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2007.01 PV成果發表_slide_share

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Harry Wang

1) The document discusses the trends in the photovoltaic (PV) industry and market applications, including the supply and demand outlook. 2) It provides details on the production process from silicon wafer to solar cells and modules. Major companies are mentioned at each stage of the supply chain. 3) Cost reduction is needed for solar electricity to compete with retail power prices. Mass production and technological advances could achieve costs of 1-1.5 Euros/Watt by 2012, making solar more competitive.

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2007/1/17 1 全球太陽電池產業與市場應用趨勢 Development Trend of PV Industry and Application speaker : Harry
2007/1/17 2 到了鯨油用完後 煤油才蓬勃發展 供需之間 ～ PV 之美麗與憂愁 到了石油用完後 PV 才蓬勃發展 Between Demand and Supply ～ The next step of PV kerosene is popular after burning the Blubber out ! PV is popular after burning the Oil out ? Before the presentation ,
2007/1/17 3 Content • Why do we talk about PV ? • What is PV ? • The supply of PV • The demand of PV • The vision of PV • Conclusion
2007/1/17 4 Well-to-Wheel energy efficiency • Honda Civic  0.51 km/MJ • VW Jetta Diesel  0.45 km/MJ Source : Tesla Motors 1. 傳統能源終將 耗盡的危機 For live 2. 溫室效應的日 趨惡化 For survive The CO2 Emissions per 1 TJ ︰ Type The productof CO2 ( t / TJ ) Coal 94.4～98.3 Oil 69.3～77.4 Gas 56.1 Why do we talk about PV ? Type Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Proven reserves / Annual production ( years ) 42 64 155 85 ( Reasonable ) Source : COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
2007/1/17 5 A simple calculation about CO2 Emissions CO2 Coking Coal 燃料煤 2.48 ( kg / kg ) LPG 液化石油氣 1.74 ( kg / L ) Residual Fuel Oil 燃料油 2.95 ( kg / L ) dieseloil 柴油 2.68 ( kg / L ) Gasoline 汽油 2.34 ( kg / L ) Electricity 電 0.66 ( kg / kwh) • 約 6 億輛越野車碳的總排放量 • 約15 億輛小汽車碳的總排放量 Source : ROC Environmental Protection Administration Foundation of Taiwan Industry Service Taipei Tainan ~70kg ~130kg Carbon Dioxide Emissions ( by fuel type ) 每年碳的排放量 10億噸意味著什麼？
2007/1/17 6 PV ( Photo-Voltaic) is … PV Array Consumptive energy Coal Crude Oil Gas Solar Energy Battery Inverter Aerosphere Efficiency Loss Nuclear Efficiency Loss
2007/1/17 7 The supply of PV wafer Mine Silica stone Metallic silica Trichlorosilane (HSiCl3) poly-Si sc-Si slicing slicingcutting IC - chip casting CZ Crystal Puller Refining Purification - Deposition wafer wafer ingot The process of making PV -1
2007/1/17 8 Wafer measuring & testing Etching Diffusion Deposition Metalization Drying & Firing Cell measuring & testing Package & installation The process of making PV -2
2007/1/17 9 Comparison of market share in PV supply chain 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Si wafer cell module >=20% >=15% >=10% The rank of makers ( with high production capacity ) The ratio of market share Hemlock,27% REC-Scan Wafer,20% Sharp,11% Sharp,20% Q-Cells,10%Deutsche,16% M.SETEK,10% Tokuyama,15% REC,15% Wacker,15% MEMC,10% Silicon PV-wafer Cell Module Source : Companies , PIDA
2007/1/17 10 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 IC-demand 19,866 21,853 24,256 27,361 30,453 33,894 Si Solar-demand 18,558 21,483 25,879 39,215 48,745 61,788 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Silicon 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 supply 36,650 43,050 47,700 57,980 75,730 95,480 demand 38,424 43,336 50,135 66,576 79,198 95,682 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Source : Companies , PIDA 17.5% 10.8% 21.6% 30.6% 26.1% Supply and demand of c-Si feedstock ( t ) 27.8% 11.3% 12.8% 15.7% 32.8% 19.0% 20.8%
2007/1/17 11 Silicon Hemlock 26.6% Tokuyama 15.7% REC 15.4% Wacker 15.7% MEMC 10.1% Mitsubishi 7.9% Sumitomo 3.2% Others 5.3% Source : PHOTON International , PIDA Share of c-Si makers in 2006 Source : PHOTON International MG-Si makers capacities ( ton ) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Apollon / Ferroatlantica 200 200 - - - Dowing Corning 1,000 1,000 - - - ELKEM 50 50 5,000 5,000 - JFE 100 100 500 - 1,000 Scheuten 300 300 - 1,000 - Solar Value - - 1,100 - - Others - - - - 5,000 80% Siemens process
