Citi: Ten Things You Need to Know About Ratings in APAC before May Starts | 花旗：亚太区评级机构月度十大新鲜事·2022年5月刊
Country / Territory Theme
国家/地区主题
1. Following Sri Lanka’s announcement of debt servicing suspension on external public debt repayments on April 12, 2022, three rating agencies downgraded its long-term foreign currency ratings to ‘Ca/CC/C’ respectively. Rating agencies expected a series of sovereign defaults and S&P has further downgraded the rating to ‘SD’ on missed sovereign bond interest payments
1. 自斯里兰卡于2022年4月12日宣布暂停偿还外部公共债务后，三大评级机构分别将其长期外币评级下调至“Ca/CC/C”。 评级机构预计斯里兰卡主权债券会有多笔违约事件，而在2022年4月18日该国未支付主权债券利息之后，标普已将其评级进一步下调至“选择性违约”。斯里兰卡政府表示，将暂停偿还大多数类别的外部公共债务，以待与国际货币基金组织商讨潜在方案进行正式重组。鉴于斯里兰卡的外汇储备水平较低，加之燃料和食品价格上涨，以及旅游业和外国直接投资流入复苏缓慢，导致国际收支压力上升。最终债务重组可能导致私营部门债权人蒙受重大损失。
2. China’s zero-COVID stance is beginning to dent the country’s economy. Moody’s indicates that logistic service companies such as SF Express and Yunda will bear the brunt from Shanghai lockdown, since movement ban will reduce demand in this transport hub. The rising road logistics prices could also hit wider Chinese economy. S&P believes COVID lockdowns, slowing GDP growth, falling land sales, and looming maturity walls will compel local governments to be increasingly selective in extending support and could raise ratings volatility for weaker GREs. In the meantime, S&P expects overall impact on China’s broader financial system to be manageable, given the low NPL ratio and healthy NPL coverage of the commercial banks in Shanghai. That said, lenders with concentrated lending to firms in manufacturing and hospitality will be affected the most. This is because operation disruptions, high commodity prices, and inability to pass on price are squeezing such enterprises, especially SMEs. Fitch indicates that domestic and external consumer demand faces headwinds, accompanied by increased supply chain problems associated with movement restrictions. The growth in CPI has been below that of PPI, suggesting downstream corporates are under profitability pressure and absorbing upstream costs hike. Fitch also expects government could accelerate counter-cyclical policy support, notably in infrastructure investment, which tilts towards upstream industrial corporates who benefit from higher commodity prices.
2. 中国的动态清零政策对经济的影响逐步显现。穆迪表示，由于上海封城带来的交通停滞，顺丰、韵达等物流公司将首当其冲地受到影响。不断上涨的综合运输成本也可能对中国经济造成更广泛的冲击。标普认为，疫情封锁、GDP增长放缓、土地销售下降以及越来越多的债务到期，将迫使地方政府在提供支持上越来越有选择性，进而影响基层国企的信用质量。与此同时，标普预计中国金融体系所受影响总体可控，因为上海的商业银行的不良贷款率较低，不良贷款覆盖率也很健康；但即便如此，制造业和酒店业贷款较集中的银行可能承压，因为此类企业缺乏价格转嫁能力，特别是中小企业，在大宗商品价格上涨和日常运营受到影响的背景下日子尤为难过。惠誉指出，目前中国境内外消费需求面临阻力，同时出行限制导致的供应链问题也逐渐加剧。近期CPI 涨幅低于 PPI说明下游企业盈利压力较大，并替上游成本上涨背锅。惠誉还预计，政府可能会加快出台政策支持，尤其是在基础设施投资方面，政策也将向受益于大宗商品价格上涨的上游工业企业倾斜。
Industry Theme
行业主题
3. Moody's updated its China local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) methodology in order to provide better transparency around analytical approach on LGFVs’ increasing engagement in commercial activities. With China's focus on containing RLGs' contingent liabilities, most LGFVs have engaged in commercial activities to support their policy mandate, which is expected to drive further credit differentiation among LGFV issuers. In response to the business model evolution, Moody’s further divided the original Exposure to Commercial Activities sub-factor into two aspects, i.e. the Proportion of Commercial Activities and Riskiness of Commercial Activities. At the same time, weight given to these two sub-factors has increased from 33.3% to 40% under Business Profile factor and a wider notching on the same factor is allowed reflect relevant risk factors. There is no impact on current outstanding ratings as a result of the updated methodology.
