A basic course on analytical thinking

A COURSE ON
ANALYTICAL THINKING

COURSE OUTLINE
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I. Overall Process
II. Defining the Problem
III. Formulating the Hypothesis
IV. Collecting the Facts
V. Conducting the Analysis
VI. Developing the Solution

OBJECTIVES
Provide a fundamental understanding of how analytical
thinking works
Identify specific tools and techniques that students can use
during the problem solving life cycle
Give students a complete framework for managing project
issues – from identification to resolution
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AT THE END OF THIS
COURSE, PARTICIPANTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO….
Understand the systematic process of problem
solving
Define the issue as a starting point for your project
Focus on the “drivers” behind your issue
Know how to apply specific techniques, such as
brainstorming, root cause analysis, and SWOT
Know how to test your proposed solutions before
submission to the client
Know how to present viable solutions for solving
critical problems
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ANALYTICAL THINKING
FOLLOWS THE SCIENTIFIC
APPROACH TO PROBLEM
SOLVING
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Problem
Hypothesis
FactsAnalysis
Solution

DEFINING THE PROBLEM
Definition:
A problem is a situation that is judged as something that needs to be
corrected – implies that a state of "wholeness" does not exist
Important:
It is our job to make sure we’re solving the right problem – it may not be
the one presented to us by the client. What do we really need to solve?
Basic Concepts:
Most of the problems are initially identified by our clients
Defining the problem clearly improves focus – it drives the analytical
process
Getting to a clearly defined problem is often discovery driven – Start with
a conceptual definition and through analysis (root cause, impact
analysis, etc.) you shape and redefine the problem in terms of issues
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Problem
Hypothesis
FactsAnalysis
Solution

FORMULATING THE
HYPOTHESES
Definition:
Hypothesis is a tentative explanation for an observation that
can be tested (i.e. proved or disproved) by further
investigation
Importance:
Start at the end - Figuring out the solution to the problem, i.e.
"hypothesizing", before you start will help build a roadmap
for approaching the problem
Basic Concepts:
Hypotheses can be expressed as possible root causes of the
problem
Breaking down the problem into key drivers (root causes)
can help formulate a hypotheses 88 ofof
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Problem
Hypothesis
FactsAnalysis
Solution

COLLECTING THE FACTS
Definition:
Meaningful information (has merit – not false) that is qualitative
(expert opinions) or quantitative (measurable performance) to your
decisions
Importance:
Gathering relevant data and information is a critical step in
supporting the analyses required for proving or disproving the
hypotheses
Basic Concepts:
Know where to dig
Know how to filter through information
Know how to verify – Has happened in the past
Know how to apply – Relates to what you are trying to solve
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Problem
Hypothesis
FactsAnalysis
Solution

CONDUCTING THE
ANALYSIS
Definition:
The deliberate process of breaking a problem down through
the application of knowledge and various analytical techniques
Importance:
Analysis of the facts is required to prove or disprove the
hypotheses
Analysis provides an understanding of issues and drivers
behind the problem
Basic Concepts:
It is generally better to spend more time analyzing the data and
information as opposed to collecting them. The goal is to find
the “golden nuggets” that quickly confirm or deny a hypothesis
Root cause analysis, storyboarding, and force field analysis
are some of many analytical techniques that can applied
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Problem
Hypothesis
FactsAnalysis
Solution

DEVELOPING THE
SOLUTION
Definition:
Solutions are the final recommendations presented to our
clients based on the outcomes of the hypothesis testing
Importance:
Solutions are what our clients pay us for…
Basic Concepts:
It is important to ensure the solution fits the client –
solutions are useless if they cannot be implemented
Running an actual example through the solution is an
effective way of testing the effectiveness and viability of
the solution
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Problem
Hypothesis
FactsAnalysis
Solution

TOOLS AND
TECHNIQUES FOR
"DEFINING THE
PROBLEM"