2007/1/17 12 REC ScanWafer 20.4% Deutsche Solar 16.3% M.SETEK 9.3% BP Solar 6.7% LDK 5.8% Others 29.1% Yingli 7.3% Green Energy 5.1% Wafer Share of PV wafer makers in 2006 Source : PHOTON International , PIDA
2007/1/17 13 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 wafer thickness 200 180 170 160 150 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Wafer thickness development (μm ) Source : EPIA String/Ribbon Sphelar® Source : Kyosemi Source : Evergreen, Schott Wafer sawing
2007/1/17 14 Cell Source : PHOTON International , PIDA Source : PIDA 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 Si consumption 12.85 12.13 10.62 9.19 8.93 8.58 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Sharp 18.5% Q-Cells 8.7% others 37.3% Kyocera 6.5% Sanyo 5.6% Mitsubishi 4.6% RWE Schott 4.1% Deutsche Cell 4.1% Motech 5.2% Suntech 5.6% Silicon consumption ( g / Wp )Share of PV cell makers in 2006 semiconductor-like process
2007/1/17 15 others 58.67% Sharp 11.12% MSK* 4.26% Kyocera 5.93% Sanyo 3.71% Mitsubishi 3.71% Suntech 3.71% 深圳珈偉 2.97% Solar Factory 2.97% Solon 2.97% Module Share of PV module makers in 2006 Source : PHOTON International , PIDA • Made in market • Customized / standard
2007/1/17 16 Module 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 supply 1,378 1,759 2,319 3,715 5,218 7,184 demand 1,296 1,640 1,929 2,735 3,916 5,386 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Supply and demand of c-Si PV module ( MW ) Source : PIDA 26.5% 17.6% 41.8% 43.2% 37.5% 33.3% 39.6%
2007/1/17 17 635 794 992 1,240 1,550 2,100 290 363 453 566 708 885 345 509 750 314 439 593 746 1,104 1,634 108 159 234 35 114 209 20 30 45 113 226 500 230 340 504 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GERMANY JAPAN US SPAIN, ITALY, FRANCE, GREECE & Portugal CHINA ROW Module Share of worldwide PV Module ( MW , include thin-film cell ) Source : PIDA
2007/1/17 18 Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon Sharp Q-Cells Kyocera BP Solar Sanyo Mitsubishi Motech Suntech Deutsche Cell E-Ton Evergreen Ever-Q REC-ScanWafer MEMC schott Sunways AG ErSol REC Deutsche Solar AG SolarWorld AG Shell Solar Thin-film Shell Solarchange over Solibro GmbH ( CIGS ) Suntech schott Evergreen Ever-Q schott BP Solar tech nano Strategy of top 10 cell makers schott Solar System Group Green Energy MSK M.SETEK Solar Factory BP Solar HIT Sharp ( a /μ Si efficiency 8.5% )Sharp Kyocera Sanyo Mitsubishi Solibro AB,Sweden 2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2) 2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW) 2006.11 Sunlight Comtec Kyocera AtersaSunEdison AE EFG wafer AVANCIS(CIS) Saint-Gobain glass Prime Solar SAS Hemlock Suntech Renesola Motech 日本 IIS 材料 日本 IIS 材料
2007/1/17 19 Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon Sharp Q-Cells Kyocera BP Solar Sanyo Mitsubishi Motech Suntech Deutsche Cell E-Ton Evergreen Ever-Q REC-ScanWafer MEMC schott Sunways AG ErSol REC Deutsche Solar AG SolarWorld AG Shell Solar Thin-film Shell Solarchange over Solibro GmbH ( CIGS ) Suntech schott Evergreen Ever-Q schott BP Solar tech nano Strategy of top 10 cell makers schott Solar System Group Green Energy MSK M.SETEK Solar Factory BP Solar HIT Sharp ( a /μ Si efficiency 8.5% )Sharp Kyocera Sanyo Mitsubishi Solibro AB,Sweden 2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2) 2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW) 2006.11 Sunlight Comtec Kyocera AtersaSunEdison AE EFG wafer AVANCIS(CIS) Saint-Gobain glass Prime Solar SAS Hemlock Suntech Renesola Motech 日本 IIS 材料 日本 IIS 材料 vertical integration
2007/1/17 20 System ~100% module ~70% cell ~50% c-Si ~15% Ingot ~6%，sawing ~3% package ~10% wafer ~30% inverter ~10%，install ~15% cost structure of PV system PV system : 7USD/Wp (module = 4.88 USD/Wp) 700cent / 20year ~ 32cent / KWH etching, diffusion,...~5% Taiwan residential electricity price (per kilowatt-hour ) is 2.51 NT ~ 8cents
