in recent years have proven us right.
• The Zero Deficit Line (2010) - a whole new way to find out how much federal government spending Americans can really afford and how much Americans cannot really afford!
• Can Increasing the Minimum Wage Boost GDP? (2011) - using data for teens and young adults spanning 1994 and 2010, not only do we demonstrate that increasing the minimum wage fails to increase GDP, we demonstrate that it reduces employment and increases income inequality as well!
• The Discovery of the Unseen (2012) - we go where so-called experts on income inequality fear to tread and reveal that U.S. household income inequality has increased over time mostly because more Americans live alone!

We marked our 2013 anniversary in three parts, since we were telling a story too big to be told in a single blog post! Here they are:

• The Major Trends in U.S. Income Inequality Since 1947 (2013, Part 1) - we revisit the U.S. Census Bureau's income inequality data for American individuals, families and households to see what it really tells us.
• The Widows Peak (2013, Part 2) - we identify when the dramatic increase in the number of Americans living alone really occurred and identify which Americans found themselves in that situation.
• The Men Who Weren't There (2013, Part 3) - our final anniversary post installment explores the lasting impact of the men who died in the service of their country in World War 2 and the hole in society that they left behind, which was felt decades later as the dramatic increase in income inequality for U.S. families and households.

Resuming our list of anniversary posts....

• The Toolmaker's Tool (2014) - we make the code we use for creating online tools available to all!
• Replacing GDP with the National Dividend (2015) - we explore our development of an alternative measure of economic welfare that can replace GDP.
• The Gamblers Who Invented Modern Encryption (2016) - we discover that a group of gamblers seeking to break the law in Missouri back in 1905 put together many of the elements that underlie secure electronic communications and financial transactions!
• The Isolation of El Niño (2017) - in which we advanced the development of a global economic indicator for Earth!
• Telescoping Median Household Income Back in Time (2018) - we find a way to nearly double the available supply of monthly median household income estimates with reasonable accuracy.
• Cashing Out of the S&P 500 (2019) - we develop a tool to answer the question of whether you can survive being retired if you're counting on cashing out your investment in the S&P 500!
• The Deadly Intersection of Anti-Police Protests and COVID-19 (2020) - it was the year of the coronavirus and political protests, so we combined the two in a way that only we could.
• The Birth of the Martian Economy (2021) - we don't mess around when we say we celebrate big ideas, and what's bigger idea to celebrate than the birth of an entire planet's economy?
• The S&P 500 Dividend Engine (2022) - we put the entire history of the S&P 500's cash dividends at your fingertips!
• The Origin of Ancient Alien Theory (2023) - how and when did the idea of aliens visiting Earth to do things like build pyramids get started?

Image credit: Multicolored soap bubble image by Alexa from Pixabay.

On Thanksgiving holiday week, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose 1.7% from its previous week's close, reaching 6,849.09 by the close of trading on Friday, 28 November 2025.

The index' gains was largely driven by growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will act to cut the Federal Funds Rate when its Federal Open Market Committee concludes a two-day meeting on Tuesday, 10 December 2025, overcoming the opposition of the FOMC's biggest grumps who lost face during the year by predicting much higher inflation would result from tariffs than is supported by real world evidence. Through Friday, 28 November 2025, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 87% probability of a quarter point rate cut on 10 December (2025-Q4), up from 71% a week earlier and from 44% the week before that.

In 2026, the FedWatch tool gives better than even odds for additional quarter point rate cuts on 29 April (2026-Q2), 29 July (2026-Q3), and 9 December (2026-Q4), which is unchanged from the previous week.

This growing expectation puts the S&P 500's trajectory will within the redzone forecast range we added to the alternative futures chart in the previous edition of the S&P 500 chaos series. Here's the latest update of the chart:

The other major story that's been driving the direction of the S&P 500 index during 2025 was relatively quiet during the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened trading week. However, what happens with firms making big AI technology-related investments continues to affect the market's direction, which in the past week meant providing the biggest boost to the markets' major indices. Here are the market-moving headlines from the week that was.

