2013 04 rca_foresight
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The document discusses foresight and scenarios. It describes foresight as involving cycles, trends, issues and events that impact the future. Scenarios are described as plausible futures that can be mapped on two axes and described through narratives. Examples are provided of issues and trends cards used in foresight, and of outputs like research areas and ideas generated from foresight work. The approaches of experts and crowds are contrasted. A case study of a Jordan national foresight campaign is summarized, including its goals and stakeholders.
2013 04 rca_foresight
- 1. FORESIGHT + SCENARIOS DUNCAN WILSON INTEL COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES WWW.CITIES.IO @DJDUNC
- 2. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
- 3. FORESIGHT NOW NEW NEXT, WHY, DRIVERS OF CHANGE, STEEP, JORDAN DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES SCENARIOS PLAUSIBLE FUTURES, 2 AXIS, NARRATIVES
- 4. FORESIGHT CYCLES: things which change and then change back (industry cycles) ISSUES: things which people disagree about (GM crops) TRENDS: things which change in one direction (increase in e-commerce) EVENTS: happenings that impact on the future (Kyoto Protocol, 9/11) DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES NOW NEW NEXT
- 5. gut + heart + head
- 6. WHY INVEST IN FORESIGHT? Better anticipate and manage change. Build resilience into business strategies. Pool ideas to drive business development. Understand the different contexts we are moving towards. Identify opportunities before or as they arise. To proactively mitigate business risks. Engage staff in debate and build consensus. Generate momentum to support strategies and programmes. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
- 7. change is constant; context is variable.
- 9. Anatomy of a card Question Photo Fact Issue Data DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
- 10. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
- 11. EXPERT VS CROWD VOTE VS CURATED
- 13. Client: HRH Princess Sumaya bint El Hassan, President of El Hassan Science City Brief: - Support the National Agenda - Identity issues, actions and research areas - Educate a wide group of citizens - Promote a national discussion on important issues - Create a body of knowledge as a foundation for action, - Developing a National information System Output: - Develop a resilient and meaningful national strategy. - Foster innovations that contribute to economic growth. - Empower local communities Foresight contact: Paul Oliver The National Campaign on Public Awareness for the Drivers of Change CASE STUDY: JORDAN NATIONAL CAMPAIGN
- 14. Stakeholders & participants • Government ministries – senior civil servants. • Local government – political and administration. • Civil society – including local small businesses and service providers, women‟s groups, refugee communities, NGOs and rural communities. • University undergraduates and postgraduates • Pre-university students. • Business – senior executives, wide range of industry sectors, major players by % of GDP. • Academics (university level) – multiple disciplines, including social, demographics, science and economics. • Jordanian armed forces – current and retired. • Royal Jordanian Geographic Centre • Department of Statistics Page 14.
- 15. Waste: When does waste become a resource? Page 15. Research: Waste kg/person/day Research: Energy consumed in transportation Research: Energy & water consumed in reprocessing Research: Capital cost of reprocessing plants Research: Demographic forecasts Idea: Build a CHP plant? Idea: Charge for collecting non-recyclable waste + pay for recyclable waste? Idea: Set up local points for waste sorting? Idea: Public education to consume less packaging? Idea: Tax packaging at source? Example output
- 16. FORESIGHT NOW NEW NEXT, WHY, DRIVERS OF CHANGE, STEEP, JORDAN DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES SCENARIOS PLAUSIBLE FUTURES, 2 AXIS, NARRATIVES
- 17. OUR APPROACH DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES
- 18. Context Business travel will continue to grow. How confident are we in this official future? What else could happen? Insights Choreographing Sensations Susan Kozel, Artist, School of Interactive Arts & Technology Cars. That’s a Man’s World. Mogens Laursen, Brand Development Manger, Volvo Guests of the Future Simon Dannatt, CEO, Kae Marketing Intelligence Concepts One Space Fluid, open space with interconnected rooms We-hive Plug-in rooms are organized according to a network of tribes Ego Hotel Highly self-expressive guest pods situated around transportation hubs Tactiles Sensual space sensitive to its guest‟s needs Hotels of the Future The Business Traveller Hilton International, Copenhagen
- 19. Context The role of the city as the centre of commerce is thousands of years old. Why wouldn‟t it stay this way? Insights High Street Success Factors Christoph Ackert, Chairman, Location Services Guerilla Retailing Russ Miller, Vacant A Never Ending Love Story? Dieter Geissbuehler, Architect, Alexander Galiker DG und Partner City Centre Retail Gazette 2025 Concepts The Love Inn Holistic leisure club and social beauty centre Spiral to Heaven Comprehensive health check- up retailing space Digital Rough Guide Culturally-sensitive shopping guide for the global consumer Empty Spaces Disused space „mobbed‟ and „swarmed‟ for social shopping City Centre Retail 2025 Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute, Zurich
- 20. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES PATENTABLE
- 21. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES 2 AXIS
- 22. The Global Human Development Index (HDI) combines three basic dimensions: 1) life expectancy at birth as an indicator of the health and longevity of a population; 2) adult literacy and the gross enrolment in primary, secondary and tertiary educational institutions; and 3) standard of living, as measured by the natural logarithm of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita at a purchasing power parity in US Dollars. Many consider this to be a much better evaluation of the health of a nation or economy than solely the
- 23. Planetary Health represents the capacity of the planet to support a wide variety of life, for example, the number of species, bio- diversity, pollution, abundance and fertility, etc. In this context, we are interested in the carrying capacity of the planetary system.
- 25. Bloc Islands Re-globalisation Global Yo-YoFlat Line Bloc Islands GLOBAL GOVERNANCE ECONOMICGROWTH OFFICIAL FUTURES
- 26. a global view
- 27. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES DESIGN “YOU DON‟T HAVE TO EXPLAIN EVERYTHING”
- 28. DUNCAN WILSON – INTEL ICRI CITIES – @DJDUNC – WWW.CITIES.IO - SUSTAINABLE CONNECTED CITIES @DJDUNC WWW.IOT.IO WWW.CITIES.IO
Editor's Notes
- #3: MY CONTEXT
- #11: STEEP
- #12: we also did an exhibition in a shipping container for design week in tokyo – we had a sushi bar conveyor carrying the cards plus blanks – we received 1200 issues over the duration of the 1 week show.
- #15: 50-100 workshops to be held – we are coaching the Jordanian team facilitating the events.TouringDoC bus collating feedback on the ground.Web-site to support on-line community.
- #16: The multitude of workshops are all leading to the development of a set of drivers of change cards for Jordan. Whilst this provides a focus for the project team there are many other deliverables on route. In addition to the campaign aspect of raising awareness and inclusivity the output of the drivers raised at each workshop are also acting as input to establish research and innovation agendas. For example, an issue raises the question, which in turn leads to the identification of research requirements, which also informs the creation of ideas. The platform being developed for capturing issues driving change is also generating a platform for open innovation at the national scale to encourage new and emerging business.
- #26: The different worlds are created by selecting 2 issues that when mapped as opposites in a 4 square allow us to explore 4 very different worlds. One square will often be the official future – the other three are often difficult “hard to think about” scenarios that seem implausible to those working in the industry
- #27: for example between 2005 and 2008 we collected the opinion of 1000’s of people on where they thought we were today (e.g. C) and where they thought we were heading in 20 years time (e.g. C’) – the arrows show the trends of movement of votes from one quadrant to another.