2007/1/17 21 Solar Electricity Prices Mass production for cost reduction ( 1 ~ 1,5 € / W in 2012 ) Source : EPIA 1.2 ~ 1.8 USD Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1
2007/1/17 22 The price of PV module and Petroleum Petroleum ( USD / basket ) 50 55 60 65 70 05'12 06'01 06'02 06'03 06'04 06'05 06'06 06'07 06'08 06'09 06'10 06'11 06'12 Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1 Source : OPEC , 2007/1 PV module ( 125W, USD / Wp ) 4.7 4.75 4.8 4.85 4.9 05'12 06'01 06'02 06'03 06'04 06'05 06'06 06'07 06'08 06'09 06'10 06'11 06'12 10% 1%
2007/1/17 23 Eat enough Eat good Eat healthy Identification & Individualism Making consumers followers , we need to follow them first. The demand of PV Does it works ? Is it useful ? Do you like it ? User Centered Design Maker Centered Design The demand of humanity 技術導向 使用者導向
2007/1/17 24 The shipment and market of demand 2004 ~ 2010 PV demand forecast ( MW , include thin-film cell ) Demand 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Grid-connected 1200 1500 1875 2681 3834 5483 Off-grid 300 390 507 659 857 1114 Consumer 80 96 115 138 166 200 Total 1580 1986 2497 3478 4857 6797 PV application Type Application On grid Circuit of lighting, socket, air conditioner, waterworks, … Off-grid communication facilities, warning signal/indicator, road/garden lamp , … Emergency Lighting, communication and waterworks in emergency Consumer power supply or charger of 3C product, handset, vehicle , … Source : PIDA , 2006/12 Source : PIDA , 2006/12
2007/1/17 25 • Power demand • Mobile demand • Handset • Vehicle • Housing demand What kind of demand should we need ?
2007/1/17 26 Power demand Energy type Recent cost Target cost PV 20~40 4~10 Water 2~8 2 Wind 3~5 2~3 Geothermal 2~10 1~8 Comparison of renewable energy price ( cents / kwh ) Energy type country Water ( large-scale ) Canada、Brazil、China、USA、Russia Water ( small-scale ) China、AUS、India、New Zealand、Canada Wind Germany、USA、Spain、Denmark、Japan Geothermal Iceland、France、Philippines、Indonesia、MEX The development of renewable energy ( by country )
2007/1/17 27 Country Target Australia 2010 : 9500 million kwh /year Canada 3.5~15% China 2020 : 60,000 ~ 120,000 million watt Indian 2003~2012 :10% Israel 2007 : 2%，2016:5% Japan 2010 : 2% ( not include water and Geothermal power ) Korea 2010 : 7% ( include water power ) Norway 2010 : 700 million kwh ( not include wind and Geothermal power ) Singapore 2012 : 35 million kwh ( PV ) Switzerland 2010 : 3500 million kwh /year Thailand 2011 : 8% USA 5~30% ( in 18 states ) ，California  2017 : 20%( 3 GW ) UK 2010 : 10% Netherlands 2010 : 12% Germany 2010 : 12.5% Sweden 2010 : 60% Finland 2010 : 35% France 2010 : 21% Italy 2010 : 25% Spain 2010 : 29% Austria 2010 : 78% The usage of renewable energy ( by country )
2007/1/17 28 Power station -1 Stand-alone power station ( off grid )BIPV ( on grid )
2007/1/17 29 A symbol of PV system application Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas Wal-Mart BIPV system Wal-Mart recognizes the potential value of energy efficiency with RMI's help.
2007/1/17 30 photon kineticpotential WindSUN H2O electrochemistry PV electricity Fuel generator DC to AC Inverter Hybrid power station Power station -2
2007/1/17 31 tens of millions useful powerful mobile demand Shipments of Mobile phone is ~ 900kk Mp3 player is ~ 100kk DSC is ~ 80kk NB is ~ 60kk Car is ~ 55kk in 2006 beautiful valuable personal
2007/1/17 32 flexible Source：HEMVAN Source：MSI ，PIDA，2006/11 portable light- weight Handset-1 efficient beautiful
2007/1/17 33 iPod solar charger Source ：Soldius Mobile phone solar charger Source ：Solio，iSun Handset-2
2007/1/17 34 Beyond the presentation , The promotion of PEPSI ” Exclusive music. We got it. You want it. ”
2007/1/17 35 The acceptable price is … $ 139, 1.5 kg, 6.3 Watts, 16.6 V, 0.325 A $89,115g,6.58V,320mA,Charging time:2-4 hrs $99.95,156g,4~12V,0~1A, Internal battery: 3.6V, 1600mAhLithium Ion Soltronix AM/FM headphone radio $54.45, An internal antenna and bass boostbutton ensures excellent sound quality.
