01. PSP Part 1.pdf planning of construction projects

PRMG 075 - Online Delivery
Project Planning & Scheduling Professional(PSP)
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Chapter 1:
Project Management Fundamentals
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Introduction to Project Management
• Project Management is an emerging profession that become of great
importance to nearly all professional.
• Projects are critical to the success of any organization. They are the
activities that results in new or changed products, services.
• Projects increase sales, reduce costs, improve quality and customer
satisfaction.
As organizations have recognize the criticality of projects to their
success, project management has become a focal point of
improvement efforts.
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What Is Project Management?
• Project Management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools,
and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements.
• Project management is accomplished through the appropriate
application and integration project management processes, which
are categorized into five Process Groups, initiating, planning,
executing, controlling, and closing.

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• The project team manages the work of the projects, and the
work typically involves:
o Identified requirements.
o Competing project constraints including: scope, schedule,
budget, risk, resources and quality.
o Setting active, effective and collaborative communication with
stakeholders.
o Managing stakeholders with different needs and expectation.

• Due to the potential for change, the development of the project
management plan is an iterative activity and is progressively
elaborated throughout the project’s life cycle.
• Progressive elaboration allows a project management team to
define work and manage it to a greater level of detail as the project
evolves.
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• The person responsible for accomplishing the project
objectives is the Project Manager.
• The Project Team manages the work of the projects.

What is a project?
Organizations perform work. Work generally involves either
operations or projects, although the two may overlap. Operations
and projects share many characteristics; for example, they are:
‐ Performed by people.
‐ Constrained by limited resources.
‐ Planned, executed, and controlled.
• Operations and projects differ primarily in that operations are
ongoing and repetitive while projects are temporary and
unique.
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Definition of a Project
Any work that:
• Has a temporary endeavor with a beginning and an end.
• Creates a unique product , service or result.
• Done for a purpose.
• Has interrelated activities.
• Is progressively elaborated
– Progressively: proceeding in steps
– Elaborated: worked with care and detail to be better
understood.
 Scope of project should remain constant even as
characteristics are “progressively elaborated”

Examples of Projects
• Developing a new product or service.
• Designing a new transportation vehicle.
• Developing or acquiring a new or modified information
system.
• Implementing a new business procedure or process.
• Constructing a building or facility.
• Producing a film.
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Programs
A group of related projects managed in a coordinated way to obtain
benefits not available from managing them "individually”. Many
programs also include elements of ongoing operations as shown in the
following example:
The “ABC airplane program” includes both the project or projects to
design and develop the aircraft, as well the ongoing manufacturing
and support of the craft in the field.
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 Portfolios & portfolio management
A portfolio is a collection of projects or programs to facilitate
effective management.
Project portfolio management refers to the selection and support
of projects or program investments. These investments are
guided by organization’s strategic plan and available resources.
 Subprojects
Projects may be divided to more manageable components called
subprojects.
‐ Often contracted out to external organizations
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The relationship among portfolios, programs, and projects:
Portfolio refers to a collection of projects, programs, sub‐portfolios,
and operations managed as a group to achieve strategic objectives.
Programs are grouped within a portfolio and are comprised of
subprograms, projects, or other work that are managed in a
coordinated fashion in support of the portfolio.
Individual projects that are either within or outside of a program
are still considered part of a portfolio.

Triple Constraint
• To be successful, the project manager must always balance
project costs, schedule, scope of work (requirement of scope
statement), quality, and customer satisfaction. This is called
triple constraint (even though there are now five parts) and is
used throughout to properly plan the project, evaluate the
impacts of the changes, and prove successful project
completion.
• This is also known as a trade off between time, cost and
quality.
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Project management processes
Initiating Process Group. Those processes performed to define a new
project or a new phase of an existing project by obtaining authorization to
start the project or phase.
Planning Process Group. Those processes required to establish the scope
of the project, refine the objectives, and define the course of action required
to attain the objectives that the project was undertaken to achieve.
Executing Process Group. Those processes performed to complete the
work defined in the project management plan to satisfy the project
specifications.

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Monitoring and Controlling Process Group. Those processes
required to track, review, and regulate the progress and performance of the
project; identify any areas in which changes to the plan are required; and
initiate the corresponding changes.
Closing Process Group. Those processes performed to finalize all
activities across all Process Groups to formally close the project or phase.

