Alpaca VC Field Study: EV & Mobility Tech
- 1. Future Mobility Technology Landscape Q3 2022 1 alpaca.vc
- 2. DISCOVERY Interviews with a diverse group of industry participants Participating in conferences, virtual events Reading industry reports, protocol whitepapers, and other filings HYPOTHESIS TESTING Database of virtual land companies and tech companies serving the metaverse market Distillation of learnings across discovery channels SYNTHESIS & RECOMMENDATIONS Identifying high-value tech solutions across relevant industry workflows Recommending investment criteria Methodology FIELD STUDY PARTICIPANTS 2 alpaca.vc
- 3. Data Set 3 alpaca.vc Startups analyzed by business model and value proposition, and mapped to senior care technology verticals 150+
- 4. Sector Trends How Is Technology Driving The Industry? 4
- 5. The Future Of Mobility Is Here FORECASTED TIMELINE: EV market to grow to $376BN by 2025 Incumbent OEMs will launch around 300 new battery-electric vehicles (BEV) by 2025 Strong focus on medium and large vehicles 2025 FORECASTED TIMELINE: Connected vehicles will account for 100% of the market by 2035. Autonomous cars will emerge in the next 15 years, with high-driving (level 4) automation featured on 10% of new cars sold in 2035 Shared mobility offerings will account for 15% of urban trips by 2035 Electric vehicles will account for 35% of new car sales in 2035 2035 FORECASTED TIMELINE: EV sales to reach approximately 29.5% of all new car sales in 2030 from an expect roughly 3.4% in 2021 Sales increase to 4.7 million from a little more than 500,000 in 2021 ~25.19 million EVs in operation by 2030 2030 FORECASTED TIMELINE: AVs will travel about 66% of total passenger kilometers in 2040 140 million EVs in fleet by 2040 2040 5 alpaca.vc
- 6. Investors have spent nearly $330bn on mobility technologies, with two-thirds going to autonomous technology and smart mobility Investment Landscape 6 alpaca.vc Source: McKinsey
- 7. Incumbent OEMs And Development Timeline OEMs are expected to embrace electric mobility more widely in the 2020s. Notably 18 of the 20 largest OEMs (in terms of vehicles sold in 2020), which combined accounted for almost 90% of all worldwide new car registrations in 2020, have announced intentions to increase the number of available models and boost production of electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs). Significantly, some OEMs plan to reconfigure their product lines to produce only electric vehicles. In the first-trimester of 2021 these announcements included: Volvo will only sell electric cars from 2030; Ford will only electric car sales in Europe from 2030; General Motors plans to offer only electric LDVs by 2035; Volkswagen aims for 70% electric car sales in Europe, and 50% in China and the United States by 2030; and Stellantis aims for 70% electric cars sales in Europe and 35% in the United States. Overall, the announcements by the OEMs translate to estimated cumulative sales of electric LDVs of 55-72 million by 2025. 7 alpaca.vc
- 8. 1054 735 588 402 396 334 163 154 144 141 131 119 105 100 1156 Tesla Model 3 Chevy Bolt Nissan LEAF Tesla Model Y Tesla Model S Chevy Volt BMW i3 Kia Niro Toyota Prius Prime Tesla Model X VW ID4 Ford Mustang Mach E Honda Clarity Audi e-tron All Others Incumbent OEMs And Development Timeline VEHICLE TESLA MODEL 3 CHEVY BOLT NISSAN LEAF TESLA MODEL Y TESLA MODEL S CHEVY BOLT BMW i3 KIA NIRO TOYOTA PRIUS PRIME TESLA MODEL X VW ID.4 FORD MUSTANG MACH-E HONDA CLARITY AUDI E-TRON MOST EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE RELIABILITY PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE RELIABILITY PERFORMANCE SAFETY FEATURES RELIABILITY SAFETY FEATURES COMFORT STYLING AND APPEARANCE EASE OF CHARGING COMFORT According to a survey conducted by Power In America, the Tesla Model 3 was the most frequently cited vehicle, accounting for 18% of responses. The next most common EVs were the Nissan LEAF and the Chevy Bolt. Of those who purchased their EVs (as opposed to building or converting), 80% reported purchasing them new, while 20% bought them used. "Range" and "navigation system" had the most frequent ratings of "unsatisfactory” on the survey. 8 alpaca.vc