Monday, 24 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• No recession risk for US economy as a whole after $11 billion shutdown hit, Bessent says
• Oil prices climb as market bets on US rate cut despite Ukraine peace hopes
• Biggest Gas Pipeline Buildout Since 2008 Propels Trump Energy Push
• Companies tone down price hike talk as tariff fog clears
• US banks report 13.5% jump in profits: FDIC
• Fed minions still thinking about December rate cut:
• Fed's Waller: December cut appropriate, but January action more uncertain - Fox Business
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, China:
• Japan can actively intervene to prop up yen, says govt panel member Aida
• China says Japan sent 'shocking' wrong signal on Taiwan
• China criticises Japan's plan to deploy missiles on island near Taiwan
• Japan fiscal experiment is lab test for Treasuries
• Chief ECB minion thinks Eurozone minions' approach to AI technology is wrong:
• EU missing the boat on AI, jeopardising its future, Lagarde warns
• Nasdaq closed higher by more than 2% to kick off the holiday-shortened week
• Wall Street ends higher on tech rebound, rising rate cut bets
• Nasdaq surges and these 10 stocks have fueled the ride higher
• Alphabet races toward $4 trillion valuation as AI-fueled gains accelerate

Tuesday, 25 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil dips on oversupply concerns while investors eye Ukraine talks
• OPEC+ seen keeping oil output unchanged, focus on capacity debate
• Inflation weighing on US income growth ahead of holiday season, study says
• US pending home sales increase in October amid lower mortgage rates
• US tech valuations stretched further as earnings contribute less
• New leading candidate to be next Chief Fed minion, new minion sees rising unemployment as reason for December rate cut, Treasury Secretary not happy with how Fed manages interest rates:
• Hassett emerges as frontrunner to be Trump's next Fed chair, Bloomberg News reports
• Stocks Hit Session Highs On Report Hassett Emerges As Trump's Next Fed Chair Pick
• Good chance Trump may unveil Fed pick by Christmas, Bessent says
• Fed's Miran ties rising unemployment to current setting of monetary policy - Fox Business
• US Treasury secretary takes aim at Fed's interest rate control system
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• Germany stagnates in innovation ranking as rivals surge ahead
• Dow rallied over 650 points as Wall Street finished firmly in the green
• Wall Street ends higher as Federal Reserve rate cut bets gather momentum

Wednesday, 26 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US economic activity little changed ahead of next Fed meeting, report shows
• Oil edges up as investors await clarity on supply, Russia-Ukraine deal
• US drillers cut oil rigs to lowest in four years, Baker Hughes says
• US weekly jobless claims at seven-month low amid low layoffs
• BOJ minions gearing up to hike Japan's interest rates:
• Exclusive: BOJ preps markets for near-term hike as weak yen overshadows politics
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions say they're in no mood for more rate cuts:
• Reality check for EU: China is eating your lunch, find growth at home, ECB chief economist argues
• Euro zone banks should prepare for risk of dollar squeeze, ECB says
• ECB should cut rates only if inflation path points downward without rebound, Vujcic says
• Wall Street finished higher on fresh economic signals ahead of Thanksgiving
• Wall St ends higher on growing bets for December Fed rate cut
• Divided Fed sparks surge in rate options hedging as policy uncertainty lingers

Friday, 28 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Brent oil price stable, WTI also steaudy after resumption
• Big brokerages not sure which way Fed minions are going to go with cutting rates in December 2025:
• Major brokerages divided over Fed's December rate decision following jobs data
• JP Morgan shifts outlook on Fed rate cut to December
• Bigger trouble, saber-rattling developing in China:
• China's next economic shift is primed for backlash
• China's factory activity set to shrink for eighth month: Reuters poll
• China's industrial profits fall in October after two months of strong growth
• Japan will pay 'painful price' if steps out of line over Taiwan, China military says
• Bigger stimulus developing in Japan, BOJ minions expected to hike rates:
• Japan finalises $117 billion extra budget to fund stimulus, mostly via debt
• Japan government panel members call for sustainable fiscal policy
• Bank of Japan's Noguchi advocates gradual interest rate hikes
• Core inflation in Japan's capital brings BOJ closer to a rate hike
• ECB minions expected to not do anything with Eurozone interest rates anytime soon:
• ECB accounts show no hurry to cut rates, debate on declaring end of easing
• ECB's Kazaks says time is not ripe for a rate cut
• Euro zone growth, inflation on benign path, keeping rate cut bets muted
• Wall Street posts largest swing ever from red to green for the month of November
• Wall Street edges higher in thin post-holiday trade