The integrative nature of project management requires the Monitoring and
Controlling Process Group to interact with the other Process Groups.
In addition, since management of a project is a finite effort, the Initiating Process
Group begins the project, and the Closing Process Group ends it
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Project Life Cycle
• This life cycle is a collection of generally sequential project phases
whose name and number are determined by the control needs of
the organization or organizations involved in the project.
• Project Life Cycle defines:
Technical work performed in each phase
Who is involved in each phase

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Project life cycles can range along a continuum from PREDICTIVE or plan‐
driven approaches at one end to ADAPTIVE or change‐driven approaches at
the other.
 In a predictive life cycle the product and deliverables are defined at the
beginning of the project and any changes to scope are carefully managed.
 In an adaptive life cycle the product is developed over multiple
iterations and detailed scope is defined for each iteration only as the
iteration begins.

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Common Characteristics of Project Life Cycle

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Common Characteristics of Project Life Cycles:
– Cost and Staffing levels are low at start and move higher towards
the end
– Probability of successfully completing project is low at beginning,
higher towards the end as project continues
– Stakeholder influence is high at the beginning and progressively
lowers as project continues
• Adaptive life cycles are developed with the intent of keeping
stakeholder influences higher and the costs of changes lower
throughout the life cycle than in predictive life cycles.

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Impact of Variable Based on Project Time

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Project Phases
A project phase is a collection of logically related project activities that
result in the completion of one or more deliverables, the phase
structure allows for ease of management, planning, and control.

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Characteristics of project phases:
• The work has a distinct focus that differs from any other phase.
• Achieving the primary deliverable of the phase requires controls or
processes unique to the phase or its activities.
• The closure of a phase ends with some form of transfer or hand‐off of
the work product produced as the phase deliverable.
• This phase end may be referred to as a stage gate, milestone, phase
review, phase gate or kill point.

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Single-Phase Project

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Phase‐to‐Phase Relationships
• Sequential relationship. In a sequential relationship, a phase starts only
when the previous phase is complete.
The step by‐ step nature of this approach reduces uncertainty, but may
eliminate options for reducing the overall schedule.

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Overlapping Relationship. a phase starts prior to completion of the previous one.
This can sometimes be applied as an example of the schedule compression
technique called fast tracking. Overlapping phases may require additional
resources to allow work to be done in parallel, may increase risk, and can result
in rework.

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For projects with more than one phase, there may be different
relationships (overlapping, sequential, parallel) between
individual phases.
Considerations such as level of control required, effectiveness,
and degree of uncertainty determine the relationship to be
applied between phases.
Both relationships could occur between different phases of a
single project.

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IS THERE A DIFFERENCE?

Chapter 2:
PLANNING DEVELOPMENT & PLANNING
PRODUCTS
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Project Planning
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Planning is the seed of success
Without project planning, project success will be
difficult. Team members would have limited
understanding of expectations, activities may not be
probably defined, and resource requirements may not
be understood.
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• There are four reasons for project planning:
1. To eliminate or reduce uncertainty.
2. To improve efficiency of the operation.
3. To obtain a better understanding of the
objectives.
4. To provide a basis for monitoring and controlling
work.
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• Planning is the identification of the project objectives
and the orderly activities necessary to complete the
project (the thinking part) and not to be confused
with scheduling; the process by which the duration of
the project task is applied to the plan.
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The project plan provides the specifics of:
• What (Objective, scope, and statement of work)
• How (Approach, Work breakdown structure)
• Who (Project organization and resource schedule)
• When (Schedules and milestones)
• Where (Facilities required)
• What‐if (Contingency plans is the event of risk events)
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Planning Techniques
• Network Planning :
1‐ PERT (Program Evaluation & Review Technique).
2‐ CPM (Critical Path Method).
Both can be represented either by arrow diagram ADM
or precedence diagram PDM.
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GERT:
• A network diagram drawing method that allows loops activities .
The easiest example is when you have an activity to design a
component and then test it. After testing, it may or may not need
to be designed.
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Activity A Activity B