3. 穆迪发布新版中国城投评级方法，其中特别对于城投日趋壮大的纯商业运营业务给出了更清晰透明的评级指引。由于中国愈发重视控制地方政府的或有负债，大多数城投愈发依靠纯商业运营业务来支撑政策性业务，预计这将导致众多城投之间的信用差异进一步加大。针对商业模式的演变，穆迪将原有的纯商业业务敞口子因素进一步划分为纯商业业务比例及其业务风险这两个方面。与此同时，这两个子因素在业务状况项下的权重从33.3%提高到40%，并调高了反映商业活动相关风险的信用评级下调级数限制。新版方法对现有城投评级没有任何影响。
4. Fitch published a special report on total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) debt in China and noted a very high probability of state support to prevent default on TLAC eligible senior debt issued by Chinese global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). Fitch is likely to align the ratings of TLAC senior debt to the issuer ratings, subject to final terms and conditions, considering the government has a long record of providing solvency and asset-quality support to the state banks. Fitch also expects China’s four G-SIBs (ICBC, BOC, CCB, ABC, all rated A/stable) to begin pilot issuance of TLAC senior debt in 2022 to meet TLAC requirements by January 2025. As CBIRC confirmed on April 29th that the Chinese TLAC instruments will be senior than Basel III capital instruments but subordinated to senior unsecured instruments, we expect Fitch to also consider notch up senior unsecured instrument ratings, especially if there is clarity that senior unsecured debt will be excluded from resolution.
4. 惠誉发布了针对中国总损失吸收能力（TLAC）债务的特别报告，认为政府支持将使中国全球系统重要性银行（G-SIB）的TLAC高级债务发生违约的可能性很低。考虑到政府长期以来一直为四大行提供偿付能力和资产质量支持，尽管最终TLAC债务条款尚未面世，惠誉很有可能将TLAC高级债务评级与发行人评级等同。惠誉还预计，中国的四家G-SIB将于2022年开始试点发行TLAC高级债务，以便到2025年1月满足TLAC要求。银保监会于 4 月 29 日发文称，中国TLAC 债将优先于巴塞尔协议 III 资本工具但劣后于高级无抵押债务。鉴于此，我们认为惠誉将在将TLAC债券评级与四大行评级等同的基础上，分析高级无抵押债务是否明确被排除在银行处置机制之外，进而决定是否有必要进一步提高高级无抵押债务的评级。
5. S&P opines that Asia-Pacific's energy transition will be an uphill task with nearly as high as 70% reliance on fossil fuel-based generation. To complicate the transition is the growing power demand, evolving energy policies, awaited technological developments and requirement of significant capital investments for most Asia-Pacific power utilities. The huge capex investments into renewables will stretch the financials of rated utilities, resulting in downside rating pressure for companies that adopt more aggressive leverage. China and Indonesia's policy-led energy transition will contrast with private sector-led renewable investments in India and Australia. State government policies and incentives will play a bigger role in Australia whereas in India federal policies will lead the way. The agency expects nuclear power to play a crucial role in China's decarbonization strategy. S&P projects China's nuclear power capacity will expand by about 7% annually up to 2035; doubling its share of total power to about 10% over the period. However, overall coal will remain relevant in the generation mix in Asia-Pacific unless greener technologies become a cheaper and equally stable form of power or if financial aid from developed nations can help the region decarbonize faster.
5. 标普认为，鉴于亚太地区对化石燃料发电的依赖度高达70%，能源转型将难于上青天。不断增长的电力需求、不断变化的能源政策、技术更新减缓，以及大多数亚太电力公用事业公司需要大量资本投资等因素使转型更加复杂。投入可再生能源的巨额资本支出将导致受评公用事业公司的财务状况捉襟见肘，采用较激进杠杆的公司将承受评级下调压力。中国和印尼政策主导的能源转型将与印度和澳大利亚私营部门主导的可再生能源投资形成鲜明对比；而澳大利亚州政府和印度联邦也都推出了不同程度的激励政策和措施。标普预计核电将在中国的减碳战略中发挥关键作用： 2035年前，中国的核电装机容量将以每年约7%的速度增长；在此期间，核电占电力总量的份额将翻一番，达到约10%。然而，煤炭在亚太地区的发电能源组合中仍将占有重要地位，除非绿色技术成本下降且同样稳定，或者发达国家的财政援助可以帮助该地区更快地实现减碳。
Key Rating Actions
主要评级行动
6. PT Freeport Indonesia (‘PTFI’), one of the largest copper and gold mines in the world, has been assigned a first time rating of Baa3 and BBB- with stable outlook from Moody’s and Fitch respectively. The ratings are assigned on the basis of PTFI’s standalone credit profile, driven by the Company’s large production scale and reserves, long mine life, solid cost position and robust financial metrics. Nevertheless, the ratings also got the benefit from having strong shareholders – Inalum (Baa2/BBB-) and Freeport McMoRan (Baa3/BBB-) and for being a highly strategic assets for the Indonesia economy. Citi acted as the Joint Global Coordinator and Ratings Advisor to the first time issuer to achieve the IG rating which enabled an issuance of US$3.0Bn bond, well within the target coupon rate – becoming one of the largest APAC first time US$ corporate bond issuances in 2022.
