5. agile estimation reconsidered again esteban sanchez
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Esteban Sanchez from Galorath Incorporated gave a presentation on estimating agile software projects. He discussed that while some argue estimates provide little value, organizations need estimates for planning and accountability. He presented different types of estimates including backlog estimates for high-level analysis and sprint estimates for team planning. Key factors for estimates include size metrics, team dynamics like velocity, and project characteristics. Story points should be supplemented with a standard metric like function points. Sprint 0 and back-end work like integration and testing also need to be estimated for a complete agile project estimate.
5. agile estimation reconsidered again esteban sanchez
- 2. About The Speaker Born and raised in the tropical Costa Rica Senior Cost Estimation Consultant at Galorath Inc. Works with customers around the world to estimate Software, Hardware and IT Projects
- 3. Outline Background Agile Estimates – Are they necessary? Types of Estimates Size Metric for Agile Project Story Points or Function Points? How about both? Variables (Team Size, Sprint Duration, Velocity) More on Velocity – Industry Standard Velocity Sprint 0 Back-End Integration and UAT The Complete Agile Estimate
- 4. In the Beginning… The Cone of Uncertainty Gave Visibility to Cost Risk!
- 5. Jump into the Time Machine… 2001 The Agile Manifesto was conceived as collection of loose, iterative, customer centric development methods… - Agile - … and the difficulty of estimating Agile began!
- 6. Agile Estimation Shouldn’t be More Difficult It’s Just Another Methodology ROM Detailed Estimate Maximum Uncertainty Evolving Complexity
- 7. Agile Estimates – Are they necessary? #NoEstimates Estimates are difficult to produce Provide little to no value Estimation is overhead and should be minimized #Estimates Organizations need to do budget planning Estimates are needed to make informed decisions CXOs need estimates for accountability to shareholders Social Networks have created discord around Agile Estimates…
- 8. Parametric Modeling sustains the #Estimates argument Extensive Research on Agile Estimation Field Experiences Working with Customers Best Practices Proven to be Meaningful and Beneficial Sizing Methods Processes Training Tools (SEER-SEM Agile Planner)
- 9. Agile Estimates have Differing Fidelity Backlog Estimate ROM One Estimate for the Entire Project Useful for High Level Analysis and Budget Planning Can be built early with limited information Sprint Estimate Detailed Estimates are generated at the Sprint Level Useful for Team Planning and Tracking Considers all information (Velocity, Team Size, Sprint Duration )
- 10. Backlog Estimate = Big PictureFeatures Project Characteristics Team Dynamics
- 11. Sprint Estimate = Delivery DetailFeatures Project Characteristics Team Dynamics
- 12. Size Continues to be the Main Driver Pick a Metric and Be Consistent! Function Points Use Cases T-Shirt Sizes
- 13. Project Characteristics What is it running on? (Cloud, PC, Mobile, etc.) What will it do? (CRM, Database, Embedded) What Agile Method? (SCRUM is the most widely used) How will you build it? (New, Modification, Rehost) How much Governance? (IEEE, ISO 9001, etc.) @Galorath we call these Knowledge Bases
- 14. Team Dynamics Development Team Size • Optimal Size can be calculated • Everyone available on day 1? Backlog Size • What is the team tasked to complete? SPRINT Duration • Timebox duration for an iteration • 4 and 2 weeks are the most common Team Velocity • What is “doable” in a SPRINT • If not known, it can be computed (discussed in slide 20)
- 15. What About Story Points? Advantages Easy to Use No Training Required Promotes cross-functional behavior (teams can compare similar things) Current Trends People questioning their usefulness Challenges Not Standard/Team Specific Difficult to Explain Difficult (maybe impossible) to Benchmark They are started to be abandoned Story Points Inflation
- 16. Quest for Productivity Measurement Induces Inflation 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 StoryPoints Sprints Project Monitoring Begins This is what happens when you don’t have a standard sizing metric, like Function Points
- 17. Story Points Must be Tempered by a Standard Metric – Galorath Approach Function Points (or SLOC) used as the Underpinning Metric Team Variance in Story Points must be accommodated A FP Counter must understand the Agile Team “Standards” to normalize the count Final Estimate will reflect the Team Specific Productivity
- 18. How it Works
- 19. Same Point Counts - Different Results Same Story Point Counts Different Teams Different Estimates 715 FPs310 FPs Team A Team B
- 20. Agile is all about Velocity Sprint X Staff = 5 People Duration = 4 Weeks Effort = 800 Hours Cost = $120K So, what is the Product Owner getting?
- 21. Given a Velocity… what can we deliver for any given project type? Velocity = Commitments for the Sprint Velocity is a metric of Software Size/Sprint It is not magic, it can be predicted Industry Data provides a predictive model for productivity 20 FPs/Sprin t 87 FPs/Sprin t We call this “Industry Standard Velocity” Productivity
- 22. Computing the Number of Sprints The number of Sprints drives the estimated Cost and Duration Backlog Size = 540 SPs Velocity = 90 FPs/Sprint Voila, We have an Estimate!!!
- 24. Industry calls this “Sprint 0” The work before the Project can start For example: Planning and Setup We believe Sprint 0 should be estimated Duration/Effort may be More/Less Than a Typical Sprint SPRINT 0 Env. Setup Team Setup Backlog Plan
- 25. Back-End Work Typically, some work needs to be done after you are done “Sprinting” Final System Level Integration User Acceptance Testing Final Check-out and Certification Warranty/Maintenance The Estimate would NOT be Complete if this is Ignored Should be Estimated Based on the Overall Backlog Size
- 26. The Complete Agile Estimate Full Estimate Including: Pre-Sprint Work (Backlog Planning, team Setup, Env. Setup) Sprint Iterations (Design/Code/Test) Back-End Work (SIT, UAT, etc.)
- 27. Our Journey Continues… At Galorath we have performed extensive research and worked collaboratively with an international customer base to understand their estimation needs in an Agile Environment All knowledge has been incorporated into the new Agile Planner capability in SEER-SEM The journey is just starting… We will continue to make and offer improvements based upon our on- going research, staying abreast of industry trends and listening to the voice of the customer