Project Planning
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Planning Input Data
Contract Requirements
•Understand contracts and their relationship to the planning process.
• The primary focus of the project team during the planning phase is
to understand the total scope of the contract documents.
• It is important that all project team members know and understand
contract terms, conditions, requirements, and their relationship to
the work.
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Identification of Stakeholders
•Identify and define stakeholders and their interests.
•There are typically many different stakeholders, and each has
different goals and objectives. These goals and objectives influence
the development of the project plan.
•Stakeholder interests may be positive or negative when viewed
against the planning process.
•Obtaining consensus among the stakeholders during the planning
process is a key to success.
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Constructability Methods
• Constructability is defined to be “the optimum use of
construction knowledge and experience in planning,
engineering, procurement, and field operations to achieve
overall project objectives.
• The constructability analysis process should begin during initial
planning phases and continue throughout the entire planning
cycle and into the implementation phase of the project.
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•Constructability analysis during the planning process examines
the methods and cost of installed equipment and materials,
technology, site conditions, resources, and related infrastructure.
•The benefit of the constructability analysis process is to reduce
both time and cost impact to a project.
• Constructability analysis is often done throughout the life‐cycle
of a project in order to optimize cost, plan, and schedule while
mitigating risk.
•It is most critical during the earliest stages of the project.
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Planning Considerations and Constraints
In developing a plan for a project there are many considerations and
constraints that require identification and evaluation.
The Considerations and Constraints consists of the following :
o Identification of Resources.
o Value Engineering.
o Stakeholder Considerations.
o Project Variables.
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Identification of Resources
•Resources are critical to the planning effort and, if not fully
considered, may result in adverse impact to the project.
•Planners must identify driving or key resources in relation to the
priorities of the project
•Categories of resources are Material, labor, equipment,
•Consideration and evaluation of performance and productivity
issues are an integral part of the planning process.
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Value Engineering
•Value engineering must consider all stakeholders’ needs and
requirements, prioritize required functions, and evaluate their
cost and schedule impact.
• VE will optimize life‐cycle performance by guiding selection of
materials and installed equipment to maximize their functionality
and quality while minimizing their costs.
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Stakeholder Considerations
Any party that has an interest (stake) in the endeavor or project is
a stakeholder.
Stakeholder considerations and constraints must be identified,
evaluated, and reconciled to allow the planning process to
proceed.
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Project Variables
Each project has influential variables such as available
resources, site conditions and constraints, financial and
economic considerations, local laws and regulations.
These variables and their associated risks must be identified,
evaluated, and resolved or mitigated to the best ability of the
team.
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Planning Output and Deliverables
o Define scope of work.
o Define project goals.
o Establish work breakdown structure.
o Establish organization breakdown structure.
o Consider cost structure.
o Define phase.
o Sequence and phase relationships.
o Develop cost estimate.
o Develop baseline plan.
o Consider risk and recovery plans.
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Define Scope of Work
•The client‐owner is responsible for defining the conceptual
scope of work and developing contracts and specifications that
reflect the definable scope of work..
•At the conceptual stage, the scope of work is a narrative
description. As the project evolves during the planning stage, the
scope of work is refined and expanded to reflect current goals and
requirements.
•Development of the work packages is the end product of the
planning phase of the program.
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Define Project Goals
A project goal is a concept that is identified and expressed
as an achievable end product.
Project goals are broader and are less specific than
objectives.
A project may have multiple goals and objectives.
Each stakeholder may have different perceptions of
established goals, which require reconciliation to ensure
goals alignment.
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Establish Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
‐ The WBS is a hierarchy division of the work scope elements of a
project to be performed.
‐ The function of the WBS is to divide the scope of work into manageable
parts that correspond to key deliverables, phases, or milestones.
‐ WBS assist in the communication of cost, schedule, quality, and
resource performance data to stakeholders.
‐ The WBS is product‐oriented or process‐oriented. Defining the WBS,
like all tasks in the planning process, may be dynamic, cyclical, and
iterative.
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‐ WBS must relate to code or chart of accounts.
‐ The difference between work package and a cost account:
• A work package is a WBS component, where resources can be budgeted.
• A cost account is the intersection of WBS and OBS components, where
actual costs can be forecasted and collected.
‐ WBS should be structured in accordance with how work will be
performed, and who shall perform it.
‐ After the WBS is fully and properly developed, all project work is defined
somewhere in the WBS , and no work is defined more than once in the
WBS
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Establish Organizational Breakdown Structure (OBS)
The OBS is a hierarchy division of the work scope elements of a
project to be performed by a particular organization.
The function of the OBS is to allocate the organization’s resources
against WBS elements, in order that the scope of work is efficiently
and effectively performed and that a particular organization entity
is responsible for its performance within budget and on time.
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‐ OBS is the hierarchical division of the organization
structure that defines who performs work elements.
‐Defines and facilitates the communication and
integration of the project plan.
‐ Must be project‐specific.
‐ Must contain balance between complexity required for
control and simplicity for accurate progress reporting.
‐ Must relate to code or chart of accounts.
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Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS)
A CBS is either a hierarchical ranking that rolls or
aggregates budgeted resources into elements of cost
which are most typical: labor, materials, and other direct
and indirect costs for a project; or
A hierarchical ranking that defines the multiple project
cost elements for cost accounting.
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 A CBS is a hierarchical definition of the key elements of a
project. At the highest level these are:
labor, materials, and other direct and indirect costs.
For a complex project there will be many sub‐levels of these
major elements.
 A CBS is an effective tool both during the planning phase of
a project as well as during the construction phase.
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 A cost breakdown structure is a key element of control
for a project.
 The CBS allows all levels of management to track any
project cost to meet their particular control and
reporting needs.
 The CBS also allows management to evaluate the
effectiveness of the estimate versus the work in place,
remaining work, and overall costs.
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Phase Definition
•As the scope of work is refined, the identification or
breakdown of the project scope into various phases may
likewise be expanded to fit the project.
•A phase is a significant period of time or grouping of
related activities within a project.
•Phases are based on and derived from the scope of
work, sequence of work, phase relationships and the
WBS.
