The Trans-Pacific Balancing Act: Rates, Port Congestion & Airfreight Rebound

Trans-Pacific Spot Rates Dip as U.S.-China Imports Fall Despite Carrier Optimism

On April 9th, the China-US trade lane looked bleak. Orders froze, factories hit pause, and ocean carriers slammed the brakes–blanking sailings and sidelining capacity after Liberation Day tariffs came roaring back. Then came the twist.

On May 12th, the Trump administration announced a surprise 90-day suspension, and the market reacted sharply. Carriers, anticipating a surge of front-loaded demand, rushed capacity back into the market. Multiple niche carriers joined the bandwagon and launched services on the trans-Pacific, and the spot rates surged as carriers scrambled to cash in. It almost looked like a comeback.

• Shanghai to LAX spot rates surged from $3,500 to over $6,000 before retreating to around $2,900.
• IPI lanes to Chicago peaked near $8,000 before settling at $6,025.

Booking windows shrank. Surcharges crept in. It felt like Q3 2021 all over again. Except this time, the containers never came. As spot rates soared, weekly volumes (TEUs) from China kept falling. 

The chart below, plotted using Silq’s Spot Rate Index, shows the rollercoaster ride the spot market experienced over the last 15 weeks.

“China-US container volumes plunged 30-40% in April as customers reacted ‘very, very fast’ to tariffs,” - Vincent Clerc, Maersk CEO 

“It resembles early‑pandemic disruption…importers are drawing down inventories,” Sea‑Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy noted, warning of rapid reversals in niche-capacity trends.

U.S. imports from China dropped 20.8% in May–the steepest monthly decline since March 2020. Both East and West Coast ports saw cancellations spike, with West Coast blank sailings hitting over 40% of planned capacity by early May, heading into June.

Silq’s Take: Rate Hype ≠ Cargo in the Hold

The data clearly shows that we’re in a rate spike, volume drop scenario, not a peak season. Carriers are floating aggressive rates based on a comeback that never happened. Here's what importers should do now:

• Leverage the coastal spread. With geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean pushing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, transit times to the East Coast have ballooned to over 40 days. Meanwhile, spot rates to the West Coast are falling. For many importers, it makes more sense to route to LA/LB, transload, and truck inland, reaching the East Coast in nearly half the time, with only a marginal increase in cost compared to all-water services. 
• Avoid locking in long-term deals. Continue to leverage the spot market while contracts attempt to find a new floor amid the influx of new carrier capacity flooding the market.

Port Congestion in Asia: When Empty Boxes Become the Bottleneck

While volumes may be softening globally, Asian ports are jammed. Singapore, Shanghai, Port Klang, and other ports are experiencing berthing delays of 3-5 days, with some transshipment cargo delayed by up to two weeks. This is the ripple effect of a 90-day tariff cooldown: cargo was rushed out, carriers redeployed ships to the trans-Pacific, and Asia’s terminal networks buckled.

Key drivers include: 

• Vessel Bunching: Delays at upstream ports have triggered a domino effect across Asia’s terminal network, resulting in simultaneous vessel arrivals and growing berthing queues. As of mid-June, 62 ships were waiting to berth at Shanghai (nearly double the count from just two weeks earlier), according to Portcast’s ship tracking index. Terminals in Singapore and Port Klang are facing similar congestion due to the surge in unscheduled arrivals, as cited by the Journal of Commerce.
• Capacity Reallocation: Carriers are shifting vessels from Asia-Europe to the trans-Pacific, chasing more substantial returns amid the U.S. tariff pause. As a result, Asia-Europe capacity dropped 17% in the week of June 16 compared to the end of May. This reallocation is straining capacity across other trade lanes, particularly intra-Asia and backhaul routes, according to HSBC’s weekly transportation update.
• Empty Container Shortages: Prolonged transshipment delays, lasting up to two weeks in Singapore, are disrupting the repositioning of empty containers back to manufacturing hubs, such as China. According to Kuehne + Nagel, this logjam is blocking inland access to equipment, leaving exporters scrambling to secure containers in time for vessel cut-offs. 
• U.S. Gulf Port Congestion: Houston’s port complex, the largest on the Gulf Coast, is experiencing its own constraints. A surge in runway construction—and accompanying expansion of I‑45 truck lanes—has pushed the I‑45/I‑69 freight corridor to the third‑worst national bottleneck, according to the American Transportation Research Institute, slowing drayage operations to and from the port. Meanwhile, Houston’s terminals are limiting on‑dock laden exports due to ship backlogs and scheduling issues

