Engineer of 2020 powerpoint

THE ENGINEER OF 2020
VISIONS OF ENGINEERING IN THE
NEW CENTURY

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
• National Academy of Sciences （美国）国家
科学院)
• National Academy of Engineering (国家工程
学院)
• Institute of Medicine (医学研究所)
• National Research Council (国家研究委员会)

Preface
The Engineer of 2020 Project centers on an
effort to envision the future (设想未来) and to
use that knowledge to attempt to predict (预
测)the roles that engineers will play in the
future.

Main parts
The project consists of two main parts:
1. relating to the development of a vision for
engineering and the work of the engineer in
2020. (工程的愿景和工程师的工作)
2. examining engineering education and ask
what it needs to do to prepare engineers for
the future. (检查工程教育)

Scenario-based strategic planning (基于场景的
战略规划)was employed to work on this based
on developments in
• Nanotechnology米技术
• Biotechnology生物技术
• Materials材料
• Computing计算机
• Logistics物流

The scenarios examine transformational changes
that could derive from life- altering
developments across several technological
fronts, dramatic breakthroughs(突破性进展)in
biotechnology, a major natural disaster, and
world division driven by growth in religious
fundamentalism.(宗教原教旨主义)

Ahead lies the challenge of considering what
engineering students should learn in the
university to prepare for the future and how this
might differ from what is taught today.
(Note how is our education system at this point
preparing us for the future ?)

Contents
1. Executive Summary概要
2. Technological Context of Engineering
Practice工程实践的技术背景
3. Societal, Global, and Professional Contexts社
会、全球和专业背景of Engineering practice
4. Aspirations愿望for the Engineer of 2020
5. Attributes属性of Engineers in 2020
6. Scenarios情节

Executive Summary
In the past, changes in the engineering profession
and engineering education have followed changes
in technology and society. Disciplines科目were
added and curricula课程were created to meet the
critical challenges in society and to provide the
workforce required to integrate new developments.
Today’s landscape is little different; society
continually changes and engineering must adapt to
remain relevant. (工程必须适应仍然相关。)

A few Questions to consider:
• “What will or should engineering be like in 2020?”
• Will it be a reflection of the engineering of today and
its past growth patterns or will it be fundamentally
different?
• can the engineering profession play a role in shaping
its own future?
• Can a future be created where engineering has a
broadly recognized image that celebrates the exciting
roles that engineering and engineers play in
addressing societal and technical challenges?

Dubai air conditioned city迪拜空调城

The 8-million-square-foot(800万平方英尺)shopping
center, dubbed Mall of the World世界的购物中心,
will include 100 hotels, a medical resort, event
facilities, and a theater district—all of which can be
shielded from the elements by a large retractable
roof. (伸缩的屋顶。)
the city has unveiled
plans to build the
largest mall and
biggest indoor
theme park in what
will be the first
temperature-
controlled mini-city.

• How can engineers best be educated to be leaders,
able to balance the gains afforded by new
technologies with the vulnerabilities created by their
byproducts without compromising the well-being of
society and humanity?
• Will engineering be viewed as a foundation that
prepares citizens for a broad range of creative career
opportunities?
• Will engineering reflect and celebrate the diversity of
all the citizens in our society?

Scenarios considered
1. The Next Scientific Revolution,未来的科学革
命
2. The Biotechnology Revolution,生物技术革命
3. The Natural World,自然世界and
4. Global Conflict全球冲突or Globalization全球
化?

The Next Scientific Revolution
Offers an optimistic future where change is
principally driven by developments in
technology. It is assumed that the future will
follow a predictable path where technologies
that are on the horizon today are developed to a
state where they can be used in commercial
applications and their role is optimized to the
benefit of society.

The Biotechnology Revolution
speaks to a specific area of science and
engineering that holds great potential but
considers a perspective where political and
societal implications could intervene in its use.
In this version of the future, issues that impact
technological change beyond the scope of
engineering become significant e.g transgenic
foods

The Natural World
Recognizes that events originating beyond man’s
control, such as natural disasters, can still be a
determinate in the future. While in this case the role of
future engineers and new technologies will be
important to speeding a recovery from a disastrous
event, it also can help in improving our ability to
predict risk and adapt systems to prepare for the
possibilities to minimize impact.

