Age Platform Conference - 4Dec14

Rising from the
ashes: the role of
older workers in
driving Eurozone
recovery
David Sinclair, International Longevity Centre-UK
@ilcuk @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.

ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today
 think tank
 evidence based
 policy focussed
 balanced
 independent
 respected
 experts
 networked
 international

Who do we work with?

Our focus is broad

Extending working lives
Explored the
role of
innovation
in extending
working
lives
Discussed
the macro-economic
importance
of
extending
working
lives
Highlighted
the
need for a
new
narrative
about
retirement.
Highlighted
the barriers
to gradual
retirement
for older
workers.
Made the
case
for focusing
on the
demand for
older
workers
Set out
the
reasons
why
people
retire
when they
do

And on EU issues

Summary
 The EU/Eurozone is going to need
older workers for future economic
growth
 “Europe” has a role to play in helping
us increase the average age of exit
from the workforce
 Europe 2020 agenda for skills and
jobs could be stronger in its support
for older workers

The Eurozone: where are we now?

Govt debt burdens continuing to rise…

Where next for the Eurozone? The longer term

Results for the Eurozone, Core and Periphery
countries
Average annual growth rate in GDP per person (2014-2050)
*All scenarios assume workforce productivity growth of 1.5% per annum over the
projected period
*Core countries are: Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, France and Luxembourg
*Periphery countries are all other Eurozone members.

In summary - What does all this say?
 The Eurozone’s economy could lose one in six workers
due to population ageing.
 Without a substantial rise in workforce productivity to
offset the anticipated fall in employment, GDP per capita
growth rates across the Eurozone may only reach 1% per
year up to 2050.
 By 2050, higher participation rates amongst the over 50s
could deliver 12.6% more economic output per person (in
real terms) than if participation rates by age remain the
same.

What factors are associated with working longer:
evidence from OECD countries

But “carrots” and not just “sticks” are needed
to support working longer

And let’s not forget the critical role of good health in
supporting longer working lives

Our economy needs older workers – but how can we
improve on the current situation?

Good news: Participation is up
Across the EU, the
employment level of older
workers has increased by
10% over the past ten
years.
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e1Btov-e1H8kd-e1H8i5-e1H7RU-e1H8ym-e1Bt2e-e1H7T7-e1H8qq-e1BtwF-e1Btc4-e1H8M3-e1BtjB-e1BsW4-
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cAsGqo-dQiX5Q-8w36Fd-fCmQeo-7GG6RH-dKD24E-9mPYKU-aeHusB-dPUVKv-dQ1xmQ/
Workers aged over 50
contributed a staggering
€2.5trn to Eurozone GDP in
2013.

Changes in Labour Force Participation of Males aged
55-64, 2002-2012

We need to learn from the best: Who “does” older
workers well?
Over 80% of men and 70% of
women aged 55-64 in Sweden
are part of the labour force.
The Labour Force Participation
of Belgians of the same age is
under 50%
Fewer than one in five women
aged 55-64 in Malta are in
work.
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Bad news: Half of 55-64 year olds across Europe are
not in work

Bad news: It is not time for complacency
 Across Europe, just under one in three of those
aged 60-64 are in employment
 Just 13% of Hungarians aged 60-64 were in work
in 2010 compared to over 60% of Swedes.
 There are still countries where fewer than 40%
of people aged 55-64 are in employment
(Slovenia, Malta, Greece, Croatia, Hungary,
Belgium and Poland in 2012).
 In one third of Member States, no more than
one out of five workers (60-64) is employed.’
 Over the period 2002-2008, the average age of
labour market withdrawal among the EU-28 had
only increased by an estimated 1.3 years, from
60.1 to 61.4
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7TYQKU-dBf26o-84k1CX-eeoG5V-eYkq5p-eYkrkr-eYkt5c-eYkqER/

What should be the priority of European
policymakers?
Achieving gender equality In every EU Member State, the life
expectancy of women is higher than that of men, by 5.9 years on
average. Yet despite living longer across the EU, women participate less
in the labour market and retire earlier.
Skilling up the older workforce The current cohort of older workers in
Europe have low levels of education and qualifications compared to
younger groups, and are more likely to have worked in agriculture and
production
Supporting older people in the recession Labour market participation is
up but so is unemployment

Unemployment rate of men aged 55-64 in 2002
and 2012

Long-term unemployed (12+months) as % of
total unemployment for people Aged 55-64 in
2012

What should be the priority of European
policymakers?
Matching demand and supply in the labour market Is Europe’s
economy creating the right jobs to meet the needs and wishes of the
supply of older workers
Tackling ageism
Improving health
Recognising the diversity of the working experience (e.g. growth in
self employed)

What more could be done under Europe 2020
 Creating more, better and more appropriate jobs for older workers
e.g. use the social fund; remove default retirement ages; creating
the right jobs.
 Not just focus on youth: Taking a life course approach to working
longer A high percentage of people aged 25-49 across Europe are in
employment (78% in 2010), and there is not significant variation
across the EU (between 70% in Spain and 85% in Sweden).
 Tackle inequalities Promote and support skill development across
the lifecourse; tackle poor health.
 Better understand and promote what works

Many thanks
David Sinclair
Director
International Longevity Centre-UK
Davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda

Age Platform Conference - 4Dec14

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Age Platform Conference - 4Dec14