2007/1/17 36 Toyota Prius Hybrid Rooftop-mounted flexible (conformal) photovoltaic (PV) panels Source : Solatec Vehicle-1 Source : Mazda , SAAB
2007/1/17 37 solar powered airplane and boat Source : sunseeker，transatlantic21 Vehicle-2 Taiwan World NO.5
2007/1/17 38 2006-11-15 瑞士太陽能船挑戰橫越大西洋的壯舉 「Sun21」，太陽船21號計劃於今年十二月起程，將是全球首艘完成穿越大西洋的 太陽能動力船。 「Sun21」雙體帆船主要引用太陽能動力科技航行全程 (見下圖)，計劃從西班牙南 部的塞維爾城 (Sevilla)啟航，經佛得角群島 (Cape verde islands)，美國的佛羅里達 ，預定2007年春天到達美東的紐約，總航程約7000海哩。瑞士的Transatlantic21協 會( www.transatlantic21.ch ) 是此項創紀錄航行計劃的主持單位。 Sun21太陽能船 圖片來源：www.transatlantic21.ch 委託瑞士專業的太陽能船造船公司MW-Line SA建造的雙體帆船屬型號Aquabus C60 catamarans ，由雙座人造纖維材料製成的船身軀體、鋁材支架及木製船頂蓋組 合而成，船身長14公尺，船寬6.6公尺，船重量約12公噸， 動力設備置有13×6.5平 方公尺面積，10000瓦特電壓的太陽能電池模板，船速約每小時6 knot (12 km/h)， 可容納5至6人遠程航行，短程載客可達20人。 傳統以汽油為動力的船隻不僅耗油、馬達效率低且不合乎環保，相較下以太陽能光 電電池發動的電動馬達效率可達80%至90%，耗損低且環保，雖然目前造船成本仍 居高不下，約90萬美金，但以太陽能動力發電造船將是未來重要的替代能源科技之 一。 http://www.itri.de/index.php?rubrik=archive&artikel=738&PHPSESSID=ed7f30db51725deac0003e91c180d882
2007/1/17 39 Vehicle-3 Bluebird solar powered rickshaw Source : Bluebird
2007/1/17 40 Taxi in Bangkok , Thailand — A cool car / toy . Beyond the presentation ,
2007/1/17 41 Bus Stop Source : Carmanah，PIDA Vehicle-4
2007/1/17 42 Streetlamp in Bangkok , Thailand — The perfect integration between lighting and sculpturing. Beyond the presentation , Taiwan > 30kk
2007/1/17 43 housing demand Source：ZEDfactory，EERE Source :宮崎の森林・林業 10kw (~100 m2) PV = 19,500 m2 forest Source : NEDO 1:200
2007/1/17 44 ZED Environmental strategy Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10 housing -1
2007/1/17 45 ZED current price list of Components and Packages product specification Price(￡) Components Mono-crystaline PV Panel 80W(540mm x1200mm) 239 180W(800mm x 1600mm) 539 Grid-Tie solar inverter 1500 W 449 Solar Thermal array 18 x 58mm tubes 249 Ashwell Green- Tec Pellet boiler 4-15 kW Thermal 3,000 Packages Solar Electric PV Package 9 x 180W Mono-crystaline PV panels or 20 x 80W Mono- crystaline PV panels and 1 x Grid-Tie solar inverter 5,000 Solar Thermal Package 2 x 18 tube array, 300 litre twin coil tank,solar controller, expansion tank and pump station 2,250 Zero CarbonHot Water Package Solar Thermal Package above and Ashwell Green-Tec Pellet Boiler 5,000 housing -2 Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10
2007/1/17 46 housing -3 Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas Biomass and Wind ( windmill ) usage in Wal-Mart ( RMI tech. )
2007/1/17 47 housing -4 Bei Tou branch( EcologicalConservation ), TaipeiPublic Library
2007/1/17 48 The future Tech of AP-1 1. library flooring 2. walking flooring 3. wall paper 4. Projection screen ………… LED + PV Projector+ PV Source：PIDA
2007/1/17 49 PV system in space Source：NASA The future Tech of AP-2
2007/1/17 50 • 提昇國際競爭力 朝垂直整合前進 • Enhance competitiveness through vertical integration • 提早進入待(未)開發市場 • Access to under developed market • 藉由技術整合來擴大市場規模 • Enlarge market size through technical integration • 提高PV的附加價值 尋找利基市場 • Raise additional value of PV and find the niche position • 以「非環保」訴求來推銷PV產品 • Promote PV through ” Non – Environmental Issue” Conclusion
2007/1/17 51 Thank you

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2007.01 PV成果發表_slide_share

  • 2. 2007/1/17 2 到了鯨油用完後 煤油才蓬勃發展 供需之間 ～ PV 之美麗與憂愁 到了石油用完後 PV 才蓬勃發展 Between Demand and Supply ～ The next step of PV kerosene is popular after burning the Blubber out ! PV is popular after burning the Oil out ? Before the presentation ,
  • 3. 2007/1/17 3 Content • Why do we talk about PV ? • What is PV ? • The supply of PV • The demand of PV • The vision of PV • Conclusion