Even with demand cooling, operational disruption is driving prices up, and transit times are unreliable. This isn't just a capacity issue–it’s a network fluidity crisis.

Silq Recommendations for Importers:

• Split Bookings Strategically: Consider dual-routing between direct and transshipment lanes to hedge delay risk.
• Container Availability Monitoring: Proactively track equipment pools, especially at secondary Chinese and Southeast Asian ports.
• Plan for Delays, Not Just Rates: Transit variability is now the key cost driver. Lock in buffer days and prep contingency legs (e.g., trucking from alternate ports inland).

Jet Lagged: Air Freight Rises on One Front, Stalls on Another

The air freight market is showing early signs of recovery, particularly on the trans-Pacific lane, as shippers hedge against ocean delays and retailers accelerate pre-tariff stocking. But beneath that rebound lies a fractured picture–one of cautious freighter redeployment, diminishing ecommerce uplift, and mounting structural constraints in the heavy-lift segment.

What’s Driving the Divergence:

• Freighters Return, But Warily

Trans-Pacific freighter capacity is slowly coming back online. Airlines are responding to restocking demand and seasonal shipments, ranging from tech products to semiconductors and perishables. According to data from Rotate, air cargo capacity on the Asia-North America lane rose by 11% in early June compared to the previous four-week average. 

However, Cargo Facts Consulting notes that China-US tonnage was still down 25% year-over-year in mid-May, and overall freighter capacity on the lane was down 40%. As a result, carriers remain cautious, balancing limited lift with uncertainty around trade policies as the 90-day tariff pause nears its expiration.

• Ecommerce Drag

Ecommerce, once the lifeblood of China-US air freight, comprising roughly 50% of volumes in 2024, according to Xeneta–has taken a hit. In May, the U.S. eliminated the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments under $800 and introduced a $100 flat fee per parcel from China. 

As stated by the Journal of Commerce, Oliver von Tronchin, head of freighter marketing at Airbus, warned that these changes could fundamentally reshape low-value parcel economics, noting, “If a $2.75 item is left with a $100 flat fee, people will not buy that item.” The immediate result: a steep pullback in lightweight, high-frequency parcel traffic, eroding a major pillar of air cargo demand.

• Heavy-Lift Constraints Loom

The An-124 fleet, central to oversized air cargo, is nearing the end of its life. Sanctions stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shrunk the available global fleet by 60% since 2022, according to Antonov Airlines. With no viable manufacturing pipeline, forwarders warn that military, aerospace, and energy sector shippers may face longer lead times or be forced into dismantling strategies or ocean alternatives to move critical cargo.

Air Cargo’s Fragmented Recovery: A Two-Speed Rebound Across Sectors & Lanes

Asia-North America volumes rose 11% in early June, driven by restocking and seasonal demand for tech and perishables (Rotate). Meanwhile, ecommerce, once 50% of China-US air freight, has slumped, following the U.S. rollback of duty-free exemptions and the new $100 flat fee per parcel.

While trans-Pacific lift is returning, freighter capacity on China-US routes remains 40% below last year's levels, with overall tonnage down 25%. Other trade lanes show little recovery. With tariff deadlines approaching, time-sensitive cargo is at risk of being squeezed, especially on constrained lanes.

In the longer term, Boeing and Airbus forecast 3-4% annual air freight growth through 2045; however, short-term uncertainty remains high amid volatile demand and a mismatched supply.