Japan’s after earthquake response

Global Changes
the influence of global changes, can impact the future
through conflict or, more broadly, through globalization.
Engineering is particularly sensitive to such issues
because it speaks through an international language of
mathematics, science, and technology. Today’s
environment, with issues related to terrorism and job
outsourcing, illustrates why this scenario is useful to
consider in planning for the future.

Body of Report
• Chapter 1:
Sets the stage for likely future technological
changes and challenges未来技术变革 that will
impact the world and the engineering profession.
The impact will be seen in medical breakthroughs,
new energy devices, materials with characteristics
not available today, remarkable light sources, and
next-generation computers and
telecommunications developments.

• Chapter 2
This addresses the societal, geopolitical, and
professional contexts社会、地缘政治和专业背景
within which engineering and its new technologies will
exist.
characterized by rapid population growth, Growth will
be concentrated in less developed countries where a
“youth bulge青年膨胀” will occur, while in advanced
countries the population will age. Issues related to
quality of life in some countries will be contrasted with
more basic problems like access to water and housing
in others.

• Chapter 3
The purpose of this is to identify those basic themes
we can agree are worth striving for if engineering is
to be a positive force in the future.
Chapter 4
sets forth the attributes needed for the graduates
of 2020. These include such traits as strong
analytical skills, creativity, ingenuity,
professionalism, and leadership.

The engineering profession therefore
must :
1) agree on an exciting vision令人激动的设想for its future;
2) transform engineering education to help achieve the
vision;
3) build a clear image of the new roles for engineers一个清
晰的图像新角色的工程师, including as broad-based
technology leaders, in the mind of the public and
prospective students who can replenish and improve the
talent base of an aging engineering workforce;
4) accommodate innovative developments适应创新发展
from non-engineering fields; and
5) find ways to focus the energies集中精力of the different
disciplines of engineering toward common goals.

Technological Context of Engineering Practice
工程实践的技术背景
Technological Change
A most elegant description is that engineering is
about design under constraint.
工程是设计在约束条件下
Technological innovations occur when a need arises
or an opportunity presents itself.
They occur as a result of private initiative or
government intervention.
“Indeed necessity is the mother of all innovation”
需求才是创新之父。

Inventor:Elisha Graves Otis
Criteria;First to invent. First to patent. First practical. Entrepreneur.
Birth:August 3, 1811 in Halifax, Vermont
Death:April 8, 1861 in Yonkers, New York
Nationality:American
Invents the elevator and the elevator safety
System (电梯安全系统)
One that we enjoy today as we move up and
Down tall buildings in our daily lives.

Every once in a while the problems of the
contemporary world view become so
unworkable that reinventing the map 重新画地
图is needed.
We are also seeing a new relationship between
the macroscopic world we inhabit every day and
the microscopic world at a molecular, atomic,
and even subatomic level. E.g. subatomic data
storage (Awschalom et al., 2002).

“Spintronics” by David D. Awschalom
et al.
自旋电子学(Spintronics)是一使电子充电
和旋转均能用于携带信息的新技术，由
于其广泛的应用潜力引发业界的强烈关
注。

Old World View New World View
took a builder to make a
machine someone outside with
a plan and ability to create
self-replication自我复制 is a new
model of change.
In biology, self-replication is the norm Now in nanotechnology
and potentially in very smart computer systems, we are
beginning to contemplate self-replication in nonorganic systems,
and, indeed, runaway self-replication is seen as a threat by
some. (See Transcendence movie(超验骇客电影)

Self-Replication
Nano-Construction

Breakthrough Technologies
• Biotechnology
• Nanotechnology
• Material science and Photonics
• Information and Communication technology
• The Information explosion
• Logistics

Biotechnology
• Research in tissue engineering and regenerative
medicine may lead to new technology that will
allow our bodies to replace injured or diseased
parts without invasive surgery, but rather by
using the natural growth processes inherent in
cells.
• we may see the use of nanoscale robots, or
nanobots, to repair tissue tears or clean clogged
arteries. Nanobots might be used to target drugs
that can destroy cancers or change cell structures
to combat genetically inherited diseases.

