Lecture 3: Systems dynamics. Domenico Dentoni, University of Parma
- 1. Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics University of Parma, November 2nd, 2016 Course: Agri-Food Chain Management
- 2. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important How does it work How to gather information How to map the information Criteria of evaluation Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systems Dynamics map!
- 3. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important How does it work How to gather information How to map the information Criteria of evaluation Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systems Dynamics map!
- 4. Two approaches to ag-food chain mgmt. Focal company or organization Customers, customers of customers Suppliers, suppliers of suppliers OBESITY MAFIA & CORRUPTION LAND, WATER, ENERGY SCARCITY POVERTY VIOLATION OF LABOR RIGHTS POOR ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY POOR ACCESS TO CREDIT WASTE MANAGEMENT & POLLUTION CRIME 2. Changing the broader system where ag-food chains are embedded (Dentoni et al. 2012; Senge et al. 2015)
- 5. Our Motto: Everyone is a Changemaker How can YOU engage in activities that make this CHANGE in or around food and agricultural chains?
- 6. How will YOU make change in ag-food? PART I: Understanding problems 1. PICK A PROBLEM THAT YOU WANT TO ADDRESS 2. VISION: IMAGINE YOUR DESIRED FUTURE IN A PERIOD BETWEEN 2020 and 2050 PART II: Social innovation & entrepreneurship PART III: Building partnerships PART IV: Continuous learning & change I. Describe the nature of the problem Start from YOUR GROUP’s IDEAS AND INTERESTS THROUGH YOUR GROUP PROJECT:
- 7. Lecture 2: Wicked Problems Cases: Three features of the problems: Mafia in agriculture Unsustainability and commodity markets Challenges in collective branding Have actors conflicting values? Has the problem many causes? Does the problem change over time?
- 8. STEP 1: Pick YOUR problem(s) You have brainstormed in small groups about problem(s) that you want to address! Let’s start from here… (e.g. corruption, distrust, uninnovative culture) from here… (e.g. collective branding) …or from here (e.g. IT solutions to combine food, tourism and education)
- 9. STEP 2: Sketch YOUR Vision You have imagined a vision for 2020 or up to 2050 An example? https://www.zingt rain.com/content /why-and-how- visioning-works
- 10. Activities and assessment How will activities and deadlines will be distributed along the course? See all the details on the course syllabus online here September October November December Course introduction (on September 19th); Lectures 1 & 2; Tutorial, formation of groups and case selection Individual study of assigned readings. Get acquainted with theory & methods prior to the lectures and tutorials in November! Intensive month of activities: 10 hours/week with Lectures (from 3 to 10); Tutorials, guest lectures and supervised group work; Close interaction with instructor in preparation for deliverables in December Final deadlines & assessment: Final presentations and role play (December 1st); Group report (December 6th); Individual short essay (December 9th)
- 11. Activities and assessment How will activities will be distributed along your week (from November 2nd to December 9th)? See all the details on the course syllabus online here Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 8h 14h 14-16h 18-20h 16-18h LECTURE LECTURE TUTORIAL TUTORIAL TUTORIAL
- 12. Activities and assessment 1. Group-based report. 40% of the grade. DEADLINE: December 6th 2. Group-based presentation. 20% of the grade. WHEN: December 1st 3. Role play. 10% of the grade. WHEN: December 1st 4. Individual, short essay. 30% of the grade. DEADLINE: December 9th There will be no (oral or written) exam! See all the details on the course syllabus online here
- 13. Learning Objectives From syllabus learning outcomes By the end of the course, you will have: Learning outcomes Learning methods Developed understanding of major theories of change in agri- food Lectures, readings Practiced methods and approaches to explain change at multiple levels Lectures, readings, tutorials Developed competencies for participating to change processes in agri-food (creativity, systems thinking, negotiating, teamwork, forward-thinking, others!) Tutorials, group-work, presentations, role plays, guest lectures, Facebook group
- 14. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important What it is, How does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!
- 16. WHY Systems Dynamics? To think of the unintended consequences of YOUR actions To understand the trade-offs and dilemmas among actors that make the problem persist To map the multiple causes & effects of the problem and discuss the points that are most uncertain Systems Dynamics helps framing and mapping the three key features of wicked problems (Dentoni & Ross 2013): -Change over time -Stakeholder conflict - Knowledge uncertainty
- 17. WHY Systems Dynamics? “We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them” (Einstein 1946) System dynamics (SD) is the tool to understand the nature of problems and to prepare for Systemic change (Senge et al. 2015) (in agri-food chains and in other socio-economic sectors)
- 18. Systems Thinking (Senge et al. 2015) System dynamics (SD) is one of the key tools to develop System Thinking, a KEY COMPETENCE to practice in this course: Ability to see the larger system. Fostering reflection and more generative discussions Shifting focus from problem-solving to co-creating the future
- 19. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important What it is, how does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!