PROBLEM
IDENTIFICATION
A problem becomes known when a person observes a
discrepancy between the way things are and the way
things ought to be.
Problems can be identified through:
Comparative/benchmarking studies
Performance reporting - assessment of current
performance against goals and objectives
SWOT Analysis – assessment of strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, and threats
Complaints
Surveys
Etc.
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GETTING TO THE "ROOT"
OF THE PROBLEM
Sometimes the thing we think is a problem is not the real
problem, so to get at the real problem, probing is necessary
Ro o t Cause Analysis is an effective method of probing – it
helps identify what, how, and why something happened
Definition of ro o t cause :
 Specific underlying cause
 Those that can reasonably be identified
 Those that management has control to fix
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ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUE - FIVE WHY’S
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FiveWhy's refers tothepracticeof asking, fivetimes, why
theproblemexists inordertoget to theroot causeof the
problem
Why?Why? Why?Why? Why?Why? Why?Why? Why?Why?
EmployeeEmployee
turnoverturnover
rate hasrate has
beenbeen
increasingincreasing
Employees are
leaving for other
jobs
Employees are not
satisfied
Employees feel
that they are
underpaid
Other employers
are paying higher
salaries
Demand for such
employees has
increased in the
market

ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUE – FISHBONE
DIAGRAM
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The value of theThe value of the Fishbone DiagramFishbone Diagram is that it provides a methodis that it provides a method
for categorizing the many potential causes of problems or issuesfor categorizing the many potential causes of problems or issues
in an orderly way and in identifying root causesin an orderly way and in identifying root causes
Cause
Detail
Cause
Detail
Cause
Detail
Cause
Detail
Fishbone Diagram (a.k.a. Cause and Effect Diagram)Fishbone Diagram (a.k.a. Cause and Effect Diagram) is anis an
analysis tool that provides a systematic way of looking at effectsanalysis tool that provides a systematic way of looking at effects
and the causes that create or contribute to those effects.and the causes that create or contribute to those effects.
Result (Problem)

OTHER ROOT CAUSE
ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
Force Field Analysis – Visually show forces that
impact your problem or issue
Scatter Diagrams – Graphs the relationship of two
variables – quantifies the correlation, showing how
one variable influences another
Process Mapping – Maps the “as is” flow of activities
that make up a process – look for excessive
handoffs, redundancies, and other root causes of
inefficiencies
Benchmarking – Compares existing performance to
another internal or external source, identifies issues
not otherwise revealed through other techniques
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BASIC QUESTIONS TO ASK
IN DEFINING THE PROBLEM
(REGARDLESS OF THE
TECHNIQUE USED)
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Who is causing the problem?
Who says this is a problem?
Who are impacted by this
problem?
Etc.
WhoWho WhatWhat WhereWhere
WhenWhen WhyWhy HowHow
• What will happen if this problem
is not solved?
• What are the symptoms?
• What are the impacts?
• Etc.
• Where does this problem occur?
• Where does this problem have
an impact?
• Etc.
• When does this problem occur?
• When did this problem first start
occurring?
• Etc.
• Why is this problem occurring?
• Why?
• Why?
• Etc.
• How should the process or
system work?
• How are people currently
handling the problem?
• Etc.

TOOLS AND
TECHNIQUES FOR
"FORMULATING THE
HYPOTHESES"

ISSUE DIAGRAMIS AN
EFFECTIVE METHOD FOR
BREAKING DOWN
PROBLEMS AND
FORMULATING
HYPOTHESES
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ProblemProblemProblemProblem
Issue #1Issue #1Issue #1Issue #1
Hypothesis #1AHypothesis #1AHypothesis #1AHypothesis #1A
Hypothesis #1BHypothesis #1BHypothesis #1BHypothesis #1B
Hypothesis #1CHypothesis #1CHypothesis #1CHypothesis #1C
Hypothesis #1DHypothesis #1DHypothesis #1DHypothesis #1D
Key Questions #1C-aKey Questions #1C-aKey Questions #1C-aKey Questions #1C-a
Key Questions #1C-bKey Questions #1C-bKey Questions #1C-bKey Questions #1C-b
Key Questions #1C-cKey Questions #1C-cKey Questions #1C-cKey Questions #1C-c
Key Questions #1C-dKey Questions #1C-dKey Questions #1C-dKey Questions #1C-d

KEY COMPONENTS OF
ISSUE DIAGRAM
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IssuesIssues
HypothesesHypotheses
Key QuestionsKey Questions
Questions which need to be answered or
topics which need to be explored in order
to solve a problem
Speculative answers for issues that are
phrased as questions and/or areas of
exploration for issue phrased as topics
Questions that probe hypotheses and
drive the primary research required to
solve the problem

IDENTIFYING THE ISSUES
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Client wants to decide
whether they should
divest their widget X
manufacturing
business
Is there a market for
divesting this business?
Is this a cost effective
solution for the client?
What impacts will there be
for the displaced
employees?
What key topics shouldWhat key topics should
we explore to help thewe explore to help the
client solve this problem?client solve this problem?

