2020 and beyond edited AHR 2014 - Market Research BSRIA
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The document discusses the evolving HVAC market influenced by European legislation pushing for low and zero energy houses and the growth of renewable energy technologies such as fuel cells and heat pumps. It highlights significant market movements in Europe, the U.S., and China, emphasizing China's leadership in solar thermal and heat pump markets. Additionally, it outlines the shift towards smart homes and the integration of building services in cloud-based management systems.
2020 and beyond edited AHR 2014 - Market Research BSRIA
- 1. 2020 and beyond Overlapping and merging markets Krystyna Dawson Heating & Renewables Manager BSRIA WMI
- 2. Agenda European Legislation – drive for changes Europe: New products and the growth of fuel cells Long term hvac market movements Europe & US China the engine of the world hvac market The critical players now JCI/Hitachi VRF The key players in the smart future Excellence in Market Intelligence 2 2
- 3. Drive for changes in Europe • c European Legislation National Building Regulations Pushing towards low / zero energy houses • c Ecodesign of Energy-related Products (ErP) Directive – Pushing for energy efficient products and systems • c EU Plan for Renewable Policy after 2020 EU Roadmap 2050 Pushing towards all electric future Excellence in Market Intelligence Decarbonized grid 3
- 4. Up until 2020 dfe Products / technologies reaching the market 2000 – 2008 Expansion of electric HP and Solar Thermals 2009/10 – 10 2012 2015 2017 2019 Hybrid HP Resid.FC Smart Grid Resid. Gas Energy in Micro-CHP HEMS HP Storage Europe ICE/ Stirling CO2 VRF Solar SmartSystems CO2 HP cooling Meters Launch FC (Japan) System Excellence in Market Intelligence 4 2020 + Energy Homes Integration 4
- 5. Heating Technologies 2020 Fuel Cells Japan units CAGR 2012-2016 +51% 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: Baxi/Innotech Gamma 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Germany units CAGR 2012-2016 +108% 8,000 6,000 SO FC PEM FC 4,000 2,000 0 2010 Excellence in Market Intelligence 2011 2012 5 2013 2014 2015 2016 5
- 6. Heating technologies 2020 Heat generators sales to the new dwellings (2010 / 2020) New buildings 16% 120% 100% 80% 120% 120% 2% 7% 10% 7% 100% 15% 18% 60% 40% Existing buildings 84% 0% 80% 51% 20% 1% 26% 40% 43% 48% 15% 80% 38% 2020 38% 30% 60% 25% 82% 20% 38% 2020 2010 France Solar thermals Excellence in Market Intelligence 80% 14% 1% 6% 0% 2010 Germany Heat pumps 3% 67% 0% 2010 100% 40% 16% UK Boilers 22% 40% 0% 2020 1% 17% 20% 15% 2010 1% 60% 19% 20% 0% 100% 27% 60% 81% 13% 120% Micro CHP & FC 6 2020 Italy District heating 6
- 7. Heating technologies 2020 Heat generators sales to the existing dwellings (2010 / 2020) New dwellings 16% Existing dwellings 84% 120% 120% 120% 3% 1% 100% 2% 100% 13% 100% 20% 3% 80% 60% 80% 80% 60% 120% 2% 9% 9% 99% 95% 40% 40% 9% 84% 80% 2% 9% 9% 14% 17% 60% 60% 40% 57% 14% 17% 14% 100% 82% 40% 82% 67% 67% 20% 20% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2010 2010 2020 UK Boilers 2010 2020 Germany Heat pumps 2010 France ST systems Excellence in Market Intelligence 2020 Micro CHP & FC 7 2020 Italy District heating 7
- 8. Long term HVAC North America 5.0 Furnaces (units) Millions 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Millions Air Conditioning (units) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Splits Excellence in Market Intelligence 2011 VRF 2012 2013 Chillers 8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Other AC 8
- 9. The US Unitary Market: Estimates of Sales of Residential Unitary by SEER Type Estimate of sales of unitary AC by SEER type from 2005 to 2017 based on supplier’s and distributor’s indications Source: Bsria Excellence in Market Intelligence 9 9
- 10. China still is the world factory (except for unitary)Production 2013,% by volume Excellence in Market Intelligence 10 10
- 11. Now the world’s leading consumer: (1) China solar thermal >80% of the world market ‘000 m2 100,000 > Market expected to grow by 14% and to reach 72.8 million m2 in 2013; > VT segment grows by 12% in 2013; FP by 20% > VT accounted for ~80% of the market in 2012 CAGR 2013-2016 90,000 Total Market 9.7% 80,000 70,000 Vacuum Tubes 5% 60,000 Flat Plates 23% 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Flat plate Excellence in Market Intelligence 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Vacuum tubes 11