  • 4. 2007/1/17 4 Well-to-Wheel energy efficiency • Honda Civic  0.51 km/MJ • VW Jetta Diesel  0.45 km/MJ Source : Tesla Motors 1. 傳統能源終將 耗盡的危機 For live 2. 溫室效應的日 趨惡化 For survive The CO2 Emissions per 1 TJ ︰ Type The productof CO2 ( t / TJ ) Coal 94.4～98.3 Oil 69.3～77.4 Gas 56.1 Why do we talk about PV ? Type Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Proven reserves / Annual production ( years ) 42 64 155 85 ( Reasonable ) Source : COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
  • 5. 2007/1/17 5 A simple calculation about CO2 Emissions CO2 Coking Coal 燃料煤 2.48 ( kg / kg ) LPG 液化石油氣 1.74 ( kg / L ) Residual Fuel Oil 燃料油 2.95 ( kg / L ) dieseloil 柴油 2.68 ( kg / L ) Gasoline 汽油 2.34 ( kg / L ) Electricity 電 0.66 ( kg / kwh) • 約 6 億輛越野車碳的總排放量 • 約15 億輛小汽車碳的總排放量 Source : ROC Environmental Protection Administration Foundation of Taiwan Industry Service Taipei Tainan ~70kg ~130kg Carbon Dioxide Emissions ( by fuel type ) 每年碳的排放量 10億噸意味著什麼？
  • 6. 2007/1/17 6 PV ( Photo-Voltaic) is … PV Array Consumptive energy Coal Crude Oil Gas Solar Energy Battery Inverter Aerosphere Efficiency Loss Nuclear Efficiency Loss
  • 7. 2007/1/17 7 The supply of PV wafer Mine Silica stone Metallic silica Trichlorosilane (HSiCl3) poly-Si sc-Si slicing slicingcutting IC - chip casting CZ Crystal Puller Refining Purification - Deposition wafer wafer ingot The process of making PV -1
  • 8. 2007/1/17 8 Wafer measuring & testing Etching Diffusion Deposition Metalization Drying & Firing Cell measuring & testing Package & installation The process of making PV -2
  • 9. 2007/1/17 9 Comparison of market share in PV supply chain 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Si wafer cell module >=20% >=15% >=10% The rank of makers ( with high production capacity ) The ratio of market share Hemlock,27% REC-Scan Wafer,20% Sharp,11% Sharp,20% Q-Cells,10%Deutsche,16% M.SETEK,10% Tokuyama,15% REC,15% Wacker,15% MEMC,10% Silicon PV-wafer Cell Module Source : Companies , PIDA
  • 10. 2007/1/17 10 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 IC-demand 19,866 21,853 24,256 27,361 30,453 33,894 Si Solar-demand 18,558 21,483 25,879 39,215 48,745 61,788 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Silicon 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 supply 36,650 43,050 47,700 57,980 75,730 95,480 demand 38,424 43,336 50,135 66,576 79,198 95,682 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Source : Companies , PIDA 17.5% 10.8% 21.6% 30.6% 26.1% Supply and demand of c-Si feedstock ( t ) 27.8% 11.3% 12.8% 15.7% 32.8% 19.0% 20.8%
  • 11. 2007/1/17 11 Silicon Hemlock 26.6% Tokuyama 15.7% REC 15.4% Wacker 15.7% MEMC 10.1% Mitsubishi 7.9% Sumitomo 3.2% Others 5.3% Source : PHOTON International , PIDA Share of c-Si makers in 2006 Source : PHOTON International MG-Si makers capacities ( ton ) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Apollon / Ferroatlantica 200 200 - - - Dowing Corning 1,000 1,000 - - - ELKEM 50 50 5,000 5,000 - JFE 100 100 500 - 1,000 Scheuten 300 300 - 1,000 - Solar Value - - 1,100 - - Others - - - - 5,000 80% Siemens process
  • 12. 2007/1/17 12 REC ScanWafer 20.4% Deutsche Solar 16.3% M.SETEK 9.3% BP Solar 6.7% LDK 5.8% Others 29.1% Yingli 7.3% Green Energy 5.1% Wafer Share of PV wafer makers in 2006 Source : PHOTON International , PIDA
  • 13. 2007/1/17 13 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 wafer thickness 200 180 170 160 150 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Wafer thickness development (μm ) Source : EPIA String/Ribbon Sphelar® Source : Kyosemi Source : Evergreen, Schott Wafer sawing