KEY TO IDENTIFYING
ISSUES
1. Develop a comprehensive list of all possible issues related
to the problem
2. Reduce the comprehensive list by eliminating duplicates
and combining overlapping issues
3. Using consensus building, get down to a “major issues list”
(usually two to five issues)
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FORMULATING THE
HYPOTHESES
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Market Interest?
Cost
Effectiveness?
Impacts on
Employees?
Etc.Etc.Etc.Etc.
Etc.Etc.Etc.Etc.
Etc.Etc.Etc.Etc.
Divest Widget X
Business?
The market is large.
What are someWhat are some
possible answers topossible answers to
the issues?the issues?
Large percentage of
employees will likely retire
in two years.

FRAMING THE KEY
QUESTIONS
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Market Interest?
Cost Effectiveness?
Impacts on
Employees?
Divest Widget X
Business?
The market is large.
What questions need to beWhat questions need to be
answered to prove/disproveanswered to prove/disprove
the hypothesis?the hypothesis?
Large percentage of
employees will likely retire
in two years.
Key Question #1A-aKey Question #1A-aKey Question #1A-aKey Question #1A-a
Key Question #1A-bKey Question #1A-bKey Question #1A-bKey Question #1A-b
Key Question #1A-cKey Question #1A-cKey Question #1A-cKey Question #1A-c
How many players
are there in the
market?
How many are
large enough to
take on the client's
business?
How many
employees are 50
years old or older
and interested in
retiring?

COMMON PITFALLS IN
CREATING AN ISSUE
DIAGRAM
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Issues
Hypotheses
Key Questions
Issues which are:
• Too broad, which expand beyond the objectives
• Too narrow
• Too many to be easily remembered
• Of uneven weight
• Not sequenced effectively
Hypotheses which are:
• Too few to cover the issue
• Not supportable by data
• Not directly relevant to the issue
Key questions which are:
• Too few to test the hypotheses
• Irrelevant to the hypotheses
• Not answerable with data

KEY MESSAGES
Issue diagrams provide a framework for
brainstorming and documenting the issues driving
the problem and identifying the facts (i.e. data)
required to support conclusions and recommended
solutions
Hypotheses and the key questions will help shape
data collection requirements and ensure that only
relevant data is collected
Formulation of hypotheses and key questions is an
evolving process – they will need to be revised as
new insights and discoveries are made
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BRAINSTORMING – A
METHOD FOR IDENTIFYING
ISSUES AND FORMULATING
HYPOTHESES
Brainstorming is useful when there is a wide range of
possible issues and solutions
Brainstorming is not appropriate for testing an idea; it is
used to generate ideas
There are numerous brainstorming techniques, which
include group brainstorming, individual brainstorming,
and storyboarding
Individual brainstorming is usually not recommended
unless time is too tight, participants are rarely available,
group is too large, etc.
Brainstorming can be useful for Force Field Analysis –
identifying all forces impacting the problem
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TIPS FOR
BRAINSTORMING
1. State the purpose and objective of the
brainstorming course from the onset
2. Set ground rules for participants
3. Give everyone an opportunity to participate
4. Solicit all ideas and opinions – nothing is rejected
until consensus building takes place
5. After exhausting all ideas, eliminate certain
ideas, e.g. not relevant, duplicative, etc.
6. Finalize outcome of the brainstorming process
through consensus: Highest Priority, Assigning
Points, etc.
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TOOLS AND
TECHNIQUES FOR
"COLLECTING THE
FACTS"