Nano-scale medicine
纳米医学

Nanotechnology
TABLE 1 Challenges Identified for the National Nanotechnology Initiative
Time Frame Strategic Challenge
Nano-Now • Pigments in paints
• Cutting tools and wear resistant coatings
• Pharmaceuticals and drugs
• Nano-scale particles and thin films in electronic devices
• Jewelry, optical, and semiconductor wafer polishing
Nano-2007 • Biosensors, transducers, and detectors
• Functional designer fluids
• Propellants, nozzles, and valves
• Flame retardant additives
• Drug delivery, bio-magnetic separation, and wound healing
Nano-2012 • Nano-optical, Nano-electronics, and Nano-power sources
• High-end flexible displays
• Nano-bio materials as artificial organs
• NEMS-based devices

纳米微粒和纳米复合材料

碳纳米管在混凝土
多壁碳纳米管

750 F = 398.888889 C
1000 F = 537.777778 C

Quenching -淬火 Vanadium-钒 Molybdenum-钼
Tempering-回火
马氏体

Fumed silica-煅制氧化硅 passive solution-被动的解决方案
Thermo-chromic technologies-热变色的科技
active solution-主动的解决方案

Photochromic – 光色的 Tungsten oxide-氧化钨
Electrochromic－电致变色的

Lignocellulose-木质纤维素

Coatings-涂层
Hydrophobic-疏水的

Material science and Photonics
材料科学与光电
• Smart materials and structures, which have
the capability of sensing and responding, for
example, to displacements caused by
earthquakes and explosions, will be used
increasingly.

5 Major advancements in Material Sciences
1.Super Steel :Designed and being considered as a shielding
material for reactors,
as its higher resistance levels may be suitable for
withstanding extreme amounts
of heat and radiation. It is made by removal of irregularities
can affect
the internal magnetic properties of steel and lower its
resistance to heat.
Ultra-Strong Paper:tough, durable paper that can rival
metal in its tensile properties. aka “buckypaper,” this
new material is composed of exceptionally thin carbon
molecules. When stacked and compressed, the paper
composite can potentially exhibit hundreds of times the
strength of steel while remaining a tenth of the weight.
(超强度指）

3.Nanomaterials纳米材料：Potential military applications might be the most “sci-fi” of
nanotechnology developments. Some defense contractors are investing in
nanomaterial research to develop vehicles that could theoretically “heal”
themselves after being damaged.
4.Soft Lithography医]软光刻方法
5.Metamaterials超材料: these have a negative
refractive index that causes light to bend around
An object and in theory making it invisible. Unlike
existing stealth technology,
which reduces an aircraft’s radar profile,
metamaterial cloaking would cause
waves to bypass their target entirely, making a
vehicle invisible even to the human eye.

Information and Communications
Technology
What will happen in the foreseeable future?
Today a 1-gigabit hard drive ships in a package 1 ×
1 × 1/8 inches; soon that will be a 10-gigabit drive,
and computers small enough to fit into trouser
pockets will be able to contain information that
would fill a modern library (Feldman, 2001). The
speed and computing power of future desktop
machines and software will enable design and
simulation capabilities that will make the routine
activities of contemporary engineers obsolete,

The Information explosion
In the past, engineering responded to the
explosion in knowledge by continually
developing and spawning new areas of focus in
the various engineering disciplines. As more of
these areas arise, the depth of individual
knowledge increases, but the breadth can
dramatically decrease.

TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES
• Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings基础设施建
设在城市里
• Information and Communications Infrastructure
• The Environment
• Technology for an Aging Population (老年人口）

Assistive technology辅助技术
includes technologies in education,
rehabilitation, and independent living to help, to
change, or to train physically challenged citizens.
People of all ages with physical, cognitive, and
communication disorders, or a combination of
disabilities, may benefit from the application of
assistive technologies.
www.katsnet.org

IMPLICATIONS FOR ENGINEERING
EDUCATION
The Technology Explosion科技的爆炸
• Engineering education must avoid the cliché of
teaching more and more about less and less, until
it teaches everything about nothing.
The Pace of Change变化的速度
new “disruptive” technologies破坏性技术, and
makes older technologies obsolete at an increasing
rate. The comfortable notion that a person learns
all that he or she needs to know in a four-year
engineering program just is not true and never was.