6. 世界上最大的铜金矿之一PT Freeport Indonesia (“PTFI”) 分别获得穆迪和惠誉授予 Baa3 和 BBB- 的首次评级，展望为稳定。 评级主要基于PTFI的独立信用状况，其得益于公司庞大的生产规模和储量、较长的矿山寿命、稳健的成本状况和稳健的财务表现。同时，公司优秀的股东背景——Inalum（Baa2/BBB-）和Freeport McMoRan（Baa3/BBB-），及其资产对印尼经济的高度战略意义也为最终结果增色。花旗担任公司的联席全球协调人以及联席评级顾问，帮助公司首评即迈进投资级，并乘此势头成功发行了30亿美元债券，且利率远低于预期，成为2022年亚太区最大的首次美元公司债券发行之一。
7. Bosideng, a leading China-based down apparel seller, has published Baa3/BBB- initial ratings by Moody’s and S&P with stable outlook. Bosideng’s ratings are supported by its long operating history, strong brand name, solid financial metrics and excellent liquidity through business cycles. However, moderate business scale, inherent seasonality in the down apparel business, as well as social risks related to the use of downs constrain the rating.
7. 中国领先的羽绒服公司波司登公布了穆迪和标普的Baa3/BBB-首次评级，展望为稳定。波司登的评级得益于其悠久的经营历史、强大的品牌知名度、稳健的财务指标以及跨越商业周期的出色流动性。然而，业务规模偏小、羽绒服这一产品固有的季节性，以及与使用羽绒相关的社会风险共同成为最终评级的限制因素。
8. First Pacific Company Limited, a Hong Kong-based investment holding company with interests in consumer food products (Indonesia), telecommunications, and infrastructure (Philippines), got a first time rating of Baa3 and BBB- with stable outlook from Moody’s and S&P respectively. The rating is driven by a portfolio of liquid, high quality, and moderately diversified steady dividend yielding assets. The rating reflect the weighted average credit quality of the key portfolio companies which form more than 90% of the AUM and contribute close to 98% of First Pacific’s dividend income – Indofood Sukses Makmur (50.1% ownership) with its 80.5%-owned subsidiary, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (Baa3), PLDT Inc. (25.6% ownership; Baa2/BBB+), and Metro Pacific Investment Corporation (44.6% effective interest). As the largest shareholder, First Pacific has significant influence over the business strategies and financial management of these companies including their dividend policy– a key for the Baa3/BBB- rating.
8. 总部位于香港的投资控股公司——第一太平有限公司分别获得穆迪和标普的Baa3和BBB-的首次评级，展望为稳定。上述投资级评级主要得益于其资产组合的流动性、高质量和多元化的稳定收益。该评级也反映了其投资组合内主要公司的加权平均信用质量，这些公司占第一太平资产管理规模的90%以上，并贡献了近98%的股息收入，其中包括Indofood Sukses Makmur（拥有50.1%股权）及其持股 80.5%的子公司、Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur（Baa3）、PLDT Inc.（拥有25.6%股权；Baa2/BBB+）和Metro Pacific Investment Corporation（拥有44.6%实际权益）。作为上述公司的最大股东，第一太平对这些公司的业务战略和包括股息政策在内的财务管理有重大影响力，这也进一步支撑了Baa3/BBB-的评级水平。
ESG Theme
ESG 主题
9. IFRS’ sustainability department, the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), established at COP26 to develop a comprehensive global baseline of sustainability disclosures
9. 在COP26上成立，隶属于国际财务报告准则基金会，旨在为资本市场制定全面的全球可持续发展基准的国际可持续发展标准理事会（ISSB），发布了创始版企业可持续发展披露指南征求意见稿。该征求意见稿包含了一份可持续发展一般披露要求和一份气候相关（特别是温室气体排放）的披露要求。上述征求意见稿以气候相关财务披露工作组（TCFD）的建议为基础，并纳入了SASB标准中基于行业的披露要求。该征求意见稿的发布旨在整合全球各界对于企业可持续发展披露报告的要求，将它们统一成全球一致的标准。意见征求期将持续到今年的7月29 日，并旨在2022年底定稿。
10. Moody’s recently expanded ESG Issuer Profile Score (IPS) and Credit Impact Score (CIS) to several additional sectors, including manufacturing, aerospace and defense, retail and apparel, construction, and building materials, in addition to a range of government, financial institutions, and corporate sectors already covered. The latest new scores show overall neutral to low or moderately negative credit impact on most consumer goods companies, while the credit impact of ESG is very highly negative for tobacco companies. In the meantime, Fitch further extended its Climate Vulnerability Scores (Climate.VS) across all corporate sectors globally, after its initiation coverage for the utilities, oil and gas, and chemicals sectors in 2021, previously branded as ESG.VS. Climate.VS measures the climate transition risk under a scenario of a 1.8-2.0°C warmer climate by 2050. The Climate.VS score is measured on a sector level and derived based on the Forecast Policy Scenario, released most recently in October 2021 by the UN PRI.The Climate.VS score is not linked to credit rating of issuers; instead, it provides a longer-term measurement of climate risk vulnerability of issuer and their debt instruments.