GETTING TO THE FACTS
In order to answer the key questions and validate the
hypotheses (presented in the earlier steps), collection of
factual information is necessary
First critical steps are to identify what information, i.e.
data elements, is required and develop a data collection
approach/technique
Depending on the type of problem being solved, different
data-collection techniques may be used
Combining a number of different techniques allows
looking at problems from different perspectives
Data collection is a critical stage in problem solving - if it
is superficial, biased or incomplete, data analysis will be
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USING THE ISSUE
DIAGRAM TO IDENTIFY
DATA AND INFORMATION
NEEDS
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What information or dataWhat information or data
needs to be collected toneeds to be collected to
answer these questions?answer these questions?
How many are
large enough to
take on the client's
business?
How many
employees are 50
years old or older
and interested in
retiring?
• Number of
companies in the
industry
• Revenues for the
last 5 years
• Etc.
• Ages of the
employees
• Employee interest
level
• Etc.

DATA COLLECTION
TECHNIQUES
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Using AvailableUsing Available
InformationInformation
Using AvailableUsing Available
InformationInformation
ObservingObservingObservingObserving
InterviewingInterviewingInterviewingInterviewing
Administering WrittenAdministering Written
QuestionnairesQuestionnaires
Administering WrittenAdministering Written
QuestionnairesQuestionnaires
Conducting FocusConducting Focus
GroupsGroups
Conducting FocusConducting Focus
GroupsGroups
Using data that has already been
collected by others
Systematically selecting, watching
and recording behavior and
characteristics of people, objects or
events
Oral questioning of respondents,
either individually or as a group
Collecting data based on answers
provided by respondents in written
form
Facilitating free discussions on
specific topics with selected group
of participants
Technique
• Checklist
• Data compilation forms
Description Tools
• Eyes and ears
• Interview guide
• Survey
• Questionnaire
• Flip charts

IMPORTANCE OF
COMBINING DIFFERENT
DATA COLLECTION
TECHNIQUES
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A skillful use of a combination of qualitative and quantitativeA skillful use of a combination of qualitative and quantitative
techniques will give a more comprehensive understanding of the topictechniques will give a more comprehensive understanding of the topic
Qualitative TechniquesQualitative Techniques
(Flexible)(Flexible)
Quantitative TechniquesQuantitative Techniques
(Less Flexible)(Less Flexible)VS.
• Produce qualitative data that is often
recorded in narrative form
• Useful in answering the "why", "what",
and "how" questions
• Typically includes:
– Loosely structured interviews using
open-ended questions
– Focus group discussions
– Observations
• Structured questionnaires designed to
quantify pre- or post-categorized
answers to questions
• Useful in answering the "how many",
"how often", "how significant", etc.
questions
• Answers to questions can be counted
and expressed numerically

TOOLS AND
TECHNIQUES FOR
"CONDUCTING THE
ANALYSIS"

CONDUCTING THE
ANALYSIS
The next step in problem solving is to "make sense" of the information
collected in the previous step
There is an abundance of analytical techniques that can be applied for
understanding:
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What are the most important issues?What are the most important issues? Pareto AnalysisPareto Analysis
What forces can influence the problem?What forces can influence the problem?
What are the core competencies of the client?What are the core competencies of the client?
What performance areas are weak?What performance areas are weak?
Force Field AnalysisForce Field Analysis
SWOTSWOT
BenchmarkingBenchmarking

SPECIFIC SEQUENTIAL
STEPS THAT LEAD UP TO
THE ANALYSIS
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Make sure you know what you are trying to solve – Clearly
defined issues or questions drive the analysis!
1
2
3
Once you’ve matched up the analytical tools against the
question or issue, then go out and collect the facts
Match up the clearly defined question or issue with the
appropriate analytical tool(s)

APPLY ANALYTICAL
TOOLS AND MOVE BACK
UPSTREAM
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What analysis needs toWhat analysis needs to
be done to answer thisbe done to answer this
question?question?
How many are large
enough to take on the
client's business?
How many employees
are 50 years old or
older and interested
in retiring?
# of companies in# of companies in
industryindustry
# of companies in# of companies in
industryindustry
Revenues for last 5Revenues for last 5
yearsyears
Revenues for last 5Revenues for last 5
yearsyears
Age of employeesAge of employeesAge of employeesAge of employees
Employee interest levelEmployee interest level
in retiringin retiring
Employee interest levelEmployee interest level
in retiringin retiring
1. Start with clearly defined issues or questions
2. Select the Analytical Tool
Benchmarking
3. Collect required information per
the Analytical Tool selected
4. Once you complete your analysis, move back upstream
to answer the key question you started with