  • 14. 2007/1/17 14 Cell Source : PHOTON International , PIDA Source : PIDA 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 Si consumption 12.85 12.13 10.62 9.19 8.93 8.58 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Sharp 18.5% Q-Cells 8.7% others 37.3% Kyocera 6.5% Sanyo 5.6% Mitsubishi 4.6% RWE Schott 4.1% Deutsche Cell 4.1% Motech 5.2% Suntech 5.6% Silicon consumption ( g / Wp )Share of PV cell makers in 2006 semiconductor-like process
  • 15. 2007/1/17 15 others 58.67% Sharp 11.12% MSK* 4.26% Kyocera 5.93% Sanyo 3.71% Mitsubishi 3.71% Suntech 3.71% 深圳珈偉 2.97% Solar Factory 2.97% Solon 2.97% Module Share of PV module makers in 2006 Source : PHOTON International , PIDA • Made in market • Customized / standard
  • 16. 2007/1/17 16 Module 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 supply 1,378 1,759 2,319 3,715 5,218 7,184 demand 1,296 1,640 1,929 2,735 3,916 5,386 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Supply and demand of c-Si PV module ( MW ) Source : PIDA 26.5% 17.6% 41.8% 43.2% 37.5% 33.3% 39.6%
  • 17. 2007/1/17 17 635 794 992 1,240 1,550 2,100 290 363 453 566 708 885 345 509 750 314 439 593 746 1,104 1,634 108 159 234 35 114 209 20 30 45 113 226 500 230 340 504 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GERMANY JAPAN US SPAIN, ITALY, FRANCE, GREECE & Portugal CHINA ROW Module Share of worldwide PV Module ( MW , include thin-film cell ) Source : PIDA
  • 18. 2007/1/17 18 Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon Sharp Q-Cells Kyocera BP Solar Sanyo Mitsubishi Motech Suntech Deutsche Cell E-Ton Evergreen Ever-Q REC-ScanWafer MEMC schott Sunways AG ErSol REC Deutsche Solar AG SolarWorld AG Shell Solar Thin-film Shell Solarchange over Solibro GmbH ( CIGS ) Suntech schott Evergreen Ever-Q schott BP Solar tech nano Strategy of top 10 cell makers schott Solar System Group Green Energy MSK M.SETEK Solar Factory BP Solar HIT Sharp ( a /μ Si efficiency 8.5% )Sharp Kyocera Sanyo Mitsubishi Solibro AB,Sweden 2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2) 2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW) 2006.11 Sunlight Comtec Kyocera AtersaSunEdison AE EFG wafer AVANCIS(CIS) Saint-Gobain glass Prime Solar SAS Hemlock Suntech Renesola Motech 日本 IIS 材料 日本 IIS 材料
  • 19. 2007/1/17 19 Poly-Si Ingot/wafer cell module/inverter Ribbon Sharp Q-Cells Kyocera BP Solar Sanyo Mitsubishi Motech Suntech Deutsche Cell E-Ton Evergreen Ever-Q REC-ScanWafer MEMC schott Sunways AG ErSol REC Deutsche Solar AG SolarWorld AG Shell Solar Thin-film Shell Solarchange over Solibro GmbH ( CIGS ) Suntech schott Evergreen Ever-Q schott BP Solar tech nano Strategy of top 10 cell makers schott Solar System Group Green Energy MSK M.SETEK Solar Factory BP Solar HIT Sharp ( a /μ Si efficiency 8.5% )Sharp Kyocera Sanyo Mitsubishi Solibro AB,Sweden 2006.10 – 18.5%(muti-Si 15cm2) 2006.11 – 20% in 2007(with UNSW) 2006.11 Sunlight Comtec Kyocera AtersaSunEdison AE EFG wafer AVANCIS(CIS) Saint-Gobain glass Prime Solar SAS Hemlock Suntech Renesola Motech 日本 IIS 材料 日本 IIS 材料 vertical integration
  • 20. 2007/1/17 20 System ~100% module ~70% cell ~50% c-Si ~15% Ingot ~6%，sawing ~3% package ~10% wafer ~30% inverter ~10%，install ~15% cost structure of PV system PV system : 7USD/Wp (module = 4.88 USD/Wp) 700cent / 20year ~ 32cent / KWH etching, diffusion,...~5% Taiwan residential electricity price (per kilowatt-hour ) is 2.51 NT ~ 8cents
  • 21. 2007/1/17 21 Solar Electricity Prices Mass production for cost reduction ( 1 ~ 1,5 € / W in 2012 ) Source : EPIA 1.2 ~ 1.8 USD Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1