- 20. Systems Dynamics: definition & history System dynamics (SD) is an approach to understanding the nonlinear behavior of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops and time delays (Forrester 1971) Systems thinking (Senge et al. 2015) Causal loop diagrams (Kirkwood 2016)
- 21. Causal Loop Diagrams (Kirkwood 2016) System dynamics (SD) can be extremely complex (using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops and time delays . Causal loop diagrams provide a simplified, handy version of SD. They still frame wicked problems and help developing your systems- thinking.
- 22. Causal Loop Diagrams (Kirkwood 2016) System dynamics (SD) principles simplified: Causal Loop: Closed sequence of causes and effects, that is, a closed path of action and information (Richardson and Pugh 1981).
- 23. Causal Loop Diagram: Drug Abuse Drug abuse Suppose that, as a group of social entrepreneurs, you want to reduce drug abuse and criminality in a neighborhood without increasing public expenditure (Dentoni 2016). Let’s start from a very basic mapping of the problem: Public costs for rehab programs Youth social exclusion Cultural activities in neigh- borhood Police enforce- ment Criminality Drug Availability - + + + - Minus (-) indicates that you agree that there is a negative relationship between cultural activities and youth social exclusion (i.e., the more cultural activities, the less youth social exclusion) Plus (+) indicates that you agree that there is a positive relationship between criminality and drug availability (i.e., the more criminality, the more the drub availability) +
- 24. Causal Loop Diagram: Feedback loops Drug abuse Public costs for rehab programs Youth social exclusion Cultural activities in neigh- borhood Police enforce- ment Criminality Drug Availability - + + + - + Public budget available - Public funds for police enforcement Public funds for cultural activities + + + +
- 25. Causal Loop Diagram: from analysis to action Drug abuse Let’s now brainstorm on a simple systemic intervention that may effectively reduce drug abuse and criminality with no increase in public costs: what about a “time bank” and a neighborhood watch initiative? Public costs for rehab programs Youth social exclusion Cultural activities in neigh- borhood Police enforce- ment Criminality Drug Availability Time bank in neighb- oorhood Trust among neighbors Neighbor- hood watch initiative - + + + - + + + - - +
- 26. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important What it is, how does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!
- 27. How to gather information 1. Start from what you already know! • Not only “certain information/knowledge”, but also your gut feelings and opinions. 2. Consult in depth everyone within your group • Everyone should really have put all their past know in it! 3. Consult other people closest to you • Anyone can give you good info: students in other groups, your family/friends, housemates, your barista, etc… 4. Watch video of interviews, or organize them: • Who are good key informants? Stakeholders involved? 5. Consult literature (web + academic literature)
- 28. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important What it is, how does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!
- 29. How to map the problem Drug abuse Public costs for rehab programs Youth social exclusion Cultural activities in neigh- borhood Police enforce- ment Criminality Drug Availability - + + + - + You can start from the main problem:
- 30. How to map the problem Drug abuse Public costs for rehab programs Youth social exclusion Cultural activities in neigh- borhood Police enforce- ment Criminality Drug Availability - + + + - + OR you can start from causes of the problem:
- 31. How to map the problem Drug abuse Public costs for rehab programs Youth social exclusion Cultural activities in neigh- borhood Police enforce- ment Criminality Drug Availability - + + + - + OR you can start from effects of the problem:
- 32. Important: How to gather information As you work with your team on the map: Pay particular attention to the process of your interaction You will have to practice: Individual competencies: Active listening Complex communication Trust in yourself and others Team competencies: Dialectics and synthesis between different opinions, beliefs, disciplines and values
- 33. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important What it is, how does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!
- 34. Criteria of evaluation for a great map Tips for sketching an insightful map of YOUR PROBLEM: 1. Think broad: Draw many drivers and consequences of your problems. The more you draw drivers and effects of your problems, the easier it will be for you to find effective and creative interventions to these problems later on. 2. Develop feedback loops: How do the effects of your problem connect back with its causes… creating vicious circles and virtuous circles? So that you can lately think of how to break vicious circles and stimulate virtuous circles. 3. Seek the trade-offs and dilemmas: The problems often involve difficult choices. For example, more police enforcement reduces criminality but is also likely to increase public expenditure… to sketch a realistic and sharp map, seek and represent these dilemmas! We will use these as criteria to assess your work and give you feedback in your group work!
- 35. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan Recap/catch up! Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics Why it is important What it is, how does it work How to gather information How to map the information How to assess it Tutorial: Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!
- 36. Best of luck with building your map!
- 37. More information SEE YOUR READINGS FOR LECTURE 3: http://economia.unipr.it/docenti/text.asp?id=359&id_cors o=1585
Editor's Notes
- #2: Key message: 1. When building or managing partnerships, it is critical to understand the nature of problems and systems; 2. My vision is to develop theory and tools for improving our understanding of problems/systems.