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Sequencing and Phase Relationships
The various major elements of work scope will be completed in
an interrelated, logical manner that identifies work phases and
their relationship to each other.
 This sequencing is a planning process that iteratively drives the
final plan and resultant schedule.
Work phases evolve from conceptual to specific during the life‐
cycle development of the program.
Work phases eventually become broad groupings within the
schedule and ultimately “nest” specific work packages and activities.
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Cost Estimate Development
The evaluation and determination of resource constraints and
considerations play an important role in the planning process.
Budget development and evolution drives development of the
program schedule. The budgetary process provides the underling
basis of cost and schedule baselines used when monitoring,
controlling, and reporting.
The estimate development for both direct and indirect costs
should consider the schedule risks identified during the planning
process.
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Risk and Recovery Plan
Both risk and changes require recovery plans. Recovery plans propose
potential solutions to impacts caused by risk or change.
Change may have either a positive or negative impact on the current
plan.
As the plan is developed, the project team should be aware of the risks
and implement a risk management plan.
The risk management plan may be used to mitigate risk and ensure
recovery throughout the project life cycle.
As the plan evolves, the project team should continually perform a risk
assessment on the plan to determine the feasibility of the plan.
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Review by Stakeholders
• Stakeholder review is a key element in the planning
process.
• Key stakeholders’ detailed reviews and decision‐
making are critical at this point.
• This may result in favorable or unfavorable actions
that require re‐planning.
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Chapter 3:
SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT
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Why Schedule?
• Formulate A Plan.
• Communicate The Plan.
• Set Goals.
• Measure Progress.
• Respond To Change.
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Importance of Project Schedules
 Managers often cite delivering projects on time as one of their
biggest challenges
 Time has the least amount of flexibility
 Schedule issues are the main reason for conflicts on projects,
especially during the second half of projects
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Conflict Intensity Over the Life of a Project
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Project
Formation
Early Phases Middle Phases End Phases
Conflict
Intensity
Schedules
Priorities
Manpower
Technical opinions
Procedures
Cost
Personality conflicts
Average
Total Conflict
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Project Scheduling
A description of when each activity in a project can be
accomplished and must be finished so as to be completed
timely.
The simplest of schedules depict in bar chart format the start
and finish of activities of a given duration.
More complex schedules, generally in CPM format, include
schedule logic and show the critical path and floats associated
with each activity.
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• The schedule is the time sequence of activities and events
that represent an operating timetable.
• The schedule specifies the relative beginning and ending
times of activities and the occurrence times of events.
• A schedule may be presented on a calendar framework or
on an elapsed time scale.
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Who Schedules?
Schedule Considerations
Owners
Contractors
Designers
Suppliers
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• Owner
– Funding Needs
– Permits
– Commissioning/Start‐Up
– Occupancy Planning/Sales
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 Contractor
– Prime – Overall Execution of Work
– Sub – More Detail on Fewer Activities
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• Designer
– Design Completion
– Permits/Applications
– Submission/Shop Drawing Review
– Progress Monitoring
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 Supplier
 Submissions
 Shop drawings
 Fabrication
 Delivery/Lead Time
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Typical Steps For Project
Planning & Scheduling
– Define the project
– List the project activities
– Sequence the activities (ADM, PDM)
– Activity Resource Estimating
– Activity Duration Estimating (PERT, CPM)
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– Schedule Calculation
• Define critical path
• Floats calculation
• Schedule compression
• Leveling
– Cost Estimating
– Develop Budget
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• The most effective tool to use in ensuring that all work
scope is planned is the work breakdown structure
(WBS). The WBS is a valuable management tool for
planning, organizing, implementing, and controlling
projects.
• The WBS is a tree structure of successively further
breakdowns of work scope into component parts.
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Define the Project (Create WBS)
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WBS Structure
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‐ The best approach to developing a WBS is to first choose the
desired hierarchy (process, organization, or product)
‐The WBS subdivides the project work into smaller, more
manageable pieces of work, with each descending level of the
WBS representing an increasingly detailed definition of the
project work.
‐ The planned work contained within the lowest‐level WBS
components, which are called work packages, can be
scheduled, cost estimated, monitored, and controlled.
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How to develop WBS?
WBS templates
– Use a WBS from a previous project or a standard template to
develop a WBS for this project
Decomposition
– Subdividing major project deliverables into smaller, more
manageable components until deliverables are defined in sufficient
detail for supporting future project activities
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o The Top Level of the WBS is Project Title.
o The First Level is most commonly the same as the Project
Phases.
o The Second & Later levels break the project into smaller pieces.
o Some levels can be broken down further than the others
o The Lowest Level that the project manager will manage the
project to, is called the Work Package.
o This Work may be broken down again by the person or persons
completing the work.
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Work Package:
• The lowest level of a WBS.
• It takes typically duration from 8‐80 work hours
• Its duration should not exceed the time between
status reports
• The progress should be easy to track
• The accountability should be easy to assign
• Work packages are further broken down during the
Activity Definition Process.
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• Is a graphical picture of the hierarchy of the project
• Identifies all the work to be performed—if it is not in
the WBS, it is not part of the project
• Is the foundation upon which the project is built
• Is VERY important and Should exist for every project
• Forces you to think through all aspects of the project
• Does NOT show dependencies
WBS
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WBS related concepts
Code of accounts:
Uniquely identifies each element of the WBS
Work packages:
A deliverable at the lowest level of the WBS
WBS dictionary:
Work component descriptions, which typically include work
package descriptions, as well as other planning information
such as schedule dates, cost budgets, and staff assignments.
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WBS Dictionary
• WBS dictionary is designed to control what work is done and when, to prevent
scope creep, sometimes it is called task description
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WBS DICTIONARY (Task Description)
Project Name:----------- Task No:----------- Date Issued:----------- Person Assigned:-------
Task description (What work is authorized)
Quantified objectives (See the description in the project charter)
Product description (What is the end result of the task or work package?)
Acceptance criteria (How will the team member be able to check their own work?)
Deliverables (See the description in the project charter)
Assumptions
Resources assigned
Duration
Cost
Due date
Interdependencies: Before this task -------------------- After this task ----------------------
Approved by: Project manager ----------------------------------------------- Date: ---------------------