It's hard to believe OpenAI's ChatGPT has only been around for three years!

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 decreased from +4.2% to +3.9% as economic data reports resume being reported following the end of the Senate Democrats' government shutdown fiasco. The BEA's official estimates of GDP for 2025-Q3 will likely be delayed into December 2025, which may happen around the time the GDPNow tool gets enough data to finally shift forward to 2025-Q4.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is being served a Thanksgiving turkey that says 'DECEMBER RATE CUT' by a grumpy Federal Reserve official".

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) experienced a lot of intraday volatility in the trading week ending on Friday, 21 November 2025. By the close of the week's trading, the index was down 1.95% from its previous week's close.

Two factors combined to put the market through big swings during the week that was. The AI tech stocks that have helped power the S&P 500 to record highs during 2025 got a big boost from Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) after the close of trading on Wednesday, 19 November 2025, when the company announced its cloud GPU products sold out, affirming the megacap's outlook going into 2026.

The market's positive reaction to that news was tempered on Thursday however, as a number of Federal Reserve officials staked out positions against continuing the Fed's recent rate cuts in December 2025. That information sent stock prices down to their lowest level since 10 September 2025, which was partially reversed on Friday when the Fed's second-highest ranking official signaled a rate cut "in the near term" would be likely.

The response by investors to the prospect a "near term" rate cut is remarkable. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool rose to indicate a 71% probability of a quarter point rate cut on 10 December (2025-Q4), up from just 44% a week ago, with virtually all of that change taking place on Friday, 21 November 2025. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose nearly one percent on the day to end the trading week at 6,602.99.

Looking further forward, the FedWatch tool gives better than even odds for additional quarter point rate cuts in 2026, coming on 29 April (2026-Q2), 29 July (2026-Q3), and 9 December (2026-Q4). The potential timing of all these projected rate cuts remains very fluid with substantial changes in expectations from week to week.

For the latest update of the alternative futures chart, we've added a new short-term redzone forecast range to compensate for the echo of historic volatility in stock prices in the dividend futures-based model. The echo effect arises as a result of the model's use of historic stock prices as the base reference points from which its projections of future stock prices are determined. The new redzone forecast range assumes investors will remain focused on the current quarter of 2025-Q4 in setting stock prices during the period it runs.

Speaking of the echo effect, the chart also shows we'll have another, longer period coming up in which the model's projections will be similarly affected, though for that period, we anticipate the model's projections will undershoot the trajectory of stock prices.

We also likely won't know how investors will reset their forward-looking investment time horizon after the Fed's 10 December 2025 meeting. They will shift their attention to a more distant quarter in the future, but the open question that remains to be answered is which one?

Sorting that out depends on the context of the random onset of new information investors will absorb in the weeks ahead. Until those make themselves known, here are the past week's market moving headlines.

Monday, 17 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices ease after loadings resume at Russian export hub
• US construction spending rebounds in August
• China deal buys US time to build critical minerals supply chain
• Fed minions keep sending mixed messages on December 2025 rate cut probability:
• Fed needs to move slowly with further rate cuts, Jefferson says
• Fed's Waller says weak job market justifies rate cut in December
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ minions get multiple reasons to hold off on rate hike plans:
• Japan's economy contracts for first time in six quarters on tariff hit
• Japan government panel member Kataoka calls for $149 billion stimulus package
• Threats Of Sanctions, Economic Warfare, As Japan-China Relations Sink To Decades Low
• ECB minions say Eurozone: monetary policy is appropriate:
• ECB's Sleijpen: risks are balanced, policy is appropriate
• Wall Street extends losses as investors await Nvidia results, other Q3 earnings
• Wall Street indexes end lower; investors brace for jobs data, Nvidia results