  • 22. 2007/1/17 22 The price of PV module and Petroleum Petroleum ( USD / basket ) 50 55 60 65 70 05'12 06'01 06'02 06'03 06'04 06'05 06'06 06'07 06'08 06'09 06'10 06'11 06'12 Source : solarbuzz , 2007/1 Source : OPEC , 2007/1 PV module ( 125W, USD / Wp ) 4.7 4.75 4.8 4.85 4.9 05'12 06'01 06'02 06'03 06'04 06'05 06'06 06'07 06'08 06'09 06'10 06'11 06'12 10% 1%
  • 23. 2007/1/17 23 Eat enough Eat good Eat healthy Identification & Individualism Making consumers followers , we need to follow them first. The demand of PV Does it works ? Is it useful ? Do you like it ? User Centered Design Maker Centered Design The demand of humanity 技術導向 使用者導向
  • 24. 2007/1/17 24 The shipment and market of demand 2004 ~ 2010 PV demand forecast ( MW , include thin-film cell ) Demand 2005 2006 2007(f) 2008(f) 2009(f) 2010(f) Grid-connected 1200 1500 1875 2681 3834 5483 Off-grid 300 390 507 659 857 1114 Consumer 80 96 115 138 166 200 Total 1580 1986 2497 3478 4857 6797 PV application Type Application On grid Circuit of lighting, socket, air conditioner, waterworks, … Off-grid communication facilities, warning signal/indicator, road/garden lamp , … Emergency Lighting, communication and waterworks in emergency Consumer power supply or charger of 3C product, handset, vehicle , … Source : PIDA , 2006/12 Source : PIDA , 2006/12
  • 25. 2007/1/17 25 • Power demand • Mobile demand • Handset • Vehicle • Housing demand What kind of demand should we need ?
  • 26. 2007/1/17 26 Power demand Energy type Recent cost Target cost PV 20~40 4~10 Water 2~8 2 Wind 3~5 2~3 Geothermal 2~10 1~8 Comparison of renewable energy price ( cents / kwh ) Energy type country Water ( large-scale ) Canada、Brazil、China、USA、Russia Water ( small-scale ) China、AUS、India、New Zealand、Canada Wind Germany、USA、Spain、Denmark、Japan Geothermal Iceland、France、Philippines、Indonesia、MEX The development of renewable energy ( by country )
  • 27. 2007/1/17 27 Country Target Australia 2010 : 9500 million kwh /year Canada 3.5~15% China 2020 : 60,000 ~ 120,000 million watt Indian 2003~2012 :10% Israel 2007 : 2%，2016:5% Japan 2010 : 2% ( not include water and Geothermal power ) Korea 2010 : 7% ( include water power ) Norway 2010 : 700 million kwh ( not include wind and Geothermal power ) Singapore 2012 : 35 million kwh ( PV ) Switzerland 2010 : 3500 million kwh /year Thailand 2011 : 8% USA 5~30% ( in 18 states ) ，California  2017 : 20%( 3 GW ) UK 2010 : 10% Netherlands 2010 : 12% Germany 2010 : 12.5% Sweden 2010 : 60% Finland 2010 : 35% France 2010 : 21% Italy 2010 : 25% Spain 2010 : 29% Austria 2010 : 78% The usage of renewable energy ( by country )
  • 28. 2007/1/17 28 Power station -1 Stand-alone power station ( off grid )BIPV ( on grid )
  • 29. 2007/1/17 29 A symbol of PV system application Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas Wal-Mart BIPV system Wal-Mart recognizes the potential value of energy efficiency with RMI's help.
  • 30. 2007/1/17 30 photon kineticpotential WindSUN H2O electrochemistry PV electricity Fuel generator DC to AC Inverter Hybrid power station Power station -2
  • 31. 2007/1/17 31 tens of millions useful powerful mobile demand Shipments of Mobile phone is ~ 900kk Mp3 player is ~ 100kk DSC is ~ 80kk NB is ~ 60kk Car is ~ 55kk in 2006 beautiful valuable personal
  • 33. 2007/1/17 33 iPod solar charger Source ：Soldius Mobile phone solar charger Source ：Solio，iSun Handset-2
  • 34. 2007/1/17 34 Beyond the presentation , The promotion of PEPSI ” Exclusive music. We got it. You want it. ”
  • 35. 2007/1/17 35 The acceptable price is … $ 139, 1.5 kg, 6.3 Watts, 16.6 V, 0.325 A $89,115g,6.58V,320mA,Charging time:2-4 hrs $99.95,156g,4~12V,0~1A, Internal battery: 3.6V, 1600mAhLithium Ion Soltronix AM/FM headphone radio $54.45, An internal antenna and bass boostbutton ensures excellent sound quality.
