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President Trump wants new congressional maps in Texas — now. Not in the next decade. Not after the next census. Not when it’s traditionally done. He wants it done smack dab in the middle of the decade.
Why the odd timing? Because he wants it done in time to help his presidency.
In Trump’s mind, Texas is a vending machine: insert redistricting, receive five shiny new Republican seats. “We are entitled to five more seats,” he declared on CNBC, his voice dripping with the royal “we” of someone who thinks democracy is nothing but a loyalty program.
This is merely the latest example of Trump’s fondness for procedural hardball. He recently sacked the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner for reporting job numbers he didn’t like. And his congressional minions just passed a bipartisan bill that required Democratic votes to get through, only to use budget “rescissions” to take back the Democratic priorities they never intended to fund.
Trump plays Calvinball with democracy — rules change mid-play, and he’s somehow always the one scoring.
And here’s the thing: It’s not illegal. “Not illegal” in the same way that drinking milk straight from the carton isn’t illegal — just gross, petty and an announcement to the room that you’re not interested in living by any mutually agreed-upon standards. (Trust me. I have teenagers.)
The Texas gambit, though, is utterly Trumpian in its ambitious recklessness. It might work. Or it might backfire and actually cost Republicans 2026 midterm seats. But either way, this aggression is radioactive.
Consider the immediate reaction. Texas Democrats, lacking the votes to block the move, fled the state entirely — denying Republicans the quorum they needed to conduct business.
This, in turn, was met with all the subtlety of a bounty hunt. The Texas House speaker signed civil arrest warrants for the missing lawmakers. The governor ordered state officials to search every warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse. (Just kidding. That was Tommy Lee Jones in “The Fugitive.” But, honestly, it’s a pretty close approximation.)
Powder keg vibes abound. What happens if and when a Texas lawman tries to slap cuffs on a Democrat in New York or California? Do we get a full-blown interstate standoff? A live cable news shootout of sheriffs and state troopers at the airport terminal gate?
Even if nothing that crazy happens, legislators making $600 a month are being fined $500 a day for their absence. And the governor has even threatened bribery charges against anyone helping them pay the fines.
But here’s where the escalation really kicks in. Even if the Texas Democrats fold and slink back to Austin (honestly, they don’t have much leverage), blue states are already eyeing retaliation.
California, New York, Illinois — they could all dust off the gerrymander machine to carve out extra Democratic seats. (Yes, some blue states handed map drawing to independent commissions, but power has a way of finding the crowbar it needs.)
This is mutually assured destruction with ballots instead of missiles.
And the kicker? After both sides squeeze every last seat out of their respective states, this whole exhausting mess could net Republicans one or two extra seats — or maybe none at all.
At this point, you might be wondering “How did we get here?”
I’m reminded of an old story — possibly true, probably apocryphal — about how circus elephants are trained.
When they’re babies (calves), elephants are chained to a stake they can’t pull up. They try and fail, and eventually they stop trying.
As adults, weighing several tons, they could walk away from the stake they are chained to at any time. But they don’t. They’ve learned the stake is “unbreakable.” Resistance is futile.
Trump is the elephant who never got that memo. To him, the stake — the norms, the Constitution, the institutions — is a suggestion, not a restraint.
The bigger problem? Everyone else has now seen Trump become unmoored from accountability — with impunity. They imagine they can do it, too.
Republicans who used to quietly admire their own prudent “restraint” now believe they just lacked imagination. And Democrats are starting to believe that playing nice equates to playing dead.
And so, the stakes are coming out of the ground everywhere.
We used to imagine there was an invisible line — one that politicians wouldn’t cross out of shame, duty or fear of the abyss.
Turns out, the abyss has a DJ and an open bar. The people hurtling toward it aren’t falling. They’re soaring.
Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”
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Ideas expressed in the piece
Trump’s push for mid-decade congressional redistricting in Texas represents a dangerous departure from democratic norms, with the president treating the state like “a vending machine” where he can “insert redistricting, receive five shiny new Republican seats.” This represents Trump’s broader pattern of “procedural hardball” that includes firing officials for unfavorable data and using budget rescissions to renege on bipartisan agreements.
While technically legal, this redistricting effort exemplifies behavior that is “gross, petty and an announcement to the room that you’re not interested in living by any mutually agreed-upon standards.” The timing reveals purely political motivations rather than adherence to traditional redistricting cycles that follow census data.
The Texas gambit demonstrates “ambitious recklessness” that risks triggering a cycle of retaliation from blue states, potentially leading to “mutually assured destruction with ballots instead of missiles.” This escalation could ultimately result in minimal net gains while significantly damaging democratic institutions and processes.
The aggressive enforcement tactics, including civil arrest warrants and threats of bribery charges, create “powder keg vibes” that could escalate into interstate conflicts and further erode political norms. The episode represents a broader pattern where politicians are abandoning traditional restraints, with “stakes coming out of the ground everywhere.”
Trump’s approach reflects someone who views constitutional norms and institutions as mere suggestions rather than constraints, teaching others that abandoning traditional boundaries can be done “with impunity.” This creates a dangerous precedent where both parties increasingly believe that “playing nice equates to playing dead.”
Different views on the topic
Republican officials argue they have legitimate justification for redistricting based on electoral performance, with Trump claiming Republicans are “entitled to five more seats” because he “got the highest vote in the history of Texas” and won 27 of the state’s 38 congressional districts in 2024[2][4].
The redistricting effort addresses existing legal challenges, as the proposed map would dismantle four congressional districts that the U.S. Department of Justice said unconstitutionally combined Black and Hispanic voters, providing a legal rather than purely political rationale for the changes[3].
Mid-decade redistricting, while rare, is legally permissible and has been used before, with Republican lawmakers emphasizing that the new boundaries would reflect current political realities rather than outdated census data[1][3].
Strategic political considerations justify the move given Republicans’ historically narrow House majority of 219-212, where Democrats need to gain only three seats to retake control, making additional seats crucial for maintaining legislative effectiveness and advancing the Trump agenda[2].
Republican leaders frame the effort as necessary to maintain political competitiveness in a changing electoral landscape, with House Speaker Mike Johnson expressing confidence that the GOP would “defy history” and “grow the majority in the House” in the 2026 midterm elections despite traditional patterns favoring the opposition party[2].
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