Tuesday, 18 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises on Russia sanctions, interviews for next US Fed chair
• Global oil refining profits surge and may stay strong
• US factory orders rebound as expected in August
• Exclusive: China snaps up US soybeans after pledge to Trump, but at high price, traders say
• Fed minions say they want more economic data from the government:
• Fed's Barkin looks forward to more economic clarity as data flow resumes
• BOJ minions looking to get "smooth landing" for Japan's inflation, Japan's new PM looking to get monetary policy support from BOJ minions:
• BOJ chief tells Takaichi central bank seeking smooth landing towards price goal
• Japan PM Takaichi to meet BOJ Governor Ueda on Tuesday, PM office says
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
• Japan finance minister says 'alarmed' over yen's volatility
• China threatens more countermeasures over Japan PM's Taiwan remarks
• Japan warns citizens in China about safety as diplomatic crisis deepens
• ECB minions suddenly really worried about Eurozone banks going under:
• Europe's banks face 'unprecedentedly high' risk of shocks, ECB warns
• ECB’s top supervisor seeks new powers to override bank capital barriers
• Euro zone banks are preparing well for lower liquidity
• Wall Street finished the day firmly lower despite afternoon efforts to pare higher

Wednesday, 19 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US trade deficit narrows sharply in August in boost to third-quarter GDP
• Oil falls on signs of renewed push to end Russia-Ukraine war
• Beijing Jumps Back Into US Soybean Market, Snaps Up 20 Cargo Loads After Abrupt Pause
• Fed minions less likely to cut rates in December because shutdown blocked government from collecting jobs data in October, Fed minutes reveal Fed minions all over the map for rate cuts, one minions proposes Fed balance sheet relief:
• December Fed rate cut odds slide after cancellation of October jobs report
• US canceling October's employment report after shutdown prevented data collection
• Fed cut rates even as many of its policymakers worried about inflation, minutes show
• Fed minutes show support for ending quantitative tightening
• What Fed cut? US repo rates still high as liquidity tightens into year-end
• Fed's Miran calls for exempting Treasuries from bank leverage rule
• Easing regulations could lead to smaller Fed balance sheet, Miran says
• Trump looking to replace Fed Chair Powell:
• Trump says his administration has started interviews for next Fed chair
• Trump again criticizes Fed's Powell, says 'I'd love to fire his ass'
• BOJ minions really starting to get worried as much bigger trouble develops in Japan:
• Japan policymakers agree to watch market with 'strong sense of urgency', yen weakens
• Japanese yen's safe-haven illusion shatters
• Japan Bond Yields Soar To Record, Slamming Door On Stimulus Just As Economy Implodes Amid Escalating China Clash
• ECB minions thinking about going on vacation all next year:
• ECB set to hold rates through 2026 on steady economic outlook
• Wall Street finished higher despite a volatile topsy turvy trading session
• Wall Street indexes end rocky session higher; Nvidia gains after hours
• Nvidia pops as AI strength buoys Q3 results, guidance; Huang says cloud GPUs 'sold out'
• Nvidia's strong forecast calms AI bubble jitters, for now

Thursday, 20 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US posts solid job gains in September but unemployment rate rises to 4.4%
• US existing home sales increase in October
• Oil edges higher on inventory draw and equities rally
• Trump signs order to remove tariffs from Brazilian beef, coffee
• Fed minions divided on more rate cuts:
• Fed's Hammack warns more rate cuts court financial stability risks
• Fed's Paulson is 'cautiously' approaching December rate decision, she says
• Fed's Goolsbee uneasy about rate cuts, says nothing wrong with dissenting
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China steel output slumps as iron ore imports head for record
• China expected to keep rates steady for sixth month as PBOC turns less dovish
• BOJ minions plans to hike rates again in question:
• BOJ set to hike interest rates in December, but decision on knife-edge
• Japan policymakers agree to watch market with 'strong sense of urgency', yen weakens
• ECB minions wants to see outlook get really bad to justify next Eurozone rate cut:
• ECB's Makhlouf says material outlook change is needed for rate cut
• Nasdaq slides more than 2%, marking a stunning reversal from gains of more than 2%
• Volatility spikes to a one month high as market sentiment shifts sour
• AI borrowing binge prompts investors to back away from corporate bonds