ANALYTICAL
TECHNIQUES
Benchmarking – Compare and measure a process or activity
against an internal or external source
SWOT Analysis – Assessment of strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats
Force Field Analysis – Overall environmental landscape and how it
impacts the subject
Cost Benefit Analysis – Compare total equivalent costs (all the
minuses) against equivalent value in benefits (all the pluses)
Impact Analysis – What if type analysis to assess the impact of
change on an agency
Pareto Chart – Bar Chart for categorizing issues or other
attributes in terms of importance
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BENCHMARKING
Measures and compares your performance against other similar
activities or processes internally or externally
Differences indicate possible performance issues
May be difficult to collect comparable measurement data
Comparing “best in class” performance is better than comparing average
performance
Best sources of data are in the private sector -Hays Benchmarking,
Benchmarking Exchange, The Benchmarking Exchange, etc.
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BENCHMARKING
EXAMPLE
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Air Force . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Days
Army . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Days
Canadian Army . . . . . . 145 Days
Navy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Days
Average Days for Source Selection

SWOT – STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATSIdentifies Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and
Threats by asking: What things are we good at, what
things are we not good at, what things might we do, and
what things should we not do?
Probably the most common analytical tool for strategic
planning
Somewhat subjective
Easy to understand and follow
Very useful for identifying the core competencies of any
organization
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SWOT EXAMPLE
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Internal Assessment of the organization, its people, services, competencies, etc.Internal Assessment of the organization, its people, services, competencies, etc.
External Assessment of direct and indirect forces, social, economic, political, etc.External Assessment of direct and indirect forces, social, economic, political, etc.
Client has a global infrastructure to
service all types of customers
Strengths Weaknesses
Services are in high demand in most
parts of the world
Client has limited resources for
expanding its global reach
Key processes are not very cost competitive
when compared to other service providers
Untapped demand exists in almost half
of the World
New Technologies make it possible to
expand service reach
Other clients are investing in newer
technologies
Some clients are entering into strategic
partnerships to expand their global
footprint
ThreatsOpportunities

FORCE FIELD
Visually shows significant forces that impact the problem
Forces tend to be those factors that promote or hinder a
solution to a problem
Prioritize forces between direct (more important) and indirect
(less important)
May need to brainstorm to generate ideas to list all forces
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FORCE FIELD EXAMPLE
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• Defense Department is promoting the
Balanced Scorecard
• Federal Public Sector has mandates such
as GPRA
• Lower level agencies have balanced
scorecards in place
• Strategic planning is growing in
importance within the entire public sector
Direct – More Important Indirect – Less Important
Positive Forces –
Promotes the Solution
Positive Forces –
Promotes the Solution
Problem: Agency is not strategically focusedProblem: Agency is not strategically focused
Negative Forces –
Inhibits the Solution
Negative Forces –
Inhibits the Solution
• Public Sector mandates lack enforcement
teeth – no major urgency to become
strategically focused.
• Agency is not resourced to develop
strategic plans and execute on non-
strategic issues
• Agency has too many other change
initiatives going on

COST BENEFIT
Identify all expected costs and benefits to make sure the
decision has economic merit.
Costs includes all tangible outlays (time, money, etc.) and
intangible /qualitative factors where you can assign some
value
Compare using a set of decision criteria – oranges to
oranges, apples to apples, etc.
Look at the net changes between making the decision vs.
not making the decision
Office of Management and Budget Circular A-94 provides
guidelines on how to do cost benefit analysis in the Federal
Public Sector.
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COST BENEFIT EXAMPLE
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• Software License Fees
• Upgrade network capacity
• Database development time
• Training of end-users
• Requires regular maintenance
The Costs (minuses) The Benefits (pluses)
Choice A: Proposed Solution - Design and develop an on-line database systemChoice A: Proposed Solution - Design and develop an on-line database system
• Consistent Reporting
• Reduced Data Entry
• Much faster turnarounds when
updating master records
• Improved accuracy in reporting
Choice B: Do Nothing – Status QuoChoice B: Do Nothing – Status Quo
• Software License Fees
• Maintenance Costs
• Planned Upgrades
Change in Costs Choice A – B = $ 700,000Change in Costs Choice A – B = $ 700,000 Change in Benefits Choice A – B = $ 950,000Change in Benefits Choice A – B = $ 950,000
Net Benefit =
$ 250,000
Net Benefit =
$ 250,000

