2016 conservation track: a climate change vulnerability framework and interactive visualization tool by jennifer horsman
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Research Planning, Inc. developed a climate change vulnerability framework and interactive visualization tool to assess vulnerability of habitats, resources, and infrastructure in Corales del Rosario y San Bernardo National Natural Park in Colombia. The framework scores sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity to climate factors like sea level rise to calculate vulnerability. An interactive GIS tool allows viewing vulnerability scores and inundation levels over time under different scenarios. The tool aims to inform park management and adaptation planning.
2016 conservation track: a climate change vulnerability framework and interactive visualization tool by jennifer horsman
- 1. A Climate Change Vulnerability Framework and Interactive Visualization Tool Adriana C. Bejarano and Jennifer L. Horsman Research Planning, Inc. (RPI)
- 2. Acknowledgements Funding for this project was provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through the U.S. National Park Service (NPS). The authors would like to thank Parque Nacionales Naturales de Colombia for their significant contributions.
- 3. Research Planning, Inc. (RPI), in partnership with the National Park Service and ICF International, coordinated the development of a scoring framework and an interactive visualization tool to assesses the vulnerability of one of the Natural National Parks of Colombia to impacts associated with climate change (e.g., sea level rise, storm surge).
- 4. A climate change vulnerability framework was specifically developed for Corales del Rosario y San Bernardo National Natural Park (PNNCRSB), Colombia, a park designated to protect coastal and marine environments.
- 5. Corales del Rosario y San Bernardo National Natural Park (PNNCRSB) Islands comprising areas of PNNCRSB: a) Rosario; b) Tesoro (archipelago of Rosario); c) Mangle; and d) Marvillosa (archipelago of San Bernardo). Photos: Esteban Zarza (b,c,d); Idalberto Peralta (a). Source: Zarza-González and PNN, 2011
- 6. The primary objective of this project was to use area- specific information to assess the vulnerability of coastal and marine habitats, and biological and socioeconomic resources including infrastructure to several climate change factors. Vulnerability scores were developed based on resource- specific sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity scores associated with several climate change factors (sea surface and air temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, sea level rise and inundation from extreme events). Some PNNCRSB resources: a) Aerial view of coral reefs on Tintipán Island (archipelago of San Bernardo); b) Mangrove forests; c) Sandy shoreline; d) Seagrasses; e) Coastal lagoons and sandy coasts; and f) Coral reef on Tesoro Island (archipelago of Rosario). Photos: Cap. Jaime Borda (a,e); Esteban Zarza (b,c); Izumi Tsurita (d,f). Source: Zarza-González and PNN, 2011
- 7. The climate change vulnerability framework Sensitivity− the extent to which a resource is susceptible or sensitive to changes induced by one or more climate change factors and is a function of resource-specific thresholds and tolerances to specific climate change factors. Exposure− the extent to which a resource is directly and physically impacted by changes induced by one or more climate change factors. Exposure depends on the degree of exceedance of resource-specific thresholds, as well as to the degree of physical exposure experienced by the resource. Adaptive capacity− the potential capacity of a resource to adapt, adjust or cope with changes induced by one or more climate change factors moderating, reducing or minimizing the magnitude of adverse direct effects. These include responses leading to restored essential function, identity, structure and feedbacks. Adaptive capacity could be greatly influenced by resource-specific inherent characteristics, which for the purpose of this research included: dependency; level of specialization; dispersal/movement; functional diversity; key features and uniqueness; conservation levels and status, management priority; existing threats. These and possibly other non-climate change-related characteristics may contribute to a resource’s ability to respond to climate change. Vulnerability− the propensity or predisposition of a resource to be vulnerable or adversely impacted by climate change. Vulnerability is a function of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity.