• Activity
– Most detailed work unit that is tracked in a
project schedule
– Contains all detailed information about the
work to be performed
– Also known as a task or item
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• Project work packages are planned (decomposed) into
smaller components called schedule activities to provide
a basis for estimating, scheduling, executing, and
monitoring and controlling the project work.
• Upon finishing this step we get activity list, activity
attributes ( identifier, codes,..) and milestone list
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An activity has multiple components, an activity is the equivalent of a
record in a database. Each record has multiple fields of data that define
activity scope and characteristics for reporting and management of the
work.
The minimum components for an activity are:
o A unique alphanumeric identifier.
o A unique descriptive name, optimally phrased as verb‐object.
o A duration
Individual activities have relationships and may have other attributes:
o Cost and resource loading.
o Constraints.
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Activity Components
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Required:
• Identify the activity
• Duration
• Timeframe in the
schedule

Activity Types
Task Dependent
To indicate that the activity's resources are scheduled
according to the activity calendar.
 Resource Dependent
To indicate that each of the activity's resources are
scheduled according to his/her own calendar.
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Milestones are significant events (zero duration) within
the project schedule. Some examples include : the design is
completed, or a deliverable due date from the customer.
Milestones can be imposed by the sponsor.
Start Milestone
To indicate that the activity marks the beginning of a major
stage in the project.
 Finish Milestone
To indicate that the activity marks the end of a major stage
in the project.
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 Level of Effort (Hammock activity)
To indicate that the activity's duration is dependent on
its predecessor and/or successor activities.
WBS Summary
To indicate that the activity's duration is dependent on
the activities assigned to the same WBS level,.
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Notes
•You cannot apply constraints to Level of Effort and
WBS Summary activities.
•Start and Finish Milestones do not have time‐based
costs, resource assignments, or durations.
•You cannot assign resources that drive activity dates
to WBS summary activities
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Activity Sequencing
• Activity sequencing involves identifying and documenting
the logical relationships among schedule activities.
• Schedule activities can be logically sequenced with proper
precedence relationships, as well as leads and lags to
support later development of a realistic and achievable
project schedule.
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•Every activity must have a predecessor and a successor
activity with the exception of the first and last activities.
•The first activity will only have one or more successor
activities.
•The last activity will have one or more predecessor activities.
• Relationships provide a logical link or connection between two
or more activities in a schedule.
• When a chain of activities of the longest duration are linked
together, they define the critical path in a project schedule.
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Dependency Determination
• Mandatory dependencies (Hard Logic)
Those dependencies which are inherent in the nature of the work
being done. They often involve physical limitations.
• Discretionary dependencies (soft logic)
Those dependencies that are defined by the project management
team. These dependencies can be changed if needed, while the others
cannot easily be changed.
• External dependencies
Those dependencies that are involve a relationship between project
activities and non‐project activities.
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Project Network Diagrams
• Project network diagrams are the preferred technique for
showing activity sequencing
• A project network diagram is a schematic display of the logical
relationships among, or sequencing of, project activities
• There are 2 types of network diagrams:
I. Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
II. Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)
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I. Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
• ADM is a method of constructing a project schedule network
diagram that uses arrows to represent activities and connects
them at nodes to show their dependencies. This technique is also
called activity‐on‐arrow (AOA) and, although less prevalent than
PDM, it is still used in teaching schedule network theory and in
some application areas.
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Duration
i
ES
LS
j EF
LF
Description