10. 穆迪近期将ESG发行人状况评分（IPS）和信用影响评分（CIS）进一步推广到制造业、航天与国防、零售与服装，以及建筑与建材行业。穆迪认为，ESG对大多数消费品公司的整体信用影响为中性至低或中度负面，而对烟草公司的信用影响则非常负面。与此同时，自2021年在公用事业、石油和天然气以及化工行业试点ESG脆弱性评分后，惠誉评级将该评分更名为气候脆弱性评分 (Climate.VS) ，并推广到所有受评企业。惠誉的气候脆弱性评分旨在衡量在2050年升温1.8-2.0摄氏度情景下的气候转型风险，基于联合国负责任投资原则（PRI）于2021年10月发布的最新预测，综合考虑行业要素后得出。Climate.VS评分与发行人的信用评级无关，而是旨在提供对发行人及其债务工具的中长期风险，特别是长年期债券的相应气候风险提供观点。
Bonus:
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S&P has revised Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’ in recognition of the country’s improved external position and gradual progress toward fiscal consolidation. The current ratings of BBB/Stable reflects the economy's solid growth prospects and historically prudent policy dynamics. These strengths are balanced by Indonesia's low GDP per capita, moderate stock of public debt, and costs associated with servicing the debt relative to the government's limited revenue base. The Indonesian government's debt has stabilized following a notable increase in 2020. However, the interest burden is likely to remain elevated as interest rates rise over the next one to two years. At the same time, Indonesia's narrow net external debt metrics have improved considerably, underpinned by constructive terms-of-trade dynamics. Indonesia is at Baa2/Stable and BBB/Stable from Moody’s and Fitch respectively. The sovereign outlook revision has led the outlook revision of three rated Indonesian companies, Pertamina (BBB), PLN (BBB), and PT Astra (BBB+) to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’.
标普考虑到印尼外债和财政状况改善，将印度尼西亚的主权评级展望从“负面”调整至“稳定”。当前BBB/稳定展望的标普评级反映了印尼稳健的经济增长前景和长期审慎的财政政策。另一方面，标普也注意到，印尼的人均GDP较低，公共债务存量适中但政府收入有限。2020年，印尼政府债务大幅增加，目前趋于稳定；然而随着未来一到两年利率上升，利息负担可能会持续加重。与此同时，在有利贸易条件的支持下，印尼的狭义净外债指标已显著改善。印尼的穆迪和惠誉评级分别为Baa2/稳定和BBB/稳定。主权展望回稳也导致三家受评的印尼公司Pertamina（BBB）、PLN（BBB）和PT Astra（BBB+）的展望从“负面”回到“稳定”。
S&P has upgraded Taiwan’s rating from ‘AA’ to ‘AA+’, mainly due to Taiwan’s strong economic performance on the back of robust demand for its electronics exports, which is raising income to levels compatible with a stronger economic assessment. S&P indicated that rising geopolitical tensions pose headwinds to Taiwan's export-reliant economy, but is unlikely to derail growth in its competitive manufacturing sector. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digitization globally and increased demand for Taiwan's semiconductor exports. As a result of this sovereign upgrade, Taoyuan Airport and Taiwan Power are in turn upgraded by one notch. Taiwan’s ratings are at Aa3/Positive and AA/Stable from Moody’s and Fitch respectively.
标普考虑到台湾地区电子产品出口需求旺盛，经济表现强劲推高居民收入，将台湾地区评级从“AA”上调至“AA+”。与此同时，标普表示，由于台湾经济对出口依赖较高，地缘政治的紧张局势可能带来影响，但不太可能在其具有竞争力的制造业领域制约增长。同时，疫情也加速了全球数字化进程，并增加了对台湾半导体出口的需求。受台湾地区评级上升影响，桃园机场和台电的评级也对应上调一级。目前台湾地区的穆迪和惠誉评级分别为Aa3/正面和AA/稳定。
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Source: Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, Sustainalytics, MSCI
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