  • 36. 2007/1/17 36 Toyota Prius Hybrid Rooftop-mounted flexible (conformal) photovoltaic (PV) panels Source : Solatec Vehicle-1 Source : Mazda , SAAB
  • 37. 2007/1/17 37 solar powered airplane and boat Source : sunseeker，transatlantic21 Vehicle-2 Taiwan World NO.5
  • 38. 2007/1/17 38 2006-11-15 瑞士太陽能船挑戰橫越大西洋的壯舉 「Sun21」，太陽船21號計劃於今年十二月起程，將是全球首艘完成穿越大西洋的 太陽能動力船。 「Sun21」雙體帆船主要引用太陽能動力科技航行全程 (見下圖)，計劃從西班牙南 部的塞維爾城 (Sevilla)啟航，經佛得角群島 (Cape verde islands)，美國的佛羅里達 ，預定2007年春天到達美東的紐約，總航程約7000海哩。瑞士的Transatlantic21協 會( www.transatlantic21.ch ) 是此項創紀錄航行計劃的主持單位。 Sun21太陽能船 圖片來源：www.transatlantic21.ch 委託瑞士專業的太陽能船造船公司MW-Line SA建造的雙體帆船屬型號Aquabus C60 catamarans ，由雙座人造纖維材料製成的船身軀體、鋁材支架及木製船頂蓋組 合而成，船身長14公尺，船寬6.6公尺，船重量約12公噸， 動力設備置有13×6.5平 方公尺面積，10000瓦特電壓的太陽能電池模板，船速約每小時6 knot (12 km/h)， 可容納5至6人遠程航行，短程載客可達20人。 傳統以汽油為動力的船隻不僅耗油、馬達效率低且不合乎環保，相較下以太陽能光 電電池發動的電動馬達效率可達80%至90%，耗損低且環保，雖然目前造船成本仍 居高不下，約90萬美金，但以太陽能動力發電造船將是未來重要的替代能源科技之 一。 http://www.itri.de/index.php?rubrik=archive&artikel=738&PHPSESSID=ed7f30db51725deac0003e91c180d882
  • 39. 2007/1/17 39 Vehicle-3 Bluebird solar powered rickshaw Source : Bluebird
  • 40. 2007/1/17 40 Taxi in Bangkok , Thailand — A cool car / toy . Beyond the presentation ,
  • 41. 2007/1/17 41 Bus Stop Source : Carmanah，PIDA Vehicle-4
  • 42. 2007/1/17 42 Streetlamp in Bangkok , Thailand — The perfect integration between lighting and sculpturing. Beyond the presentation , Taiwan > 30kk
  • 43. 2007/1/17 43 housing demand Source：ZEDfactory，EERE Source :宮崎の森林・林業 10kw (~100 m2) PV = 19,500 m2 forest Source : NEDO 1:200
  • 44. 2007/1/17 44 ZED Environmental strategy Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10 housing -1
  • 45. 2007/1/17 45 ZED current price list of Components and Packages product specification Price(￡) Components Mono-crystaline PV Panel 80W(540mm x1200mm) 239 180W(800mm x 1600mm) 539 Grid-Tie solar inverter 1500 W 449 Solar Thermal array 18 x 58mm tubes 249 Ashwell Green- Tec Pellet boiler 4-15 kW Thermal 3,000 Packages Solar Electric PV Package 9 x 180W Mono-crystaline PV panels or 20 x 80W Mono- crystaline PV panels and 1 x Grid-Tie solar inverter 5,000 Solar Thermal Package 2 x 18 tube array, 300 litre twin coil tank,solar controller, expansion tank and pump station 2,250 Zero CarbonHot Water Package Solar Thermal Package above and Ashwell Green-Tec Pellet Boiler 5,000 housing -2 Source：ZEDfactory，2006/10
  • 46. 2007/1/17 46 housing -3 Source ： Wal-Mart in McKinney, Texas Biomass and Wind ( windmill ) usage in Wal-Mart ( RMI tech. )
  • 47. 2007/1/17 47 housing -4 Bei Tou branch( EcologicalConservation ), TaipeiPublic Library
  • 48. 2007/1/17 48 The future Tech of AP-1 1. library flooring 2. walking flooring 3. wall paper 4. Projection screen ………… LED + PV Projector+ PV Source：PIDA
  • 49. 2007/1/17 49 PV system in space Source：NASA The future Tech of AP-2
  • 50. 2007/1/17 50 • 提昇國際競爭力 朝垂直整合前進 • Enhance competitiveness through vertical integration • 提早進入待(未)開發市場 • Access to under developed market • 藉由技術整合來擴大市場規模 • Enlarge market size through technical integration • 提高PV的附加價值 尋找利基市場 • Raise additional value of PV and find the niche position • 以「非環保」訴求來推銷PV產品 • Promote PV through ” Non – Environmental Issue” Conclusion