An Overview of the US Downstream Project Landscape
1 like638 views
The document provides an overview of global oil demand versus refinery capacity builds from 2014-2020, highlighting active construction projects in refining, gas processing, LNG, and petrochemical industries. It outlines total announced downstream project investments by region and includes market share analysis of new projects, particularly in the Gulf Coast area, where a significant percentage of active projects are concentrated. Additionally, it covers specific LNG export terminal projects and capacity builds for petrochemicals and ammonia-urea plants, reflecting industry trends and projected developments through 2020.
An Overview of the US Downstream Project Landscape
- 4. Global oil demand vs. refinery capacity builds (2014‐2020) 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Global Refining Capacity Global Oil Demand
- 8. Total new project announcements by region, February 2013‐present. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Africa Asia‐Pacific Canada Europe* Latin America Middle East US 2013 2014 2015 *Europe includes Eastern Europe, Russia and the CIS
- 9. Total new project announcements by region and sector, 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Africa Asia‐Pacific Canada Europe Latin America Middle East US Refining Petrochemical Gas Processing/LNG
- 11. Gulf Coast new project market share, 2015‐present US vs. Gulf Coast US Non‐Gulf Coast US Gulf Coast 64% 36% 9 17 46 7 9 17 36 151 15 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5 new projects active projects
- 19. • Over 330 MMtpy of LNG capacity announced • US DOE non‐FTA approvals: • Sabine Pass LNG • Freeport LNG • Lake Charles Exports (Trunkline) • Dominion Cove Point LNG • Jordan Cove (Coos Bay) • Cameron LNG • Oregon LNG • Corpus Christi LNG • Crowley (formerly Carib Energy) • Alaska LNG (conditional) • American LNG • The billion‐dollar question: What will be built? US LNG export terminal projects
- 20. US LNG capacity online by 2020 = @ 58 MMtpy 2016 = 9 MMtpy • Sabine Pass Trains 1 & 2 2017 = 14.5 MMtpy • Sabine Pass Trains 3 & 4 (late 2016 thru mid/late 2017) • Dominion Cove LNG Train 1 2018 = 25.4 MMtpy • Cameron LNG Trains 1, 2, 3 • Freeport LNG Train 1 • Corpus Christi LNG Trains 1 & 2 2019 = 8.8 MMtpy • Freeport LNG Trains 2 & 3 Sabine Pass LNG project Cove Point LNG project
- 23. Active US methanol projects Company Location Capacity Cost, US $ MM Announced start‐up Methanex – Geismar I Geismar, LA 1 MMtpy 550 Completed 2015 Methanex – Geismar II Geismar, LA 1 MMtpy 550 Completed 2016 OCI (Natgasoline) Beaumont, TX 1.75 MMtpy 1,000 4Q 2016 Valero Norco, LA 1.6 MMtpy 700 2018 (delayed) NWIW – Port of Kalama Port of Kalama, WA 3.65 MMtpy 1,800 4Q 2019 NWIW – Port of St. Helens Port of St. Helens, OR 3.65 MMtpy 1,800 2021 NWIW – Tacoma Tacoma, WA 7.3 MMtpy 3,400 2021 – Phase 1 (on hold) South Louisiana Methanol St. James Parish, LA 1.825 MMtpy 1,300 2Q 2017 (delayed) Celanese/Mitsui Clear Lake, TX 1.3 MMtpy 800 Completed 4Q 2015 Celanese Bishop, TX 1.3 MMtpy 700‐800 2018 CCI Braithwaite, LA 1.825 MMtpy 1,200 2019 Yuhuang Chemical (Plant 1) St. James Parish, LA 1.7 MMtpy 1,000 2018 Yuhuang Chemical (Plant 2) St. James Parish, LA 1.3 MMtpy 1,000 2020 Conell Group‐Chemical Inv. Corp. JV Shoal Point, TX 7.2 MMtpy 4,500 2020+
- 24. PDH • Ethane cracking produces less propylene as opposed to naphtha cracking • Over 2 MMtpy of new PDH capacity is under construction or being evaluated • Total investment = +$5 B should projects be completed • Projects include: Company Capacity Location Flint Hills 600 Mtpy Texas – completed 2010 Dow Chemical 750 Mtpy Texas – completed 4Q 2015 Enterprise 750 Mtpy Texas Formosa Plastics 725 Mtpy Texas Ascend Performance Materials 1 MMtpy Texas – searching for partners Sunoco Logistics 650 Mtpy Pennsylvania – evaluating REXtac 450 Mtpy Who knows? Aerial view of Dow’s Oyster Creek PDH unit
- 25. Ammonia‐Urea plant capacity build‐out • Over $16 B in new ammonia‐urea plant capacity • Down from $20 B (CHS & EuroChem) • 2016 – year of the fertilizer build‐out • Total capacity could top 12 MMtpy by 2020 should all projects be built