Societal, Global, and Professional
Contexts of Engineering Practice
SOCIAL CONTEXT :
Population and Demographics
By the year 2020 the world’s population will
approach 8 billion people, and much of that
increase will be among groups that today are
outside the developed nations

Health and Health Care
In the developed world, it is plausible to believe that in 20
years pollution and air quality in urban environments will
be much improved, as will cleanup and control of
hazardous waste sites, and debilitating diseases, old and
new, driven by such environmental factors will have a
much reduced impact on human health. Health care
delivery in developing countries will continue to lag that
in the developed world, but well-focused efforts to
control AIDS and malaria may meet with increasing
success.

The Youth Bulge and Security Implications
Globally, more than 50 percent of the world’s
population could be less than 18 years old in
2020. The youth bulge is expected to be most
prominent in Sub- Saharan Africa, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Mexico, and countries of the Middle
East—all developing nations.

all regions of recent social and political tensions
exacerbated by an excess of idle youths unable
to find employment. As a consequence, the
world could face continuing social and political
unrest and threats from terrorism and
fundamentalism, creating an increased need for
military services and security measures

The Accelerating Global Economy 全球经济的加速
Fueled by rapidly improving educational capabilities
in countries like China and India and the availability
of highly skilled workers with engineering and
science backgrounds in these and other countries,
willing and able to work for wages well below those
in the developed nations.

In this new global economy, high-end services like
electronic design, applied research, accounting,
aerospace design, technical consulting, and x-ray
assessment can be done more economically outside
the developed world and the results transmitted
electronically back to the developed countries.
Many advanced engineering designs are
accomplished using virtual global teams—highly
integrated engineering teams comprised of
researchers located around the world.

PROFESSIONAL CONTEXT FOR
ENGINEERS IN THE FUTURE
The Systems Perspective
• Working in Teams 工作小组
• Complexity 复杂性: Engineers must know
how and when to incorporate social elements
into a comprehensive systems analysis of their
work.

Customerization 顾客化定制
customerization— a buyer-centric business
strategy that combines mass customization with
customized marketing (Wind and Rangaswamy,
2000).
This will demand the social interaction of
engineers with customers, even more
demanding that engineers have well-developed
people skills.

New tools in manufacturing and production,
new knowledge about the products being
produced and the customers that use them, and
the ease with which information and products
can be transferred will enable the creation of
products and services that are uniquely
designed for the user.
Thus eradicating the mass-production-
outsourcing low-wage jobs

Public Policy
Engineers should have a stronger sense of how
technology and public policy interact.

IMPLICATIONS FOR ENGINEERING
EDUCATION
• An aging population
• The Global economy: People will go for
cheaper labor- China and India
• The Five- or Six-Year Professional Degree

Aspirations for the Engineer of 2020
VISIONS OF THE COMMITTEE
• By 2020, we aspire to a public that will understand and
appreciate the profound impact of the engineering profession
on sociocultural systems, the full spectrum of career
opportunities accessible through an engineering education,
and the value of an engineering education to engineers
working successfully in non-engineering jobs.
• We aspire to a public that will recognize the union of
professionalism, technical knowledge, social and historical
awareness, and traditions that serve to make engineers
competent to address the world’s complex and changing
challenges.

• We aspire to engineers in 2020 who will remain well
grounded in the basics of mathematics and science, and who
will expand their vision of design through a solid grounding in
the humanities, social sciences, and economics. Emphasis on
the creative process will allow more effective leadership in
the development and application of next-generation
technologies to problems of the future.
• By 2020 we aspire to engineers who will assume leadership
positions from which they can serve as positive influences in
the making of public policy and in the administration of
government and industry.

• We aspire to a future where engineers are prepared to adapt
to changes in global forces and trends and to ethically assist
the world in creating a balance in the standard of living for
developing and developed countries alike.
• It is our aspiration that engineering educators and
practicing engineers together undertake a proactive effort
to prepare engineering education to address the
technology and societal challenges and opportunities of the
future. With appropriate thought and consideration, and
using new strategic planning tools, we should reconstitute
engineering curricula and related educational programs to
prepare today’s engineers for the careers of the future,
with due recognition of the rapid pace of change in the
world and its intrinsic lack of predictability.

Attributes of Engineers in 2020
• The pace of technological innovation will continue to be
rapid (most likely accelerating).
• The world in which technology will be deployed will be
intensely globally interconnected.
• The population of individuals who are involved with or
affected by technology (e.g., designers, manufacturers,
distributors, users) will be increasingly diverse and
multidisciplinary.
• Social, cultural, political, and economic forces will continue
to shape and affect the success of technological innovation.
• The presence of technology in our everyday lives will be
seam- less, transparent, and more significant than ever.