- 8. Sensitivity RESOURCE TYPE Habitats and Biological Resources (29 attributes) Turtle nesting sites Socio- economic, infrastructure and tourism (18 attributes) Hotels Sea/air temperature Scoring supported by peer-review literature, reports and/or best professional judgment Exposure* Adaptive capacity Resource Type Resource name Sensitivity Exposure Adaptability Final Vulnerability ScoreS1 S2 … E4 E5 … A1 A2 … Habitat and Biological Resources B1 B2 … B29 Socio- economic, infrastructure and tourism Infrastructure E1 E2 … E18 The color scheme presented here is for illustrative purposes only CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY SCORING EXAMPLE Vulnerability Scores LOW MODERATE HIGH Scores LOW HIGH Scores HIGH MODERATE LOW CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY APPROACH FOR “CORALES DEL ROSARIO Y SAN BERNARDO” NATIONAL NATURAL PARK, COLOMBIA Precipitation and hydrological regimes Ocean acidification Sea level rise Shoreline changes, erosion Extreme events, inundation Dependency Level of specialization Dispersal/ movement Functional diversity Key features, uniqueness Existing threats Conservation level and status Sea/air temperature Precipitation and hydrological regimes Ocean acidification Sea level rise Extreme events, inundation Birds Corals Mangroves Lagoons … Crops Recreational beaches Docks Coastal protection projects Park’s facilities … * Based on resource-specific thresholds and area-specific climate change scenarios KEY COMPONENTS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY APPROACH
- 9. green 5-6 yellow 7-8 red 9-10 green 6-9 yellow 10-13 red 14-18 green 7-11 yellow 12-16 red 17-21 Sensitivity Adaptability Exposure time series 2010 - 2100 Final Vulnerability Scores (Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios) time series 2010-2100 5 year intervals EXPOSURE SCORES All exposure scores change with time. For some resources, exposure is spatially dependent upon permanent inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) and temporary inundation due to storm surge. SLR is calculated based on rates of 2.88 mm/yr and 5.64 mm/yr for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Storm surge values are 20 cm and 50 cm. Subsidence rates of -3.66 mm/yr and -7 mm/yr are included in the calculation.
- 10. Weighted vulnerability is calculated by multiplying a scale factor to the vulnerability scores based on which management zone each grid cell is in. There are 3 management zones (pictured at right): High conservation priority zone – scale factor 1.5 Natural recovery zone – scale factor 1.25 Recreational zone – scale factor 1 Weighted vulnerability
- 11. Birds Rocky shores Algae Soft bottoms Dry forest Corals Coastal lagoons Mangroves Sea grasses Sediments Crops Vegetation mosaic Recreational beaches Recreational lagoons Shoreline protection PNNCRSB facilities Housing Topo to Raster (10 m) Magna- Sirgas Central Assign 1 for presence and 0 for absence to all AOI grid cells for each resource Point Density with 10 m raster output Buffer 30 m Data processing steps used to develop the PNNCRSB Climate Change tool Cell Statistics MAX + Highest Position Vector Datasets SRTM 30 m DEM Shorelines Presence/Absence (1/0) grids for all resources Sea Turtles Clip to PNNCRSB boundary snap to DEM Clip to buffer and PNNCRSB boundary static scores Sensitivity scores Adaptability scores Sensitivity Adaptability Exposure time series 2010 - 2100 Final Vulnerability Scores (Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios) time series 2010-2100 time series 2010-2100 Inundation due to sea level rise 0/1 Inundation due to storm surge 0/1 Raster Calculator multiply Exposure scores time series 2010 - 2100 Permanent inundation scores time series 2010 - 2100 Temporary inundation scores time series 2010 - 2100 Raster Calculator add Area of interest (AOI) grid Raster Calculator multiply Raster Calculator add Highest score in each cell
- 12. The original 30 m SRTM DEM is very coarse. The most current (2005-2012) measured coastlines are in red. Using the Topo to Raster tool in ArcGIS, the 30 m DEM was resampled to 10 m and the measured coastlines were used to confine sea level. Resampling the elevation model
- 13. The resampled 10 m zero-level contour (red lines) matches the coastline in the imagery better than those of the SRTM 30 m DEM (yellow lines).
- 14. A sea turtle density surface was created using the Point Density tool in ArcGIS on sea turtle locations (in red) with dates 2000 or later. The density surface was clipped to a 30 m buffer around the shoreline. Modeling sea turtle locations with a density surface
- 15. AOI grid colored by grid cell unique ID: 12,834,567 cells Presence/absence grids were created for all resources based on an area of interest (AOI) grid and whether or not a resource was present (value=1) or not (value=0) in each grid cell. Presence/absence (0/1) grids for all resources
- 16. Developing the interactive visualization tool The tool panel was developed in VB .net with ArcObjects as an ArcMap Add-In. It is a dockable window that is opened by clicking on a control button in a custom toolbar. The toolbar currently has one button, and it can be customized to include other tools such as zoom, pan, and the time slider control.
- 20. The climate change vulnerability visualization tool panel Switch symbology between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios Switch symbology between weighted and unweighted vulnerability scores Select a single resource to display vulnerability values for Vulnerability scoring scale with 10 value ranges Chart displaying the total area covered by each score range in the visible extent Refresh button turns on Active View Refresh listener for pan and zoom events Show table of attributes for resources visible in the current extent Change transparency value for vulnerability score layer Select an island to zoom to Turn on/off inundation line, base map imagery, and pop-up info window Display PDF instructions document
- 21. Questions? Jennifer L. Horsman Research Planning, Inc. (RPI) jhorsman@researchplanning.com 803.608.8106 Paper (in press, Climate Research): A climate change vulnerability framework for Corales del Rosario y San Bernardo National Natural Park, Colombia http://www.researchplanning.com