1 5
4
2
3
6 4
2
2
7
5
3
• ADM uses only finish‐to‐start dependencies and can require the use
of “dummy” relationship called dummy activity which has zero
duration and are shown as dashed line.
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Dummy Activity
•
100
b
1 2
2
Wrong
a
3
1
Dummy
Right
b
a
•A dummy activities has no duration and uses no resources.
Its sole purpose is to indicate a technological relationship
Why We Use Dummy Activity?
c
c

Dummy Activity
‐ Has no duration ( = Zero )
‐ Has no resources to be allocated on
‐ Can be run on critical path
‐ Used to keep the logical relationship of the AOA
network
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Activity Predecessor
A ----
B A
C B,D
D ----
E D
F E
Problem 1 (Drawing Dummy )
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D
Start Finish
A
B
E
C
F
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II.Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)
• PDM is a method of constructing a project schedule network
diagram that uses boxes or rectangles, referred to as nodes, to
represent activities and connects them with arrows that show
the dependencies. This technique is also called activity on‐node
(AON), and is the method used by most project management
software packages.
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Finish‐to‐Start.
• The initiation of the successor activity depends upon the
completion of the predecessor activity.
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PDM includes four types of dependencies or precedence
relationships:
(i) (j)
FSij
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Finish‐to‐Finish.
• The completion of the successor activity depends upon
the completion of the predecessor activity.
(i) (j)
FFij
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Start‐to‐Start.
• The initiation of the successor activity depends
upon the initiation of the predecessor activity.
(i) (j)
SSij
107 107