- 9. NORWAY NETHERLANDS SWEDEN UNITED KINGDOM SWITZERLAND CANADA PORTUGAL ITALY INDIA FRANCE SOUTH KOREA UNITED STATES GERMANY JAPAN CHINA OVERALL ELECTRIC VEHICLE INDEX (EVI) RESULTS, score (range from low of 0 to high of 5) Market EVI Industry EVI 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 LOW HIGH HIGH Source: McKinsey Analysis EV Global Market Positions alpaca.vc 1. Norway 2. Netherlands 3. China 4. Sweden 5. United Kingdom 6. Switzerland 7. United States 8. Canada 9. Portugal 10. France 11. Germany 12. South Korea 13. Japan 14. Italy 15. India MARKETING EVI RANKING 1. China 2. Japan 3. Germany 4. United States 5. South Korea 6. France 7. India 8. Italy INDUSTRY EVI RANKING According to McKinsey, the EVI explores two important dimensions of electric mobility: MARKET DEMAND analyzes the share of EVs in the overall market, as well as factors affecting EV penetration in each country, such as incentives (for instance, subsidies), existing infrastructure, and the range of available EVs. INDUSTRY SUPPLY explores the share of a country’s OEMs in the production of EVs and EV components, such as e-motors and batteries, looking at both current and projected numbers. The EVI assesses the key performance indicators in each country and rates them on a scale from 0 to 5 for every dimension. These scores serve as the basis for the final country ranking. NORWAY LEADS ELECTRIC-VEHICLE ADOPTION ON THE MARKET SIDE, WHILE CHINA EXCELS ON THE INDUSTRY SIDE. 1 2 9
- 10. EV vs. ICE (TCO Comparison) The future looks bright for electric-vehicle (EV) growth. Consumers are more willing than ever to consider buying EVs, and sales are rising fast. But manufacturers face a cost gap of ~$12,000 between EVs and internal combustion-engine vehicles today. Battery costs represent the largest single factor in this price differential. As industry battery prices decline, perhaps five to seven years from now, the economics of EVs should shift from red to green. 10 alpaca.vc
- 11. Market Opportunity for EV Charging Focus On Commercial Installations And Extend To Residential In The Future Expand To Fleet Charging In The Future Bigger Market Potential Beyond 2030 TAM BY 2030 Global Market for Level 2 & DFFC Hardware SAM BY 2030 Market Potential in North America SOM BY 2030 Commercial Applications in North America > $130Bn > $50Bn > $1.5Bn 11 alpaca.vc
- 12. Critical Challenges To Consumers And Fleet Managers CONSUMERS FLEET MANAGERS Price - 38% Range – 20% Charge Time – 27% Vehicle Size/Type – 4% Infrastructure – 11% Charge time – 9% Range – 34% Vehicle Size/Type – 22% Range – 15% Infrastructure – 20% 1 2 alpaca.vc
- 13. EV Adoption for Fleets – Volvo LIGHTS Volvo is one of the first major truck manufacturers to announce plans to commercialize battery electric trucks in North America. The company has experience manufacturing battery electric trucks and buses for the European market and now is applying its expertise to ensure its electric trucks provide the power, performance, and reliability that fleet operators need and expect Over a three-year project period, Volvo LIGHTS will demonstrate the ability for Class 8 battery electric trucks and equipment to reliably move freight between Los Angeles’ two major ports and warehouses throughout the region with less noise and zero emissions. The Volvo LIGHTS project includes innovations in both electric truck technology and EV charging solutions for heavy-duty vehicles. Public and Private Organizations Collaborating Battery Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks Battery Electric Equipment Public and Private Chargers Electric Truck After Market Service Centers Colleges Designing Electric Truck Maintenance Programs Solar Energy Generation Ports Providing Infrastructure Planning VOLVO LIGHTS BY THE NUMBERS 16 23 29 58 2 1.8 2 2 13 alpaca.vc
- 14. EV Technology 14
- 15. EV Charging Station Infrastructure Overview HARDWARE EV chargers (Level1, Level 2, DCFC) Electrical infrastructure SOFTWARE Tracking, managing and optimizing EV charging OCPP certification API integration Grid control SERVICES Partner training On-site intervention Preventative maintenance Warranty service Remote firmware updates Automated billing Charging management platform integration Installation and commissioning There are massive market opportunities in Future Mobility & EV Charging. How can investors capture them? 15 alpaca.vc Smart Parking & Charging