Friday, 21 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. job growth in 2025 weakest in 15 years, excluding pandemic's 2020
• US manufacturing slows in November as high prices curb demand
• Oil prices settle down at lowest in a month as US seeks Russia-Ukraine peace deal
• Shale rigs idle, layoffs rise as $60 oil tests resilience of Permian
• China's largest US soybean buy in 2 years buoys prices, triggers sales by struggling farmers
• High ranking Fed minion signals rate cut "in the near term" while others take every position imaginable, one minion says AI not like Dot-Com bubble:
• December rate cut odds swing back up sharply after NY Fed's Williams sees room for easing
• Fed cut odds rise on Williams' comments, though policy hawks remain adamant
• Fed's Collins leans against December rate cut in CNBC interview
• Fed's Logan calls for holding rates steady 'for a time'
• Fed's Miran would back 25-bp rate cut if he were 'marginal vote' - BBG TV
• Fed's Jefferson: AI-related stock gains unlikely to be dot-com boom replay
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
• China Prepares New Property Stimulus Package As Housing Crisis Enters Year Six
• Inflation data pushes BOJ minions closer to hiking Japan's interest rates as they also worry about yen possibly collapsing:
• Japan's core inflation accelerates in October, stays above BOJ target
• BOJ nearing decision to raise rates, board member Masu says -Nikkei
• Bank of Japan signals chance of December rate hike as yen slides
• Japan ramps up warning of yen intervention, chance of near-term rate hike
• All Hell Breaks Loose In Japan As Yen, Bonds Crash Ahead Of Gigantic, Debt-Busting Stimulus
• Wall Street ended notably higher following the previous session’s violent swings
• Wall Street indexes jump as rate cut bets increase but suffer losses for week
• 'In the near term': Four words have Wall Street rebounding more than 1%
• Lilly becomes first drugmaker to hit $1 trillion valuation on weight-loss demand

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 increased from +4.0% to +4.2% as several delayed economic data reports started to come in following the end of the Senate Democrats' shutdown. The BEA's official estimates of GDP for 2025-Q3 will likely be delayed into December 2025 given the upcoming holiday calendar.

With the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, we're anticipating a low volume of news coming out of the U.S. in the week ahead. That means much of the market-moving news will be coming from outside the U.S., where we anticipate paying a lot of attention to developments in both China and especially Japan.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of Federal Reserve officials dressed as professional wrestlers who are fighting about whether to cut interest rates or not".

The S&P 500's dividend outlook for the final quarter of 2025 brightened in the month since our last snapshot of their outlook.

On 15 October 2025, the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes indicated investors could expect to collect $19.90 per share during the period covered by 2025-Q4 dividend futures contracts. On Friday, 14 November 2025, that rose to $19.94 per share, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month's outlook.

Our October 2025 snapshot also presented the projections for the S&P 500's dividends per share through the second quarter of 2026. Here is how the dividends expected in the future quarters of 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 changed in the past month:

• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.01, dipping to $20.89 per share
• 2026-Q2: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.73 per share

For this dividend snapshot, we're extending the outlook for the S&P 500's expected dividends per share through the fourth quarter of 2026. The following chart presents the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as provided by dividend futures contracts from 2024-Q1 through 2026-Q4.

A note of caution on the dividend projection for 2026-Q4. Because it covers expectations that are currently more than four quarters into the future, it's best understood as an initial projection based on very thin trading at this point of time. The projection for this quarter can be expected to change once it falls within the typical year-ahead period that defines the typical time horizon for investors and the investment activity for its related dividend futures contract picks up.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. As determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, the next quarter of 2026-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 22 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.