- 12. Now the world’s leading consumer (2)China global domination of hydronic Heat pumps (Air to water and ground to water) ’000 units 1,400,000 Hydronic only > > 95% of the market in China is monobloc air-to-water Downward trend in Japan after Fukushima accident 1,200,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 1,000,000 Europe around 400,000 units 800,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 USA 600,000 400,000 200,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CHINA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 JAPAN USA Ground/ water to water Air to water –split systems Air to water –monobloc systems Exhaust air/ water (combined with heat recovery) Air to water –cylinder-integrated water heater HP Excellence in Market Intelligence 12 12
- 13. 2012 Top 20 Turnover (M€) HVAC Total Top 20 sales = €55,622mln (63% of global renewables market) Charts show 2012 total world sales value at first point of distribution in million euros. • Renewables includes sales of Heat Pumps (HP) and solar thermal (ST). Excellence in Market Intelligence 13 13
- 14. The BACS Strategy of The Leading VRF Suppliers [ 24% of sales value in 2012 represented by VRV (their proprietary term for VRF) Intelligent Touch Controller (DCS601C71) Includes a BACNet interface. 23% of sales value in 2012 represented by VRF City Multi VRF System The AG150 Mitsubishi Electric centralised controller offers a large 9 inch touch screen display with easy control of up to 50 indoor units. Includes BACNet Interface. 28% of sales value in 2012 represented by VRF 10% of sales value is VRF Types of Controllers for VRF solutions include: Already active in the regular BACS market Remote controllers Johnson Controls’ announced intention to purchase a 60% share in Hitachi’s aircon business outside of Japan could turn this from a threat into an opportunity for JCI. H-LINK and H-LINK-2 – provides communication between indoor and outdoor units Includes BACNet interface 14
- 15. FUTURE PLAYERS – (1)The ‘Smart Home’ is becoming more relevant to the Business Market HOME AUTOMATION EVOLUTION: PAST & FUTURE • • • Source: BSRIA • 15 In 2011-2012, the classical smart home system reached a new break-through Internet connectivity and the advent of the standardised multifunctional plug- &-play toolkit are well placed to put the industry on a mass consumer track, moving towards the ‘ubiquitous Home’ where sophisticated systems learn user behaviour and lifestyle. 75% of sales in Germany are to commercial market
- 16. BEMS Futures: Technological Perspectives 16
- 17. Building Services in the Cloud Market Opportunities for BEMS / BACS 4500 4000 3500 US$ 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 BEMS/BACS Monitoring & Management - in the Cloud On-site Central BEMS/BACS Monitoring & Management - Hardware & Software 20% 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 18% 16% 14% 12% BEMS/BACS Monitoring & Management - in the Cloud Penetration 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Excellence in Market Intelligence 17 17
- 18. Leaders of the future • Google’s strength in web-based and smart device technology gives it enormous potential, as does its track record of breaking into new technologies (as with acquisition of Nest Labs in January 2014. Other areas of core strength represented include: • Smart devices, appliances and HVAC :Samsung, LG, Hitachi, Fujitsu • Energy utilities: E.ON, GDF (incl. Cofely), EDF • Facility Management: Jones Lang LaSalle, Dalkia/ Veolia • Smart Vehicles Honda, Toyota, etc. Excellence in Market Intelligence Leaders in 'Smart World' Siemens Schneider… IBM Johnson Controls Microsoft Honeywell ABB Samsung Google LG Vodafone Fujitsu Hitachi NEC Panasonic Trane e.on SAP UTC… Dalkia - Veolia Honda 18
- 19. About BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence A globally recognised source of strategic market intelligence and consultancy in the building and construction industry. Air conditioning Heating Renewable Energy Smart Technology IT Excellence in Market Intelligence 19 19
- 20. Thank you Excellence in Market Intelligence 20