- 16. COMPONENTS OF A CHARGING STATION EV Charging Station Infrastructure The global electric vehicle charging station market size is projected to grow from 2,115 thousand units in 2020 to 30,758 thousand units by 2027, indicating a paradigm shift from conventional vehicles to electric vehicles. Developing adequate EV Charging infrastructure to cater to the rising demand for EVs on the road is the need of the hour. Utilizing renewable sources of energy like solar and wind, and vehicle to grid (V2G) or Bidirectional chargers are steps in this direction. On the other hand, to reduce range anxiety among EV owners and to make using EV chargers easier, wireless charging of electric vehicles is also creating a buzz in the automotive marketspace THE FUTURE Battery Power Conversion System Software SOFTWARE: Electric Vehicle Charging Software is an integral part of EV charging infrastructure. It helps charge point operators and e-mobility service providers to manage EV charging stations and their customers. EV charging software (web or mobile based) helps in managing the EV chargers at charging stations. Some of the key features of the EV charging software are: connect and monitor the charger, automatic fault detection, live meter display, billing and payments, track costs, manage users, interactive dashboard, and more POWER CONVERSION SYSTEM: The power conversion system for the EV charging station comprises an inverter, its enclosure, and thermal management (HVAC) for batteries to maintain the battery at a specific temperature BATTERY: At EV charging stations, the batteries are primarily lithium-ion batteries, consisting of cells, packs, battery management system (BMS) to manage control of the charge and discharge of the battery 16 alpaca.vc
- 17. 3-5 miles per hour 120-volt VAC outlet Comes with almost all EVs Available in all residential and commercial locations No infrastructure upgrade required Low installation cost $0.20-0.25 per kWh Level 2 10-50 miles per hour 240-volt VAC Same connector and charge port as Level 1 Networked (EVCS) and nonnetworked charging Infrastructure upgrade required $30K-60K installation cost/charger $0.20-0.40 per kWh Level 1 DCFC Fast Charging 75-300 miles per hour 480 VAC converted to DC Highway corridors, retail shops, hospitality and dedicated charging depots Infrastructure upgrade required >$100,000 installation cost/charger $0.27-0.40 per kWh EV Hardware 17 alpaca.vc
- 18. Cost Recovery Incentivizes Future EV Adoption REDUCED FUELING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS EV costs ~$0.06/mile vs. ICE vehicle costs ~$0.16/mile (almost 3x) A vehicle that travels 10,000 miles/year, this represents a cost savings of ~$1,000/ year No oil change, spark plug, and air filter replacements INCENTIVES AND TAX CREDITS Incentive programs and tax credits can help property owners recover upfront costs of installing EV charging Air pollution control districts (APCDs) and electric utilities are common sources for rebate Incentive availability changes frequently EVSE can be depreciated like any other business asset, reducing tax liability LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARD (LCFS) CREDITS California Air Resources Board created the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Encourages the use of less carbon-intensive transportation fuels, i.e. electricity Sale of LCFS credits provides additional revenue to offset cost of EV charging stations Businesses may sell LCFS credits for themselves, or cede credits to EV service provider 18 alpaca.vc
- 19. IN-TRANSIT Board network coverage Capacity, quality and speed Easy search and booking Convenient access and building DESTINATION: HOTEL, CASINO, SPORTS VENUES Easy access, attractive pricing Easy search and booking Availability at high demand locations Charging speed HOME Practical, affordable Convenient installation Track energy consumption Integrate into local energy infrastructure Customer EV Charging Needs Have Shifted… 19 alpaca.vc