Start‐to‐Finish.
•The completion of the successor activity depends upon
the initiation of the predecessor activity.
(i) (j)
SFij
108 108

ES
LS LF
EF
DUR
Description.
j
SS
FS
FF
SF
109
ES
LS LF
EF
DUR
Description.
i
109

Leads and Lags :
• A lead may be added to start an activity before the
predecessor activity is completed (‐ve lag).
•A lag is inserted waiting time between activities
110 110

111
Activity Resource Requirements
• The types and quantities of resources required for each activity in
a work package. These requirements then can be aggregated to
determine the estimated resources for each work package and
each work period.
• The amount of detail and the level of specificity of the resource
requirement descriptions can vary by application area.
• The resource requirements documentation for each activity can
include the basis of estimate for each resource, the assumptions ,
their availability, and what quantities are used.

1‐ Expert judgment
Expert judgment is often required to assess the resource‐related inputs
2‐ Alternatives Analysis
Many schedule activities have alternative methods of accomplishment.
They include using various levels of resource capability or skills, different
size or type of machines, and make‐or‐buy decisions regarding the
resource
3‐ Published Estimating Data
Published updated production rates and unit costs of resources
4‐ Bottom‐Up Estimating
When an activity cannot be estimated with a reasonable degree of
confidence, the work within the activity is decomposed into more detail.
The resource needs are estimated.
112
How is the estimation done?

•The Activity Duration Estimating process requires that the
amount of work effort required to complete the schedule
activity is estimated.
•The process of estimating schedule activity durations uses
information on schedule activity scope of work, required
resource types, estimated resource quantities, and resource
calendars with resource availabilities.
Activity Duration Estimating
113 113

• Expert Judgment
Expert judgment, guided by historical information, can be used
whenever possible
• Analogous Estimating
Analogous duration estimating means using the actual duration of a
previous, similar schedule activity as the basis for estimating the
duration of a future schedule activity.
• Parametric Estimating
Estimating the basis for activity durations can be quantitatively
determined by dividing the quantity of work to be performed by the
productivity rate.
How is the estimation done?
114 114

Schedule Development
• Project schedule development, an iterative process, determines
planned start (ES,LS) and finish dates (EF,LF) for project activities.
• Schedule development can require that duration estimates and
resource estimates are reviewed and revised to create an approved
project schedule that can serve as a baseline against which progress
can be tracked.
• Schedule development continues throughout the project as work
progresses, the project management plan changes, and anticipated risk
events occur or disappear as new risks are identified.
115 115

Chapter 4:
ESTIMATING METHODS (PERT -
CPM)
116

Estimating Methods
Three main methods are used for estimating the
duration of the project:
PERT : Program Evaluation And Review Technique
CPM : Critical Path Method
Monte Carlo Simulation
117 117

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Techniques)
• PERT was developed by U.S. Navy during the late 1950s to
accelerate the development of the Polaris fleet ballistic
missile. The development of this weapon involved the
coordination of the work of thousands of private contractors
and other government agencies. The coordination by PERT
was so successful that the entire project was completed 2
years ahead of schedule.
• The time required to complete the various activities in a
research and development project is generally not known a
priori.
• Thus, in its analysis PERT incorporates uncertainties
in activity times.
118
118

•Three‐Point Estimates
The accuracy of the activity duration estimate can be improved by
considering the amount of risk in the original estimate. Three‐point
estimates are based on determining three types of estimates:
 Most likely. The duration of the schedule activity, given the resources
likely to be assigned, their productivity, realistic expectations of
availability for the schedule activity.
 Optimistic. The activity duration is based on a best‐case
 Pessimistic. The activity duration is based on a worst‐case scenario.
119 119