CONNECTIONS BETWEEN ENGINEERING PAST,
PRESENT, AND FUTURE
Engineers in 2020,like engineers of yesterday
and today, will possess:
• Strong analytical skills 分析能力强
• Practical ingenuity实用的智慧
• Creativity创造力
• Good communication良好的沟通
• Business and management
业务和管理

• Learn principles of Leadership
• High ethical standards and a strong sense of professionalism
• Given the uncertain and changing character of the world in
which 2020 engineers will work, engineers will need
something that cannot be described in a single word. It
involves dynamism, agility, resilience, and flexibility活力、
灵活性、弹性和灵活性。.
• Lifelong learners终身学习者

THE NEXT SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION :
Advancement in Chemistry, Physics , Biology
We can simulate chemical reactions and
structures that enable us to try many more
alternatives in virtual labs虚拟实验室 than we
could ever do in the real world.
Research proceeds faster and better.
We have new tools to see and manipulate
individual molecules.

IBM is currently building the world’s most
powerful computer, to be known as Blue
Gene, to simulate the complex three-
dimensional geometry and dynamics of
protein molecules.
Eric Drexler first articulated his vision of
nanotechnology in 1986, most physicists
derided it as implausible. Because of the
irrepressible movements of very small
things, you could never control them or
make them stable enough to build nano-
scale machines, even if nature did.
Fortunately, they were wrong. Nano-
science has moved from the wild fringes of
science to the mainstream faster than any
idea in history.

THE BIOTECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION IN A SOCIETAL
CONTEXT
• AIDS vaccine discovery艾滋病疫苗
• Biological weapons and new wars
• Brain-machine communication devices for
computers
• Alternatives to normal biological processes:
weight loss, replacement of internal organs
etc.

THE NATURAL WORLD INTERRUPTS THE TECHNOLOGY
CYCLE
• Natural disasters自然灾害
• Stock market collapse股票市场崩溃
• Diseases
• New breakthroughs in food production and disaster
control systems食品生产和灾害控制系统的新突破

GLOBAL CONFLICT OR GLOBALIZATION?
全球冲突或全球化?
• New terrorist attacks and the impact on the
world travel and business
• Fear of technology as a channel to terrorism
• Globalization due to isolation of the
developed world from the developing world

Conclusion
• The engineer of 2020 and beyond will face a
bewildering array of new technologies,
appearing at a rate that will bring his or her
professional qualifications constantly near
obsolescence.
• The engineering community will face a world
which is more connected than today,

• Aspirations and attributes listed here describe
engineers as broadly educated, see
themselves as global citizens, can lead in
business and public service, as well as in
research, development and design, are ethical
and inclusive of all segments of society. The
attributes include strong analytical skills,
creativity, ingenuity, professionalism, and
leadership.

References:
• The Top Ten Advances in Materials Science by Jonathan Wood Materials
Today, Dec. 19, 2007
• The ITER Project
• U.S. Beats Britain to Fusion Super Steel by Jason Mick Daily Tech, Oct. 28,
2008
• Reducing Steel, Increasing Profits by Sheila Bacon Structure Magazine,
January, 2006
• Revolutionary Paper is Stronger than Steel The Associated Press (via
CNN.com), Oct. 20, 2008
• High-Performance Materials Institute Florida State University
• The Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies August, 2008

• Nanotube “Longboats” Slaughter Cancer Cells New Scientist, Sept. 6, 2008
• Scientists Develop Magnetic Nanoparticle Contrast Agents for Blood Cells Phillips
Research, Oct. 2, 2008
• Lockheed Martin Looks to Nanotechnology by Antonie Boessenkool Defense
News, Sept. 12, 2008
• Protein-Printing Technique Gives Snapshots of Immune System Defense Science
Daily, Nov. 3, 2008
• Electromagnetic Metamaterials The Research Group of David R. Smith Duke
University, June 10, 2006
• Science of Invisibility’s Giant Leap Forward by Lynda Hurst Toronto Star, Oct. 25,
2008
• Nanotechnology in Civil Engineering by Niranjana.S
Oct, 22, 2009

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