IMPACT ANALYSIS
Identifies broad and diverse effects or outcomes
associated with a problem and/or the proposed
solution
Answers certain questions: How will this change
impact our agency? What are the consequences of
not acting on the problem?
Objective is to minimize adverse or negative impacts
going forward
Very useful in assessing risk of different proposed
solutions – helps you reach the right solution
Numerous tools can be used to assess impacts
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IMPACT ANALYSIS TOOLS
Scenario Playing – Storyboarding out how the future will
unfold between alternatives: Do Nothing vs. Solution
Cost Benefit Analysis - Used to quantify impacts
Decision Tree Analysis – Build a tree and assign
probabilities to each alternative to arrive at the most likely
solution
Simulation – Modeling a process and seeing how it changes
when one or more variables change
Prototype Model – Build and test the solution on a small
scale before implementation to flush out lessons learned
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PARETO ANALYSIS
Quantifies what is most important on a graph – 80 / 20 Rule
Puts focus on the significant problems or issues
Must group problems or issues based on a common and
measurable attribute (such as reworks, errors, downtime,
hours, etc.) = Left Vertical Axis of Bar Chart
Must categorize problems or issues – what type is it? (poor
quality, long wait times, etc.) = Right Horizontal Axis of Bar
Chart
Plot the data and rank according to frequency – descending
order from left to right
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PARETO CHART
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Measure
Categories Causes, Products, Mfg. Lines, Operators
Machines, Defect Types, etc.
Downtime,Errors,
#ofEmployees,etc.

KEY MESSAGES
Don’t rush out and collect information until you know what analytical tools
you need to use – each tool has its own information needs
Use a combination of tools to cover all the bases
All decisions involve some assumptions – so you will never have all the
facts
Analysis is a discover driven process, it moves incrementally in baby
steps – you learn, adjust and go through numerous iterations until you
have insights; i.e. you can now take action on the issue or problem
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TOOLS AND
TECHNIQUES FOR
"DEVELOPING THE
SOLUTION"

BASIC CONCEPTS
Select and plan the solution that has the greatest impact on
solving the problem
Use a solutions rating matrix to weigh different solutions based
on selection criteria (costs, probability of success, ease of
implementation)
Solutions should have support from your previous analysis that
you can clearly communicate to the client
Test your solutions as much as you can – use some of the
Impact Analysis Tools
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KEY MESSAGES
100% out-of-the box solutions don’t exist
No solution is a guarantee – be flexible with implementation and be
willing to revisit your requirements
Solutions rarely work unless you get buy-in and commitment from the
client – if the client refuses to accept the solution, it will not work!
Be prepared to back up your solution with an implementation plan,
complete with milestones to measure performance
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COMMON LAND MINES
THAT BLOW ANALYTICAL
THINKING APARTOnce a problem is defined, Professional students must have some
ability to develop a possible solution. If the Consultant has no
control to make recommendations for a problem, then the
problem has been defined outside the scope of the project.
The client’s definition of the problem may not be correct. The
client may lack the knowledge and experience that Professional
students have.
Since most problems are not unique, Professional students may
be able to validate the problem and possible solutions against
other sources (past projects, other experts, etc.).
The best solutions to a problem are often too difficult for the
client to implement. So be careful about recommending the
optimal solution to a problem. Most solutions require some degree
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SUMMARY
Analytical Thinking follows the Scientific Approach
Five Step Process:
- Define the Problem
- Test in the form of Hypothesis
- Focus on Facts
- Analysis (Various Analytical Tools)
- Recommend a Solution
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QUESTIONS AND
COMMENTS
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Thanks forThanks for
your participation!your participation!

A basic course on analytical thinking

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