•Can be used to estimate time and cost
•Has an emphasis on meeting schedules with flexibility on
cost
•Can be drawn on an Activity on Arrow (AOA)
•Can have dummies
An activity duration estimate using an average of the
three estimated durations will often provide a more
accurate duration estimate than the single point.
120 120

• Duration time activity
Te = Tp + 4Tm + To
6
Where
Te = estimate time
To = optimistic time
Tm = most probable time
Tp = pessimistic time
• Because of its ability to handle uncertainties in job times, PERT
is extensively used in research and development projects.
121
121

Most Likely
(used in original CPM calculations)
PERT Weighted Average =
Optimistic + 4 * Most likely + Pessimistic
6
( )
Beta Distribution
Pessimistic
Longer
Optimistic
Lower
Shorter
Possible Durations
Probability of
Occurrence
Higher
Pert Duration Calculation For a single Activity
122 122

Normal Distribution
Statistically measure variability – commonly used in quality control
68.26%
95.46%
99.73%
LCL UCL
+1 σ
+2 σ
+3 σ
‐1 σ
‐2 σ
‐3 σ Tе, Project
Duration
123
• Standard deviation of an activity σ = (TP – T0) / 6
• Variance of an activity V = [(TP – T0) / 6]2
• σ total = square root (σ12 + σ22 + σ32 + σ42 + ….

PERT Calculations
• Normal Distribution
50 % chance ‐ using expected tie durations (T e,)
84 % chance ‐ ( Te,) + 1 σ , etc
84.13%
97.73 %
+1 σ
+2 σ
+3 σ
‐1 σ
‐2 σ
‐3 σ Tе, Project
Duration
99.86 %
50%
Projects Start Date
124 124

PERT Example
A B
C D
A – B‐ D = 12.16 DAYS
D – D = 12 DAYS
Expected Project Duration:
12.16 days
Time, Days
PERT duration
Pessimistic
Most
Likely
Optimistic
Activity
4
6
4
2
A
3.16
5
3
2
B
7
10
7
4
C
5
6
5
4
D
125 125
Te = Tp + 4Tm + To
6

PERT Example
A B
C D
Time, Days
σ2 = Variance
Critical
Task Standard
deviation σ
PERT duration
Pessimistic
Most
Likely
Optimistic
Activity
0.4356
*
0.66
4
6
4
2
A
0.25
*
0.5
3.16
5
3
2
B
7
10
7
4
C
0.1089
*
0.33
5
6
5
4
D
0.7945
sum
126 126
• Standard deviation of an activity σ = (TP – T0) / 6
• Variance of an activity V = [(TP – T0) / 6]2
• σ total = square root (σ12 + σ22 + σ32 + σ42 + ….

PERT Example
A B
C D
Variance Project (σ2 ) = .7945
Standard Deviation of Critical Path (σ) = .89
Expected Project Duration: 12.16 days with probability 50%
Expected Project Duration: 12.16 +1 σ = 12.16 + .89 = 13.05 days with probability 84.13%
127 127

• CPM (Critical Path Method)
The critical path method closely resembles PERT in many aspects but was
developed independently by E.I. du pont de nemours company. The major
difference between PERT & CPM is the CPM does not incorporates
uncertainties in job times. Instead, it assumes that the activity times are
proportional to the amount of resources allocated to them, and that by
changing the level of resources the activity times and the project completion
time can be varied. Thus CPM assumes prior experience with similar projects
from which relationships between resources and job times are available. CPM
then evaluates the trade‐off between project costs and project completion
time.
128
128

• Has one time estimate per activity (task)
• Has an emphasis on controlling cost and leaving time
flexible
• Can be drawn on an Activity on Arrow (AOA)
• Can have dummies
• Activity Duration = Amount of work / Productivity of
used resources
129
129

• This method of estimating uses computer to simulate the outcome of
a project based on Pert estimate
• The simulation give:
– The probability of completing the project on any specific day
– The probability of completing the project for any specific amount of cost
– The probability of any task actually being on the critical path
– The overall project risk
– Monte Carlo can also help deal with “path convergence” places in the
network diagram where multiple paths converge into one or more tasks,
thus adding risk to the project
130
Monte Carlo Simulation
130

Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule
131 131

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