As the Economic Dust Begins to Settle, What is Getting Clearer?

This is an important week for economic indicators. What’s driving the markets right now, and in what direction? The news has already begun to come in, and by the end of the week we’ll have updates on GDP, tariffs, inflation, and employment data. 

How can business use this information to predict the future and choose a course of action? And how will these forces shape leaders’ goals and strategies? 

While the numbers we do have so far are less dramatic than expected, do they reflect the underlying strength of the market or are they, as this commentator argues, a sign of distorted data and instability?

In this issue of The Navigator, we dive into these questions and more.

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Spotlight: Crisis or Catalyst? The Future of our Economy

In this essay, Cascade Engineering founder Fred Keller  calls on corporate leaders to take stock of the economy as a whole and do what they do best: build a path to change.

“At a time when the economy feels at best unstable, at worst approaching a crisis, there is one thing for sure – we need to design the next phase of our economy, and we need to do it now. What is needed is an economy that works for everyone – no one knows for sure how to do that… yet; but find it we must.”

News Roundup

1. Where Is the Economy Going? A ‘Monster Week’ of News Could Help Decide. (The New York Times: Ben Casselman , Colby Smith ) Is the US economy “surprisingly resilient” or are cracks “beginning to form”? This week will tell us a lot about how the economy is weathering recent policy shifts, and what that means for the future. (gift article)
2. EU and US Rush to Nail Down Final Details, Lock in Trade Deal (Bloomberg: Jorge Valero Galarreta ) As pressure around trade comes to a head, is the US winning? How, and when, will we know? (also see US Will Be Biggest Loser From Trade ‘Wins’)
3. Why Are Stocks at Record Highs Despite Looming Tariffs? (NPR: Rafael Nam ) Why aren’t traditional triggers causing concern in the market? Is this the latest version of “irrational exuberance”? (also see what worries Tom Steyer about the market)
4. CEOs Are Shrinking Their Workforces—and They Couldn’t Be Prouder (WSJ: Chip Cutter ) Are companies right to tout “head-count discipline” or does this short-term stat ignore potential long-term impacts? (also see The End of Work as We Know It)
5. How Are Businesses Preparing for the August 1 Tariff Deadline? They Can’t (CNN Business: Vanessa Yurkevich ) As tariffs add increasing unpredictability, what can business do to navigate rising pressures? (also see Are Tariffs Driving Prices Up? Here’s What We Know and Kicking the Can Down the Road on Tariffs Won’t Work for This Maryland Manufacturer)
6. Now Is the Time for Courage (HBR: Ranjay Gulati ) “In challenging circumstances, why do some leaders make daring moves while others hesitate?” (gift article)

Also on Our Radar

What else caught our attention this week?

• We’re watching the latest on the EPA’s endangerment rule and a push against climate NGOs: The EPA Says Carbon Pollution Isn’t Dangerous. What Comes Next? and Florida Attorney General Subpoenas CDP and SBTi.
• In the wake of the recent shooting in Manhattan, What Does It Cost to Keep Workers Safe?
• Climate Activism at Amazon, Bath & Body Works, and Pinterest
• The Outside-In Perspective: Business Insights From a NASA Astronaut

Thanks for reading, forwarding and following. We’ll see you next week!

— The Business & Society Navigators

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Founded in 1998, the Aspen Institute Business & Society Program works to align business decisions and investments with the long-term health of society—and the planet.