- 20. Chargers Are Here But Not In Every State… Source: EVAdoption Source: EVAdoption 20 alpaca.vc 2021 US DC FAST CHARGER GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE 2018 Number of DCFC Ports: 2017-2021 ’17-21 248% Growth! US REACHES 91,000+ LEVEL 2 CHARGES Number of Level 2 Charging Ports & Locations 2.7 per location DCFC Chargers Level 2 Chargers
- 21. LEVEL 2 PORTS 47,114 14,677 10,519 5,802 3,158 2,774 2,309 2,199 626 563 464 440 188 174 % OF TOTAL 51.50% 16.00% 11.50% 6.30% 3.40% 3.00% 2.50% 2.40% 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% 0.20% NETWORK ChargePoint Network Tesla Destination Non-Networked SemmaConnect Network Blink Network EV Connect Greenlots (Now Shell Recharge) Volta POWERFLEX OpConnect eVgo Network FLO LIVINGSTON AMPUP Electrify America EVCS FCN EVGATEWAY Webasto ZEFNET CHARGELAB 152 141 85 81 60 8 5 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 DC Fast Chargers (Ports) 47,114 14,677 10,519 5,802 3,158 2,774 2,309 626 563 464 440 188 174 % OF TOTAL 58.00% 14.40% 7.90% 7.70% 4.20% 2.50% 2.20% 0.80% 0.80% 0.70% 0.30% 0.10% 0.10% CHARGING NETWORK Tesla Electrify America EVgo Network ChargePoint Network Non-Networked Francis Energy Greenlots (Now Shell Recharge) EV Connect EVCS Blink Network Webasto EVGATEWAY OpConnect Volta FPLEV POWERFLEX ZEFNET Electrify Canada FLO 152 141 85 81 60 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Source: EVAdoption 97% 85% 85% Level 2 Chargers DCFC Chargers Chargers Are Here But Not In Every State (Cont’d)… 21 alpaca.vc
- 22. IN-TRANSIT As of September 31, 2021, there were 2,147,070 electric vehicles (BEV and PHEV) in the United States and 109,307 charger ports 80% of all EV chargers are currently Level 2 chargers The median EVs to charger ratio was 14.2 Chargers Are Here But Not In Every State (Cont’d)… 22 alpaca.vc
- 23. EV Electrification Startup Landscape BOTH HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE: EV CHARGING NETWORK: Tesla, Chargepoint, Xeal, Blink, TeraWatt EV CHARGER SUPPLIERS: SemaConnect, ABB, EVBox SOFTWARE ONLY Weave Grid, EV Connect, Electriphi, Amply Power, SWTCH, AmpUp HARDWARE ONLY Volta, Clipper Creek, AutoX CHARGING STATIONS Allego, WattLogic, Chargefox, Chargehub OTHER E-PRODUCTS SERVICES: Evercharge (load management); HZO (electron protection) ; ChargeMap 23 alpaca.vc Next Future Transportation, Scooterson, Kuhmute, Zero Motorcycles
- 24. Hardware Only Hardware + SaaS Charger Reliability / Connectivity Charging Networks With Renewable Energy EV Charging Hardware Trends Innovation around connectivity Sustainable off-grid solar panel EV chargers (BEAM) V2G 24 alpaca.vc
- 25. FLEET MANAGEMENT CHARGING NETWORKS CHARGING STATION MANAGEMENT NETWORK MAPPING EV Charging Software Trends “To get software out there, need to play the hardware game. Everyone is giving away free chargers” - Founder CEO Zhongyi Quan 25 alpaca.vc
- 26. EV Charging Stations Where are the real estate opportunities? Real estate opportunities: partner with existing buildings or locate premier real estate to build turnkey charger 26 alpaca.vc Equipment Supply The Hardware Systems Specialist Site Ownership Asset Ownership Charge Point Operation E-mobility Services The Installer The Owner The Aggregator (e-MSPs) The Software Platform Player Vertical Specialists Integrators The Turnkey Provider Typically Indirect Focus (orchestrates partners) Ownership Installation & Field Services Typically Indirect Focus (sources from partners) Typically Direct Focus (provides in-house) The E2E Integrator (CPOs)
- 27. An example helps illustrate a technology stack for an autonomous vehicle. Appendix – AV tech stack 27 alpaca.vc
- 28. Appendix – Global EV Registration and Market Share 28 alpaca.vc
- 29. Appendix – Global EV Registration and Market Share Electric Car Registrations and Market Share in Selected Countries, 2015-2020 Electric Car Registrations and Market Share in North-Western European Region, 2015-2020 29 alpaca.vc
- 30. EV Adoption Five Main Roadbumps Price Range 1 Charge Time 2 Range 3 Charging Infrastructure 4 Vehicle Choice 5 30 alpaca.vc
- 31. Ratio of Public Chargers per EV Stock by Country, 2020 ESV PER EV 31 alpaca.vc
- 32. Future Mobility Technology Landscape Q3 2022 32